The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
I will aim for an update on Zaporozhye tomorrow. There is still not much movement there, just another pile of videos of stuff getting hit. The real excitement will be around Klescheevka, as well as Russia's pushes around the Oskol front. I'm still of the opinion they're an attempt at a distraction, but if they're successful they can evolve into more. Ultimately if the intent is to get all of the Donetsk region Russia will need to take Slavyansk-Kramatorsk, and this is made easier if the northern supply route is closed.
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
Not that The Sun is a good source, but reporting a Ukrainian Leo-2A6 getting hit as a Russian tank is RussiaToday levels of silly.

The Sun is not a good source.

Thanks for the update, Feanor. I am out in the boonies for a few days and have been watching my data (yes, still a thing in Canada to be saving your data). So it comes extra handy. Few more days to go.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Artemovsk/Bakhmut.

It appears Ukraine has contested Klescheevka. Information remains contradictory but it seems Ukraine is gaining ground. Again unless some sort of Russian counter-attack takes place, it's likely Ukraine will take the village. Russian sources are reporting major Ukrainian casualties in the fighting. Given the back and forth over the hills around it this is likely true. The question of Russian casualties remains open.
Boris Rozhin now confirms heavy casualties for Russian forces fighting for Klescheevka, though without details or images/videos. Considering the source, I would treat this as credible. The village remains partially in Russian hands, partially contested.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update on Zaporozhye.

It appears Ukraine has made another major attempt at Rabotino, and this attack has also failed, once again scattering knocked out and destroyed vehicles all over no-man's land. Involved in this attack were units riding BMP-1s and Bradleys, T-72s, and Leo-2s. Note this is the same area where 3 HMBVs were destroyed in the initial push. I don't have a good total count of destroyed or knocked out vehicles but 20+ appears to be a realistic estimate. Russian sources are claiming over 25 (some calling it as high as 40). To avoid any confusion there are 4 main areas of activity on this front. There is the Pyatihatka-Vasilyevka area which includes the village of Zherebyanki. There is the Orekhov-Rabotino axis which includes the Malaya Tokamachka area. There is the Vremyevskiy bulge which includes villages of Levadnoe, Priyatnoe, Urozhaynoe, Staromayorskoe, Staromlynovka, Novodonetskoe, and others. And there is the Gulyapole area. Overall we don't have any major change of territory yet, but this is clearly a change in the pattern with Ukraine making a major effort to break the Russian lines. So far this appears to be unsuccessful. It remains to be seen whether this is all of it or there is more and of course the question remains open. What happens if this fails?


Allegedly Ukraine's 65th Mech on the attack getting hit. Allegedly another failed attack near Rabotino.


A series of Russian loitering munition strikes on Ukrainian vehicles near Rabotino. We have a Bradley with BRAT ERA, A Leo-2A6 getting hit in the front of the hull (likely surviving), a T-72 getting hit in the front of the hull/side of the turret (facing sideways), and lastly we have a T-72 towing a knocked out T-72 getting hit in the process of towing.


A series of strikes against Ukrainian armored vehicles. We have two Leo-2A6s getting hit, as well as a third vehicle I can't identify. The photo on top is allegedly a Leo-2 turret after being thrown from the tank by an explosion.


Note the video where the loitering munition appears to pierce out the other side of the turret is apparently the explosion passing underneath the rear of the turret.


Ka-52 fires near Orekhov. Previously we saw them operating near the Vremyevskiy bulge.


A destroyed AS-90, and allegedly the strike that did it. These are new to the front and this is our second one getting hit. PzH-2000s these are not.


Ukrainian MBT near Rabotino hits a land-mine.


4 Bradleys getting hit by an FPV drone near Rabotino and a 5th one captured. Note this is the same captured one we saw earlier, and the second confirmed captured. Though against Russia's ability to evacuate these vehicles upon capture is an open question. MT-LBs and BMPs are likely not enough to haul it away due to its weight.


Ukrainian BMP-1 getting hit by a Lancet.


Two VABs getting hit near Malaya Tokamachka.


A Humvee gets hit by a loitering munition, and a T-72 moves to assist.


