The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

cdxbow

Well-Known Member
US aid may help, but it may also have been Ukrainian Bayraktars. Some were specifically purchased for the Ukrainian navy, and there was a Russian report of a 11356 report shooting one down over the Black Sea. The reports I'm seeing also say it sank after munitions cooked off, and the crew evacuated.
It's a huge loss however it happened. The rumour mill online is going crazy about it:
- that only 54 crew survived the Moskva sinking - Russian flagship cruiser MOSKVA hit by missiles. Sank. – Maritime Bulletin
- unconfirmed reports Admiral Igor Osipov Commander of the Black Sea Fleet has been arrested T E Q U I L A on Twitter: "Вслед за военным кораблем направился главком ЧФ. Арестован командующий Черноморским флотом ВС РФ адмирал Игорь Осипов ИноСМИ, 14.04.2022 https://t.co/0HYp6Mms3p" / Twitter
- Sergei Shoigu is in ICU after having a 'heart attack', I will point out this is his second alleged cardiac event since the war started Putin's defence minister Sergei Shoigu has had 'massive heart attack' Though if anyone in the world was going to have a 'heart attack' about the prosecution of the war, he'd be the one.
 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
1. Austrian Armed Forces debrief on why Ukraine is succeeding in its delay missions. The gold standard for a proper discussion on TTPs employed.

2. Russians, their own worse enemy. Their bridging engineers did the work but a single driver delays the movement of a whole convoy.

3. The upcoming fight in the Donbas it will be different than what occurred in Kyiv, as the terrain is different (which will allow for the Ukraine Army greater freedom of movement off road that is supported by fires). The Russians will tend to stay road bound, due to poor training and leadership that lacks of terrain familiarity.
 
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OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Steinmeier is a senior figure of the SPD. As foreign minister he pushed for closer ties with russia but he also quite recently admited publicly that this was a mistake. The insult by kiev is felt, a lot of influential SPD politicians are alienanted and angry.

I don't know how this will work out in the court of public opinion but it sure was not the best bet to speed up the process.
Thanks for sharing your view.

Interesting SPD numbers — 66% wants Olaf Scholz to send heavy weapons. The party leaders are misreading or ignoring their SPD supporters.

I keep hearing that Germany is being criticized for hesitating over whether to provide heavy weapons to Ukraine. This sadly is sharpening tensions within Chancellor Olaf Scholz's coalition government, with some politicians urging additional weapons deliveries.

Got to love the quote: “Stop stepping on the brakes.”
 
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cdxbow

Well-Known Member
Some interesting allegations in this article: Massive heart attack not from natural causes
Not sure anyone can know it's not from natural causes unless some toxicological studies are done, most poisons that affect the heart cause a cardiac arrhythmia, whereas the phrase 'heart attack' in general use, is taken to mean an occlusion of a coronary artery and some death of heart muscle, which can in turn, lead to a cardiac arrhythmia, cardiac arrest or heart failure.
 

Aerojoe

Member
Not sure anyone can know it's not from natural causes unless some toxicological studies are done, most poisons that affect the heart cause a cardiac arrhythmia, whereas the phrase 'heart attack' in general use, is taken to mean an occlusion of a coronary artery and some death of heart muscle, which can in turn, lead to a cardiac arrhythmia, cardiac arrest or heart failure.
Regardless of whether or not true the existence of rumours that his demise could have been foul play will have a chilling effect on others. Not the sort of environment that encourages open strategic conversation necessary to turn the current situation around for Russian forces and the Russian economy.
 

tonnyc

Well-Known Member
Could be a nice alternative (or addition) to the C-705 Reverse Engineering Project. It might even be cheaper in cost and effort than trying to reverse engineer a Chinese missile.
I have seen the video of a successful test firing of the Indonesian Navy's C-705. Hits the target ship, didn't do much damage. It took a follow-up torpedo hit to sink the target ship. If the Ukrainian Neptune can sink a 12,000 tonnes ship I would welcome its addition.

Ukraine has a lot of human capital with the skills to manufacture missile systems and such, could offering technical expertise and IP to nations that want to start making ATGMS, SHORADS, AshMs, be a good way to raise quick cash, further supplies and strenghten relationships? Like if they offer to send engineers and IP to Indonesia to make the Neptunes in exchange for Cash and an offshore plant for missile manufacture, since their factories are being bombed?
In such a scenario I believe Indonesia will pay cash. The question about making missiles for Ukraine is going to be irrelevant. It will take Indonesia years to set up the facility, and by the time it's ready the war would have been settled. The money is what Ukraine will want. Either to finance the current war or to finance the rebuilding effort later.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
On that I agree on, seems also Russia going to put much effort to finish on plan 12 22350M. Even that going to put much strain on their yard building capacities. I put the Lider articles on the context why they have to put up with large Sovyet era Destroyers and Cruisers much longger then initially plan.

