The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Larry_L · Aug 11, 2023

Reports from Kherson that Ukraine has ambushed a Russian convoy SE of Nova Kakhovka. This may have been a troop convoy. All I find so far is on twitter, and that is difficult to research without a twitter account.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1689998036347342848

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1690022128106565632

Zelensky is cleaning house again. This time in the recruitment offices. Off you go to prison, or the front, or maybe retire. Replacements are to come from front line veterans. Amputees may apply. Putin could benefit from mirroring this action in some areas.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1690018975172747264

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1689973671476023297

For what it is worth, here is the latest report from "Sarcastosaurus" AKA Tom Cooper.

Ukraine War, 11 August 2023: Medals & Money

Hello everybody!

xxtomcooperxx.substack.com

rsemmes · Aug 11, 2023

I am reading old posts in this forum, trying to get up to date, (it seems I was on the wrong one all this time), a lot of "Russia is done" rushed conclusions even in this one (Lyman, Kupyansk and more), sometimes even funny to read the "past" and what is going on now and the comments about it (and who did it).
Yes, wisdom after-the-fact.

Now, AFAIK all Soviet tanks can create a smoke screen by injecting diesel (not the T-80 {?)). I was watching a(n) (old) video of a retreating tank (T-72), where is the smoke?, where are the nets?
A drone is going to find you, but first it has to look at you... and it is a very long line of trees (and more that one line at that).
Some of the rearguard deployment seems to be more than "casual", both sides.
What's going on? (Obviously, we only see those where sthing got hit). Can we find all those "missed" videos anywhere?, only after the war?
I feel almost a bit "insulted" by all that amateurism.

(All right, more than a bit arrogant here, but I do know that we can do better, it's about my life).
Only one opinion.

Redlands18 · Aug 12, 2023

F-16 training: Ukrainian pilots will not be operational before 2024 (msn.com)
Ukraine will not have qualified F-16 pilots before Summer 2024, before they even start conversion trg in the US, they have to do a 4 month English course to learn the terminology needed to fly the Jets.

Feanor · Aug 14, 2023

Minor update, I'll try to do a more detailed one later tonight. Overall not much has changed. Both sides appear to be out of steam for any major movements.

Zaporozhye.

It appears Urozhaynoe is now in the same boat as Staromayorskoe, with Russian forces either contesting or holding the southern outskirts, Ukrainian forces holding the northern outskirts, and the middle of the village being a no-man's land. This was a predictable outcome, since the position of the village isn't great, and Russian forces have already held it longer then I would have thought.

Artemovsk/Bakhmut

Russia has halted Ukraine's advance on Klescheevka, Andreevka, and Kudryumovka and then counter-attacked at Klescheevka, apparently retaking the southern outskirts of the village, placing it firmly back in Russian hands at least for now. There is also evidence of a failed Russian counter-attack at Andreevka.

Oskol Front.

Russian forces continue to inch forward across various sections of the front, gaining a little ground near Kupyansk, finally clearing Novoselkovo, and continuing to creep forward on the Kremennaya-Liman axis.

Mainframe · Aug 14, 2023

Hi guys I just joined DT and am therefore new to this thread, so can I ask what your current (August 2023) thinking is on the conflict, namely who do you think will win, Russia or Ukraine or neither?
A follow-up question is- Exactly what do both sides think they have to do to achieve a victory?
Here's a July 2023 map showing how things stand now, Putin seems to have satisfied himself by occupying the pro-Russian Donbas region and the territory linked to Crimea, and has dug in to let the Ukrainians knock themselves out against his fortified line-

2007yellow430 · Aug 14, 2023

An interesting article. Sounds truthful:

Opinion: Garry Kasparov - A History of Betrayal: Biden’s Team Keeps Negotiating About Ukraine Without Ukraine

This opinion piece was obtained exclusively by Kyiv Post from Garry Kasparov, who argues that the Biden administration should not be allowed to deal with the Kremlin behind Ukraine’s back.

