The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[Feanor]

Update.

Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa.

Novaya Kahovka is getting hit again. Secondary detonations can be seen in one of the videos, possibly munitions getting hit.

Colonelcassad

ВСУ снова обстреливают Новую Каховку. Над городом работает ПВО. Как минимум 1 прилет в промзоне.

t.me

Colonelcassad

Взрывы в промзоне в Новой Каховке. На кадрах можно отметить вторичную детонацию.

t.me

Russia intercepted some of the inbounds towards Novaya Kahovka near the small town of Bashtanka.

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Russian Smerch strikes hitting alleged Ukrainian positions in Kherson region.

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Russian strikes on Nikolaev. One of the targets is school 51, an alleged Ukrainian staging area. Another target is the University of Shipbuilding.

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Colonelcassad

Университет кораблестроения в Николаеве.

t.me

Russian strikes on Odessa.

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Russian Khrizantema SP ATGM carrier, Kherson region.

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Russian ships in the Black Sea.

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Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk.

Russian strike on an electrical equipment manufacturing plant in Zaporozhye, allegedly a Ukrainian staging area.

Colonelcassad

По удару в Запорожье. В Запорожье прилет по заводу высоковольтной аппаратуры. Это филиал Запорожского Трансформаторного Завода. Отмечалась переброска на завод вагонов с военными грузами. Эта переброска не осталась без внимания наших военных.

t.me

Colonelcassad

Один из цехов Запорожского завода высоковольтной аппаратуры. Всего прилетело 2 "Калибра" (запускали корабли ЧФ). Ранее на завод загоняли вагоны с военным грузами. Традиционные матюки недовольных прилагаются.

t.me

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Russian strike in Dnepropetrovsk region.

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Russian security forces operating in Melitopol'.

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Kharkov-Sumy.

Russian strikes on Ukrainian positions in the forests of Kharkov region.

РаZвед_ДоZор

Охота на позиции ВСУ в лесополосе Харьковской области. Соответствующее оборудование, ружья, лицензия на охоту и GPS-навигатор имеются @razved_dozor

t.me

Russian strikes in Kharkov.

Colonelcassad

Видео прилетов в Харькове.

t.me

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Ukrainian T-64BV mod'17 parked next to a residential structure in Saltov, Kharkov.

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Izyum Salient.

Russian MLRS strikes on alleged Ukrainian positions, Izyum salient.

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Russian strikes on Slavyansk-Kramatorsk continue.

Colonelcassad

Утром пошли новые удары по Славянску и Краматорску. Удары по Славянско-Краматорской агломерации и по Артемовску продолжаются со вчерашнего вечера. Также идут удары в районе Северска. Из ЛНР сообщают об "оперативном контроле" над Северском, но пока что подтверждающих видео с мест нет. Ждем.

t.me

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Fragments of a Russian Kh-59MK missile in Slavyansk.

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Ukrainian 2S7s have been spotted in Kramatorsk.

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There is a claim from the Russian side that Ukraine remote-mined several areas of Izyum, the town. Details are lacking and the evidence is a sole photo of unknown location.

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LDNR Front.

Air defenses intercept something over Makeevka (Donetsk).

Colonelcassad

Очередной перехват цели над Макеевкой расчетами ПВО. #Донецк #Россия #Украина @rybar https://t.me/rybar/35542

t.me

Russian strike on Ukrainian forces in Berestovoe, near Artemovsk/Bakhmut.

Kotsnews

Российская десантура демилитаризирует БТР и живую силу противника. Берестовое. @sashakots

t.me

Russian or rebel artillery shelling Ukrainian positions near Novoluganskoe.

Неофициальный Безсонов

#эксклюзив Наша артиллерия разносит и поджигает позиции ВСУ в районе н.п. Новолуганское. Наблюдение и корректировка огня ведётся при помощи квадрокоптера «Mavic-3», предоставленного в подразделение гуманитарной организацией «ВЕЧЕ». @NeoficialniyBeZsonoV

t.me

Russian TOS strikes near Donetsk.

