The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

vikingatespam

Well-Known Member
BMP-3 ammo is still in production today. They can presumably use ammo from 2 weeks ago assuming they can get it to the front fast enough.

Yes. The secret is in the details. The BMP-3 gun HE-FRAG is apparently compatible with the BS-3. And comically it's a poor HE-FRAG around as a result, since the BS-3 is a high-velocity gun requiring shells to have thicker sides to withstand the higher pressures and heat. But on the flip side the caliber of the BS-3 and D-10T are a perfect match 100mm X 695mm. I even recall reading somewhere that this was the reason for the 100mm caliber gun (as opposed to some other caliber) on the BMP-3.
It possible that the BMP-3 low pressure ammo is usable in the D-10T but not the other way around (like trying to use .38 Super in a .38 Auto pistol) if they are dimensionally identical. Given the poor RU logistics, the idea of introducing a visually identical round that would cause a head blow out in the chamber of a BMP-3 is a really bad idea.

BUT - now you have a round with 1/3 the range (from V) from a gun with a max elevation of 18 degrees. You still have to train 4 guys to run the tank. None of them probably have been inside of one. You have to scrounge up some sort of commo to the arty batteries.

This smacks of desperation.
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
I don't know where you got this idea but it's absolutely not true.
Sorry for the confusion, Feanor. The question was sort of tongue in cheek because some people suggest that this is the case, as well as our position and, hence, “hand of support” since 2014.
 

Rob c

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
s a not-Ukrainian, I have to wonder does UKR really want areas (LPR, DPR, Crimea) full of hostile people likely to continue a RU-funded guerilla war ? Logically no. But if UKR gives these area up, what will RU give in return ?
I would suspect that if Ukraine took back these area's that most of the pro Russian population would want out and leave. It is very hard to know what percentage of the population is truly strongly pro Russian as neither side is likely to publish a remotely accurate numbers to this question.
 
I made a post about it a couple or so moths ago, outlining that UA needs external help in the amount of (at the very least) about $120 billion annually just to stay afloat and keep fighting (note, not succeed, but to keep fighting). It hasn’t changed since and not going to in the foreseeable future.
The amount is tiny compard to the money wasted by NATO countries during Covid lockdowns. If the West could afford Covid, it can also afford to support Ukraine for decades (as it would still be much cheaper). From a money perspective, helping Ukraine costs nothing.

@contricusc Such commenting WRT COVID-19 isn't welcome here because it is political. Don't do it again or there will be consequences.

Ngatimozart
 
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ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
If Ukraine has some quick successes, I wouldn't be surprised if there is an even faster collapse in the Russian army when the panic sets in for the inevitable defeat.
I wouldn't count on Ukrainian quick successes happening. It could end up being a hard slog. Also this mooted Ukrainian spring offensive won't be the last. I suspect that they will have to have subsequent offensives to push Russia back over its borders.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Elements of the media are claiming this now puts the Kerch bridge in range. (The bridge is roughly 300km from the front line and Wikipedia quotes the missile range of 560km.)

Storm Shadow has a lot more punch than your standard HIMARS strike as well. This really could be a critical move if everything comes together as planned.
Storm Shadows range is given as +250km. Wikipedia isn't a reliable source.
EDIT; It appears Ukraine's counter-offensive has begun around Artemovsk/Bakhmut, aimed against the Russian Min-Def units that took over from Wagner forces on the flanks. Consequently they've regained some ground on multiple directions. So far these are small tactical gains and it's not immediately obvious if it's a fundamental failure of the Russian units or Ukrainian forces taking advantage of the handover as a moment of disorganization. According to Russian sources, the last Ukrainian stronghold in the city, The Nest, is currently being assaulted by Wagner forces with less then 700m left to the city outskirts.

Ukrainian sources are reporting Ukrainian gains to the south of Bakhmut with Russian forces exiting stage right at a great rate of knots.


Desperation can lead to some really dumb decisions. No idea how the coming offensive will work out but a major success or failure is not likely and this $hitshow will continue. At some point the losses in both treasure and blood will have to be accounted for by both sides (and allies) and decisions on negotiating will hopefully result.
I understand that the US has told Putin in unequivocal terms what the terrible price that Russia would pay if he uses a nuke in the war.

Ukrainian video of the shot down Kinzhal.


Destruction of a Russian truck mounted MLRS.

 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Interesting assessment of Russian PGM based on the analysis of recovered missile parts. The info seems to confirm the Russians are facing shortages as new production is being used almost immediately. Attacks now use fewer missiles. Sanctions now seem to be having an effect.

 

seaspear

Well-Known Member

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update. Mar. 26th-28th

Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa.


A sea mine hit a coastal structure in Odessa. No casualties reported.


Russian security forces reportedly found a weapons cache in Kherson region near Shevchenko village.


Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk.

Ukrainian M109 getting hit near Zaporozhye.


Ukrainian FH70 crew in Zaporozhye area.


Reportedly strikes hit two college campuses in Melitopol'. Russia is claiming they downed two of the 4 inbounds.


Russian strikes against Dnepropetrovsk.


The North.


Russian strikes landing in Kiev.