www.kyivpost.com

Art

Feanor · Aug 14, 2023

2007yellow430 said:
An interesting article. Sounds truthful:

Opinion: Garry Kasparov - A History of Betrayal: Biden’s Team Keeps Negotiating About Ukraine Without Ukraine

This opinion piece was obtained exclusively by Kyiv Post from Garry Kasparov, who argues that the Biden administration should not be allowed to deal with the Kremlin behind Ukraine’s back.

www.kyivpost.com

Art

It reads like typical propaganda tripe. "Putin's genocide", "new terrorist attacks by Russians ", "jury of dead Ukrainian children", an unsubstantiated claim that Russian intends to conquer all Ukrainian lands... where was the outrage when Ukraine shelled a market in Donetsk? Oh sorry... "But while there is metaphorical blood on many hands, Russia and Russians wield the murder weapon alone." It doesn't count when it's Donbas children...

Nevermind that there is 0 evidence that Biden is preparing to surrender Ukraine to Putin, or that the US along with many other countries have flooded Ukraine with mountains of weapons, the only reason Ukraine is still in this war.

"Finally, we can conclude that once Biden understood that Putin would invade Ukraine, he prepared to surrender instead of fight. When, in November or December, the Biden administration was 100 percent confident that Putin would invade in weeks, they failed to properly equip Ukraine for deterrence or for war. "

As if preparing Ukraine for war is America's job. Maybe a better question is why 30 years of post-Soviet rule have left Ukraine a third world country? Instead of blaming the west of not saving Ukraine's bacon, maybe look to the looter-capitalist robber-barons that have run the country (and bled the country white) in the post-Soviet era. Don't get me wrong, I see why one wouldn't want Biden negotiating behind Ukraine's back with Putin. But this article is propaganda piece through and through.

SinisterMinister · Aug 14, 2023

Mainframe said:
Hi guys I just joined DT and am therefore new to this thread, so can I ask what your current (August 2023) thinking is on the conflict, namely who do you think will win, Russia or Ukraine or neither?
A follow-up question is- Exactly what do both sides think they have to do to achieve a victory?
Here's a July 2023 map showing how things stand now, Putin seems to have satisfied himself by occupying the pro-Russian Donbas region and the territory linked to Crimea, and has dug in to let the Ukrainians knock themselves out against his fortified line-

View attachment 50725

Also a new member here, my thinking is that the war goes one of two ways - either the US /NATO push Ukraine into a negotiated settlement that gives Russia much of what they wanted at the outset of the war (Crimea, Donbass, neutral military status for Ukraine), or the war continues until Ukraine's armed forces are ground down enough that they collapse and Ukraine signs an armistice. The latter of course carries with it the possibility of European intervention (particularly Polish), which opens a whole different can of worms.

Overall the long term picture for Ukraine is bleak. They do not have the military-industrial or administrative structures in place to make a total war possible, and total war is what would be required to win. Russia has shown that they can maintain the current pace, and their military industrial production has begun to pick up. Russia is fighting this war without really using their air force and with a single (so far) round of mobilization needed. They have primarily used up old stockpiles of equipment and are only recently having to deploy newly manufactured equipment to the front to meet their needs.

Meanwhile Ukraine is fighting with a hodgepodge of Western and Soviet era equipment, with insufficient logistical support or proper maintenance, without an air force, and with a manpower base that is being scraped dry due to a combination of high casualties, emigration, and corrupt/ineffective administrative officials. Western material support was geared toward the short term and for many reasons is an unreliable and insufficient solution to the problems Ukraine faces if this war is to continue for years to come.

To make matters worse, it seems that Ukrainian propaganda has effectively convinced their population that they are winning and Zelensky is now faced with the fact that if he signs a peace deal that cedes territory to Russia, he would be wise to flee the country as the Ukrainian population at large would feel blindsided and betrayed.

