Russia - General Discussion.

Ananda

The Bunker Group
global south buying oil from Russia isn't a flaw in the price cap - it's a feature.
What amaze is the thinking on Western media and think tank pundits, that somehow market will not adjust. Market will touting Western demand.

Market will adjust, Market will shift, and it is just part of natural market mechanics. The naive is the thinking even in Western politicians, that they can dictate market mechanics.


I'm not going to discuss Proff Sachs argument on Ukrainian War results, cause it is debatable. More on his opinions on why Global South not following and won't be dictate by West on interacting with Russia. Because he has track records being used by several developing/ emerging markets government and central banks.

I don't agree with Proff Sachs comparison between 19th century GBP and 20th-21st centuries USD. For one thing USD already reach level of International usage that surpass GBP even in their hight at 19th century on global trade. However I do agree and even many market players in West, that weaponising USD is very counterproductive for USD status as Global currency.

I also agree with him, that pushing China and Russia closer to each other, basically is counter strategy with what US done and aim in cold War era. The thinking of Russia demise seems justified by some, on letting Russia closing in with China. However this is also part why Western sanctions to Russia so far not bring Russian economy breakdown as many EU and US leadership say when they put economic sanctions to Russia.

This thread is for West and Russian interaction. However discounting the rest of the world especially Global South interaction with Russia on this matter, simply naive. Cause this is the reason why Western sanctions not bring results as much as being hope before.

Why some western media and pundits buffle, on the global south not following the West, is what Proff Sachs point out. Some in West simply not comprehend the idea, that Global South will not buying Western POV on this war.
 
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KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
After writing the post, I decided to “voluntarily” move it to the Gen Russia thread as it probably belongs here. Sorry, Larry.

It may seem silly, but that is what they are feeding their population on a daily basis, as well as the children abducted from Ukraine. You see the same thing to a much lesser extent in the US during many unpopular wars. Each side feeds the other. The difference is Russia currently has no internal restraint. NATO was created around an idea. The current state is not ideal, although it does have promise. The idea is that most people can live well worldwide, especially those in NATO. The UN could be the same if an alternative to the veto situation could be implemented. Ukraine is not fighting for the free world. They are fighting for themselves, Russia's neighbors, and the idea that people can live well in relative freedom from oppression. In a sense they are also fighting for the Russian people.
This “feeding” isn’t really a new thing though and neither is the daily basis. In fact, it never stopped, aside from a few years (even then, not really) in the early 90’s. Naturally, it would only increase in the current environment. Same is true for the other side. Absolutely agree, each side feeds the other, which is a problem and why we are here in the first place.

While silly, in my opinion, it is a real issue because it is pushed on people as reality. I mean many people really believe that Russia wants to occupy Poland, Baltic States, etc; basically, you name it, Russia wants it. Not only they want it, but they will try to take it. And this is a complete rubbish, of course, but it works. Real issues are not looked at and dealt with in any serious manner but followed by escalation. In fact, they are presented as complete nonsense and nonissues, simply made up stuff. To make it relevant to this thread and keep the discussion on track, take NATO expansion as an example and Ukraine in particular, how it got to where it is today. There are many opinions published on the subject, some better, some worse, some completely invalid. Any NATO expansion was always a great concern for Russia. The early stages of the expansion were always met with criticism (even sense of betrayal), which was always communicated to the counterparts. For example, back from nearly 30 years ago, a few excerpts from a NYT article discussing the issue (interestingly, and partially my point, compare what Yeltsin and Clinton were saying back then and what was said before and after the beginning of the current crisis - in fact, for years and decades);

In caustic tones reminiscent of the cold war, President Boris N. Yeltsin of Russia bluntly told other world leaders in this former Communist capital that NATO was trying to split Europe with its plan to admit members from the former Warsaw Pact and that the United States should not be allowed to dominate the world.[…]

Today Mr. Yeltsin reminded his European and North American partners gathered in the Communist-modern Budapest Convention Center of Russia's eminent role in making foreign policy in Europe.

Obviously angered by the NATO decision last week to begin defining the conditions for NATO membership, Mr. Yeltsin lashed out at those nations that would leave him out of what the Americans call "the new security architecture" for Europe. Russia fears that a group of NATO-equipped armies on its western borders could become a threat.

