Russia - General Discussion.

[Stuart M]

Definitely not. Putin is far more cunning and dangerous than either Hitler or Mussolini ever were. Hitler was the best General the allies ever had. Yes you are right about Mussolini, however he did get Italian trains to run on time. That was a feat in itself.

So cunning that he's turned his nation into a complete economic pariah, bogged it down in a war of attrition and his population is still shrinking. No, Putin is good at playing the strongman when he doesn't have to prove it against someone who punches back I think.

Here I definitely disagree. Xi makes Hitler look like a has been. If you want a historical comparison to Xi, think of Stalin with access to modern surveillance technology. Then infuse that with Mao's inwards looking peasant based ideology and you have Xi.

That wasn't the comparison I was making, just that if one is comparing Putin to Hitler, Putins actions look more Mussoesque than Hitlarian and Xi looks more Hitlarian. Xi is obviously a different kettle of fish, but politicians and msm are never keen to compare him to Stalin, not that I think that it's productive to do so.

We are treating Putin as he is.

That article linked above was treating him like ol Adolf, and there's far to much of it.

However comparisons to previous tyrants and genocidal maniacs cannot be avoided because that is one of the criteria that we use to measure a leaders worth, especially one who is running a repressive authoritarian dictatorship. How do you assess someone like Putin if you cannot actively compare and contrast them with historical metrics such as Hitler, Stalin, Robespierre, Ivan the Terrible, Polpot, Papa Doc Duvalier, Mao etc?

If you wish to do so, fine, I don't find such comparisons to be useful.

We don't do ourselves a disservice by looking at comparisons or options beyond "stopping" them. In fact it's very important to plan ahead and plan for all possible outcomes. The end of WW1 taught us that because it directly lead to Hitler, the Holocaust, WW2, The Middle East wars and crisis etc. The complete diplomatic balls up from the ashes of WW1 still reverberates throughout the world today, 103 years and one devastating war later.

Snip

I was referring to the tendency of public's, and often expressed and taken to unreasonable extents by politicians and msm, to lul ourselves into a false sense of security on the basis of what Imperial Japan called Victory disease to which I add the success of the ancestors. When we are not objective about history, or treat ourselves as above the currents of reality, that's is when we do ourselves a disservice.

I don't include members of the armed forces in that category as they generally know better.

 

[Twain]

Seems like an appropriate time to post this

Who’s Behind #IStandWithPutin?
"The fact that Western analysts don’t see information warfare doesn’t mean it isn’t happening, and it doesn’t mean the West has won."

"Despite this, it’s far too early to declare information victory. If anything, this apparent consensus—that Ukraine has won the online war—might be obscuring where battles over the invasion are really raging."

"From there, we compiled a roster of randomly selected accounts from across our new map and delved into them, to try to draw out what set each of the different clusters of accounts apart. What struck us immediately was how clearly each cluster seemed to relate to geography—to the purported national identities and languages that the accounts used.

There was a dense knot of accounts identified as Indian that largely retweeted a stream of messaging in English and Hindi supporting Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party. Another group used Urdu, Sindhi, and Farsi, with users primarily identifying as Iranian or Pakistani. One node was ostensibly from South Africa but included Ghanaian, Nigerian, and Kenyan users talking about public health, fuel shortages in Nigeria, and former South African President Jacob Zuma."


"The memes pushed vivid anti-colonial and anti-Western imagery mixed with Putin strongman motifs and solidarity among the BRICS: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. Some applauded Russia’s great friendship toward India or Putin’s apparent role in African liberation movements, but many were really about the West, its own seeming hypocrisy, and the alleged aggression of NATO expansion."

Who’s Behind #IStandWithPutin?

The fact that Western analysts don’t see information warfare doesn’t mean it isn’t happening, and it doesn’t mean the West has won.

www.theatlantic.com

I'm not going to say too much about this because it is not my area of expertise (by a wide margin). I just found it interesting in who russia is targeting (asia and africa) with it's propaganda, and the how and why of it.

 

[Feanor]

Seems like an appropriate time to post this

Who’s Behind #IStandWithPutin?
"The fact that Western analysts don’t see information warfare doesn’t mean it isn’t happening, and it doesn’t mean the West has won."