2007yellow430 · Aug 14, 2023

Feanor said:
It reads like typical propaganda tripe. "Putin's genocide", "new terrorist attacks by Russians ", "jury of dead Ukrainian children", an unsubstantiated claim that Russian intends to conquer all Ukrainian lands... where was the outrage when Ukraine shelled a market in Donetsk? Oh sorry... "But while there is metaphorical blood on many hands, Russia and Russians wield the murder weapon alone." It doesn't count when it's Donbas children...

Nevermind that there is 0 evidence that Biden is preparing to surrender Ukraine to Putin, or that the US along with many other countries have flooded Ukraine with mountains of weapons, the only reason Ukraine is still in this war.

"Finally, we can conclude that once Biden understood that Putin would invade Ukraine, he prepared to surrender instead of fight. When, in November or December, the Biden administration was 100 percent confident that Putin would invade in weeks, they failed to properly equip Ukraine for deterrence or for war. "

As if preparing Ukraine for war is America's job. Maybe a better question is why 30 years of post-Soviet rule have left Ukraine a third world country? Instead of blaming the west of not saving Ukraine's bacon, maybe look to the looter-capitalist robber-barons that have run the country (and bled the country white) in the post-Soviet era. Don't get me wrong, I see why one wouldn't want Biden negotiating behind Ukraine's back with Putin. But this article is propaganda piece through and through.

lets agree to disagree.

Art

StingrayOZ · Aug 14, 2023

Feanor said:
It reads like typical propaganda tripe. "Putin's genocide", "new terrorist attacks by Russians ", "jury of dead Ukrainian children", an unsubstantiated claim that Russian intends to conquer all Ukrainian lands... where was the outrage when Ukraine shelled a market in Donetsk? Oh sorry... "But while there is metaphorical blood on many hands, Russia and Russians wield the murder weapon alone." It doesn't count when it's Donbas children..

Kasporov is a difficult figure.

His world views are confusing and polarising, his politics ineffective. There isn't enough real politik in Kasparov to be effective. Kasparov is very anti-putin, arguable the most anti Putin voice from a Russian, if he even considers himself that any more. Even the anti-putin crowd tend to leave Kasparov out as his is just too bonkers and disconnected from reality.

As for acquisitions that America is playing great power politics. Well, no shit. There is more at play than just Ukraine. Levelling criticism for meeting Chinese, Russian officals and resolving issues with Iran, well, did he wake up yesterday?

He seems surprised that the US isn't sending all their weapons, and isn't fighting the war for Ukraine. And that the US seems to keep bargaining chips up its sleeve rather than an all out bet the house effort with Ukraine.

Kasparov also overtly simplifies America. Everyone in the US supports Ukraine? To what level? Has he seen America? There is a whole lot more going on in the US than supporting Ukraine, that doesn't even make the top 5 concerns for America.

It is time to make a choice: either Ukrainians enjoy the same right to freedom, life, and liberty that all humans do, or they do not. We either fight hard for a world of rules and values, or we do not. Bill Burns, John Kerry, and Jake Sullivan live in a world where the great powers set the rules and small countries must obey. So does Putin.

Well wake up Kasparov. Running the world is hard. Should the US back Greece and Turkey in their war against each other? Should the US and Russia not work together on issues like Syria. China is 10 times the problem Russia is, and offers an existential threat to global order and US supremacy and perhaps US cohesion. So the US and China shouldn't work together on climate change?

Why isn't Kasparov fighting China? Or Iran? Or invading Saudi Arabia? Personally. As a one man army with is followers.

Europe is ultimately Europe's problem. Western Europe is way closer to this fight, and its a fight they should be leading both Ukrainian support and diplomatic leadership and military capabilities. US has lead peace in Europe for 70 years? the EU has an economy the size of the US economy, it has smart people, it can solve its own problems.

