The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[hauritz]

That would mean only 8 barrels could fire those Excaliburs IF those are howitzers capable of that. And of course if Ukraine has the suitable means to guide them.


The Lider program always seemed to be a smokescreen, not an actual program.
Overly ambitious at a time when Russia smartly takes only low-risk programs of incremental upgrades, and obviously of non-existent budget.

Compared to the Lider, the Armata program seems like a very balanced, low risk program that cannot fail.
It is a project of vanity that is of little to no military use, certainly not for a country like Russia that would benefit far more from building more corvettes and light frigates, rather than huge cruisers.

I imagine there will be a lot of higher priority projects facing Russia than rebuilding its navy. Land forces will have to be the priority. The air force is pretty much missing in action as well. Rebuilding a blue water navy would have to be pretty low on the to do list at the moment.

I could never take the Lider project seriously. A 19,000 ton nuclear powered destroyer sounds like fantasy. The project has been pushed back several times because of lack of funds. Well funding just got a whole lot more problematic with the entire Russian economy in freefall.

 

[MotorManiac]

Mariupol had a mainly Russian population & was even closer, but so far it's taken over six weeks & there's still fighting. Kharkiv is over three times the size & harder to isolate.

And a lot of Russian-speaking Ukrainians seem to have lost any pro-Russian sympathies they may once have had.

Concerning Kharkiv I propably have overestimated the Russians plus the invasion likely was not that surprising while I may have underestimated the size of the city and the hardships of urban combat. I also heard that many Russians speakers fled the seperatist areas and were no longer so much Russia-friendly.

Concerning Mariupol, given the fortifications, the importance of the city and the skill of the defenders I'm no longer wondering that it took Russia so long and battles still ongoing, reminds me on Stalingrad.

Some links:

BNN Bloomberg – Canada Business News, TSX Today and Interest Rates

Get the latest Canadian business news, TSX updates, interest rates and Bank of Canada coverage. Explore stock market investing and get expert financial insights on investment portfolio strategies.

www.bnnbloomberg.ca

The article says that the Asovstal plant was already shelled in 2015 by rebel forces and then bunkers were built, I have also heard of Soviet era nuclear bunkers there but found no confirmation for this.

For the last two weeks, more than 4,000 staff and family members have lived in bomb shelters the steel mills built after their sites were hit by artillery fire from Russian-backed separatists in 2015. They’ve been stocked with food, water and satellite phones ever since.

Found also these articles about the fortifications in Mariupol:

Armored doors and many rooms. A former employee of Azovstal spoke about the bunker of the plant - Oops Top

A former worker of Azovstal spoke about the bomb shelters of the plant The Ukrainian militants who fled on the territory of the Mariupol plant “Azovstal” are in bomb shelters ... Read more

oopstop.com

Mariupol's tunnel warriors seek to slow Russian onslaught

As Russian forces close in on the southern Ukrainian port city of Mariupol, a small number of resistance fighters hope to slow them down using a tunnel system below a vast industrial site as their base.

www.france24.com

If the Russians ever try to take Odessa, this town has historical catacombs all under the city:

In WWII, Soviet partisans hid in the Odessa Catacombs, which stretch for thousands of miles below the city | The Vintage News

 

[John Fedup]

I imagine there will be a lot of higher priority projects facing Russia than rebuilding its navy. Land forces will have to be the priority. The air force is pretty much missing in action as well. Rebuilding a blue water navy would have to be pretty low on the to do list at the moment.

I could never take the Lider project seriously. A 19,000 ton nuclear powered destroyer sounds like fantasy. The project has been pushed back several times because of lack of funds. Well funding just got a whole lot more problematic with the entire Russian economy in freefall.

Any naval expansion should be SSKs and SSNs and smaller surface combatants but agree, land forces will be the priority along with mega logistics improvements. A tough task given the losses and I would expect recruiting will be difficult once word gets around about the leadership C-F. Putin will likely expect significant contributions from the oligarchs.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

Pentagon: "There was an explosion" on the Russian warship but US can't assess at this point if missile hit it

The US and EU have pledged a combined $1.3 billion more in military aid for Ukraine as Russia prepares to launch an eastern offensive.

edition.cnn.com

The US has stated that Moskva didn't sink and is "making her own way across the Black Sea", but also confirmed they were aware there was at least one explosion on the ship that caused "extensive damage"

Perhaps not the massive hit to morale it being sunk would be and a little easier to spin propaganda wise, but still a big blow to the Russian Black Sea Fleet.