"Despite this, it’s far too early to declare information victory. If anything, this apparent consensus—that Ukraine has won the online war—might be obscuring where battles over the invasion are really raging."

"From there, we compiled a roster of randomly selected accounts from across our new map and delved into them, to try to draw out what set each of the different clusters of accounts apart. What struck us immediately was how clearly each cluster seemed to relate to geography—to the purported national identities and languages that the accounts used.

There was a dense knot of accounts identified as Indian that largely retweeted a stream of messaging in English and Hindi supporting Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party. Another group used Urdu, Sindhi, and Farsi, with users primarily identifying as Iranian or Pakistani. One node was ostensibly from South Africa but included Ghanaian, Nigerian, and Kenyan users talking about public health, fuel shortages in Nigeria, and former South African President Jacob Zuma."


"The memes pushed vivid anti-colonial and anti-Western imagery mixed with Putin strongman motifs and solidarity among the BRICS: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. Some applauded Russia’s great friendship toward India or Putin’s apparent role in African liberation movements, but many were really about the West, its own seeming hypocrisy, and the alleged aggression of NATO expansion."

Who’s Behind #IStandWithPutin?

The fact that Western analysts don’t see information warfare doesn’t mean it isn’t happening, and it doesn’t mean the West has won.

www.theatlantic.com

I'm not going to say too much about this because it is not my area of expertise (by a wide margin). I just found it interesting in who russia is targeting (asia and africa) with it's propaganda, and the how and why of it.

Moved to appropriate thread.

I mean.. this isn't surprising. Look at who is still buying Russian oil and gas. This is part of the same argument Ananda was making. And it's part of Putin's undiguised belief that the age of western dominance is over, and diversifying towards non-western markets and partners is the way to go. Why this meant burning bridges with the west is unclear, but the fact that he's targetting these areas makes sense and fits with the rest of the pattern. Moreover these are less developed nation-states that may turn out to be more vulnerable to propaganda especially of this kind.

 

[Ananda]

Moreover these are less developed nation-states that may turn out to be more vulnerable to propaganda especially of this kind.

I do not think they are buying more to Russian propaganda because they come out from less developing society. However because they are from beginning are more inclined toward Russia then West.

I see the online war between pro Russia and pro West in some ASEAN forums for example, much related toward their Political choices. Those pro West (not going to say pro Ukranian, as many Asian on lines community believe this is actually war between Russia and West using Ukranian as proxy), from beginning already have more liberal leaning thinking. While pro Russian comes from mostly more traditionalist thinking.

Interesting situation is in India. Actually BJP is the most Pro Western administration there is in India. They're more leaning to West then Congress from example. However many pro BJP on line supporters turn to Putin support due to what they perceived as back lash toward Western politicians and media pressure to India in pushing to supporting Ukraine, and isolate Russia.

Seems some of Western politicians, mainstram media and big part of society can not and choose not to understand. They see the Ukraine War as Black and White matters, while many in Asia, Africa and even South America see this as 'grey' matters. Thus this's already huge gap of perception difference.

I don't want to open the debate why many outside Collective West and their closest allies, see this war on grey matters and decided to stay more or less in the fence. Western media and Politicians sometimes perplexed why many developing nations votes to condemned Russian Invasion, but reluctance to jump in to US lead band wagon on isolating Russia.

The matter of Russian resources, Russian defense items, and basically Russian business is still matter toward some developing nations energy life line and defense independent. However many also see this war not much difference with US lead invasion toward sovereign nation before. This point perhaps can raise ire from some Western or pro Western members in here. However it does not matter, because what ever the West debate on this will not change the many public perception in developing nations on this war.

The other thing that matter is China. Many in developing nations already see this world going to move toward Multi Polar global economy. Just like in last cold War, many in developing nations decided to be in the fences will be more beneficial. This is also seems that going to happen. China capital and Russian resources is alternative toward collective West capital and market, for some developing nations.

 

[T.C.P]

Seems like an appropriate time to post this

Who’s Behind #IStandWithPutin?
"The fact that Western analysts don’t see information warfare doesn’t mean it isn’t happening, and it doesn’t mean the West has won."