Asking the US to sacrifice everything because Ukrainians deserve to be free, well first, why didn't the Ukrainians prepare more effectively for war? Why didn't Western Europe prepare more effectively for war? Why wasn't European diplomacy effective that the whole Ukrainian diplomacy effort relies on great power US-Russia diplomacy? Why wasn't Ukraine in NATO? Why wasn't Ukraine in the EU? Why does Ukraine find itself where it is today, where as say Poland finds itself in a very different position. Why wasn't Finland/Sweden in NATO? Why didn't the US bomb Finland and Sweden, when they weren't in nato? This absurd polarization white and black holyer than thou shit is pointless. Why didn't Kasparov become Russia's President? Why isn't he head of the UN? why does poverty exist? why hasn't Kasparov solved racism.

This idea that middle powers and micro powers can demand the US to do everything is absurd and stupid. The US isn't that powerful (not before and definitely not now), and your cause isn't that noble. The soviet union collapsed, it wasn't destroyed by Ukrainians rising up and kicking them out. Then it was overrun by corruption and political confusion.

Does Kasparov really believe everything the US does is because of some moral code? Or perhaps Kasparov, because the US believes that its in the US interests to do it?

Zelenski isn't some magical political force, with a deep and complex political narrative and theology behind him. Hes and actor/comedian. He stood up when the rest of the political elite stuffed their pockets with cash and left. He is the fucking voice of Paddington bear. Zelenski is clearly still dealing with issues of corruption, ineffectiveness and political mess inside of Ukraine. Hes doing a great job, but it is still a mess.

How is the US to know what Ukraine is determined to keep if that aren't even willing to fight for it? 2015 wasn't exactly a high point of national unity in Crimea.

Ukraine isn't an existential threat to the US. War with China possibly is.

I can see why Kyiv post published. Yes, the US can sometimes horse trade small countries for greater power games. Welcome to planet earth.

The lesson is there for everyone, not just Ukraine. America/Others help those who help themselves. Which is why we have seen a spate of wishy washy appeasement nation states start to suddenly and with great vigor pick sides. Suddenly seeking munitions and weapons that fit to NATO standards are important. Sovereign production capability, is important.

Because if you want serious help, it doesn't just fall out of the sky. You also need to ask why would help come? There needs to be some unifying interest, not just be reliant on the magical good will of others. You need to be clear where you stand before the lights go out and people start getting stabbed in the neck.

Australia has the tightest alliance with the US. Has tremendous cultural and historical ties with the US. Rupert Murdoch owns all the media. We are as tightly aligned and embedded as we can be. We have a treaty forged from WWII. We are 5,000km+ away from any real opponent, and that opponent have to work its way through the US and 5 of the largest economies to get to little old Australia.
We sit on an uninvadable, impossible to naval blockade, continent full of resources and huge strategic depth. But no one is sitting on their hands thinking the Americans are going to do all the fighting. Our complaint to the Americans is they won't let us have F-22's and why can't we buy SSN faster. If you want influence with the Americans, you have to sit at the table with them.

How people believe that the Americans will ride in and save them every time some one throws a rock is absurd.

Larry_L · Aug 14, 2023

SinisterMinister said:
Also a new member here, my thinking is that the war goes one of two ways - either the US /NATO push Ukraine into a negotiated settlement that gives Russia much of what they wanted at the outset of the war (Crimea, Donbass, neutral military status for Ukraine), or the war continues until Ukraine's armed forces are ground down enough that they collapse and Ukraine signs an armistice. The latter of course carries with it the possibility of European intervention (particularly Polish), which opens a whole different can of worms.

Overall the long term picture for Ukraine is bleak. They do not have the military-industrial or administrative structures in place to make a total war possible, and total war is what would be required to win. Russia has shown that they can maintain the current pace, and their military industrial production has begun to pick up. Russia is fighting this war without really using their air force and with a single (so far) round of mobilization needed. They have primarily used up old stockpiles of equipment and are only recently having to deploy newly manufactured equipment to the front to meet their needs.

Meanwhile Ukraine is fighting with a hodgepodge of Western and Soviet era equipment, with insufficient logistical support or proper maintenance, without an air force, and with a manpower base that is being scraped dry due to a combination of high casualties, emigration, and corrupt/ineffective administrative officials. Western material support was geared toward the short term and for many reasons is an unreliable and insufficient solution to the problems Ukraine faces if this war is to continue for years to come.

