Russia - General Discussion.

[Big_Zucchini]

So that pretty much narrows down the mystery Putin-Lukashenko-Prigozhin deal to 2 primary options:
1. Grab your things and leave by the count of 10.
2. Fake your death and live as a cosplay Arab warlord.

 

[vikingatespam]

Looks like Prigozhin finally had the "accident" we were all waiting for.

"Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin 'on board' crashed Russian plane"

Unconfirmed eye witness reports say that the Wagner private jet was actually shot down by a Russian SAM near Saint Petersburg.

Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin presumed dead after Russia plane crash

The Russian private military company boss was on the passenger list of the jet which came down near Moscow.

www.bbc.com

How are they going to spin this one. Smoking in the cockpit?

Sadly, Prig. died from window cancer heart attack Tea poisoning being blatantly shot down by RU AD.

Raise your hand if this surprises you.

 

[Feanor]

Towards the end of the video another aircraft is seen crossing from the left at a lower altitude.
Is this an air traffic corridor, or was that a military jet?
MB

If I understand correctly, there were two business jets of which one went down. The one with Prigozhin.

 

[Ananda]

Every scenario from Pure Accident, Accidents in Making or even part of self disappearing are actually can happen. This is Russia afterall.

If I'm Prigo, self disapearing to Niger can be attractive options. I'm bit skeptical Putin want to send AA Missiles to Prigo's jet. Too obvious, unless his circle believes blatant massage is preferable. Still not doing too much effect now days.

 

[vikingatespam]

If Prigozhin was on that plane I wonder how it will be reported on Russian media. I can’t imagine the government taking responsibility for shooting it down and they couldn’t credit the Ukrainians. I guess just an airplane accident although that footage looks suspiciously like an airplane that just took a missile hit.

I notice that a lot of reporters actually now call this Sudden Russian Death Syndrome.

At least this puts the final nail into Wagner as a cohesive force. A win for UKR.

A cant believe anyone in RU (or anywhere else outside of Moonofalbama.org) will buy into this as an accident.

 

[T.C.P]

Some Russian chatter were syaing that Putin used an AD asset to allow the airforce revenge on Putin for the shootdowns during the mutiny. This is pure rumour though.
But if I was a VKS officer whose colleague or even batch mate died suring Piro's coup attempt, I would have been super happy with this.

 

[John Fedup]

Every scenario from Pure Accident, Accidents in Making or even part of self disappearing are actually can happen. This is Russia afterall.

If I'm Prigo, self disapearing to Niger can be attractive options. I'm bit skeptical Putin want to send AA Missiles to Prigo's jet. Too obvious, unless his circle believes blatant massage is preferable. Still not doing too much effect now days.

I think this event was absolutely a message to others debating over who is really in charge. Others are no doubt on the soon to be departing list.

 

[KipPotapych]

If Prigozhin was on that plane I wonder how it will be reported on Russian media. I can’t imagine the government taking responsibility for shooting it down and they couldn’t credit the Ukrainians. I guess just an airplane accident although that footage looks suspiciously like an airplane that just took a missile hit.

Seems like explosives on board would be the logical choice, no?

 

[ngatimozart]

Piro and Utkin dead. Who is next? I wonder how long it takes for Surovikin to have a heart attack or a stroke.

They let old Piro meet a bunch of the African delegation in the last couple of months, maybe Putin convinced him he was safe and he still had his uses and the poor bugger let his guard down. This was inevitable.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/15z9o53
https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/15zae2c
Some chatter that the trail of smoke in the second video is proof of the missile that took out the plane. Maybe someone here more knowledgable can confirm if that is true.

Wanger mouthpiece teegram channel

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1694430797258732024

Lol antoher mutiny threat, with what? Their leaders are dead and mostt of their heavy equipment was seized. FSB has the names of the lower level commanders as well, dont see much in their future.

Ok, nothing is certain at the moment as I write this. All of the Russian sources that claim that Prigozhin et al., have fallen off their perch, died, deceased, met their maker, departed this mortal coil etc., are not known for their strong association with facts. So less of the fanciful speculation would be appreciated. There are far more unknowns than knowns in this case and we should just be careful with what we do know and what we don't know.

Here a link to a video of the crashed Embraer Legacy.

Wagnerleider Prigozjin mogelijk aan boord van neergestort privévliegtuig

Hij staat op de passagierslijst, zeggen de Russische autoriteiten. Dat hij ook echt aan boord was, is niet bevestigd.

nos.nl

Theoretically it can be an accident, but the circumstances make it very suspicious. If it was really a liquidation, than it wasn't done in a subtile way. Some witnesses report about explosions before the crash, like some kind of air defence system was activated.