 

[OPSSG]

Post 1 of 3: RCP as a concept and resources on CQB tactics

Concerning Kharkiv I propably have overestimated the Russians plus the invasion likely was not that surprising while I may have underestimated the size of the city and the hardships of urban combat.

1. Do you know the concept of relative combat power (RCP)? Read back this thread.

2. 5:1 RCP needed in urban areas, if your troops are tactically competent, with an adequate battle plan.

3. Even for the superbly equipped and tactically competent, an urban battle is a long hard slog. Take for example, the Second Battle of Fallujah. That took the Americans 1 month, 2 weeks and 2 days to fight.

4. What Russia does in Ukraine is not terrorism but rather, they are war crimes. A better example of the long hard slog of an urban war faced by the Russian Army in Mariupol would be the Battle of Marawi. In every city the Russian Army fights in, they will lack clear information regarding the location and estimated number of Ukrainian Army troops defending a particular sector of the city.


5. Likewise, the Philippines were surprised by the scale of the fighting in the city of Marawi and the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) took months to clear the city, totally destroying it.

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(a) This all started with Operation Bingo in May 2017 — to arrest ISIS-Philippines leadership (namely, Isnilon Hapilon), with an AFP contingency plan to extricate the raiding element, as described by Maj. Adolf Ian M. Garceron of the AFP in his Master’s Thesis (link provided in paragraph (e) below) and by James Lewis in “Small Team Lessons Learned for the Close Fight”.​

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(b) When Alpha Company of 65th Infantry Battalion, who were sent to reinforce the raiding elements from the AFP-Joint Special Operation Group (AFP-JSOG), all hell broke lose. The terrorists and the armed civilians in the area were known for their swarm tactics, but the large number of deployed forces for Operation Bingo could be what discouraged the terrorists from going further in employing their swarm tactics, and discouraged armed civilians from joining the swarm against those involved in the raid.​

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(c) The security of the plan, the plan for the breaching, and raid of the house for the arrest of ISIS-Philippines leadership worked during the execution, but the AFP-JSOG planners fell short in contingency planning; but they were adaptive, issuing Frag. Orders when things did not go as expected during the different phases of fighting. The AFP used quadcopter drones to observe the mortar fire in targeting terrorist strongholds. Also, they continued monitoring radios captured from terrorists; and later learned that a terrorist commander and his two subordinates were neutralized in that particular mortar fire mission.​

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(d) Elements of AFP-JSOG we’re tasked to conduct crash courses in Close Quarter Battle (CQB) for newly arrived AFP units in order to improve their capability in urban combat before they were sent into fight at Marawi City. The AFP planning and assessment phase involved leader’s reconnaissance and drone reconnaissance. The result of the reconnaissance was the basis of the plan for the assault of various target buildings that took place later. The next phase was softening or saturation fire towards the target building. Softening sometimes involved aerial bombing, artillery, mortar, and machine-gun fire.​

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(e) To clear terrorist occupied buildings, the AFP used 81 mm mortars, crew-served weapons, armored vehicles and even man-handled a 105 mm howitzer in a direct fire mode to soften their targets prior to CQB. The howitzer fired rounds towards the Landbank Building in order to create several openings in the walls to serve as entrances for the assaulters. The Battle of Marawi brought an excellent case worth studying for urban warfare that is applicable to what will happen to cities in Ukraine. There is plenty of declassified professional commentary to read to help us understand the thinking behind this CQB.​

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(f) To give you an idea of how difficult things were for the APF, the terrorists were shooting through loop holes, to avoid detection. The terrorists also booby-trapped buildings with IEDs before they would abandon buildings assaulted by the AFP. Operation Bingo unexpectedly triggered a 5 month long urban war (with the eventual deployment of Australian and American advisors to the AFP), against an enemy force far larger than expected.​

 

[STURM]

Concerning Mariupol, given the fortifications, the importance of the city and the skill of the defenders I'm no longer wondering that it took Russia so long and battles still ongoing, reminds me on Stalingrad.

Operations conducted by the Americans and Syrians are worthy of further study: took them months to retake Aeppo, Mosul and other cities. The Russians have major urban experience from Chechnya but whether whether the lessons are remembered by units in the field is question. Then again in more recent times Russian advisors were present at a few urban engagements fought in Syria.