To make matters worse, it seems that Ukrainian propaganda has effectively convinced their population that they are winning and Zelensky is now faced with the fact that if he signs a peace deal that cedes territory to Russia, he would be wise to flee the country as the Ukrainian population at large would feel blindsided and betrayed.

I do not see any of what you say to be valid. Most, if not all of the countries actively supporting Ukraine have stated that they will support as long as is needed. In the US Ukraine has bipartisan support, with some members from both parties pushing for more support. Russia's rattling of their nuclear saber has lost much of it's impact. It is almost as likely that this will end with Ukraine getting most of what it is asking for.

Meanwhile support is ramping up with Ukraine getting more and more of what it asks for. F-16 fighters are finally in the works. Better late than never. Taurus cruise missals are becoming closer to being shipped if possibly being degraded somewhat. The GDP of the countries supporting Ukraine far exceeds that of Russia. Russia Is using it's air force to the best of it's ability, and continually losing more ground than it gains for quit a while now. The hodgepodge of equipment is in many cases superior to what Russia is fielding for the most part, their log lines are much shorter, and much of their damaged equipment is repaired. In some cases it is replaced. From what I have seen, once something is supplied, that capability is supported or even enhanced.

Yes, there is Ukrainian propaganda. We have all seen that. Your post smells much like Russian, or MAGA propaganda.

Feanor · Aug 15, 2023

SinisterMinister said:
Also a new member here, my thinking is that the war goes one of two ways - either the US /NATO push Ukraine into a negotiated settlement that gives Russia much of what they wanted at the outset of the war (Crimea, Donbass, neutral military status for Ukraine), or the war continues until Ukraine's armed forces are ground down enough that they collapse and Ukraine signs an armistice. The latter of course carries with it the possibility of European intervention (particularly Polish), which opens a whole different can of worms.

Overall the long term picture for Ukraine is bleak. They do not have the military-industrial or administrative structures in place to make a total war possible, and total war is what would be required to win. Russia has shown that they can maintain the current pace, and their military industrial production has begun to pick up. Russia is fighting this war without really using their air force and with a single (so far) round of mobilization needed. They have primarily used up old stockpiles of equipment and are only recently having to deploy newly manufactured equipment to the front to meet their needs.

Meanwhile Ukraine is fighting with a hodgepodge of Western and Soviet era equipment, with insufficient logistical support or proper maintenance, without an air force, and with a manpower base that is being scraped dry due to a combination of high casualties, emigration, and corrupt/ineffective administrative officials. Western material support was geared toward the short term and for many reasons is an unreliable and insufficient solution to the problems Ukraine faces if this war is to continue for years to come.

To make matters worse, it seems that Ukrainian propaganda has effectively convinced their population that they are winning and Zelensky is now faced with the fact that if he signs a peace deal that cedes territory to Russia, he would be wise to flee the country as the Ukrainian population at large would feel blindsided and betrayed.

Yeah, this is pretty far off. Russia has increased defense production considerably but Russia hasn't exactly gone for the total war approach, likely due to concerns with domestic stability. When Russia tried to mobilize 300 000 men, more then double that number left the country. Many came back once they realized the mobilization was a once-off event, but it shows you the nature of the situation. Russian use of Soviet stockpiles isn't some sort of clever saving of modern equipment. Russian production isn't enough to saturate the front with modern equipment. T-90Ms and BMP-3s leave the factory and end up in the front a few short months later, after being passed to the military and crews getting some time to train. Artillery production remains glacial, with practically all replacement artillery pieces coming from storage. The mass use of S-60s on trucks isn't a virtue. It's desperation. Don't get me wrong, both side are doing it, but that's kind of my point. Russia's ability to use air power is limited by Russia's failure in the SEAD/DEAD department. Again, it's not that they can't do it at all, but it's that they can't do it to the point where they can establish air dominance and them bomb Ukraine's ground forces into sawdust. Gliding bombs, a staple of western militaries for decades have only recently made an appearance in the Russian arsenal (no doubt with Iranian help) and Russia is relying on their long range strikes (combination of shaheds and cruise missiles) to keep Ukrainian air defenses busy and short on missiles, to have more or less a free reign closer to the front lines. Emphasis on more or less.