View attachment 49111

Also one thing to consider. This I have put it before, as seems some media comentators in Western media forgot to take count on how massive Russian Inland Waterway systems. Some comentators in Western mainstream media still think to push Turkey to cut off Bosporus access, as the only way for Russia to beef up their effort to supply Black Sea Fleet.

Assides their cruisers and destroyers practically their Frigates and Corvettes can use that waterways (base on the dimensions of the locks). Thus maintain Frigates and Corvettes mix of fleet actually beneficials for their Surface Ships movement between Northern, Baltic, Black Sea and Caspian Sea flotillas.

Add:
Look at the map, and can be seen why for Russia strategic needs, they want to control all shores of Sea of Azov. So unless Ukranian can conduct miracle counter offensive from their Army in Donbas, Russia will keept Sea Azov either through their 'puppet' Republics or direct control.
I think that the inland waterways are sufficient for one of the remaining cruisers to sail from the north down through to the Sea of Azov. If this is indeed the case, then the only way that the Ukrainians can prevent it is to destroy one or two locks.
I'm aware of these numbers but I expected Russia would be able (and willing) to mobilize enough troops to conquer a city so close to its own border early in the war, especially with the advantage of surprise (?), an advantage that is now gone of course. So either Russia hadn't mobilized enough troops or Kharkiv had no priority to them? But now the defenders are awaiting them and likely made fortifications, I guess the outcome will be the same as in Kyiv?

BTW speaking about numbers, I have read that an invader should outnumber the enemy about 3 times, Russia has only 3.5 times the population of Ukraine, if Ukraine would mobilize any able man (and maybe woman), Russia would have to mobilize its entire population to subdue Ukraine if you can calculate like that. Ukraine, Poland and Germany together have a slightly higher population as Russia and Russia's demography is as bad as most European countries.
Russia can't fully mobilise its population and go on a full war footing. Putin has said that the invasion of Ukraine is a Special Military Operation, not a full blown war. Can't have the Great Leader proven wrong, or admit that he's not a strategic or tactical genius and made a mistake.
Some interesting allegations in this article: Massive heart attack not from natural causes
It's the Daily Mail so suspect from the start. They never let the truth stand in the way of a story. I would suspect that the heart attack if it occurred may have occurred around the time of death, if he is indeed dead. His death certificate will cite natural causes, which it will be, but those cause will be induced and / or accelerated in their advancement.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
I have seen the video of a successful test firing of the Indonesian Navy's C-705. Hits the target ship, didn't do much damage. It took a follow-up torpedo hit to sink the target ship. If the Ukrainian Neptune can sink a 12,000 tonnes ship I wouwld welcome its addition.
Would depend on where the ship was hit and by how many missiles. Assuming the ship was still afloat after being hit a lot would depend on its DC standards and how fast DC teams react, their level of training and the kit they have.

We only have to.look at what happened to the Stark, Hanit, Elait, Glamorgan, Atlantic Conveyor [non naval ship] and others to realise that the effects of a missile strike on a ship are determined by various factors, some remained afloat, some didn't.
 

koxinga

Well-Known Member
I have seen the video of a successful test firing of the Indonesian Navy's C-705. Hits the target ship, didn't do much damage. It took a follow-up torpedo hit to sink the target ship. If the Ukrainian Neptune can sink a 12,000 tonnes ship I would welcome its addition.
Indonesian SINKEX typically involved their decommissioned vessels, chiefly Forsch class LSMs and I think some cargo/passenger vessels.

While @STURM points out accurately that DC plays a role, the other factor is these SINKEX vessels are stripped out of any usable equipment and of course, munitions. It can take a bit of punishing especially if the hull remains intact, instead of lighting up like a fireball due to flamable materials, munitions cooking off.. It is something like a target ship for exercises, where the superstructure is largely empty sheets of metal or shipping containers. This is why the finishing shot is usually a torpedo because that would break the hull below the waterline.

Reportedly (unconfirmed), in the case of the Moskva one of the Vulkan missiles was damaged and ignited in the incident. Given the massive P-1000 Vulkans lining up on the sides of the Moskva, I am not surprised.
 

MotorManiac

New Member
Russian state TV undermining their own propaganda:

Edit:

The video shows a Russian TV show where an elderly man calls for vengeance on Ukraine for the loss of the Moskva whereas Russian authorities claim the Moskva sunk due to an accident. The video has something unwanted comical to it as it seems the moderators must prevent the elderly man from calling the war a war. I thought it was interesting and short enough to share it since it gives a small insight how Russian media cover the incident.

