Russia - General Discussion.
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Ananda
The Bunker Group
Yes, but at that time also they are not producing much F-16 or F-15. That's why I put at current capacity US is not building new fighter up to couple hundreds annually. Nobody does under current global market demand and capacity. Can US build more, yes with increasing investment if the market demand justified that.
French is working hard to get to four Rafale a month. Which only justifiable for adding capacities due to recent export Rafale increases. That's the point, in related to Russian capabilities to produce fighters even under sanction. It is too early to see how many reduction on production that Rostec will churn with this Western Sanctions. However even under that limitation, Russian capacities to produce Fighters still seems surpasses only by either US or China.
Still even that (related to Ukraine MIC) it is much more than Ukraine capable off, even before the war. Let alone now. However even that still Ukraine MIC provide most of what Ukraine used on current war, plus ex USSR inventories they have.
Without their MIC, is their capabilities to fight this protracted attrition war will be enough ? Even with Western Supplies ? I'm very doubtfull for longer term. That's why your own MIC is still essential to support this kind of attrition war.
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F-15 is produced by a different company from F-16 & F-35, in different factories.
Last I heard, Boeing had spare capacity. Its problem is that nobody wants new F-18Es (but the US congress keeps buying it, & it's modernising some) & the USAF is only buying a relatively small number of F-15EX.
But don't forget exports & rebuilds. Qatar's F-15QAs are still being delivered, & old F-18Es & F-15s are being modernised. New F-16Vs are being built & old F-16s brought up to F-16V standad. Overall, US production of new fighters (not counting rebuilds) is over 200 per year, & there's capacity to build more.
Last I heard, Boeing had spare capacity. Its problem is that nobody wants new F-18Es (but the US congress keeps buying it, & it's modernising some) & the USAF is only buying a relatively small number of F-15EX.
But don't forget exports & rebuilds. Qatar's F-15QAs are still being delivered, & old F-18Es & F-15s are being modernised. New F-16Vs are being built & old F-16s brought up to F-16V standad. Overall, US production of new fighters (not counting rebuilds) is over 200 per year, & there's capacity to build more.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
When I talk on new fighters production is more to newly build fighters production capacity. I read the data on newly build Fighters (being put by Financial Institution specialise on Aerospace) between 2010-2020, which shown as newly build production annualy (including export). None of leading producers nation build more than 100 pc annualy except US and China. Even US this last decade also not reaching 200 pc annualy. This is the newly build and not included refurbished or rebuild.
This I suspect related both to Market demand and Production capacity. Yes all of them can jack up their capacity, but need further Investment and only be justified if there's demand on that (just like French done on Rafale production capacity due to latest run on export demand).
However on the topic related to this threas, Russian Fighters build capacity still put them on third place after US and China, at least based on last decade production run annualy. So It is just too early to put down much of Russian MIC capacity due to Western Sanctions. It is just too early to determine how well (or how bad) Russian going to adjust due to sanctions.
Then again sanctions due bites both ways.
This I suspect related both to Market demand and Production capacity. Yes all of them can jack up their capacity, but need further Investment and only be justified if there's demand on that (just like French done on Rafale production capacity due to latest run on export demand).
However on the topic related to this threas, Russian Fighters build capacity still put them on third place after US and China, at least based on last decade production run annualy. So It is just too early to put down much of Russian MIC capacity due to Western Sanctions. It is just too early to determine how well (or how bad) Russian going to adjust due to sanctions.
Then again sanctions due bites both ways.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
Citi says oil should be around $70 as demand drops and recession looms
Citi cut oil demand expectations by 1.4 million barrels for this year as fears of a recession took hold.
markets.businessinsider.com
Put it here, as incidently USD 70+ per barrel is the range of Russian discounted oil being taken by China and India.
Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
www.bloomberg.com
Even with that price Russia still getting healthy margin since it is predicted their production costs around less then USD 20 per barrel. Thus if the price of Global oil down to USD 70 per barrel, they still can comfortably sell at USD 50 per barrel.
Why Russia need to sell in discount ? Basically US and EU sanctions hit potential Russian buyers on Payment scheme and Transportation costs (with sanctions on Insurance). Russia try to counter transportation costs by providing transport using their own Tankers, however it is limiting potential buyers outside Eurasia region. Moreover there are still insurances that willing to cover Russian oils tankers, but off course with increase in premium. Thus to attract potential new customers, they have to provide atteactive discount to compensate.
