The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Larry_L

Active Member
Reports from Kherson that Ukraine has ambushed a Russian convoy SE of Nova Kakhovka. This may have been a troop convoy. All I find so far is on twitter, and that is difficult to research without a twitter account.



Zelensky is cleaning house again. This time in the recruitment offices. Off you go to prison, or the front, or maybe retire. Replacements are to come from front line veterans. Amputees may apply. Putin could benefit from mirroring this action in some areas.



For what it is worth, here is the latest report from "Sarcastosaurus" AKA Tom Cooper.

 

rsemmes

Member
I am reading old posts in this forum, trying to get up to date, (it seems I was on the wrong one all this time), a lot of "Russia is done" rushed conclusions even in this one (Lyman, Kupyansk and more), sometimes even funny to read the "past" and what is going on now and the comments about it (and who did it).
Yes, wisdom after-the-fact.

Now, AFAIK all Soviet tanks can create a smoke screen by injecting diesel (not the T-80 {?)). I was watching a(n) (old) video of a retreating tank (T-72), where is the smoke?, where are the nets?
A drone is going to find you, but first it has to look at you... and it is a very long line of trees (and more that one line at that).
Some of the rearguard deployment seems to be more than "casual", both sides.
What's going on? (Obviously, we only see those where sthing got hit). Can we find all those "missed" videos anywhere?, only after the war?
I feel almost a bit "insulted" by all that amateurism.

(All right, more than a bit arrogant here, but I do know that we can do better, it's about my life).
Only one opinion.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Minor update, I'll try to do a more detailed one later tonight. Overall not much has changed. Both sides appear to be out of steam for any major movements.

Zaporozhye.

It appears Urozhaynoe is now in the same boat as Staromayorskoe, with Russian forces either contesting or holding the southern outskirts, Ukrainian forces holding the northern outskirts, and the middle of the village being a no-man's land. This was a predictable outcome, since the position of the village isn't great, and Russian forces have already held it longer then I would have thought.

Artemovsk/Bakhmut

Russia has halted Ukraine's advance on Klescheevka, Andreevka, and Kudryumovka and then counter-attacked at Klescheevka, apparently retaking the southern outskirts of the village, placing it firmly back in Russian hands at least for now. There is also evidence of a failed Russian counter-attack at Andreevka.

Oskol Front.

Russian forces continue to inch forward across various sections of the front, gaining a little ground near Kupyansk, finally clearing Novoselkovo, and continuing to creep forward on the Kremennaya-Liman axis.
 

Mainframe

New Member
Hi guys I just joined DT and am therefore new to this thread, so can I ask what your current (August 2023) thinking is on the conflict, namely who do you think will win, Russia or Ukraine or neither?
A follow-up question is- Exactly what do both sides think they have to do to achieve a victory?
Here's a July 2023 map showing how things stand now, Putin seems to have satisfied himself by occupying the pro-Russian Donbas region and the territory linked to Crimea, and has dug in to let the Ukrainians knock themselves out against his fortified line-

war-Ukr-july-2023.jpg
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
An interesting article. Sounds truthful:


Art
It reads like typical propaganda tripe. "Putin's genocide", "new terrorist attacks by Russians ", "jury of dead Ukrainian children", an unsubstantiated claim that Russian intends to conquer all Ukrainian lands... where was the outrage when Ukraine shelled a market in Donetsk? Oh sorry... "But while there is metaphorical blood on many hands, Russia and Russians wield the murder weapon alone." It doesn't count when it's Donbas children... :rolleyes:

Nevermind that there is 0 evidence that Biden is preparing to surrender Ukraine to Putin, or that the US along with many other countries have flooded Ukraine with mountains of weapons, the only reason Ukraine is still in this war.

"Finally, we can conclude that once Biden understood that Putin would invade Ukraine, he prepared to surrender instead of fight. When, in November or December, the Biden administration was 100 percent confident that Putin would invade in weeks, they failed to properly equip Ukraine for deterrence or for war. "

As if preparing Ukraine for war is America's job. Maybe a better question is why 30 years of post-Soviet rule have left Ukraine a third world country? Instead of blaming the west of not saving Ukraine's bacon, maybe look to the looter-capitalist robber-barons that have run the country (and bled the country white) in the post-Soviet era. Don't get me wrong, I see why one wouldn't want Biden negotiating behind Ukraine's back with Putin. But this article is propaganda piece through and through.
 
Hi guys I just joined DT and am therefore new to this thread, so can I ask what your current (August 2023) thinking is on the conflict, namely who do you think will win, Russia or Ukraine or neither?
A follow-up question is- Exactly what do both sides think they have to do to achieve a victory?
Here's a July 2023 map showing how things stand now, Putin seems to have satisfied himself by occupying the pro-Russian Donbas region and the territory linked to Crimea, and has dug in to let the Ukrainians knock themselves out against his fortified line-

View attachment 50725
Also a new member here, my thinking is that the war goes one of two ways - either the US /NATO push Ukraine into a negotiated settlement that gives Russia much of what they wanted at the outset of the war (Crimea, Donbass, neutral military status for Ukraine), or the war continues until Ukraine's armed forces are ground down enough that they collapse and Ukraine signs an armistice. The latter of course carries with it the possibility of European intervention (particularly Polish), which opens a whole different can of worms.

