The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[Capt. Ironpants]

That's a possible option. I hadn't thought of that when I wrote my post above.

Definitely an option but it appears that Putin hasn't confiscated Prigozhin's assets yet (not publicly anyay) and being in Belarus, Prigozhin should still be able to access any funds he has in Russia. Just something niggling at the back of my mind causes me to suspect that this is all maskirovka.

Something does feel strange and "off" about this whole thing, but ...

Perhaps I don't understand correctly, but my understanding is that Wagner was to be absorbed into the Russian Armed Forces. The contract for Wagner expired on May 31 and would not be renewed. Instead, Wagner fighters were to sign contracts with the Russian Armed Forces and come fully under its command. This meant Prigozhin would lose control of his Wagner fighters in Ukraine, which I imagine did not set well with him. It also meant Shoigu had won the feud and Prigozhin was left out in the cold.

So, on June 23 (why did he have to pick my birthday, darn it?), Prigozhin claimed Russian forces had bombed one of his Wagner camps and set off on his crazy March for Justice. After he got to Rostov-Na-Danu, he posted photos of boxes which he claimed were filled with rubles meant to pay his fighters, but Shoigu had withheld or stolen. This caused some to think it was all about money, and money may have been part of his motivation, but power seems more likely to me, power and pride. Or maybe he has mental problems, in which case who knows what was in his head?

When it became clear he had no allies (Putin and Kadyrov called him a traitor and back stabber and the Russian people were tearing down Wagner posters all over -- no one loves a traitor, especially in wartime), he had no choice but to negotiate. As I understand the deal, Prigozhin and those of his fighters who joined his rebellion will go into exile in Belarus. Who will pay these fighters? Presumably Lukaschenko, but no statement on that, at least not that I have seen. Those who refused to join it will be offered contracts with the Russian Armed Forces.

Possible benefits to Putin: Prigozhin problem solved (although not entirely while he lives, especially if he won't shut up). Disloyal elements flushed out. Large contingent of effective "bodyguards" for his compliant pal Lukaschenko (and already in place to play bodyguard to whoever Putin wishes to succeed him when the time comes, but only if they can be trusted ... hmm). Wagner in Belarus to attack Ukraine if that's in the plan. But I can't see why Putin would have to go such a costly and risky route to place them there if the goal is to attack Ukraine or protect Lukaschenko.

Costs: Dead pilots and loss of precious aircraft. Putin damaged on both the domestic and international fronts. Other countries are wary of those they deem unstable. US policy for decades has been to weaken Russia to the point it disintegrates. Biden even publicly announced his insistence on regime change. Their goal is that this war will bring about regime change and break Russia into pieces. No doubt they were hoping their dream was coming true this past day. This will only further embolden them.

The costs appear to me to far outweigh the benefits, so I am doubtful this was all maskirova, but open to the idea. I don't know all there is to know, of course.

 

[Feanor]

Something does feel strange and "off" about this whole thing, but ...

Perhaps I don't understand correctly, but my understanding is that Wagner was to be absorbed into the Russian Armed Forces. The contract for Wagner expired on May 31 and would not be renewed. Instead, Wagner fighters were to sign contracts with the Russian Armed Forces and come fully under its command. This meant Prigozhin would lose control of his Wagner fighters in Ukraine, which I imagine did not set well with him. It also meant Shoigu had won the feud and Prigozhin was left out in the cold.

As far as I can tell this is not correct. Volunteer formations would get MoD contracts. Wagner did not. Prigozhin looked set up to continue to operate semi-independently.

So, on June 23 (why did he have to pick my birthday, darn it?), Prigozhin claimed Russian forces had bombed one of his Wagner camps and set off on his crazy March for Justice. After he got to Rostov-Na-Danu, he posted photos of boxes which he claimed were filled with rubles meant to pay his fighters, but Shoigu had withheld or stolen. This caused some to think it was all about money, and money may have been part of his motivation, but power seems more likely to me, power and pride. Or maybe he has mental problems, in which case who knows what was in his head?

When it became clear he had no allies (Putin and Kadyrov called him a traitor and back stabber and the Russian people were tearing down Wagner posters all over -- no one loves a traitor, especially in wartime), he had no choice but to negotiate. As I understand the deal, Prigozhin and those of his fighters who joined his rebellion will go into exile in Belarus. Who will pay these fighters? Presumably Lukaschenko, but no statement on that, at least not that I have seen. Those who refused to join it will be offered contracts with the Russian Armed Forces.