With EU claim they will stop buying Russian hydrocarbon by end of year, Russia has to provide continous discount to China and India (as main buyers) plus others potential in Asia that want to buy relatively cheaper hydrocarbon (while EU taking more Hydrocarbon from Middle East or Africa). However this situation is still 'far' from US and EU politicians dream of taking out Russian hydrocarbon export market.
Put it here (as other prediction file to big to be attach in here) on IMF projection on Global Economy 2022 and 2023. See in 2022, IMF predict -8.5% contraction of Russian economy. This is far less then many "analysts" that hired by western mainstream media talking of -15%,-30% or even -50% GDP contractions scenarios in Russia.
Don't get me wrong, -8.5% contraction is still big. However some study on several Banks/Investment Banks shown the number can range from -5% to -10% contraction. This due to adjustment that Russian economy need to do on their trade, but on other hand shown what market see that Russia so far (relatively under this severe sanctions regime), manage to shield much of their domestic consumption activities.
Many those "analysts" that predict much more dire contractions in the mainstream media 'conviniently' forgot, that Russia after 2014 wave of Western sanctions more or less already relatively 'close' cycles economy. In sense many of domestics consumers goods already produces or imported using non Western sources. Ruble basically already a currency that trading on 'thin' market. Which's why is easier for Russian Central Bank to control Ruble market.
So yes, the sanctions hit them and hit them hard. However not as severe as many in West "hope". At least so far they are manage to shield by relying on other sources for production, either from domestic, or non West sources like China or India. Read somewhere that for sometimes Russian pharmaceuticals already increase import for raw materials from India.
This is what happen in increasingly Multipolar Globalisation. Collective West abilities to dictate flow of materials is not as big as 10 or 20 years ago. Collective West can still dictate huge factors on Global trades, but not as dominance as before.
Take a look on projection in 2023, especially in EU sides. The predictions that major EU economies will have smaller GDP growth compare to this year, while Russia still have contraction but smaller ones (from -8% this year to -2% next year). Shown Russia doing adjustment earlier then major EU. This is under assumptions Western sanctions still hold.
In fact some of the Investment Banks predict between smaller contractions or even small recoveries. Thus 2023 predictions for Russian economies range from -3% to +2%.
This is all result from adjustment process that EU and Russia has to do in "decoupling" themselves to each other. Russia will be more trying to coupling with East which potentially will not pay Russian commodities/products as much as West. While EU in the West has to adjust on more expensive commodities sources.
Just like I put many times in this thread: Sanctions is economic wars, and economic wars bites both sides.
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Ananda,
This is up your alley. Interesting take on things. In short Russia is in a bad position but should be able to weather the storm; at least for now. Sanctions have also - as is well known and understood - created a whole new set of problems/challenges for the West which like Russia will have to diversify.
''China is now Russia’s biggest trade partner, whereas prior to 2014 when Russia annexed Crimea and sanctions ensued, its biggest trade partner was Germany.''
''Similarly prior to 2014, Russia was one of the world’s biggest importers of food; today, it is a net exporter.''
''In the last three months, India has bought four times more crude oil from Moscow than it used to in the same period, becoming Russia’s top crude oil buyer''
''In the first few weeks, panic ensued as the public tried to acquire as much cash as possible from the banks and to buy goods as the price of imported items shot up. Consumer prices rose by 17.5 percent in April.''
''But the following month, the Russian rouble rebounded to 40 percent against the dollar compared to January, reaching a seven-year high and becoming the world’s best-performing currency in 2022.''
www.aljazeera.com
This is up your alley. Interesting take on things. In short Russia is in a bad position but should be able to weather the storm; at least for now. Sanctions have also - as is well known and understood - created a whole new set of problems/challenges for the West which like Russia will have to diversify.
''China is now Russia’s biggest trade partner, whereas prior to 2014 when Russia annexed Crimea and sanctions ensued, its biggest trade partner was Germany.''
''Similarly prior to 2014, Russia was one of the world’s biggest importers of food; today, it is a net exporter.''
''In the last three months, India has bought four times more crude oil from Moscow than it used to in the same period, becoming Russia’s top crude oil buyer''
''In the first few weeks, panic ensued as the public tried to acquire as much cash as possible from the banks and to buy goods as the price of imported items shot up. Consumer prices rose by 17.5 percent in April.''
