The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[OPSSG]

About the damaged/sunken ship this might be interesting information:

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/u37l6x

A warm welcome to you.

IMO, the Reddit link contains more opinion than information, it seems. There are reports that Moskva is reportedly not sunk; but she is heavily damaged and unable to move under her own power.

In general, the standards of discussions here (due to members contributing), is a bit higher than Reddit; but we can be wrong too; and often accept corrections.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514529960177946628

If that is true and Moskva is under tow (most likely towards Sevastopol), we will soon see more images.

 

[Boardgamer88]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514529960177946628

If that is true and Moskva is under tow (most likely towards Sevastopol), we will soon see more images.

Assuming the above is true, how long would it take for Russia to get the Moskva up and running again?

 

[OPSSG]

Assuming the above is true, how long would it take for Russia to get the Moskva up and running again?

Pending release of images, I don’t think Moskva will ever sail again — a total constructive loss is a likely outcome. It should have been retired ages ago, but the Russian Navy has such a severe shortage of major surface combatants that it was kept in service (see: Серьезная модернизация крейсера «Москва» пока не планируется | Еженедельник «Военно-промышленный курьер»).

The ship first commissioned in 1983, it was recommissioned in 2000. While Moskva was the flagship of the Black Sea fleet, it is in a pitiful state. Broader modernisation was cancelled in 2015 — at that time, it was decided that further extension of the service life of the Moskva cruiser may not be appropriate, because by 2030 it will be 47 years old. What was done in the past was the repair of the main power plant, including gas turbine generators, gearboxes, fuel equipment, gas ducts of sustainer gas turbine engines and other elements of the power plant.

 

[koxinga]

Pending release of images, I don’t think Moskva will ever sail again — a total constructive loss is a likely outcome. It should have been retired ages ago, but the Russian Navy has such a severe shortage of major surface combatants that it was kept in service (see: Серьезная модернизация крейсера «Москва» пока не планируется | Еженедельник «Военно-промышленный курьер»).

The ship first commissioned in 1983, it was recommissioned in 2000. While Moskva was the flagship of the Black Sea fleet, it is in a pitiful state. Broader modernisation was cancelled in 2015 — at that time, it was decided that further extension of the service life of the Moskva cruiser may not be appropriate, because by 2030 it will be 47 years old. What was done in the past was the repair of the main power plant, including gas turbine generators, gearboxes, fuel equipment, gas ducts of sustainer gas turbine engines and other elements of the power plant.

The Ukrainians can sell them... the Ukraina, which is rusting at Mykolaiv. That would be a sick burn.

 

[QEDdeq]

Allegedly this is an update from the Russian MoD

Grain of salt, etc. They say that apparently there are no more ammunition explosions and the fire is under control. They are towing it to port back to Sevastopol. The crew is evacuated. I think the photo of the ship might be an old one, can't tell for sure. Later edit: some people claim the photo shows another ship Varyag, not Moskva.

If the Russian MoD's update turns to be true, they seem like they might salvage the situation and even spin it, from a propaganda point of view to say that Russian flagship is unsinkable. In any case, in practical terms it will affect the way Russia operates in the Black sea near Odessa, they will probably maintain a longer distance from the shores from now on.

 

[CJR]

Assuming the above is true, how long would it take for Russia to get the Moskva up and running again?

From what I've seen there's talk (assuming the Russians aren't lying through their teeth) that the crew were evacuated, which either implies the fire did extensive damage or there was enough flooding (either via damage directly or via water used for fire fighting) to render the ship's reserves of stability and buoyancy highly dubious, raising the risk of the ship rapidly sinking while under tow.

Either way you're probably talking a constructive total loss if you look at it from the cost vs going with a new build angle (e.g. HNoMS Helge Ingstad was CTL'ed as a result of flooding back in 2018), or likely a 4-5 year rebuild (taking USS Belknap's 1975 fire as a guide) if everything goes well, no corruption seeing half the replacement parts not arriving etc...

 

[koxinga]

Enabling a passive launch.


Hezbollah did the same. The missile which hit the Hanit was apparently linked to a commercial search radar.

It is similar to a launch on bearing or a bearing only launch. This means the missile is fired into the general vicinity and the active seeker turns on near the terminal phase. In this case, the range and bearing can be supplied by the commercial radar.

 

[Jed Fischer]

Allegedly this is an update from the Russian MoD

Grain of salt, etc. They say that apparently there are no more ammunition explosions and the fire is under control. They are towing it to port back to Sevastopol. The crew is evacuated. I think the photo of the ship might be an old one, can't tell for sure. Later edit: some people claim the photo shows another ship Varyag, not Moskva.

