China - Geostrategic & Geopolitical.

[Ananda]

I just speculating in here, that if he is already have enough confidence of his total control, perhaps then he will begin gradual loosen up.

China COVID-19 cases surge to 6-month high as tensions in affected cities build

BEIJING: China on Friday (Nov 4) reported the highest daily count of new local COVID-19 cases in six months as outbreaks widened, pushing policymakers to walk an even finer line between holding the virus at bay while keeping a lid on social and economic angst. New locally transmitted cases rose...

www.channelnewsasia.com

There're signs that China will loosen their COVID approach. However they give some signs before, but decide to keep current practices so far. Whether new signs related to speculations on Xi's assertivenes on his power grip (as my previous post speculate), or simply they can not afford to keep doing this, is open guess.

Personally if they do lossen up their strict anti covid policies, seems combination both factor in play.

 

[Stampede]

China COVID-19 cases surge to 6-month high as tensions in affected cities build

BEIJING: China on Friday (Nov 4) reported the highest daily count of new local COVID-19 cases in six months as outbreaks widened, pushing policymakers to walk an even finer line between holding the virus at bay while keeping a lid on social and economic angst. New locally transmitted cases rose...

www.channelnewsasia.com

There're signs that China will loosen their COVID approach. However they give some signs before, but decide to keep current practices so far. Whether new signs related to speculations on Xi's assertivenes on his power grip (as my previous post speculate), or simply they can not afford to keep doing this, is open guess.

Personally if they do lossen up their strict anti covid policies, seems combination both factor in play.

A Chinese colleague related a story of someone he knew recently traveling to China to visit his original home town.
Arrived in Hong Kong and traveled to City A
Some one had Covid so all on the transport were quarantined.
Once free, traveled from city A to B and same the thing happened.
More quarantine, more time wasted.
Third time unlucky and more quarantine.

Three months later finally gets home to his Town C with little time to spare.
Heads off to current overseas home with luckily no delays.

If you want to travel either within China domestically or visit from overseas what do these story's do to your confidence to under take such an endeavor.
Not good on many levels.


Cheers S

Yes City's - A, B and C have do have names.

 

[Ananda]

you want to travel either within China domestically or visit from overseas what do these story's do to your confidence to under take such an endeavor.

Yes, that's what costing China around 400bp of economics growth annually for the last three years. Xi's faction seems more afraid on run away COVID infection then economics downturn.

However with now his control more firm on CCP political circles, perhaps he is now more assertive to 'risk' higher infection for economics growth benefits. Still all this open to speculations as Xi's practically doing different ways then Hu's or Jiang's.

 

[Rob c]

Yes, that's what costing China around 400bp of economics growth annually for the last three years. Xi's faction seems more afraid on run away COVID infection then economics downturn.

However with now his control more firm on CCP political circles, perhaps he is now more assertive to 'risk' higher infection for economics growth benefits. Still all this open to speculations as Xi's practically doing different ways then Hu's or Jiang's.

I am very much a beginner when it comes to the CCP and China, but my suspicion is that any change could be seen as a loss of "face" or a mistake by the CCP and would simply not be allowed until some mitigating reason is found or happens to allow a reversal of this policy.

 

[koxinga]

I have a friend that sits on joint business / economic committees with a few provincial governments in China.

The expectations are that we will see a gradual loosening of the zero COVID policy starting in January, prior to the Chinese Lunar New Year holidays. By 2H 2023, most of the restrictions are expected to be scrapped. We will see.

 

[ngatimozart]

I have a friend that sits on joint business / economic committees with a few provincial governments in China.

The expectations are that we will see a gradual loosening of the zero COVID policy starting in January, prior to the Chinese Lunar New Year holidays. By 2H 2023, most of the restrictions are expected to be scrapped. We will see.

People may have expectations but it will be up to Xi and the Politburo Standing Committee. Xi has a lot riding on his Zero Covid policy and he won't relax the policy until the political conditions are right. Guess who gets to determine the political conditions etc? This is not the CCP of Jiang Zemin or Hu Jintao and it is not a CCP that is focussed on the economy at all. Those days are gone. This is now a CCP that is focussed on ideological purity and the Party. If you look at Xi's speeches at the recent Party Congress, he made little mention of the PRC economy in comparison to Taiwan, security, strength, ideology, and the Party. That's where his focus is now and will be for the next five or so years.