This seems to be the idea but again it looks very murky. On the other hand let's consider that Prigozhin himself stopped the march on Moscow. There's something here we're not seeing.

Possible benefits to Putin: Prigozhin problem solved (although not entirely while he lives, especially if he won't shut up). Disloyal elements flushed out. Large contingent of effective "bodyguards" for his compliant pal Lukaschenko (and already in place to play bodyguard to whoever Putin wishes to succeed him when the time comes, but only if they can be trusted ... hmm). Wagner in Belarus to attack Ukraine if that's in the plan. But I can't see why Putin would have to go such a costly and risky route to place them there if the goal is to attack Ukraine or protect Lukaschenko.

Costs: Dead pilots and loss of precious aircraft. Putin damaged on both the domestic and international fronts. Other countries are wary of those they deem unstable. US policy for decades has been to weaken Russia to the point it disintegrates. Biden even publicly announced his insistence on regime change. Their goal is that this war will bring about regime change and break Russia into pieces. No doubt they were hoping their dream was coming true this past day. This will only further embolden them.

Also cost, a army-sized formation is now in a questionable state. If this hadn't happened, Wagner could have spearheaded Russia's next push, be it Kupyansk or Seversk, or possibly even something more ambitious (Slavyansk-Kramatorsk?).

The costs appear to me to far outweigh the benefits, so I am doubtful this was all maskirova, but open to the idea. I don't know all there is to know, of course.

I think this was real.

 

[Pusser Tas]

Happy Birthday on the 23rd June.

 

[Capt. Ironpants]

As far as I can tell this is not correct. Volunteer formations would get MoD contracts. Wagner did not. Prigozhin looked set up to continue to operate semi-independently.

I kept seeing references to this contract business on Russian Telegram channels during the March of Justice craziness. I just now found Reuters piece about it. Media reports are not always correct, of course, According to this article:

MOSCOW, June 11 (Reuters) - Russia's most powerful mercenary said on Sunday that his Wagner fighters would not sign any contract with Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, publicly refusing an attempt by the defence ministry to bring his fighting force under its sway.

And:

The defence ministry said that in the interests of increasing the effectiveness of "volunteer detachments", all such units - or their men - would have to sign a contract with the defence ministry by July 1.

It did not mention Wagner by name but it routinely refers to Wagner as "volunteer assault detachments".

Link:

Prigozhin says Wagner will not sign contracts with Russia defence minister

The founder of the Wagner group, has repeatedly attacked President Vladimir Putin's top military brass for what he casts as treachery for failing to fight the war in Ukraine properly.

www.reuters.com

It is confusing, at least to me.

This seems to be the idea but it looks very murky. On the other hand let's consider that Prigozhin himself stopped the march on Moscow. There's something here we're not seeing.

Yes, murky(!).

True. I don't think he's entirely mercenary (grin) and disagree with those who think it was all about money. Nor do I think Prigozhin is all 100% about power. Pride seems to have been involved, not just the puffed up sort of pride, but also the honor sort (as he defines honor). I think he may well have been genuinely concerned about and outraged at what he considered bad leadership that had, in his opinion, needlessly cost lives and territory. He appears to care about his men in his way and his own sense of honor very much bound up with looking out for them (again, in his way). And he apparently considers himself a Russian patriot. I presume the deal for amnesty for himself and his men included his agreeing to stop the march. Plus, he was likely to have been informed of the troops being flown into Moscow. Had he not stopped the march, he and his men would have been reviled as traitors who shed Russian blood rather than lauded as war heroes as they had previously been. This he may have considered a fate worse than death. I don't know all that much about the man, so I could well be wrong. I'm not praising the him, for sure, and glad I don't have him for a relative or neighbor.

There is certainly something I'm not seeing! Probably lots of somethings.

Also cost, a army-sized formation is now in a questionable state. If this hadn't happened, Wagner could have spearheaded Russia's next push, be it Kupyansk or Seversk, or possibly even something more ambitious (Slavyansk-Kramatorsk?).

