The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

ngatimozart

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There is nothing willy nilly about it. Russian use of minefields is very deliberate. That's what makes it successful. The giant quantity makes it seem like they're just dumping mines all over the place, but this isn't true. We've seen Ukrainian units explore what appear to be corridors in the minefields only to hit dead ends and get ambushed by Russian artillery or other long range fires. We've seen Ukrainian efforts to move through the minefields with no apparent Russian presence only to realize there are hidden LP/OPs in the treeline directing strikes against the column and remote minelayers closing the gaps behind them.
I am using the term willy nilly in the broad sense because they've sowed a huge large number of mines. I am aware that they will have a plan for the mine laying.
This is last years' news. Russia did this after the advent of HIMARS strikes last year. They still have some locations get hit some of the time, so continuing efforts to this effect are probably ongoing. But the big shift came last year.
No it's not last years news. If it was the case we wouldn't see so many Russian ammo and fuel dumps having RUD - Rapid Unplanned Demolition. I love that Elon Musk term. No this is a very recent move and they are using fuel bladders that are easily moved when empty. They are being very mobile with the fuel and ammo mini dumps, using one tanker / ammo truck rather than a convoy.
It's a garbage tier article and should be ignored. The manpower struggles Ukraine faces are not because they're running out of men, it has to do with trained personnel. And Ukraine's pre-war population wasn't 44 million. I wouldn't trust any of the numbers in that piece. The recruiting challenges come because people don't want to serve, not because there are no people left.
Concur, almost sounds like one of Prigozhin's troll factories.
Not just the idiots though. Ukraine's initial attacks were by larger armored groups with mineclearing vehicles, and small mobile groups whose goal was clearly to maneuver around Russian strong points and exploit their maneuverability like they did in Kharkov last year. Unless you consider the Ukrainian planners and their western advisers as idiots, this was clearly the idea from people who in theory should know what they're doing. In all likelihood the surprise came in the effectiveness of Russian infantry on the front lines (remember it's primarily a bunch of marines, VDV, SpN, and recon elements fighting in this minefield grey zone) that were able to effectively man the LP/OPs spread around the minefields, the role played by Ka-52s. Russian attack helicopters have been thoroughly underwhelming this war, and the Ka-52 emerging as a major piece of the defense was a surprise likely to all involved, and the flexibility of the Russian defense effort, unlike the stubborn, often pointless, attacks the Russian military engaged in over the year preceding this.
The thing is that the Ukrainians are still advancing, albeit slowly. One commentator I saw earlier today said that they were slowly chipping away at the Russian defences. I think that it's an apt description.
There is actually a danger here for Russia. If the best forces Russia has also take significant casualties in this fight, the regular infantry defending the main lines might do far worse, and Ukraine might have an easier time breaking through the "main defenses" then they did trying to chew their way through the minefields.
Yes there is a significant danger for Russia if / when the Ukrainians mange to get an armoured brigade into the Russian rear areas., especially one outfitted with western armoured vehicles and equipment. The Russians have a very low ratio of vehicles and troops equipped with NV capabilities, and if the Ukrainians decide to go with night attacks, that will be a significant problem for the Russians. One point though, apparently the modern western NV supplied to Ukraine isn't good at all picking up mines, especially buried ones.
 

ngatimozart

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All posts WRT Prigozhin's alleged demise are to be posted in the because Wagner is no longer active inside Ukraine and is now a purely Russian matter.
 

Feanor

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The thing is that the Ukrainians are still advancing, albeit slowly. One commentator I saw earlier today said that they were slowly chipping away at the Russian defences. I think that it's an apt description.
Spot on. The issue is that they're burning through their forces trained for this offensive. The question becomes, will they run out of forces with which to attack before they break through. Right now the answer appears to be a definite yes.