"Despite this, it’s far too early to declare information victory. If anything, this apparent consensus—that Ukraine has won the online war—might be obscuring where battles over the invasion are really raging."

"From there, we compiled a roster of randomly selected accounts from across our new map and delved into them, to try to draw out what set each of the different clusters of accounts apart. What struck us immediately was how clearly each cluster seemed to relate to geography—to the purported national identities and languages that the accounts used.

There was a dense knot of accounts identified as Indian that largely retweeted a stream of messaging in English and Hindi supporting Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party. Another group used Urdu, Sindhi, and Farsi, with users primarily identifying as Iranian or Pakistani. One node was ostensibly from South Africa but included Ghanaian, Nigerian, and Kenyan users talking about public health, fuel shortages in Nigeria, and former South African President Jacob Zuma."


"The memes pushed vivid anti-colonial and anti-Western imagery mixed with Putin strongman motifs and solidarity among the BRICS: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. Some applauded Russia’s great friendship toward India or Putin’s apparent role in African liberation movements, but many were really about the West, its own seeming hypocrisy, and the alleged aggression of NATO expansion."

Who’s Behind #IStandWithPutin?

The fact that Western analysts don’t see information warfare doesn’t mean it isn’t happening, and it doesn’t mean the West has won.

www.theatlantic.com

I'm not going to say too much about this because it is not my area of expertise (by a wide margin). I just found it interesting in who russia is targeting (asia and africa) with it's propaganda, and the how and why of it.

I cannot speak for India or other countries you mentioned, but the sentiment of my country is more Pro Russian than pro Western. I am talking about the sentiment of the populace and not the stance of the govt.

One key thing to keep in mind, is that in my country ( and in a lot of the countires you mentioned as well), Western military incursions are viewed differently. The way you feel so close to Ukraine because of cultural/racial/religious ties we feel the same way about Iraq, Libya, Palestine. I am not going to debate about the rightnesss or wrongess of the Iraqi/Libyan interventions, but they were extremely unpopular to the populace here.

And its not just military views either. My country is very conservative and populace are not exactly big fans of social liberalism.Putin has spent the last few years creating this image of a strong leader who stands up against the Wests "excess' social liberalization and this image has built him a lot of existing goodwill.

Add to that the fact that the west threatens sanctions/trade restirctions/ aid withdrawals if we dont meet their arbitrary human rights/ environmental concerns where as, neither China nor Russia ever interferes in our domestic policies. You might see that as a positive, but to us its Westerners trying to meddle in our affairs where as Russia leaves us alone.

Putting it all together, there is significant negative sentiment towards Western interventions( both military and political). This negative sentiment, means the population is more accomodating to anything that challenges the West. Its easy to sell a car to someone who is actively shopping for one.

 

[ngatimozart]

This is an interesting article positing that the Russian population is decreasing significantly. It could be argued that Putin is trying to boost the population by conquest. However what it does state is that the birth rate for the ethnic Russian population is well below the replacement rate and it's declining at an increasing rate. It has a high mortality rate compared to other nations and both it's male and female life expectancy is a lot lower than its neighbours or populations in the EU. Reasons given for this suggest high alcoholism, early cardiac events, and strokes as major causes. In the context of this thread, the most important impact it has, is the far lower replacement rate of ethnic Russians for the military, meaning a polyglot of recruits and service personnel in the military as it becomes more multi-ethnic, because far more personnel will not have Russian as their first language. This will create problems in the field.

Russia is dying out - UnHerd

 

[John Fedup]

This is an interesting article positing that the Russian population is decreasing significantly. It could be argued that Putin is trying to boost the population by conquest. However what it does state is that the birth rate for the ethnic Russian population is well below the replacement rate and it's declining at an increasing rate. It has a high mortality rate compared to other nations and both it's male and female life expectancy is a lot lower than its neighbours or populations in the EU. Reasons given for this suggest high alcoholism, early cardiac events, and strokes as major causes. In the context of this thread, the most important impact it has, is the far lower replacement rate of ethnic Russians for the military, meaning a polyglot of recruits and service personnel in the military as it becomes more multi-ethnic, because far more personnel will not have Russian as their first language. This will create problems in the field.