''But the following month, the Russian rouble rebounded to 40 percent against the dollar compared to January, reaching a seven-year high and becoming the world’s best-performing currency in 2022.''
‘Shooting themselves in the foot’: Western sanctions on Russia
The more tension there is between Russia and the West, the higher the prices will be for commodities, analysts say.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
Western sanctions is hurting Russia, no mistake on that. However what I already put in this thread for sometimes basically are:
1. Very debeatable to claim it will cripple Russian economy and Export as Western Politicians and Western Maintream media claim in the begining of this sanctions/Trade War.
In fact one of them now already talking differently:
www.theguardian.com
Again it is still too early to really can gauge how far this sanctions will cost Russia. Still so far the data even projections from many large market players, is not going to be as much as Western leadership hopes when they first set this actions.
2. It will cost the West too. The cost is basically because both of West (especially EU) and Russia has to decoupling their economic relationship to each other. It is pure delusional when they first set this sanctions and give impression that West will only got 'small' costs to pay as many Western leadership try to downplay it.
Now they begin to admitt on the media, that the costs will be substantial enough. The Projections on EU 2022 and 2023 that IMF put, actually still 'mild' projection for EU. Some in market even already calculate potential contractions (negative growth) on some in EU, if they are too hasty changing energy and commodities sources from Russia, without securing reasonable deals from other suppliers.
This happen because everyone still climb back from COVID recession. Everything still fragile, thus this sanctions just hammering recovery process. If you put too much costs to your still recovering economies, the reverse effect will happen.
3. Still unless this War escalating toward direct NATO and Russia confrontations (as some hawkish politicians in West wants), this economic adjustment will be happen mostly in 2022-23 only. Moody's projection when this war happen already predict that. Most us in the market still believe that (including my self).
However what will come out after 2023 adjustment, will not be Business as ussual. China possition will be strengthen, thanks on this as one of the factor. This because many emerging market outside collective west increase their 'hedge' toward non western market. We can see even rich gulf kingdoms basically push back US and EU pressure to increase the hydrocarbon productions more as their demand.
This is personally I believe due to rising options on other 'polarity' outside US lead system. Some of them going to see they can 'spread' their global connectivities outside US lead influence only. Basically they become more assertive toward US and West.
Actually the trend already shown before this war, even before Covid. This war just fasten it. Like I put in this thread, some Western market players already warn US and EU leadership on the costs of 'weaponised' financial market system. Those system should be relatively neutral toward all market users. This to ensure the continuation of high level of confidence toward the system.
Playing with that, will increase 'untrust' factor especially from non Western users. This will increase chances of other 'option', which China is one of main benefactors on this. Something China already work hard to get, and now seems US increase that chances to China.
US and Collective West will still be major players and factors on Global Economy and Financial market. However the other options will potentially come out faster then predicted before.
1. Very debeatable to claim it will cripple Russian economy and Export as Western Politicians and Western Maintream media claim in the begining of this sanctions/Trade War.
In fact one of them now already talking differently:
Russia is winning the economic war - and Putin is no closer to withdrawing troops | Larry Elliott
The perverse effects of sanctions means rising fuel and food costs for the rest of the world – and fears are growing of a humanitarian catastrophe, says Larry Elliott, the Guardian’s economics editor
www.theguardian.com
Again it is still too early to really can gauge how far this sanctions will cost Russia. Still so far the data even projections from many large market players, is not going to be as much as Western leadership hopes when they first set this actions.
2. It will cost the West too. The cost is basically because both of West (especially EU) and Russia has to decoupling their economic relationship to each other. It is pure delusional when they first set this sanctions and give impression that West will only got 'small' costs to pay as many Western leadership try to downplay it.
Now they begin to admitt on the media, that the costs will be substantial enough. The Projections on EU 2022 and 2023 that IMF put, actually still 'mild' projection for EU. Some in market even already calculate potential contractions (negative growth) on some in EU, if they are too hasty changing energy and commodities sources from Russia, without securing reasonable deals from other suppliers.
This happen because everyone still climb back from COVID recession. Everything still fragile, thus this sanctions just hammering recovery process. If you put too much costs to your still recovering economies, the reverse effect will happen.
3. Still unless this War escalating toward direct NATO and Russia confrontations (as some hawkish politicians in West wants), this economic adjustment will be happen mostly in 2022-23 only. Moody's projection when this war happen already predict that. Most us in the market still believe that (including my self).