Ukrainian 2S7 troop training heading from Kiev region towards the Donbas.


Oskol Front.

Russian forces using the 2B25 Gall silent mortar in the woods near Kremennaya.


Russian Ka-52 lobbing rockets in the woods near Kremennaya.


Russian sniper fires in the woods near Kremennaya.


Russia TOS-1 strike on the Krasniy Liman axis.


Russian BARS Kaskad, not to be confused with the DNR Kaskad btln (both likely named after the famous Soviet SpN unit from the Afghan war) near Kupyansk, putting together a Supercam S350 UAV.


Allegeldy leaked Ukrainian info on the aircraft supporting Ukrainian forces out of Kharkov area. It lists 1 MiG-29, 2 Su-27, 1 Su-25, 2 Su-24, and 1 Mi-8.


LDNR Front.

Ukrainian tank fires, 93rd Mech Bde, inside Artemovsk/Bakhmut against advancing Wagner forces. Note the tank is a captured Russian T-80UD, likely from the 4th Guards Tanks.


Russian Grad strikes hitting the western outskirts of Artemovsk/Bakhmut.


Footage from the AZOM factory in Artemovsk/Bakhmut.


Footage of the ruins of Artemovsk/Bakhmut. Fires burn.


Wagner fighters posing with a destroyed MaxxPro MRAP, Artemovsk/Bakhmut.


Ukrainian Iveco Magirus 90-16 truck towing an ancient D-44 anti-tank gun from 1944. It will likely be a good match for Russian T-54s.


Assorted footage of Wagner fighters inside Artemovsk/Bakhmut.


Allegedly a Ukrainian T-64 burns near Avdeevka.


Russian 2S4 fires near Avdeevka.


Russian incendiary strikes against Avdeevka.


Allegedly Russian strikes on Ukrainian infantry in the treeline near Avdeevka.


Somewhere near Donetsk, a Russian Grad catches fire after a Ukrainian quadcopter munition drop. The crew tries to put out the flames, then a fire truck shows up. Presumably the MLSR isn't loaded.


Kurakhovo area, near Donetsk, a Ukrainian M777 getting hit by a loitering munition. Note what appears to be ammo cooking off afterwards. The position looks well prepared too, with the underground shelter next to it.


Allegedly a Ukrainian T-64BV and ZiL-131 truck near Ugledar.


Footage of the ruins of Ugledar from above.


Lisichansk was hit allegedly by 3 155mm shells, damaging a hospital, a kindergarten, and some housing.


Russia struck Slavyansk, near a local military commissariat. Reportedly 2 killed and 29 wounded.


Allegedly a HIMARS strike hit Donetsk, one target possibly a Russian staging area given the military truck next to the building.


A car bomb went off in Mariupol' next to a ruined cafe. Reportedly the target was a local police official who survived.


Russian Z-STS in Lugansk region. This mobilization armored truck has become more common recently as replacements for lost IFVs and APCs are hard to come by.


Russian National Guard column near Severodonetsk-Lisichansk. There's a BTR-82A, a BTR-80, Patrul-A armored car, Ural-VV, Tigr-M, and an armored Kamaz.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Russia.

Kireevsk, Tula region, a Ukrainian Tu-141 UAV fell. 3 civilians reported wounded. Russian sources are claiming a Pole-21 EW system was used to bring it down.


Rustam Muradov the general responsible for Russia's failed attacks at Ugledar has been removed. Lieutenant General Andrei Kuzmneko is taking over for him.


Russia is building beach fortifications in Crimea, on the side facing the Azov sea.


Two Z-STS trucks collided on the Crimean bridge.


Russian troop train with T-62Ms.


Misc.

Allegedly a Ukrainian Krab and Bergenpanzer-2 getting taken out by Krasnopol' strikes.


Allegedly this Ukrainian T-72M1 had it's cannon explode, and the tank catch fire, killing the crew, after firing many rounds.


A lucky Russian 2S1 survived a near miss counter-battery strike.


Russian T-90M survived a shot to its side armor due to the Relikt armor working.


Ukrainian troops bailing out of a MaxxPro that fell in what appears to be a river.


Ukrainian Kipri MRAP column after taking fire, apparently still intact.


A look at the completed T-62 ARV conversion, Ukrainian.


Ukrainian Su-25s getting serviced at an airbase in southern Ukraine.


Russian UAV crew hooking up a KZ-6 cumulative charge to a Lancet-3 loitering munition.


Russian Su-25 taking off with S-24B unguided 240mm rockets.


NATO/EU.

Northern Macedonia is reportedly considering handing over 12 Mi-24 helos to Ukraine.


Allegedly a first sighting of a Cougar 6X6 MRAP handed over to Ukraine.


AS90 howitzers passing through Slovakia on their way to Ukraine.


Ukrainian service members training on Marders in Germany.


Reportedly Ukrainian tankers have finished training in the UK and have returned home.


Reportedly all 18 German Leo-2A6s have arrived in Ukraine.

 

swerve

Super Moderator
Russia is building beach fortifications in Crimea, on the side facing the Azov sea.
Wow!