@Stampede Is your friend back in Australia yet? I'd be surprised if they let them back out of the PRC unless they're doing something considered as necessary for the CCP/PRC. There have been reports of PRC nationals prevented from leaving for holidays, children prevented from traveling overseas for education, students only able to travel overseas for university education, business people only allowed overseas if it's for the betterment of the "motherland". Passports were being cut by immigration officials at PRC international departure points. Countries that are looking forward to large numbers of PRC tourists are going to have to think of new markets.

 

[Ananda]

That's where his focus is now and will be for the next five or so years.

Yeah, but no matter more hard line ideologically Xi's turn out compare to Jiang's and Hu's, in the end he must know CCP fortune also very tight related toward Economics progress of China. Xi's afterall still very committed toward Road and Belt foreign policy approach, and he's very committed on creating new multipolar world order. Even he can know it is depends on continue relevancies of China market growth influences toward global economy.

Thus why the market now divided on what's to expect on Xi's CCP going to do toward balancing their Covid approach and economics growth.

Possible China Covid Reopening Prompts Jittery Markets, Intense Speculation

The lack of clarity around whether or not China will ease its Covid-19 strategy is prompting a guessing game, with investors making bets that the country will open up soon, while others are more cautious.

www.wsj.com

Especially after his control toward CCP now getting firmer.

 

[ngatimozart]

Yeah, but no matter more hard line ideologically Xi's turn out compare to Jiang's and Hu's, in the end he must know CCP fortune also very tight related toward Economics progress of China. Xi's afterall still very committed toward Road and Belt foreign policy approach, and he's very committed on creating new multipolar world order. Even he can know it is depends on continue relevancies of China market growth influences toward global economy.

Thus why the market now divided on what's to expect on Xi's CCP going to do toward balancing their Covid approach and economics growth.

Possible China Covid Reopening Prompts Jittery Markets, Intense Speculation

The lack of clarity around whether or not China will ease its Covid-19 strategy is prompting a guessing game, with investors making bets that the country will open up soon, while others are more cautious.

www.wsj.com

Especially after his control toward CCP now getting firmer.

Trouble is most of the outsiders, especially those in the west are thinking in mercantilist terms and looking at it through a western lens, not through a CCP lens. They don't have a CCP lens and they don't truly understand the changes that are happening. Xi doesn't think in terms of economy like non CCP ideologues or even like Jiang and Hu did. He thinks in Marxism with Chinese characteristics terms and the PRC economy will revert to a planned economy, in true Marxist - Leninist - Maoist style. That's what his "Common Prosperity" policy is about. It's enshrined in the recently approved amendment to the CCP Constitution



You can see from the slide above that the PRC is heading back t a planned economy. It's in the CCP constitution now so must be followed.

 

[koxinga]

You can see from the slide above that the PRC is heading back t a planned economy. It's in the CCP constitution now so must be followed.

The term "common propserity" isn't new, it is basically a call back to "小康社会 " or xiaokang society, which is a political term describing the fair distribution of wealth, which had been a primary concern for Xi. He sees this (economic disparity, worship of economic goals) as a major threat to stability, brought about by the laissez faire policies of his predecessors.

I would disagree with you on the direction that Xi is heading, because you have made the assumption that his choice is a "hard left", in western terms/i.e. command economy. I would say he has moved more towards "center left" in terms of economic policies.

A move like creating the Beijing Stock Exchange in 2021 for example is an attempt to control the flow of money from the coastal cities like Shanghai back to the political center. A hard left move towards command economy would have seen him shutting down exchanges for go.

What Xi is trying to do, in simple terms is trying to get the country to focus on nationalists goals (e.g his whole China Dream stuff), instead of getting rich goals. Hence you see previously prominent business leaders and heroes like Jack Ma disappearing from the scene and even leaders which are more aligned to the party like Huawei's Ren taking a backseat.

