The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[KipPotapych]

^ Yes, the two at the north were train derailments due to the planted explosives on tracks. I don’t recall the number of derailed cars in the first incident (I think 7?), but the second showed about 20 cars derailed. The traffic was resumed the next day after the first derailment. No idea what happened with the second. I am sure Feanor read about it all more than we did though, haha.

I believe there was another incident near Kursk, Russia where another drone hit the oil or fuel storage facility… Thinking now, it was shot down and the wreckage caused a fire next to the tanks and was quickly put out. But the intent to hit another one was there.

Russians hit a few fuel depots in Ukraine as well in the past few days. One was in Kherson, that I remember with certainty. But can't recall where the other ones were. Quite a few significant Russian strikes on other facilities in the past few days as well.

The south makes perfect sense, they're going to push in Zaporozhye with quite likely a cross-Dnepr strike in Kherson. The north is more interesting and stranger.

So you think they will be crossing Dnepr en mass? I can’t imagine how that is going to work, but I guess this would a part of it. But I really do not see how they can succeed doing that.


On a side note, they shot down their own drone (Bayraktar TB2) earlier today over Kiev. The videos also showed the AD unit that took care of it was set up on the roof of what looked like an apartment building. Interestingly though, I now cannot find any reference to it at any of the sources that I consider to be reliable, lol. I read about it at Kiev Independent (don’t find it reliable, but do read it) and a few others. If you do a google search, the hash still shows that it was talked about in the article:

All that is gone now though and they only talk about the Russian drone attack. This is the article: Ukraine downs 18 drones on May 4 Same thing with every other, I’d call it western, media outlet I saw it mentioned at.

Here are the videos I was referring to at a Russian Telegram channel: Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

What’s also interesting and quite ”fascinating” is that you can hear all this shooting (in the second video especially clearly) and most or at the very least some of it is probably coming from dudes just like the one in the first video casually shooting a rifle from his balcony trying to hit the drone. That’s pure insanity on so many levels.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

^ Yes, the two at the north were train derailments due to the planted explosives on tracks. I don’t recall the number of derailed cars in the first incident (I think 7?), but the second showed about 20 cars derailed. The traffic was resumed the next day after the first derailment. No idea what happened with the second. I am sure Feanor read about it all more than we did though, haha.

I believe there was another incident near Kursk, Russia where another drone hit the oil or fuel storage facility… Thinking now, it was shot down and the wreckage caused a fire next to the tanks and was quickly put out. But the intent to hit another one was there.

Russians hit a few fuel depots in Ukraine as well in the past few days. One was in Kherson, that I remember with certainty. But can't recall where the other ones were. Quite a few significant Russian strikes on other facilities in the past few days as well.


So you think they will be crossing Dnepr en mass? I can’t imagine how that is going to work, but I guess this would a part of it. But I really do not see how they can succeed doing that.


On a side note, they shot down their own drone (Bayraktar TB2) earlier today over Kiev. The videos also showed the AD unit that took care of it was set up on the roof of what looked like an apartment building. Interestingly though, I now cannot find any reference to it at any of the sources that I consider to be reliable, lol. I read about it at Kiev Independent (don’t find it reliable, but do read it) and a few others. If you do a google search, the hash still shows that it was talked about in the article:

All that is gone now though and they only talk about the Russian drone attack. This is the article: Ukraine downs 18 drones on May 4 Same thing with every other, I’d call it western, media outlet I saw it mentioned at.

Here are the videos I was referring to at a Russian Telegram channel: Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

What’s also interesting and quite ”fascinating” is that you can hear all this shooting (in the second video especially clearly) and most or at the very least some of it is probably coming from dudes just like the one in the first video casually shooting a rifle from his balcony trying to hit the drone. That’s pure insanity on so many levels.

^ Yes, the two at the north were train derailments due to the planted explosives on tracks. I don’t recall the number of derailed cars in the first incident (I think 7?), but the second showed about 20 cars derailed. The traffic was resumed the next day after the first derailment. No idea what happened with the second. I am sure Feanor read about it all more than we did though, haha.

I believe there was another incident near Kursk, Russia where another drone hit the oil or fuel storage facility… Thinking now, it was shot down and the wreckage caused a fire next to the tanks and was quickly put out. But the intent to hit another one was there.