However what will come out after 2023 adjustment, will not be Business as ussual. China possition will be strengthen, thanks on this as one of the factor. This because many emerging market outside collective west increase their 'hedge' toward non western market. We can see even rich gulf kingdoms basically push back US and EU pressure to increase the hydrocarbon productions more as their demand.
This is personally I believe due to rising options on other 'polarity' outside US lead system. Some of them going to see they can 'spread' their global connectivities outside US lead influence only. Basically they become more assertive toward US and West.
Actually the trend already shown before this war, even before Covid. This war just fasten it. Like I put in this thread, some Western market players already warn US and EU leadership on the costs of 'weaponised' financial market system. Those system should be relatively neutral toward all market users. This to ensure the continuation of high level of confidence toward the system.
Playing with that, will increase 'untrust' factor especially from non Western users. This will increase chances of other 'option', which China is one of main benefactors on this. Something China already work hard to get, and now seems US increase that chances to China.
US and Collective West will still be major players and factors on Global Economy and Financial market. However the other options will potentially come out faster then predicted before.
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The difference between the US and France is the US lines are already built and set up to larger scale production. The reason for not buying as many aircraft in the 2010-20 period per your source simply comes down to the fact many of them were/are waiting for the F-35 and saw little to no need to invest large amounts of capital in what was seen as outdated aircraft. France on the other hand is a smaller player so they had their line set up to suit their needs, which with exports turned out to be an under investment. But the US that is not the case, the SH/Growler line has a claimed capacity of 84 aircraft per a year, the F-35 line is ramping up to 156 a year, The F-15's with LRP will be going to 24 a year for US orders not counting what other capacity they can ramp up with all the tooling still retained from the F-16 line. They might noght have bought that much in any given year but the investments in the past and present have been made in the sites and industry that they still retain the capability to be building 300+ fixed wing combat aircraft annually.
Where Russia will suffer is in chips. Modern aircraft require a lot of high end chips which Russian industry is just not yet good enough to do at home.
If you dont mind me asking where did you get the under $20 a barrel figure from? According to Russian Oil Production Among Most Expensive in World - The Moscow Times Russia is meant to be one of the highest break even oil producers with costs per a barrel in 2019 put at $42 onshore (Though that includes various taxes which article explains Russia is one of the most expensive for) though in the article Rosstat a Russian statistics agency? says exluding these taxes the cost per a barrel would be around $32....
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
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I don't trust articles like this one. I don't think they reflect an accurate and objective assessment. Rather I think they're a call to action. In other words the intention behind the article is to push public opinion in the direction of going after Russia more actively because current sanctions are not enough. The concept of "winning" presumes goals and intentions. It's plausible that Russian political leadership is going to achieve their near-term objectives economically speaking, assuming they set their aims modestly enough. But in the medium term Russia will have huge problems. This is the fourth time in 20 years that the Russian economy takes a setback and will spend it's growth efforts recovering and readjusting instead of continuing growth. It's not a good situation.Western sanctions is hurting Russia, no mistake on that. However what I already put in this thread for sometimes basically are:
1. Very debeatable to claim it will cripple Russian economy and Export as Western Politicians and Western Maintream media claim in the begining of this sanctions/Trade War.
In fact one of them now already talking differently:
Russia is winning the economic war - and Putin is no closer to withdrawing troops | Larry Elliott
The perverse effects of sanctions means rising fuel and food costs for the rest of the world – and fears are growing of a humanitarian catastrophe, says Larry Elliott, the Guardian’s economics editor
Again it is still too early to really can gauge how far this sanctions will cost Russia. Still so far the data even projections from many large market players, is not going to be as much as Western leadership hopes when they first set this actions.
2. It will cost the West too. The cost is basically because both of West (especially EU) and Russia has to decoupling their economic relationship to each other. It is pure delusional when they first set this sanctions and give impression that West will only got 'small' costs to pay as many Western leadership try to downplay it.
Now they begin to admitt on the media, that the costs will be substantial enough. The Projections on EU 2022 and 2023 that IMF put, actually still 'mild' projection for EU. Some in market even already calculate potential contractions (negative growth) on some in EU, if they are too hasty changing energy and commodities sources from Russia, without securing reasonable deals from other suppliers.