Russia is dying out - UnHerd

Given the serious decline is likely accurate it is another factor team Putin didn’t include in the risk analysis for the planned de-Nazification of Ukraine. Maintaining the revenue stream from Siberian resources will be difficult with the reduced population. I am sure Vlad’s friend Xi will make an attractive offer of Chinese workers for a big share of the action. Maybe Putin and his fellow thieves should just sell Siberia to China and run off and hide on a tropical island. Apparently Jeffrey Epstein’s island is up for sale.

 

[Ananda]

It could be argued that Putin is trying to boost the population by conquest

That can be argue on one thing. Ukranian fertility rate is actually lower then Russian ones. The data shown Russian fertility rate is 1.5 while Ukraine is 1.2. Both below International threshold of 1.7-1.8 fertility rate which being considered as threshold for one on one replacement rate.

If Russia being call dying out, then Ukraine is dying out much faster rate then Russian even before the war. By that logic, any conquest land of Ukraine will be depopulated much faster then Russian land.

Country comparison Russia vs Ukraine Total Fertility Rate 2024

Country comparison, you can compare any two countries and see the data side by side. Here you have the comparison of Russia vs Ukraine, Total Fertility Rate

countryeconomy.com

Asia to Ramp Up Gasoline Exports to US as Sky-High Prices Beckon

www.bloomberg.com

This is also interesting, as US source more gassoline from Asian refineries with biggest increase is coming from Indian ones. While at same time Indian refineries sources more crudes from Russia to be processed by them.

Thus it is very plausible those gassolines being procured by US from Indian refineries increasingly coming from Russian crude.

Just shown the complexities of global energy market makes any claim by US and Allies to cut off Russian energy from International market is something close to delutional. Again Global demand is increasing while supplies in the end is more finite.

Russian Oil Producers Start Using Tankers the World Didn’t Want

Russian oil producers are starting to book up an increasing number of tankers owned by the nation’s state tanker company, boosting demand for a fleet that fell from international favor after the invasion of Ukraine.

www.bloomberg.com

This is also shown how market will find away to circumstance political road block. This is also shown the movement toward multipolar global market will only accelerate by this sanctions.

 

[Ananda]

As inflation slows and the ruble rallies, Russia is hoping to avoid a financial crisis

Russian inflation came in at a two-decade high of 17.8% year-on-year in April, up from 16.7% in March, but price increase began to show signs of slowing.

www.cnbc.com

This articles basically reflects especially Western Financial Market perplexing on why Russian Economy is fast not collapsing yet (as many in West predicted). After all some of them give that prediction to US leadership on the effectiveness of Collective West and Allies sanctions toward Russia.

Whatever the analysts in financial industry, whether Western ones, Asian, South American, Indian, Chinese etc. All of them right now grappling on one question: Can a relatively large economy like Russia survive without access to Collective West market and economies ?

All the analysts in large investment banks now trying to see how this development will create new order of Multipolar Globalisation in the expenses of US and Collective West lead Unipolar Globalisation that happen after the Cold War.

Towards a Multi-Polar International System: Which Prospects for Global Peace?

Multi-polarity will not only carry the risks entailed in the research of the balance of power among great powers, but will add a new wide-ranging nuclear threat into equations.

www.e-ir.info

Put this study just to shown what the meaning for Multipolar, and how this's going to effect US lead effort on dictating the Globalisation direction. Most of the Western analysts still predicting in the end Russian collapse due to their thinking of nobody can survive without access to US leads system. In short they are still betting on US Unipolar Globalisation still dictating the world.

There're other analysts in Western market that give more dire prediction then CNBC article that I have put above. However there're also analysts in Non Western market that basically shown wait and see prediction, as they also see capabilities for Russia survive due to their resources.

I'm with later ones, as I also see Russian resources in the end will have the market demand no matter how hard US and EU try to block it. Also Russification of their industry including parts plus sourcing from non Western sources like China or even India, can't be discounted as replacement sources.

All analysts whether in Western or Non Western market agree there're will be negative effect to Russian economy due to the sanctions. Even in West S&P prediction still shown more optimistic rebound after two years of Russian economy. However also there're some analysts from large Investment banks that give prediction of total collapse within a year (which incidently they raised it from several months prediction before).

