The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update on Zaporozhye.

There basically hasn't been any significant movement. After failed Ukrainian attacks on the Vremyevskiy bulge, the fighting is mostly back and forth around Pyatihatka. The latest info has Russia counter-attacking again into the village.


Assorted footage from the fighting around Pyatihatka.


Vremyevskiy bulge, we saw the Ukrainian T-72B3 run over a friendly MRAP due to panic after getting hit by a Russian loitering munition. Here's the results up close.


2 Husky TSVs destroyed near Novodonetskoe.


More footage of the captured Oshkosh near Novodonetskoe.


A destroyed Mastiff MRAP near Novodonetskoe.


The same destroyed Samaritan MEDEVAC we saw above.


A destroyed Oshkosh, 3 other armored vehicles, and a T-64BV. Location and context unclear.


A Ukrainian MBT getting destroyed, Zaporozhye area. Can't tell if T-72 or T-64. In recent days we've seen the Leo-2s get replaced by a mix of T-64s and T-72s, likely with different units getting rotated in.


Ukrainian MRAP getting hit in Zaporozhye area. Allegedly Russia's 127th MRD at work.


More of Russian Ka-52s at work.

 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
The Russians are claiming that the Ukrainians have attacked the Chongmar and other bridges that connect Crimea with Ukraine. The Russian Occupation Governor for Crimea claims that the missiles were Storm Shadow, but if two or more Storm Shadow missiles hit that bridge, it would have a far bigger hole in it, just saying.
Chongar Strait, UKR.png


The Drive situation report dated 21/7/23.
  • Prigozhin is still pataking in his favorite sport; attacking the Russian military.
  • National Security and Defense Council (NSDC) Secretary Oleksiy Danilov urged Russians living in Crimea to flee. She told them to make good use of the Kerch Bridge before it's to late.
  • Apparently fortifications are being built between the border with mainland Ukraine and the logistical hub in Jankoi in the north of Crimea.
  • A VMF floating dock has sunk in Sevastopol. No indications about the cause of the sinking, but H I Sutton notes that a floating dock containing a submarine sunk there four years ago.
  • UKR partisans have blown up railway tracks in the port of Fedosia, Crimea.
  • The Russians claim that three UKR drones were downed near Moscow.
My usual Ukrainian report which has a different account of the Zarporizhzhia front. It's contrary to the Rybar claims posted by Feanor above.

Video from inside the UKR trenches.

Video discussion with the Tank Museum at Bonnington, UK, about the various tanks being used in the Russo Ukrainian War. It is quite informative.
NATO Tanks Special: Inside the vehicles fighting Putin on the Frontline | @thetankmuseum

UK Forces News on western training of UKR forces.
Ukraine's counter-offensive an 'acid test' of its Western training
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
The Russians are claiming that the Ukrainians have attacked the Chongmar and other bridges that connect Crimea with Ukraine. The Russian Occupation Governor for Crimea claims that the missiles were Storm Shadow, but if two or more Storm Shadow missiles hit that bridge, it would have a far bigger hole in it, just saying.
View attachment 50600
It's no claim. Ukraine definitely hit the bridge. We even have video of the alleged moment of impact. The Russian liberation governor of Kherson region came for a visit. The intent is undoubtedly to canalize Russian logistics and make them easier to strike, as well more difficult for Russia to resupply. Whether this plays out or not remains to be seen. At the end of the day, with a wide strip of land from the Russian border to Kherson region, Russia can in principle supply through the land route just fine. Since the truck explosion on the Crimean bridge there are reportedly no more trucks being used on that bridge.


In other news Russia may have finally struck an M-270 MLRS (possibly the MARS-2 variant). This is near Orekhov. It's a reminder that all equipment no matter how good or how far from the front line can be hit. On the flip side the survivability of Ukrainian HIMARS and M-270s has been outstanding. Ukraine has done a good job of firing and relocating, and keeping the systems hidden. Clearly Russia has problems striking maneuvering targets that far behind enemy lines. In this case it may have gotten too close to the front line.

EDIT: It appears to be an IMR-2 engineer vehicle on MBT chassis. See 3rd link.


