The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

seaspear · May 7, 2023

It can that many nations not just "The West" become optimistic with a change of leadership ,Did the death of Stalin result in a change to Russia's style of personality leadership ,to a degree but did not change engagement with the West so much . The loss of Idi Amin to Uganda did though certainly Gaddafi of Libya .
Did Russia become optimistic with the election of Donald Trump certainly the Russian media did ,It has been shown that Russia was involved in influencing the American election by various methods
We could go onto the 1993 Russian constitutional crisis and Boris Yeltsin
Moscow coup 1991: With Boris Yeltsin on the tank - BBC News

Ananda · May 7, 2023

For all the nations that falling apart after their Dictator or Authorarian regime falls, always one thing in comment, fracture military. When their military generals/leadership territorial commands fracture following each territorial ambitions, then the Nation will fall apart.

That's not happen with Turkey, Pakistan or Indonesian Military. Their military as institutions keep solid toward national integrity. I read Turkish/Turkiye media and online analysts that shown historically their military told the civilian political factions to never goes against National integrity. Same thing happen toward Indonesia when Soeharto fall, TNI basically told the politicians they will crush any political movement that endangered national integrity.

Down side on solid military institutions is when they're becoming a junta. This is what we can see in Myanmar, where even almost all civilians factions against them, it is practically not going to change much so far.

Thus back to Russia, anyone can say whatever on Russian Military readiness nowadays. However nothing so far that shown they have fracture solidness. Red Army might be fracture toward each Republics line, in the fall of USSR. Still even that, they are solid more or less on their each Republic. Like it or not solid military institutions is the best guarantee for national integrity.

seaspear · May 7, 2023

Its tempting to go into discussion on some of the other countries you mention but we would be going off thread into historical events , its easy to speculate on political outcomes for Russia or Ukraine leadership with heavy military losses ,but I have not viewed any discontent from other political parties in these countries that would suggest a change in direction ,certainly Russia has very harsh laws punishing its citizens who dispute or challenge this narrative which is usual with an authoritarian regime

ngatimozart · May 7, 2023

Ananda said:
Western analysts have tendencies to think that any nation's that control by authoritarian regimes will collapse to chaos and disintegration once the regime or the dictator being push away or dies. Yes it's shown in several nations including Yugoslavia. However in my opinion it also depends on how solid their military institutions are.

There're already several nations that move from more regime to regime and still intact due to their more or less solid military institutions. From Turkey, Pakistan and Indonesia as examples. I remember by the time Soeharto push away, practically most western think tanks quite sure Indonesia will turn to chaos and disintegrate like Yugoslavia did. However they are underestimating TNI as institutions. Solid military is one of main factor that keep those countries from chaos and disintegration from regime to regime.

Russian Military perhaps not as solid as Red Army or PLA, but so far as institutions shown quite solid ones. Perhaps the scenario that more militant and nationalist regime that come out if Putin being push away. This war also can be use as catalyst for more nationalist regime in Russia.

Some western analysts approach the topic from a risk and hazard management POV. I do the same because we have to look at a worse case scenario. If we don't then we are unprepared for it IF it happens. You will also find that there is more than one school of thought in the west. Europeans take a different approach to Americans, who take a different approach to Australians, and NZ has a different approach as well. We might agree on some things but not all.

There is a long history of nations collapsing into chaos and disorder after the ruling class is displaced. Russia in 1917 after being defeated on the battlefield by Germany. China from 1911 - 1949 after the collapse of the Qing dynasty. Germany in 1919 after being defeated in WW1. Prior to the English civil war during the 17th Century, King Charles I had a strong army, but he was defeated on the battlefield by Cromwell and his colleagues. Charles I literally lost his head because Cromwell had it parted from his shoulders with an axe. Another case is the collapse of the Western Roman Empire.

Suharto's govt was a military dictatorship, not a party political dictatorship like say the PRC or the USSR."Solid military is one of main factor that keep those countries from chaos and disintegration from regime to regime." That I disagree with because any military is a microcosm of its society, so within a military you will have the same debates etc., that occur within their nation's wider society. A military isn't always guaranteed to unilaterally support and incumbent govt. Look at what happened to Ceaușescu of Romania in 1989. He and his wife were executed by their own military. Ceaușescu's security services and secret police didn't save him. The Soviet Russian military didn't prevent the collapse of the USSR. Why do think the CCP spend about twice as much on internal security than they do on the PLA? They watched and learned.