Still what many western mainstream media try to not talk much, how this sanctions also give negative effect toward Western economies that trying to revive after COVID.

Western Politicians claim their sanctions intended to bleeding Russian economy ability to continue financing the war in Ukraine. However Russia actually also bleeding Western effort to continue supporting Ukraine for long term. Ukraine right now basically broke, destroy economies and need hundreds of billions US and West support in order not to collapse.

Where's that money coming from ? Simple answer will be from USD 300 bio + Russian Central Bank reserve in Western Banks. Plus whatever money they can get from Russian Oligarchs assets. However if those goes to Ukraine whose going to pay Western Creditors ? Russia will not pay them if West taking their money. This it will be dilemma for West of choosing their creditors or using the money to Ukranian.

Despite all the talks, in the end I'm quite sure US and West will going to use the money to pay out their creditors and investors first. This's after all as compensation with Russian debts and FDI assets that either going to be confiscated by Russia or being sold on bargain price to whoever new non western Investors that's going to take over.

So the results of this Trade-Economics war just like the war in the ground, is simply to early to tell. However seems just like war in the ground in can be prolonged ones with big potential on stalemate-positioning results.

Then all back to basic question, will Unipolar US and Collective West lead globalisation stay or new Multipolar Globalisation come around to replace.

 

[ngatimozart]

Then all back to basic question, will Unipolar US and Collective West lead globalisation stay or new Multipolar Globalisation come around to replace.

A third option; will the current globalisation cycle per se end? That happened with the previous globalisation around the time of WW1 and after the end of WW1 global economies were highly protected until the current globalisation started in the 1980s.

 

[Ananda]

That happened with the previous globalisation around the time of WW1 and after the end of WW1 global economies were highly protected until the current globalisation started in the 1980s.

Definitely it could. We still don't know yet how Globalisation will come out after all of this. Even Western Market people already say that by weaponise USD and Euro with this trade war, it is already raise concern from other Non Intended market outside Collective West.

Globalisation will stay in my opinion, however it will be more protracted as increasing effort shown by markets now trying to limit themselves to each other. Effect of Federal Reserve action on increasing rates to fight inflation, so far asside increase the USD value also reduce Investment from Western markets toward emerging markets.

This resulted with emerging markets deepening their own local Investment sources as try to reduce portfolio dependency toward Western investors. On long term this will potentially reduce the free flow of capital movements that happen during this last three decades of Globalisation.

Yes the movement on current globalisation happen in the 80's however become full swing on the 90's with the demise of Cold War. Perhaps this current 20's decade will be another beginning on turning point of Globalisation like in the 80's.

 

[Twain]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1528523028623237120

Three months of sanctions won't turn the tide, eventually the effects will begin to show more and more. The ruble is holding it's value for now but only due to the capital controls on trading rubles. This can't last forever, it's effectively fixing the price of the ruble. If they continue to keep the capital controls in place we will see the same situation we see in places like Venezuela, two values for the currency, the "official" one and a black market one that more accurately reflects the real value of a currency.

As to the chart above, it will take russia years to recover from a 30% decline in their GDP

 

[Ananda]

That's only opinion from one of analysts. It is debatable on many Western claim on Russian central bank fixing Ruble price. What they are doing basically taking Ruble from Western market thus reduce the risk of ruble exposure for potential "intervention" from Western market speculation.

This afterall because Western market that push Ruble out. However Ruble still open in few overseas market (that Russian deemed is morr friendly). Ruble still traded in Shanghai and Hong Kong market for example. Ruble from begining is not big traded currencies, however now it is off limit on Western market, but not all other international market.

It is very argumentative to claim Russia will be like Venezuella. Yes both have large oil base industry. However Russia have much larger import substitutions industry that being increase after 2014 sanctions, and Russian dependencies on oil is not as large as Venezualla.

Again some in Western market will claim Russia will implode, some others analysts in other markets (even some in West) are seing potential different results. All depends on how big Russian resources and export can still gain alternative market, and how succesfull Russia doing Russification or find other alternative sources for their Import Substution Industry.