And lastly it appears the Russian offensive on the Oskol front is a reality, the earlier reports were correct. Russia appears to be attacking in two unconnected efforts. One is a push out of Kremennaya, north of Seversk. Given that it's coupled with renewed Russian front attacks at Belogorovka it's likely the eventual target of this effort is Seversk. The other is a continuing Russian expansion of their area of control north of Kupyansk. The obvious target there is Kupyansk itself. These efforts aren't particularly massive and could be intended to draw Ukrainian reserves away from Zaporozhye. They could also be opportunistic gains as Ukraine is focused elsewhere. Lastly the Russian leadership may have concluded that Ukraine's effort in Zaporozhye is a failure and it's time for Russia to go on the offensive. If the 3rd option is true, I suspect Russian leadership is sorely mistaken. Ukraine's offensive in the south is far from over.


EDIT: It appears Russian air defenses were in action at the Chogar bridge, and some sources claim Russia intercepted 3 of the 6 inbounds, but of course failed to actually protect the bridge. We have a video from the inside of a Pantsyr with a failed intercept attempt.

 
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ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
It's no claim. Ukraine definitely hit the bridge. We even have video of the alleged moment of impact. The Russian liberation governor of Kherson region came for a visit. The intent is undoubtedly to canalize Russian logistics and make them easier to strike, as well more difficult for Russia to resupply. Whether this plays out or not remains to be seen. At the end of the day, with a wide strip of land from the Russian border to Kherson region, Russia can in principle supply through the land route just fine. Since the truck explosion on the Crimean bridge there are reportedly no more trucks being used on that bridge.


In other news Russia may have finally struck an M-270 MLRS (possibly the MARS-2 variant). This is near Orekhov. It's a reminder that all equipment no matter how good or how far from the front line can be hit. On the flip side the survivability of Ukrainian HIMARS and M-270s has been outstanding. Ukraine has done a good job of firing and relocating, and keeping the systems hidden. Clearly Russia has problems striking maneuvering targets that far behind enemy lines. In this case it may have gotten too close to the front line.

EDIT: It appears to be an IMR-2 engineer vehicle on MBT chassis. See 3rd link.


And lastly it appears the Russian offensive on the Oskol front is a reality, the earlier reports were correct. Russia appears to be attacking in two unconnected efforts. One is a push out of Kremennaya, north of Seversk. Given that it's coupled with renewed Russian front attacks at Belogorovka it's likely the eventual target of this effort is Seversk. The other is a continuing Russian expansion of their area of control north of Kupyansk. The obvious target there is Kupyansk itself. These efforts aren't particularly massive and could be intended to draw Ukrainian reserves away from Zaporozhye. They could also be opportunistic gains as Ukraine is focused elsewhere. Lastly the Russian leadership may have concluded that Ukraine's effort in Zaporozhye is a failure and it's time for Russia to go on the offensive. If the 3rd option is true, I suspect Russian leadership is sorely mistaken. Ukraine's offensive in the south is far from over.


EDIT: It appears Russian air defenses were in action at the Chogar bridge, and some sources claim Russia intercepted 3 of the 6 inbounds, but of course failed to actually protect the bridge. We have a video from the inside of a Pantsyr with a failed intercept attempt.

The Ukrainians apparently haven't committed the bulk of their forces to the Zaporozhye front. Various accounts I have seen believe that only 1/3rd of Ukrainian forces destined as part of their counter offensive, have so far been involved. They believe that Ukraine is still battlefield shaping and probing for weak points in the Russian defensive line. Time will tell.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
The Ukrainians apparently haven't committed the bulk of their forces to the Zaporozhye front. Various accounts I have seen believe that only 1/3rd of Ukrainian forces destined as part of their counter offensive, have so far been involved. They believe that Ukraine is still battlefield shaping and probing for weak points in the Russian defensive line. Time will tell.
It might be less then 1/3rd. We mostly see company tactical groups trying to breach the minefield with support assets, and platoon-sized recon elements trying to find ways through or around. So while the casualties are nasty, Ukraine can keep doing this for quite a while. The question in my mind is still the same. Can Russia keep doing this? Modern ATGMs and attack helos are scarce currently. Artillery is better but much of it isn't the good 152mm howitzer variety but instead MT-12s or T-55s/62s repurposed for indirect fire. Loitering munitions are also a scarce resource. FPV drones less so, but still not unlimited. Ukraine is burning through manpower and equipment doing this, but Russia is burning through PGM stocks.

EDIT: On the subject of Ukrainian shaping.

Here's a list of recent Ukrainian strikes against Russian logistics choke points.


And we have a pontoon bridge apparently almost immediately after the Ukrainian strike on the Chongar bridge. This remind us of the situation with the Antonov bridge but with a significant difference. This one isn't in artillery range.

