The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Feanor · Feb 20, 2023

Vivendi said:
No doubt there is a lot of work to be done. On the other hand it's not nearly as bad as Russian propaganda keeps claiming.
DW fact-checked some persistent myths:

Is there any truth to Russia's 'Ukrainian Nazis' propaganda? – DW – 12/03/2022

Russian propagandists are constantly saying Ukraine is full of Nazis, and posting alleged evidence online. DW's fact-checking team has investigated some of this supposed evidence.

www.dw.com

USA today fact checked a story about a man pictured with Swastika and concluded he was Russian not Ukrainian: Fact check: Images show Russian citizen with swastika tattoo, not Ukrainian soldier

Unpacked story about this topic: Does Ukraine really have a ‘Nazi problem?' - Unpacked
referring to American Jewish Committee’s report which says that Jews in Ukraine in general do not face acts of violence or public condemnations of Israel. In 2018, the Pew Research Center found Ukraine to be the most accepting of Jews among all Central and Eastern European countries.

It is also difficult to understand that a country with a huge Nazi problem can have a Jewish president and Jewish (ex)-PM.

Right wing extremism takes many forms. Jews may or may not be targets. And of course with a much bigger threat in the form of Russia, it's entirely logical that anti-semitism takes a back seat. I've explained this several times, but I'll do it again. Ukraine's problem with right wing extremism is not that there are many of them. There aren't. They can't win elections. It's that they've been allowed into force-wielding structures in disproportionate numbers, and the ideas they hold are not discouraged or kept in check.

Referring to Russian propaganda is pointless in this discussion. The word propaganda is a dead giveaway.

On the other hand, it's clear that Ukraine is not a liberal democracy as we have in most "Western" countries. But I am confident that the illegal unprovoked invasion by Russia will act as a catalyst and accelerate change in Ukraine. Ukraine has seen the ugly face of Russian imperialism, and the only option they have is to fully embrace the liberal democracy and fight corruption. A large majority of Ukranians now support both EU and NATO membership, and they are ready for change. They just have a war to win first.

This really is the best hope for Ukraine. Pre-war the reforms that Poroshenko initially started were basically dead in the water. This war could serve as the catalyst for real reforms. But the resistance of Ukraine's corrupt elites would have to be overcome. And that's the context in which Ukraine will have to deal with the right wing extremists in their armed forces.

seaspear · Feb 20, 2023

A variation of the Bradley has been proposed as a "Quarterback" coordinating and directing fire from different sources as a force multiplier, if it is employed on line of sight it may have to be situated geographically on terrain that allows this advantage or it may be difficult to use
Ukraine To Get Bradley M7 Vehicles To Act As Artillery Quarterbacks (thedrive.com)

Feanor · Feb 20, 2023

We have unconfirmed reports of Wagner forces wrapping around Artemovsk/Bakhmut from the north. Initially Russian troops pushed on the south through Klescheevka with the intent of cutting off Artemovsk/Bakhmut from the east first at Ivanovskoe/Krasnoe, then at Stupochki, ultimately with the goal of advancing into Chasov Yar. These attempts have failed and there have been two Ukrainian counter-attacks that pushed Russian forces back from the road, though neither counter-attack managed to contest Klescheevka. The solution seems to be to wrap around from the north, this made by possible by the eventual fall of Krasnaya Gora and now Praskovievka. These are confirmed. Russian forces are now pushing onward, and there are reports Yagodnoe has fallen too though Verkhovka remains in Ukrainian hands. The northern and north-western roads out are definitely cut but the route through Khromovoe is almost certainly open, and the one through Chasov Yar. There is still a significant Ukrainian garrison inside the town and if Russia moves fast enough, they could be trapped in the city. The last reports I saw had Ukrainian reinforcements and supplies heading into the town but they're Russian-sourced so reliability is unclear. Unless something drastically changes, the fall or Artemovsk/Bakhmut is a question of when, not if, and a question of whether any significant Ukrainian forces end up encircled or not.