Yes there is a significant danger for Russia if / when the Ukrainians mange to get an armoured brigade into the Russian rear areas., especially one outfitted with western armoured vehicles and equipment. The Russians have a very low ratio of vehicles and troops equipped with NV capabilities, and if the Ukrainians decide to go with night attacks, that will be a significant problem for the Russians. One point though, apparently the modern western NV supplied to Ukraine isn't good at all picking up mines, especially buried ones.
A couple of thoughts. Are there even any rear areas before you get to Melitopol'? Or is it all non-stop defense lines and piles of mines? Will Ukraine have an armored brigade available to insert? What will that armored brigade do when it encounters Russian attack helos? Lastly, when it comes to armored vehicles, every single BTR and BMP have NVGs. Infantry NVGs are less common. How common are they in Ukrainian service?
 

vikingatespam

Well-Known Member
Is there somewhere that tracks UKR tank losses by date ? I need to know how many UKR tanks lost (as per Oryx definition) since the start of the UKR offensive. I want to make a feeble, statistically dubious estimate of UKR PAX losses.
 

ngatimozart

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Spot on. The issue is that they're burning through their forces trained for this offensive. The question becomes, will they run out of forces with which to attack before they break through. Right now the answer appears to be a definite yes.
I disagree because they are husbanding their resources and they haven't committed their reserves yet. The UKR general staff have been very smart about how they fighting this war and not taking undue risks.
A couple of thoughts. Are there even any rear areas before you get to Melitopol'? Or is it all non-stop defense lines and piles of mines? Will Ukraine have an armored brigade available to insert? What will that armored brigade do when it encounters Russian attack helos? Lastly, when it comes to armored vehicles, every single BTR and BMP have NVGs. Infantry NVGs are less common. How common are they in Ukrainian service?
I don't think that the Russian defence lines are non stop because they don't have the troops or materials for that. However I believe that they are in depth though and whilst difficult to defeat, aren't invulnerable or undefeatable. The Russian helos can be dealt with and they aren't the be all to end all. The Ka-52 supply isn't unlimited and they can be defeated. The Ukrainians have a goodly supply of NVG gear, especially western NVG gear. There are plenty of videos of UKR troops using NVG at night.
 

Feanor

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I disagree because they are husbanding their resources and they haven't committed their reserves yet. The UKR general staff have been very smart about how they fighting this war and not taking undue risks.
What units/elements do you think they're still holding back? To the best of my knowledge they've committed nearly all forces. The battlegroup Marun was the last major formation. We're once again getting reports of freshly mobilized cannon fodder being used on the Oskol front and info on new units being formed.

I don't think that the Russian defence lines are non stop because they don't have the troops or materials for that. However I believe that they are in depth though and whilst difficult to defeat, aren't invulnerable or undefeatable. The Russian helos can be dealt with and they aren't the be all to end all. The Ka-52 supply isn't unlimited and they can be defeated. The Ukrainians have a goodly supply of NVG gear, especially western NVG gear. There are plenty of videos of UKR troops using NVG at night.
Material being shovels for digging and landmines for scattering? The former is unlikely to run out. The latter is of course up for some debate, but the Soviet land mine stockpile is quite vast. Possibly vast enough to cover from the current Zaporozhye Front to Melitopol' non-stop. Russian helos can be dealt with in principle, but Ukraine hasn't shown an ability to do that in practice and it's unclear how they would go about that. For NVGs, there are videos from both sides operating at night. Is there a significant difference in the quantity of NVGs across large formations from both sides. I don't see anything clear either way. Ukraine might have an advantage.
 

ngatimozart

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What units/elements do you think they're still holding back? To the best of my knowledge they've committed nearly all forces. The battlegroup Marun was the last major formation. We're once again getting reports of freshly mobilized cannon fodder being used on the Oskol front and info on new units being formed.
What sources would these be; Russian? If so they are not reliable sources at all. Try not to let your nationality cloud your analysis. Yes I know that it is difficult.
Material being shovels for digging and landmines for scattering? The former is unlikely to run out. The latter is of course up for some debate, but the Soviet land mine stockpile is quite vast. Possibly vast enough to cover from the current Zaporozhye Front to Melitopol' non-stop. Russian helos can be dealt with in principle, but Ukraine hasn't shown an ability to do that in practice and it's unclear how they would go about that. For NVGs, there are videos from both sides operating at night. Is there a significant difference in the quantity of NVGs across large formations from both sides. I don't see anything clear either way. Ukraine might have an advantage.
We know that the Russian infantry don't have unlimited access to NVGs and that in battalion formations and lower it is practically quite rare. There's enough literature floating around to support this.
 