Why does it have to be subtle? If it's to subtle the desired message doesn't get out and the message is the one that Putin will want to be driven home. That's if he was indeed the one who ordered this liquidation.

Something happened behind the scenes with Surovikin that we don't know.

Yes, I concur and we have problems because there's a significant amount that we don't know. Putin's govt, like an authoritarian dictatorship, is very good at hiding the nice juicy details. In fact Putin's govt is very good at keeping the juicy stuff hidden and murky.

For sure. Any ideas/guesses on what went on?

What would you like? For all we know it could be the Illuminati, Klingons, or the Borg. We just don't know and guessing won't achieve anything.

Not an accident, a warning to others.

That is distinctly a possibility, but not the only one.

Sadly, Prig. died from window cancer heart attack Tea poisoning being blatantly shot down by RU AD.

Ah, but do we actually know that There is more than one logical possibility for this.

Every scenario from Pure Accident, Accidents in Making or even part of self disappearing are actually can happen. This is Russia afterall.

Agree.

If I'm Prigo, self disapearing to Niger can be attractive options. I'm bit skeptical Putin want to send AA Missiles to Prigo's jet. Too obvious, unless his circle believes blatant massage is preferable. Still not doing too much effect now days.

It would not surprise me if Putin did this because it would get his message across loud and clear. Anyone who betrays him, no matter who they are, will suffer the consequences.

Seems like explosives on board would be the logical choice, no?

No, because the Wagner Security people would have checked the aircraft for any unknown explosives. It's standard security operating procedure.

 

[swerve]

A real conspiracy theorist would say it was explosives planted by a Wagner security person personally loyal to Prigozhin, & Prigozhin wasn't aboard & has sneaked away to somewhere he thinks he can hide from Putin . . . .

 

[ngatimozart]

What we do know.

1. A business jet crashed approximately 180 miles north east of Moscow.
2. The jet is alleged to have been Prigozhin's aircraft.
3. The crash occurred exactly two months after Prigozhin began his mutiny.
4. Prigozhin and 8 others of his Wagner leadership team are listed on the flight manifest.
5. There are at least two different videos on Telegram allegedly showing the aircraft falling to its doom.
6. There are some claims on Telegram that the aircraft was shot down with one of the videos above allegedly showing a missile attack.
7. All the prime sources for this are not known for their ability to stick to the facts.
8. The Russian media, social media posters etc., responded very quickly to this incident. Apparently videos were surfacing within minutes of the crash claiming it was Prigozhin's aircraft and he was on it. For instance the flight passenger manifest was released surprisingly quickly.

IMHO these are the possible causes.

1. Putin ordered the hit on Prigozhin and his senior leadership team. Why?
   1. Prigozhin betrayed him and Putin loathes betrayal more than anything else.
   2. Putin requires to show that he is in control and anyone, regardless of whom, who betrays him will suffer dire consequences.
   3. Prigozhin challenged the status quo and directly challenged Putin, hence he is a threat that had to be eliminated.
   4. Putin's response to Prigozhin's mutiny showed that he was weak and Putin had to face this head on.
   5. Revenge.
2. The Russian MOD / Military. Why?
   1. Prigozhin directly attacked Shoigu, Gerasimov and the MOD and whether his allegations against them were correct or incorrect, they had to react.
   2. Prigozhin's Wagner Group is also a direct and powerful competitor to Shoigu's mercenary force. Shoigu would be wanting Wagner's lucrative contracts, and the removal of Wagner from the business will benefit him financially.
   3. Revenge.
3. A mob hit; i.e., a Russian organised crime hit.
4. Ukraine: One way of removing a capable enemy from the war. We know that the Ukrainians have SF sabotage teams operating within Russia.
5. Russian anti Putinist forces. There have been claims of such forces operating within Russia.

That's all I can think of at the moment.

 

[Stampede]

What we do know.

1. A business jet crashed approximately 180 miles north east of Moscow.
2. The jet is alleged to have been Prigozhin's aircraft.
3. The crash occurred exactly two months after Prigozhin began his mutiny.
4. Prigozhin and 8 others of his Wagner leadership team are listed on the flight manifest.
5. There are at least two different videos on Telegram allegedly showing the aircraft falling to its doom.
6. There are some claims on Telegram that the aircraft was shot down with one of the videos above allegedly showing a missile attack.
7. All the prime sources for this are not known for their ability to stick to the facts.
8. The Russian media, social media posters etc., responded very quickly to this incident. Apparently videos were surfacing within minutes of the crash claiming it was Prigozhin's aircraft and he was on it. For instance the flight passenger manifest was released surprisingly quickly.

IMHO these are the possible causes.

