Ananda
The Bunker Group
I'm not talking about the money. I'm talking on economics survival for some developing nations due to this changes in market. Read carefully.
Russia - General Discussion.
- Thread starter Feanor
- Start date
Dead Money
Member
That's true Rock for a wealthy nation like ours, and for Australia I agree,Ananda
In the footsteps of Russian soldiers. ‘You could die in the city, or you could die on the road’ (I)
As Russians withdrew, people who had fled returned. They found their towns destroyed, their loved ones hiding in basemen...www.lrt.lt
I know you're really good at business
But sometimes you have to take a step back
And say this is unacceptable
Not today and not my kids or grandkids
F@@K the money
But for fungible commodities like coal and oil, unless the west has a way to meet market demand without customers having to resort to Russian commodities at or near market price - there is always someone somewhere in the world willing to buy them at a discount. It's easy for those with money (Mainly the west) to just outbid the competition and continue on as normal at a slight cost hit - but for poorer nations they need those resources to continue with life as they know it.
The Chinese found this out when they tried to block Australian coal recently - the price of Coal went up while the trade market adjusted, Australia still got to sell coal to other parties. Trade restrictions don't always have the effect the restricting nation wants them to.
The West has put in place fantastic and effective import and financial sanctions against Russia. But it's not in a position of shutting down Russian commodity exports until it has more countries onboard - as long as Russia can find alternate trade partners, these actions can feel good but are of limited value, if the intent is to harm the Russian economy.
Embargo Definition Basics and types of embargoes
Ananda
The Bunker Group
Russia's debt default will be one of the hardest in history to resolve and could see the US seize the central bank's assets, economist says
The US seized Afghanistan's central bank reserves and could do it again with Russia, according to the consultancy Oxford Economics.
www.businessinsider.com
This is going to be interesting. Knowing potentially US and Allies that already froze Russian Central Bank assets in their Banking environment, will confiscated them in the end. Could Russia will let go the assets to pay all the obligations from Sovereign Bonds, to corporate debt (including aircraft leasing).
Russia will not going to pay Ukranian reconstruction (unless in the area under their and their proxy control). So the only possible way the Ukranian got something from Russia, will be through those frozen assets. Which at the same time going to be ask by Western creditors. This could be interesting political dilema for US and Allies. Their Creditors or Ukranian.
I suspect Russia basically knows well those frozen assets most likely will never back to them.
Sandhi Yudha
Well-Known Member
Indonesia doesn't see a reason to boycott or kick out Russia from the G20. Also the G20-meeting in Bali will be held and not cancelled.
How relevant is Alexander Dugin's worldview/philosophy to Putin/Special Operation Z? Besides the geopolitics, he has been claiming that the Ukraine is the "pivot point" for Russian history, for it remake itself anew.
Is this view- that considerable numbers of Russians reject the West and now want to make a "break" from it actually exist?
Is this view- that considerable numbers of Russians reject the West and now want to make a "break" from it actually exist?
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RubiconNZ
The Wanderer
Liz Truss pushes for more defence spending, vowing to ‘double down’ on military aid to Ukraine
Foreign Secretary says 'generation of underinvestment' in the West has contributed to Russian invasion
Apologies for the paywall, but I find it particularly interesting when a Foreign Secretary is calling for such resolve.
Sky News did a near cc of the article so please find below…
Ukraine war: West must prepare for 'long haul' and allies must increase defence spending, Liz Truss to warn
The foreign secretary will say Ukraine's fate "remains in the balance" and she will argue the war needs to be a catalyst for change in the way that global security works.
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It seems Indonesia is going to invite Ukraine to the G20 summit after all... It's clearly a compromise to inviting Putin to the summit, despite US and her allies protest. One thing for certain though, this year's summit could actually be more pivotal than even Indonesia themselves could anticipate.
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
Will Putin actually attend? If he does then he believes there is no internal threat to his leadership, sort of the opposite impression given by his photo ops sitting alone at long tables.
Who knows? It's many months away and a lot can happen from now till then. Not going might send the wrong message or signals so he might end up going. On the long table here was a pic a few days ago showing him with a much smaller table in much closer proximity to someone else.
He himself said he will attend. If he ended up cancelling, would that not be perceived as weakness? Or at the very least, akin to swallowing his own word.
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John Fedup
The Bunker Group
Perhaps outside if Russia some would conclude his absence as weakness, inside Russia, not likely as he would spin his presence protecting Mother Russia is more important than the G20.
Putin has more to gain by going. Not going would imply that contrary to the Russian narrative things are not going well and that he has to stay at home because of the war situation, plus the fact that it would be an acknowledgement that his presence there is not wanted by other countries. This however leads to.tbe question of whether other leaders will attend if Putin is there; if they don't the summit will be merely symbolic and pointless.
It's hard to.predict however how things will.pan out as its still months away; a lot can occur in the next few months. Let's hope that things don't reach a point where the summit has to be cancelled be cause of open hostilities between NATO.and Russia. Things can easily out of control; the unthinkable is always a possibility and would effect everyone; even those of us who don't live in Europe and North America.