Absolutely a cost, and a very important one. Excellent point I left out.

I think this was real.

So do I. I do have questions, though.

When exactly was the Wagner camp supposedly bombed? I keep reading it was June 23, but as I posted earlier, if that is correct, how on earth did they load and organize those columns so quickly? Again, I'm just a civvie and ignorant about such things.

The video Prigozhin posted of the alleged bomb site was not terribly convincing. He claimed a large number of his fighters were killed by this bomb. Yet it seemed he offered no proof. At least I never saw any. Not that I think he should have posted pictures of their bodies, but did he provide a list of their names to MOD? Surely he would have, no? Even if only for the sake of their families. Has there ever been any confirmation of his claims about this bombing? Or evidence he was mistaken or lying? If lying, how did he get all those guys to go along with it?

So many questions. And so much I don't know that I don't even know to ask questions about.

 

[Stampede]

I kept seeing references to this contract business on Russian Telegram channels during the March of Justice craziness. I just now found Reuters piece about it. Media reports are not always correct, of course, According to this article:

MOSCOW, June 11 (Reuters) - Russia's most powerful mercenary said on Sunday that his Wagner fighters would not sign any contract with Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, publicly refusing an attempt by the defence ministry to bring his fighting force under its sway.

And:

The defence ministry said that in the interests of increasing the effectiveness of "volunteer detachments", all such units - or their men - would have to sign a contract with the defence ministry by July 1.

It did not mention Wagner by name but it routinely refers to Wagner as "volunteer assault detachments".

Link:

Prigozhin says Wagner will not sign contracts with Russia defence minister

The founder of the Wagner group, has repeatedly attacked President Vladimir Putin's top military brass for what he casts as treachery for failing to fight the war in Ukraine properly.

www.reuters.com

It is confusing, at least to me.




Yes, murky(!).

True. I don't think he's entirely mercenary (grin) and disagree with those who think it was all about money. Nor do I think Prigozhin is all 100% about power. Pride seems to have been involved, not just the puffed up sort of pride, but also the honor sort (as he defines honor). I think he may well have been genuinely concerned about and outraged at what he considered bad leadership that had, in his opinion, needlessly cost lives and territory. He appears to care about his men in his way and his own sense of honor very much bound up with looking out for them (again, in his way). And he apparently considers himself a Russian patriot. I presume the deal for amnesty for himself and his men included his agreeing to stop the march. Plus, he was likely to have been informed of the troops being flown into Moscow. Had he not stopped the march, he and his men would have been reviled as traitors who shed Russian blood rather than lauded as war heroes as they had previously been. This he may have considered a fate worse than death. I don't know all that much about the man, so I could well be wrong. I'm not praising the him, for sure, and glad I don't have him for a relative or neighbor.

There is certainly something I'm not seeing! Probably lots of somethings.



Absolutely a cost, and a very important one. Excellent point I left out.



So do I. I do have questions, though.

When exactly was the Wagner camp supposedly bombed? I keep reading it was June 23, but as I posted earlier, if that is correct, how on earth did they load and organize those columns so quickly? Again, I'm just a civvie and ignorant about such things.

The video Prigozhin posted of the alleged bomb site was not terribly convincing. He claimed a large number of his fighters were killed by this bomb. Yet it seemed he offered no proof. At least I never saw any. Not that I think he should have posted pictures of their bodies, but did he provide a list of their names to MOD? Surely he would have, no? Even if only for the sake of their families. Has there ever been any confirmation of his claims about this bombing? Or evidence he was mistaken or lying? If lying, how did he get all those guys to go along with it?

So many questions. And so much I don't know that I don't even know to ask questions about.

Yep this week has been weirdness on so many levels.
Fact, fiction, fantasy; It's difficult to join all the dots, but to say it's but one chapter with many more to follow.
This awful conflict is not over yet and Ukraine so far has only made relatively small gains in recent months.
So is this just wait and see for the big push ahead, or the stagnant battle field reality of two big Army's exchanging blows.
I'm not sure.
Suggest the next month or two will determine whether this conflict is wrapped up this year or becomes a forever nightmare dragging out into 2024 and beyond.


Cheers S

 

[OPSSG]

Can someone explain what happened in Russia?

Nothing I read in political science explains how a hotdog salesman turned warlord marched his private army towards Moscow and caused President Putin to back down.