Overall the long term picture for Ukraine is bleak. They do not have the military-industrial or administrative structures in place to make a total war possible, and total war is what would be required to win. Russia has shown that they can maintain the current pace, and their military industrial production has begun to pick up. Russia is fighting this war without really using their air force and with a single (so far) round of mobilization needed. They have primarily used up old stockpiles of equipment and are only recently having to deploy newly manufactured equipment to the front to meet their needs.

Meanwhile Ukraine is fighting with a hodgepodge of Western and Soviet era equipment, with insufficient logistical support or proper maintenance, without an air force, and with a manpower base that is being scraped dry due to a combination of high casualties, emigration, and corrupt/ineffective administrative officials. Western material support was geared toward the short term and for many reasons is an unreliable and insufficient solution to the problems Ukraine faces if this war is to continue for years to come.

To make matters worse, it seems that Ukrainian propaganda has effectively convinced their population that they are winning and Zelensky is now faced with the fact that if he signs a peace deal that cedes territory to Russia, he would be wise to flee the country as the Ukrainian population at large would feel blindsided and betrayed.
 

2007yellow430

Active Member
It reads like typical propaganda tripe. "Putin's genocide", "new terrorist attacks by Russians ", "jury of dead Ukrainian children", an unsubstantiated claim that Russian intends to conquer all Ukrainian lands... where was the outrage when Ukraine shelled a market in Donetsk? Oh sorry... "But while there is metaphorical blood on many hands, Russia and Russians wield the murder weapon alone." It doesn't count when it's Donbas children... :rolleyes:

Nevermind that there is 0 evidence that Biden is preparing to surrender Ukraine to Putin, or that the US along with many other countries have flooded Ukraine with mountains of weapons, the only reason Ukraine is still in this war.

"Finally, we can conclude that once Biden understood that Putin would invade Ukraine, he prepared to surrender instead of fight. When, in November or December, the Biden administration was 100 percent confident that Putin would invade in weeks, they failed to properly equip Ukraine for deterrence or for war. "

As if preparing Ukraine for war is America's job. Maybe a better question is why 30 years of post-Soviet rule have left Ukraine a third world country? Instead of blaming the west of not saving Ukraine's bacon, maybe look to the looter-capitalist robber-barons that have run the country (and bled the country white) in the post-Soviet era. Don't get me wrong, I see why one wouldn't want Biden negotiating behind Ukraine's back with Putin. But this article is propaganda piece through and through.
lets agree to disagree.

Art
 

StingrayOZ

Super Moderator
Staff member
It reads like typical propaganda tripe. "Putin's genocide", "new terrorist attacks by Russians ", "jury of dead Ukrainian children", an unsubstantiated claim that Russian intends to conquer all Ukrainian lands... where was the outrage when Ukraine shelled a market in Donetsk? Oh sorry... "But while there is metaphorical blood on many hands, Russia and Russians wield the murder weapon alone." It doesn't count when it's Donbas children..
Kasporov is a difficult figure.

His world views are confusing and polarising, his politics ineffective. There isn't enough real politik in Kasparov to be effective. Kasparov is very anti-putin, arguable the most anti Putin voice from a Russian, if he even considers himself that any more. Even the anti-putin crowd tend to leave Kasparov out as his is just too bonkers and disconnected from reality.

As for acquisitions that America is playing great power politics. Well, no shit. There is more at play than just Ukraine. Levelling criticism for meeting Chinese, Russian officals and resolving issues with Iran, well, did he wake up yesterday?

He seems surprised that the US isn't sending all their weapons, and isn't fighting the war for Ukraine. And that the US seems to keep bargaining chips up its sleeve rather than an all out bet the house effort with Ukraine.

Kasparov also overtly simplifies America. Everyone in the US supports Ukraine? To what level? Has he seen America? There is a whole lot more going on in the US than supporting Ukraine, that doesn't even make the top 5 concerns for America.

It is time to make a choice: either Ukrainians enjoy the same right to freedom, life, and liberty that all humans do, or they do not. We either fight hard for a world of rules and values, or we do not. Bill Burns, John Kerry, and Jake Sullivan live in a world where the great powers set the rules and small countries must obey. So does Putin.
Well wake up Kasparov. Running the world is hard. Should the US back Greece and Turkey in their war against each other? Should the US and Russia not work together on issues like Syria. China is 10 times the problem Russia is, and offers an existential threat to global order and US supremacy and perhaps US cohesion. So the US and China shouldn't work together on climate change?

Why isn't Kasparov fighting China? Or Iran? Or invading Saudi Arabia? Personally. As a one man army with is followers.

Europe is ultimately Europe's problem. Western Europe is way closer to this fight, and its a fight they should be leading both Ukrainian support and diplomatic leadership and military capabilities. US has lead peace in Europe for 70 years? the EU has an economy the size of the US economy, it has smart people, it can solve its own problems.

