The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[Capt. Ironpants]

I dont understand how you can cross Putin and expect to live, despite whatever "agreement" is reached. Very weird.

I gather it's quite a dangerous thing to be leader of Russia. (Not looking down on Russians at all -- we've had our share of presidential assassinations: four in our relatively short history, plus two injured in assassination attempts.)

While Prigozhin voiced some very damaging allegations, he was careful to blame everything on Shoigu and Gerasimov. Sort of like the old "the Czar has been given bad advice" narrative. Still, it was so damaging (starting the SMO in Ukraine based on lies, etc.), I can't imagine Putin being anything other than livid. And he indeed appeared to be quite angry in his television address. Of course, if reports about negotiations are true, he was playing "bad cop" to Lukashenko's "good cop". Still, those who think Prigozhin and Putin were in cahoots in this crazy thing, well, I can't quite see that (although stranger things may have happened in the past, I can't think of one quite like this).

There has been much speculation about Putin being between a rock (Shoigu and military and military-involved elites supporting him) and a hard place (Prigozhin, who has popular support as well as a large contingent of dangerous mercenaries). Reportedly, Putin values loyalty above all else, and considered Shoigu and Prigozhin to be loyal, and was loyal to them in return. While surely he could see that Shoigu was quite incompetent and not up to the job, he feared firing him because of the reaction of his supporters as well as loss of a man he trusted to be loyal in that position. And while Prigozhin could certainly be a dangerous loose cannon, he feared the reaction of his men (and the populace) if he got rid of him one way or another. Perhaps Prighozin thought he could strong arm Putin into firing Shoigu despite the danger to Putin in that. Perhaps he thought with his little show he could intimidate Shoigu's backers and thus mitigate the dangers Putin might face when firing him. We'll see, I suppose.

I'm sure @Feanor can give a much better analysis. I'm no expert on Russia and just thinking out loud here. It will certainly be interesting to see how all this plays out.

 

[Capt. Ironpants]

Seems like words don't mean much. No wonder nobody blinks when Putin tosses nuke rhetoric around.

So who blinked I wonder? Regardless, Putin is permanently damaged, IMO.

It may well be that Putin is permanently damaged, but I cannot so cavalier as you about "nuke rhetoric". Speaking of assassinated American presidents, I think it would behoove us to recall President Kennedy's words:

“Above all, while defending our own vital interests, nuclear powers must avert those confrontations which bring an adversary to a choice of either a humiliating retreat or a nuclear war. To adopt that kind of course in the nuclear age would be evidence only of the bankruptcy of our policy—or of a collective death-wish for the world.”

We no longer have statesmen as we did back then, in those decades, even. No Kennedy, Kennan, Matlock, etc., in sight, which I find deeply disturbing.

JFK’s speech is truly worth another listen now, in my opinion:

[Edited to correct formatting error.]

 

[T.C.P]

Piro realized he went too far, the VKS lost more assets in his little stunt then in the entire ukr counter offensive.

Lushenko gave him an out. The videos from the Russian populace were really interesting, they were very pro Wagner, until it came out that they were going against Putin. I aw multiple videos of random civillians having heated arguments against Wagner when Putin renounced this move, Piro and his buddies underestimated just how immensely popular Putin still is to the Russian general Public. Without public support and without all his regular allies like Surovikin and Kadyrov backing him he had no way of success.

His entire popularity is based on his perfromance in Ukraine, if he had kept this up any longer, any tom dick and harry could point out that he is doing more damage to the war effort (already did plenty, Ka-52s and those rare Mi-8s are big losses). If Piro has any braincells left, he will ensure that him and his Wagnerites are deep inside ukraine and away from Moscows reach for a while.

Edit just saw this-

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1672692778604670986

If this is it, then Prio got literally nothing. If Shoigu andd gerasimov remain, and he gets exiled an dloses bunch of his expereinced officers to the MOd, then he just barely escaped with his life.

Good deal for Lushenko, a pliant and dependent Piro and his remaining flock to keep away any domestic revlutionaries.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

I'm sure @Feanor can give a much better analysis. I'm no expert on Russia and just thinking out loud here. It will certainly be interesting to see how all this plays out.