ТРУШНЫЙ

ТОС-1 бьет по позициям ВСУ под Донецком.

t.me

Air defenses firing over Khartsyzk.

Военкор Котенок

Над Харцызском работает ПВО. Местные жители пишут о падении осколков. @voenkorKotenok

t.me

Rebel mortar and artillery strikes near Avdeevka.

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Russian Uragan strikes presumably on Seversk.

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More shots of the destroyed M-777 and Oshkosh in Lisichansk.

Повёрнутые на войне

Уничтоженные грузовик M1083A1P2 MTV и гаубица М777 американского производства в Лисичанске.

t.me

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Destroyed Ukrainian BMP-2 somewhere near Donetsk.

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Gorlovka got hit by shelling.

Colonelcassad

Кадры обстрела Горловки.

t.me

Some interesting footage of Ukrainian bunkers from the 1st defense line around Avdeevka. They've fallen some time ago. Apparently the second line consists of similar bunkers.

Военкор Астрахань

Как выглядят украинские бетонные укрепления в районе авдеевки

t.me

T-62M column, LNR area.

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Russian EOD clearing mines from around Mariupol'.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️Робот-сапёр «Уран-6», тридцатиградусная жара и огромное количество снарядов Именно в таких непростых условиях российские сапёры разминируют территорию Мариуполя неподалёку от "Азовстали". Взрывотехники сообщили, еще необходимо проверить участок длиной в 24 км, но уже в самом начале пути они...

t.me

Russia.

Belgorod region, the town of Grayvoron was allegedly hit by a UAV strike. No serious damage, the library was hit. There are also reports a missile was shot down over or near the town.

Военкор Котенок

В Белгородской области c БПЛА обстреляли г. Грайворон. Серьёзный ущерб отсутствует, повреждено здание библиотеки. @voenkorKotenok

t.me

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Misc.

Allegedly a Pantsyr and a Tor intercepting a Ukrainian UAV. Location and context unclear.

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Russian Ka-52 firing a Vikhr ATGM.

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Apparently a Russian strike hitting a Ukrainian column. Location and context unclear.

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A Russian quadcopter drops a grenade on Ukrainian soldiers, casualties are seen being evacuated afterwards.

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Ukrainian PzH-2000 firing.

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Allegedly a downed Ukrainian Su-27. Location and context unclear.

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Dambiev

Демилитаризованный украинский Су-27.

t.me

Ukrainian POWs taken by Russian Marines. Location and context unclear, allegedly Donbass.

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A captured Ukrainian Streit Group Cougar. Location and context unclear.

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A Ukrainian train carrying vehicles from storage; BRDM-2 14, MT-LBu 10.

БелВПО

Засветился украинский эшелон со снятой с хранения техникой: БРДМ-2 и артиллерийские КШМ

t.me

A rare upgraded BMP-3 with mounts for extra armor seen in Ukraine. No extra armor in sight though. This is a vehicle likely from 2020-2021.

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A very strange Ukrainian BTR-60PB with a BMD-2 turret, allegedly taken from a destroyed Russian vehicle. The engine appears to have been replaced, and I suspect the turret doesn't rotate. In fact the vehicle may be a training aid rather then a real combat vehicle.

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БТРоБМД

Украинский демилитаризованный БТР-60 с башней БМД-2. Не совсем понятно боевая машина или учебная. Хотя на Украине, при нехватке БТТ, одно из другого переходит враз.

shusharmor.livejournal.com

БТР-60-30?

Интересный БТР-60ПБ засветился при "подготовке бойцов территориальной обороны в киевской области". А именно у машины вместо штатного "комплекса вооружения" установлена башня от БМД-2. Судя по пластинкам которые держат всю эту конструкцию единой - башня вращаться не может и стрельба возможно только…

shushpanzer-ru.livejournal.com

В продолжение истории про БТР-60-30

Пост ниже, а я в инете еще фоток увидел

shushpanzer-ru.livejournal.com

 

[Feanor]

Some interesting old footage from Russia's air-assault operation on Gostomel' has surfaced, showing combat, house clearing, and UAV use.

