China - Geostrategic & Geopolitical.

[Ananda]

They are good at speaking the right things to the West, while getting what they want (tech transfers) / Make-in-India.

Yes, that's the perception on Indian rather then Chinese, or other East and Southeast Asian. They are good (in a Western opinion) to adjust in 'Western' way. Pakistani actually also similar in Indian as they are also good in English and communication with West. The difference more because they are Moeslem, thus not the relative preferable choices for South Asian communities preferences.

Most South Asian as coming from British collonies, and that is where the advantage coming from. Even Malaysian and Singaporean also can be accepted better then rest Southeast Asian because part of that historical background.

However that's the perception, when I was in US in 90's, everything was about China. Chinese was the hip, Mandarin was emerging language to learn and begin to eclipse Japanese. Chinese students and Expatriate were what companies looking for on their employment recruitment. Indian expatriate just begin to nip the corporate ladder, and for sometime it is only in IT. Something that build on Indian expatriate images for decades until perhaps just a decade ago. Indian is for IT support and call center.

That's what perception is, it is always fleeting thing. Changes when one societies becoming increasingly stronger and becoming threat to the need of dominant societies (in this case Western ones). However India as Nation has their own independent agenda, just like Chinese does. It is just now West see it as balance they need against China, just like West see China as balance against USSR four decades ago.

Will that change when the need for balancing China gone? Will have to see, as unlike USSR, China presence as great power will so far more sustaine then USSR. So the need for India as counter balance to China seems going to be longer needs. Off course we don't now what will happen with BRICS, and whether BRICS can be actually the 'balance' against Western dominance. If that happen, will see if the perceptions still the same.

 

[koxinga]

That's what perception is, it is always fleeting thing. Changes when one societies becoming increasingly stronger and becoming threat to the need of dominant societies (in this case Western ones). However India as Nation has their own independent agenda, just like Chinese does. It is just now West see it as balance they need against China, just like West see China as balance against USSR four decades ago.

I disagree and that was my point earlier. My view is Western countries are willing to accept a strong, even dominant India than it is China. As our friend @Vivendi have expressed, Western people take the alignment of their values seriously, and India is closer to that than China.

You assume they see India as a threat once they become too strong, but I feel the situation will be similar to Japan; strong, probably independent (will they join G7 if invited? I don't know, since their cards are with BRIC), but still aligned to the West and seen as a valuable Asia ally. After all, Europe is happy to have an alternative to China nowadays, both in terms of markets and manufacturing.

 

[Ananda]

feel the situation will be similar to Japan; strong, probably independent (will they join G7 if invited? I don't know, since their cards are with BRIC), but still aligned to the West and seen as a valuable Asia ally. After all, Europe is happy to have an alternative to China nowadays, both in terms of markets and manufacturing.

Japan after the War just like Germany is already in line with US alliances. India from begining always want to have independent path. That's what more the line with China thinking. India and China also want to have dominances on the region. You and I as East Asian and Southeast Asian more incline at the moment see China as power threat that want to dominate region. However if talk with Pakistani or Sri Lankan or I even once talk to group of Nepalis expatriates, and they will see potential dominaring threats coming from India.

Well off course Euro Zone and US want to help build India as to have alternative against China. That's my point all along, they see India now as alternative and counterbalance against China. Just like they see China as counterbalance against USSR decades before.

However will they still see that if China economics and Military power waning? Will they still see that if without China power, India then come to dominate Asia?

We can only speculate as I put above, as Chinese power so far more sustainable then USSR. West off course hope India will take over Chinese role as Global manufacturing hub. This so far I don't agree, as India still have long way to replicate China manufacturing ecosystem. However that's doesn't make West stop hoping India will come to that stage.

That's why I say perception is fleeting thing. They can change if they see one power arise to challenge them. I see that West see India as China four even three decades ago. They will relocate big time to India, hoping to build India as alternative for everything that's China. However India is not Japan, and their agenda to rise as dominant power is there.