This happen because everyone still climb back from COVID recession. Everything still fragile, thus this sanctions just hammering recovery process. If you put too much costs to your still recovering economies, the reverse effect will happen.
3. Still unless this War escalating toward direct NATO and Russia confrontations (as some hawkish politicians in West wants), this economic adjustment will be happen mostly in 2022-23 only. Moody's projection when this war happen already predict that. Most us in the market still believe that (including my self).
However what will come out after 2023 adjustment, will not be Business as ussual. China possition will be strengthen, thanks on this as one of the factor. This because many emerging market outside collective west increase their 'hedge' toward non western market. We can see even rich gulf kingdoms basically push back US and EU pressure to increase the hydrocarbon productions more as their demand.
This is personally I believe due to rising options on other 'polarity' outside US lead system. Some of them going to see they can 'spread' their global connectivities outside US lead influence only. Basically they become more assertive toward US and West.
Actually the trend already shown before this war, even before Covid. This war just fasten it. Like I put in this thread, some Western market players already warn US and EU leadership on the costs of 'weaponised' financial market system. Those system should be relatively neutral toward all market users. This to ensure the continuation of high level of confidence toward the system.
Playing with that, will increase 'untrust' factor especially from non Western users. This will increase chances of other 'option', which China is one of main benefactors on this. Something China already work hard to get, and now seems US increase that chances to China.
US and Collective West will still be major players and factors on Global Economy and Financial market. However the other options will potentially come out faster then predicted before.
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
$32 a barrel cost, hard to beat. Wonder where the price will be when electric vehicles take over the market?
What I think many are missing is Russia's play on the ruble vs dollar field. I think they prepared a thorough monetary plan for this war's duration and afterward. The ruble has an intrinsic value backed up by Russia's material wealth they are willing to export, that is oil, gas, grain, metals, etc. By blocking Russia's currency reserves, the move Russia could foresee, the West gave Russia a moral high ground to demand payment in rubles or else stop gas exports. This happens while Russia is ready to redirect its excess gas exports in the form of LNG elsewhere. They also start redirecting oil exports. All this gives Russia the moral high ground they need in order to transition payment systems with their remaining trading partners to barter-like direct exchange, bypassing the dollar and the entire Western financial system. This insulates at least to some extent the ruble and the Russian economy from the negative impacts of sanctions.
Some negative impacts on the Russian economy that I do see are their shrinking share in the oil market, as Saudi Arabia and OPEC + are stepping in to increase oil production, which will come at the expense of Russia's market share. Russia also had to give discounts to neutral countries such as India in order for them to switch suppliers.
Some negative impacts on the Russian economy that I do see are their shrinking share in the oil market, as Saudi Arabia and OPEC + are stepping in to increase oil production, which will come at the expense of Russia's market share. Russia also had to give discounts to neutral countries such as India in order for them to switch suppliers.
I feel that the people saying that the sanctions hurt the West too conveniently missed the relative economic sizes of the EU and Russia. Just as Russia is a military behemoth when compared to Ukraine, the EU is an economic behemoth compared to Russia.
Russia's GDP in 2021 was $1.710 trillion (nominal).
The European Union's in 2020 was $15.29 trillion. (They don't have the 2021 data yet.)
If sanctions hurt both the EU and Russia by, say, $200 billion each, then Russia just lost 11% of their GDP while the EU lost 1.3% of theirs. The EU can weather the economic damage much better than Russia. Already Russia's own Ministry of Economic Development forecast a 7.8% GDP contraction for 2022. Meanwhile, EU forecasted a 2.7% growth in 2022.
This is just the EU. The US has a $20 trillion GDP. UK's $2.7 trillion. Collectively, to the West the cost of the sanctions is a major cost but is something that can be borne with effort while still achieving a respectable growth. To Russia, a 7.8% GDP contraction is not sustainable.
But doesn't Ukraine hurts more? Well yes. But Ukraine is hurt from the war, not sanctions, and we're talking about the effect of sanctions now. Besides, if the West continue sending money and stuff to Ukraine then Ukraine's domestic economy will be propped up by the aid.
Russia's GDP in 2021 was $1.710 trillion (nominal).
The European Union's in 2020 was $15.29 trillion. (They don't have the 2021 data yet.)
If sanctions hurt both the EU and Russia by, say, $200 billion each, then Russia just lost 11% of their GDP while the EU lost 1.3% of theirs. The EU can weather the economic damage much better than Russia. Already Russia's own Ministry of Economic Development forecast a 7.8% GDP contraction for 2022. Meanwhile, EU forecasted a 2.7% growth in 2022.