If the Russian MoD's update turns to be true, they seem like they might salvage the situation and even spin it, from a propaganda point of view to say that Russian flagship is unsinkable. In any case, in practical terms it will affect the way Russia operates in the Black sea near Odessa, they will probably maintain a longer distance from the shores from now on.

It's likely propaganda. There is no recognisable damage on the ship depicted in the photo.

 

[Redlands18]

Pity the Ukrainian's were not in a position to produce a follow up salvo.

 

[Ananda]

Moskva and her sisters and all other large Russian Destroyers supposedly being maintain until Lider program come to fruition.

Is Russia's Lider-class Destroyer Coming Back from the Dead?

The largest Russian warship to be conceived since the Soviet collapse, the mysterious Lider-class destroyer promises to revolutionize Russia’s surface warfare capabilities. Reports emerged as far back as 2009 that Russia’s top military brass is mulling a brand new destroyer acquisition. Citing...

nationalinterest.org

I know there's enough interest for Moskva to be really sunk by Ukranian Neptune SSM. So let's see which is telling the truth. Again the truth will always come out.

And if Moskva still affloat and Russian manage to tow her back to Sevastopol, I agree with OPSSG that chances to rebuild her is going to be very slim. Unless Russian manage to capture Nikolayev and the yards in there on relatively good conditions. That's too much "if".

Lets see how the truth will come out on Moskva real condition.

Pity the Ukrainian's were not in a position to produce a follow up salvo,

I have put in this thread before that some probable Neptune battery be operational. I put there base on information that Ukranian put when they are doing marketing of Neptune land based SSM system to Indonesia two years ago.

It is probable they are keeping them for potential defense of Odessa. Despite this, Russian Black Sea fleet still have enough resources for Amphibious operation.

 

[OPSSG]

Pity the Ukrainian's were not in a position to produce a follow up salvo

Yes, a pity.

Pentagon spokesman John Kirby just said on CNN that the warship Moskva is still afloat but clearly damaged. He said it remains unclear whether the damage was caused by Ukraine missile attack. Russia claims that a fire onboard caused ammunition to explode.

This is my first post in the forum…

my main reason to join was because I was curious about the situation in Mariupol and especially Kharkiv, but I'l address this later.

Glad to see a new member. I don’t have any new info on Mariupol or Kharkiv at this time; will be glad to learn more from you, when you share.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514373412919074822

Ukrainians are saying this is the 15th strike on the Chornobayivka airport. It has always been within artillery range since the Russian offensive began.

 

[hauritz]

Assuming the above is true, how long would it take for Russia to get the Moskva up and running again?

Given the ship was first commissioned 40 years ago it probably should have been turned into a dive wreck years ago.
Ironically there is a sister ship called the Ukraina sitting uncompleted in the harbour of Mykolaiv. The ship is 95% completed.

Ukrainian cruiser Ukraina - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Moskva and her sisters and all other large Russian Destroyers supposedly being maintain until Lider program come to fruition.

Is Russia's Lider-class Destroyer Coming Back from the Dead?

The largest Russian warship to be conceived since the Soviet collapse, the mysterious Lider-class destroyer promises to revolutionize Russia’s surface warfare capabilities. Reports emerged as far back as 2009 that Russia’s top military brass is mulling a brand new destroyer acquisition. Citing...

nationalinterest.org

I know there's enough interest for Moskva to be really sunk by Ukranian Neptune SSM. So let's see which is telling the truth. Again the truth will always come out.

And if Moskva still affloat and Russian manage to tow her back to Sevastopol, I agree with OPSSG that chances to rebuild her is going to be very slim. Unless Russian manage to capture Nikolayev and the yards in there on relatively good conditions. That's too much "if".

Lets see how the truth will come out on Moskva real condition.



I have put in this thread before that some probable Neptune battery be operational. I put there base on information that Ukranian put when they are doing marketing of Neptune land based SSM system to Indonesia two years ago.

It is probable they are keeping them for potential defense of Odessa. Despite this, Russian Black Sea fleet still have enough resources for Amphibious operation.

This war is already expensive enough for Russia without all those embargoes and boycots. So personally I think that it is unlikely that new heavy destroyer/cruiser programs like the Project 23560 Lider will start construction in the next 10 years.

Even the continuation of the Project 22350M is not sure now anymore.

 

[OPSSG]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514589928419893251

Can some European or American millionaire please buy these 28 Bronco 2s for Ukraine?