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[seaspear]

Im not sure the Himar system in present configuration has enough power to put out of commission those bridges ,possibly the m777 with an upgrade of the accuracy system's employed the U.S version may be of more use , a question might be of using a missile strike to the bridge piers ,but Im sure thats already been foreseen
The Reality Of What HIMARS Rocket Artillery Systems Can And Can't Do For Ukraine (Updated) (thedrive.com)

 

[Feanor]

Im not sure the Himar system in present configuration has enough power to put out of commission those bridges ,possibly the m777 with an upgrade of the accuracy system's employed the U.S version may be of more use , a question might be of using a missile strike to the bridge piers ,but Im sure thats already been foreseen
The Reality Of What HIMARS Rocket Artillery Systems Can And Can't Do For Ukraine (Updated) (thedrive.com)

If I'm not mistaken, this is the state of the bridge right now. The photo isn't labeled with location but I'm reasonably sure that's what that is.

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[Twain]

The artillery hits seem pretty tightly clustered to be attacking a column. Some reports are that the bridge is now closed

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1549677719226654722

Reportedly at least the most recent attack was Excaliburs. Ukraine received 1000 rounds of them recently

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1549814881041408000

Latest reports are one lane is open, but I have yet to see any video or pictu8res of anything large or heavy crossing the bridge, just cars. It also appears the Ukrainians struck a portion of the bridge that is over land. I assume it is easier to repair that way. Is the nearby railway bridge reopened yet? If it isn't usable it could get ugly for the russians in kherson in short order

 

[ngatimozart]

Satellite shots of the bridges taken on 18/7/22 which is 3 days ago.


This the P47 bridge. (See map below)


This is the E97 bridge, the main bridge.


This is the rail bridge

All of these images are from the Sentinel-2 L2A satellite and processed through Sentinel Hub Playground an OSINT tool that I have started using.


Map of the area. The rail bridge isn't shown on the map. Map taken from Google maps.

I have only put these up for reference.

 

[Vivendi]

New package from the UK, including more than 20 M109 155mm, 36 L119 105mm, counter-battery radar systems and more than 50,000 rounds of ammunition for Ukraine’s existing Soviet era artillery. The UK will also send more than 1,600 more anti-tank weapons in the coming weeks, along with drones, including hundreds of loitering aerial munitions. UK to send scores of artillery guns and hundreds of drones to Ukraine - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

The next package from the US will include 4 HIMARS, bringing the total number of HIMARS to 16. The package will also include rounds for GMLRS, and artillery. The U.S. has sent $6.1 billion in military aid to Ukraine since Russia invaded in February. US to send more HIMARS precision rocket systems to Ukraine in latest package (defensenews.com)

EU has approved the fifth tranche of military aid (EUR 500 million) -- total military aid from EU is now at 2.5 billion EUR. EU approves 5th tranche of military aid to Ukraine worth 500 mn euros (helsinkitimes.fi)

Six more Caesars are on their way from France. Six More French Caesar Howitzers 'on Way' to Ukraine: Minister (thedefensepost.com)


An emotional Stoltenberg urges EU to "stop complaining and help Ukraine". "The price we pay as the European Union, as NATO, is the price we can measure in currency, in money," he said. "The price [Ukrainians] pay is measured in lives lost every day."

Further, he said "If you don't care about the moral aspect of this, supporting the people of Ukraine, you should care about your own security interests. "Pay for the support, pay for the humanitarian aid, pay the consequences of the economic sanctions, because the alternative is to pay a much higher price later on," Stoltenberg added. NATO Leader Tells Europe to 'Stop Complaining' and Help Ukraine (newsweek.com)

I fully agree with Stoltenberg. Ukraine is in Europe. The EU should pay much more than what they do today. The alternative of not supporting Ukraine is worse in all respects.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

In the recent Russia-Iran-Turkey summit in Tehran, Iran complained to Russia about Israel's attacks on Iranian arms shipments across Syria.
Russia refused to change its current policy, which is not to interfere with said attacks.