A knocked out T-72B3, and two Bradleys with BRAT ERA reportedly hit landmines near Rabotino.


2 destroyed M-ATVs, not sure if we've seen these before or not. Zaporozhye.


4 destroyed MaxxPros, in a small area.


Leo-2A6 gets hit by a Lancet, unclear if destroyed or knocked out but the strike is on the rear roof of the turret..


Leo-2A6 stuck in at trench getting hit.


A Kozak-2M1 destroyed near Orekhov.


A M-ATV gets destroyed near Orekhov.


11 knocked out and destroyed vehicles around Pyatihatka. One is a T-72, some are clearly BMPs, the rest I can't identify. Note these aren't all fresh, this is just a look around the area surrounding the village.


A destroyed BTR-80 near Gulyay Pole allegedly. These are fairly rare vehicles in Ukrainian service, and a unit riding them seems to have shown up in Zaporozhye.


An XA-180 Sisu knocked out on a landmine near Gulyaypole.


A series of burning vehicles, allegedly Ukrainian. Reported as part of the recent failed attack.


A Bradley shot up allegedly by a Russian 30mm autocannon. Note the vehicle is not destroyed and despite some damage is very fixable. It's interesting that they got close enough to be engaged by autocannon.


A Ukrainian HIMARS strike taking out a Russian Buk near Energodar.

 

Larry_L

Active Member
A view from Tom Cooper on the fighting in the north of Ukraine. I just recently discovered his blog. Take it for what it's worth. He does not seem to be totally full of BS.


Also his view on Klishchivka from yesterday.


Since Girkin, AKA Strelakov is incarcerated, one of his associates is doing the rant he usually does. He talks about mobilization, and the difficulty of the defense.



The back channel talks with Russia are coming into the open. Both sides are using this leak to further their own ends. It does not seem like any of the negotiators are empowered to commit to anything.

 

Ananda

The Bunker Group

Rybar info on Russia attack toward serpant island. Seems it is clear this attack more aim to the traffic toward Odessa, which is now halted. This is more on Russian say, the grain deal is off now.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member

Rybar info on Russia attack toward serpant island. Seems it is clear this attack more aim to the traffic toward Odessa, which is now halted. This is more on Russian say, the grain deal is off now.
Russia has been pummeling Odessa and the entire region quite heavily almost non-stop since the end of the grain deal and the Crimean Bridge attacks. Notable many of these strikes are aimed against the port infrastructure. In some cases there are reports of grain terminals being hit, in others strikes against various storage facilities in the area.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Is there reliable information of artillery losses for both sides it might be these are more important than tanks in long range warfare
I don't have stats. But Russia is getting the worst of it, very badly, on the Zaporozhye front. They're making up for it elsewhere but not not enough to bridge the gap. So right now Russia is losing more artillery for sure. However Russia is mostly fielding buckets of older Soviet-era artillery, much of which is still available from storage, at whatever rate Russian repair plants can pull off. Ukraine is basically dependent on foreign aid for artillery. So far Russia has been able to afford the losses. It's unclear whether this will remain the case. And undoubtedly in Zaporozhye Russia is in some considerable amount of trouble on the artillery front. You'll note Russian artillery is absent from recent videos from there. Infantry is using AGS against enemy infantry, and the anti-armor focus is ATGMs and loitering munitions, with landmines being the omnipresent defensive advantage.
 

T.C.P

Well-Known Member
I don't have stats. But Russia is getting the worst of it, very badly, on the Zaporozhye front. They're making up for it elsewhere but not not enough to bridge the gap. So right now Russia is losing more artillery for sure. However Russia is mostly fielding buckets of older Soviet-era artillery, much of which is still available from storage, at whatever rate Russian repair plants can pull off. Ukraine is basically dependent on foreign aid for artillery. So far Russia has been able to afford the losses. It's unclear whether this will remain the case. And undoubtedly in Zaporozhye Russia is in some considerable amount of trouble on the artillery front. You'll note Russian artillery is absent from recent videos from there. Infantry is using AGS against enemy infantry, and the anti-armor focus is ATGMs and loitering munitions, with landmines being the omnipresent defensive advantage.
What Russia needs to do is make China export a bunch of counter battery radars to North Korea and then have North Korea to sell it to them. They now have the excalibur M2 in production. Use them to knock out some Ukr artillery. Russian loss of SPGs is bceoming untenable. Everyday I see 3-5 Russian SPGs getting knocked out.
 