Feanor

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What sources would these be; Russian? If so they are not reliable sources at all. Try not to let your nationality cloud your analysis. Yes I know that it is difficult.
The 82nd Air Assault was the center piece of battlegroup Marun. Again, what assets do you think they are holding back? What units do you think are still in reserve?

We know that the Russian infantry don't have unlimited access to NVGs and that in battalion formations and lower it is practically quite rare. There's enough literature floating around to support this.
Yes. Do you have anything to support the idea that Ukrainian infantry have unlimited access to NVGs?
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
What sources would these be; Russian? If so they are not reliable sources at all. Try not to let your nationality cloud your analysis. Yes I know that it is difficult.
It seems like it was common knowledge at this point? I cited a Forbes article on the subject, … last week (?) Few others I saw discussing the same over the past week or so.

This guy is stating the same:

There are still possibilities for further significant advances and some time to achieve them. Ukraine’s forces are fully committed and there are no more reserves to be committed. There is perhaps another couple of months of fighting before the Ukrainians will start to be affected by ammunition shortages. By this time both sides may be feeling weary and depleted after the year’s exertions and be looking to regroup as much as attack.


That ^ is actually a pretty great read for those interested. It reflects some points I brought up previously and completely opposes some others. I highly recommend it, a well written piece (I sources it on Kofman’s Twitter or whatever it is called nowadays).

Also, Malyar was complaining about the media disclosing the commitment of the 82nd brigade going as far as saying there is prison time in Ukraine for doing that, 5 to 8 years or something like that. She blamed the media about the Russian strikes on the unit as well.

Just a random google search result to provide a source:


I am not going to speak for Feanor, but in regards to bias, I think he manages it pretty well. In many cases what may appear to be bias, actually reflects on his knowledge and understanding of the processes that take place and everyday life in Russia. Is there bias, of course. None of us are without it. In fact, I might be saying this because his lines up quite nicely with mine, haha. Being self aware is important though. For the record, I understand and can speak Russian, I have a little bit of Russian in me as far as ethnicity goes. I was not born and never lived in Russia. I also haven’t visited there in the past… gotta be 30 years or so, if not more.

I see quite a bit of bias here and everywhere else. For example, in regards to the comment above describing the UA General Staff as being smart about how they are conducting the war. Are they smart? Without a doubt. Yet, they have been doing the same things/“mistakes” as the Russians did (for example, throwing their soldiers and equipment straight to the minefields and then over again; there are other examples, of course), but Russian actions have been definitely described using words opposite of smart. And there are a bunch of comments like this here and… everywhere, basically. When there is a mention of Ukrainian personnel being used as meat, it is often referred to as disinformation and propaganda; yet, Ukrainian (and their extension’) reports about Russians doing so are taken as something that is expected and fact. For these reason, I have never provided Russian outlets as a source (and always read them with a pound or two of salt myself) for these type of reports. However, I previously provided the same reports on the same subject citing our (western) media, such Washington Post, New York Times, Politico, and so on.

Overall, I have never in my life seen as much bias and propaganda on any subject, at least in the western world. Maybe because there has never been a subject of importance that I am deeply interested in and have quite a bit of understanding of the matter (in my arrogant biased view, of course).
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
Well, this escalated quickly. As per RU MoD, there were 42 (!) drones taken down over Crimea. 9 shot down and 33 (!) taken down via means of EW.


If true, and we are yet to see how this story develops (and it might have already, I just haven’t seen), this is probably a continuation of that S400 (per UA claims) or S300 (per RU sources’ claims) blown up in Olenivka.
 

rsemmes

Member
SOP.
I have seen more than a few videos with loitering munitions hitting the turret, what about the engine? Is that no longer a SOP?, an immobilized tank is going to be a destroyed tank and you just need to damage the engine/transmission. I read some comments about the Lancet warhead not being powerful enough; and others, I guess.
Also, what about artillery hitting the area afterwards? I have seen drones dropping grenades, we don't have videos of artillery doing that or it is not doing that? Any HE is going to damage equipment and tracks, maybe even making it not worth to repair.
 