One thing for sure many Western Market analysts that claim Russian Economy colapsed also base most of their arguments on Russian fails to gain alternative export market and Import Subsitutions sources outside closed Western and allies market and sources. That's remain to be seen, including some US analysts claim of 30% GDP decrease (something that Biden administration like to also claim).

Personally I'm with Moody's that see Russian market will need at least two years to adjust (already send moody's assesment in this thread couple months ago). It can be busted, or it can also rebounded after that.

 

[Twain]

That's only opinion from one of analysts. It is debatable on many Western claim on Russian central bank fixing Ruble price. What they are doing basically taking Ruble from Western market thus reduce the risk of ruble exposure for potential intervention from Western market.

This afterall because Western market that push Ruble out. However Ruble still open in few overseas market (that Russian deemed is mori friendly). Ruble still traded in Shanghai and Hong Kong market for example.

It is very argumentative to claim Russia will be like Venezuella. Yes both have large oil base industry. However Russia have much larger import substitutions industry that being increase after 2014 sanctions, and Russian dependencies on oil is not as large as Venezualla.

Again some in Western market will claim Russia will implode, some others analysts in other markets (even some in West) are seing potential different results. All depends on how big Russian resources and export can still gain alternative market, and how succesfull Russia doing Russification or find other alternative sources for their Import Substution Industry.

One thing for sure many Western Market analysts that claim Russian Economy colapsed also base most of their arguments on Russian fails to gain alternative market and Import Subsitutions sources outside closed Western market and sources.

Let's be clear, that one opinion you dismiss is from the chief Foreign exchange strategist at goldman sachs and a senior economist at IMF.

Here's a few more data points that matter

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1526086893271715840

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1524329605989031936

As to the ruble, here are some of the restrictions on trading the ruble

Moscow Limits Foreign-Currency Trading to Shore Up Struggling Ruble

Russia’s central bank implemented fresh capital controls, limiting the amount of dollars that Russians can withdraw from foreign-currency bank accounts and barring banks from selling foreign currencies to customers for the next six months. The move is Moscow’s latest effort to shore the ruble, whic

www.wsj.com

"Russia’s central bank implemented fresh capital controls, limiting the amount of dollars that Russians can withdraw from foreign-currency bank accounts and barring banks from selling foreign currencies to customers for the next six months."

"The central bank’s new measure follows an order by the Kremlin late last month that forbids Russians from sending money to bank accounts abroad."

and few more

Urgent Measures to Support Ruble and Russian Economy

In the past few days the following key restrictive measures were introduced to support the ruble exchange rate and the Russian economy: Russian foreign trade participants (e.g. exporters of goods and services) must sell 80% of their foreign currency revenues resulting from any kind of foreign...

sanctionsnews.bakermckenzie.com

1. "Russian foreign trade participants (e.g. exporters of goods and services) must sell 80% of their foreign currency revenues resulting from any kind of foreign trade contracts within 3 days from receiving them on their Russian bank accounts. This requirement applies to revenues received starting from 1 January 2022.
2. Starting from March 2022 Russian residents, i.e. Russian entities, individuals and foreign citizens living in Russia under a residency permit, are not allowed to:

a. transfer foreign currency (without a special permit) to their accounts or deposits in foreign banks or other financial market participants;
b. provide loans (without a special permit) to non-residents in foreign currency and in rubles to residents of 43 countries that Russia regards as taking hostile action;
c. conclude (without a special permit) deals transferring ownership of securities and/or real estate with the residents of the mentioned 43 countries;
d. export foreign currency in cash in amounts exceeding the equivalent of USD 10,000.
Such transactions will be treated as unlawful and may trigger administrative fines from 75% to 100% of the transaction amount.

1. The Central Bank of Russia issued an instruction to Russian brokers and depositaries that administer securities (shares and bonds) to suspend:

a. the processing of requests of foreign residents to sell Russian securities;
b. the processing of payments on securities (including dividends and interest on bonds) to foreign residents."

Then add in the trading volume.