 

[Ananda]

Ngati, when I ask my colleugue in Greater China desk on what this means (few days after CCP Congress), he said basically on surface nothing changes, just strenghtening what Xi's already done so far.

Common Prosperity as Koxinga put is already common term throughout CCP life time so far, from one leader to another. mutually reinforcing domestic and international market chain is the aim for Xi's Belt and Road Policy. Internal market chain is something that China already work for this last two decades and more since Deng's open up China.

As Mention before in this thread, low wages is not the thing that make China growth exponentially (at least up to Covid). However their abilities to create manufacturing super chain, which in turn means nearly every manufacturing parts sources within China. This is what make China efficient as manufacturing super hub. Something that others like India, ASEAN and other low cost economies (other word on low wages) still not able to copy. This is why despite relocation 'exodus' recently, in truth most still stay in China.

This is why market perplexed and divided on guessing when Xi's CCP going to relax this zero covid policy. Because this policy is the one that can jeoperdise 'internal market chain' that China already build for more than two decades, and still continue as one of their corner stone development goals.

Xi's in some way going to copy on Mao's policy. However I don't think Xi's reign is going to be another Mao's. China CCP from time to time are shaking up their society. We can see that in Tiananmen (as example), which they shake up but then again rebuild toward what they want.

Right now market (can see in many articles in FT, Blomberg, SCMP, etc) already see this COVID being used by Xi's faction as part of their version on shaking up society as well. However too much shaking up, will not be beneficials to what they already built, including their 'Internal Market Chain' mechanism.

China in the end want to depend more on their Internal market. Most big population market done that, US does, even EU also. Thus this is the question on guessing how far Xi's CCP going to balance it.

One thing for sure, you can get substantial fortune if you guess right and bet in correct timing on HK, Shanghai or Beijing market.

 

[ngatimozart]

I am looking at it from a political CCP POV and it's not how I read it. Xi will go far left to a Maoist style but he's smarter than Mao by a long shot and he's accumulating more power than Mao ever had. FWIU Mao never had a PSC (Politburo Standing Committee) with all the members personally handpicked by himself. Xi has and is the only CCP leader to have been able to do so. That's what's different and it means that all bets are off.

 

[koxinga]

But what does "Maoist style" mean precisely?

Sure, he wants all the trappings of Mao, the absolute political control etc but, is China going back to the revolutionary fervour.of the little red book? What is your definition?

Because practically the Chinese people, especially the urban population are used to a standard of living that is incompatible with most definition of a Maoist, collectivist lifeatyle. No one is going to trade their Uniqlo for a Zhongshan suit.

 

[InterestedParty]

But what does "Maoist style" mean precisely?

Sure, he wants all the trappings of Mao, the absolute political control etc but, is China going back to the revolutionary fervour.of the little red book? What is your definition?

Because practically the Chinese people, especially the urban population are used to a standard of living that is incompatible with most definition of a Maoist, collectivist lifeatyle. No one is going to trade their Uniqlo for a Zhongshan suit.

Could Mao (or Stalin or Hitler) have done what he did in an internet environment in which everyone has a smart phone to record events and upload them.
Even with the Great Fire Wall, the huge army of official and unofficial guardians of the CCP are in an ever growing game of whack a mole, trying to maintain control.

 

[ngatimozart]

But what does "Maoist style" mean precisely?

Sure, he wants all the trappings of Mao, the absolute political control etc but, is China going back to the revolutionary fervour.of the little red book? What is your definition?

Because practically the Chinese people, especially the urban population are used to a standard of living that is incompatible with most definition of a Maoist, collectivist lifeatyle. No one is going to trade their Uniqlo for a Zhongshan suit.

The PRC is heading back to revolutionary fervour. All the Party members are expected to have read and understood Xi Jinping's Thought which is now part of the CCP Constitution. It's now being taught in all the schools from primary onwards. People may have to wear a Zhongshan suit if they're required to; there will be no choice in the matter and if / when Xi pushes the PRC back towards the collectivist life that Mao espoused they won't have any choice. A communist party is always in permanent revolution; that's the whole being of Marxist - Leninist - Stalinist - Maoist thought and dogma. The revolution is always ongoing. Any far leftist will tell you that.

