The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread
- Thread starter Feanor
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- #7,802
If this is Wagner being sidelined and Prigozhin being put away, that's a big mistake. In terms of fighting strength, Wagner is quite important. And in terms of willingness to fight and absorb losses they're probably unparalleled among the Russian line-up. I don't think any other Russian element could have done what they did in Artemovsk/Bakhmut.
EDIT: The other thought I had was this. Prigozhin has been spreading fairly panicky mis-information about the Russian defense in Zaporozhye. He's made statements that suggested far deeper Ukrainian advances then even the most pro-Ukrainian sources have suggested. It's possible he was banking on a disaster for the Russian military in Zaporozhye with his coup meant to follow on top of that. Without the failure on the front his coup looks strange. But the strange non-happening of the whole thing doesn't make sense either.
EDIT2: I just realized the opposite is also true. Russian military leadership may have been wanting to put Prigozhin away for a while, but were concerned they might need him if things go badly in the south. Now that things have gone well, they can make this move.
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Be it actual or theatre in either case it puts Russia in a bad spot difference being only how much it costs them. Best case they may lose a large capable force that may or may not still fight them, worse case massive infighting possibly leading to civil war. In either case Ukraine comes out the victor because their toughest opponent disappears potentially or fighting so bad in Russia the Russians in Ukraine can't be sustained and whither away or pull out.
Capt. Ironpants
Active Member
All very good thinking. Right now I'm very curious what you make of most recent videos posted by this guy in Rostov:
Это Ростов новости
Предложить новость: @etorostov_admin Ростов Главный - @glavnyi_rostov Афиша, еда, мероприятия — @go_rnd Работа в Ростове — @rabotai_rostov Реклама/сотрудничество: @etorostov_admin Биржа: https://telega.in/c/etorostov
t.me
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- #7,805
Ok this looks less staged. The sides clearly appear reluctant to shoot at each other. It appears Wagner forces are using red markings instead of the typical MoD white.All very good thinking. Right now I'm very curious what you make of most recent videos posted by this guy in Rostov:
Это Ростов новости
Предложить новость: @etorostov_admin Ростов Главный - @glavnyi_rostov Афиша, еда, мероприятия — @go_rnd Работа в Ростове — @rabotai_rostov Реклама/сотрудничество: @etorostov_admin Биржа: https://telega.in/c/etorostov
vikingatespam
Well-Known Member
So we can agree at this point - something is up. We are past pure theatre ?
Edit: trying to find some live webcams in Rostov, with no luck so far
Edit: trying to find some live webcams in Rostov, with no luck so far
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #7,807
Piles of assorted fun. What look like Wagner forces in Rostov-na-Donu heading towards the South MD HQ. It seems Wagner brought a couple of MBTs decisively out-gunning the National Guard units defending it.
Voronezh region authorities are urging locals to avoid the M-4 high-way due to troop movements.
t.me
Russian National Guard moving towards Rostov-na-Donu and through Krasnodar.
t.me
What appear to be National Guard disembarking in Rostov-na-Donu.
The M-4 exiting Rotsov-na-Donu has been shut down towards Aksakay. Unclear by whom.
vk.com
Voronezh region authorities are urging locals to avoid the M-4 high-way due to troop movements.
Colonelcassad
Власти Воронежской области призывают жителей региона не пользоваться в ближайшее время трассой М-4. «По федеральной автомобильной дороге М-4 Дон движется колонна военной техники. Просим всех жителей Воронежской области временно не пользоваться федеральной автомобильной дорогой М-4 Дон и...
t.me
Russian National Guard moving towards Rostov-na-Donu and through Krasnodar.
Moscow calling
А чтобы вам спокойнее спалось, вот вам видео: 1 Центр Ростова; 2 Росгвардия на вьезде в Ростов; 3 Росгвардия в Краснодаре.
t.me
What appear to be National Guard disembarking in Rostov-na-Donu.
The M-4 exiting Rotsov-na-Donu has been shut down towards Aksakay. Unclear by whom.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #7,808
Unclear. But it looks less like theater now.