Thus it becomes clearer why Israel maintains a no intervention policy in Ukraine.

To those wondering why this is relevant - there has been speculation all around on whether the sale of Iranian drones to Russia would affect Israeli policy on Ukraine.

 

[swerve]

...EU has approved the fifth tranche of military aid (EUR 500 million) -- total military aid from EU is now at 2.5 billion EUR. EU approves 5th tranche of military aid to Ukraine worth 500 mn euros (helsinkitimes.fi)

I think that doesn't include all the national contributions, just aid channelled through the EU. The total from EU countries is quite a lot more.

 

[Feanor]

Update.

Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa.

Russian strikes in Nikolaev.

АГЕНТ ГОСДЕПА

Рано утром вновь удар был нанесен по целям ВСУ в Николаеве.

t.me

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Russian strikes, Odessa.

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Херсонский Вестник

Видео от наших подписчиков из Одессы. Последствия ракетного удара по промзоне. Судя по столбу огня и дыма прилетело точно в цель. Либо ГСМ, либо техника‼️

t.me

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Colonelcassad

В Одесской промзоне продолжается сильный пожар после утреннего удара. Пока что неизвестно, что именно стало целью удара - скорее всего завтра утром в сводке МО РФ конкретизируют.

t.me

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Ukrainian strikes on the Novo-Kahovskaya dam.

Colonelcassad

Прилет в районе Каховской ГЭС.

t.me

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Russian VDV in action, Kherson region.

Херсонский Вестник

#эксклюзив Работа российских десантников по бронетанковым подразделениям ВСУ на Херсонщине. Благодаря скорости и точности бойцов ВДВ, у украинских националистов нет ни шанса на спасение

t.me

Russian VDV, D-30 fires, hitting Ukrainian positions towards Nikolaev.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️ Разведка ВДВ корректирует уничтожение позиций ВСУ на Николаевском направлении Разведчики-десантники ВДВ корректируют огонь гаубиц Д-30, уничтожающих позиции ВСУ на Херсонско-Николаевском направлении. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

A pair of Ukrainian Su-25s, Odessa region.

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Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk.

The Yuzhmash factory in Dnepropetrovsk has been hit among other targets.

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Ukrainian air defenses firing, Dnepropetrovsk.

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Russian Lancet-3 usage has been confirmed towards Zaporozhye.

Военный Осведомитель

Первое зафиксированное боевое применение барражирующего боеприпаса «Ланцет-3» от компании ZALA Aero по позициям ВСУ на Запорожском направлении. Обломки дрона-камикадзе выложили сами украинские военные. Ранее "Ростех" уже официально заявлял об успешном применении дронов «Ланцет» в боевых...

t.me

Tornado-S fragments, Dnepropetrovsk region.

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Russian SIM cards are being distributed in Tokamak, as local communications switch to Russian standards.

Colonelcassad

Очередь за российскими сим картами в Токмаке. В Токмак приходит Российская мобильная связь. Один из пунктов продажи сим карт. Украинская сторона мобильную связь отключила, вчера пытались нанести ракетный удар, 5 ракет в районе Токмак были перехвачены ПВО ВС РФ.

t.me

The North.

Ukrainian Su-27 intercepts a Russian missile near Kiev.

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Kharkov-Sumy.

Russia hit the command post of the 92nd Bde, and reportedly took out a number of senior officers. Information is coming from Ukrainian chats. The strike was against a house in Novopokrovka.

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Izyum Salient.

Russian Msta-S firing towards Slavyansk.

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Russian Tornado-S landing in Kramatorsk.