Russians hit a few fuel depots in Ukraine as well in the past few days. One was in Kherson, that I remember with certainty. But can't recall where the other ones were. Quite a few significant Russian strikes on other facilities in the past few days as well.


So you think they will be crossing Dnepr en mass? I can’t imagine how that is going to work, but I guess this would a part of it. But I really do not see how they can succeed doing that.


On a side note, they shot down their own drone (Bayraktar TB2) earlier today over Kiev. The videos also showed the AD unit that took care of it was set up on the roof of what looked like an apartment building. Interestingly though, I now cannot find any reference to it at any of the sources that I consider to be reliable, lol. I read about it at Kiev Independent (don’t find it reliable, but do read it) and a few others. If you do a google search, the hash still shows that it was talked about in the article:

All that is gone now though and they only talk about the Russian drone attack. This is the article: Ukraine downs 18 drones on May 4 Same thing with every other, I’d call it western, media outlet I saw it mentioned at.

Here are the videos I was referring to at a Russian Telegram channel: Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

What’s also interesting and quite ”fascinating” is that you can hear all this shooting (in the second video especially clearly) and most or at the very least some of it is probably coming from dudes just like the one in the first video casually shooting a rifle from his balcony trying to hit the drone. That’s pure insanity on so many levels.

Ah, i think this article is also about the same friendly fire case.

Ukraine shoots down own drone over central Kyiv

The air force says the drone went out of control and was destroyed to avoid "undesirable circumstances".

www.bbc.com

 

[Feanor]

The north attacks were on rail lines and there are pictures of tanker trucks that were derailed from the blast. This was from various posts on the Project Owl Discord channel.

Oh I'm aware. There is no question that they happened. The question is, how do they fit into the overall scheme.

 

[Feanor]

^ Yes, the two at the north were train derailments due to the planted explosives on tracks. I don’t recall the number of derailed cars in the first incident (I think 7?), but the second showed about 20 cars derailed. The traffic was resumed the next day after the first derailment. No idea what happened with the second. I am sure Feanor read about it all more than we did though, haha.

I believe there was another incident near Kursk, Russia where another drone hit the oil or fuel storage facility… Thinking now, it was shot down and the wreckage caused a fire next to the tanks and was quickly put out. But the intent to hit another one was there.

The main question isn't what, it's why.

Russians hit a few fuel depots in Ukraine as well in the past few days. One was in Kherson, that I remember with certainty. But can't recall where the other ones were. Quite a few significant Russian strikes on other facilities in the past few days as well.

Russia has carried out series of strikes some of which plausibly complicate Ukraine's offensive efforts. Some though are a little stranger-looking. Ukraine is about to land a blow, one in Zaporozhye, one somewhere out of the Seversk salient area likely south-ward towards Soledar and Artemovsk/Bakhmut. The question is, what does Russia have available to counter that with?

So you think they will be crossing Dnepr en mass? I can’t imagine how that is going to work, but I guess this would a part of it. But I really do not see how they can succeed doing that.

Define en-masse. Russia's ISR and strike assets are limited. If you can divert some to defend the Dnepr, that's valuable. If you don't divert them and consequently secure a foothold on the left coast of the Dnepr, that's also valuable. Ukraine has been conducting raids and establishing footholds on the islands. This is also an area where Russia is deploying second-line formations, as clearly visible by the T-62Ms mod'22s here. Ukraine can force a landing somewhere and cause quite a ruckus. Russia can counter it or not counter it. Either versions works out for Ukraine when paired with a major offensive in Zaporozhye. Now if the offensive in Zaporozhye is a trainwreck, then the landing won't matter much. But if it's anything other then a trainwreck, it helps.

 

[Feanor]

The Ukrainian capital city of Kyiv has recently made headlines after a Russian surveillance drone was shot down in the area. The incident has caused a stir in the international community, with tensions between Ukraine and Russia already at a boiling point.

As the world watches and waits to see what will happen next, let's take a closer look at what led up to this event and what it could mean for the future.