Asking the US to sacrifice everything because Ukrainians deserve to be free, well first, why didn't the Ukrainians prepare more effectively for war? Why didn't Western Europe prepare more effectively for war? Why wasn't European diplomacy effective that the whole Ukrainian diplomacy effort relies on great power US-Russia diplomacy? Why wasn't Ukraine in NATO? Why wasn't Ukraine in the EU? Why does Ukraine find itself where it is today, where as say Poland finds itself in a very different position. Why wasn't Finland/Sweden in NATO? Why didn't the US bomb Finland and Sweden, when they weren't in nato? This absurd polarization white and black holyer than thou shit is pointless. Why didn't Kasparov become Russia's President? Why isn't he head of the UN? why does poverty exist? why hasn't Kasparov solved racism.

This idea that middle powers and micro powers can demand the US to do everything is absurd and stupid. The US isn't that powerful (not before and definitely not now), and your cause isn't that noble. The soviet union collapsed, it wasn't destroyed by Ukrainians rising up and kicking them out. Then it was overrun by corruption and political confusion.

Does Kasparov really believe everything the US does is because of some moral code? Or perhaps Kasparov, because the US believes that its in the US interests to do it?

Zelenski isn't some magical political force, with a deep and complex political narrative and theology behind him. Hes and actor/comedian. He stood up when the rest of the political elite stuffed their pockets with cash and left. He is the fucking voice of Paddington bear. Zelenski is clearly still dealing with issues of corruption, ineffectiveness and political mess inside of Ukraine. Hes doing a great job, but it is still a mess.

How is the US to know what Ukraine is determined to keep if that aren't even willing to fight for it? 2015 wasn't exactly a high point of national unity in Crimea.

Ukraine isn't an existential threat to the US. War with China possibly is.

I can see why Kyiv post published. Yes, the US can sometimes horse trade small countries for greater power games. Welcome to planet earth.

The lesson is there for everyone, not just Ukraine. America/Others help those who help themselves. Which is why we have seen a spate of wishy washy appeasement nation states start to suddenly and with great vigor pick sides. Suddenly seeking munitions and weapons that fit to NATO standards are important. Sovereign production capability, is important.

Because if you want serious help, it doesn't just fall out of the sky. You also need to ask why would help come? There needs to be some unifying interest, not just be reliant on the magical good will of others. You need to be clear where you stand before the lights go out and people start getting stabbed in the neck.

Australia has the tightest alliance with the US. Has tremendous cultural and historical ties with the US. Rupert Murdoch owns all the media. We are as tightly aligned and embedded as we can be. We have a treaty forged from WWII. We are 5,000km+ away from any real opponent, and that opponent have to work its way through the US and 5 of the largest economies to get to little old Australia.
We sit on an uninvadable, impossible to naval blockade, continent full of resources and huge strategic depth. But no one is sitting on their hands thinking the Americans are going to do all the fighting. Our complaint to the Americans is they won't let us have F-22's and why can't we buy SSN faster. If you want influence with the Americans, you have to sit at the table with them.

How people believe that the Americans will ride in and save them every time some one throws a rock is absurd.
 

Larry_L

Active Member
Also a new member here, my thinking is that the war goes one of two ways - either the US /NATO push Ukraine into a negotiated settlement that gives Russia much of what they wanted at the outset of the war (Crimea, Donbass, neutral military status for Ukraine), or the war continues until Ukraine's armed forces are ground down enough that they collapse and Ukraine signs an armistice. The latter of course carries with it the possibility of European intervention (particularly Polish), which opens a whole different can of worms.


Overall the long term picture for Ukraine is bleak. They do not have the military-industrial or administrative structures in place to make a total war possible, and total war is what would be required to win. Russia has shown that they can maintain the current pace, and their military industrial production has begun to pick up. Russia is fighting this war without really using their air force and with a single (so far) round of mobilization needed. They have primarily used up old stockpiles of equipment and are only recently having to deploy newly manufactured equipment to the front to meet their needs.

Meanwhile Ukraine is fighting with a hodgepodge of Western and Soviet era equipment, with insufficient logistical support or proper maintenance, without an air force, and with a manpower base that is being scraped dry due to a combination of high casualties, emigration, and corrupt/ineffective administrative officials. Western material support was geared toward the short term and for many reasons is an unreliable and insufficient solution to the problems Ukraine faces if this war is to continue for years to come.

To make matters worse, it seems that Ukrainian propaganda has effectively convinced their population that they are winning and Zelensky is now faced with the fact that if he signs a peace deal that cedes territory to Russia, he would be wise to flee the country as the Ukrainian population at large would feel blindsided and betrayed.
I do not see any of what you say to be valid. Most, if not all of the countries actively supporting Ukraine have stated that they will support as long as is needed. In the US Ukraine has bipartisan support, with some members from both parties pushing for more support. Russia's rattling of their nuclear saber has lost much of it's impact. It is almost as likely that this will end with Ukraine getting most of what it is asking for.

Meanwhile support is ramping up with Ukraine getting more and more of what it asks for. F-16 fighters are finally in the works. Better late than never. Taurus cruise missals are becoming closer to being shipped if possibly being degraded somewhat. The GDP of the countries supporting Ukraine far exceeds that of Russia. Russia Is using it's air force to the best of it's ability, and continually losing more ground than it gains for quit a while now. The hodgepodge of equipment is in many cases superior to what Russia is fielding for the most part, their log lines are much shorter, and much of their damaged equipment is repaired. In some cases it is replaced. From what I have seen, once something is supplied, that capability is supported or even enhanced.