ImperatorOrbis

New Member
What Russia needs to do is make China export a bunch of counter battery radars to North Korea and then have North Korea to sell it to them. They now have the excalibur M2 in production. Use them to knock out some Ukr artillery. Russian loss of SPGs is bceoming untenable. Everyday I see 3-5 Russian SPGs getting knocked out.
Highly doubt it is in China interests to help Russia in such way. The weaker Russia becomes the more influence China will have over Russia and the Stans. China will not hand over its higher grade hardware.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
What Russia needs to do is make China export a bunch of counter battery radars to North Korea and then have North Korea to sell it to them. They now have the excalibur M2 in production. Use them to knock out some Ukr artillery. Russian loss of SPGs is bceoming untenable. Everyday I see 3-5 Russian SPGs getting knocked out.
Are we sure China is willing to do that? It seems that China has been careful to avoid anything that looks like direct support of the Russian war effort. They've ok with Russia shopping for electronics there to produce their own radars but don't want to supply fully functioning radars. It's also important to understand that counter-battery radars are not the end all be all. Ukrainian counter-battery radars get destroyed regularly, as do Russian ones. They're massive emitters. The key part of counter-battery work where Russia is failing (in my understanding) is the comms, coordination, and speed. They're taking too long to coordinate counter-battery strikes, while also getting outranged by modern western artillery. You'll notice that Krabs, M777s, and Soviet-era artillery has gotten destroyed by Russia in bulk. Those aren't the problem. HIMARS counter-battery work is, as apparently are Caesars and PzH-2000s. Of the former we have two hit, only one destroyed. Of the latter we have one potentially destroyed. Those are exceptions that prove the rule.
 

Larry_L

Active Member
According to a report the Russians pushed across the Zherbets river SW of Svatove extending into the eastern edge of the hillmass between the Zherbets and Oskil rivers. Reportedly Ukraine started repositioning artillery from further south. The logistics in this area are much easier for Russia, and have not seen as much attention from Ukraine. If Russia is able to expand this bridgehead they will do it at some cost as they are fighting uphill, and across a river from their supply lines.

 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
@Feanor WRT the destroyed Ukrainian T-64BV near Klescheevka, I wonder if that's a mine clearing one. I have seen various reports that the Ukrainians are having tremendous problems with the Russian minefields, and have decided to use some old Soviet tanks for minefield clearance.




In other news, the VMF has been laying mines to blockade Ukrainian Black Sea ports.


BBC update on the war.


Times Radio update.

DW asking if the main offensive has begun.

And a claim that the T-14 Armata is now in Ukraine.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
@Feanor WRT the destroyed Ukrainian T-64BV near Klescheevka, I wonder if that's a mine clearing one. I have seen various reports that the Ukrainians are having tremendous problems with the Russian minefields, and have decided to use some old Soviet tanks for minefield clearance.
I don't see why that would be. Russia has gigantic quantities of landmines deployed overall. Wasting a working tank on them is insane. Even a drivable tank would be better off converted into a mine clearing vehicle (remove turret, add mine trawl) rather then just run out into a minefield. A likelier scenario is that it's an old T-64BV lost in the fighting with Wagner back in the winter, that is now being passed off as a fresh kill.

DW asking if the main offensive has begun.
It sure looks like it has. I haven't had time for an update but Ukraine ran some ridiculous quantity of vehicles at Rabotino, though they failed from the looks of it. There's a video with an entire mech company riding BMPs with a T-72 tank platoon supporting getting wrecked. We have another medium-sized bucket of destroyed Bradleys and Leopards. And in the Vremyevskiy bulge Staromayorskoe has fallen. Though the village is basically flattened. Unless something drastic happens soon, we're getting to the point where we can write off the Ukrainian Zaporozhye offensive as an abject failure. And with the Russian push on the Oskol forcing reserves to be committed there it's leaving fewer forces available to exploit even if Ukraine does achieve some sort of breakthrough.