This isn't a good outcome for Putin, just less worse than being overthrown. Only this morning he was making threats and there was an announcement into a criminal investigation into Prigozhin. Now the head of Wagner appears to be getting a slap on the wrist, and may even have got some of the Russian top brass fired. What he did was treason, there's no two ways about it. Even if he has to leave Russia it's still a trivial punishment.

A "good" outcome for Putin would have been Wagner troops refusing to go along with the mutiny, or surrendering as soon as they met any Russian regulars. But that's not what happened.

 

[T.C.P]

. Now the head of Wagner appears to be getting a slap on the wrist, and may even have got some of the Russian top brass fired.

This is what I am waiting for. If either one or both of Shoigu and Gerasimov keep their jobs, then Piro lost pretty much everything. One of the prevailing theories is that he knew he was up for the chopping block an dhtis was a lasr desperate move to save his own skin and some of his most loyal followers. We will see in time.

Also I wonder how many Wagnerites will follow Piro to Belarus. Just Piro and 5K wagner troops should give Lushenko complete immunity from any coups and rebbellions in hsi won country. Piro has nowehere left and must ensure the survival of the Lushenko regime. This alos strengthens Belarus' hand against Russia as well. its too earrly to call, but Lushenko might just have become the single biggst winner of the whole Ukraine Debacle. Nukes and compliant death squad to boot.

 

[vikingatespam]

Also I wonder how many Wagnerites will follow Piro to Belarus. Just Piro and 5K wagner troops should give Lushenko complete immunity from any coups and rebbellions in hsi won country.

....unless [puts tin foil hat on] this is all a long game to get a Trojan horse next to Lukashenko.

[takes tin foil hat off]....thats a dumb theory.

 

[T.C.P]

....unless [puts tin foil hat on] this is all a long game to get a Trojan horse next to Lukashenko.

[takes tin foil hat off]....thats a dumb theory.

Well Lushenko is old and not in good health. Who ever is in charge of Wanger if they still remain in Belarus at the time Lushenko croaks, will probably be a massive powerbroker. Another way Russia can ensure a Moscow friendly regime takes over.

 

[KipPotapych]

In short, you reap what you sow. This is literally what happened with the chef. I believe I posted about it here a very long time ago now.

Hard to make out through the dust at the moment. We will see what happens and who is left standing.

Kadyrov pushing some, what appears to be, rubbish in regards to the causes of what took place (via Google translate):

According to Kadyrov, the chain of unsuccessful transactions in business caused Prigozhin's resentment, which reached its peak when the authorities of St. Petersburg did not provide his daughter with the desired land plot, and because of this he decided to involve a large number of people into the conflict.

Кадыров прокомментировал ситуацию с Пригожиным

Глава Чечни Рамзан Кадыров высказался о ситуации с ЧВК «Вагнер». Своим мнением он поделился в Telegram-канале. Он выразил разочарование, отметив, что ошибался в Евгении Пригожине. «Я думал, что некоторым людям можно верить. Что они искренне любят свою Родину как настоящие патриоты до мозга...

m.lenta.ru

I am not so sure Lukoshenko himself won here. The love for him in Belarus, while exists, it’s not the same as the love for Putin in Russia. He may have gotten himself quite a headache.

The videos from the Russian populace were really interesting, they were very pro Wagner, until it came out that they were going against Putin. I aw multiple videos of random civillians having heated arguments against Wagner when Putin renounced this move, Piro and his buddies underestimated just how immensely popular Putin still is to the Russian general Public.

I can, to some degree, agree and have some anecdotal evidence to support it. While the whole thing was unrolling at night (my time, of course, or as I was writing here), I had a chat via a messenger with… call it a childhood friend. The guy is a retired colonel in RU, early 40’s, from Sankt Petersburg. Still a midrange higher-up in the governmental structures, sort of thing. In short, his ideas are of course Prigozhin is right, but coup, mutiny, and treason puts him completely out of line. A few others I chatted with since have similar perspective, with some having some stronger words for the chef and saying he’s been out of line for a long time now.

 

[Feanor]

Apparently Wagner is packing up and leaving Rostov-na-Donu.