Background of the Conflict

The conflict between Ukraine and Russia dates back several years. It began in 2014 when Ukraine's pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych was ousted from power in a popular uprising. Russia responded by annexing Crimea, a Ukrainian territory, and supporting separatist rebels in the eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk.

Since then, the conflict has simmered, with sporadic violence breaking out in the disputed regions. The Ukrainian government has accused Russia of arming and supporting the separatist rebels, while Russia has denied any involvement.

The Downed Drone Incident

On April 19, 2023, a Russian surveillance drone was shot down over Kyiv. The drone was reportedly flying over the city when it was targeted by Ukrainian forces. The Russian government has condemned the incident, calling it a violation of international law and demanding an investigation.

The Ukrainian government, for its part, has defended the shooting as a necessary measure to protect its sovereignty. They claim that the drone was flying in Ukrainian airspace and posed a threat to national security.

Impact of the Incident

The downing of the drone has further escalated tensions between Ukraine and Russia. Both sides have issued strongly worded statements, with Russia threatening to take "appropriate measures" and Ukraine vowing to defend itself against any aggression.

The incident has also drawn international attention, with many countries calling for restraint and a peaceful resolution to the conflict. The United States and European Union have both condemned the shooting, while Russia's allies, such as China and Belarus, have expressed support for Moscow.

What's Next?

It's difficult to predict what will happen next in this conflict. The downing of the drone could be a signal that Ukraine is willing to take a more aggressive stance against Russian aggression. It could also be a provocation that leads to further escalation and violence.

One thing is clear, however: the situation in Ukraine remains volatile, and the international community will need to work together to find a peaceful solution. The downing of the drone is just one event in a long-running conflict, and it will take more than just military action to resolve the underlying issues.

Conclusion

The downing of the Russian surveillance drone over Kyiv has added another chapter to the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia. While it's unclear what the future holds, one thing is certain: tensions are high, and the stakes are even higher.

It's important for all parties involved to work towards a peaceful resolution to this conflict. The world is watching, and the consequences of a full-blown war between Ukraine and Russia would be catastrophic. We can only hope that cooler heads will prevail and that a path to peace can be found.

Yes. "Russian". I mean Ukraine says they shot down one of their own malfunctioning Bayraktar TB2s, but no need to pay attention to that.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Colonelcassad

‼️Взрывы и пожар в Соломенском районе Киеве: вероятно попадание обломков БПЛА, — Кличко Над городом сбит непознанный дрон - крыло. "Все службы направляются на место, детали позже",— сообщил мэр Киева. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Colonelcassad

А вот и кадры сбитого над майданом в Киеве БПЛА. Похож на Байрактар.

t.me

 

[ngatimozart]

The Russians are now blaming the US for the UAV attack on the Kremlin. Ukraine war: US denies masterminding Moscow drone attack IF it was the US then the whole Kremlin would be levelled. The Americans aren't going to use half arsed measures when it comes to attacking hostile targets.

IF it was a Russian false flag OP then what have they to gain from it? According to the video above Russian media have been very quiet on it, so if Putin was trying to use the attack to push up public support for the war, why isn't the Russian media trumpeting about the perfidious and evil Ukrainian / NATO / US / western attack on the Kremlin?

This is a Ukrainian video even though the presenter speaks with an Aussie accent. He analyses the video of the attack and points to two people climbing the Kremlin roof in firefighting gear just as the UAV explodes. It's a possibility but the question is why? Who has the most to gain from this action? The Ukrainians, not really because it has the massive potential to backfire on them.

If they succeeded in assassinating Putin, they lose one of their better generals and create problems for themselves, because someone more cunning, evil, and capable will take over. Putin appears to be micromanaging the war and that's why I compare him to Hitler; both think that know far more than their generals - the Napoleon and short men complexes. If Putin is eliminated, by whatever means, it's just like chopping the head off a hydra, because a hydra has many heads. Secondly the argument that an attack like this forces the Russians to remove air defence assets back home from Ukraine doesn't stack up either. The Ukrainians are already doing this with UAV attacks on Russian airfields and logistics infrastructure within Russia.