MarcH

Member
I don't think we should hope for any kind of breakthrough and a quick end to this war. Don't forget: the Russians have air superiority over the occupied territory. The combat helicopter was already declared dead as long as the Ukrainians were on the defense.
As soon as that changed the Ka 52's made quick a comeback. A deep penetration would give the Russian fixed wing assets their chance to shine.
No, we don't have to expect that. What we will continue to see are infiltration attacks.
The heavy equip will follow behind under the cover of ground based air defenses. This way they can exploid their advantage (sensors and weapon range) without risking too much.

What I would like to see are more deliveries of modern equipment, not just the old stuff like the Leo 2A4's. Equipment that's currently in production for other NATO countries. Like the Rosomaks for example.
One good idea from within the German MoD was to order 500 Leo 2 A8 and then ask around who want's some. Just to get the ball rolling with serial production instead the of current manufacturing style. Unfortunately, nothing came out of it. And due to the stance of Israel towards re-exports to Ukraine it would have been problematic to include the Ukrainians. The installed trophy is probably the most significant improvement over older models.

Regarding F-16: They don't change the status quo. MiG-31 and Su-35 would still rain R-37M down on them. What they would do is to keep the Ukrainian air force in the air defense game and maybe as pgm carriers. At some point the existing MiGs and Sukhois will run out of spares and weapons. For the F-16's the west could supply spares and weapons.
And I bet this is the reason why we don't see more major weapons systems delivered to Ukraine. It would be expected to keep them supplied, since the Ukrainians can hardly afford to pay for that themselves.
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
What I would like to see are more deliveries of modern equipment, not just the old stuff like the Leo 2A4's. Equipment that's currently in production for other NATO countries. Like the Rosomaks for example.
One good idea from within the German MoD was to order 500 Leo 2 A8 and then ask around who want's some. Just to get the ball rolling with serial production instead the of current manufacturing style. Unfortunately, nothing came out of it. And due to the stance of Israel towards re-exports to Ukraine it would have been problematic to include the Ukrainians. The installed trophy is probably the most significant improvement over older models.
They probably need to adopt more holistic force protection solutions before diving into more exquisite items like APS. I think what they're missing most are combat engineering equipment as well as SHORAD. Mine ploughs and MICLICs are not going to cut it on their own.
Breaching is a maneuver, and aside from the physical aspect of going through minefields and surviving potential ambushes and artillery, they have to find ways to lower their visibility - hard to do when practically the entire front is littered with drones filming everything. That's going to take a lot of effort, finding and matching a technological solution for that.
 
What I would like to see are more deliveries of modern equipment, not just the old stuff like the Leo 2A4's. Equipment that's currently in production for other NATO countries. Like the Rosomaks for example.
One good idea from within the German MoD was to order 500 Leo 2 A8 and then ask around who want's some. Just to get the ball rolling with serial production instead the of current manufacturing style. Unfortunately, nothing came out of it. And due to the stance of Israel towards re-exports to Ukraine it would have been problematic to include the Ukrainians. The installed trophy is probably the most significant improvement over older models.
Not an expert on this, but I don't believe current production capacity for any Western armored vehicles is nearly enough to meet Ukrainian needs at the moment. KMW puts out like something like 100-150 combined new / modernized Leopard 2s a year. They say they have capacity for more but I'd be incredibly skeptical of that claim since a) there hasn't been a demand for more in quite some time, b) companies aren't in the habit of just sitting on extra production capacity, and c) they are heavily incentivized to make such claims to encourage more orders from the government. 500 Leo 2A8's would take years to produce, if not longer.

Ukraine is getting sent the armored vehicles from old stockpiles, most of which are being drawn down. Even the US doesn't really have current production capacity to just pump out Strykers / M1 Abrams / M2 Bradley's to send over. It's an open question just where the vehicles for the next strike package will come from. As a former US official put it to WSJ, "We built up this mountain of steel for the counteroffensive. We can’t do that again. It doesn’t exist." Presumably this overstates the case a bit since by the numbers there should still be quite a few vehicles sitting in storage that could be sent, but perhaps there is not a large appetite for that in the DOD considering that the last tranche was chewed up with little to show for it.

 

ngatimozart

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Well, this escalated quickly. As per RU MoD, there were 42 (!) drones taken down over Crimea. 9 shot down and 33 (!) taken down via means of EW.