1. Putin ordered the hit on Prigozhin and his senior leadership team. Why?
   1. Prigozhin betrayed him and Putin loathes betrayal more than anything else.
   2. Putin requires to show that he is in control and anyone, regardless of whom, who betrays him will suffer dire consequences.
   3. Prigozhin challenged the status quo and directly challenged Putin, hence he is a threat that had to be eliminated.
   4. Putin's response to Prigozhin's mutiny showed that he was weak and Putin had to face this head on.
   5. Revenge.
2. The Russian MOD / Military. Why?
   1. Prigozhin directly attacked Shoigu, Gerasimov and the MOD and whether his allegations against them were correct or incorrect, they had to react.
   2. Prigozhin's Wagner Group is also a direct and powerful competitor to Shoigu's mercenary force. Shoigu would be wanting Wagner's lucrative contracts, and the removal of Wagner from the business will benefit him financially.
   3. Revenge.
3. A mob hit; i.e., a Russian organised crime hit.
4. Ukraine: One way of removing a capable enemy from the war. We know that the Ukrainians have SF sabotage teams operating within Russia.
5. Russian anti Putinist forces. There have been claims of such forces operating within Russia.

That's all I can think of at the moment.

Did Prigozhin actually die or not I cannot say but at a guess I'd have to say yes.
Either way with may Russian generals seemingly having a shorter than expected life expectancy how does this recent plane crash and the expected demise of the Wagner leadership affect the Ukraine / Russian war.
I cannot see it as a positive for Russian leadership in the field.

Any thoughts.


Regards S

 

[Milne Bay]

What we do know.

1. A business jet crashed approximately 180 miles north east of Moscow.
2. The jet is alleged to have been Prigozhin's aircraft.
3. The crash occurred exactly two months after Prigozhin began his mutiny.
4. Prigozhin and 8 others of his Wagner leadership team are listed on the flight manifest.
5. There are at least two different videos on Telegram allegedly showing the aircraft falling to its doom.
6. There are some claims on Telegram that the aircraft was shot down with one of the videos above allegedly showing a missile attack.
7. All the prime sources for this are not known for their ability to stick to the facts.
8. The Russian media, social media posters etc., responded very quickly to this incident. Apparently videos were surfacing within minutes of the crash claiming it was Prigozhin's aircraft and he was on it. For instance the flight passenger manifest was released surprisingly quickly.

IMHO these are the possible causes.

1. Putin ordered the hit on Prigozhin and his senior leadership team. Why?
   1. Prigozhin betrayed him and Putin loathes betrayal more than anything else.
   2. Putin requires to show that he is in control and anyone, regardless of whom, who betrays him will suffer dire consequences.
   3. Prigozhin challenged the status quo and directly challenged Putin, hence he is a threat that had to be eliminated.
   4. Putin's response to Prigozhin's mutiny showed that he was weak and Putin had to face this head on.
   5. Revenge.
2. The Russian MOD / Military. Why?
   1. Prigozhin directly attacked Shoigu, Gerasimov and the MOD and whether his allegations against them were correct or incorrect, they had to react.
   2. Prigozhin's Wagner Group is also a direct and powerful competitor to Shoigu's mercenary force. Shoigu would be wanting Wagner's lucrative contracts, and the removal of Wagner from the business will benefit him financially.
   3. Revenge.
3. A mob hit; i.e., a Russian organised crime hit.
4. Ukraine: One way of removing a capable enemy from the war. We know that the Ukrainians have SF sabotage teams operating within Russia.
5. Russian anti Putinist forces. There have been claims of such forces operating within Russia.

That's all I can think of at the moment.

Or it is a complete fabrication - maskirovska if you will. He must know that he is a marked man, so Prigozhin faking his own death to take the heat off himself - so that he can quietly disappear, is not beyond the realms of possibility.
MB

 

[John Fedup]

Probability is the guide, number one being themost likely with number two a distant second. Even if Two is the answer Putin would have known and allowed them to proceed. Wouldn’t have told them he knew just in case they screwed up.

 

[OPSSG]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1694535388424003957

1. According to ISW, the Kremlin have been destroying the Wagner Group & weakening Prigozhin’s authority since the rebellion – and the assassination of #Wagner’s top leadership was likely the final step to eliminate Wagner as an independent organization.

2. A Russian insider source claimed that Prigozhin’s “hasty” departure to & from Africa was in response to the GRU's plans and measures to undermine Wagner’s presence in Africa — which suggests a trap to get him to fly back.

 

[Bob53]

What we do know.