Военный Осведомитель

Применение спускающегося на стабилизирующем парашюте корректируемого реактивного 300-мм снаряда для РСЗО «Торнадо-С» по украинским объектам в Краматорске. Ранее аналогичные боеприпасы применялись для ударов по позициям ВСУ в Харькове.

t.me

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A rocket fragment burns in Kramatorsk.

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Ukrainian Kozak armored car getting taken out by a Russian strike near Slavyansk.

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LDNR Front.

Either Russian irregulars or rebel infantry in action, wooded area outside of Seversk.

Colonelcassad

Стрелковый бой в лесопосадке на окраинах Северска. Источник: https://t.me/izvestia

t.me

Russian irregulars or rebel infantry in a firefight, LNR area.

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Ukrainian strongpoint under a bridge, near Avdeevka, getting hit.

Неофициальный Безсонов

#эксклюзив Уничтожение украинского опорника на Авдеевском направлении. @NeoficialniyBeZsonoV

t.me

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Rebel forces using a single Grad rocket tube near Avdeevka.

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Strikes land in Stakhanov, and Alchevsk trolleybus depot, LNR area.

Colonelcassad

Прилет в Стаханове.

t.me

Colonelcassad

Прилет в троллейбусно-автобусное депо в Алчевске.

t.me

A Russian Su-34(M?) was downed near Alchevsk by friendly fire. Apparently air defenses were firing on inbound missiles.

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Russian sources claim air defenses over Lugansk intercepted 2 HIMARS rockets. Note a single volley is 6 rockets, so presumably the other 4 landed somewhere.

WarDonbass

Над Луганском наше ПВО сбили 2 ракеты Himers, 4 минуты назад

t.me

Russia/rebel strike in Toretsk apparently hit a Ukrainian staging area. KIAs are estimated from 6 (Ukrainian sources) to 30-40 from Russian sources.

Херсонский Вестник

Утром был нанесён сильный удар по ВСУ в Торецке‼️

t.me

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Russian/rebel artillery strikes, LDNR area.

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Destroyed 2S7, allegedly Ukrainian, near Artemovsk/Bakhmut.

Военный Осведомитель

203-мм САУ 2С7 «Пион» ВСУ уничтоженная в районе Артемовска (Бахмут).

t.me

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Kozak armored car destroyed near Seversk. There have been a few of these destroyed and captured lately, I'm suspecting there's some new element in the area using these vehicles.

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Ukrainian weapons captured near Seversk.

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DNR Ural-based guntruck.

ганДНРтрак

shusharmor.livejournal.com

BMPT near Seversk.

РИА Новости

БМПТ "Терминатор" направляется на фронт в районе Северска

t.me

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A Ukrainian weapon stash found in the LNR area, possibly left behind by retreating Ukrainian forces.

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Russian EOD begins mineclearing work in Severodonetsk.

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Russian humanitarian aid arrives in Lisichansk. Note we've had far fewer such videos lately, it's plausible this is related to reduced tempos of Russian advance.

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[Feanor]

The West.

Russian strike lands in Vinnitsa.

ТРОЙКА ‍☠️

Что так быстро собирают хохлы сразу после удара по Виннице? Ведь надо максимально оставить сцену преступления! Они собирают поражающие элементы украинской ракеты пво. Которая упала на людей.

t.me

Allegedly Ukrainian draft-age men fleeing into neighboring Romania.

BelVestnik

‼️Украинские граждане призывного возраста бегут в Румынию дедовским способом. Защищать киевский режим — так себе затея, и в ход для побега идут любые доступные средства, в том числе переправа в Румынию на плоту.

t.me

Russia.

Tetkino village, Kursk region, got hit again.

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The South-Uralian volunteer btln is heading to Ukraine. Two such btlns are being formed with 261 and 253 fighters. Confusingly enough they're named South-Uralian, and Southern Urals.

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Misc.

First documented use of Ukrainian RM-70 MLRS.

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Ukrainian helos lobbing rockets, location and context unclear.

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Russian PGM strikes, some against Ukrainian military storage. Location unclear. Some appear to be Kh-59MK, some LMUR, and some Kh-29.