That's why I say the thinking of China Nationalist and Indian Hindutva actually have more common to each other. All want to go back to their historical glory as dominant players. This is where I see potential conflict that can come later on. But not in foreseeable future cause now and then West need India, as long as China threat is there.

 

[StingrayOZ]

Yes, that's the perception on Indian rather then Chinese, or other East and Southeast Asian. They are good (in a Western opinion) to adjust in 'Western' way. Pakistani actually also similar in Indian as they are also good in English and communication with West. The difference more because they are Moeslem, thus not the relative preferable choices for South Asian communities preferences.

Yeh, I don't think that is it.

Pakistan big problem is rampant corruption, constant military coups, and near failed state status, not its religion. There have been some semi stable periods where the west has had fairly strong links to Pakistan. Much to the annoyance of India.

India is an obvious counter balance to China.
But I am pretty sure plenty in the west know that India is a complex geopolitical animal and brings their own issues and concerns with them. But that is also counterbalanced by their own internal issues and situations.

You assume they see India as a threat once they become too strong, but I feel the situation will be similar to Japan; strong, probably independent (will they join G7 if invited? I

I also think people are overstating the power of the G7, which is one of the most irrelevant entities to have ever existed. The rise and fall of nations geopolitically can often be attributed to how badly the US needs or has interest in them and there importance globally. Its not like the Italian prime minister announces at the G7 conference "India! We can counter balance China with India" and all the other heads of state nod knowingly and then a charter is announced that India is the new hot thing. G7 should probably evaporate, G20 is more relevant.

India has their own thing going on, and has never sought to have a particularly close relationship with the Americans. India is non-aligned and famously so with very active relationship with Russia. India's presence in the Quad doesn't perhaps unwind that, but probably represents a portion of Russia, who has their own concerns about China.

Places like Nepal are classic examples of how little traditional "global powers" like the US and Russia play in some areas. They are almost non-existent in Nepal, like barely in the top 10 players in that space which is dominated by China, India, Pakistan, the far further down, Arab states, South East Asian states, western countries (combined).

Off course we don't now what will happen with BRICS, and whether BRICS can be actually the 'balance' against Western dominance. If that happen, will see if the perceptions still the same.

BRICS isn't a thing IMO. It weilds no significant power as an entity. There isn't a whole lot that unifies them. On any issue you are likely to get 5 different answers. But shows a nice scale of developing states along some sort of continuum of functioning state to failed state.

South Africa? As a balance against western dominance? I will strap myself down for that one.

Its more absurd than saying MITKA is going to be the next global power and challenge western dominance? At least its a bunch of like minded, functional middle powers that can get along with each other.

 

[Ananda]

BRICS isn't a thing IMO. It weilds no significant power as an entity. There isn't a whole lot that unifies them

The only thing that more likely unifies them is the thinking on Multipolar World Order. Somethings all of them seems agree upon that US Unipolar World order is not something they are want to live on.

This is also where they are now trying recruiting new members. Yes it will be patch up members on different perspective and agenda. However if we see all their communique, all based on building new world order, from the one that dominate by US and West. How strong this can be for them to functions, will remain to be seen. However something that not workable from the outside power perspective, doesn’t means it will stay that. One aim for new multipolar world can be unifying factor enough for them (or other wannabe members).

South Africa at this moment more or less a joke. However the other four are not jokes and even with this war Russian still have enough global influence, and all four have enough attention from overall Global South. This is where it can get their momentum. I believe this is also why India and China despite their animosity and rivalry, still want to interact under BRICS.

India is an obvious counter balance to China.
But I am pretty sure plenty in the west know that India is a complex geopolitical animal and brings their own issues and concerns with them. But that is also counterbalanced by their own internal issues and situations.

Thank you for honest opinion from Western perspectives. For me this is shown the western needs for India is really more to China counter balance, which I already point out in my posts. However no illusions on who India really is, and realisation on India having independent agenda. Thus on Geopolitics, this means the perception for India can be potentially change once the need for China counterbalance is gone.

