China - Geostrategic & Geopolitical.

[Ananda]

Thank you for educating me the difference between unilateral western sanctions versus UN sanctions.

Really?? Could you at least shown when Russian sanctions from West already UN sanctions ? If you don't want to be educated on that area, and stop implying the Chinese tankers build up is for doing illegal thing.

I don't support China policy, but really where in this article saying that what Chinese building the tankers is for support illegal activity? I know it is Chinese thread, but you are the one that bring article talking on Chinese tankers doing Russian transportation. So where the illegal on that??

Please give enlightenment on the illegal activities on Chinese tankers. Again all this because you implied Chinese tankers going to be use for illegal activities. All I counter is where the illegal activities that you talking about??

All I can see is this tankers going potentially use against West/US Security and Commercial rivalry. No argue on that, but what's the illegal on that?

 

[koxinga]

All I can see is this tankers going potentially use against West/US Security and Commercial rivalry. No argue on that, but what's the illegal on that?

Nothing "illegal" if the purpose is solely the underlined. And yes, there is nothing "illegal", relative to UN sanctions in trading with Russian oil, since it is only a number of countries (primarily Western aligned) that has chosen to declare the trading of Russian products to be "illegal". The situation is the same with Iran, since the said "sanctions" are US led, and not universal (declared by UN).

Within their sovereign right to decide who they want to trade with, although grey area when they apply indirect pressure to third parties who do not share their political views or who simply have not much economic alternatives. E.g usually the poorer / developing countries.

The article has two parts, China receiving and executing on shipbuilding orders from known shadow fleet operators and Chinese tankers as a potential strategic aid for PLAN for any long term conflict. On that point (article), I will concede that it does not mention Chinese operating shadow fleets.

However, it does not change my view on the nature of these fleets. A fleet has to be "shadow" only for two purpose as far as I can tell, (1) to avoid mandatory inspections and hence subject to potential western notice, due to financing, insurance and registration (2) potential illegal activities, e.g from true sanctioned entities like North Korea.

I guess your question is whether there is actual evidence of the latter? I concede that I do not have direct evidence that the Chinese are involved and a number of individuals from countries such as Singapore, South Korea has been found to be involved. That said, shadow fleets of these nature can be easily exploited for this purpose.

Japan Ministry of Defense

www.mod.go.jp

 

[Ananda]

guess your question is whether there is actual evidence of the latter? I concede that I do not have direct evidence that the Chinese are involved and a number of individuals from countries such as Singapore, South Korea has been found to be involved. That said, shadow fleets of these nature can be easily exploited for this purpose.

Thank you for the admitting that. Look this build up of Tankers can be and will be use by the Chinese for sole purpose of their strategic intentions. Their strategic intentions will be only for China interest and will not be on the interest of US/West and allies in Asia Pacific. No doubt about that.

However potential on China using this for support North Korea trade logistics is different then China using (that clearly being done already) for Russia, which is not (yet) illegal under UN approve sanctions as you have put.

Again my challenge only on the implies on illegal activities, that you previously put. Which basically China has not doing it (yet) with their Tankers. China so far still try to be carefull not to cross the UN lines. They will cross the US/West lines (if they see it is) against their strategic interests. Trading with Russia is their strategic interest (at least this moment), and they will use those Tankers to support that.

China for me personally some day in futures can be adversary to my country, but it is also may not be. China can potentially push their strategic interest with arms to their neigbours, but also potentially won't do it. China is still 50:50 as strategic threats for most their non western allies neighbors. Realizing that, also I don't see China will breaching UN approved sanctions, as it is seems not in their strategic interest. It's different then breaching Western lead sanctions.

 

[Ananda]

Chinese Firm's 'Breakthrough' 28nm Chipmaking Tool to Debut Soon: Report

SMEE reportedly makes significant lithography breakthrough.

www.tomshardware.com

News on Chinese indigenous litography machines. Something that's still China achilles heels on semi conductor. Litography is the tech that Biden administration push Netherlands and Japan to block China chip foundries on accessing. Hoping to block Chinese market share development.

It is still 28nm, but it is leap from SMEE previous 90nm Litography machines. Netherlands and Japanese Litography already playing on 14nm and recently 7nm. They are now aim to 3nm. Still most devices work on 28nm - 90 NM semiconductor which Chinese foundries have large market share globally.

China so far shown continue abilities toward catching on cutting edge tech. It is going to be interesting seing how US blocks going to work against Chinese tech development.