For Ukraine, they're fighting with anything that gets handed to them. And mostly it's been fairly consistent kit. Ukraine got ~1k M113s. That's not a hodgepodge, that's a massive and relatively standardized vehicle fleet. Ukraine also got buckets of T-72s and BMP-1s from all over. This matches existing gear, and again is supplied in quantities by the hundreds. Those a considerable-sized unified vehicle fleets. Same goes for MaxxPro MRAPs, humvees, and other common western kit. The quantities supplied are quite large. The hodgepodge part only started recently with a mix of Bradleys, CV90s, and Marders. But even then Bradleys supplied are over 100, and Marder deliveries are likely to continue too (as Germany re-arms with Pumas). Even if some things like VABs, and XA-180s are relatively uncommon, they represent a small portion of total kit. They may suffer from maitenance delays due to delivery issues or scarcity of uncommon spares, but again they're the exception. Ukraine's industrial capacity is irrelevant. Foreign aid is the driver here. Ukrainian tanks are being repaired in Poland and Ukraine is getting kit shipped en masse from all over the world, including many non-NATO members. Finally while Ukraine's airforce can't contest the skies, it continues to deliver unpleasant strikes, in the form of Storm Shadow cruise missiles, HARM strikes against Russian air defense, etc. This won't stop, it will only continue and expand in geography. Ukraine doesn't have the benefit of lobbing hundreds of gliding bombs each month, but has better intel from all the NATO ISR/SIGINT/ELINT/AEW flying around the perimeter as well as much better satellite intel. Lastly Ukraine is nowhere near scraping their manpower dry. Ukraine has a shortage of trained personnel. Not a shortage of population. At least not yet. Ukrainians aren't eager to fight, and many, when not well trained, perform poorly or even surrender early on. But there are plenty of replacements available. The scale of casualties simply isn't high enough for Ukraine to actually deplete it's mobilization potential. Ukraine can keep this current level of losses up for years, assuming nothing drastic happens internally to alter the stability of Ukraine's government.

As for Ukraine's population, they're not convinced they're winning. They've lived with their government's lies for a long time. However don't mistake their often casual cynism about the authorities in Kiev with a willingness to let Russia come and take over. From what I've seen, Ukraine's population understands that they're in a big and bloody war, with no obvious end in sight. They're not eager to be drafted for the next great counter-offensive, but they're a long way from marching on Kiev to hang Zelensky from the nearest lamp post. I even suspect many would quietly be ok with a peace that hands Russia the Donbas, and in exchange opens a road to EU/NATO membership for the rest of the country. As long as it means lasting peace and some sort of effort to rebuild. In other words, a peace along some sort of compromise lines would likely be acceptable.

koxinga · Aug 15, 2023

So in short, unless there is a dramatic escalation such as total war mobilisation, we are likely to see this drag out or until both sides had enough and want solution.

One quick question though, the presidency in Ukraine has a 5 year term limit from what I read. Is the plans still to hold elections in 2024 or will they postpone it? Politically, it would not be healthy or ideal. But a change in government in the middle of a hot war seems... challenging.

2007yellow430 · Aug 15, 2023

Didn’t we guarantee Ukraine’s borders in a document? What else can we say? Either our word is good or it isn’t.

Budapest Memorandum - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Feanor · Aug 15, 2023

Update.

Zaporozhye.

A Leo-2A6 stuck in a ditch takes a hit from a loitering munition to the side but appears to survive, though likely with some damage. The insufficient payload of the Lancet has been discussed ad nauseam.

The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

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