The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Stuart M

Well-Known Member
That is a given. Frankly, there is very limited number of sources whose info I trust in this, even then there is a grain of salt that is always present, lol.
Like any conflict, any kind of clarity on events won't come out till well after the fighting is done and truth will always be a somewhat elusive thing even then, so perhaps best not to get too attached to proceedings till after its all done.
 

koxinga

Well-Known Member
Yes. Do you have anything to support the idea that Ukrainian infantry have unlimited access to NVGs?
I think @ngatimozart assertation that Ukraine has "unlimited" access to NVG is overstated, but not entirely false.

While both Ukraine and Russia would be able to access commercial NVG kits, Ukraine does have easier access to military grade 3rd gen NVGs via the US, which are of higher quality. (Gen 3)

It is an area that is not easy to overcome as even alternative sources like China are still behind the US, mostly Gen 2+.

As for said "reserved" armour divisions, yes, I don't think there are "divisions" (brigades) left as they seem to have been committed. We are in late August; practically, Ukraine just have 3+ months to make a significant dent on Russian lines before winter sets in. Maybe they are training new brigades but I think these would not be able to commit in the short term.
 
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rsemmes

Member
Why?
Regarding a few recent posts, I cannot see why US/Poland/Germany/NATO... are going to provide 1.000 new model tanks. We will invest according to our expectations of benefits, we are getting rid of old stock, great news for our MIC and we are getting positions in UKR economy, great for business. There are more than a few active conflicts right now, we are not intervening (even when this usually means invasion and killings) for justice, freedom or whatever principle we will use when it suits our interests.
I think that we will keep our limited investment as long as the projection of benefits makes it worth it. Those tanks may look great, in blood, but, myself, I cannot see why we (whatever party is in power right now) would do it.

@rsemmes

Can you please link your posts to those you are responding to as it is not immediately obvious who you are responding too or the context.. Your previous post to this has the same issue.

alexsa


Posts 42531/36.
I was not replying to one post, but at the idea of Europe fighting this war forever; not only in this forum.

My previous post was a question, about a lot of videos. The expression "common knowledge" has been used, there are a lot of videos of loitering munition hitting the turret. Recently, I saw one Lancet hitting the rear door of a M113, rear or flank, you are going to get a 90° hit, always good even if you are not using AP/HEAT and you are attacking the squad inside, better than hitting the engine; in this case, because it is not a MBT.
 
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KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
Three Ukrainian pilots dead after two planes collided. One of them was the infamous Juice who provided quite a few interviews I remember reading.


@KipPotapych
Why is this particular pilot infamous? Just because he was an ace doesn't make him infamous. He was doing what he was required to do.

Ngatimozart
 
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John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Three Ukrainian pilots dead after two planes collided. One of them was the infamous Juice who provided quite a few interviews I remember reading.

Bad news for Ukraine as trained aviators are a critical resource. Worse news for families. RIP.
 

T.C.P

Well-Known Member
Bad news for Ukraine as trained aviators are a critical resource. Worse news for families. RIP.
WHen this news first came out, the Russians were claiing that it was 2 Mig-29s, but now the Ukr sources are saying that its 2 L-39s that collided. If the Ukr are correct, then 2 L-39s are less worse than losing 2 Mig-29s at this stage.
 

vikingatespam

Well-Known Member
This is the only one I know of. Maybe there is something else to compare it to in order to somewhat determine reliability of the data, but I know of nothing else. Browse through his Twitter account and see what else you can dig up. I only know that the gap in his numbers has been closing in as of late, which was quite significant in the beginning, but also somewhat follows reports from the front, I guess.

Edit: as for your expressed purpose, note the difference in numbers for infantry mobility vehicles.
thanks for the link, I saw it once but never found it again before you pointed it out.

So, here is my Extremely Dubious Attempt to Distort Statistics:

UKR has suffered ~250000 PAX losses to date according to various entities (several DoD, DuPuy, etc). If we assumes that PAX losses scale to tank losses (I picked tanks just to draw a line in the sand, see Numbers, Prediction and War) then the UKR PAX losses since the counter offensive are the same proportion to the tank losses.

Oryx puts total tank losses at 626, while the aforementioned link has 59 tank losses since the start of the UKR offensive.

59/626 x 250,000 = 23,562 PAX losses.

Of the losses,
4712 KIA
4712 permanently out of service
4712 returned to duty within a few days
9424 retuning to duty over 2 months

Given the wide range of estimates about the UKR forces used in the offensive, I cannot say what this means in terms of attrition of those units.

So thats my Completely UnDefendable Attempt at Prediction.
 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
Lithuania will deliver NASAMS launchers to Ukraine next month: Lithuania Confirms September Delivery of NASAMS Air Defense Missile Launchers to Ukraine | Defense News August 2023 Global Security army industry | Defense Security global news industry army year 2023 | Archive News year (armyrecognition.com)

Norway will donate min-clearing equipment to Ukraine, this is part of the 5-year support package to Ukraine that is supported by almost all parties in the Norwegian parliament (meaning that after the next elections, the package will still remain in place): Norway to donate mine clearance equipment to Ukraine - regjeringen.no

Norway is planning to donate F-16s to Ukraine -- when and how many is not yet clear: Norway plans to donate F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine - regjeringen.no

Sweden's 13th military support package to Ukraine consists mainly of ammunition, spare parts for both CV90 and Leos, as well as mine clearance equipment. Total value of this package: SEK 3.4 billion: Thirteenth support package to Ukraine focusing on ammunition and spare parts - Government.se

Finland has approved their 18th military support package (EUR 94 million). As usual, they do not provide information on what is being provided to Ukraine. Finland to provide Ukraine with military aid worth 94 million euros (euromaidanpress.com)

It's hard to tell how long various European countries will provide this level of support. Personally I think for at least another 4-5 years, probably even longer. If Trump wins the elections and decides to stop all support that will for sure create a lot of issues for Ukraine however I think many European countries will not stop their support even if Trump does. Thus, if Putin believes that things will become "easy" for him if Trump wins, I think he will be in for a nasty surprise.
 