Larry_L · May 7, 2023

In my limited knowledge, I see the Russian military as fragmented and without coordination. The fact that they need as large a PMC as Wagner speaks to this.

It looks like Wagner may be staying in Bakhmut after all. I think it was in February he laid out his dead and ranted about lack of shells. He was then promised ammunition. His recent, profanity laced rant can be looked at in many different ways. I, for one, am not sure what or who prompted him such an exhibition. If taken at face value it appears to have worked. He reportedly has received assurance of "everything he needs" to stay and fight, with General Sergei Surovikin to supervise his needs.

PMC "Wagner" promised to donate ammunition to continue hostilities

The Russian Ministry of Defense promised to supply Wagner PMC with the necessary amount of ammunition. "Tonight we received a combat order for the first | The Eastern Herald

www.easternherald.com

Prigozhin: Russia’s Defence Ministry promises to provide PMC Wagner with ammunition — Novaya Gazeta Europe

Russia’s Defence Ministry has promised to supply Wagner fighters with ammunition, founder of PMC Wagner Yevgeny Prigozhin says , as per Telegram channel Prigozhin’s press service.

novayagazeta.eu

Bot Verification

Ananda · May 7, 2023

ngatimozart said:
military isn't always guaranteed to unilaterally support and incumbent govt.

You are seems miss understand what I mean with National Integrity. National Integrity is not the same with regime integrity. Romanian military turn against their dictactor. However their as institutions keep solid for one Romania. That's not what happen with say Yugoslavia military. They're fragmanted loyalty toward individual states/region. This then create civil war, and disintegrate Yugoslavia as a nation.

Yes military just part of society, however big influences on national integrity. This may not matter for West especially those from nation with long history of military under civilian control, or those with military as part of conscripts. However for those under authoritarian regime, changes in politics turmoil, is matter if the military as institutions keep solid.

Russia after revolution, China after Qing collapse, all come to civil war because the Imperial Military fragmented under several military commands and structures. Red Army vs White Army, China Warlords agains other Warlords, with each control their own teritorial commands. All this shown fragmanted military is the recipe for turmoil, civil war, and national identity disintegration.

Solid military is the main factor for national integrity (not regime integrity), especially for those nation that just changes from one authoritarian regimes to other regimes or political squabble. That's what many western analysts seems miss. They are sometimes underestimate military solidness as institutions on several nations that changes from one regime to another. I put example of Turkey, Pakistan and Indonesia as those are nations that changes from one regime to another. However keep as one nation with big influence of solid military as national identity guarantors.

So back to Russia after Putin, if Russian Military is solid as institutions, then Russia will not come to turmoil and disintegrate, even when their dictactor gone.

T.C.P · May 7, 2023

Recently there has been a nother big lancet dump, with the usual hits- M777s, SPGs, etc.

I am just going to post some of the SHORAD hits-

Stormer-

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/13anarg
Avenger

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/13akaar
Strela-

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/139jrrb
OSA-

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/139tiuf

The usage of lancets for SEAD/DEAD continues, since Russia dumps videos of lancets in clumps, we dont have the exact dates of the strikes, but all seem to be from around the last 2 months ish.

Also in other news, it appear Prio has called Shoigu's buff

Yevgeny Prigozhin: Wagner boss 'promised ammunition' after retreat threat

Yevgeny Prigozhin seemingly U-turns on his threat to withdraw from the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut.

www.bbc.com

Wagner is getting their ammo, but UA sources dispute Piro's claim of only 2000 shells a day to begin with and say that Wagner are reinforcing Bakhmut and not withdrawing-

Ukraine says no sign of Russia’s Wagner force Bakhmut withdrawal

Ukraine military officials say Wagner fighters are being sent to Bakhmut to reinforce their positions, not withdraw.

www.aljazeera.com

Feanor · May 8, 2023

Update. Mar. 22nd-24th

Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa.

Russia hit an M777 and its tow truck in Tyaginka village, Kherson region.

Рыбарь

Уничтожение гаубицы ВСУ в Тягинке В районе села Тягинка на правом берегу Днепра ВС РФ уничтожили гаубицу М777. На записи с разведывательного БЛА видно попадание снарядов в само орудие американского производства, а также в тягач. Координаты: 46.800401, 33.043478 Рядом с пораженными позициями...

t.me

The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Well-Known Member

The Bunker Group

Well-Known Member

Super Moderator

Active Member

The Bunker Group

Well-Known Member

Super Moderator

Super Moderator

Super Moderator

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

The Bunker Group

Super Moderator

Super Moderator

Well-Known Member