Yes, there is Ukrainian propaganda. We have all seen that. Your post smells much like Russian, or MAGA propaganda.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Also a new member here, my thinking is that the war goes one of two ways - either the US /NATO push Ukraine into a negotiated settlement that gives Russia much of what they wanted at the outset of the war (Crimea, Donbass, neutral military status for Ukraine), or the war continues until Ukraine's armed forces are ground down enough that they collapse and Ukraine signs an armistice. The latter of course carries with it the possibility of European intervention (particularly Polish), which opens a whole different can of worms.

Overall the long term picture for Ukraine is bleak. They do not have the military-industrial or administrative structures in place to make a total war possible, and total war is what would be required to win. Russia has shown that they can maintain the current pace, and their military industrial production has begun to pick up. Russia is fighting this war without really using their air force and with a single (so far) round of mobilization needed. They have primarily used up old stockpiles of equipment and are only recently having to deploy newly manufactured equipment to the front to meet their needs.

Meanwhile Ukraine is fighting with a hodgepodge of Western and Soviet era equipment, with insufficient logistical support or proper maintenance, without an air force, and with a manpower base that is being scraped dry due to a combination of high casualties, emigration, and corrupt/ineffective administrative officials. Western material support was geared toward the short term and for many reasons is an unreliable and insufficient solution to the problems Ukraine faces if this war is to continue for years to come.

To make matters worse, it seems that Ukrainian propaganda has effectively convinced their population that they are winning and Zelensky is now faced with the fact that if he signs a peace deal that cedes territory to Russia, he would be wise to flee the country as the Ukrainian population at large would feel blindsided and betrayed.
Yeah, this is pretty far off. Russia has increased defense production considerably but Russia hasn't exactly gone for the total war approach, likely due to concerns with domestic stability. When Russia tried to mobilize 300 000 men, more then double that number left the country. Many came back once they realized the mobilization was a once-off event, but it shows you the nature of the situation. Russian use of Soviet stockpiles isn't some sort of clever saving of modern equipment. Russian production isn't enough to saturate the front with modern equipment. T-90Ms and BMP-3s leave the factory and end up in the front a few short months later, after being passed to the military and crews getting some time to train. Artillery production remains glacial, with practically all replacement artillery pieces coming from storage. The mass use of S-60s on trucks isn't a virtue. It's desperation. Don't get me wrong, both side are doing it, but that's kind of my point. Russia's ability to use air power is limited by Russia's failure in the SEAD/DEAD department. Again, it's not that they can't do it at all, but it's that they can't do it to the point where they can establish air dominance and them bomb Ukraine's ground forces into sawdust. Gliding bombs, a staple of western militaries for decades have only recently made an appearance in the Russian arsenal (no doubt with Iranian help) and Russia is relying on their long range strikes (combination of shaheds and cruise missiles) to keep Ukrainian air defenses busy and short on missiles, to have more or less a free reign closer to the front lines. Emphasis on more or less.

For Ukraine, they're fighting with anything that gets handed to them. And mostly it's been fairly consistent kit. Ukraine got ~1k M113s. That's not a hodgepodge, that's a massive and relatively standardized vehicle fleet. Ukraine also got buckets of T-72s and BMP-1s from all over. This matches existing gear, and again is supplied in quantities by the hundreds. Those a considerable-sized unified vehicle fleets. Same goes for MaxxPro MRAPs, humvees, and other common western kit. The quantities supplied are quite large. The hodgepodge part only started recently with a mix of Bradleys, CV90s, and Marders. But even then Bradleys supplied are over 100, and Marder deliveries are likely to continue too (as Germany re-arms with Pumas). Even if some things like VABs, and XA-180s are relatively uncommon, they represent a small portion of total kit. They may suffer from maitenance delays due to delivery issues or scarcity of uncommon spares, but again they're the exception. Ukraine's industrial capacity is irrelevant. Foreign aid is the driver here. Ukrainian tanks are being repaired in Poland and Ukraine is getting kit shipped en masse from all over the world, including many non-NATO members. Finally while Ukraine's airforce can't contest the skies, it continues to deliver unpleasant strikes, in the form of Storm Shadow cruise missiles, HARM strikes against Russian air defense, etc. This won't stop, it will only continue and expand in geography. Ukraine doesn't have the benefit of lobbing hundreds of gliding bombs each month, but has better intel from all the NATO ISR/SIGINT/ELINT/AEW flying around the perimeter as well as much better satellite intel. Lastly Ukraine is nowhere near scraping their manpower dry. Ukraine has a shortage of trained personnel. Not a shortage of population. At least not yet. Ukrainians aren't eager to fight, and many, when not well trained, perform poorly or even surrender early on. But there are plenty of replacements available. The scale of casualties simply isn't high enough for Ukraine to actually deplete it's mobilization potential. Ukraine can keep this current level of losses up for years, assuming nothing drastic happens internally to alter the stability of Ukraine's government.