"Why are you sowing the seeds of mistrust?" Mr. Yeltsin asked the 16 NATO members about the prospect of increasing their membership, adding that in the aftermath of the cold war, "Europe is in danger of plunging into a cold peace."[…]

Mr. Clinton's hurried appearance at the opening of the two-day meeting did not bridge the expanding gap between the two countries.

"NATO will not automatically exclude any nation from joining," he said. "At the same time, no country outside will be allowed to veto expansion."


I would suggest reading the entire article because it is quite reminiscent of the events that took place that are quite relevant to what is happening today, what happened in Yugoslavia, etc. And just for the sake of irony, what was said and quoted above, was said none other place but Budapest and the article is from December 6, 1994.

The irony of Mr. Izetbegovic's dramatic presentation was that while he was speaking, the leaders who hold the key to a Bosnian settlement were not there. Mr. Clinton, Mr. Yeltsin, Mr. Mitterrand and Mr. Major were attending a ceremony in which they pledged in writing to give Ukraine security assurances in exchange for its formal agreement to become a non-nuclear power.

Almost forgot the article itself: YELTSIN SAYS NATO IS TRYING TO SPLIT CONTINENT AGAIN (Published 1994)

I could provide numerous quotes and links from over the past three decades, as thankfully some older reports have been digitized and are not hard to find, but I believe the above makes it pretty clear that issues that were voiced have never been resolved, or even addressed properly in the first place. There were attempts, sure, but never a resolution. In fact, simply reading the quoted parts above, that were said long before there was any (open and serious) talk about Ukraine joining NATO and NATO’s borders were still far and away from Russia, and compare to the conversations that took place a couple of years ago and prior, one may assume that it is two idiots talking, repeating themselves over and over and over

Here is an excerpt from a decent paper titled Russian Perception of the Atlantic Alliance. The paper is from the late 90’s.

However, the condition of international anarchy is not immutable and is mitigated by a number of institutions and practices, such as alliances, international law and the practice of diplomacy, which forge trust and cooperation between states. However, the key factor which is critical to the success of these instruments is the existence of mutual perceptions of trust forged on a common sense of purpose and identity. Where such perceptions do not exist, and where there remain significant sources of mutual suspicion and distrust, then the danger of an escalating spiral of a mutual sense of insecurity - the so-called "security dilemma" - is an ever-present possibility. Robert Jervis who has written most fully on the role of perceptions in international relations illustrates this in the following way:

Once a person develops develops am image of the other -ambiguous and even discrepant information will be assimilated to that image. ... If they think that a state is hostile, behaviour that others might see as neutral or friendly will be ignored, distorted, or seen as attempted duplicity. This cognitive rigidity reinforces the consequences of international anarchy.


And another:

However, the success of the Founding Act should not obscure the strength of the continuing Russian opposition to NATO enlargement, which President Boris Yeltsin indicated in his speech in Paris at the signing of the Founding Act and which reflects a near consensus in the Russian political spectrum. The reality is that Russia remains resolutely opposed to the principal argument of the advocates of NATO enlargement that it would bring stability to Central Europe which is as much in Russia's interest as the West's.

And the last one:

The principal conclusions are that Russia continues to have a highly ambivalent, and at times explicitly negative, attitude to NATO and the post-Cold War developments within NATO.

Here is an excerpt from another article from 2020:

A majority of young Russians distrust NATO more than any other organization and disagree that Russia is a European country, according to a recent poll conducted by Russia’s independent Levada Center and Germany’s Friedrich Ebert Foundation.

These organizations’ research on the opinions of Russia’s “Generation Z” (aged 14 to 29) revealed that 80 percent expressed a strong to moderate degree of distrust toward NATO.


The article: Poll: Majority of Young Russians Distrust NATO, Don’t Consider Russia a European Country | Russia Matters. You can imagine what the older generations think.

So yes, while silly, the (same) drums are being drummed and nothing is changing. When two kids are arguing by simply repeating the same thing to each other, we, as reasonable adults, advise them to change their approach in order to find a resolution. In this case, it seems most capable (I mean they were elected to the highest positions by the masses!) adults keep doing the exact same for decades and we let them. The stakes are quite a bit higher though than a couple of kids arguing over something completely meaningless outside of their world.

As this has gotten a but out of hand on my part, I will be extremely brief in my response to the remaining points and will try to fit it all in one post.