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Colonelcassad

Российская ракета "Изделие-305Э" влетает форточку объекта ВСУ на Украине Видео: @zvezdanews

t.me

WarDonbass

Российская ракета "Изделие-305Э" влетает форточку объекта ВСУ на Украине

t.me

Allegedly Russian snipers taking out Ukrainian soldiers.

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Russian motor-rifles in action, with T-72B, B3, and BMP-3. It's probably the armored element took losses and was replenished with un-upgraded Bs.

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Battle damage from a Russian strike on Ukrainian military storage. It's clear the strike didn't take out the entire facility.

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Destroyed Kozak armored car, location and context unclear.

Colonelcassad

Фотографии уничтоженного бронеавтомобиля «Казак-2» (укр. «Козак-2») в районе Северска Фото: @RVvoenkor

t.me

Ukrainian M-777A2 howitzer destroyed, location and context unclear.

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Polish Krab howitzer destroyed, location and context unclear.

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Ukrainian T-64BV destroyed by a shot through the rear, location and context unclear.

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Ukrainian military pickup trucks destroyed by a Russian strike. They belong to the second assault company, unclear what brigade.

Colonelcassad

Пикапы 2-й штурмовой роты ВСУ после удара российской артиллерии.

t.me

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Captured Kozak-5 armored car, location and context unclear.

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Russian forces using an unmanned BMR-3MA mineclearer created under the Prokhod-1 OKR. This is a nearly brand new system on the T-90 chassis.

Colonelcassad

Первое видео применения российскими войсками в зоне проведения СВО на Украине роботизированного комплекса разминирования «Проход-1» на базе БМР-3МА с тралом ТМТ-С. Видео: @ChDambiev

t.me

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Russian EOD in Ukraine, location and context unclear.

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Russian BRM-1Ks have arrived in Ukraine.

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Russian Uragan unit, location and context unclear.

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Ukrainian forces allegedly using an ambulance to move personnel around.

Colonelcassad

Укронацисты продолжают прятаться в машинах скорой помощи. Видео: @ukr_g_m

t.me

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There are reports that Petr Poroshenko purchased a number of vehicles for the Ukrainian armed forces from abroad including 42 Leyland DFS trucks, 24 Mitsubishi L-200 pickups, 18 JAC pickups, and a van with unspecified reconnaissance equipment.

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Ukrainian forces have converted and aircraft toilet maintenance vehicle into a guntruck.

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Как у Кэмерона в "Чужих" но другой

У него был БТР на базе аэродромного тягача а тут гантрак на базе, как пишут, машиныа аэродромного сервиса туалет - сервиса заправки пресной водой . Телеграф - канал Панцерваффли

shusharmor.livejournal.com

Ukrainian PzH-2000s, location and context unclear.

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NATO/EU.

Ukraine confirms receipt of first M-270 MLRS.

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PT-91s heading somewhere on a train, possibly being handed over to Ukraine.

Военный обозреватель

Кадры переброски нескольких десятков польских танков PT-92 Twardy (модернизация Т-72), предположительно, на Украину. Ранее уже были сообщения о передаче Киеву данных машин, взамен которых Варшава получит бывшие в эксплуатации американские Abrams. #Польша @new_militarycolumnist

t.me

It appears French VABs are heading to Ukraine as military aid.

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UkrSpecSystems is moving their UAV production line to Poland.

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There is a report out of Germany that the US has created a shadow command structure in Ukraine, to assist with the prosecution of the war. Personally I've assumed as much based on Ukraine's actions.

USA betreiben offenbar geheime Kommando-Struktur in der Ukraine - nach Vorbild aus Afghanistan

Nato und USA beteiligen sich offiziell nicht direkt am Krieg in der Ukraine. Dennoch befinden sich offenbar C.I.A.-Agenten vor Ort.

www.merkur.de

A Ukrainian AN-12 crashed in Greece while transporting munitions. This is the second An-12 crash and highlights the age and poor condition of the aircraft.

