The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[Stuart M]

...If we allow the violation of international law to proceed on the basis of moral weakness, and swathes of Ukrainian land to be annexed to a rapacious Russia, then international law will be rightly seen to be worthless, protecting no one; and every nation with hostile ambition will predate upon the weaker, because they can.
Are we talking about legal terms?, not the right place.
"Moral weakness"? as... "high horse"? Are we talking about the Spanish Civil War or about NI and Ireland? (Mind, the British, not the Irish, coming from Britain, not from Ireland).
Do you mean we (I guess you mean the West, do we ask anyone else?) don't allow it to "proceed" in every single instance? Legal basis for organizing (the Shah) a coup d'état?
History says it is worthless, in some occasions, for national interests or under certain circumstances, with or without gunboats, it worked.
...if we conceed land to Russia taken at gun point, we conceed that war is an acceptable means of dispute settlement again, and that places everyone in danger.
It is, after the war. Prussia being Russia?, Poland moving into Germany? When we make the law, it is legal.
You read the word "alliance" before?, based on principles or interests? Yes, the weak are always in danger.
...are you suggesting that warfare and territorial acquisition by force of arms is somehow a legitimate means of dispute settlement?
"Legitimate"? I am not a lawyer, I know that after the fact it is; like, almost, every dictatorship
"Stop quoting the law, we carry weapons".
I am suggesting Human History.

Still not clear on wtf you are on about, but you still sound vaguely like you are trying to argue that force is a valid means of dispute resolution.

So lets simplify it shall we, A yes or no response will suffice; Do you consider it acceptable behaviour to punch people you disagree with?

 

[ngatimozart]

I don't have time for a detailed update, but it seems Ukraine has contested Rabotino. This of course is no strategic breakthrough, and territorially Ukrainian gains on the Vremyevskiy bulge are far more significant, but this is the first notable gain on the Orekhov axis. With that in mind, it seems committing battle group Marun, including the elite 82nd Para-Assault has yielded results, though of course with significant losses (there appear to be 5-6 destroyed Strykers for example) as well as other vehicles. Russian forces remain inside the village, and Ukrainian forces appear to be on the northern outskirts. Again a Russian counter-attack is likely coming, Ukrainian forces were already repulsed recently from these outskirts. It remains to be seen how this develops.

The Ukrainians have claimed that they have taken Rob

BBC item on Ukrainians who don't want to fight the war. I will leave it here because I have a very definite opinion on draft dodgers.

 

[Ananda]

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t.me

Orikhiv sector, the enemy does not abandon attempts to storm Robotyne.

Despite the commitment of NATO armored vehicles into battle, Russian units confidently control the southern part of the village.

Rybar still claim southern part of Robotyne in Russian Hands. Thus this is still in line with claims for several days that Robotyne or Robotino is still disputed front. So far despite it is Pro Russian telegram, Rybar quite accurate on progress in the ground.

 

[ngatimozart]

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t.me

Rybar still claim southern part of Robotyne in Russian Hands. Thus this is still in line with claims for several days that Robotyne or Robotino is still disputed front. So far despite it is Pro Russian telegram, Rybar quite accurate on progress in the ground.

Yes Rybar, about as accurate as a corrupt politician. Goebbels was far better than Rybar in spreading lies and misinformation. FYI I do read Rybar on Telegram amongst others. It's definitely not a reliable source.

 

[Ananda]

FYI I do read Rybar on Telegram amongst others. It's definitely not a reliable source.

Well off course he is going to spread propaganda on Russian cause. However for movement in the ground he is quite accurate. Compare to Ukranian ones. About similar level (on ground movement accuracy) with Western sources.

 

[ngatimozart]

Well off course he is going to spread propaganda on Russian cause. However for movement in the ground he is quite accurate. Compare to Ukranian ones. About similar level (on ground movement accuracy) with Western sources.

That's why you read multiple sources. I also read the Ukrainian ones as well.

 

[Ananda]

That's why you read multiple sources. I also read the Ukrainian ones as well.

Yes, At this moment I read each sides sources only to compare which ones that shown more accurate movements in the ground. I already not pay attentions for those each sides sources opinions on wars for some time.

In the end comparing multiple sources give more or less real movements in the ground. That's why I say this war already close to stalemate, as 200m progress movements already being talk as breakthrough by each sides.

 

[ngatimozart]

Yes, At this moment I read each sides sources only to compare which ones that shown more accurate movements in the ground. I already not pay attentions for those each sides sources opinions on wars for some time.