The Filipinos went through a steep learning curve at Marawi but they not only eventually learnt but also innovated. They adopted certain tactics that helped in a major way; as well as employing engineering assets and fire power to good use. The Modern Warfare Institute has a great podcast on Marawi. In the Philippines army thread I posted a link to a podcast about a Filipino army unit and its experiences at Marawi.

 

[GermanHerman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514242356949704709

Broadcasting to help others hear Zelenskyy’s call for more weapons. The German government, led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz (from the same party - SPD - as Steinmeier) is not seen by Kyiv and others as having done enough to support Ukraine.

IMO, German policy under Scholz is not a failure but a disappointment; because it could be so much better.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514398512729178112

Team Biden, through his Secretary of Defense has heard the call. 200 M113s and 11 Mi-17s are significant additions for Ukrainian troop mobility.

Germany has a problematic relationship with war and with its own military.

I think this is also part of a nations sovereignity to decide for itself how and if it wants to help other nations in war.

In any case Ukraine propably Made a mistake by alienating Steinmeier as this had a sever impact on the sentiment of the SPD.

For those unaware of german politics, at the moment the country is ruled by a coalition of three: SPD, Green Party and FDP. The SPD is the senior partner and also the one that was relucant to deliver lethal aid to ukriane in the first place. FDP and the Green Party have already been pushing for more weapon deliveries. However, any decisions have to be agreed upon by all parties.

Steinmeier is a senior figure of the SPD. As foreign minister he pushed for closer ties with russia but he also quite recently admited publicly that this was a mistake. The insult by kiev is felt, a lot of influential SPD politicians are alienanted and angry.

I don't know how this will work out in the court of public opponion but it sure was not the best bet to speed up the process.

 

[Ananda]

is a project of vanity that is of little to no military use, certainly not for a country like Russia that would benefit

So personally I think that it is unlikely that new heavy destroyer/cruiser programs like the Project 23560 Lider will start construction in the next 10 years.

On that I agree on, seems also Russia going to put much effort to finish on plan 12 22350M. Even that going to put much strain on their yard building capacities. I put the Lider articles on the context why they have to put up with large Sovyet era Destroyers and Cruisers much longger then initially plan.



Also one thing to consider. This I have put it before, as seems some media comentators in Western media forgot to take count on how massive Russian Inland Waterway systems. Some comentators in Western mainstream media still think to push Turkey to cut off Bosporus access, as the only way for Russia to beef up their effort to supply Black Sea Fleet.

Assides their cruisers and destroyers practically their Frigates and Corvettes can use that waterways (base on the dimensions of the locks). Thus maintain Frigates and Corvettes mix of fleet actually beneficials for their Surface Ships movement between Northern, Baltic, Black Sea and Caspian Sea flotillas.

Add:
Look at the map, and can be seen why for Russia strategic needs, they want to control all shores of Sea of Azov. So unless Ukranian can conduct miracle counter offensive from their Army in Donbas, Russia will keept Sea Azov either through their 'puppet' Republics or direct control.

 

[OPSSG]

Post 2 of 3: RCP as a concept and resources on CQB tactics

They adopted certain tactics that helped in a major way; as well as employing engineering assets and fire power to good use. The Modern Warfare Institute has a great podcast on Marawi. In the Philippines army thread I posted a link to a podcast about a Filipino army unit and its experiences at Marawi.

6. The podcast has very good information. The AFP reduced the vulnerability of the armored vehicles by not allowing the armored vehicles move ahead of the infantry during the siege. Therefore, learning from the utilization of armored vehicles that both succeeded and failed, the armored vehicles should avoid moving ahead of the infantry during urban operations. The infantry and armored vehicles should mutually support each other.

(a) One of the things not mentioned was the tactic of firing one shot every ten seconds into an opening in the wall where the terrorists might possibly peek from and shoot at the troops became a norm. The CO assigned a troop for every window, door or any other opening in a wall — these were all aimed shots. These soldiers were instructed to fire at their assigned opening once every ten seconds. This approach caused terrorist shooters to hesitate from using these openings, prior to an assault on a target building.​

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(b) The second thing not mentioned was the adoption of a rotation scheme for certain units. The AFP ground commanders would task one Light Reaction Company (LRC) under their command at a time in clearing operation while the other LRC units rested. The LRCs who assaulted a building were relieved by the students of SFOC 134. The LRC troops rested after the clearing operation and the SFOC 134 students occupied and guarded the recently cleared building.​

 

[MotorManiac]

1. Do you know the concept of relative combat power (RCP)? Read back this thread.

2. 5:1 RCP needed in urban areas, if your troops are tactically competent, with an adequate battle plan.