Capt. Ironpants
Active Member
That's what I was thinking about the red markings, but honestly had no clue. I take it the white armband guys are Wagner, but can't see so well on this little tablet of mine. (Again, apologies for my ignorance.)
There were reports that Prigozhin was seen earlier today in St. Petersburg, but have not seen confirmation of that (confirmation may be out there). If true, could they have arrested Prig there and his boys have set out to rescue him/stage a coup/other crazy thing? Still seems far fetched to me.
So far, it seems like they hope to talk the Wagners down? The civvies standing around don't seem too concerned, so I'm questioning whether it's really a standoff?
Meanwhile, I just looked again and supposedly shooting in Voronezh Oblast, just south of Voronezh on the M4, but could well be fake:
Это Ростов новости
Район Павловска, Воронежская область. Происходит стрелковое сражение. Перекрыт участок трассы М4. На ней колонна военной техники, в том числе танки. Подпишись на наш Телеграм http://t.me/etorostov
t.me
EDIT: Looked again and now it seems to me the white armband guys are Guards, not Wagner. But what do I know?
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There is a utube posting by "The Enforcer " running a live stream of events covering when Wagner pointed tank guns at the military headquarters and have been joined by troops there in Rostov on Don and has reported one of the Wagner columns at less than 380 miles from Moscow
Capt. Ironpants
Active Member
He seems to be getting most of his info from the Kyiv Post, so ... salt. But perhaps there is something to the Wagner tank(s) aiming at the
Southern Military District HQ in Rostov. See:
I haven't seen evidence yet that regular troops joined the Wagners, but plenty that looks like some sort of wary standoff with Guards in prone positions on sidewalks aiming their rifles at the Wagners in some cases, but not firing at them.
Whatever is going on, I'm definitely filing this under Wars Can Be So Strange.
EDIT:
And now for a little fun with tanks and scooters:
Это Ростов новости
Кто на танках, кто на самокатах.. ⚡️Подпишись на паблик «Это Ростов!». Всё новости у нас. @etorostov Прислать новости/Реклама: @etorostov_admin
t.me
And unfazed street sweepers:
Это Ростов новости
⚡️⚡️ Вот это любовь к Ростову! Пока танки целятся в штаб ЮВО, женщина подметает Пушкинскую. @etorostov Прислать новости/Реклама: @etorostov_admin
t.me
On a more serious note, something does appear to be up around Pavlovsy M4 highway in Voronezh Oblast after all.
PRIGOZHIN ARRIVES at Southern Military District HQ in Rostov:
Это Ростов новости
Евгений Пригожин сейчас в штабе ЮВО в Ростове на Буденновском http://t.me/etorostov
t.me
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Capt. Ironpants
Active Member
He's claiming Southern Military District HQ in Rostov and some military airfield (sorry, my Russian is really rusty these days, could not quite make it out) are under his control:
KipPotapych
Well-Known Member
Yes, he is basically saying that the airfield is under his control, but the sorties are flying out uninterupted. According to him, Wagner is there to make sure that the planes are flying out to bomb Ukrainians and not Wagner (literally what he is saying). Medevac is flying uninterrupted as well, just like everything else. They are there to make sure things are nice and dandy.He's claiming Southern Military District HQ in Rostov and some military airfield (sorry, my Russian is really rusty these days, could not quite make it out) are under his control:
Furthermore, the reported casualties are three (and more) times higher than what is reported “to the top”, which includes killed, wounded, missing in action, and those who stopped fighting not because they are afraid but because they don’t have any choice due to the lack of equipment. The main military dude in Rostov had run off when he heard the Wagner coming to the headquarters. Something like that.
Not sure what to make of it all at this point. Does read like a bad movie script. Starting with theRU military dropping bombs on Wagner.
Edit: Also, if the frontline falls apart, it is not because they are blocking Rostov because they aren’t, so no one should believe such reports if any come through at some point in the near future. This would be due to incompetence of the top command, etc.