This is just the EU. The US has a $20 trillion GDP. UK's $2.7 trillion. Collectively, to the West the cost of the sanctions is a major cost but is something that can be borne with effort while still achieving a respectable growth. To Russia, a 7.8% GDP contraction is not sustainable.
But doesn't Ukraine hurts more? Well yes. But Ukraine is hurt from the war, not sanctions, and we're talking about the effect of sanctions now. Besides, if the West continue sending money and stuff to Ukraine then Ukraine's domestic economy will be propped up by the aid.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
Barrel Breakdown
The cost of producing a barrel of oil and gas varies widely across the world, setting up winners and losers as the price of crude fluctuates at historically low levels.
This graphics shown the average cost of production. Yes some of the newer oil field in Russia can costs more than that. However many Russian oil fields already matures ones. Means the costs of production much lower. On the other hand mature oil fields means the production capacity will be down.
New Oil fields means new Investments thus raise overall costs. That's why for Russian their new Investment in Artic oil fields benefits from high oil prices. Russian aknowledge their cost of productions range from USD 15 - USD 40+. However as the chart put, the average still around USD 20, means the lower range costs still represent most of their existing fields.
The chart shown also why the Gulf Kingdoms can still manage profitable oil operations when the prices goes down few years ago. This is where many North American Shale hydrocarbons scaling down production.
This is also why many producers reluctant to increase their production capacity. As they are still wait to see how sustainable the current price trend and will wait for how new price equilibrium will settle.
Agree on that. I put this article just shown how Western mainstream media pundits begin to change their call. The actions also can be to prepare the publics on the costs of sanctions that will hit their wallets.
Those pundits is kind of people that basically say before; lets sanctions Russia to the death and west can handle the costs because our economy is much larger then Russia.
However as I put this on my previous post, those who talk like that, conveniently forgot Western economy just begin on recovery track from COVID. It is simple economy, when you are recovering don't add another 'unexpected' costs. This Russian sanctions costs is the unexpected cost during recovery.
The way I see it, the western mainstream media including most of their ruling politicians just preparing their public for further costs ahead of this sanctions. That's why IMF projection chart that I put shown 2023, especially in some major economy in EU, the growth projection is actually lower than 2022. This derive on the costs of decoupling to Russia.
Yes, Russian economy is much smaller to EU (nominal or PPP based). The sanctions cost should be miniscule 'if' the Russian export to EU is not energy. Energy supplier is not something that easy to replace. That's why several Investment Banks shown potential recession on EU, if they are hastely stop Russian hydrocarbon export without securing other suppliers that provide only reasonable costs increase.
The timing on West (especially EU) on doing wide range sanction to Russia has to be calculated on doing the projection on EU/West costs. If this happen during the normal era, then the effect will be much smaller. However when you are just recovering from COVID recession, where many of your economics machines also begin to recover from two years under capacities conditions, increase costs especially as essentials as costs of energy is something that will hit you more.
Without this sanctions, recovery from COVID already increase the inflationary pressures. The populations begin to move (from demand side), while the producers has to pump out new capacities (from supply sides) to catch up from their undercapacities during COVID. This will profide inflationary push.
This sanctions again provide unexpected cost to this still 'fragile' recovery. Which those who support this wide range sanctions 'conveniently' forgot to mention. The market knows well, that's why some of the market players already warn Western Politicians. However got deaf ears because they only want to hear their own analysts (which many become pundits in mainstearm media).
How much it is going to costs Russia and the West? Well it is still open to see. However Russia is authoraterian regime, and all US lead sanctions to authoretherian regime shown so far, they are not working much in pushing them out.
West on other hand are democratics regimes, that has to prepared paying up their constinuences much sooner on any changes, then authoretarian regimes. That's why I see this kind of changing tones from some Western Mainstream media (thus politicians) actually to prepare their publics to beared with the additional costs on punishing Russia and supporting Ukraine.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
Rostec already have their own Chips manufacturing facilities. Off course it will not be as modern as Taiwanese or ROK ones, but those chips (according to Rostec) going to full fill their strategic needs. The way I read it, it will be for their MIC as main customers.
For the rest of their economy, lets see how China semiconductor can somewhat replace Taiwan and ROK semiconductors.