1. A business jet crashed approximately 180 miles north east of Moscow.
2. The jet is alleged to have been Prigozhin's aircraft.
3. The crash occurred exactly two months after Prigozhin began his mutiny.
4. Prigozhin and 8 others of his Wagner leadership team are listed on the flight manifest.
5. There are at least two different videos on Telegram allegedly showing the aircraft falling to its doom.
6. There are some claims on Telegram that the aircraft was shot down with one of the videos above allegedly showing a missile attack.
7. All the prime sources for this are not known for their ability to stick to the facts.
8. The Russian media, social media posters etc., responded very quickly to this incident. Apparently videos were surfacing within minutes of the crash claiming it was Prigozhin's aircraft and he was on it. For instance the flight passenger manifest was released surprisingly quickly.

IMHO these are the possible causes.

1. Putin ordered the hit on Prigozhin and his senior leadership team. Why?
   1. Prigozhin betrayed him and Putin loathes betrayal more than anything else.
   2. Putin requires to show that he is in control and anyone, regardless of whom, who betrays him will suffer dire consequences.
   3. Prigozhin challenged the status quo and directly challenged Putin, hence he is a threat that had to be eliminated.
   4. Putin's response to Prigozhin's mutiny showed that he was weak and Putin had to face this head on.
   5. Revenge.
2. The Russian MOD / Military. Why?
   1. Prigozhin directly attacked Shoigu, Gerasimov and the MOD and whether his allegations against them were correct or incorrect, they had to react.
   2. Prigozhin's Wagner Group is also a direct and powerful competitor to Shoigu's mercenary force. Shoigu would be wanting Wagner's lucrative contracts, and the removal of Wagner from the business will benefit him financially.
   3. Revenge.
3. A mob hit; i.e., a Russian organised crime hit.
4. Ukraine: One way of removing a capable enemy from the war. We know that the Ukrainians have SF sabotage teams operating within Russia.
5. Russian anti Putinist forces. There have been claims of such forces operating within Russia.

That's all I can think of at the moment.

You missed that plane fell out of a window…

 

[Feanor]

For sure. Any ideas/guesses on what went on?

Presumably he was somehow involved with Prigozhin, it's just not clear how or what the details are. There is still a lot of fog surrounding the details of the coup attempt.

 

[KipPotapych]

No, because the Wagner Security people would have checked the aircraft for any unknown explosives. It's standard security operating procedure.

Doesn’t guarantee anything though. And I am not saying that was the case, but answered the question about how it would be presented. Also,

The Baza news outlet, which has good sources among law enforcement agencies, reported that investigators were focusing on a theory that one or two bombs may have been planted on board.

Putin breaks silence after Wagner boss Prigozhin's plane crashes

Russian President Vladimir Putin sent his condolences to the family of Yevgeny Prigozhin on Thursday, breaking his silence after the mercenary leader's plane crashed with no survivors two months after he led a mutiny against army chiefs.

www.reuters.com

Haha.

I don’t believe in “conspiracy theories”. The simplest explanation is usually the correct one. Prigozhin is dead. The plane was likely shot down by the MoD with Putin’s blessing - ie, they “conspired” together, or the MoD provided the solution and Putin gave his approval. Prigozhin ended up being far from the smart man he portrayed himself to be (always had my doubts, personally): his “coup” plan was dumb, staying in Russia was dumb, flying from Moscow to St. Petersburg and thinking you are good was even dumber.

 

[Feanor]

Doesn’t guarantee anything though. And I am not saying that was the case, but answered the question about how it would be presented. Also,

The Baza news outlet, which has good sources among law enforcement agencies, reported that investigators were focusing on a theory that one or two bombs may have been planted on board.

Putin breaks silence after Wagner boss Prigozhin's plane crashes

Russian President Vladimir Putin sent his condolences to the family of Yevgeny Prigozhin on Thursday, breaking his silence after the mercenary leader's plane crashed with no survivors two months after he led a mutiny against army chiefs.

www.reuters.com

Haha.

I don’t believe in “conspiracy theories”. The simplest explanation is usually the correct one. Prigozhin is dead. The plane was likely shot down by the MoD with Putin’s blessing - ie, they “conspired” together, or the MoD provided the solution and Putin gave his approval. Prigozhin ended up being far from the smart man he portrayed himself to be (always had my doubts, personally): his “coup” plan was dumb, staying in Russia was dumb, flying from Moscow to St. Petersburg and thinking you are good was even dumber.

Is a shootdown simpler then Russian security services planting a bomb? I'm not sold, since a shootdown could be observed and air defense fires involve service member personnel that are likelier to leak information then state security services.

 

[John Fedup]

Is a shootdown simpler then Russian security services planting a bomb? I'm not sold, since a shootdown could be observed and air defense fires involve service member personnel that are likelier to leak information then state security services.

Reasonable counter arguments about the methods used but any service members tasked with such an operation (shoot down) would have been carefully selected by vested interests in the military hierarchy who despised Prigozhin. That being said, Putin might consider the message more important and missile observation be damned.