In the end comparing multiple sources give more or less real movements in the ground. That's why I say this war already close to stalemate, as 200m progress movements already being talk as breakthrough by each sides.

From a tactical and strategic POV, if Ukraine can get get an armoured through the Russian defences and behind Russian lines, they have a good chance of creating havoc for the Russians and possibly cut the land bridge to Crimea. They are quite capable of doing that because they are far more flexible than the Russians.

 

[Ananda]

From a tactical and strategic POV, if Ukraine can get get an armoured through the Russian defences and behind Russian lines, they have a good chance of creating havoc for the Russians and possibly cut the land bridge to Crimea.

That's the idea on this Counteroffensive. Reading some Western assessment, it is what the West Intelligence and Military advisors hope. Base on some Western Advisors in the ground, what they are not expect is how well Russian defense line are. How the offensive barely even reach the primary line yet, let alone breach the primary defense line.

Russian already build layers of defense lines. Something that Ukrainian also does in Donbas. So how much armor that Ukrainian can ammes now? Even Western pundits in media now saying how many armour that Russian keep behind their defense layers, they're still in question. Russian known before to put hundreds of old Tanks (T-54/55/62) toward the fronts. Those being speculated as to be use part of defense layers. Even now, the Ukrainian has not meet most if any of them.

This is going to be sludges movement on defensive layers after layers I'm afraid. I do believe if Russian going to do offensive on their own toward Zaporozhye city, they are going to find similar thing that Ukrainian face now.

 

[ngatimozart]

That's the idea on this Counteroffensive. Reading some Western assessment, it is what the West Intelligence and Military advisors hope. Base on some Western Advisors in the ground, what they are not expect is how well Russian defense line are. How the offensive barely even reach the primary line yet, let alone breach the primary defense line.

Russian already build layers of defense lines. Something that Ukrainian also does in Donbas. So how much armor that Ukrainian can ammes now? Even Western pundits in media now saying how many armour that Russian keep behind their defense layers, they're still in question. Russian known before to ammes hundreds of old Tanks (T-54/55/62). Those being speculated as to be use part of defense layers. Even now, the Ukrainian has not meet them.

That's the problem, to many idiots in the west who should know better think that the this is supposed to be a repeat of last years lightning advances. The Russians have had time to fort up and build their defences. They have been laying minefields willy nilly in front of their main defensive lines. It also appears that they may be changing how they are undertaking their defence strategy, with un confirmed reports that they are moving into the widespread distribution of fuel and ammo stores away from the big large dumps to many smaller and better hidden ones. We'll see how the Ukrainians react to that.

 

[Ananda]

The Russians have had time to fort up and build their defences. They have been laying minefields willy nilly in front of their main defensive lines.

Yes, those Western advisors seems doing what Russian done last year. Underestimating enemy defense. Last Year in start of invasion, Russian seems believe Ukrainian will melt away when the see their Army and Armour advance. Now those Western advisors seems also believe the Russians will run away when they see the Ukrainian comes with 'superior' Western armour back up and trained by NATO advisors.

 

[rsemmes]

Still not clear on wtf you are on about, but you still sound vaguely like you are trying to argue that force is a valid means of dispute resolution.

So lets simplify it shall we, A yes or no response will suffice; Do you consider it acceptable behaviour to punch people you disagree with?

I don't "wtf" people when I talk to them. (I think you used "punch").
I don't "simplify". (I don't think Y/N is an argument).
If "force is..." is all you read, read again, please. (War is politics by other means, valid or not, is).
I will simplify for you: War. (UN has been mentioned, every (western?) country has been playing according to UN rules since then?).

I read about the Napoleonic Wars, I read about Rome, these new (UN) set of rules are not going to be respected. Yes, a lot of cynicism here. Again: "Stop quoting the law, we carry weapons". (I thought it was Scipio, it was Pompey; different wordings for the quote).
Again, off topic.

On topic: UKR running out of men.

Ukraine’s army is running out of men to recruit, and time to win

Victory may be in sight for Vladimir Putin

www.telegraph.co.uk

It is the Torygraph, not the best one, but it seems that the west is slowly selling that this (failed) offensive hasn't been able to achieve its full potential.

 

[John Fedup]

The offensive does seem to be faltering. The lost months of not supplying critical needed kit allowed the Russians ample time to develop deep defensive lines. The extraordinary delay in offering decent jets will likely be fatal for Ukraine ever regaining territory from the 2022 invasion (Crimea definitely gone). Even the recent F-16 offers will be of zero value for at least 2-3years unless there are foreign operator “volunteers”

 

[rsemmes]

From a tactical and strategic POV, if Ukraine can get get an armoured through the Russian defences and behind Russian lines, they have a good chance of creating havoc for the Russians and possibly cut the land bridge to Crimea. They are quite capable of doing that because they are far more flexible than the Russians.