What I have picked up from Telegram and used Google Translate.
t.me
t.me
t.me
t.me
Did the alleged air strike against Wagner actually happen? There's a lot of fog and haze surrounding this and it's quite difficult to sort fact fom fiction. A lot of western media are running the coup attempt angle. This is the BBC:
Reuters:
/cloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com/reuters/ISYX63JWRRLPFPKV5BX2PU4Q7M.jpg)
www.reuters.com
And Al Jazeera:
www.aljazeera.com
Straits Times from Singapore:
www.straitstimes.com
Daily Sabah (Turkiye):
www.dailysabah.com
All the news media in NZ are running with it too.
Many questions and few answers.
Voronezh region ... Marine air strike against Wagner PMC equipment ...
Supernova+
Я не знаю как это комментировать, что-то просто не поддающиеся объяснению произошло сейчас. Пригожин обвинил МО в обстреле тыловых районов ЧВК, с его слов огромное количество погибших и он вышел с подразделениями за справедливостью. Вот точно не время и не место этому всему было.
t.me
I don't know how to comment on this, something just inexplicable happened just now.
Prigozhin accused the Moscow Region of shelling the rear areas of PMCs, in his words a huge number of dead, and he went out with units for justice.
That was definitely not the time and place for all this.
Colonelcassad
Губернатор Голубев о ситуации в Ростове. «Дал необходимые поручения ростовской городской администрации и службам жизнеобеспечения Ростова принимать необходимые меры по сохранению нормального функционирования всех городских систем. Держу вопрос на контроле, регулярно заслушивая доклады. Еще раз...
t.me
Governor Golubev on the situation in Rostov.
“I gave the necessary instructions to the Rostov city administration and the life support services of Rostov to take the necessary measures to preserve the normal functioning of all city systems. I keep the issue under control, regularly listening to reports.
Once again I ask Rostovites not to leave their homes unnecessarily and not to come to the center of the Don capital.
Colonelcassad
В Москве проводятся антитеррористические мероприятия, направленные на усиление мер безопасности. Введен дополнительный контроль на дорогах. Возможно ограничение проведения массовых мероприятий. Прошу отнестись с пониманием к принимаемым мерам (с) мэр Москвы Сергей Собянин
t.me
Antiterrorist measures aimed at strengthening security measures are being carried out in Moscow. Additional control on the roads has been introduced. It is possible to limit the holding of public events. Please treat the measures taken with understanding (c) Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin
Colonelcassad
Больше всего меня поражают зеваки, которые в белых кроссовках ходят среди вооруженных людей и танков в Ростове. Я понимаю, что тик-ток давно сожрал ваши мозги. Но инстинкт самосохранения должен работать хоть на 1%. Немедленно отойдите от людей в форме и бронетехники. Это не парад, есть шанс, что...
t.me
What strikes me most is the onlookers who walk in white sneakers among armed men and tanks in Rostov. I understand that tik tok ate your brains a long time ago. But the instinct of self-preservation should work at least 1%. Move away from uniformed men and armored vehicles immediately. This is not a parade, there is a chance that you will not be able to show these pictures to anyone else!
The situation is tense, why irritate the security forces and get under their feet? Come home, get off the street. What you think of as heroism is in fact a complete idiot. I repeat once again, step back and do not interfere with the security forces. You don't want the lavender raff hunt to be the last of your life, do you?
Alexander Kharchenko
Did the alleged air strike against Wagner actually happen? There's a lot of fog and haze surrounding this and it's quite difficult to sort fact fom fiction. A lot of western media are running the coup attempt angle. This is the BBC:
Reuters:
Rebel Russian mercenaries turn back short of Moscow 'to avoid bloodshed'
The Kremlin will drop charges again Wagner mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin, who will move to Belarus under a deal to end an armed mutiny that Prigozhin led against Russia's military leadership.
www.reuters.com
And Al Jazeera:
Wagner chief to go into exile after backing down on Moscow march
Prigozhin’s decision came after Belarus’s leader Alexander Lukashenko said he negotiated with the mercenary boss.
Straits Times from Singapore:
Wagner chief accused by Kremlin of mutiny says his men have crossed into Russia, ready to go ‘all the way’
His warning prompted Russian authorities to tighten security measures in several regions. Read more at straitstimes.com.
