Capt. Ironpants
Active Member
Something does feel strange and "off" about this whole thing, but ...That's a possible option. I hadn't thought of that when I wrote my post above.
Definitely an option but it appears that Putin hasn't confiscated Prigozhin's assets yet (not publicly anyay) and being in Belarus, Prigozhin should still be able to access any funds he has in Russia. Just something niggling at the back of my mind causes me to suspect that this is all maskirovka.
Perhaps I don't understand correctly, but my understanding is that Wagner was to be absorbed into the Russian Armed Forces. The contract for Wagner expired on May 31 and would not be renewed. Instead, Wagner fighters were to sign contracts with the Russian Armed Forces and come fully under its command. This meant Prigozhin would lose control of his Wagner fighters in Ukraine, which I imagine did not set well with him. It also meant Shoigu had won the feud and Prigozhin was left out in the cold.
So, on June 23 (why did he have to pick my birthday, darn it?), Prigozhin claimed Russian forces had bombed one of his Wagner camps and set off on his crazy March for Justice. After he got to Rostov-Na-Danu, he posted photos of boxes which he claimed were filled with rubles meant to pay his fighters, but Shoigu had withheld or stolen. This caused some to think it was all about money, and money may have been part of his motivation, but power seems more likely to me, power and pride. Or maybe he has mental problems, in which case who knows what was in his head?
When it became clear he had no allies (Putin and Kadyrov called him a traitor and back stabber and the Russian people were tearing down Wagner posters all over -- no one loves a traitor, especially in wartime), he had no choice but to negotiate. As I understand the deal, Prigozhin and those of his fighters who joined his rebellion will go into exile in Belarus. Who will pay these fighters? Presumably Lukaschenko, but no statement on that, at least not that I have seen. Those who refused to join it will be offered contracts with the Russian Armed Forces.
Possible benefits to Putin: Prigozhin problem solved (although not entirely while he lives, especially if he won't shut up). Disloyal elements flushed out. Large contingent of effective "bodyguards" for his compliant pal Lukaschenko (and already in place to play bodyguard to whoever Putin wishes to succeed him when the time comes, but only if they can be trusted ... hmm). Wagner in Belarus to attack Ukraine if that's in the plan. But I can't see why Putin would have to go such a costly and risky route to place them there if the goal is to attack Ukraine or protect Lukaschenko.
Costs: Dead pilots and loss of precious aircraft. Putin damaged on both the domestic and international fronts. Other countries are wary of those they deem unstable. US policy for decades has been to weaken Russia to the point it disintegrates. Biden even publicly announced his insistence on regime change. Their goal is that this war will bring about regime change and break Russia into pieces. No doubt they were hoping their dream was coming true this past day. This will only further embolden them.
The costs appear to me to far outweigh the benefits, so I am doubtful this was all maskirova, but open to the idea. I don't know all there is to know, of course.