If true, and we are yet to see how this story develops (and it might have already, I just haven’t seen), this is probably a continuation of that S400 (per UA claims) or S300 (per RU sources’ claims) blown up in Olenivka.
The Russian MOD isn't exactly a reliable nor reputable source at the best of times. Just remember that. That's why you see me citing them rarely. I regard the same with the UKR MOD as well. Remember both sides are highly active in the disinformation and propaganda spheres because they have a very vested interest in controlling what information enters the public sphere and they want to control the narrative. I also treat all social media sources with a great deal of caution
The 82nd Air Assault was the center piece of battlegroup Marun. Again, what assets do you think they are holding back? What units do you think are still in reserve?
Like you and others on here, I don't have access to the current UKR ORBAT or dispositions. However they have IIRC 9 - 10 modern armoured divisions and few of those appear to have been committed to the battle yet. The UKR have very good OPSEC and most of us on here understand the importance of that.
Yes. Do you have anything to support the idea that Ukrainian infantry have unlimited access to NVGs?
I will dig around and attempt to find those sources again.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Like you and others on here, I don't have access to the current UKR ORBAT or dispositions. However they have IIRC 9 - 10 modern armoured divisions and few of those appear to have been committed to the battle yet. The UKR have very good OPSEC and most of us on here understand the importance of that.
They don't have a single armored division in their entire armed forces...

I will dig around and attempt to find those sources again.
I'll give you this, when Ukraine's armored divisions attack, Russia's front line will break. :rolleyes:
 

Stuart M

Well-Known Member
The Russian MOD isn't exactly a reliable nor reputable source at the best of times. Just remember that. That's why you see me citing them rarely. I regard the same with the UKR MOD as well. Remember both sides are highly active in the disinformation and propaganda spheres because they have a very vested interest in controlling what information enters the public sphere and they want to control the narrative. I also treat all social media sources with a great deal of caution

Like you and others on here, I don't have access to the current UKR ORBAT or dispositions. However they have IIRC 9 - 10 modern armoured divisions and few of those appear to have been committed to the battle yet. The UKR have very good OPSEC and most of us on here understand the importance of that.

I will dig around and attempt to find those sources again.
You mean armoured brigades?
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
Is there somewhere that tracks UKR tank losses by date ? I need to know how many UKR tanks lost (as per Oryx definition) since the start of the UKR offensive. I want to make a feeble, statistically dubious estimate of UKR PAX losses.
This is the only one I know of. Maybe there is something else to compare it to in order to somewhat determine reliability of the data, but I know of nothing else. Browse through his Twitter account and see what else you can dig up. I only know that the gap in his numbers has been closing in as of late, which was quite significant in the beginning, but also somewhat follows reports from the front, I guess.


Edit: as for your expressed purpose, note the difference in numbers for infantry mobility vehicles.
 
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KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
The Russian MOD isn't exactly a reliable nor reputable source at the best of times. Just remember that. That's why you see me citing them rarely. I regard the same with the UKR MOD as well. Remember both sides are highly active in the disinformation and propaganda spheres because they have a very vested interest in controlling what information enters the public sphere and they want to control the narrative. I also treat all social media sources with a great deal of caution.
That is a given. Frankly, there is very limited number of sources whose info I trust in this, even then there is a grain of salt that is always present, lol.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
A Soviet "Tank Corps" numbered 10,500 men and contained 189 tanks. A Soviet "Mechanized Corps" numbered 16,000 men and had 186 tanks. (These "corps" are more comparable to Western divisions than to Western corps.) A Soviet "Rifle Division" totaled 9,375 men, and a "Guards Rifle Division" had 10,585 men.
.

Talking on Tank/Armoured Division, I know Ukrainian already more and more build on the pattern on NATO ones. However decades of USSR I don't think as easy being forgotten by Ukrainian Brass. USSR pattern is build to storm NATO defense, so I'm skeptical those pattern is totally being left behind by Ukrainian.

Still if we see the standard number of Soviet Armoured Div pattern, I don't think enough Tanks being given by West to build USSR standard armoured div. Especially after the attrition of present counteroffensive.
 
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