Looking to some Indian media, and their politicians comments, it is something that Indian also believes. They also have no illusion that India will always in US and Western favour. This is more in reality then just some says India is not a threat. Threat is perception and perception is fleeting things. Can change whenever situations are not inline anymore.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

The present population pyramid in begin to take this shape in late 90's.

As I said in my last post, the effects of the population pyramid were not felt in the 1990s, 2000s or 2010s. We're talking about how the CCP is going to deal with the demographic crisis, not when the seeds of the crisis were sown.

Your argument appeared to be that China can probably deal with this because it's been dealing with the squeeze on population for decades. But it hasn't, it's been reaping the rewards of a population boom until now. The CCP stubbornly refused to change the one child policy until 2015.

There is no evidence that the CCP has had to manage a demographic crisis until now.

 

[Ananda]

There is no evidence that the CCP has had to manage a demographic crisis until now.

There's also no evidence that they can't do it. You seems only have opinions that whatever they do, it will failed. Yes they are late on changing their policy, but it is not too late.

You seems have problem to see probability that CCP can rebalance their economics problem including their demographics. CCP so far manage to maintain Chinese Momentum. All problem of China this last few years compounded by COVID. However it is just too early to say their are failing.

Off course the effect of Population Pyramid begin to be felt this decade, again it doesn’t means the problem is not begin since the last part of 90's. All the problem of demographics that you like to put, is not happening only now, it is a momentum that build in decades. That's empirical evidence that seems you can't accept.

 

[swerve]

China used to have lots of people working at very low productivity, mostly in farming, in rural areas, who could switch to higher productivity work if it became available. That's changed. Huge numbers of the young have moved to cities, even if they're still registered as rural residents. The reducing number of young entrants to the work force didn't have much if any economic effect when the countryside was full of underemployed workers. But that gigantic pool of surplus rural labour has dried up.

The buffer's gone, & now the relatively small number of young people entering the work force has an immediate effect. This isn't 1993, or even 2003 or 2013.

That's what "the effects of the population pyramid were not felt in the 1990s, 2000s or 2010s" means. The demographic crisis has been building up for decades, but its effects weren't felt economically because there were many millions of underemployed. No longer true. And now the population's falling, & the big cohorts of older workers are retiring, & who can replace them? Not the old peasants looking after their grandchildren.

 

[Ananda]

buffer's gone, & now the relatively small number of young people entering the work force has an immediate effect. This isn't 1993, or even 2003 or 2013.

Well that's something that build up for decades that's what I mean China demographics problem is already happen for at least two decades. When you only feel something now, doesn't means they are only a problem now. Again it is a momentum to build up.

No longer true. And now the population's falling, & the big cohorts of older workers are retiring, & who can replace them? Not the old peasants looking after their grandchildren.

China also already moving up on industrial ladder scale of manufacturing ecosystems. It means they are not needing as much number on low cost labour now. That's China manufacturing cycle in 80's and 90's, not in 2020's.

On other hand some pocket of area still have surplus labour. Which is why again relocation of lower cost labour intensive cycle not only goes to neighboring countries, but also to some area inlands.

However as I have and other also point out, China industrial relocation is just matter on natural manufacturing progression cycles. CCP now even bit late, is trying to rebalances on population problem. It need at least two decades of momentum to get toward present situation. It also means the rebalance need time to gain momentum. Saying that CCP will fail on rebalacing now just simply too soon.

The data on population natural growth by provinces shown thing not as simple saying everything already too late and unreversible. The momentum need more time to see whether they can work out or not. Part like importing brides also effort by societies to rebalance themselves. Everything need monentum to be seen whether it's going to work or failed or something new in between.

 

[Vivendi]

China growth fall short of expectations. Economy grew by only 0.8% during the June quarter down from 2.2% the first 3 months of 2023. The value of newly constructed commercial residential buildings continued to decline in almost all the 70 largest cities in China. The proportion of those out of work aged between 16 and 24 rose to a record 21.3% – the sixth consecutive monthly increase.

Are these signals just blips, or a worrying indication of a long-term trend?