Colonelcassad

ЧВК "Вагнер" покидает территорию штаба Южного военного округа.

t.me

Colonelcassad

В Ростове готовятся к отъезду.

t.me

Colonelcassad

В Ростове идет погрузка военного оборудования для отбытия ЧВК "Вагнер" из города.

t.me

Russian road workers are fixing the roads.

Colonelcassad

Коммунальные службы в Липецкой области уже начали заделывать рвы на трассах, вырытые днем для предотвращения продвижения отрядов ЧВК «Вагнер» к столице. Трасса М4 и параллельные ей магистрали играют определяющую роль в снабжении российской группировки на Донбассе. Оперативное восстановление...

t.me

This seems to be the end of it. I really have to wonder that Prigozhin was willing to back down. The move he made meant either all or nothing, and I have a sneaking suspicious he won't live long.

 

[swerve]

Well Lushenko is old and not in good health.

Putin's older, & also seems to have health issues.

 

[seaspear]

A question also is how does Wagner operate in Africa and other countries ,is Russia taking over responsibility for Wagner?

 

[Feanor]

A question also is how does Wagner operate in Africa and other countries ,is Russia taking over responsibility for Wagner?

I guess time will tell but the simplest answer is to create a new company called Not Wagner (TM), and put someone else in charge of all the major decision-making roles, but leave the same people on the ground. What are they going to do? Stage a coup if the CAR?

 

[ngatimozart]

Prigozhin and those of Wagner who followed him have gained sanctuary in Belarus after Lukashenko played intermediary negotiated a compromise agreement between Putin and Prigozhin. Charges against Prigozhin will be dropped and those of Wagner who do not want to relocate to Belarus will have to sign contracts with the Russian MOD. The reason given was that they did not want to spill Russian blood because of Russian fighting Russian. Putin, Lukashenko, and most Russians are scared, probably terrified, by the spectre of a Russian Civil War. The civil war from 1917 – 1920 caused a huge number of deaths and the horror of such is part of the Russian psyche and collective memory. For Putin to use the term “civil war” four times in his speech, illustrates his horror of such an event.

This episode has left Putin weaker politically and in the eyes of the Russian people because he failed to destroy the traitor Prigozhin. That’s what’s the Russian people expect of their leaders because they abhor traitors. I think Prigozhin will have to stay well away from windows and tea from now on, because he knows only to well that Putin’s favoured method of eliminating traitors is poison.

However I have the feeling that this is all to pat; tidy, convenient etc. At the back of my mind there is a thought that thinks that this maybe maskirovka (Russian deception) in order to get Wagner into Belarus without the move being obviously a military move. A large Wagner force in Belarus will certainly raise the suspicions of the Ukrainians and this maskirovka maybe an attempt to lessen those suspicions. Unfortunately for the Russians the Ukrainians are very familiar with maskirovka and how the Russians practice it.

This move definitely will have the Ukrainians concerned because such a force in Belarus presents a clear and present danger to their north, and will cause them to seriously consider diverting significant forces from the counter offensive to guard their northern approaches. If that happens the maskirovka is successful. Time will tell.

 

[ngatimozart]

....unless [puts tin foil hat on] this is all a long game to get a Trojan horse next to Lukashenko. [takes tin foil hat off]....thats a dumb theory.

That's a possible option. I hadn't thought of that when I wrote my post above.

I guess time will tell but the simplest answer is to create a new company called Not Wagner (TM), and put someone else in charge of all the major decision-making roles, but leave the same people on the ground. What are they going to do? Stage a coup if the CAR?

Definitely an option but it appears that Putin hasn't confiscated Prigozhin's assets yet (not publicly anyay) and being in Belarus, Prigozhin should still be able to access any funds he has in Russia. Just something niggling at the back of my mind causes me to suspect that this is all maskirovka.

 

[Ananda]

Whether this is true compromises arrange by Lukashenko with his buddy Putin, or it is another deceptive move as an excuse to put bulk of Wagner force in Belarus, the reality it is already raise much hope in Ukraine and Western media yesterday.

Just something niggling at the back of my mind causes me to suspect that this is all maskirovka.