In regards to NATO being created around an idea. Soviet Union, for example, was created around an idea too. That idea also meant well, believe it or not. The idea was also that people can live well worldwide, especially those in the Union. I am almost laughing out loud here as I write this, but it is true. While we all know how that went, the point is that there are different ideas around. In other words, refer to the first excerpt from the Russian Perception paper above.

The UN doesn’t matter because those capable will always act in their own interest and those (or at least some of those) who can benefit will support (or st least not oppose) the capable party. Even NATO doesn’t exactly matter in this context.
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
Looks like I went way overboard anyway. So here is the remaining part of the post that didn’t fit as it had already been written.

I agree, Ukraine is not fighting for the free world. However, the idea has been proposed and pushed, especially in the beginning of the invasion, as well as later. I am not going to look much and provide a bunch of examples, but here is the very first result Google has thrown at me on the subject, and I mean the very first top result, an article from Foreign Affairs dated April 2023:

Europeans were inspired by the visit of U.S. President Joe Biden to Warsaw and Kyiv in February. Biden reaffirmed that while the United States is far away, it is committed to freedom in Europe—and understands, as we do, that Ukraine is fighting for the freedom of all of us.

Source: The Free World Must Stay the Course on Ukraine

There are articles (though in Ukrainian outlets) actually titled that they are fighting on behalf of the free world (another top Google result of the same search):


I am sure everyone (many? some?) remembers this angle being publicized by various politicians and analysts, as well as opinion pieces in numerous media outlets.

They are fighting for themselves. And not even “all of themselves”, but they decided that they are. Currently, they are fighting for the land most of which they probably won’t get back.

As for the neighbours, they surely learned the lesson of what not to do if you do not want your country to be completely trashed. And the only oppression some of them have is coming from their own leaders. None have military capabilities that Ukraine had prewar, but none were like Ukraine either. Most also seem to realize that Russia is their biggest neighbour, but also their biggest market, which includes labour. And so on. In other words, most are really better off to be “friends” or partners, call it what you will, with the Russian Federation, it seems. Even in today’s circumstances. Look at the way Georgia has been acting since the beginning of this war - nearly under threat of sanctions from the friendlies. It is pretty hard to drown a whale!

But things sure are changing too. Here would be an example of Azerbaijan and Armenia (and Turkey). There are some changes in Kazakhstan as well. But all this is, perhaps, for some other thread or another time.

As for fighting for the Russians themselves, and I understand exactly what you meant by it, but I do not believe this is the case, even in the sense that you put to it. Reading numerous posts and articles written in the past couple of years, it appears that some people believe that Ukraine is some island of bright democracy that has been fighting Mordor for the past three decades for their survival and survival of their bright “western” ideals, etc. This is not the case, obviously. In fact, there is very little difference between Russia and Ukraine in this sense. The Ukrainian leaderships and oligarchs have been bankrupting and robbing the country for decades. Looking at the stats, you would, for example, note that Ukraine has lower output than Kazakhstan, but has double the population. Sure, oil and whatnot, but Ukraine had enormous resources “inherited” from the Union. What happened? Well, in short, corruption and the leaders that, while robbing them blind, had to balance between the west and east of the country and the two sides had a completely different vision of where the future of the country should lie. It was a delicate balance, but then came 2013, the idiots it brought to power, and here we are today. By no means I am saying here that, for example, Kazakhstan is something to strive for, or Russia itself, for that matter (should be obvious, but I wanted to specifically point it out in case there is some misunderstanding and confusion here).

I posted a link here some time ago to, as well as some excerpts from, a memorandum from the American archives, a transcript of the conversation between Bush senior (and another US politician or two) and a couple of Russian politicians of the time… I can’t believe I am drawing a blank on their names… Seriously… Anyway, the conversation basically ends with the Russian counterparts saying they aren’t excluding the Yugoslavia scenario for Ukraine (in view of the referendum that took place in Crimea back in the day and the conversation took place a few months prior) and no one acted surprised; in fact, sending well wishes and goodbyes were said on that note. Three decades later, however, everyone is surprised and doesn’t know how we got here.