I think those are two very big "if". We could say that if RU had a gnrl. with imagination, he could do the same. At Izyum, RU retreated, at the begining of the war, UKR retreated; there was no "decision", even less any "strategic decision". Reaching the sea is even more overoptimistic, I cannot see any 1940 Guderian here.
In this thread we got posts about UKR incompetence and about using those reserve bde to take just another hamlet, I don't think they are that "quite capable"; they faced no mines in Davydid Brid, they faced militia in Kupiansk and not enough rifles in both of them if I remember right

 

[Feanor]

That's the problem, to many idiots in the west who should know better think that the this is supposed to be a repeat of last years lightning advances. The Russians have had time to fort up and build their defences. They have been laying minefields willy nilly in front of their main defensive lines.

There is nothing willy nilly about it. Russian use of minefields is very deliberate. That's what makes it successful. The giant quantity makes it seem like they're just dumping mines all over the place, but this isn't true. We've seen Ukrainian units explore what appear to be corridors in the minefields only to hit dead ends and get ambushed by Russian artillery or other long range fires. We've seen Ukrainian efforts to move through the minefields with no apparent Russian presence only to realize there are hidden LP/OPs in the treeline directing strikes against the column and remote minelayers closing the gaps behind them.

It also appears that they may be changing how they are undertaking their defence strategy, with un confirmed reports that they are moving into the widespread distribution of fuel and ammo stores away from the big large dumps to many smaller and better hidden ones. We'll see how the Ukrainians react to that.

This is last years' news. Russia did this after the advent of HIMARS strikes last year. They still have some locations get hit some of the time, so continuing efforts to this effect are probably ongoing. But the big shift came last year.

On topic: UKR running out of men.

Ukraine’s army is running out of men to recruit, and time to win

Victory may be in sight for Vladimir Putin

www.telegraph.co.uk

It is the Torygraph, not the best one, but it seems that the west is slowly selling that this (failed) offensive hasn't been able to achieve its full potential.

It's a garbage tier article and should be ignored. The manpower struggles Ukraine faces are not because they're running out of men, it has to do with trained personnel. And Ukraine's pre-war population wasn't 44 million. I wouldn't trust any of the numbers in that piece. The recruiting challenges come because people don't want to serve, not because there are no people left.

That's the problem, to many idiots in the west who should know better think that the this is supposed to be a repeat of last years lightning advances. The Russians have had time to fort up and build their defences. They have been laying minefields willy nilly in front of their main defensive lines. It also appears that they may be changing how they are undertaking their defence strategy, with un confirmed reports that they are moving into the widespread distribution of fuel and ammo stores away from the big large dumps to many smaller and better hidden ones. We'll see how the Ukrainians react to that.

Not just the idiots though. Ukraine's initial attacks were by larger armored groups with mineclearing vehicles, and small mobile groups whose goal was clearly to maneuver around Russian strong points and exploit their maneuverability like they did in Kharkov last year. Unless you consider the Ukrainian planners and their western advisers as idiots, this was clearly the idea from people who in theory should know what they're doing. In all likelihood the surprise came in the effectiveness of Russian infantry on the front lines (remember it's primarily a bunch of marines, VDV, SpN, and recon elements fighting in this minefield grey zone) that were able to effectively man the LP/OPs spread around the minefields, the role played by Ka-52s. Russian attack helicopters have been thoroughly underwhelming this war, and the Ka-52 emerging as a major piece of the defense was a surprise likely to all involved, and the flexibility of the Russian defense effort, unlike the stubborn, often pointless, attacks the Russian military engaged in over the year preceding this.

There is actually a danger here for Russia. If the best forces Russia has also take significant casualties in this fight, the regular infantry defending the main lines might do far worse, and Ukraine might have an easier time breaking through the "main defenses" then they did trying to chew their way through the minefields.

 

[Jaykaro]

Feanor could you elaborate on the topic of attack helicopters? Specifically, the Ka-52 has proven itself quite well, unlike the Mi-28.

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t.me

Rybar still claim southern part of Robotyne in Russian Hands. Thus this is still in line with claims for several days that Robotyne or Robotino is still disputed front. So far despite it is Pro Russian telegram, Rybar quite accurate on progress in the ground.