China GDP growth falls short of expectations as sinking property prices hit economy | Chinese economy | The Guardian

 

[Ananda]

To be clear:

‘Recovery is going from bad to worse’: 6 takeaways from China’s economic data

China’s economic growth missed expectations in the second quarter of 2023, while monthly data also released on Monday indicated faltering private confidence, record high youth unemployment and overhanging risk in property market.

www.scmp.com

YoY (Year on Year Growth) between June 2022 to June 2023 is 6.3%, and Higher then YoY between March 22 - March 23 of 4.5%. Thus first half GDP still growth 5.5%, above CCP target of 5%.

The talk of 0.8% that some Western media like to focus on is Q1 to Q2 growth. This is that below expectation. This means the momentum slowing down, although some market analyst like to point out usual higher Q to Q growth usually happens between Q2 to Q3 and Q3 to Q4.

Thus this is actually mixed results. Their Industrial output still growth 4.8% annually, on one hand.

By industry segments, manufacturing growth rose to 4.8 per cent year on year, utilities by 4.9 per cent and mining by 1.5 per cent.

Export fell is actually also mixed assessment, as Global growth in West still sluggish and some still negative. What most analyst agree on worrying sign of still sluggish China recovery is sign from domestic. Especially sign from property that still negative and means still relies on Government spending.

This means domestic consumption did not picking up as expected. For large economy with big population like China, just like US or India, domestic consumption matter more then other trend. Sluggish domestic consumption usually in any large country reflects on sluggish job creation especially for new jobber or youth. Youth Unemployment for any large population nation is matter on not just economics but also social concern.

So overall it is mixed results, not all together bad as some in West like to point out (forgetting Western growth is actually still in worse stage then China), however for me personally I'm more concern on their domestic data, rather then export. Contrary to popular believe, actually for the last decade, China domestic already matter more then export.

Any large nation need healthy domestic consumption growth much more then external trade. Domestic actually can drive manufacturing production, property and then employment growth on higher momentum then external export. It is different momentum from smaller export base economics like Japan, ROK, Malaysia, Thailand, Taiwan etc. For big nation like China and US or even India export now is secondary factor then domestic consumption.

China central Bank focusing more on creating credit to domestic. The focus from CCP government injection is also more on domestic consumption. Under present global economy recovery especially in West, China export which mostly manufacturing goods, is not going to be expected getting much traction anyways. So all focus now more how to create more domestic. On export side, China also try to get more traction in Intra Asian trade and also with Global South trade as compensation with still sluggish Western trade and economy recovery. So unless they can revive their domestic, including retail and property growth, then they're going to be hard achieving enough momentum recovery.

 

[ngatimozart]

A couple of comments.

When comparing the PRC to Japan and / or South Korea, the political and economic systems between the PRC and the others are markedly different. Political systems have major impacts upon society and its makeup; everything from culture and education through to national goals.

WRT India, it may one day become a superpower in its own right, however it as significant structural problems to solve before it gets there. It is of little danger to its neighbours ((standfast Pakistan) at the moment, but one day in the future this may not be the case. It also has ethnic, religious. political, economic, social and cultural problems that are hindering its journey towards superpower status. Once it is able to solve those, it's march forward will quicken.

 

[koxinga]

In case you have been living under a rock, Qin Gang, the recently (7 months) appoined FM has been unceremoniously removed from the job and replaced by his predecessor, Wang Yi.

It is unusual in the public and explicit nature of the removal but that might have been necessary for both internal (to show that Xi is impartial, however damaging this looks) and external politics (to explain without explaining why the most public person in the Chinese government vanished from view for nearly a month).

Qin Gang: China foreign minister's removal sparks speculation

Qin Gang's prolonged absence from public view, and the silence over it, is fuelling furious speculation.

www.bbc.com

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

In case you have been living under a rock, Qin Gang, the recently (7 months) appoined FM has been unceremoniously removed from the job and replaced by his predecessor, Wang Yi.