 

[InterestedParty]

CNN is reporting that the UAE and China are holding joint air force exercises in Xinjiang in August

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/08/14/middleeast/china-arab-gulf-states-cooperation-mime-intl/index.html

As the owner of a large fleet of US aircraft, though, I think not the F35, this would seem to be a wonderful intelligence opportunity for the PRC.
Would it be possible for an operator of the F35 to take them to China or to hold exercises somewhere else with China, perhaps South Africa? Would the US be able to prevent it?
Pilots at these exercises all get a close up look at the opposition aircraft.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

As the owner of a large fleet of US aircraft, though, I think not the F35, this would seem to be a wonderful intelligence opportunity for the PRC.

The UAEAF actually has more French than US aircraft. It may be that they send Mirages for the exercise.

Would it be possible for an operator of the F35 to take them to China or to hold exercises somewhere else with China, perhaps South Africa? Would the US be able to prevent it?

If a country conducted exercises with the PLA using F-35s against the US' wishes, it would be a fast route to having an arms embargo placed on it by Congress.

 

[neat]

Yeh, I don't think that is it.

Pakistan big problem is rampant corruption, constant military coups, and near failed state status, not its religion. There have been some semi stable periods where the west has had fairly strong links to Pakistan. Much to the annoyance of India.

India is an obvious counter balance to China.
But I am pretty sure plenty in the west know that India is a complex geopolitical animal and brings their own issues and concerns with them. But that is also counterbalanced by their own internal issues and situations.

I also think people are overstating the power of the G7, which is one of the most irrelevant entities to have ever existed. The rise and fall of nations geopolitically can often be attributed to how badly the US needs or has interest in them and there importance globally. Its not like the Italian prime minister announces at the G7 conference "India! We can counter balance China with India" and all the other heads of state nod knowingly and then a charter is announced that India is the new hot thing. G7 should probably evaporate, G20 is more relevant.

India has their own thing going on, and has never sought to have a particularly close relationship with the Americans. India is non-aligned and famously so with very active relationship with Russia. India's presence in the Quad doesn't perhaps unwind that, but probably represents a portion of Russia, who has their own concerns about China.

Places like Nepal are classic examples of how little traditional "global powers" like the US and Russia play in some areas. They are almost non-existent in Nepal, like barely in the top 10 players in that space which is dominated by China, India, Pakistan, the far further down, Arab states, South East Asian states, western countries (combined).


BRICS isn't a thing IMO. It weilds no significant power as an entity. There isn't a whole lot that unifies them. On any issue you are likely to get 5 different answers. But shows a nice scale of developing states along some sort of continuum of functioning state to failed state.

South Africa? As a balance against western dominance? I will strap myself down for that one.

Its more absurd than saying MITKA is going to be the next global power and challenge western dominance? At least its a bunch of like minded, functional middle powers that can get along with each other.

I agree, the constant military coups and jaunta is the real problem in the Pakistan India theatre, and has led to disastrous wars for Pakistan History of Pakistan vs. India Wars and who won them - How 2 Have Fun

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

|"India protested after Beijing released the map showing north-eastern Arunachal Pradesh state and the disputed Aksai Chin plateau as China's territory.
Beijing responded by saying its neighbours should refrain from "over-interpreting" the issue.

India is not the only country to object to the map - on Thursday, the Philippines and Malaysia issued protests against China's claim of ownership over most of the South China Sea in the map. Taiwan - which China says is a breakaway province that will eventually be under Beijing's control - also objected to its inclusion in the map."|

With other words, the other countries shouldn't be worried and stay calm, because china only regards a part of their territory as its own.

China tells India to 'stay calm' in border map row

India is angry at a new Chinese map which it says lays claim to its territory in the Himalayas.

www.bbc.com

And now more internal news.
After the Tibetans and Uyghurs got the blessings of cultural genocide, now the Mongols of Inner-Mongolia are the chosen ones.

Mongools teruggedrongen in Chinese regio Binnen-Mongolië, 'dit is culturele genocide'

Drie jaar geleden waren er grote protesten tegen het beperken van Mongools op scholen in de autonome regio Binnen-Mongolië.

nos.nl

The communist chinese government has decided that the Mongol language should be completely removed from the schools in inner-Mongolia, in order to make the Mongols more chinese, and with that to make them more civilized.

There was a lot of critic and many parents protested against the systematic wiping out of their language and culture, but the communist chinese government friendly convinced the Inner-Mongols to embrace the fact that obeying the chinese communist party will enlighten them,...the lucky guys.

After all, only primitive savages will reject that their own culture and language are being erased.