An FSB OP? If the FSB wants to remove Putin, then there are better and less conspicuous ways of doing it. He could expire due to a previously undiagnosed illness, be defenestrated, have a motor vehicle accident etc. They have their ways and means and aren't afraid to use them. What would the FSB gain from knocking off Putin? He's one of them, gives them carte blanche, and controls their funding. There's no guarantee that Putin's successor would provide the same support.

A military OP? That's possible but what would be in it for the military besides power? Nt only would they have to get rid of Putin, but everyone of his political leadership and main supporters. They would also have to keep such a plot well hidden from the FSB and there's no guarantee that FSB operatives / informers would be amongst the plotters. That doesn't bode well for the plotters longevity.

A Prigozhin OP? Does he have the ambition, wherewithal, and ability to mount such an OP? He certainly does but such an OP is quite risky, especially to him personally, and he has similar OPSEC problems to the military. It's to his advantage to leave Putin in charge because he's making money with the status quo.

There could be a dissent group within Russia who have the wherewithal and capability to mount such an attack. IF such a group did, what are their motives? Was it a political statement? Who knows.

We just don't have enough information upon which to base a reasonable hypothesis on.

 

[ngatimozart]

BREAKING NEWS

To use the Aussie vernacular, Prigozhin has gone and spat the dummy (baby pacifier) as well as chucking all his toys out of the cot. In a video rant full of insults aimed at the Russian MOD, he's pulling Wagner out of Bakhmut on 10th May and retiring, probably back to Russia until the Russian people need Wagner again. His beef is with the military and Minister of Defence Shoigu, and he's informing Supreme Commander Putin of his decision.

In this DW item their Russian expert mentions a very hawkish Russian MP who posted that in 1917 when the military lost the war, a revolution ensued. According to the DW expert the situation within Russia is now dangerous, but they are not near the point of revolution yet. t the time of broadcast, the Ukrainian govt hasn't made any official comment.

The Times video provides a censored translation (they took all the insults out) of Prigozhin's rant.

Times are now interesting and if the Russian military aren't able to hold Bakhmut then a way into the Russian rear could open for the Ukrainians. However I think that the Ukrainians will have a harder time against the Russian military because it doesn't tend to go for human wave attacks like Wagner have done. The Ukrainians won't be able to kill as many Russian military as they have with the Wagner human wave attacks. If Prigozhin goes through with his withdrawal, I don't think that the Russian military will be able to gain any further ground in Bakhmut and they might have trouble consolidating and defend their current positions within the city. Time will tell.

 

[John Fedup]

BREAKING NEWS

To use the Aussie vernacular, Prigozhin has gone and spat the dummy (baby pacifier) as well as chucking all his toys out of the cot. In a video rant full of insults aimed at the Russian MOD, he's pulling Wagner out of Bakhmut on 10th May and retiring, probably back to Russia until the Russian people need Wagner again. His beef is with the military and Minister of Defence Shoigu, and he's informing Supreme Commander Putin of his decision.

In this DW item their Russian expert mentions a very hawkish Russian MP who posted that in 1917 when the military lost the war, a revolution ensued. According to the DW expert the situation within Russia is now dangerous, but they are not near the point of revolution yet. t the time of broadcast, the Ukrainian govt hasn't made any official comment.

The Times video provides a censored translation (they took all the insults out) of Prigozhin's rant.

Times are now interesting and if the Russian military aren't able to hold Bakhmut then a way into the Russian rear could open for the Ukrainians. However I think that the Ukrainians will have a harder time against the Russian military because it doesn't tend to go for human wave attacks like Wagner have done. The Ukrainians won't be able to kill as many Russian military as they have with the Wagner human wave attacks. If Prigozhin goes through with his withdrawal, I don't think that the Russian military will be able to gain any further ground in Bakhmut and they might have trouble consolidating and defend their current positions within the city. Time will tell.

Can’t believe Putin will be happy having this pita anywhere near him, especially if he has his troops close by. Who knows, maybe it is fake news to lure the Ukrainians into a trap of some sort. As you say, time will tell.

 

[vikingatespam]

[warning, corpses]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1654268174018260992

In this twitter thread which contains Prigozhin's unedited rant, you can see what he claims is a field with 40-50 RU KIA - supposedly just from 1 day of combat. If this, this is an awful level of attrition for the RU.

Prigozhin is asking for a bad case of window cancer.