"Вагнер" продолжает исполнять оперу-эпос

Идет прорыв на севере Артемьевска, причем по схеме, отработанной на Грасной Горе и Параскеевке - ламоть Верховка отрезается от главных сил ударом слева, а потом дожимается ударом справа до бегства робких хихлов: Одновременно идет прорыв по центру Артемьевска: Говорят, теперь…

afirsov.livejournal.com

Вагнеровцы освободили Ягодное

То-то вчера говорили, что темпы пошли как в лучшие дни в Соледаре... Линия фронта актуальная пару недель назад - половинку свина уже схомячили

afirsov.livejournal.com

KipPotapych · Feb 21, 2023

I’ll try to make this one shorter.

Feanor said:
Useful enough for what? They're getting value out of their existing Soviet-era jets, and are likely receiving more of those transferred quietly from abroad.

They are getting some value. What I am saying, however, is that if there is only limited benefit to strengthening the Ukraine positions, they are not going to provide the aircrafts. If there is only marginal increase in Ukrainian capabilities, they are not going to provide the aircraft. If there is a high risk of losing the assets, they are not going to provide them. At the moment, and likely for the foreseeable future, it appears that all these boxes are ticked. Hence, there will be no western or “NATO-standard” fighter jets provided any time soon. I am sure they have been “sneaking in” Mig’s and Su’s for a while though.

Feanor said:
They're putting pressure on Russian air defenses, and forcing Russian forces to expend SAMs on engaging them. We also have cases of confirmed destruction of Russian SAMs, perhaps not many but definitely some. The only way to evaluate if they're effective/worth it is with internal Ukrainian information on the sorties and effects they're having. Unfortunately we're not in a position to evaluate this.

Yes, I agree, we are not in that position. Perhaps, though, we are in a position to speculate based on what we see/what has been reported? We can speculate that there isn’t much success in that department simply because it isn’t advertised or talked about at all. By anyone. I’d say this would be a fair assumption simply based on what we see and what is being (not) reported. Is it necessarily the case? Not really, but it seems like very limited success (and less?) is more likely than anything more than that. Readiness and availability of the “first grade” and most experienced pilots for training suggest the same. Again, it is not necessarily the case.

Feanor said:
I honestly don't know. Presumably yes, but for some reason its not a priority. And this during a dedicated SEAD campaign that took place from mid-October.

Maybe it isn’t a priority because they do not see a significant or any threat coming from it at this time? I have no idea, really. Some things/decisions are very… weird and hard to understand. Yet again, all we can do is speculate. This also may suggest that the Ukrainian air force is currently not an issue.

Feanor said:
I daresay they're not in a position to say no. Zelensky called Scholtz a liver sausage. Germany is still donating tanks to Ukraine.

I believe that was Melnyk, or what’s his name, the guy that used to be the top Ukrainian diplomat in Germany, that has since been removed from that position and promoted to the position of Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine. And he was only removed from that position after an interview to a German outlet where he talked about Bandera being a hero and claiming that it was Russian propaganda that the “banderites” murdered en masse both Jews and Poles because he believes it didn’t happen.

You do have a very valid point in your assessment regardless.

Feanor said:
There's a difference between they shouldn't supply them and they can't supply them immediately. I think jets are coming and it's only a matter of when.

Hard to argue with that, but I doubt there will be any aircrafts provided before there is some kind of resolution to this conflict, in one way or another.

