The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Arji

Active Member
Is there anything that could stop the Russian from escalating the status into an actual war? Internationally, I think every country already saw this as a war between states. It's not like their image could get any lower at this point. So any opposition (if any) must come from within. If Putin's grip on authority is as absolute as most news made it out to be, what's stopping him from just escalating from Special Operation to just plain old war? Heck, he could make some hogwash reason as to why the survival of Russia hinges on this war or something along that line.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
It would be a complete about-turn. He, Lavrov et al have all been talking as if Russia is winning, with few losses, & there's no need to mobilise fully. They act in public as if Russia can bully NATO, making threats. Suddenly saying "The Motherland is in danger of destruction! We must all commit ourselves to the struggle for survival!" would be an admission of both failure & weakness. & of having lied up to that point. They could be afraid of the domestic reaction.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
Depends on how Moscow going to package it domestically, I suspect. Moscow already told their domestics (they don't care what collective west thingking at this stage), that this Special Operation in Ukraine is not a 'war' as it is still basically "limited" military operation.

However lately they already put how West using Ukraine as proxy war. Basically they said (which is have a base on this), by their own, Ukraine resources already exhausted. Ukraine now fight only with Western support and supplies. So Russia has no choices but to answer on Western challange on the security of "motherland". This also give credit for their argument that Ukraine is giving 'genuine' threats to Russia. Again this is what they sell to domestics and Pro Russian nations publics. They don't care what Collective West publics thinks.

They've talk on HIMARS with longer range missile (spread out this much on Pro Russian online sites), I suspect prepare the domestics for Russian need to take more Ukraine land to give buffer toward 'Western' threats in Ukrainian uniform.

Thus more Western supplies going to Ukraine, can be use for Moscow, to prepare their domestics for more escallations, even full war operation in Ukraine.
 

vikingatespam

Well-Known Member
I would treat this Perun's material with a significant degree of caution, and is definitely not a source that is acceptable here because the validity of it is suspect and its claims cannot be verified.
In a sea of overtly opinionated and/or suspect material, his approach and methodology are reasonable and (IMHO) free of obvious biases. In the case of the ammo expenditures, he does use RU and US "official" source material to come to a conclusion, albeit one with a large +/-

I did make a mistake in my earlier post....the video on RU tank reserves is by Covert Cabal, which IIRC in one of the comments has the actual geographic locations noted.
 
I think at this point we can conclude that Russia is in for a long haul, unless something dramatically changes in one of the spheres of this conflict. I believe that there are three distinct spheres of competition between Russia and West regarding Ukrainian conflict.

Military sphere (inconclusive)
Although early failures of the Russian army surprised many of us, they have consolidated and achieved certain victories. They continue to hold the initiative over most of the front and the ability to strike deep within Ukraine with impunity. On the other hand they have failed to destroy the Ukrainian army or its willingness to fight and as such have not achieved their primary objective.

Diplomatic sphere (inconclusive, leaning Russia)
As with the first sphere, here we also have a surprise. The West has failed to diplomatically isolate Russia (not for the lack of trying). Most countries globally have not joined sanctions or stopped their trade and bilateral relations with Russians. There have been notable abstentions from sanctions such as Turkey (NATO member) and unwillingness from the rest of the global community to follow West's lead. However even without the rest of the global community this has still caused major disruptions to Russia's diplomacy such as Lavrov's inability to reach Belgrade due to lack of available route.

Economic sphere (advantage Russia)
This one is the most surprising of all (at least for me). Russia's uncanny ability to counter Western sanctions and preserve macroeconomic stability has been a surprise that can have bigger consequences than their unexpected underwhelming performance on the battlefield. Russian inflation is 15% and falling while some EU members have more than 20%, US inflation stands at 9.1% with tendency to grow further. It would not surprise me if Russia and US inflation were in a ballpark which would be a major success for the Russians. GDP contraction is another indicator of Russia's better than expected performance. At the beginning of the war and introduction of sanctions it was forecast between 30%-50%, then it was revised to 15%, then again around 8%, and now it's at 3.5% contraction which would be truly remarkable.

All of the spheres are closely interlocked and have great effect on each other, and as such can alleviate pressure from each other. Russia's resilient economy plus its ability to retain trade and bilateral ties with majority of international community allows it to continue their military effort (however slow it is). Evidence for a longer war can also be seen in reduction of Russian forces in a conflict zone, Russian guard has mostly left even though they were a significant part of the invasion force.