I put my previous post on the context on answering comments on Russian fighters manufacturing capacities. My points is basically current fighthers capacities even from main producers like US and China only in hundreds (on average less then two hundreds) new fighters annualy. Thus if Russia still can produce tens of new fighters annualy, it is not too bad comparing to other fighters producers outside US and China.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
Putin clearly want to use this to enhance Russian diplomatic stake in Africa. Senegal as current head of African Union clearly want to have the grain moving again, and Putin used this to blame Western sanctions as creating problem on grain trade moving.
It is part of Diplomatics War between Collective West and Russia. However West must be carefull on not loosing their clout in Africa. China already increase their influence there, and now together with Russia they can really provide Africa with non western options.
Asia is where most emerging markets comes presently, however Africa is the future emerging markets. Don't underestimate Africa.
The combination of the war in Ukraine together with Western sanctions have ripple effects that long term can create a lot of issues for Russian economy. Almost 4 million left Russia during the first thee months of 2022. In March, Sergei Plugotarenko, head of the Russian Association for Electronic Communications, a non-profit group, said that up to 70,000 IT professionals emigrated since the start of the “special operation” in Ukraine. I suspect this brain drain will make it harder for Putin to develop indigenous electronics and software systems
‘Criminal adventure’: Ukraine war fuels Russia’s brain drain | Russia-Ukraine war News | Al Jazeera
More about the challenges Russia will face in developing their own electronics: Can Russia Rebuild Its Tech Sector with China’s Help? - War on the Rocks
‘Criminal adventure’: Ukraine war fuels Russia’s brain drain | Russia-Ukraine war News | Al Jazeera
More about the challenges Russia will face in developing their own electronics: Can Russia Rebuild Its Tech Sector with China’s Help? - War on the Rocks
Rock the kasbah
Active Member
Putin’s War Going ‘According to Plan,’ Russians Joke, and Soon the Army will be Defending Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts
Paul Goble Staunton, May 20 – A new Russian anecdote puts its own spin on the Kremlin’s insistence that Putin’s war in Ukraine...
windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com
Those who want the USSR back should be celebrating: They now have censorship, a sick old man in power, 99 percent approve of him, and Russian soldiers are dying in a war abroad. They only have to wait for ration coupons, Yugoslav boots once every six months, and then they can put crystal in the cabinet and nail a carpet to the wall.
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A pretty silly argument. The people who want the USSR back generally want the 0% homelessness, full employment, and social guarantees that came with it. It probably wouldn't hurt to expropriate the wealth of Russia's ruling elites either, and maybe put it to work for the benefit of the country (though this is of course highly unlikely, even if Russia's current government were to fall, most of the money would probably disppear through various shady financial arrangements). Russia currently has a robber-baron elite that has no interest in bringing back the Soviet Union. What they want is a reborn Russian empire where they are the de-facto nobles. They will happily use images of the Soviet past and take credit for the achievements (that were the achievements of far more then just Russia mind you) while staying far away from the political-economic ideology that built Soviet society. In the Soviet Union Stalin's sons fought on the front lines of WWII. Are the children of Russia's current elite on the front line? Or are they busy bribing their way out of the draft, and going to school in prestigious western universities?There is quite a few quote worthy paragraphs in this lot. Apologies if it steps on any toes but a little laughter every now and thenPutin’s War Going ‘According to Plan,’ Russians Joke, and Soon the Army will be Defending Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts
Paul Goble Staunton, May 20 – A new Russian anecdote puts its own spin on the Kremlin’s insistence that Putin’s war in Ukraine...
Those who want the USSR back should be celebrating: They now have censorship, a sick old man in power, 99 percent approve of him, and Russian soldiers are dying in a war abroad. They only have to wait for ration coupons, Yugoslav boots once every six months, and then they can put crystal in the cabinet and nail a carpet to the wall.
A Telegraph editorial reprinted by Stuff on Putin's possible future. Mind you from a philosophy POV all futures are possible, but is Putin's future being determined now behind his back? How secure is his future as top dog? I am sure many of us would love to know that but what machinations if any, that are going on behind the closed doors in the Kremlin, are anybody's guess. I am sure that Nietzsche feel at home there at the moment.
Why Vladimir Putin’s future looks increasingly uncertain | Stuff.co.nz
Why Vladimir Putin’s future looks increasingly uncertain | Stuff.co.nz