And a claim that the T-14 Armata is now in Ukraine.
TASS claimed so. In principle most tanks are being used as long range fire support, often indirectly. The T-14 with it's accurate and modern main gun would do great compared to the T-55s and 62s already being used. And it's relatively safe even for the '55s and '62s. It's completely plausible that the tank company we saw training in Kazan went to Ukraine for a trial combat run. But this clearly isn't the beginning of any mass deployment. Russia isn't even producing them in any real quantity. So whether it's true or not, it's not particularly significant at this point. It might matter in the medium term, making the difference between the project getting scuttled, and going ahead in some form.
 

koxinga

Well-Known Member
Even a drivable tank would be better off converted into a mine clearing vehicle (remove turret, add mine trawl) rather then just run out into a minefield.
Given the reported depth of Russian mine fields, why haven't we seen mine-clearing charge lines (rocket launched) being deployed more extensively? Those would be far more effective that the typical plough, roller type demining systems.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Given the reported depth of Russian mine fields, why haven't we seen mine-clearing charge lines (rocket launched) being deployed more extensively? Those would be far more effective that the typical plough, roller type demining systems.
Ukraine used MICLICs in Zaporozhye. The problem is that the minefields are too deep. They make an inroad, insert an armored taskforce with mineclearing vehicles, a pair of MBTs, and a platoon or two of mech infantry in vehicles for support, and have to move in a narrow column that then gets shot apart by Ka-52s with ATGMs at long range, and Russian SpN teams hiding in the treelines. Immobilize (don't even have to kill) mine breaching vehicles and the column stalls. Hit the back vehicles and backing out requires maneuvering around them in a minefield. Meanwhile artillery is firing. This is how all the initial attacks went. This was compounded by the massive depth of the minefields, the presence of multiple false safe passages (we saw Ukrainian mobile teams riding wheeled vehicles trying to follow openings only to run into dead ends), and many hidden Russian positions that ran through the treelines but were somewhat manned, somewhat not, with registered artillery TRPs all over the place, and all of that covered by masses of artillery, EW, tons of UAVs, and loitering munitions available in quantity, and you have quite a tough nut to crack. Ukraine didn't fail because they were bad. They failed, at least so far, because this is massive defense set up.
 

seaspear

Well-Known Member
@Feanor This question might be early and difficult but in the past Russia has been describes as having the second largest most powerful army in the world but given the losses to hardware like tanks and artillery and other systems where is it likely rated now ?
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
@Feanor This question might be early and difficult but in the past Russia has been describes as having the second largest most powerful army in the world but given the losses to hardware like tanks and artillery and other systems where is it likely rated now ?
Ratings of that sort are mostly nonsense. For example the Russian Pacific Fleet would likely lose the fight to the South Koreans, nevermind the Chinese or Japanese. Australia would pose a significant problem. Does this mean Russia is weaker then them? For all practical purposes, yes. On the other hand if the Japanese ground forces were teleported to the modern Ukrainian battlefield, there's no guarantee they would fare a whole lot better then the Ukrainians. So Russia is.... stronger? If you're into counting artillery tubes, tanks, AFVs, etc. then maybe. In the real world strength is relative not only to the opponent but also to the type of conflict being fought, and the objectives one has. If Russia has purely defense objectives, it doesn't matter how weak the Pacific Fleet is. As long as Russia can nuke Tokyo, and dozens of other major cities, there's no real chance of a Japanese invasion of Vladivostok (leaving aside the question of why they would even want to). If Russia wants to add Hokkaido to the Kuril Islands, then the weakness of the Pacific Fleet is once again a major problem. And of course there's the question of US involvement. Suddenly our strength question goes beyond just military questions and into diplomacy. In 2015 Russia went into Syria and drastically altered the geo-political trajectory of the Middle East using primarily the VVS, with some support from naval and ground forces assets. This is at a time when Finland would have been a tough nut for the VVS to crack. Russia is stronger then the US when it comes to determining the outcome of the war in Syria but weaker then Finland? With both primarily being airpower questions? I'll end where I started. Ratings are mostly nonsense.
 
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