As for Ukraine's population, they're not convinced they're winning. They've lived with their government's lies for a long time. However don't mistake their often casual cynism about the authorities in Kiev with a willingness to let Russia come and take over. From what I've seen, Ukraine's population understands that they're in a big and bloody war, with no obvious end in sight. They're not eager to be drafted for the next great counter-offensive, but they're a long way from marching on Kiev to hang Zelensky from the nearest lamp post. I even suspect many would quietly be ok with a peace that hands Russia the Donbas, and in exchange opens a road to EU/NATO membership for the rest of the country. As long as it means lasting peace and some sort of effort to rebuild. In other words, a peace along some sort of compromise lines would likely be acceptable.
 

koxinga

Well-Known Member
So in short, unless there is a dramatic escalation such as total war mobilisation, we are likely to see this drag out or until both sides had enough and want solution.

One quick question though, the presidency in Ukraine has a 5 year term limit from what I read. Is the plans still to hold elections in 2024 or will they postpone it? Politically, it would not be healthy or ideal. But a change in government in the middle of a hot war seems... challenging.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

Zaporozhye.


A Leo-2A6 stuck in a ditch takes a hit from a loitering munition to the side but appears to survive, though likely with some damage. The insufficient payload of the Lancet has been discussed ad nauseam.


A failed Ukrainian attack on Urozhaynoe. Note they're all riding BMP-3s. This is the first use of captured BMP-3s in this area and indicates a new unit is operating here.


Unclear if the same attack as above but Ukrainian forces accidentally drowned a T-72 in the Mokrie Yaly river near Urozhaynoe.


Allegedly a Ukrainian MBT getting hit by a Russian strike. Can't tell what it is.


Allegedly a Leopard 2 getting hit in Zaporozhye, observed (likely struck by) the 22nd SpN.


Knocked out Leo-2A4, context unclear.


A VAB, and MOWAG Eagle II destroyed on mines, Zaporozhye region.


Russian Ka-52 fires, Vremyevskiy bulge.


A destroyed Bradley getting evacuated.


A burning Bradley near Rabotino.


A Bradley is picking up the crew of a knocked out Leo-2A6, but when artillery hits, the IFV bails, apparently abandoning one of the crew.


2 Ukrainian Humvees destroyed on landmines, Zaporozhye.


A destroyed M113 near Malaya Tokamachka.


Russian 2S3 fires on a Ukrainian strong point, Zaporozhye.


Ukrainian 2S3 getting hit by a Russian loitering munition.


Russian forces capture a Mastiff MRAP, from Ukraine's 37th Brigade.


Ex-Afghan Mi-17 spotted in Zaporozhye, near a destroyed Bradley with BRAT ERA.


Russian struck the Reikartz hotel in Zaporozhye. Reportedly some foreign fighters were staying there but substantiation is lacking.


Russia has set up cell towers all along the land corridor into Crimea. It's unclear if this has military significance.


Artemovsk/Bakhmut.

It appears Russia has counter-attacked in Klescheevka and regained control of the southern outskirts of the village. Note the real issue is taking the hills south and south-west of it, without control of which Klescheevka will be threatened.


Russian strikes near Klescheevka, one against a Ukrainian machinegun position, the other against a 2S1.


Another CV90 got hit, near Artemovsk/Bakmhut. A Ukrainian unit is operating these between the Kremennaya area and Artemovsk/Bakhmut.


Oskol Front.

Russia's creeping advance on the Liman axis continues, with Russian forces gaining a few additional marginal positions. Near Kupyansk Russian forces have made more incremental gains and are clearly preparing to assault Sin'kovka, a suburb of Kupyansk.


Russia struck a suspected Ukrainian brigade HQ in Kupyansk with gliding bombs.


Russian TOS-1 fires near Kupyansk.


Some footage of Russian snipers on the Kupyansk axis.


The village of Novoselkovo is apparently now under Russian control. The village is basically rubble, and there is relatively little strategic value.


Captured Ukrainian munitions in the Karamazinovka area. Russia launched a successful attack across the Zherebets river here, but has been halted by Ukrainian counter-attacks, after capturing a series of villages. It's likely Russia is in a forced operational pause.


A Ukrainian D-20 hit somewhere on the Oskol front.


Artillery strikes from Russian units on a Ukrainian strong point somewhere between Svatovo and Kremennaya.


Russian Grad units operating on the Kremennaya-Liman axis and TOS-1A somewhere on the Oskol front.



Ukrainian armored vehicle parked near a treeline hit by Russian artillery Kremennaya-Liman axis.


Russian loitering munition strike against apparently a Ukrainian Strela-10 near Kremennaya.


Ukrainian GAZ-66 and pickup burned by Russian artillery in the woods near Kremennaya.


Other interesting tidbits.

Some interesting footage of a cross-Dnepr raid by Ukrainian forces.


In Kherson region a Russian btln commander has been captured near Kazachya Lopan'. There are some reports indicating he was leading a counter-attack against a Ukrainian landing party.


A rare DNR 324mm missile system is apparently still in action. The accuracy is no doubt terrible.


Two Ukrainian S-200s were shot down near the Crimean bridge. While Russian sources indicate that Ukraine has adapted them for striking ground targets, I think this is incorrect. They're never part of any combined strike package aimed at anything. Instead they seem to be aimed at probing Russian air defenses, possibly identifying their location.


Despite US pressure it appears Egypt doesn't want to supply Ukraine even after being caught trying to supply Russia.