 

[koxinga]

A communist party is always in permanent revolution; that's the whole being of Marxist - Leninist - Stalinist - Maoist thought and dogma. The revolution is always ongoing. Any far leftist will tell you that.

That is the theoretical definition of lefitism and that has always been the core identity/manifesto of the CCP, nothing has changed.

What is different in practice is how each generation of leaders chose to interpret "leftism" and adds on their commentary, much like generations of Church leaders comment on and interpret the Bible.

In practice though, leaders are human and Chinese leaders, Xi included, if anything else sees ideology as a means to an end. He might indeed be moving closer to the ideological roots of communism but I would hesitate to see him as a new Mao or to introduce any societal changes like what Mao did.

His bottomline is 乱 (luan) or instability and that has always been his justification for the power grab. The move towards reinvigorating leftism, gloifying Mao's ideals is just an attempt to fill the void of a Chinese society that is hollowed out by rampant consumerism, and general disillusionment toward the future. Movements/counter-culture like 躺平 (lying flat) from the current generation of Chinese (millienials and Gen Zs) are what he is worried about. They are just symptoms of a larger problem that he hopes to solve with a return to the left.

China's success so far involves climbing up Maslow's hierarchy of needs in the material sense. So it is not a surprise that they are facing such questions.

 

[John Fedup]

An article on the Xi-Trudeau exchange at the G-20. Huge revelations, Xi doesn’t consider Canada to be important, a real minor player and he disrespects Trudeau. As to the former, hard to disagree from his perspective and as to the latter, many Canadians feel the same way, especially me.


'Berated' and 'agitated': What's being said about Trudeau's G20 exchange with Chinese President Xi

 

[ngatimozart]

An article on the Xi-Trudeau exchange at the G-20. Huge revelations, Xi doesn’t consider Canada to be important, a real minor player and he disrespects Trudeau. As to the former, hard to disagree from his perspective and as to the latter, many Canadians feel the same way, especially me.

'Berated' and 'agitated': What's being said about Trudeau's G20 exchange with Chinese President Xi

Read about it earlier this morning and Trudeau does have a really good point. Xi's trying to bully him and his conduct is uncalled for, regardless of who the Canadian PM is. He's not disrespecting the person, but the country as a whole. As much as you may personally dislike your PM it doesn't excuse the fact that Xi insulted your country. Grow up and get over your personal prejudices because they cloud your judgement.

 

[weaponwh]

Hence you see previously prominent business leaders and heroes like Jack Ma disappearing from the scene and even leaders which are more aligned to the party like Huawei's Ren taking a backseat.

i would say the tech crackdown is more complicate than it seem. there is alot issue in china regarding anti-monopoly, fake review, consumer privacy, etc etc, basically it wasn't regulate at all in the early days, mainly because china want company such as alibaba etc etc to thrive but now its changing, china clearly want fundamental industry such as semiconductor to thrive instead e-commerce

 

[weaponwh]

Read about it earlier this morning and Trudeau does have a really good point. Xi's trying to bully him and his conduct is uncalled for, regardless of who the Canadian PM is. He's not disrespecting the person, but the country as a whole. As much as you may personally dislike your PM it doesn't excuse the fact that Xi insulted your country. Grow up and get over your personal prejudices because they cloud your judgement.

it seem that article is sensationalized . i watch the video, the only thing Xi complain was about private meeting been leak was inappropriate, and thats not how china do things. i didn't hear anything he said berate Trudeau

 

[Meriv90]

For Chinese/Confucian societies what Xi did was a slap to the face to Trudeau, you don't speak that strongly against someone.

And as an European I classify what happened as Canada fault, no one publicizes all diplomacy made, it would be a suicide, there is real politik and what the public receives, lets not hit around the bush, if someone leaks a conversation like that it has a purpose(internal or external) thus the other party is completely entitled to be offended by so.