 

[Ananda]

Saudi Arabia, US Sign Agreement To Establish Green Transit Corridor

Saudi Arabia and the United States on Friday signed a bilateral memorandum of understanding (MoU) for establishing intercontinental green transit corridors through the Kingdom to connect the continent of Asia with the continent of Europe.

www.ndtv.com

Well at least US begin to walk the walk. This "Transit Corridor" between Europe-Middle East-India, clearly initiative to compete with China Road and Belt. Like I said in other thread, US/West rather then complaining on China Infrastructure initiatives in Global South, outbid them. Build something to compete.

China Road and Belt initiative going to Central Asia then branch out to Pakistan and with sea going to Middle East and then Europe. The other branch going to Central Asia then Caucasus to Europe (at least present route). This US lead initiative clearly going to build as direct competitor transit lines.

Good for countries that being build the lines with. They are now have two competiting transit lines. Competition good for business. At least now US understands, don't complain on China initiatives in Global South, shown the money and outbid China. Global South need Investment not talks.

 

[Arji]

Saudi Arabia, US Sign Agreement To Establish Green Transit Corridor

Saudi Arabia and the United States on Friday signed a bilateral memorandum of understanding (MoU) for establishing intercontinental green transit corridors through the Kingdom to connect the continent of Asia with the continent of Europe.

www.ndtv.com

Well at least US begin to walk the walk. This "Transit Corridor" between Europe-Middle East-India, clearly initiative to compete with China Road and Belt. Like I said in other thread, US/West rather then complaining on China Infrastructure initiatives in Global South, outbid them. Build something to compete.

China Road and Belt initiative going to Central Asia then branch out to Pakistan and with sea going to Middle East and then Europe. The other branch going to Central Asia then Caucasus to Europe (at least present route). This US lead initiative clearly going to build as direct competitor transit lines.

Good for countries that being build the lines with. They are now have two competiting transit lines. Competition good for business. At least now US understands, don't complain on China initiatives in Global South, shown the money and outbid China. Global South need Investment not talks.

How much do you want to bet this is all going to fall apart when the Republican win the next presidency?

 

[Ananda]

How much do you want to bet this is all going to fall apart when the Republican win the next presidency?

Depends on whose going to come from Republican I guess. Not all Republican are Trump. Who knows another Reagan come out.

 

[Arji]

Depends on whose going to come from Republican I guess. Not all Republican are Trump. Who knows another Reagan come out.

Trump is a bit special in that his policy is arguably pro-Russian when it comes to Ukraine, which is not found in most Republican, outside the real extreme ones. But, I believe most Republican never like the idea of spending tax money outside the states if it's not for something related to defense and security. Sure, there might be another Reagan, but the odds is not good in my opinion.

 

[Ananda]

But, I believe most Republican never like the idea of spending tax money outside the states if it's not for something related to defense and security. Sure, there might be another Reagan, but the odds is not good in my opinion

Well, I guess this is just too big 'if' at this moment. Also this initiative still new, but personally I suspect US will try to sell and bring Their own, Euro and Saudis businesses to finance this. The details of the scheme still not clear yet, especially how to finance this.

However as this is one of counter move to Chinese Road and Belt, I do sense they are going to sell to domestics as part of strategic move. I can't speculate much, and this can move more to US domestic politics, which's getting murkier this days, and modes in this forum not really like we ventured much on that area. That's I agree because too much 'if' speculation this time around.

Still for me, if US/West don't outbid China initiatives drives with their own counter initiatives, then they're going to losing their 'influence' in much of Global South. Like I said, Global South need Investment and not talk. So let's see how US domestics react on this.

 

[John Fedup]

Well, I guess this is just too big 'if' at this moment. Also this initiative still new, but personally I suspect US will try to sell and bring Their own, Euro and Saudis businesses to finance this. The details of the scheme still not clear yet, especially how to finance this.

However as this is one of counter move to Chinese Road and Belt, I do sense they are going to sell to domestics as part of strategic move. I can't speculate much, and this can move more to US domestic politics, which's getting murkier this days, and modes in this forum not really like we ventured much on that area. That's I agree because too much 'if' speculation this time around.

Still for me, if US/West don't outbid China initiatives drives with their own counter initiatives, then they're going to losing their 'influence' in much of Global South. Like I said, Global South need Investment and not talk. So let's see how US domestics react on this.

I agree this initiative is a good approach but I do suspect a significant portion of the shallow thinkers in the GOP will not support it and depending on the US economic situation down the road, voter support is questionable as 2024 looms.

 

[Volkodav]

|"India protested after Beijing released the map showing north-eastern Arunachal Pradesh state and the disputed Aksai Chin plateau as China's territory.
Beijing responded by saying its neighbours should refrain from "over-interpreting" the issue.