It appears Russia has managed to fully localize the Shahed drones from Iran. This isn't much of a surprise, they're not exactly complex.


In Mariupol', two 9-tonn blast furnaces have been restored and are apparently ready to resume working at the Azovelektrostal' plant.

 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
One quick question though, the presidency in Ukraine has a 5 year term limit from what I read. Is the plans still to hold elections in 2024 or will they postpone it? Politically, it would not be healthy or ideal. But a change in government in the middle of a hot war seems... challenging.
Probably no elections next year. From BBC (via google translate):

BBC: And finally - will there be elections in Ukraine next year?

Volodymyr Zelenskyi: This is a global issue. If we win, they will. So, there will be no wartime, there will be no war.

And elections must take place in peacetime, when there is no war, according to the law. I really want there to be peace in the next year, and life to be as it was before the war.


 

T.C.P

Well-Known Member
Update.

Zaporozhye.

A Leo-2A6 stuck in a ditch takes a hit from a loitering munition to the side but appears to survive, though likely with some damage. The insufficient payload of the Lancet has been discussed ad nauseam.


A failed Ukrainian attack on Urozhaynoe. Note they're all riding BMP-3s. This is the first use of captured BMP-3s in this area and indicates a new unit is operating here.


Unclear if the same attack as above but Ukrainian forces accidentally drowned a T-72 in the Mokrie Yaly river near Urozhaynoe.


Allegedly a Ukrainian MBT getting hit by a Russian strike. Can't tell what it is.


Allegedly a Leopard 2 getting hit in Zaporozhye, observed (likely struck by) the 22nd SpN.


Knocked out Leo-2A4, context unclear.


A VAB, and MOWAG Eagle II destroyed on mines, Zaporozhye region.


Russian Ka-52 fires, Vremyevskiy bulge.


A destroyed Bradley getting evacuated.


A burning Bradley near Rabotino.


A Bradley is picking up the crew of a knocked out Leo-2A6, but when artillery hits, the IFV bails, apparently abandoning one of the crew.


2 Ukrainian Humvees destroyed on landmines, Zaporozhye.


A destroyed M113 near Malaya Tokamachka.


Russian 2S3 fires on a Ukrainian strong point, Zaporozhye.


Ukrainian 2S3 getting hit by a Russian loitering munition.


Russian forces capture a Mastiff MRAP, from Ukraine's 37th Brigade.


Ex-Afghan Mi-17 spotted in Zaporozhye, near a destroyed Bradley with BRAT ERA.


Russian struck the Reikartz hotel in Zaporozhye. Reportedly some foreign fighters were staying there but substantiation is lacking.


Russia has set up cell towers all along the land corridor into Crimea. It's unclear if this has military significance.


Artemovsk/Bakhmut.

It appears Russia has counter-attacked in Klescheevka and regained control of the southern outskirts of the village. Note the real issue is taking the hills south and south-west of it, without control of which Klescheevka will be threatened.


Russian strikes near Klescheevka, one against a Ukrainian machinegun position, the other against a 2S1.


Another CV90 got hit, near Artemovsk/Bakmhut. A Ukrainian unit is operating these between the Kremennaya area and Artemovsk/Bakhmut.


Oskol Front.

Russia's creeping advance on the Liman axis continues, with Russian forces gaining a few additional marginal positions. Near Kupyansk Russian forces have made more incremental gains and are clearly preparing to assault Sin'kovka, a suburb of Kupyansk.


Russia struck a suspected Ukrainian brigade HQ in Kupyansk with gliding bombs.


Russian TOS-1 fires near Kupyansk.


Some footage of Russian snipers on the Kupyansk axis.


The village of Novoselkovo is apparently now under Russian control. The village is basically rubble, and there is relatively little strategic value.


Captured Ukrainian munitions in the Karamazinovka area. Russia launched a successful attack across the Zherebets river here, but has been halted by Ukrainian counter-attacks, after capturing a series of villages. It's likely Russia is in a forced operational pause.


A Ukrainian D-20 hit somewhere on the Oskol front.


Artillery strikes from Russian units on a Ukrainian strong point somewhere between Svatovo and Kremennaya.


Russian Grad units operating on the Kremennaya-Liman axis and TOS-1A somewhere on the Oskol front.



Ukrainian armored vehicle parked near a treeline hit by Russian artillery Kremennaya-Liman axis.


Russian loitering munition strike against apparently a Ukrainian Strela-10 near Kremennaya.


Ukrainian GAZ-66 and pickup burned by Russian artillery in the woods near Kremennaya.


Other interesting tidbits.

Some interesting footage of a cross-Dnepr raid by Ukrainian forces.


In Kherson region a Russian btln commander has been captured near Kazachya Lopan'. There are some reports indicating he was leading a counter-attack against a Ukrainian landing party.


A rare DNR 324mm missile system is apparently still in action. The accuracy is no doubt terrible.


Two Ukrainian S-200s were shot down near the Crimean bridge. While Russian sources indicate that Ukraine has adapted them for striking ground targets, I think this is incorrect. They're never part of any combined strike package aimed at anything. Instead they seem to be aimed at probing Russian air defenses, possibly identifying their location.


Despite US pressure it appears Egypt doesn't want to supply Ukraine even after being caught trying to supply Russia.