Really weird all that. Only the CCP would disappear a senior politician and then fire him without explanation, only to insist "situation normal... everything's perfectly all right now. We're fine. We're all fine here now" as if that wouldn't make people ask more questions. He was one of Xi's cronies, after all. Why would an affair get him in trouble? When Peng Shuai made it clear she'd had an affair with Zhang Gaoli (and even sexually assualted her), he wasn't censured.

In other news, China's youth unemployment is officially at 21.3%. In case anyone is wondering, this isn't explained by student numbers, those in full-time education are normally not counted. But more than that, a professor from Peking University has estimated that the real figure could be close to 50%. One has to ask why it would be so high if the population is already falling. Probably another marker that there won't be good economic growth anytime soon.

 

[koxinga]

Why would an affair get him in trouble? When Peng Shuai made it clear she'd had an affair with Zhang Gaoli (and even sexually assualted her), he wasn't censured.

When the Peng Shuai affair broke in 2021, Zhang Gaoli was already semi-retired and had relinquished most of his major appointments (member of the Politburo and Vice Premier). It was embassing, yes, but he was already on the way out.

Qin Gang on the other hand, was clearly fast tracked to the FM role due to Xi's interference and he is a very public figure. I was expecting him to be given a seat at the Politburo Standing Committee in the next (21) iteration if he didn't screw up.

Like any organisations, I bet a lot of people were unhappy with the fast track but had to keep their mouths shut because Xi had the power. An incident like this will provide legitimate ammunition to these factions and cliques to undermine some of Xi's control.

Xi's hands are tied here; he will have to sacifice Qin Gang publicly to silence his internal critics.

 

[koxinga]

GCaptain has an excellent article covering China's shadow fleet of tankers, that are both assisting in certain illegal activities as well as it's potential in any future Pacific conflict, where long range product distribution will be necessary and something the US is severely limited in if key staging points are hit.

Deep Dive Into China's Move To Build Shadow Fleet Tankers

by Captain John Konrad (gCaptain) Irene Ang at Tradewinds is reporting that Kurow Shipping, a mysterious tanker company with ties to the Shadow Fleet of tankers transporting Russian oil has reportedly...

gcaptain.com

 

[Ananda]

article covering China's shadow fleet of tankers, that are both assisting in certain illegal activities as well as it's potential in any future Pacific conflict,

Illegal only from US/West and Allies, not for those who don't want to participate with Western drive on sanctions Russia. This means much of Global South, as they are mostly still trading with Russia. This Chinese build up on Long Range Tankers more concerning to US and West on the future conflict and trade rivalry.

This means that increasing portion of Global Tankers fleet are working outside influence of Western control markets. In such they are not insured by Western Insurance and Brokerage, thus more on commercial rivalry.

This can move to security aspects from US/West, as mostly the capabilities of those tankers being work outside Western market mechanism. Which means they are going to be registered by Non Western insurance, thus outside Western tracking.

 

[koxinga]

Illegal only from US/West and Allies, not for those who don't want to participate with Western drive on sanctions Russia.

I purposely used "certain illegal activities", instead of explicitly mentioning Russia for that reason. So I don't understand why you immediately jump and assuming Russia sanctions, since I did not write one word on Russia.

The fact that this fleet exist outside of commercial oversight means it can provide cover to say, North Korea illegal oil trade, which would be in violation of UN sanction.

 

[Ananda]

So I don't understand why you immediately jump and assuming Russia sanctions, since I did not write one word on Russia.

Because you are talking on the article, and the article taking about Chinese using those Tankers to support (one of main thing) trade with Russia. That's from that article the mostly can be said as illegal (from Western point of view).

Just so clear, illegal from Western point of view, doesn't mean illegal from anyone else POV.

 

[koxinga]

Because you are talking on the article, and the article taking about Chinese using those Tankers to support (one of main thing) trade with Russia. That's from that article the mostly can be said as illegal (from Western point of view).

This is a China geopolitics thread and the context of the article is about the shadow fleet's capability to circumvent western practices and provide direct support to PLA. Read it how you want.

Just so clear, illegal from Western point of view, doesn't mean illegal from anyone else POV.

Thank you for educating me the difference between unilateral western sanctions versus UN sanctions.