 

[Stampede]

BREAKING NEWS

To use the Aussie vernacular, Prigozhin has gone and spat the dummy (baby pacifier) as well as chucking all his toys out of the cot. In a video rant full of insults aimed at the Russian MOD, he's pulling Wagner out of Bakhmut on 10th May and retiring, probably back to Russia until the Russian people need Wagner again. His beef is with the military and Minister of Defence Shoigu, and he's informing Supreme Commander Putin of his decision.

In this DW item their Russian expert mentions a very hawkish Russian MP who posted that in 1917 when the military lost the war, a revolution ensued. According to the DW expert the situation within Russia is now dangerous, but they are not near the point of revolution yet. t the time of broadcast, the Ukrainian govt hasn't made any official comment.

The Times video provides a censored translation (they took all the insults out) of Prigozhin's rant.

Times are now interesting and if the Russian military aren't able to hold Bakhmut then a way into the Russian rear could open for the Ukrainians. However I think that the Ukrainians will have a harder time against the Russian military because it doesn't tend to go for human wave attacks like Wagner have done. The Ukrainians won't be able to kill as many Russian military as they have with the Wagner human wave attacks. If Prigozhin goes through with his withdrawal, I don't think that the Russian military will be able to gain any further ground in Bakhmut and they might have trouble consolidating and defend their current positions within the city. Time will tell.

Gosh
Hard to know what to make of it all.
If the second video is legitimate and not a staged rank, then the Russian military effort have a significant problem.
As questionable as the Wagner group is on many levels, they have paid the blood price on the battlefield and achieved some success.
How does the Russian Army fill this gap and what happens next to the thousand of troops under Wagner control should they be bye passed / disbanded.
Do Wagner have drones that can reach Moscow????
All a bit of a mystery.

Cheers C

 

[Ananda]

Prigozhin claim many casualties, but remember in his video he also claim Ukrainian has more casualties. Now Ukrainian also claim Wagner doing human wave tactics, but also claim Bakhmut is Russian meat grinder.

Same claim on opposite side, that Russian says Ukrainian send waves of their reserves for city that being claim by Ukrainian and West before as has little strategic value. So this claim and counter claim is so far nothing new in this war.

Perhaps this is Pregozhin preparation for Ukrainian counter offensive? Perhaps it is his preparation if they have to move back if Ukrainian push back? Who knows as this war already aside attrition war, also already propaganda war.

One thing for sure, if Ukrainian send large counter offensive toward Bakhmut after committed large reserve to defend this, this town has more strategic value then what Western media so far always claim as unimportant strategic value front.

 

[Larry_L]

Gosh
Hard to know what to make of it all.
If the second video is legitimate and not a staged rank, then the Russian military effort have a significant problem.
As questionable as the Wagner group is on many levels, they have paid the blood price on the battlefield and achieved some success.
How does the Russian Army fill this gap and what happens next to the thousand of troops under Wagner control should they be bye passed / disbanded.
Do Wagner have drones that can reach Moscow????
All a bit of a mystery.

Cheers C

Prigozhin is still there. He has previously hinted at withdrawing. I wait to see what will happen. He may soon say that he got his ammunition and stay where he is. The way he talks does not always translate well.

To further complicate the narrative, Kadyrov states that he will replace Wagner in Bakhmut. Where he will get the troops I don't know. Wagner must have at least 20,000 left in the area.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1654552680101031940

Also, Wagner has gained a Deputy Commander at this time. General Mikhail Mizintsev who was sacked from his position in logistics has been hired by Wagner. Some speculate that he may have occasionally supplied them with extra ammo. That could explain this sudden move.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1654212621128675328

On a lighter note, Ukrainian forces state that they are happy to send him some artillery shells.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1654498469023809542

 

[Larry_L]

I keep coming back to Aljazeera occasionally to look at their summery of events. This one covers a lot of ground from attacks on petroleum sites to the false flag attack on the Kremlin flag, to estimated fatality rates. Valery Zaluzhny states that the center of gravity of the Russian forces is their long range precision strike capability. There has been no firm announcement that the western coalition has provided any means of countering this issue. There have been hints, at times, but nothing firm.