Feanor said:
This is not true. Kherson was defended properly and Ukrainian forces took massive casualties in that offensive. In that area geography was very much in play. But also in play was Russia's inability to hunt down and destroy the HIMARS. to this day we have no confirmed cases of the destruction of HIMARS or M270s. It's likely some got hit somewhere, but in a way where BDA footage from the Russian side is not available, and Ukraine has made a practice of quickly hauling off damaged or destroyed vehicles. In reality Russia has serious problems finding targets beyond the range of regular quadcopter operations with Orlans being relatively scarce. The ranges at which HIMARS operates makes it very hard for Russia to do much about them. Of course on the flip side it's not like Ukraine has destroyed many Tornado-S or Iskanders.
I think the question becomes whether western ISR assets can be effective enough to identify Russian supply lines and allow Ukraine to strike them in depth, considering those assets can't operate inside Ukrainian airspace. Longer range munitions are being provided to Ukraine for a reason. Note what happened after the HIMARS first showed up. There was a flurry of strikes against Russian munition dumps. Russia has since pushed bigger munition dumps further back, parallelized and spread out supplies of munitions closer to the front. But this problem could easily repeat itself in the future.
There is almost certainly a spring offensive coming by Ukraine, unless Russia inflicts such losses in current fighting that the reserves Ukraine has been training in the west have to be committed to holding the line. This is partly why some western sources have been advocating a withdrawal from Artemovsk/Bakhmut. If Russia can force Ukraine to expend many of its existing forces in the current attrition battles without having to commit its own reserves of the second 150k mobilized personnel, then when the offensive comes Russia can counter with strategic reserves, and Ukraine may not be able to launch the attack on nearly as large a scale. If Russia takes significant losses themselves, they may choose to commit their own reserves early, a costly mistake in my opinion. If they don't manage to deal enough casualties, it will be a battle of reserves. It's also unclear how many people Ukraine is managing to mobilize now. Based on footage coming out Ukraine is clearly working extra-hard to pull more people. It's possible Ukraine can throw enough bodies into the fight without having to commit the rumored 3 new corps.

That's kind of my point. If significant changes happen it will be due to a Ukrainian breakthrough. If that doesn't happen, it will be more of this.
Ukraine has sent reinforcements to both but unlike Artemovsk/Bakhmut, where Ukrainian forces are reportedly taking severe casualties, and reports are coming out of entire btlns reduced to less then a company of personnel, and entire brigades being chewed up in the fighting, and having to pull out for reforming, at Ugledar the large casualties are on Russia's side. Ukraine has moved reserves there, and the 155th Marines do have a foothold in the town but Russian forces attempting to envelop have failed miserably and lost many killed and many vehicles in the process. There are no similar reports, at least that I have seen, for the Ukrainian side. I suspect Ugledar will still eventually fall. But it isn't a Russian success.

It may have been properly defended except for the fact that one cannot cross one of the largest rivers in Europe, move 50-60 kilometres in, set up the defences and assume all is good. On the satellite images, I counted two bridges (one is a rail) over Dnieper on the stretch of the land the Russians occupied.

Massive casualties on the Ukrainian side and almost casual and very successful Russian retreat, where they took their time, in turn, may indicate the weakness and limited ability of the Ukrainian army to conduct a massive offensive once the limiting factors (in this case, a mighty river) are eliminated. No? Various reports indicate that the Russians are dug in quite well and pretty deep around their current (stable) positions, so it isn’t going to be another Kherson, where supply lines were extremely limited and obvious, or north east, where they were simply overrun due to poor defences and very limited man power. However, I absolutely agree, supply lines, while not as scarce, are still the crucial part of both success and failure.

As for spring offensive, I don’t believe there is one coming, like I already mentioned. It doesn’t make sense simply because much of the promised equipment won’t come until later in the year, mid-summer or later. Tanks they were expecting aren’t going to be there until later and in significantly lower numbers. Training just started a couple/few weeks ago. They do not have the men to try now before they are best equipped and trained later in the year. In other words, they do not get two tries in this in a relatively short period of time, so later (summer-ish?) offensive makes more sense at this time. As long as they can defend what they hold. Though if that isn’t the case, the talk about an offensive is just it, talk.

I agree with the rest.

Feanor · Feb 21, 2023

Update. Jan 20th-21st

Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa.

Russian AGS fires, Kherson region. Note it's unlikely they're firing across the river, more likely the fighting is over islands.

Colonelcassad

Херсонское Направление Сегодняшняя работа по АГС врага. @dontstopwar

t.me

Oskol Front.

Ukrainain CASEVAC near Svatovo-Kremennaya area. Note there has been increased Russian pressure there lately.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

t.me

Russian T-90M operating near Balka Zhuravka.

Старше Эдды

Т-90М Прорыв 3 мсд кошмарят украинскую пехоту в опорниках в районе балки Журавка. Будни войны,фронт Сватово-Кременная.

t.me

Ukrainian troops doing mineclearing with a Slovak Bozena 5.

The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

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