In conclusion I believe we are going to see a continuation of hostilities from medium to long-term period with attrition in military but also in two other spheres as a major deciding factor in how long this conflict lasts.
 

Musashi_kenshin

Well-Known Member

Good news for Ukraine and hungry countries around the world. It appears that Russia will not have a right to inspect grain ships at port or whilst in transit. Assuming Moscow hasn't signed this in bad faith, perhaps they decided that refusing to allow Ukrainian grain shipments would lead to further international pressure (hungry, rioting citizens have a habit of overthrowing governments).
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
Russia will not have rights to inspect the grain out from Ukraine control ports, but they are part of coalition that inspect the grain ships that coming. This is to make sure the ship is not bringing any equipment that can be use for Ukraine war effort.

This is not much different then the draft being circulated before (mostly from Turkish forums). Basically Turkiye is the third parties that being used by both Ukraine and Russia to safe guard Ukraine agricultural products out, and guarantee no war equipment coming in.

This deal shown Sultan Erdo to the world and especially to Collective West, Turkiye is the only party that have trust from both waring parties. Thus any deals with Russian will need Turkiye intermediaries. More points for Sultan Erdo.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
He has other reasons too. Turkey relies on Russian tourists; it shares the Black Sea with Russia and it's involved in Syria where Russia is a player. Turkey also has dealings with Iran and Russia has some level of influence with Iran. Like others Turkey is very concerned but it has to walk a thin line. It's also telling that Turkey continues to supply the Ukraine whilst also being chummy with Russia.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa.

It appears a Russian Su-35S went down in Kherson region. Pilot ejected.


Footage of a recent strike against the bridge at Zatoka, Odessa region. That bridge has been hit several times.


Allegedly Russian loitering munition strikes, Kherson region.


Kherson region, Russian air defenses firing.


Battle damage to the Antonov bridge, Kherson.


An explosion took place near the Antonov bridge, but not on it. So far details are lacking.


Battle damage to the Novo-Kahovskaya hydro-electric dam.


An explosion in Skadovsk, context unclear.


Russian strikes landing in Nikolaev.


3 fuel trucks caught fire in Odessa, unclear if accidental.


A weapon stash that included 2 MANPADS was found in Kherson region. Attacks on Russian occupation administration authorities remain common there.


Russia has started distributing passports in Novaya Kahovka according to recently promulgated rules on accellerated Russian citizenship for Ukrainian citizens.


Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk.

Footage of battle damage to Zaporozhskaya NPP and UAV fragments after a Ukrainian loitering munitions strike.


Satellite imagery shows the battle damage to Yuzhmash.


Kharkov-Sumy.

Russian strikes landing in Kharkov.


Izyum Salient.

Russian artillery hitting the outskirts of Slavyansk.


Ukrainian forces are moving T-72Ms and T-64BVs into Kramatorsk.


Russian humanitarian aid being handed out near Izyum.


LDNR Front.

A Russian strike, allegedly Krasnopol', aimed at a suspected Ukrainian comms hub in a mine tower.


DNR Konkurs launch against a suspected artillery FO. Using ATGMs against things other then vehicles has become standard in this conflict.


DNR ATGM launch, near Ugledar.


DNR 9th Regiment, under fire.


Rebel 107th Rgt shelling Mar'inka.


LNR 7th Brigade (1st linke) and DNR 1st Brigade (2nd link), D-20 battery delivering fires. Note how they hide the guns when not in action.


LNR Msta-S howitzer firing near Soledar. Russian and rebel forces are on the outskirts of that town.


Air defenses firing over Kirovsk, LNR area.


Alchevsk, battle damage from a recent Ukrainian strike involving HIMARS.


GMLRS fragment found near Donetsk.


Rebel forces have captured a T-72M, reportedly a Ukrainian attack hit local reservists, with 4 tanks and ~50 infantry. They're claiming two tanks destroyed and one knocked out (and captured) on the battle field, a 4th destroyed by a UAV (quadcopter) while retreating.


Munitions have been found in Severodonetsk. It's quite likely more munitions will be found, as the city was defended for quite some time.


Russian humanitarian aid is being delivered in and around Lisichansk.


Russia.

Belgorod region, Iskander launches.


Novie Yurkovichi, Bryansk region, got hit again.


Krupets border checkpoint, Kursk region, got hit.