Last thing, in regards to living relatively free from oppression. Nearly 3M refugees left to Russia since the beginning of invasion. That would be out of 8M that left the country. The numbers are probably outdated and don’t include the people that left prior to the invasion (Donbas wasn’t exactly a peaceful place for almost a decade). Even if we assume that some were relocated by force, the number is still significant and is not marginal. So the key word in your postulate seems to be “relatively”.
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
This is interesting (via Google translate):

Army General Sergei Surovikin has been relieved of the post of Commander-in-Chief of the Aerospace Forces, RBC reported, citing sources and former editor-in-chief of "Echo of Moscow" Alexey Venediktov (recognized as a foreign agent). Sergey Surovikin has held this post since October 31, 2017. At the same time, he will continue to serve in the Ministry of Defense. According to RBC, the general is currently on "short-term leave."

 
Looks like Prigozhin finally had the "accident" we were all waiting for.

"Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin 'on board' crashed Russian plane"

Unconfirmed eye witness reports say that the Wagner private jet was actually shot down by a Russian SAM near Saint Petersburg.


How are they going to spin this one. Smoking in the cockpit?
 
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John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Well I guess this isn’t a surprise. I wonder who the other poor sods were that got terminated for being with Putin’s former helper?

Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin 'on board' crashed Russian plane Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin 'on board' crashed Russian plane

Edit: I know it is early days but I really see zero possibility on a real accident here. Probably Prigozhin not actually being on the jet has a much higher probability than an accident!
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Well I guess this isn’t a surprise. I wonder who the other poor sods were that got terminated for being with Putin’s former helper?

Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin 'on board' crashed Russian plane Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin 'on board' crashed Russian plane
Not sure what that guy thought was going to happen after he agreed to back off on his coup. For quite the realist and mercenary warlord, he sure was awfully naive. And he had a big window to escape.

This is interesting (via Google translate):

Army General Sergei Surovikin has been relieved of the post of Commander-in-Chief of the Aerospace Forces, RBC reported, citing sources and former editor-in-chief of "Echo of Moscow" Alexey Venediktov (recognized as a foreign agent). Sergey Surovikin has held this post since October 31, 2017. At the same time, he will continue to serve in the Ministry of Defense. According to RBC, the general is currently on "short-term leave."

He was replaced by Viktor Afzalov. There's a good chance Surovikin is also going to meet an untimely demise, though there of course are no guarantees.


Putin cracking down on billionaire corruption, even more funny than Claude Rains' line in Casablanca, "arrest the usual suspects".

Russia's so desperate to get its billionaires and their massive wealth back that it just threatened to seize the assets of an oligarch worth $13 billion (msn.com)
This is completely par the course. Remember, Putin came to power and immediately came down hard on existing oligarchs. People forget the Berezovsky and Khodorkovsky situations. Cracking down on oligarchs attempting to play their own game is Putin 101, going back to his roots if you will. And given how... "well liked" the oligarchs are by the Russian public, this could actually improve his domestic position with the general population.
 
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ImperatorOrbis

New Member
Any of you here Russians? Ananda, Feanor? How are these "accidents" reported in Russia? And what does the public think about known public figures having "accidents"?
Wasn't Prigozhin a war hero or something?

Also a little silly prediction. Wagnerites in Belarus rebel, take Lukashenko hostage and start a Belarus civil war.
 
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KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
Not sure what that guy thought was going to happen after he agreed to back off on his coup. For quite the realist and mercenary warlord, he sure was awfully naive. And he had a big window to escape.
Agreed. Especially since the deal was he would leave the country. Not as smart of a cookie.
He was replaced by Viktor Afzalov. There's a good chance Surovikin is also going to meet an untimely demise, though there of course are no guarantees.
Was wondering if the plane crashed where Surovikin is “taking his rest”. Weird how this worked out for the man. Seemed like a very capable commander.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Agreed. Especially since the deal was he would leave the country. Not as smart of a cookie.

Was wondering if the plane crashed where Surovikin is “taking his rest”. Weird how this worked out for the man. Seemed like a very capable commander.
Something happened behind the scenes with Surovikin that we don't know.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Any of you here Russians? Ananda, Feanor? How are these "accidents" reported in Russia? And what does the public think about known public figures having "accidents"?
Wasn't Prigozhin a war hero or something?

Also a little silly prediction. Wagnerites in Belarus rebel, take Lukashenko hostage and start a Belarus civil war.
I'm Russian, though not living there anymore. I even know someone who worked for Prigozhin, though in an administrative capacity. In my experience he's a controversial figure. Some people think he's great. Some people think he's terrible human being. Social background, and people's general political vies tend to figure into this.