We've had two devastating World Wars which started in Europe [actually three if we include the 7 Years/French Indian war which was fought around the world]; let's hope we don't have another.
It's hard to.predict however how things will.pan out as its still months away; a lot can occur in the next few months. Let's hope that things don't reach a point where the summit has to be cancelled be cause of open hostilities between NATO.and Russia. Things can easily out of control; the unthinkable is always a possibility and would effect everyone; even those of us who don't live in Europe and North America.
We've had two devastating World Wars which started in Europe [actually three if we include the 7 Years/French Indian war which was fought around the world]; let's hope we don't have another.
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Ananda
The Bunker Group
US attorney general says money from Russian oligarchs' seized assets should go 'directly to Ukraine'
Attorney General Merrick Garland said he expects requests for legislative changes to make it easier to seize sanctioned Russian oligarchs' assets.
www.businessinsider.com
Just I have put in previous Post, it is clear that US politics going to seize overseas fund from Russian central bank and from Oligarch confiscated assets as part of payment to Ukraine. However I do suspect much of it will be used to pay Russian Western creditors.
If that happen and in some way it is actually kind be seen as settlement and decoupling from both economies to each other. Something that perhaps can be seen as part of multipolar globalisation of the future.
Biden already say that he wants Russia out of G20, that he will not going to be seen in same room with Putin. However he also said that if Indonesia still invite Russia, then Ukraine should be too.
President Biden Wants Ukraine To Be Invited If Russia Is Allowed, The Indonesian Ministry Of Foreign Affairs Will Investigate
The Indonesian Ministry of Foreign Affairs will study developments related to the planned presence of Russia and President Vladimir Putin at the G20 Summit in Bali at the end of October.
voi.id
This clearly going to make this year G20 meeting will be very political divide. Usually countries that being invite to G20 meeting in the past, were more on countries that shown strong emerging progress (example Vietnam). Ukraine even before the war certaintly can not be seen as emerging economics progress.
So it will be interesting photo sessions. Perhaps will shown how the future multipolar global economies going to be make.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
Well this is one of memes that circulate about next G20 meeting. Some will not like that meme, some will find it humouris, some like me will find it as irony. Irony cause the G20 meeting basically going to be sideline from talking on Global Economy toward Geopolitics rivalry.
Makes me wonders if this kind of grouping will still be relevant on future Global economies that seems going to be Multipolar divide. Perhaps it will be shown whether multipolar world still can be connected or become more segmented.
A very interesting article by Andrew Goodman, describing his interactions with Putin going back to 1990, his reading of Putin's character and personality. It explains a lot. Putin is basically a nationalist mafia boss. Putin the Planner - War on the Rocks
I think this analysis is quite spot-on. Putin had in his plans for quite some time to act against Ukraine, he just had to find the right moment.
This does indeed sound ominous. On the other hand, they way things are going from bad to worse for Russia it is hard to see how Putin will be able to rebuild and try again later. The West has decided: Russia cannot be allowed to launch such wars in the future. All the documented war crimes in Ukraine certainly serves as an extra motivation to make sure Russia will not be able to launch such wars of aggression again in the future: Pentagon chief’s Russia remarks show shift in US’s declared aims in Ukraine | Ukraine | The Guardian
Ananda
The Bunker Group
Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
www.bloomberg.com
Some call it black mail, some call it consequences of Western sanctions, but some just call it way to make business. In the end, it is back to supply and demamd.
or it's more along the lines of "You didn't fire me, I quit you long ago".
If you take a look at Alexander Dugin's (Putin's Brain/Putin's Philosopher/Putin's advisor) Operation Z article I posted earlier, plus some of his many public talks and published books, including "Foundations of Geopolitics" (allegedly taught in Russian military schools) it is not about embracing the western capitalist liberal mindset and liberal values.
It is about a final rejection of the Russia-West project since the fall of the Soviet Union, and Operation Z as the pivot point away from Western values and western "spirtuality", and back towards a traditional Russian culture. So the 'sanctions' are a good thing, as the degenerate foreign influences have left. Russia's GDP per capita is about 10K dollars, Russia- and Putin's old moves to reconnect with the West hasn't exactly worked out all that well. One of the darker aspects of Dugin's message, and what he doesn't mention is that it would be necessary for Russia to rebuild the old Soviet army (huge increase in defense expenditures, to Soviet levels) and fundamentally reorient its economy to achieve these geopolitical aims.
I do not believe that Putin (or the Russian army for that matter) is an idiot like the Western media/instant experts like journalists/talking heads/etc. claim them to be. They just have a very different set of priorities. I have difficulty believing for instance that Putin did not think that there was a possibility that "Have my cake and eat it too Operation Z" could flop and Russia would have to declare war on Ukraine. However it is significant that the Russian leadership really, really does not want to use conscripts. Perhaps the Russian youth have become too westernized and distant from the Soviet age.
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Rock the kasbah
Active Member
Hidden Truths Of The Ukraine War: Drunk Russian Soldiers, Germany’s Real Problem, Sabotage Inside Russia
Moscow will always be free to hurl missiles from afar. Solution? Increase sabotage within Russia and weaken Putin’s system of internal command and control.
www.forbes.com
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