The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

T.C.P · Jul 19, 2022

After almost 8 days of no decent footage release by the Russian side, we saw a glut released yesterday.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/w1wfpe
Two Hermes TV guided missiles. One missiles footage of the other. The russians on telegra claim this has 100km of range, but the realistic efffective range of 30km as mentioned by other sources, seem more realisitic. But even then this is a longer rnage than the Vikhr missiles. If the Ka-52ks had enough of these they would have been capable of dealing a lot more damage to the UA side.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/w1wofs
A snippet of this video was released day before yesterday, this is the longer version. First strike at 3:10 in the video. This is some quite accurate fire. The losses should be significant. There is debate in the comments section about what was the source of the strike- SPH/MLRS. I hope one of our experts on this board can give us a better estimate on the type of artillery used.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/w273hf
Some very good sniper footage. 3 UA soldiers shot in the exact same spot. I have zero military expereince, and i have no idea why they seem not to react to the first 2 shots, maybe the sound of artillery and water was disguising the sound of the rifle?

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/w1v1tc
A SU-34m allegedly brought down by friendly fire, footage of the wreck- https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1548928553571553280?s=20&t=ZWzMZSbToFitJDWN5Xh_Ug

claim that it was a su-34m

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1549014699710115840

Only a handful of 2u-34Ms exist, so this is a significant loss.

Big_Zucchini · Jul 19, 2022

T.C.P said:
Two Hermes TV guided missiles. One missiles footage of the other. The russians on telegra claim this has 100km of range, but the realistic efffective range of 30km as mentioned by other sources, seem more realisitic. But even then this is a longer rnage than the Vikhr missiles. If the Ka-52ks had enough of these they would have been capable of dealing a lot more damage to the UA side

TV guided missiles aren't a new tech yet are a significant improvement over many other alternatives like the dominantly SACLOS ATGMs used by Russia, or the various laser or GPS guided aerial munitions.
That is because not only do they allow scanning an area before impact, but they provide good BDA capabilities, especially if fired in volleys, and require much less intel on a target. Instead of needing precise location, they can be employed while knowing only a somewhat general location of an enemy.

This might cause a notable improvement in Russian performance. The west should realize they need to revive their own similar programs (e.g UK's Exactor that was more or less abandoned) and start supplying these to Ukraine.
Unfortunately the only prolific missile with TV guidance in the west is the Spike, which requires Israeli permission - which won't happen unless some specific events on the Iran front occur.

What should also worry the west is that TV guided missiles, although very capable, require simpler construction than other types of missiles, and so are not as difficult to build as some alternatives amid sanctions.

OPSSG · Jul 19, 2022

As some have noted, the newly arrived HIMARS precision rockets are causing Russian howitzers to adopt shoot and scoot tactics. When these efforts fail, the Ukrainian Army are killing the Russian gunners and destroying their munitions dumps. Meanwhile, Russia is rapidly expending its weapons stocks, and Ukraine is rapidly expending those of NATO stocks.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1549061753459265541

Something to think about — Munitions (quantity & quality), range and accuracy all matter.

ngatimozart · Jul 19, 2022

An interview with one of Putin's oldest enemy and is advice on how to deal with Putin. This is a Canadian CBC interview.

A claim that the US Congress in the NDAA has authorised US$100 million for the training of Ukrainian Air Force pilots and maintenance personnel in the operation of US fixed wing combat aircraft. This does not mean that the US has authorised the transfer or sale of US combat aircraft to Ukraine, by the US or any other country.

Russia is increasing its attacks on Ukrainian ports at the same time that it is supposedly negotiating the safe transit of Ukrainian wheat out of the Black Sea to the world. Actions speak louder than words.

Big_Zucchini · Jul 19, 2022

OPSSG said:
As some have noted, the newly arrived HIMARS precision rockets are causing Russian howitzers to adopt shoot and scoot tactics. When these efforts fail, the Ukrainian Army are killing the Russian gunners and destroying their munitions dumps. Meanwhile, Russia is rapidly expending its weapons stocks, and Ukraine is rapidly expending those of NATO stocks.

Good. Shoot and scoot is a necessary thing for survivability, but is costly, and in Russia's case means they'll have more visible logistics and more volume of vulnerable comms.

tabu · Jul 19, 2022

ngatimozart said:
A claim that the US Congress in the NDAA has authorised US$100 million for the training of Ukrainian Air Force pilots and maintenance personnel in the operation of US fixed wing combat aircraft. This does not mean that the US has authorised the transfer or sale of US combat aircraft to Ukraine, by the US or any other country.

Kremlin discusses preparations for referendums in Donetsk and Luhansk people's republics

The Kremlin does not set the task of holding referendums simultaneously on all Ukrainian territories that have come under Russian control. They may first take place in the LNR and DNR, RBC's sources said.

В Кремле обсудили подготовку к референдумам в ЛНР и ДНР

В Кремле не ставят задачу провести референдумы одновременно на всех украинских территориях, которые перешли под контроль России. Сначала они могут пройти в ЛНР и ДНР, говорят источники РБК

www.rbc.ru

If a referendum is held in Luhansk on September 11 on the annexation of this region to Russia, which could be a direct change in the state borders of Russia and Ukraine, i.e. Russia's occupation of Ukrainian territories, this move by Russia will very likely lead to a decision by the US Congress and Senate, signed automatically by Biden, to hand over a certain number of combat aircraft with weapons and equipment to the AFU. The training of Ukrainian pilots and ground staff is only a first step in response to Russian threats. Further steps will depend on what Russia does with the occupied territories. Step by..

Big_Zucchini · Jul 19, 2022

tabu said:
Kremlin discusses preparations for referendums in Donetsk and Luhansk people's republics

The Kremlin does not set the task of holding referendums simultaneously on all Ukrainian territories that have come under Russian control. They may first take place in the LNR and DNR, RBC's sources said.

The referendums don't actually have to take place. This is a facade, as they can technically just have the local governments "vote" to be annexed to Russia and that's it.
It will give Russia a way to express its tone for the following months.
Oddly, knowing Russian propaganda methods, I have a feeling it won't be as straightforward as unanimous votes for annexation.

Feanor · Jul 19, 2022

Update.

Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa.

Ukrainian strikes are hitting Kherson, Russian air defenses are firing.

Readovka

В Херсоне прогремели четыре взрыва — в городе сработало ПВО Как сообщили Readovka очевидцы, в городе сегодня с утра прогремели взрывы — в небе видны следы работы ПВО. Херсон второй день подряд находится под серьезным обстрелом ВСУ с николаевского направления. Вчера местные жители сообщали о...

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The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

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