Quote: “The enemy is capable of inflicting pinpoint strikes on targets in the entire depth of the country’s territory with impunity. This should be considered as the center of gravity of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation from a military point of view. As long as this situation persists, this war can continue for years,” he wrote in a paper co-authored with Lieutenant-General Mykhailo Zabrodskyi.

Ukraine targets Russian fuel sites ahead of counteroffensive

Attacks intensified, more civilians were killed and Ukraine said its counteroffensive preparations were almost cooked.

www.aljazeera.com

 

[Larry_L]

Ukraine states that the Russian fab 500 bomb is too heavy for the pylon it is attached to on the aircraft. This would explain why they have been dropping them on their own territory. We have all seen reports of the 2 bombs dropped on Belgorod. There is also a report of another bomb that recently fell In the village of Golovchino, the Belgorod region. They recently started manufacturing a glide kit for the 250kg bomb. Unless they develop a workaround for whatever problem that causes these unwanted bomb releases, we may see smaller explosions. It is also possible they may be able to carry more 250kg bombs on each sortie.

Spending Dozens of Glide Bombs a Day, russians Struggle to Deal With Critical Problems of Their Creation | Defense Express

Despite russia facing many issues with their hastily made glide bombs, it intensifies the use of this weapon in Ukraine and gradually gains experience for making new similar devices

en.defence-ua.com

Unexploded FAB-500 aerial bomb found unexploded in Russian village

This is the third incident with the fall of FAB-500 bombs in the region in two weeks

english.pravda.ru

https://en.topwar.ru/216161-s-pomoschju-specialnogo-operenija-i-navigacionnoj-sistemy-v-planirujuschie-aviabomby-rossijskaja-promyshlennost-teper-prevraschaet-i-fab-250.html

 

[ngatimozart]

Prigozhin is asking for a bad case of window cancer.

Prigozhin won't necessarily be defenestrated because he, like Kadyrov, Shoigu, Gerasimov et al., serves a purpose in Putin's political machinations. Putin appears to have studied Comrade Stalin's methodology with Stalin being a great believer in playing his subordinates off against each other. Classic case would be in April 1945 when he used the rivalry between Generals Zhukov and Rossivkokiy in deciding the final plan for the final assault of Berlin. Some of the differences between Putin and Stalin are that Stalin was a very smart political operator, whereas Putin is a wannabe in comparison. Stalin, even though he was a real control freak, was smart enough to let his generals do their thing, although they knew the consequences of failure, whereas Putin's like Hitler, micromanaging the war. Hitler didn't end up having the victory he desperately wanted. Putin's handling of the war so far appears to show that he may end up with a similar failure.

The real problem that has the possibility of occurring, is what happens when Putin dies, or is removed from power. You have the oligarchs:

• Petr Fradkov (CEO of Promsvyazbank, son of Mikhail Fradkov, former Russian Prime Minister during 2004-2007. Mikhail Fradkov is the longest serving director of Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service from 2007 to 2016. Since 4 January 2017, Fradkov has been Director of the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies.)
• Andrey Guryev (the former head of PhosAgro, the world's fourth largest producer of phosphate-based fertilizers)
• Mikhail Gutseriev (former owner of Russneft, one of Russia's largest oil companies)
• Said Gutseriev (Russian-British businessperson, the son of Russian oligarch Mikhail Gutseriev. Since 2018 he has been included by Forbes into the list of wealthiest businessmen in the world. In 2021 his fortune has been estimated at $1.7 billion.
• Katerina Tikhonova (President Putin's second daughter and deputy chair of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs)
• Kirill Shamalov (director and part-owner of Sibur, a Russian petrochemicals company)
• Andrey Valerievich Ryumin (Executive Director of Rosseti PJSC (formerly, until August 2014, known as Russian Grids, Chairman of Board, son-in-law of Viktor Medvedchuk
• Andrey Patrushev (son of the Secretary of the Security Council of Russia Nikolai Patrushev. Nikolai Patrushev served as the director of the Federal Security Service (FSB) from 1999 to 2008. Belonging to the siloviki faction of president Vladimir Putin's inner circle,[70] Patrushev is believed to be one of the closest advisors to Putin and a leading figure behind Russia's national security affairs. Patrushev is seen by some observers as one of the likeliest candidates for succeeding Putin.)
• Sergei Sergeevich Ivanov (Board member of Gazprombank and president of Alrosa diamond mining; son of Sergei Ivanov, Minister of Defense of Russia from March 2001 to February 2007
• Yury Slyusar (director of United Aircraft Corporation and board member of Aeroflot, Russian Airlines Pjsc and United Aircraft)
• Alexander Vinokurov (Owner of the privately held investment company Marathon Group (Russian company) and largest shareholder of retailer Magnit.