I'm aware of these numbers but I expected Russia would be able (and willing) to mobilize enough troops to conquer a city so close to its own border early in the war, especially with the advantage of surprise (?), an advantage that is now gone of course. So either Russia hadn't mobilized enough troops or Kharkiv had no priority to them? But now the defenders are awaiting them and likely made fortifications, I guess the outcome will be the same as in Kyiv?

BTW speaking about numbers, I have read that an invader should outnumber the enemy about 3 times, Russia has only 3.5 times the population of Ukraine, if Ukraine would mobilize any able man (and maybe woman), Russia would have to mobilize its entire population to subdue Ukraine if you can calculate like that. Ukraine, Poland and Germany together have a slightly higher population as Russia and Russia's demography is as bad as most European countries.

 

[OPSSG]

BTW speaking about numbers, I have read that an invader should outnumber the enemy about 3 times, Russia has only 3.5 times the population of Ukraine, if Ukraine would mobilize any able man (and maybe woman), Russia would have to mobilize its entire population to subdue Ukraine if you can calculate like that. Ukraine, Poland and Germany together have a slightly higher population as Russia and Russia's demography is as bad as most European countries.

If I may be so bold as to be direct — go read up on RCP, we are a technical forum and not a thread on Twitter (infested with the uninformed but having opinions). You obviously don’t understand the concept — don’t reply until you take the time to read up on basic concepts. It’s not the population number that matters.

Relative combat power (RCP) as a concept needs to be understood, including the use of reserves for spoiling counter attacks. How RCP is to be applied is detailed below.

	Blue Lower quality than Red	Blue Same quality as Red	Blue Greater quality than Red
Blue with smaller numbers than Red	Avoid battle	Avoid battle, apply Tactics of Division if unable to avoid battle	Apply Tactics of Concentration
Blue same numbers as Red	Avoid battle, apply Tactics of Division if unable to avoid battle	Apply Tactics of Division	Apply Tactics of Concentration

(a) The Lanchester Square Law allows us to compare the RCP of two fighting forces and anticipate the outcome of battle. There are 3 points that needs to be highlighted, as follows:

(i) RCP of a force is not the number of units; but​

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(ii) the RCP is proportional to the square of the number of units and proportional to the quality of units; and​

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(iii) if we know the qualities and numbers of two forces at the start of a battle, we can tell the outcome.​

(b) If Blue forces are outnumbered but are of greater quality, they can defeat a Red enemy force of lower quality. Commanders should use Tactics of Concentration—to divide the Red forces into smaller groups, so that Blue forces have greater quantity and quality (and so greater RCP) in each battle against the smaller groups of Red forces. The Blue forces can take on these smaller groups of Red forces one by one, eventually wiping them out.

(c) If Blue forces have greater numbers but of lower quality, they can defeat a smaller enemy force of greater quality. Commanders should use Tactics of Numbers—to prevent the Red forces from dividing Blue forces (i.e. prevent Red forces from using Tactics of Concentration against them).

RCP numbers are not plucked from the air. I explained the concept in great other posts in the Taiwan thread (explaining the concepts of deterrence & relative combat power).

1. Watch this to see conscripts being f##ked by instructors for poor tactics. You can see smoke being used to get across a danger area to enter the urban area from the jungle — there is about a 3 second window to clear a danger area. The fights are not static.

(a) Later, the instructor is shouting — if you don’t have line of sight — don’t fire. Aim and shoot. BTW, ammo usage is heavy in urban warfare — don’t waste bullets that need to be resupplied.

(b) In the middle of a fire fight, the conscripts talk about 1 person keeping watch on the enemy firing — the rest of the section do a flanking attack, over the wall in another direction — this is about how to find and fix the enemy. The decision making process here is quite poor. It’s too slow to fight a thinking enemy.

(c) You can see these conscripts being f##ked left, right and centre. While the enemy keeps moving after firing. To find, fix and kill a moving enemy is not easy.


2. Urban warfare is very unforgiving, even if soldiers are from a well trained unit executing a competent plan. A bit of luck and good TTPs are needed, to stay in the fight.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509230681506959368

3. If you can’t see the enemy, don’t shoot. I have no idea why the Chechens want to waste ammo to shoot at nothing.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508447343166861314

4. This is a staged video to pretend that they are using suppressive fire to cross a danger area is one way of doing it. A more effective way is to use smoke grenades to cross the danger area. I don’t even know what sort of targets they are shooting at in the above video — if the enemy is hidden well, they would taken multiple causalities at this danger area — based on their tactics. We will see how many Chechens remain in the fight in the next 14 days. The stupid tend to die first.