Fear that they won't be able to hold the northern shore? Cautiously covering the worst case? Fortifying Crimea in preparation for withdrawal from the mainland?
 

Larry_L

Active Member
Wow!

Fear that they won't be able to hold the northern shore? Cautiously covering the worst case? Fortifying Crimea in preparation for withdrawal from the mainland?
I have long suspected that many of the defense constructions have been milking of the budget. Possibly also rewarding loyalist enterprises. If this is from fear of the offensive they are in worse shape than I thought they were.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
Putin already say in May Parade that Russia facing new war.


They are building defense in Moscow, they are building defense in sea of Japan, so they are naturally beef up defense in Crimea. Rather then Russia preparing set back, it is also likely sign Russia going on preparation for all out war.

Thus potentially they go nuclear if cornered should not going to be said as bluff anymore. Cornered nation will preparing to use everything they got. Putin now preparing his nation for war against NATO.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group

Wagner seems now behave like Ukrainian Nationalist Militia (Azov as example), that rumours being use to make sure UA regular military not faltering in war. Ukrainian and Russian military mostly afterall civilian conscripts.

More clues in my opinion that Prigozhin rantings actually under Putin blessing to 'whipped' Russian military.
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
It is unclear whether Prigozhin is telling the truth at any point when he is talking though. For example, this guy (Commander (UA) of the 1st Assault Battalion with a call-sign Rollo, according to CNN) says it was the Wagner troops who ran and the unit he is “badmouthing” fought to the end:

Quote: "Prigozhin is a liar. Because the first to flee were Wagner [Group fighters – ed.]...Actually, the [Russian Armed Forces’] unit he’s bad mouthing fought to the end," Rollo said.


The CNN, being the source:

 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
Russia is building beach fortifications in Crimea, on the side facing the Azov sea.

I found this interesting, as I see did others. I then looked at the original source they took it from, Crimeanwind Telegram channel. Interesting channel, seems like pick and choose “pro-Ukrainian” articles (some, what appears, to be propaganda with no sources indicated) and “anti-Russian” stuff. It appears, they are also asking their readers or subscribers for coordinates of various military equipment when spotted in Crimea and elsewhere. Frankly, I wouldn’t be surprised if it was ran by a UA government or some organization with ties to the UA government. However, I also saw this post with a couple of pics from today: supposedly near Yevpatoria they are building defences as well. So basically on the shore of Black Sea, facing west.

 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
Was going to add, but forgot. I scroll through a few (sometimes just a couple) Russian media outlets daily. Today was the first time I have seen a mention of the Kinzhal being shot down. I saw it here:


In a nutshell, they are, of course, denying that this happened.

I don’t scroll RIA and the like, so it may have been mentioned previously elsewhere, but this is the first time I saw it in, what you would call, Russian mass media. I was wondering when and if there will be any statement at all. Note that the statement is not official but rather according to some sources at the Russian MoD.

Anyway, I thought it was interesting.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Was going to add, but forgot. I scroll through a few (sometimes just a couple) Russian media outlets daily. Today was the first time I have seen a mention of the Kinzhal being shot down. I saw it here:


In a nutshell, they are, of course, denying that this happened.

I don’t scroll RIA and the like, so it may have been mentioned previously elsewhere, but this is the first time I saw it in, what you would call, Russian mass media. I was wondering when and if there will be any statement at all. Note that the statement is not official but rather according to some sources at the Russian MoD.

Anyway, I thought it was interesting.
What do you expect? Of course they are going to deny it. They'll twist the facts and outright lie about it.
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
^ I expected they would deny it, but was wondering when and how. That’s about it. For my personal, call it, curiosity, the fact that I have not seen mentions about it in any way at all until earlier today was also interesting. To me, that is. And I am still wondering if (rather when) the MoD will make any kind of statement in this regard and what it will be.
 

Redshift

Active Member
Putin already say in May Parade that Russia facing new war.


They are building defense in Moscow, they are building defense in sea of Japan, so they are naturally beef up defense in Crimea. Rather then Russia preparing set back, it is also likely sign Russia going on preparation for all out war.

Thus potentially they go nuclear if cornered should not going to be said as bluff anymore. Cornered nation will preparing to use everything they got. Putin now preparing his nation for war against NATO.
Do you actually believe what you have just written?

The rhetoric of Russia being "cornered" is nonsense, no NATO troops will step foot on Russian territory , no-one in Europe or the USA has any desire or intention to invade Russia.

The idea, often repeated, that NATO or the EU is a threat to Russia (militarily) is a nonsense.

There is a political threat from both, as it should come as no surprise that former Warsaw Pact countries who were invaded more than once by Russia during the cold war when their people tried to break away and love in freedom are very keen in finding protection. The Russian response to this should be through trade and mutual cooperation , but Putin prefers to have puppet vassal states around him and not genuine partners and friends.

I repeat, no-one in Europe or the USA, neither the public nor the politicians wants any sort of war with Russia.

Please stop listening to Putin's rhetoric and please stop taking it as fact and proof intent of NATO, the EU or the USA.

The notion that Russia needs to build up defences against Japan is even more ridiculous.
 
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