Yes, from various western media pundit opinions that I see yesterday, mostly glee with what they call beginning of the end on Putin. Only few that say cautiously and reminding possible Russian deception.

Personally I see this is part of compromise, but something that provides potential opportunities by Russian to exploit further. Time will tell, but so far it is an anti climax.

 

[ngatimozart]

Whether this is true compromises arrange by Lukashenko with his buddy Putin, or it is another deceptive move as an excuse to put bulk of Wagner force in Belarus, the reality it is already raise much hope in Ukraine and Western media yesterday.

Yes, from various western media pundit opinions that I see yesterday, mostly glee with what they call beginning of the end on Putin. Only few that say cautiously and reminding possible Russian deception.

Personally I see this is part of compromise, but something that provides potential opportunities by Russian to exploit further. Time will tell, but so far it is an anti climax.

Putin has an absolute dislike for traitors and in his eyes, all those that stood with Prigozhin, or who he suspected had sympathies with Prigozhin would be taken in for some energetic questioning and subsequent holiday in the prison system. He had the ability to destroy Prigozhin and his convoy from the air and didn't take that opportunity. Yes some ground aviation helicopters had a go, but where were the fast jet heavy hitting capabilities of the VVS? That's what is tickling my niggle.

 

[Feanor]

Putin has an absolute dislike for traitors and in his eyes, all those that stood with Prigozhin, or who he suspected had sympathies with Prigozhin would be taken in for some energetic questioning and subsequent holiday in the prison system. He had the ability to destroy Prigozhin and his convoy from the air and didn't take that opportunity. Yes some ground aviation helicopters had a go, but where were the fast jet heavy hitting capabilities of the VVS? That's what is tickling my niggle.

There were Su-34 strikes reported but evidence is scant.

 

[T.C.P]

Putin has an absolute dislike for traitors and in his eyes, all those that stood with Prigozhin, or who he suspected had sympathies with Prigozhin would be taken in for some energetic questioning and subsequent holiday in the prison system. He had the ability to destroy Prigozhin and his convoy from the air and didn't take that opportunity. Yes some ground aviation helicopters had a go, but where were the fast jet heavy hitting capabilities of the VVS? That's what is tickling my niggle.

Well that would have looked horrible for Russia. Using VKS to kill Russian soldiers albeit Wagnerites. Wagnerites are veteran Russian soldiers using Russian equipment, it would have been a loss and caused a lot of morale issues in the home front. Wagners heavy equipment is mostly intact and a large chunk of the wagnerites will now sign up with the Mod(if reports are to be believed).

If a good number of Wagnerites get signed up by the Mod after this little coup which has lost relatively few lives, russia is better off right?

Also reports are coming out that the Russian govt knew somehting was up in the last 48 hours due to transfer of heavy weaponry, they probably expected something but did not know what it would actually be. If russia had not lost the choppers and the An-26, this would have been much different.

I wonder how much the Russian govt will benefit financially from seizing Piro's assets in russia.

 

[Beam]

Well that would have looked horrible for Russia. Using VKS to kill Russian soldiers albeit Wagnerites. Wagnerites are veteran Russian soldiers using Russian equipment, it would have been a loss and caused a lot of morale issues in the home front. Wagners heavy equipment is mostly intact and a large chunk of the wagnerites will now sign up with the Mod(if reports are to be believed).

If a good number of Wagnerites get signed up by the Mod after this little coup which has lost relatively few lives, russia is better off right?

Also reports are coming out that the Russian govt knew somehting was up in the last 48 hours due to transfer of heavy weaponry, they probably expected something but did not know what it would actually be. If russia had not lost the choppers and the An-26, this would have been much different.

I wonder how much the Russian govt will benefit financially from seizing Piro's assets in russia.

If I was a Wagnerite, I don't think I would be too happy compared to the disparate pay rates of the two organisations. Something seems definitely off.

 

[T.C.P]

If I was a Wagnerite, I don't think I would be too happy compared to the disparate pay rates of the two organisations. Something seems definitely off.

If they are the super veterans they market themselves them to be they might get good contracts. Also its not like they have a choice, its either join up or become illegal mutineers. Its not like they can take the Mod tot he courts and sue them.