Source: Russian oligarchs - Wikipedia​

All have considerable interest in their continued survival, avoiding the gulags or the executioner. Add to them the likes of Nikolai Patrushev, Kadyrov, and Shoigu, it is possible that the Russian Federation will become an internal battleground possible similar to China during the 1920s and 30s with warlords controlling various provinces / fiefdoms. The next question is what would the military do? Would they follow Shoigu's banner or leave him to rot and rally around a bona fide general such as Gerasimov?

If the Russian Federation does turn in on itself, that will take considerable pressure off Ukraine and could lead to Ukraine recovering all of its lost territory including Crimea. However Ukraine then would have to stand ready for decades because once Russia recovered from its turmoil, it would look west, coveting Ukraine again.

 

[King Wally]

Prigozhin is asking for a bad case of window cancer.

I feel like Prigozhin may have actually done this with Putins blessing. I think Putin know's the war is going badly and may be about to get worse so having someone respected like Prigozhin point the blame squarely at top Military leadership gives a convenient fall guy for Putin to also blame when things start to fall apart.

Likewise from a self serving point of view Prigozhin likely smells that the days of positive territorial progress on the battlefield are numbered and doesn't want to be the guy left holding the wheel when it all falls apart is more than happy to get out of the way ASAP.

 

[Feanor]

I feel like Prigozhin may have actually done this with Putins blessing. I think Putin know's the war is going badly and may be about to get worse so having someone respected like Prigozhin point the blame squarely at top Military leadership gives a convenient fall guy for Putin to also blame when things start to fall apart.

Likewise from a self serving point of view Prigozhin likely smells that the days of positive territorial progress on the battlefield are numbered and doesn't want to be the guy left holding the wheel when it all falls apart is more than happy to get out of the way ASAP.

There could even be an intent to put the relatively well trained Wagner infantry out of harms way for when the offensive lands, and instead act as a counter-attack element or a reserve to throw into the most dangerous area.

 

[seaspear]

There has been a claim of a Khinzal hypersonic missile shot down by the Patriot system , this is the first time a hypersonic missile has been claimed to have been shot down and previously many articles suggested they could not be

 

[2007yellow430]

There has been a claim of a Khinzal hypersonic missile shot down by the Patriot system , this is the first time a hypersonic missile has been claimed to have been shot down and previously many articles suggested they could not be

New York Times confirms this, and provides additional facts to support the claim:

Ukraine Claims It Shot Down Russia’s Most Sophisticated Missile for First Time (Published 2023)

The air force said it intercepted the hypersonic missile with a newly delivered U.S.-made Patriot air-defense battery. U.S. officials confirmed the strike.

www.nytimes.com

Art

 

[Ananda]

real problem that has the possibility of occurring, is what happens when Putin dies, or is removed from power.

Western analysts have tendencies to think that any nation's that control by authoritarian regimes will collapse to chaos and disintegration once the regime or the dictator being push away or dies. Yes it's shown in several nations including Yugoslavia. However in my opinion it also depends on how solid their military institutions are.

There're already several nations that move from more regime to regime and still intact due to their more or less solid military institutions. From Turkey, Pakistan and Indonesia as examples. I remember by the time Soeharto push away, practically most western think tanks quite sure Indonesia will turn to chaos and disintegrate like Yugoslavia did. However they are underestimating TNI as institutions. Solid military is one of main factor that keep those countries from chaos and disintegration from regime to regime.

Russian Military perhaps not as solid as Red Army or PLA, but so far as institutions shown quite solid ones. Perhaps the scenario that more militant and nationalist regime that come out if Putin being push away. This war also can be use as catalyst for more nationalist regime in Russia.