India is not the only country to object to the map - on Thursday, the Philippines and Malaysia issued protests against China's claim of ownership over most of the South China Sea in the map. Taiwan - which China says is a breakaway province that will eventually be under Beijing's control - also objected to its inclusion in the map."|

With other words, the other countries shouldn't be worried and stay calm, because china only regards a part of their territory as its own.

China tells India to 'stay calm' in border map row

India is angry at a new Chinese map which it says lays claim to its territory in the Himalayas.

www.bbc.com

And now more internal news.
After the Tibetans and Uyghurs got the blessings of cultural genocide, now the Mongols of Inner-Mongolia are the chosen ones.

Mongools teruggedrongen in Chinese regio Binnen-Mongolië, 'dit is culturele genocide'

Drie jaar geleden waren er grote protesten tegen het beperken van Mongools op scholen in de autonome regio Binnen-Mongolië.

nos.nl

The communist chinese government has decided that the Mongol language should be completely removed from the schools in inner-Mongolia, in order to make the Mongols more chinese, and with that to make them more civilized.

There was a lot of critic and many parents protested against the systematic wiping out of their language and culture, but the communist chinese government friendly convinced the Inner-Mongols to embrace the fact that obeying the chinese communist party will enlighten them,...the lucky guys.

After all, only primitive savages will reject that their own culture and language are being erased.

Is it just me or does that all sound very "imperialistic".

I am starting to understand why some very smart people are pointing out the world is heading to a new wave of imperialism and those desiring it aren't so much attacking democracy as trying to rid the world of enlightenment.

 

[swerve]

China's very imperialist. It's laying claim to anywhere that's ever paid tribute, or which Chinese fishermen ever landed on, or fished in.

It's as if the UK was still laying claim to New York, or India.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

China's very imperialist. It's laying claim to anywhere that's ever paid tribute, or which Chinese fishermen ever landed on, or fished in.

It's as if the UK was still laying claim to New York, or India.

For them "South China Sea" is already a reason to claim the whole sea and surrounding area.

"which Chinese fishermen ever landed on, or fished in."

Remember, some years ago the Argentine coast guard chased away chinese fishing boats from Argentina's EEZ. So be prepared...

 

[swerve]

From Argentina's EEZ - but China insists that rocks & shoals can not be a basis for claims of territorial waters & EEZs - except those in the South China Sea, which China says not only have territorial waters & an EEZ, but the EEZ is completely owned by China (i.e. more like territorial waters), & China's "EEZ" extends right up to the territorial waters of other countries & sometimes into them.

It's open, blatant, hypocrisy. It shows contempt for international law. China supports it - for other countries, but exempts itself. It's attacked Indonesian fishing boats in Indonesian waters, because China says Indonesia's legal right to the waters under international law is overridden by China's claim to those waters, despite its claim having no basis in international law.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

Li Shangfu: speculation grows over fate of China’s missing defence minister

Li Shangfu, who has not been seen for nearly three weeks, is under house arrest, claims US ambassador to Japan

www.theguardian.com

Another top Chinese military official has disappeared, this time the defence minister. As this was one of Xi's personal appointments, the question has to be asked why he's been subject to secretive action. Either way, the constant purges can't be good for PLA morale.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Chinese Firm's 'Breakthrough' 28nm Chipmaking Tool to Debut Soon: Report

SMEE reportedly makes significant lithography breakthrough.

www.tomshardware.com

News on Chinese indigenous litography machines. Something that's still China achilles heels on semi conductor. Litography is the tech that Biden administration push Netherlands and Japan to block China chip foundries on accessing. Hoping to block Chinese market share development.

It is still 28nm, but it is leap from SMEE previous 90nm Litography machines. Netherlands and Japanese Litography already playing on 14nm and recently 7nm. They are now aim to 3nm. Still most devices work on 28nm - 90 NM semiconductor which Chinese foundries have large market share globally.

China so far shown continue abilities toward catching on cutting edge tech. It is going to be interesting seing how US blocks going to work against Chinese tech development.

A chinese ex-employee from ASML, which is spy, seems to work now at Huawei. That was to be expected. Foreigners who want to join such companies as ASML often have only one goal: to gather as much as possible data, information and knowledge, and then take it all back to their own country.

Bedrijfsspion ASML zou zijn overgestapt naar Huawei

Dat meldt NRC op basis van eigen onderzoek. ASML maakte eerder al bekend dat er sprake was van bedrijfsspionage, maar liet niet weten dat de spion zou zijn overgestapt naar Huawei.

nos.nl