Judging by yesterday's video, a significant portion is under Ukraine's control. There are a couple of photos from today as well, but it's difficult to identify the terrain there

 

[Feanor]

Feanor could you elaborate on the topic of attack helicopters? Specifically, the Ka-52 has proven itself quite well, unlike the Mi-28.

Sure. It's a combination of a fairly advanced EO station, couple with very long range ATGMs. It's an example of how limited application of modern tech can take older equipment and make it relevant in new ways. The upgrades to the Vikhr ATGM have given it a range of 10 kms, and the new EO makes it possible (often barely) to identify targets at those kinds of ranges. As a result even an essentially Soviet-era beam riding ATGM can now comfortably out-range most SHORAD and thus attack Ukrainian vehicles in an open area with relative impunity. The Mi-28N doesn't have quite as advanced of an EO station, and initially wasn't configured to carry the Vikhr-1, so it was less successful. And when Ukrainian forces launched large attacks across deep minefields this both gave Russian forces enough time to get helos in place to counter, and made for relatively easy targets. On the flip side getting SHORAD into the minefield itself to protect those assets is hard and even when it's there, it's likely to get out-ranged by the Ka-52 as we saw in the video where it just takes out a Strela-10.

Judging by yesterday's video, a significant portion is under Ukraine's control. There are a couple of photos from today as well, but it's difficult to identify the terrain there
View attachment 50752

It's clear Ukrainian forces are inside the village but it seems fairly clear that Russian forces are also still inside it. It's likely that Ukrainian forces hold the north and Russian forces the south. The center is likely a no-mans land, and anything more specific then that is not very reliable due to both the changing situation on the ground, and the fog of war. I think the outcome here will be that Ukrainian forces take the village, the question is at what cost. In all likelihood these last few gains will be the tail end of Ukraine's counteroffensive efforts, unless something pretty big happens.

 

[Stuart M]

I don't "wtf" people when I talk to them. (I think you used "punch").
I don't "simplify". (I don't think Y/N is an argument).
If "force is..." is all you read, read again, please. (War is politics by other means, valid or not, is).
I will simplify for you: War. (UN has been mentioned, every (western?) country has been playing according to UN rules since then?).

I read about the Napoleonic Wars, I read about Rome, these new (UN) set of rules are not going to be respected. Yes, a lot of cynicism here. Again: "Stop quoting the law, we carry weapons". (I thought it was Scipio, it was Pompey; different wordings for the quote).
Again, off topic.

On topic: UKR running out of men.

Ukraine’s army is running out of men to recruit, and time to win

Victory may be in sight for Vladimir Putin

www.telegraph.co.uk

It is the Torygraph, not the best one, but it seems that the west is slowly selling that this (failed) offensive hasn't been able to achieve its full potential.

If all you can think of is the past then your future will forever be a repetition of its misery.
We have such things as the UN, its predecessor the League and other institutions because although imperfect, we hope for a future that is better. Are nations imperfect and bending or breaking rules they themselves preach? Sure, that doesn't mean we don't make the attempt because warfare is a retrograde step that makes things worse for everyone.

On that theme, we don't punch people in the face when we disagree with them, not just because its illegal but because that sort of behaviour taken across society as a whole impoverishes all of us physically, mentally and makes everyone poorer as a result. Indeed is also a very good sign of a nation who has lost the argument, so if all you've got is "Stop quoting the law, we carry weapons" then you have no argument, and to borrow from Maggie Thatcher

"If they attack one personally, it means they have not a single political argument left."

I think this is apt cause if all you've got is war, violence and misery to offer then not only have you lost the argument then you have lost any right to be counted within the bounds of civilisation.
---
As for the Ukrainian offensive and casualties, I think that history does provide some perspective on such matters.

First Battle of the Somme | Summary, Location, Outcome, Casualties, Significance, & Facts | Britannica

In the first day, 20000 dead and over 37000 wounded.

Yet in 1918 we had the 100 day offensive that led to the defeat of the German army.

This is a long war, and it is nowhere near reaching its conclusion.

 

[Ananda]

Lol antoher mutiny threat, with what? Their leaders are dead and mostt of their heavy equipment was seized. FSB has the names of the lower level commanders as well, dont see much in their future.

More likely they're going to be send from Belarus to Niger or other African Hot Spot.

 

[hauritz]

If Prigozhin was on that plane I wonder how it will be reported on Russian media. I can’t imagine the government taking responsibility for shooting it down and they couldn’t credit the Ukrainians. I guess just an airplane accident although that footage looks suspiciously like an airplane that just took a missile hit.

I notice that a lot of reporters actually now call this Sudden Russian Death Syndrome.