It appears Russia has managed to fully localize the Shahed drones from Iran. This isn't much of a surprise, they're not exactly complex.


In Mariupol', two 9-tonn blast furnaces have been restored and are apparently ready to resume working at the Azovelektrostal' plant.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/15qy7zl An entire battery ( or maybe half) of S-300 getting wiped out in Nikolaev. IThere is still controversy over the date of this strike.

If it was recent, we are talking about a strike that is more than 50km from the front line. From the video it is unclear what was used in the strike, But it does not look similar to the Iskander strikes I have seen so far (granted that I am no expert in ushc matters anyways). I wonder what was used, some commenters suggesting Fab-500s while others are saying Tornado S. I have no clue.

On the note of the domestic Russian Geran production, has there been any Russian milblogger chatter regarding production capacities?
 

StingrayOZ

Super Moderator
Staff member
So in short, unless there is a dramatic escalation such as total war mobilisation, we are likely to see this drag out or until both sides had enough and want solution.
Didn’t we guarantee Ukraine’s borders in a document? What else can we say? Either our word is good or it isn’t.
Russia, the US and the UK guaranteed not to interfere with Ukraine's Borders.

I'm no expert, but from what I can tell, neither the US, nor the UK has invaded Ukraine. Russia has. Russia broke their commitment. The result is security council action should be sought. By the power of the UN, the most toothless and bureaucratic organisation in history. It says nothing about the US or the UK ensuring the security, just they can't interfere, which is why Russia blames the west for Ukraine, its what they use to poorly justify what they are doing. These treaties are only worth anything if you care about your international standing. Russia, doesn't give a broken promise a second thought.

I also hate people throwing treatys around, like NATO article 5, like its bullet proof and a commandment from God enforced by Physics. Every war pretty much has started with the breaking of a treaty. Greece and Turkey have shown limitations of NATO, and Afghanistan also showed its limitations and its willingness and capability of its member states. With out the US in NATO, NATO would be pretty limited in capability. Its a deterrent for sure, but the idea that you don't even need a military because of article 5 is foolish to the extreme. There is no part of article 5 that states the US will fight and fund the war for Europeans and the EU trade protectorate.

Its also absurd to assume the US is some completely cohesive entity. Its not. The US won't always fly in like Superman. It doesn't work that way, it never did. Things that should be bipartisan don't work in the US currently.

Bills allowing US veterans to access health care are killed.

America is divided over Jan 6.

The US has been bankrolling and giving the most military aid of anyone. They have given huge support. But the US isn't endless. The US has an election coming up, and Trump says he is going to end the war. I doubt he means escalating it, or increasing support. It is quite probably the opposite. Cutting all support. Trump has said he will end the war in 24hrs.


Again, as horrific as Ukraine war is, Russia taking Ukraine is not an existential threat to US supremacy. Its Russia doing what Russia has done for 500 years. China taking Taiwan by force and wiping Guam off the map and sinking half of the 7th fleet, decimating Korea and Japan, is a different matter, and that is a fight that even the biggest American war hawks can now see the US taking on insurmountable losses (at least politically). Enough to for the US to pivot to Asia to better prepare itself. Which we may remember even democratic presidents were talking about decades ago. The outcome of the 2024 election may not matter in that sense. The US needs to shift away from Europe it has greater threats elsewhere.

Which seems to indicate this war needs to resolve quickly. Probably before the US elections. After that point US support seems weak (democratic win) to possibly none at all (Trump republican win). So can Europe replace US support if that is what they want? Will Europe pay for it? Does western Europe have 2-5 million 155mm shells in storage, planes, bombs, missiles, APCs, tanks etc, to give ~100 per year to Ukraine? Will they do it without American support, or even bigger, against American foreign policy wishes. Even more, does Russia believe that it will, or does Russia think Western Europe would fold like a towel? Who has the powerful European geopolitical voice? Macaron? Sunak? Schulz?

Western Europe seems to think US commitment is endless. It certainly acts like it is. European rearmament has been very, very mild, to non-existent. The only one who seems concerned is Poland. Who aren't big enough, by themselves, to stop the Russians, and who aren't the only way into Europe for Russia. They are merely trying to be strong enough to be not the preferred pathway through to western Europe. Poland, who also doesn't feel overt attachment to the rest of the Western Europe, who feels that Ukraine is being hung out to dry, by Europe.

All IMO. I know my perspective seems to upset people. I may be very wrong, but I hope this perspective is accepted in the way its offered. If I was in Europe I would be stocking up on food and supplies. 2024 isn't far away.. I don't see a Ukraine winning a strategic victory by 2024.
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
Kasporov is a difficult figure.

His world views are confusing and polarising, his politics ineffective. There isn't enough real politik in Kasparov to be effective. Kasparov is very anti-putin, arguable the most anti Putin voice from a Russian, if he even considers himself that any more. Even the anti-putin crowd tend to leave Kasparov out as his is just too bonkers and disconnected from reality.
He is a very interesting (not sure if that is the right word) character. He has often (since he tried RU politics) been more “hawkish” on Russia than the “hawkiest” of the hawks in Washington and other capitals of the world. For a clearly very intelligent person he acts and talks very… I have no idea what the right word is here. Dumb? Clearly not, but, like I said, I don’t know what a proper word is here. Naive? No, that isn’t right either because he is pretty persistent with his speeches and interviews. Rather persistent with his approach than speeches because he often contradicts himself. Also interesting, he probably has more interviews in English than in Russian, even when he was active in Russia (and I have been following for a while).