Don’t waste my time asking for a reply on the conduct of urban warfare and the CQB TTPs, if you don’t bother to read up on the concepts, along with the links provided.

There is only so much spoon feeding we can do.

 

[STURM]

The podcast has very good information.

Engineers were put to good use doing various things including using bulldozers to clear rubble and barricades; searching for IEDs: etc but one thing I don't get is why they went through the trouble to construct ramps in order for Simbas and M-113s to be positioned on the 2nd floor [in Singapore and Malaysia this would-be called the 1st floor] in order to provide direct fire support with turret and pintle mounted machine guns. An easier way to.do it would have been to just deploy machine gun teams.

Malawi also has some tunnels which were used by the bad guys; constructed during the civil war in the 1970's.

 

[MotorManiac]

@OPSSG

I don't mind your boldness, I am aware there are strict rules in this forum and a lot of professionals posting (which I am not) and I do not want to annoy anybody. Do I understand you right that you take it offensive that I compared the populations of both countries?

I only wanted to stress that Russia can not mobilize an endless flow of soldiers unlike countries like India or China maybe, assuming that Ukraine and Russia share a similar culture and have similar demographics and gender and age distribution and so Russia can mobilize "only" 3.5 as much troops as Ukraine which I read is a reasonable amount to conquer another country and keep it occupied.

I think I understand RCP but I don't see where I have neglected this concept. My argument was not that the size of a population
defines the outcome of a war but I believe demographics is an important factor in modern wars, not in a directly military but a more social sense, I refer to that in a Taiwan or China thread. I mean RCP is related to demographics, how many troops you can mobilize at all.

As for urban combat, I'm just wondering that Russia wasn't able (or willing) to provide the 5x amount of troops or whatever needed to conquer Kharkiv right at the start of the war, given that it is a major city right at the border.

 

[OPSSG]

Post 3 of 3: RCP as a concept and resources on CQB tactics

7. The Ukrainians are fighting well because they have been flooded with more ATGMs that most armies have. The Russians are in a war, with Ukraine, as a NATO supported proxy.

…one thing I don't get is why they went through the trouble to construct ramps in order for Simbas and M-113s to be positioned on the 2nd floor [in Singapore and Malaysia this would-be called the 1st floor] in order to provide direct fire support with turret and pintle mounted machine guns. An easier way to.do it would have been to just deploy machine gun teams.

8. The Pinoys, can’t fight like the MAF. It is all driven by a lack of resources allocated — that is why they fight in a way that make a Malaysian or Singaporean will wonder, if there is a better way. Their armoured vehicles had hill-billy armour (aka emotional support armour), instead of statistical armour that would have worked against the RPG threat they faced from the terrorists. They don’t have smoke, so they used curtains to obstruct views.

(a) I don’t know why the Pinoys are proud of using a sling shot to ‘throw’ grenades, when there are better weapons at play. The Pinoy SF were given NVGs by the Americans but the AFP were not resourced to buy flash suppressors — negating their night fighting advantage. The fighting mainly took part in the day partly because the normal Pinoy infantry battalions did not have NVGs.​

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(b) The CONOPS used by the Pinoys are just different — not better or worse, just different. To advance on an avenue to a target building, MAF would have used a section of PT-91Ms and the main guns would clear the way for APCs to follow (instead of using a single 105mm howitzer for the Pinoys). In the SAF’s case, it will be different from the MAF. Supported by airborne multi-spectral sensors or all-weather synthetic aperture radar, the SAF’s bomb and missile strikes will come from beyond line of sight, aided by decision support engines. In the near future, each Singapore platoon has a forward sensor operator to push forward a sensor to draw fire.​

9. The Australian advisors shared with the AFP CQB tactics for tear gas use. The AFP employed tear gas to good effect, to clear defended buildings. For room entry, they don’t even have bullet shields that Singapore’s ADF use. A number of the Pinoy troops were hit on the body armour due to a lack of shields.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1160040817890693120

10. The APF don’t even have enough RR or mortar rounds; and in many cases only certain units knew how to maintain the Browning .50 caliber machine gun. The AFP might use a .50 to cover, whereas a Singaporean company commander might elect to use the Spike SR, as part of our sense and strike chain.