Daily Sabah (Turkiye):
FSB probes Wagner boss for coup attempt in Russia
Russia's security agency FSB said it has launched an investigation over Wagner Group's boss Yevgeny Prigozhin's comments, which 'amounted to...
www.dailysabah.com
All the news media in NZ are running with it too.
Many questions and few answers.
If the Russian National Guard is refusing to engage Wagner forces in Rostov-na-Donu this is bad news for Putin. Could easily see Wagner forces just march into Moscow unopposed. Wagner does have supporters in the Russian military.
Prigozhin has invited Russian soldiers to join him or at least not oppose him and it wouldn't surprise me if this is what will happen.
Really it is up to Prigozhin to convince enough people that his coup attempt is credible. If he does then momentum will build and you will see more people join him.
Prigozhin has invited Russian soldiers to join him or at least not oppose him and it wouldn't surprise me if this is what will happen.
Really it is up to Prigozhin to convince enough people that his coup attempt is credible. If he does then momentum will build and you will see more people join him.
KipPotapych
Well-Known Member
Putin is to make an address shortly, whatever that means (via Google translate):
Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Vladimir Putin will make an address in the near future. He didn't give the details.
"Indeed, Putin will make an address in the near future," Mr. Peskov answered a question from TASS.
Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Vladimir Putin will make an address in the near future. He didn't give the details.
"Indeed, Putin will make an address in the near future," Mr. Peskov answered a question from TASS.
Capt. Ironpants
Active Member
Thank you, @KipPotapych -- Iunderstood him to say they were not hampering the war effort out of the airfield, but was a bit confused about where the airfield is. I assumed near Rostov, but not sure. Is it me, or does Prigozhin sound like he has mush (or rather kasha) in his mouth? Hard for me to understand him. Also, one wonders how much is true (re the commander running off, etc.)
Agree with @ngatimozart -- more questions than answers. Western media all giddy. Good roundup you did there. The supposed bombing or shelling of Wagner's rear makes no sense -- why attack the poor schmucks at the rear? It's all very odd.
I doubt they want an armed confrontation in an urban area. That's for sure. They could have easily bombed him and his convoy before they got to Rostov, couldn't they? But that would hardly go over well. Perhaps they figure he'll cool off some before he makes it to Moscow? Probably not. Or they plan to take him out on some lonely stretch of road? Maybe Putin wants rid of Shoigu and is going to let it play out a bit. Truly, it's all quite bizarre. Or maybe it's really a whacky sort of coup. Who knows?
Agree with @ngatimozart -- more questions than answers. Western media all giddy. Good roundup you did there. The supposed bombing or shelling of Wagner's rear makes no sense -- why attack the poor schmucks at the rear? It's all very odd.
I get the distinct impression Prigozhin is actually after Shoigu & Friends, not Putin, but of course it could be a ploy on his part or a misreading on mine. If you look at the videos posted earlier, you can see Guards taking up positions and aiming at the Wagners, but holding their fire and seeming quite calm. Then the videos at the Southern Military District HQ -- it's almost as if he's being treated as someone they are "handling" him as in "yes, Mr. Bats-in-the-Belfry, let's have a cup of tea and a nice chat", allow him to blow off steam and say his piece -- or play his role in this weird movie, take your pick.
I doubt they want an armed confrontation in an urban area. That's for sure. They could have easily bombed him and his convoy before they got to Rostov, couldn't they? But that would hardly go over well. Perhaps they figure he'll cool off some before he makes it to Moscow? Probably not. Or they plan to take him out on some lonely stretch of road? Maybe Putin wants rid of Shoigu and is going to let it play out a bit. Truly, it's all quite bizarre. Or maybe it's really a whacky sort of coup. Who knows?
KipPotapych
Well-Known Member
So basically Putin called it a coup and backstabbing. Promised to defend from treason, which is what Prigozhin is accused of. Hard response and all participating parties will be punished, etc. Those who organized and participated in the coup, betrayed their countrymen will be severely punished, and so on. We will be stronger than ever together. Everyone should go back to where they belong.Putin is to make an address shortly, whatever that means (via Google translate):
Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Vladimir Putin will make an address in the near future. He didn't give the details.
"Indeed, Putin will make an address in the near future," Mr. Peskov answered a question from TASS.
Interesting.