Милитарист

Согласно заявлению министра обороны Сербии, разбившийся в Греции украинский Ан-12БК перевозил 11 тонн вооружения и боеприпасов в Бангладеш, на борту находились восемь человек, которые погибли

t.me

 

[kato]

I think that doesn't include all the national contributions, just aid channelled through the EU. The total from EU countries is quite a lot more.

I would dispute that somewhat, although we don't know exactly due to OPSEC issues in particular for French deliveries and because in many cases we're talking depot stocks with arguable financial worth. In addition in many - cases equipment is bought from EU member countries but bought with EU EPF money (i.e. from that EU financial package), but still depending on list pops up in their national contribution as well.

 

[Feanor]

It appears after making a sweeping advance from Lisichansk towards the Artemovsk/Bakhmut to Seversk line, Russian and rebel forces are now mostly halted. They're making small advances here and there, and Avdeevka is threatened by a movement from the north, which could turn into an encirclement. It's unclear if this is a planned halt before reorganizing and resuming the advance, as some sources have speculated, or a forced halt due to either strong defenses or destruction of munition stockpiles in recent days. It does appear that Ukraine has rotated fresh units into this new line, and that may have to do with the Russian halt.

 

[swerve]

I would dispute that somewhat, although we don't know exactly due to OPSEC issues in particular for French deliveries and because in many cases we're talking depot stocks with arguable financial worth. In addition in many - cases equipment is bought from EU member countries but bought with EU EPF money (i.e. from that EU financial package), but still depending on list pops up in their national contribution as well.

The depot stocks issue is one of the reasons I think the EU tally doesn't include all the national contributions. Well, unless the EU has been revaluing national donations, piece by piece. One can argue about true values & costs (& some of the national valuations look suspect to me), but there have been quite a lot of donations of stored equipment, & in some cases old but still in service equipment, which have incurred little financial cost to the donors but which are of real value to Ukraine & would cost significant amounts to buy.

I have to admit that it's very difficult to price many of those donations, though.

This also applies to some US & UK donations, of course. What's the price of a missile (e.g. a Javelin) nearing its expiry date. soon to be useless if not (expensively) refurbished? Are the donors valuing it at replacement cost or sale price? To the Ukrainians, who want to use it now, it's worth much the same as a new missile. There's a lot of scope for subjective valuation.

 

[seaspear]

It appears after making a sweeping advance from Lisichansk towards the Artemovsk/Bakhmut to Seversk line, Russian and rebel forces are now mostly halted. They're making small advances here and there, and Avdeevka is threatened by a movement from the north, which could turn into an encirclement. It's unclear if this is a planned halt before reorganizing and resuming the advance, as some sources have speculated, or a forced halt due to either strong defenses or destruction of munition stockpiles in recent days. It does appear that Ukraine has rotated fresh units into this new line, and that may have to do with the Russian halt.

Is there any accurate comparison of the replenishment of materials for both sides amid speculation of shortages impacting the conflict, another question is there an accurate source providing information on what both sides have left in war materials and present armed forces size?

 

[Feanor]

Is there any accurate comparison of the replenishment of materials for both sides amid speculation of shortages impacting the conflict, another question is there an accurate source providing information on what both sides have left in war materials and present armed forces size?

I'm not aware of any accurate sources that have this kind of comprehensive data, especially since it changes day by day and week by week. We know Ukraine has hit Russian munition stockpiles quite spectacularly and we have iirc ISW claiming that Russia has had to change their offload points from rail to truck, placing them further in the rear (a logical step).

I think it's safe to assume that Russia has practically unlimited supplies of equipment and munitions in principle, with single specific categories of things like UAVs or PGMs subject to depletion. However delivering and massing them at useful locations is another story.

I think it's also safe to assume Ukraine has nearly depleted their pre-war stockpiles of most things with some items still available. But I suspect at this point Ukraine's ability to continue fighting is dependent primarily on foreign aid. Again this is my assessment based on mountains of anecdotal pieces. And remember, Ukraine has received stockpiles of Soviet munition types from abroad too.