An unknown UAV was sighted flying over Kursk, it may have been a Russian Forpost or a Ukrainain Bayraktar.


Misc.

Russian PGM strikes continue, location and context unclear.


Russian helo strikes, location and context unclear.


Russian helos lobbing rockets, including a rare Mi-28UB.


Russian strike against an alleged Right sector staging area, location and context unclear.


More footage of Russian sniper work.


Msta-B howitzers firing, Russian or rebel, location and context unclear.


Lastochka small strike UAVs are being used by Russia in Ukraine.


A T-64BM knocked out, location and context unclear. While the type is used predominantly by Ukraine, at least one was in rebel service at one point. The lack of white tactical markings suggests that this vehicle is Ukrainian though we don't get a good look at the whole thing.


Ukrainian technical firing .50 cal, location and context unclear.


Ukrainian FH-70 howitzer, location and context unclear.


Polish BWP-1 in Ukrainian hands.


Old and new, Ural-U towing a Giatsint-B.


6 T-62Ms and a BREM-1, location and context unclear.


NATO/EU.

A train was sighted with German PzH-2000 and Fuchs APCs heading towards Ukraine, possibly more military aid.


Reportedly 6 more Caesar howitzers are heading to Ukraine.


Lithuania will reportedly deliver M113s and M577s to Ukraine.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
With the agreement signed on grain exports with Turkey acting a a guarantor ,it seems to suggest there might be no longer an impediment to Russian ships carrying grain stolen from the Ukraine being stopped
Satellite imagery, ship data indicates path of Russian vessel Kyiv says shipped “looted” grain (msn.com)
There are easy workarounds. Export the grain from occupied areas into Russia, and export Russian grain externally. Schemes like this have been done with LDNR coal, and Iranian oil.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
In a sea of overtly opinionated and/or suspect material, his approach and methodology are reasonable and (IMHO) free of obvious biases. In the case of the ammo expenditures, he does use RU and US "official" source material to come to a conclusion, albeit one with a large +/-

I did make a mistake in my earlier post....the video on RU tank reserves is by Covert Cabal, which IIRC in one of the comments has the actual geographic locations noted.
It doesn't matter, he doesn't meet the reputable and verifiable source requirements. End of story.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Is there anything that could stop the Russian from escalating the status into an actual war? Internationally, I think every country already saw this as a war between states. It's not like their image could get any lower at this point. So any opposition (if any) must come from within. If Putin's grip on authority is as absolute as most news made it out to be, what's stopping him from just escalating from Special Operation to just plain old war? Heck, he could make some hogwash reason as to why the survival of Russia hinges on this war or something along that line.
It would be a complete about-turn. He, Lavrov et al have all been talking as if Russia is winning, with few losses, & there's no need to mobilise fully. They act in public as if Russia can bully NATO, making threats. Suddenly saying "The Motherland is in danger of destruction! We must all commit ourselves to the struggle for survival!" would be an admission of both failure & weakness. & of having lied up to that point. They could be afraid of the domestic reaction.
Swerve is correct to a point. Putin wouldn't be concerned about a domestic reaction from the great hairy unwashed. The police and security forces can deal with that. He has a far more serious and personal reason to be concerned and that is keeping his head from being ventilated by a 7.65m x 45 pistol round; what the NKVD / KGB called a Nagan neck shot. His colleagues in his inner core don't tolerate failure very well and weakness even less. His inner core is:
  • Sergei Shoigu - Minister of Defence.
  • General of the Army Valery Gerasimov - Chief of General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces.
  • Nikolai Patrushev - Secretary of the Security Council.
  • Alexander Bortnikov - FSB (Federal Security Bureau) Director.
  • Sergei Naryshkin - SVR ((Foreign Intelligence Service) Director.
Patrushev, Bortnikov, and Naryshkin were all KGB in Leningrad and Patrushev worked with Putin in Leningrad from the 1970s. He took over from Putin as the head of the FSB in 1999. Ukraine conflict: Who's in Putin's inner circle and running the war? - BBC News

Patrushev is also very anti west and if / when Putin requires replacing he would have the pull to have a good chance of taking over because it would only be the military who would stand in his way. His two KGB colleagues may still defer to him because of his seniority through out their careers and having a KGB mindset that may still hold. They are siloviki, hardmen or enforcers as are all five, so there will be a hierarchy within the group. The Minister of Defence and army General would most likely be at the bottom of the hierarchy.