"Currency trading at Moscow Exchange (MOEX) halted its upward route in April as monthly volumes nearly halved from a month earlier."

https://financefeeds.com/fx-volumes-at-moex-halved-in-april-as-ruble-gains-gorund/

The ruble is working toward being a very thinly traded currency.

What is the volume of ruble trading at shanghai and hong kong and how does it compare to 2021?


That's a lot more than what you claim.

EDIT: For those who aren't familiar, Goldman Sachs is the second largest investment bank in the world with 2.5 trillion in assets

Leading banks by investment banking revenue 2024 | Statista

JPMorgan was the world's largest investment bank in 2023. The bank generated an investment banking revenue of around 5.8 billion U.S. dollars.

www.statista.com

These Are The 15 Largest Banks In The U.S. | Bankrate

Even the smallest of these big banks has enormously deep pockets. See which firms are in the money.

www.bankrate.com

 

[Ananda]

Let's be clear, that one opinion you dismiss is from the chief Foreign exchange strategist at goldman sachs and a senior economist at IMF.

No I'm not dismissing any analysts however not all market analysts agree on this. Most that agree is western ones, and not even all in West agree. Like I said, early in this thread (post #624) I also put Moodys study on potential effect of the sanctions.

What I'm saying even from my previous two posts, everything is debateable now.

The ruble is working toward being a very thinly traded currency.

So, Ruble is always a very thinly traded currency. What's your point ? It is not indication that Russian central bank fixing the price. Like I said what they are doing is taking the Ruble from western market. Still open ruble on some market. However does not mean they are fixing the market.

Puting capital control does not mean fixing the price. It is more on shielding your market and currencies from outside intervention and speculations. During 1998 Asian Financial crisis, some Asians doing that. Some work, some don't. However it is not same with fixing the price.

That's a lot more than what you claim.

What more that what I claim ? I claim the negative analysts on Russian economy and the ones that more positive based on their predictions of mostly two things:
1. Abilities of Russian export to find alternatives market,
2. Abilities of Russian Import Subsititutions industry doing more Russifications or finding other sources for their domestic Industry running. This is for abilities of Russian domestic and consumers market running.

The ones that put negatives claim, based on Russian will fail on both issue. While the ones that more positives claim, put Russian will somewhat able to do both.

I also claim as Moodys study ot will take at least two years for Russian economy to adjust. So that's based on two even three months data assesment is just to early and resulted on debateable predictions.

All your data put also base on their assumptions on Russian exports. However it is only two months data, too early too tell whether Russian will be busted or rebound.

So what's new on your data claim ? Fell free though to believe Russian economy will busted and free fall. Personally I'm waiting more development before claiming anything. Like I said before I agree more on Moody's studies during first sanctions come. It will take two years period at least to see what's going to settle. Moody's also put EU economies that's also suffering on that period. Because both economies inter-connected, and both will need adjustment.

You can have bias on your personal feeling on this conflicts. However dismissing one opinions because it is not in line with your personal feeling, especially on this early stage of conflicts, it is just too early.

 

[tonnyc]

The idea that Russian economy will collapse is far-fetched. However, despite what some people on the Internet says, the sanctions aren't intended to make the Russian economy collapse. What it will do instead is erode their warmaking capability.

We have a historical example of a country that managed only very controlled exposure to the global market. Japan during their sakoku period (17th-19th century). This lasted about two hundred years and the Japanese economy and society were stable (there were some disturbances, but overall it was peaceful and stable) during that period. At the end of that period, the Shogunate's warmaking ability, while sufficient to quell internal dissent, was tiny compared to the West.

The way I see it, it doesn't matter what the ruble is trading at. But if Russia stops making Armatas and is stuck with T-64 and even T-55 out of storage, then the sanctions are successful. How's production of the S-400, the Su-35, and the Project 636.3 (Improved Kilo Class for the Russian Navy)? If they're proceeding with only minor delays, then the sanctions aren't working. If they're experienced major delays or even indefinite delays, then the sanctions are working.

 

[ngatimozart]

@Twain I would be very sure of the economic grounds that you are standing upon, because @Ananda is a Subject Matter Expert on it and he's our go to person for advice when we need it on economic and other matters. He's very highly respected by the Defence Professionals, senior members and Moderators, for his expertise in his field, general knowledge, wisdom and humility.