 

[Aerojoe]

Returning to the topic of this thread, The Guardian is reporting that Russia’s MoD have announced that Moskova has sunk while under tow. Probably makes little difference in current conflict whether it sunk or was out of action for next 12months in repair. But the wider PR and morale implications for both sides of a sinking rather than damage are significant.

 

[Nabludatel]

Москва ship has sunk as per Russian MOD
Hopefully sailors are safe.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514694898221518856

 

[rand0m]

Indonesia to sign contract with Ukraine to purchase RK-360MC Neptune m

According to information released by the Defense Express website on December 24, 2020, Indonesia would have signed a contract with Ukraine for the purchase

www.navyrecognition.com

If this really work being done by Neptune SSM, it will increase the marketability (assuming Ukraine still able to produce it). Some rumours on Ukraine try to find partner by selling their design and systems, due to condition of their Military Industrial Complex.

It feels like every week the TNI are adding yet another type of missile into their inventory, how on earth do they support it all

 

[T.C.P]

It feels like every week the TNI are adding yet another type of missile into their inventory, how on earth do they support it all

They are nothing compared to Egypt. F-16s, Su-35s, Mig-29s, Rafales ( all in decent numbers too) and now they want to buy F-15s. If China offered some discount J-10s, the Egyptians would probably buy that too. How do they manage to purchase and operate that many air frames, their economy is only slightly bigger than ours. I thought the US mily aid was barely around 2 billion a year is that all it takes to maintain such a large air force?

Back to topic, the factories that Ukraine used to make the Neptunes, are they still around? Ukraine does have a huge amount of military IP. I wonder how much money they could make by selling the technology to nations like Indonesia. The Stugnas they use for example, all have arabic interfaaces, because they were meant to be exported to the Mid East.

Ukraine has a lot of human capital with the skills to manufacture missile systems and such, could offering technical expertise and IP to nations that want to start making ATGMS, SHORADS, AshMs, be a good way to raise quick cash, further supplies and strenghten relationships? Like if they offer to send engineers and IP to Indonesia to make the Neptunes in exchange for Cash and an offshore plant for missile manufacture, since their factories are being bombed?

 

[Ananda]

Like if they offer to send engineers and IP to Indonesia to make the Neptunes in exchange for Cash and an offshore plant for missile manufacture, since their factories are being bombed?

That's what I do believe most probable way Ukranian MIC (Military Industrial Complex) will try to survive during or after this war. Either that, or their engineers and designers goes to other countries and become hired professionals on that country MIC building. Just like the South African defense industry professional being hired by UAE.

Turkish defense forum and media talk and speculate on absorbing Ukranian defense professionals in to their own MIC. This considering toward existing co-op that already build between them before the war.

Ukranian MIC is coming from USSR MIC that's build there, and mostly are in the East. Their MIC rebuild can potentially happen if Ukraine manage to keep big eastern cities like Kharkiv, Dnipro and Zaporizhye in their hand. Even with that, it will be hard thing to do.

 

[T.C.P]

That's what I do believe most probable way Ukranian MIC (Military Industrial Complex) will try to survive during or after this war. Either that, or their engineers and designers goes to other countries and become hired professionals on that country MIC building. Just like the South African defense industry professional being hired by UAE.

Turkish defense forum and media talk and speculate on absorbing Ukranian defense professionals in to their own MIC. This considering toward existing co-op that already build between them before the war.

Ukranian MIC is coming from USSR MIC that's build there, and mostly are in the East. Their MIC rebuild can potentially happen if Ukraine manage to keep big eastern cities like Kharkiv, Dnipro and Zaporizhye in their hand. Even with that, it will be hard thing to do.

If the Eastern cities factories are bombed to rubble, will it matter even if they keep those cities? Might as well start fresh in the West, the Eastern cities will always be in range of Russian and DPR missiles and artillery.

The Turkish one makes the most sense for both. Turkey should send Russia a gift basket. This conflict helped them out more than any other nation. Even the most ardent Anti Turk Euro guy appreciates the Turkish effort in Ukraine and this generation of Europeans got a reminder of the importance of the Turkish Bulwark against Russia. When Ukraine fully joins the EU, Turkey will have a very popular Pro turkey country in the Union.

Realistically how many nations would be in a position to absorb Ukrainain IP and MIC into their own and start manufacturing in a years time frame, to potentially supply to Ukraine as soon as possible,- Indonesia, Malaysia, Turkey, Azerbeijan? I would have loved Bd to be one of them, but with our relationship with Russia and China that isnt happening any time soon.