Along the way, Prigozhin was adamant this was "a march for justice" and trash talks the entire Russian Ministry of Defence — the warlord downs 6 helicopters and a fixed wing aircraft.

Prigozhin is given legal immunity and allowed to leave for Belarus. There is also no international relations theory to fit the murky role played by President Alexander Lukashenko.

Is the answer: sometimes random crazy shit happens?

 

[ngatimozart]

There were Su-34 strikes reported but evidence is scant.

I saw a video where it was claimed that they shot down an IL-18. Funny looking Il-18 because it appeared to be a twin engined aircraft not a four engined one that the IL-18 is.

Well that would have looked horrible for Russia. Using VKS to kill Russian soldiers albeit Wagnerites. Wagnerites are veteran Russian soldiers using Russian equipment, it would have been a loss and caused a lot of morale issues in the home front.

It hasn't worried Putin before doing that so why should he worry now?

If they are the super veterans they market themselves them to be they might get good contracts. Also its not like they have a choice, its either join up or become illegal mutineers. Its not like they can take the Mod tot he courts and sue them.

What's a legal mutineer? Anyway the claim that they mutineed is not quite correct. You mutiny if you are in the military and I and @Rob c both served in the NZDF when mutiny was a capital offence. Now in comparison it's time in prison with early parole for good behaviour. Wagner were not in the military so they can't have mutineed because they are civilians. Rebellion is the better term because they did rebel against what they perceived as a series of injustices. Yes, it's semantics but the definition has to be clear, because in any military mutiny is one of the five most serious crimes. They are:

1. Cowardice in the face of the enemy.
2. Desertion.
3. Treason.
4. Mutiny.
5. Sedition.

Can someone explain what happened in Russia?

At present none of us outside of Wagner's senior leadership really know.

Nothing I read in political science explains how a hotdog salesman turned warlord marched his private army towards Moscow and caused President Putin to back down.

Along the way, Prigozhin was adamant this was "a march for justice" and trash talks the entire Russian Ministry of Defence — the warlord downs 6 helicopters and a fixed wing aircraft and is allowed to leave for Belarus.

There is also no international relations theory to fit the murky role played by President Alexander Lukashenko.

Is the answer: sometimes random crazy shit happens?

I have to agree that at the moment random crazy shit happened.

 

[Feanor]

Can someone explain what happened in Russia?

Nothing I read in political science explains how a hotdog salesman turned warlord marched his private army towards Moscow and caused President Putin to back down.

Along the way, Prigozhin was adamant this was "a march for justice" and trash talks the entire Russian Ministry of Defence — the warlord downs 6 helicopters and a fixed wing aircraft.

Prigozhin is given legal immunity and allowed to leave for Belarus. There is also no international relations theory to fit the murky role played by President Alexander Lukashenko.

Is the answer: sometimes random crazy shit happens?

The answer is, there are things we aren't seeing here. We don't have the full picture. And to be honest, I don't think Prigozhin's legal immunity is worth the paper it's written on. Unless there is a very good reason to keep him alive, he's likely going to die. Hence my surprise that he accepted any deal at all.

 

[swerve]

.... I think Prigozhin will have to stay well away from windows and tea from now on, because he knows only to well that Putin’s favoured method of eliminating traitors is poison....

And wear gloves when opening his door from the outside - see what happened in Salisbury.

 

[Feanor]

And wear gloves when opening his door from the outside - see what happened in Salisbury.

You can wear gloves and avoid tea and windows. But will he never ride in a car again? Car accidents happen. Will he stay indoors after dark, and not go anywhere without body guards? Will Belarus allow his forces to keep their MBTs and SAMs? If they're not part of the war effort, it's wasteful to let them keep rare assets like Pantsyr-S1s. Will Wagner refuse to hand those over even when they're clearly needed to protect things like the Chongar bridge?

 

[vikingatespam]

So, if I had to sum up the events of the last 2 days:

- the single most effective fighting formation (Wagner) has been broken up
- incompetent Shoigu remains in power
- the charismatic Wagner leader, Prog. has been exiled and may not live long
- the RU lost 7 (?) helis and 1 plane, as well as an petrol depot in Voronezh
- had a fair number of forces deployed away from UKR (Wagner and Ahkmat)
- showed Putin as weak (debatable, but I land on the negative side here)
- provided distraction from the UKR battles

Not a win for RU, but not as big of a loss as could of been.