The military have long been what the FT calls depoliticised, although I disagree with that term because under the CPSU they were highly politicised with compulsory political education Inside Putin’s circle — the real Russian elite | Financial Times (ft.com) The article makes the point that Putin's purging of the senior ranks of military has achieved an increase in apparent incompetence of the remaining senior officers which along with the poor performance of the military in the war against Ukraine, could lead to what I would call serious discontent amongst the less senior and the middle level officers. There is already discontent amongst the ordinary grunts. If he is rolled the military may not bother to save him and let's be honest why should it.

The real problem is, as I have touched on above, who will replace Putin? If it is Patrushev with Bortnikov, and Naryshkin as his deputies then that will be worse than what Putin's doing now. I would think that they wouldn't hesitate to go all out on Ukraine and stuff the consequences. Patrushev is a real hawk and he wouldn't hesitate at all. I also think that they would clamp down real hard on the Russian population too. They're secret policemen after all and secret policemen love nothing better than a citizenship doing as it's told. It would be the Troika from hell.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
This didn't take long. Sign an agreement on Friday to allow safe passage of grain from 3 ports. Saturday morning attack one of those ports.


Hard to understand why anyone would trust russia
Was there an agreement to stop striking port infrastructure? And was there an agreement for Ukraine to move all military assets out of the port area? Remember, many port areas have a maze of warehouses that can be used to hide military assets. And Russia has been hitting targets in ports for weeks. The agreement is "inspected empty ship comes in, leaves with grain".

Sorry but what was done with Iranian oil?
Iirc there was a case of Russia importing some oil from Iran, using it domestically, and exporting its own oil.
 
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vonnoobie

Well-Known Member
Was there an agreement to stop striking port infrastructure? And was there an agreement for Ukraine to move all military assets out of the port area? Remember, many port areas have a maze of warehouses that can be used to hide military assets. And Russia has been hitting targets in ports for weeks. The agreement is "inspected empty ship comes in, leaves with grain".
Russia, Ukraine sign UN-backed grain export deal

The Russian and Ukrainian sides will also withhold attacks on any of the commercial vessels or ports engaged in the initiative to transport vital grain, while UN and Turkish monitors will be present in Ukrainian ports in order to demarcate areas protected by the agreement
If the news article is correct (Havent found the agreement its self, Just a ton of news articles which clogs the search up ugh) then the ports arent meant to be attacked which puts Russian forces squarly in the wrong however it does get a bit murky..

Ukraine according to liveuamap.com claims to have detected 4 Kalibre missiles, shot down 2 and 2 struck the port however according the Turkish defence officials as per a bbc.com article Russia denies they carried out the attack and are 'examining the issue' very closely....
 

Musashi_kenshin

Well-Known Member
The agreement is "inspected empty ship comes in, leaves with grain".
Who the hell is going to willingly pilot a ship into a port that Russia is attacking? This is Russia being petulant or trying to undermine the agreement by scaring prospective grain ships away. ("Oh, it's not our fault if no one is willing to transport Ukrainian grain, tee-hee.")
 

Twain

Active Member
Was there an agreement to stop striking port infrastructure? And was there an agreement for Ukraine to move all military assets out of the port area? Remember, many port areas have a maze of warehouses that can be used to hide military assets. And Russia has been hitting targets in ports for weeks. The agreement is "inspected empty ship comes in, leaves with grain".

Well russia is going down the same path they have used over and over.


denying they launched any missiles at odessa

next will come one or more of the following

Ukraine launched missiles at themselves as a false flag
We targeted a military asset
there were military assets in the general area
Ukraine shot it down and it only hit there because of the Ukrainians

Take the kramatorsk excuses and just insert Odessa

What russia did do is sign an agreement guaranteeing safe passage of ships to 3 ports. Then what they did was muddy the waters by hitting something at least directly adjacent, if not part of the grain terminal. Reports vary if they hit a large grain bin or just near it.

What the result will be is that ship owners will be reluctant to send ships to any ukrainian port and insurers will either not offer insurance or it will be exorbitantly high. Again, why would anyone trust any agreement russia signed is beyond me.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
Again, why would anyone trust any agreement russia signed is beyond me.
It has less to do with trust than with necessity. There is no way any grain can be shipped out without Russian cooperation and agreement unless NATO is wiling to deploy naval assets to the Black Sea.
 
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