 

[STURM]

Given the ship was first commissioned 40 years ago it probably should have been turned into a dive wreck years ago.

Why? It was still operational and had a role to play; age withstanding. There are ships operated by Tier One navies which are nearly as old; the USN's Ticonderogas come to mind.

 

[MotorManiac]

A warm welcome to you.

IMO, the Reddit link contains more opinion than information, it seems. There are reports that Moskva is reportedly not sunk; but she is heavily damaged and unable to move under her own power.

As long as the ship isn't operational for the next years the implications for this war are still the same. Meaning a lack of air defense for the rest of the fleet and also the ground forces in the area, or is this speculation as well? As far as I know even the Ukrainians did not claim that the ship sunk.

I'm wondering about the lack of images from both sides, according to the Reddit link the Moskva was hit in the night, if it sunk before dawn this might explain the lack of images, but it should not be that hard for western intelligence to find out.

As for Kharkiv and Mariupol, I have no information to offer but was wondering how the Russians did not manage to take Kharkiv given its location so close to the Russian border and a majority of a Russian population.

 

[Ranger25]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514242356949704709

Broadcasting to help others hear Zelenskyy’s call for more weapons. The German government, led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz (from the same party - SPD - as Steinmeier) is not seen by Kyiv and others as having done enough to support Ukraine.

IMO, German policy under Scholz is not a failure but a disappointment; because it could be so much better.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514398512729178112

Team Biden, through his Secretary of Defense has heard the call. 200 M113s and 11 Mi-17s are significant additions for Ukrainian troop mobility.

Will be very effective if some of the 40,000 155 rounds going over include the Excalibur. 40km range, tight CEP around 4-5 M. Would be very effective on those convoys etc.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Will be very effective if some of the 40,000 155 rounds going over include the Excalibur. 40km range, tight CEP around 4-5 M. Would be very effective on those convoys etc.

That would mean only 8 barrels could fire those Excaliburs IF those are howitzers capable of that. And of course if Ukraine has the suitable means to guide them.

Moskva and her sisters and all other large Russian Destroyers supposedly being maintain until Lider program come to fruition.

The Lider program always seemed to be a smokescreen, not an actual program.
Overly ambitious at a time when Russia smartly takes only low-risk programs of incremental upgrades, and obviously of non-existent budget.

Compared to the Lider, the Armata program seems like a very balanced, low risk program that cannot fail.
It is a project of vanity that is of little to no military use, certainly not for a country like Russia that would benefit far more from building more corvettes and light frigates, rather than huge cruisers.

 

[OPSSG]

Russian Army spread their forces too thin

1. Russia started the war on faulty intelligence, which is why they wasted the elite in the attack on Kyiv, a battle that they lost. For this 2nd round, Ukrainian SF sabotaged the railway tracks near Belgorod, a Russian border town close to the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv. This will delay Russian troop redeployments from Kyiv to other areas and disrupt the supply of logistics for a few days. In a delay battle, you want to buy time. Every day you buy is another day to improve defences. It’s also another day, the Russians have to supply troops in the field.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514483451805802496

2. After Russian supply cross the border, they get hit again. Sharing of intelligence to conduct effective ambushes at chokepoints and the unhindered delivery of ATGMs must help in this aspect. Russian troops need to eat, rest and sleep, too. If their supply lines are not secure, they have to hold back their attacks.

… I have no information to offer but was wondering how the Russians did not manage to take Kharkiv given its location so close to the Russian border and a majority of a Russian population.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514559280908746761

3. Even with supply disruptions the Russians are attacking the residential district in the north-east of Kharkiv but they are not able to hold ground. A single Russian artillery battalion of 18 guns, firing a measly 11 rounds per gun consumes 198 rounds (per fire mission). In a 72 hour period, an artillery battalion can use up to 1,980 rounds. Russia is consuming munitions at a rate unseen in recent memory — a delay battle that extends a fight by a mere 3 days, means it creates the need for Russia to ship this amount of artillery ammo to support just 3 of their BTGs advancing on Kharkiv.

 

[swerve]

As for Kharkiv and Mariupol, I have no information to offer but was wondering how the Russians did not manage to take Kharkiv given its location so close to the Russian border and a majority of a Russian population.

Mariupol had a mainly Russian population & was even closer, but so far it's taken over six weeks & there's still fighting. Kharkiv is over three times the size & harder to isolate.

And a lot of Russian-speaking Ukrainians seem to have lost any pro-Russian sympathies they may once have had.