 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Oskol Front.

It appears Russia is trying to take Belogorovka, from the north and the east. In the Kremennaya woods, Russian VDV are inching towards the river, while Russian forces dead east are pushing to take some significant heights in the area. Further north Russian forces are also pushing on Zarechnoye and Torskoe. Again it seems likely the ultimate target is Seversk, but it remains to be seen whether the stalemate that's dominated this axis can be broken. It's possible the attacks from the east are a fixing effort, while the push from the north will attempt to cut the supply lines through Grigoryevka.

 

vikingatespam

Well-Known Member
Artillery is better but much of it isn't the good 152mm howitzer variety but instead MT-12s or T-55s/62s repurposed for indirect fire. Loitering munitions are also a scarce resource.
Do we have any hard data on the type of artillery pieces of RU in this area ? I would be delighted to know if they are forced to use the field expedients instead of dedicated pieces.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Do we have any hard data on the type of artillery pieces of RU in this area ? I would be delighted to know if they are forced to use the field expedients instead of dedicated pieces.
Hard data? Very little. We have verbal reports of Russian T-55s and 62s being used as artillery near Pyatihatka. MT-12s are generally being used as indirect fire on almost every axis. We have one video of an entire Russian Msta-S battery (iirc 4 guns, unclear if reduced battery size or 2 didn't get spotted) getting hit. Given the overall state of Russian forces I would assume field expedients being used. This is at this point the norm. Russia even uses BMP-3s 100mm guns for indirect fire.
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
Hearing a lot of Twitter chatter about an alleged Wagner mini-coup against Russia's gov. Not gonna link anything because nothing's substantiated yet.
 

Capt. Ironpants

Active Member
Yes, Twitter is all lit up and quite the circus. Some sanity to be found here:

 

vikingatespam

Well-Known Member
Yes, Twitter is all lit up and quite the circus. Some sanity to be found here:

This has GOT to be some political theatre. No way would Prig. talk this way without Putin's blessing.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
All good coups need to maintain and add up momentum. Seems that Wagner are certainly trying to do just that:
Something seems to be happening. Military vehicles were spotted in down town Rostov-na-Donu, and Moscow. Note these appear to be National Guard, in other words exactly what you would expect to counter-act a coup attempt.


Increased security measures are reported in Moscow and Rostov-na-Donu around the HQ of South MD.


Meanwhile Boris Rozhin is of the opinion that this is essentially nothing. He's claiming the increased security measures are minimal and that nothing is happening around the Wagner center in St. Petersburg.


Generals Surovikin and Alekseev recorded videos calling to Wagner commanders not to follow orders from Prigozhin and to halt any movement of their formations. Both of those commanders have established links with Wagner.


EDIT: The center of Rostov, everything appears to be quiet.

 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Amid all this fun an excitement Russia appears to have eaten a second Caesar howitzer. It flips on the road after dodging a Russian loitering munition. Then gets hit directly, while CASEVAC from the accident is being done, in the roadside greenery. So far the Caesar and PzH-2000 demonstrate the greatest survivability of all Ukrainian artillery systems by a long way.

 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
Same BTR rolling down Moscow streets, I wouldn't give it much credibility. Reports about something big going down in St Petersburg (Wagner offices) also turned out to be false.
And now we're seeing what is likely some scare posts that almost always turn out false. How do we know? Too much hysteria among Russians is implied.

But simultaneously, some western officials are saying it's "the real deal".

There's this interesting statement from a Russia separatist group - "Liberty of Russia Legion"

 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
Basically everything posted above in regards to the “coup” is straight up UA propaganda outlets (Feanor and Capt Ironpants aside).

I wouldn’t believe it till I see it, so to speak.
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
Basically everything posted above in regards to the “coup” is straight up UA propaganda outlets (Feanor and Capt Ironpants aside).

I wouldn’t believe it till I see it, so to speak.
That's kinda the point. There are many methods to authenticate info. One of them is to judge the tone in which information is presented.
Anton Geraschenko presents excessive levels of Russian hysteria. So authenticity is low.
Liberty of Russia legion present a written speech, no verbal and visual address, and it is perhaps more emotional and less practical than needed right now. Also rather low authenticity.
Jason presents a massively retweeted video. Fire can be seen behind trees so staying behind the first tree line that could be passed to provide much better footage, is really sus. Also low authenticity.
 
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