2007yellow430

Active Member
Lithuania will deliver NASAMS launchers to Ukraine next month: Lithuania Confirms September Delivery of NASAMS Air Defense Missile Launchers to Ukraine | Defense News August 2023 Global Security army industry | Defense Security global news industry army year 2023 | Archive News year (armyrecognition.com)

Norway will donate min-clearing equipment to Ukraine, this is part of the 5-year support package to Ukraine that is supported by almost all parties in the Norwegian parliament (meaning that after the next elections, the package will still remain in place): Norway to donate mine clearance equipment to Ukraine - regjeringen.no

Norway is planning to donate F-16s to Ukraine -- when and how many is not yet clear: Norway plans to donate F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine - regjeringen.no

Sweden's 13th military support package to Ukraine consists mainly of ammunition, spare parts for both CV90 and Leos, as well as mine clearance equipment. Total value of this package: SEK 3.4 billion: Thirteenth support package to Ukraine focusing on ammunition and spare parts - Government.se

Finland has approved their 18th military support package (EUR 94 million). As usual, they do not provide information on what is being provided to Ukraine. Finland to provide Ukraine with military aid worth 94 million euros (euromaidanpress.com)

It's hard to tell how long various European countries will provide this level of support. Personally I think for at least another 4-5 years, probably even longer. If Trump wins the elections and decides to stop all support that will for sure create a lot of issues for Ukraine however I think many European countries will not stop their support even if Trump does. Thus, if Putin believes that things will become "easy" for him if Trump wins, I think he will be in for a nasty surprise.
Trump will never be the next USA President. See the Constitution ‘s 14th amendment, Section 3. That destroys Putin’s strategy.
Art

@2007yellow430 You don't know that. Keep domestic US divisive politics out of the discussion please. Once the November 2024 election is over and certified then we will know who the next President is.
 
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Black Jack Shellac

Active Member
Trump will never be the next USA President. See the Constitution ‘s 14th amendment, Section 3. That destroys Putin’s strategy.
Art
I think you need to be prepared for disappointment.

Latest Polls

It's an interesting read. The majority of Americans believe that the attacks on Trump are politically motivated. The more they attack, the stronger he gets.

I think Europe better be prepared to carry this burden after 2024, we cannot count on the USA.
 

Larry_L

Active Member
US support for Ukraine War
[/QUOTE]
I suppose that you also believe that Trump could actually "end the war in 24 hours" You may be surprised at the continued support for Ukraine in the unlikely event that he could actually win the election and dodge all the legal problems he currently has. NATO would likely have to take on more of their share of the burden, but support would continue.
 

Black Jack Shellac

Active Member
I suppose that you also believe that Trump could actually "end the war in 24 hours" You may be surprised at the continued support for Ukraine in the unlikely event that he could actually win the election and dodge all the legal problems he currently has. NATO would likely have to take on more of their share of the burden, but support would continue.
Personally I think Trump is a class A idiot.

But what I think does not matter. What matters is what the American public think. And right now, they like Trump. So the rest of us (all the non-Americans) will need to pick up the slack when the USA bails. So we should plan on it.
 

Larry_L

Active Member
I have come across a few things that I find interesting. You will naturally have to sift these posts through your own experience to get at the truth as you will see it. Tom Cooper expounds on the disposition of air defense in Crimea, and the Ukrainian assault on some of the elements. He also clarifies that hill 166 (the High ground) in the Verbove area has not been taken.


Another view of the Verbove area.


If this report on the Kherson region is even half true it is bad news for Russia. The redeployment of the VDV from Kherson has weakened the defense here. Reportedly the Ukranian bridge head was untenable after a counterattack which pulled Russian troops from nearby areas. Ukraine abandoned the bridgehead and attacked the areas weakened spots resulting in morale problems for Russian units.


Ukraine finally finds a use for the cardboard drones they got from Australia. According to the report they got by the AD assets at the Kursk airfield causing damage.

 

Larry_L

Active Member
Personally I think Trump is a class A idiot.

But what I think does not matter. What matters is what the American public think. And right now, they like Trump. So the rest of us (all the non-Americans) will need to pick up the slack when the USA bails. So we should plan on it.
Yes, pick up the slack, while US Americans ensure that the global comedian does not get his wish to be a tyrant. We found his last reign to be rather repressive. Just a small taste of what the Russian population experiences every day. ;)
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
This is the only one I know of. Maybe there is something else to compare it to in order to somewhat determine reliability of the data, but I know of nothing else. Browse through his Twitter account and see what else you can dig up. I only know that the gap in his numbers has been closing in as of late, which was quite significant in the beginning, but also somewhat follows reports from the front, I guess.
Keep in mind this list is specific to the Zaporizhzhia front. Other fronts are excluded.
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
Ukraine finally finds a use for the cardboard drones they got from Australia. According to the report they got by the AD assets at the Kursk airfield causing damage
Finally I'm seeing credit given to material innovation. There's this odd correlation between "cheap" and "trash" because we're only familiar with some materials from consumer products. A very slow cardboard drone is a poor man's stealth drone but still effective in that job.
And 3-5kg warhead on that thing is impressive, as well as quite useful. I assume the variance in warhead weight means multiple warhead options.
 
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