 

[Rob c]

The answer is, there are things we aren't seeing here. We don't have the full picture. And to be honest, I don't think Prigozhin's legal immunity is worth the paper it's written on. Unless there is a very good reason to keep him alive, he's likely going to die. Hence my surprise that he accepted any deal at all.

I agree and think there must be more than we know about in the agreement as he will be aware of what happens to those who cross Putin and how reliable Putin is in keeping agreements that he does not see as an advantage to him. What is going on behind that what is published?

 

[ImperatorOrbis]

The answer is, there are things we aren't seeing here. We don't have the full picture. And to be honest, I don't think Prigozhin's legal immunity is worth the paper it's written on. Unless there is a very good reason to keep him alive, he's likely going to die. Hence my surprise that he accepted any deal at all.

Prigozhin is popular with the soldiers and with the civilians. I think Putin will wait a few months before considering killing off a Russian hero.

 

[Feanor]

So, if I had to sum up the events of the last 2 days:

- the single most effective fighting formation (Wagner) has been broken up
- incompetent Shoigu remains in power
- the charismatic Wagner leader, Prog. has been exiled and may not live long
- the RU lost 7 (?) helis and 1 plane, as well as an petrol depot in Voronezh
- had a fair number of forces deployed away from UKR (Wagner and Ahkmat)
- showed Putin as weak (debatable, but I land on the negative side here)
- provided distraction from the UKR battles

Not a win for RU, but not as big of a loss as could of been.

There is no way an armed rebellion inside your own country can be a win.

I agree and think there must be more than we know about in the agreement as he will be aware of what happens to those who cross Putin and how reliable Putin is in keeping agreements that he does not see as an advantage to him. What is going on behind that what is published?

How do you expect me to know that? It seems clear there's information missing. But what it could be... speculation.

 

[StobieWan]

The only sensible thing that Russia can do with Wagner is purge the leadership and then reform the fighting units into regular forces - once they've looked down the barrel of the gun that is a PMC with those capabilities behaving against state interests, I'd be expecting soviet levels of "reform"

And yes, Prigozhin really needs to find a country where he is at least nominally out of reach of Russia - Belarus is not it. His life expectancy will be measured against a Hamster's and found wanting.

 

[Dex]

The answer is, there are things we aren't seeing here. We don't have the full picture. And to be honest, I don't think Prigozhin's legal immunity is worth the paper it's written on. Unless there is a very good reason to keep him alive, he's likely going to die. Hence my surprise that he accepted any deal at all.

What is Russian Social Media saying about Prizoghin? Was there any Pro-Wagner sentiment?

 

[Rob c]

How do you expect me to know that? It seems clear there's information missing. But what it could be... speculation

I had no expectation that you would know, it was simply a general open question that at present we don't have an answer to.
Like you I was surprised by the acceptance and Prizoghin would know of Putin's record on dissent.

 

[Feanor]

What is Russian Social Media saying about Prizoghin? Was there any Pro-Wagner sentiment?

Generally the sentiment is that people agree with Prigozhin's criticism but disagree with an armed coup as an acceptable form of addressing the issues.

I had no expectation that you would know, it was simply a general open question that at present we don't have an answer to.
Like you I was surprised by the acceptance and Prizoghin would know of Putin's record on dissent.

Apologies, since the question was aimed at me, I assumed it was an actual query rather then something rhetorical.

 

[Larry_L]

Like everyone I am still confused. I have some speculations that are not worthy of airing in this thread. I do wish to leave you with a picture of Prigozhin as he leaves Rostov. I saw it in several different posts, and it haunted me until I found it back here in RFE. His expression looks .......... satisfied???

Vilnius Urges Beefed-Up NATO If Prigozhin In Belarus

Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda on June 25 warned that if Belarus is to host Wagner mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin, then NATO must strengthen its eastern flank.

www.rferl.org

I personally feel that NATO's flank is pretty well covered by article five, and whatever troops that are in the field.

 

[Beam]

If nothing else, the last couple of days have shown that Machiavelli's thoughts on mercenaries are as true today as ever.