 
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Rock the kasbah

Active Member
I am sure some of you ex navy personnel will know but I would think a wounded ship of that size, under tow, in a storm, would require a few more than 50 odd crew.
Poor bastards
 

GermanHerman

Active Member
Interesting SPD numbers — 66% wants Olaf Scholz to send heavy weapons. The party leaders are misreading or ignoring their SPD supporters.
SPD is notorious for acting against the interests of their base, dating back to 1918when they suffocated the november revolution and as recently as 2003 when they significantly reduced socialwelfare under Schröder.

Haffner’s view of the SPD was almost precisely the version Gerwarth now hopes to dispel: that in the 1918-19 revolution and subsequent civil war the party leaders betrayed their mass working-class support – and that the ultimate outcome of that betrayal was the disaster of Nazi triumph in 1933.
The tragedy is doubled because Scholz is extremly weak, he was mainly elected because he stayed in the background during the campaigning. Baerbock and Laschet were doing a lot of campaigning, exposed themselfs and in the end stumbled over themselfs while Scholz merged with the background and got zero negative press.

This clearly is not the kind of leader to take decisive action and step up to the rising challenge. I'm also rather concerned about the possible election of LePen in France for that very reason, albeit not beeing a fan of Merkel I do miss her resolve at the moment.

The support for urkaine among the german population is extremly high though and the pressure will build to the point where the SPD will give in. Sadly that might take too long for Ukraine, but it will change germany in a major way. We can hope that this will happen soon enough to make a difference though.
 

hauritz

Well-Known Member
I am sure some of you ex navy personnel will know but I would think a wounded ship of that size, under tow, in a storm, would require a few more than 50 odd crew.
Poor bastards
It doesn't sound like it was under tow to me. That sounds more like there might have only been 54 survivors after the ship exploded.

Edit: Although when I reread it I guess it is possible that it was a skeleton crew.
 
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Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
I have seen the video of a successful test firing of the Indonesian Navy's C-705. Hits the target ship, didn't do much damage. It took a follow-up torpedo hit to sink the target ship. If the Ukrainian Neptune can sink a 12,000 tonnes ship I would welcome its addition.
As a general rule, it's ill advised to make any conclusions on the quality of a weapon system in a vacuum, on the grounds of "kills" alone, or its prominence in combat.
Ukraine, Azerbaijan are two examples of an unbalanced force. That is, they both have some weapons that are very high tech, and some unique circumstances that make certain types of weapons more relevant, but otherwise their average technological level is not very high.
So in the Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict we see drones and loitering munitions taking a leading role, at least PR-wise.
In Ukraine we see the same for ATGMs, and to a lesser extent drones alone, and drones coupled with artillery.

But when you look at conflicts where at least one very balanced armed force participates, we don't see that anymore. We see a more general success not attributed to any particular weapon system.
And that is because. And that is because there aren't really any wonder weapons.

What hit the Moskva sunk it - yes. Western navies haven't sunk enemy ships in combat in decades, AFAIK. But we don't know if it was a Neptune or not. We don't know how many were launched. We don't know if there are any special circumstances here, other than Russia admitting an ammo detonation.
Moskva's long row of massive 5 ton (said by some sources to be 6-7 tons) missiles could have created a force so strong it could tip it over. Considering the ship's weight though, I don't know if it's likely or not.
It could also start a cascade of reactions like creating fires too large to contain, or cascading ammo blasts holing up the ship below the water line. Everything can be.

AShMs generally are considered great weapons to disable a ship's systems and make it irrelevant. Not much beyond that.
Torpedoes on the other hand, are the true heavyweights of naval weapons. They will sink a ship.
There also isn't necessarily more value in sinking a ship in many cases. Sometimes disabling it, then rescuing its crew and only then sinking it, has more value.
 

GermanHerman

Active Member
Reuters claims that the german government has decided to free up additional 2 billion euros for weapon procurements meant to support Ukraine.

400 million are planed go directly to the EPF which then buys weapons for ukraine.
Some of the other budget is intended for the Bundeswehr and countries helping Ukraine.

It's a bit unclear what that last part means, propably financing bilateral procurements.


This avoids sending lethal aid directly while still sending it under the EU umbrella.
Quite a german solution to the self imposed rule not to send heavy weapons into conflict zones.

It will be interesting to see if the procurements for the Bundeswehr will indicate some of it's systems will be directly transfered.

Sorry for the lack of english sources.
 
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