He says in this article:

I have spent two decades railing for stronger free world action against Putin’s dictatorship and war-making.

At the same time, in the same article, he accused three different US administrations, including the current one, of various things: Obama was a coward (among other things), Trump is a clown or worse (have to hand it to him here though), and Biden is (potentially) immoral and “lesser-evil” (than Putin).

He also states:

Even at this late hour, the same politicians and generals not only refuse to stop Putin’s war on the free world, but they also hold back Ukraine from fighting for its own land while they secretly try to negotiate backroom deals with the Kremlin. They restrict the weapons Ukraine may have and how they may use the ones they give.

I am not sure if he is being intentionally obtuse because a guy with his level of intellect should have caught on a long time ago that instead of “holding back Ukraine” these politicians and generals are making sure Ukraine still actually exists and is fighting back. We are all aware of shortages and delays and so on, but this clearly intentional poor choice of words is pretty staggering.

I posted just the other day (?) that “with Ukraine as long as it takes” is clearly an idiotic statement full of words but unrealistic and with no real content, but is he (Mr. Kasparov) just catching up? I agree with him, there is quite a bit of “opaqueness”, as he called it, but common, even possibly the greatest chess player of all time is ready to go all in, not everyone else is, thankfully. Note, he himself is far from ready to go all in because he simply left Russia and calls himself a dissident when his personal wellbeing (potentially) was at stake.

He also, interestingly, says the following:

Just last week, in my debate with Obama policy director Charles Kupchan (who will appear again later in this article), I confronted him over the fact that the “realists” have been wrong on Ukraine and Putin from the very beginning.

This is actually quite funny, because the “realists” had been out of the picture for a long time now and they have been quite spot on on what was going to happen quite a long time ago, to the tee, so to speak.

Anyway, the article is a bit trashy, in my opinion. But I, admittedly, would likely score (perhaps, significantly) lower on your average IQ test than Mr. Kasparov would.

I mean almost every paragraph can be picked at and taken apart. He also doesn’t have his facts straight, at least not according to what has been reported publicly. For example:

I should mention that not all of Biden’s lieutenants are involved in this ignoble deal-making. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Secretary of State Antony Blinken have consistently supported Ukraine both in public and in private, and the timeline below demonstrates just that.

It was specifically Blinken, who in private debate said, as was reported by, if I recall correctly, Politico and posted by me here a long while ago now (I can dig up the post, if necessary), that Crimea is the red line for Russia. Mr. Kasparov’s justification of his conclusion is in the very next paragraph:

Just last month, while others were blocking weapons for the counteroffensive, Blinken declared that Ukraine had reclaimed 50 percent of the land it initially lost and pressed for further victories.

We are all grown-ups here, no? I guess don’t take this as fact, but my assumption, haha. Regardless, everyone should be able to see this as complete rubbish, no?

Overall, I wouldn’t even call it propaganda, but rumblings of a… - again, I find it hard to find right words here, so insert your own - man and a good portion of these ramblings is either baseless or completely wrong. Lots of feelings, for sure (can’t say how genuine), but substance is clearly lagging. He appears to be rumbling more about Putin in particular without the understanding that the goals here aren’t exactly the same. Even Biden settled down quite a bit in regards to calling out Putin specifically and primarily (and he is a very old man).
 

StingrayOZ

Super Moderator
Staff member
My Kyiv is perhaps making it clear that US support isn't endless. It would be in pretty much everyone's interest except russia's to come to terms before the 2024 US election.

Ukraine of course can't criticize the US at all, that would be stupid. But they can publish Kasparov. Kasparov can give the US a spray. But as we can see, its a shot gun, and its pretty ineffective. Kasparov should have aimed more at European leaders IMO. America's position is already fixed.

But Zelinski and Ukraine is clearly getting more and more frustrated that greater support hasn't turned up, and support has sort of leveled out.

Its unlikely that F-16s are ever going to turn up. Russia seems keen on reminding Europe why they made need those jets. We may have already hit peak support for Ukraine.

If Trump gets in and the US stops support completely, I would imagine Ukraine as a state would basically stop. Think Afghanistan with the US pullout.
If Biden gets back in and US support slowly fades, well, perhaps a softer landing, perhaps an opportunity for European countries to step up and make up the short fall.

If it become a big election issue, both side may agree with lower support quickly once elected. Then it doesn't matter.
By 2024 it would have been two years, and by the US elections it would have been nearly 3. If Europe hasn't stepped up, then they never will. US economic and military props will likely cease and be redeployed, not just out of Ukraine, but out of Europe.

The US has provided more than $45 billion in aid to Ukraine since 2015. $45 billion buys a lot of schools, healthcare and jobs. It also buys a lot of US equipment the US needs.

I am not sure the EU can or will put in ~$22 USD billion a year additional, to fund Ukraine's war at the current rate. Even if they did, the European military complex cannot provide that amount of munitions and hardware.
 
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