I've embarrassed him and I apologise for doing so, but he is deserving of the highest respect from all on here.

 

[Ananda]

However, despite what some people on the Internet says, the sanctions aren't intended to make the Russian economy collapse.

The one that putting collapsing Russian economy or as what they say hurt Putin regime as much as possible, are some of Western politicians. So, it can't be blame why some in media (mainstream or online), talking as colapsing Russian economy as the aim.

Remember many in Western Political establishment talking on hurting Russian economy for Russian to move to get rid Putin. So their aim is not just simply detered Russia to finance war in Ukraine, but also regime changes.

That's too much order to be hope for an economic sanctions. Historically economic sanctions very rarely ever happen to push regime changes especially in authocratic regime. Most of the times it is only solidifies their hold in power. We can see in Cuba, Iran, North Korea, Syria, or Venezualla. When the last time US lead economic sanctions resulted in regime changes, and why some US politicians still talking on that in media, is beyond me.

What it will do instead is erode their warmaking capability.

That I agree in the sense the parameter of what US and West aim with this sanctions has to be define clear in the begining. If not, what will happen is political embaresment.

embarrassed him and I apologise for doing so, but he is deserving of the highest respect from all on here.

Thanks Ngati, what I'm trying to point out is many of projections on Russian economy at this time around is too early to tell. Some of those analysts that talking on Russian GDP collapse also too far ranging. From -7% to -20%, -30% even -50%.

Some of them connected to my self and my work colleaugues, either through Linked In or even WA. Some of us even joke to them, and asking them what kind of prediction based you dare to put this early in war. Because even it is already 3 months, for economic projections is is still much too early to tell. Especially on economic distortion cause by political wrangling. Too many factors can move in.

In the end most of us in Market agree, as I have put on my post. It all back to two thing for projecting Russian economy this time around (due to sanctions). How much Russian can find new export market (replacing western market), and how far Russian can run consumers domestics without western Imports and Investment.

When we see enough trend on those two things, then we will know how far the Russian economies going to be hurt. Make no mistake Russian economies going to be hurt, the questions that's now still too early too tell, how far.

Just to add:
Western economies especialy EU will also be hurt, and just like with Russian ones, it is too early how far it will be. However it will be hurt.

All of this on the situations where Global Economies should begin to rebound after two years of Covid.

 

[John Fedup]

Agree about negative consequences for many countries. The billions in defence aid to Ukraine have an economic impact on the West. This money is needed elsewhere. A long term stalemate will just make things worse. The loss of grain production is ready having a negative impact on food production along with higher prices for oil. Globalization will likely see fractionation into 2 or 3 groups. Vlad’s cluster-f$&@ will probably end the era of cheap consumer goods due to a significant rise in trade protectionism.

 

[Twain]

@Twain I would be very sure of the economic grounds that you are standing upon, because @Ananda is a Subject Matter Expert on it and he's our go to person for advice when we need it on economic and other matters. He's very highly respected by the Defence Professionals, senior members and Moderators, for his expertise in his field, general knowledge, wisdom and humility.

I've embarrassed him and I apologise for doing so, but he is deserving of the highest respect from all on here.

OK, and Robin Brooks is one of the foremost experts in the world on the subject and I have a degree in economics from a top 30 University in the US. I'm old and haven't used that knowledge at work in years so everything isn't as fresh in my mind as it used to be but the basic parameters are set.

Some of those data points include:

Imports are obviously dropping drastically, that's well documented. Russia needs imports, it's an extraction based economy and needs imports just to meet basic demand for finished goods.

https://oec.world/en/profile/country/rus

Take a look at the link above this, what russia exports, almost all of it is extraction. they suck at manufacturing.

I'd like to see some data about non-military railyard activity as that and imports/exports are 2 key (among others) indicators of economic activity. Those are two of the factors banks use to estimate GDP and GDP growth rates since so many countries lie about those two statistics. I suspect that commercial railyard activity is way down, linking closely with import activity.

I have to go for now but I will try to expand more on this later when I have more time. There's a whole list of things that need to be covered in particular the export ban on integrated circuits, this may end up hurting russia more than any other sanction.