For news reports here's RIA Novosti and Kommersant;


Both reports are very muted and basic fact-based. Plane crashed, he was on the passenger list, MChS is working, 8 bodies found. No mention of Russian air defenses shooting down the plane, no real theories on what happened.
 

T.C.P

Well-Known Member
Piro and Utkin dead. Who is next? I wonder how long it takes for Surovikin to have a heart attack or a stroke.

They let old Piro meet a bunch of the African delegation in the last couple of months, maybe Putin convinced him he was safe and he still had his uses and the poor bugger let his guard down. This was inevitable.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/15z9o53

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/15zae2c
Some chatter that the trail of smoke in the second video is proof of the missile that took out the plane. Maybe someone here more knowledgable can confirm if that is true.

Wanger mouthpiece teegram channel


Lol antoher mutiny threat, with what? Their leaders are dead and mostt of their heavy equipment was seized. FSB has the names of the lower level commanders as well, dont see much in their future.
 
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Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
Here a link to a video of the crashed Embraer Legacy.

Theoretically it can be an accident, but the circumstances make it very suspicious. If it was really a liquidation, than it wasn't done in a subtile way. Some witnesses report about explosions before the crash, like some kind of air defence system was activated.
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
There is a video here:


The woman filming a diving plane says something like “they shot it down, it was hit twice, two explosions and look it’s falling; look, there is debris falling too…”

The same article says the investigators will look into three versions: pilot’s error, technical issues, and outside impact.

Edit: Via Goole translate from here: Стали известны предполагаемые пассажиры разбившегося под Тверью самолета

According to the publication, businessman Yevgeny Prigozhin and commander of the private military company (PVK) "Wagner" Dmitry Utkin could have been on board. This was also reported by the head of the Zaporozhye public movement "We are together with Russia" Vladimir Rogov.

In addition to Prigozhin and Utkin, the plane could have an operator, a PMC logistician and personal security of the entrepreneur. According to the Ministry of Emergency Situations, there were ten people on board the jet, none of them survived.

At the moment, the Ministry of Emergency Situations is conducting search work. It is noted that the crash occurred near the village of Kuzhenkino. The Embraer Legacy aircraft operated a flight from Moscow to St. Petersburg.
 
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John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Here a link to a video of the crashed Embraer Legacy.

Theoretically it can be an accident, but the circumstances make it very suspicious. If it was really a liquidation, than it wasn't done in a subtile way. Some witnesses report about explosions before the crash, like some kind of air defence system was activated.
Not an accident, a warning to others.
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
The names of passengers and crew members of the plane that fell in the Tver region have been published. The list was posted by the Federal Air Transport Agency (Rosaviatsia) in its Telegram channel.

Among them are Evgeny Prigozhin and Dmitry Utkin, founder and commander of the private military company Wagner. Passengers are also Nikolai Matuseev, Valery Chekalov, Alexander Totmin, Evgeny Makaryan and Sergey Propovyn.

Edit: source, sorry: Опубликован список пассажиров разбившегося в Тверской области самолета
 

Milne Bay

Active Member
There is a video here:


The woman filming a diving plane says something like “they shot it down, it was hit twice, two explosions and look it’s falling; look, there is debris falling too…”

The same article says the investigators will look into three versions: pilot’s error, technical issues, and outside impact.

Edit: Via Goole translate from here: Стали известны предполагаемые пассажиры разбившегося под Тверью самолета

According to the publication, businessman Yevgeny Prigozhin and commander of the private military company (PVK) "Wagner" Dmitry Utkin could have been on board. This was also reported by the head of the Zaporozhye public movement "We are together with Russia" Vladimir Rogov.

In addition to Prigozhin and Utkin, the plane could have an operator, a PMC logistician and personal security of the entrepreneur. According to the Ministry of Emergency Situations, there were ten people on board the jet, none of them survived.

At the moment, the Ministry of Emergency Situations is conducting search work. It is noted that the crash occurred near the village of Kuzhenkino. The Embraer Legacy aircraft operated a flight from Moscow to St. Petersburg.
Towards the end of the video another aircraft is seen crossing from the left at a lower altitude.
Is this an air traffic corridor, or was that a military jet?
MB
 

spoz

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
Video certainly appears to show at least one explosion before the debris flutters to the ground. Aircraft certainly broke up at altitude.
 
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