 

[vikingatespam]

Is there any accurate comparison of the replenishment of materials for both sides amid speculation of shortages impacting the conflict, another question is there an accurate source providing information on what both sides have left in war materials and present armed forces size?

On youtube there is an author "Perun" who examines some of these questions, such as RU munitions stockpiles, or RU tank reserves. The short answer is that there is no certainty, just educated guesses.

 

[ngatimozart]

On youtube there is an author "Perun" who examines some of these questions, such as RU munitions stockpiles, or RU tank reserves. The short answer is that there is no certainty, just educated guesses.

I would treat this Perun's material with a significant degree of caution, and is definitely not a source that is acceptable here because the validity of it is suspect and its claims cannot be verified.

 

[ngatimozart]

The US SECDEF and SECAF have not discounted the possibility of USAF A-10 Warthogs being transferred to the Ukrainian AF at some stage. Giving A-10 Warthogs To Ukraine Isn't Off The Table | The Drive The Ukrainians have asked for them yet and the US hasn't made any decisions about transferring them or any other combat aircraft to them either. However it is an interesting possibility of some Brrrrrt in the morning over Ukraine.

The BBC has been tracking Ukrainian grain stolen by Russia. Tracking where Russia is taking Ukraine's stolen grain - BBC News It's quite an interesting story and it's robbery writ large.

Russia's also looting Ukrainian steel that had been bought and paid for by British and EU customers. Russia 'looting' steel bound for Europe and UK, says Metinvest boss - BBC News

The head of MI6 has believes that Russia is as he puts it, running out of steam Russia about to run out of steam in Ukraine - MI6 chief - BBC News. He said that it will reach the end of its manpower, equipment, and material resources in the next few weeks and that this has been self inflicted, by the political leadership decision not to call it a war, and to mobilise the country at the start.

A Times Radio interview with General Sir Richard Barron (Ret) discussing Putin's problems in Ukraine and Russia's move away from Europe to Asia.

Francis Fukuyama on Putin's Russia and it now being a Nazi State.

Putin's meetings in Tehran

US claims Russia intends annexing more Ukrainian territory.

Russian FM Larov says Russia will extend its war goals in Ukraine because of western arming of Ukraine with weapons especially long range artillery such as HIMARS.

 

[Vivendi]

The head of MI6 has believes that Russia is as he puts it, running out of steam Russia about to run out of steam in Ukraine - MI6 chief - BBC News. He said that it will reach the end of its manpower, equipment, and material resources in the next few weeks and that this has been self inflicted, by the political leadership decision not to call it a war, and to mobilise the country at the start.

I hope he is right and that Russia will run out of steam but I am afraid Russia will keep going. I think Putin will keep attacking during the coming months, hoping that the Western countries (in particular Germany, France, Italy) will give in and prioritize lower gas prizes over Ukraine. That would be a disaster for both Ukraine and the future security of Europe.

I think the reason Putin insist on not calling this a war and not do a full mobilization is because he is concerned that the popular support from Russians will disappear quite rapidly if he did that. As long as he is sending people from poor regions of Russia, and prisoners (Russian Prisons, Corporations Recruit Ukraine ‘Volunteers’ – Reports - The Moscow Times) he can probably maintain popular support for quite some time. As long as he can find volunteers so poor and so desperate that they are willing to go, he will be able to keep this going for months without a general mobilization. Russia has a population of 144 million people, many of them quite poor. As Feanor said above, equipment and munitions are in are in general not yet an issue for Russia, apart from some categories (e.g., UAVs and PGMs). Hopefully Iran will not provide UAVs to Russia, that would be pretty bad.

Ukraine has also had massive losses of both personnel and equipment. They rely completely on Western support for equipment, munitions, and training. If Western support drops too much, Ukraine will lose more than Donbas, even if Russia is having a lot of issues right now and may be "running out of steam".