Polish MiGs (which were previously offered), while updated, does not have any capabilities (most are the A variants) to fire a beyond visual range missile like the R-77. They would be no more than attrition replacements of any destroyed planes. They will not win the air at this rate using manned platforms that are inferior to the Russians.
The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread
- Thread starter Feanor
- Start date
Regarding possible Ukraian acquisitions, I have a question for the experts.
Russia no longer is really pretending that this is a special operation going by the level of high impact munitions they are using, so why does the Russian airforce not conduct high altitude strike missions like they carried out in Syria? I know they lack precision guided munitions. But there new guidance system worked accurately enough in Syria, they were almost as good as 1st gen guided muntions (supposedly). WHile I get the hesitation of not using them to attack city centres, the suburbs and outskirts where the UA is apparently making counteroffensives, should not be that big of a concern.
Is it because ukraine still retains significant numbers of Buks and S-300s, despite losing a lot of them?
And if these Buks and S-300s are that effective, why does not Zielensky ask for more of them from the Eastern European nations instead of planes and tanks? Sure the GBAD systems are targets, but not anymore than aicraft and they seem to be doing a much more effective job if they are responsible for limiting Russia's air force operations like this.
Russia no longer is really pretending that this is a special operation going by the level of high impact munitions they are using, so why does the Russian airforce not conduct high altitude strike missions like they carried out in Syria? I know they lack precision guided munitions. But there new guidance system worked accurately enough in Syria, they were almost as good as 1st gen guided muntions (supposedly). WHile I get the hesitation of not using them to attack city centres, the suburbs and outskirts where the UA is apparently making counteroffensives, should not be that big of a concern.
Is it because ukraine still retains significant numbers of Buks and S-300s, despite losing a lot of them?
And if these Buks and S-300s are that effective, why does not Zielensky ask for more of them from the Eastern European nations instead of planes and tanks? Sure the GBAD systems are targets, but not anymore than aicraft and they seem to be doing a much more effective job if they are responsible for limiting Russia's air force operations like this.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
There's also reports that yesterday Ukraine counter offensive move, being support by their AF. However the reports from various online sources also talk that most Ukraine AF fighters that try to support being down either by Russian SAM or Russian Fighters.
Providing patch up action by getting unmodified Mig 29, only will get slauthered just like the last Ukraine effort. If US want to really serious help rebuild Ukraine AF, then the only way is to get some of their own reserve F-16 rebuild and train Ukraine personel with F-16 (including ground crews).
Off course we all now, even with best effort it will take at least a year to do that. However that's the only way to give Ukraine AF some chances, then giving them old Mig 29.
Providing patch up action by getting unmodified Mig 29, only will get slauthered just like the last Ukraine effort. If US want to really serious help rebuild Ukraine AF, then the only way is to get some of their own reserve F-16 rebuild and train Ukraine personel with F-16 (including ground crews).
Off course we all now, even with best effort it will take at least a year to do that. However that's the only way to give Ukraine AF some chances, then giving them old Mig 29.
Street Fighting
A lot of great videos today out of that area-
Storming of Azov base, it looks like the defenders gave up this positions moments ago
You can see the guy with the red bagpack here too, apparently he is an officer for the naval infantry (no way to confirm this)
Chechens taking a building from Azov militants.
Chechens deep in Mauriopol
Yesterday, special forces of the Armed Forces of the DPR shot ATGMs at ukranian positions.Gorlovsky region.
DPR firing Kornet/ metis ?
Some great air strikes-
The Russian Armed Forces supposedly destroyed Ukrainian MLRS with high-precision weapons The firing positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were reconnoitred with the help of unmanned aerial vehicles.(Pro russian source)
Posted in r/CombatFootage by u/TheSlavicMan • 52 points and 18 comments
old.reddit.com
very grainy video, but you can see the orckets cooking off after the MLRS was hit
Attacks on a cluster of APU vehicles, March 28
Posted in r/CombatFootage by u/Hv34r • 346 points and 48 comments
old.reddit.com
Stirke on a vehicle yard. Repair facility maybe?
Russian precision strike destroys Ukrainian roadblock with dug in BMP
Posted in r/CombatFootage by u/DaniCSGO • 165 points and 71 comments
old.reddit.com
taking out a defensive position
Footage of Russian Mi-28s firing on targets
Posted in r/CombatFootage by u/Dirtyfaction • 575 points and 134 comments
old.reddit.com
The best produced Helicopter attack video released by the Russian Mod so far, I guess they read all the complaints over the bad editing of the previous ones
Artillery
Russian TOS-1A missile strikes on Ukrainian forces
Posted in r/CombatFootage by u/CapitalAdhesiveness3 • 194 points and 82 comments
old.reddit.com
Tos-1 judging by the fireballs.
Most of the focus has been on air and land domain, here is a piece on some aspects of the maritime domain, with focus on Russian "lawfare", or "unlawfare" as the authors suggest to call it.
Some snippets:
CIMSEC is a "non-partisan think-tank". I have not heard about it before, but I recognize some of the names, so seems to be bona fide:
(About Us / Membership | Center for International Maritime Security and Staff / Contact | Center for International Maritime Security)
Some snippets:
CIMSEC is a "non-partisan think-tank". I have not heard about it before, but I recognize some of the names, so seems to be bona fide:
(About Us / Membership | Center for International Maritime Security and Staff / Contact | Center for International Maritime Security)
Nevertheless Ukraine has been very clear: they prefer to get old MiG-29 from Poland while waiting for F-16, instead of getting nothing while waiting for F-16, as described by the Ukrainian fighter pilot that I quoted on the previous page. On this particular question I would value his opinion much higher than people with little or no military training, far away from Ukraine and with no access to solid information on what is really happening in Ukraine (that includes myself). Anyway it seems they will not get the MiG-29, unfortunately.
Ukraine is of course asking for more Buk and S-300 -- in addition to tanks and fighter jets. Not instead of...
Sandhi Yudha
Well-Known Member
Those East-European countries need probably the Buk and S-300 air defence systems by themselves. Besides that, long range AD systems are not cheap, and some of those countries have already donated a lot to Ukraine.
I also expect Russia will keep an eye on the borders, and the Buk/S-300 TEL and support vehicles are more eye-catching than trucks/civilian cars with MANPADS and anti-tank missiles.
GermanHerman
Active Member
Multiple news outlets report that russia will drasticly reduce military action towards kiev and chernihiv
www.google.com
Russia-Ukraine latest updates: Biden cautious over Russia promise
Ukraine news from March 29: Joe Biden urges caution over Russia’s pledge to reduce military activity near Kyiv.
This seems to indicate that reports about russian losses from Nato sources were propably rather correct and we might getting near the end of the war.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
Abramovich in Russian delegation, shown his poisoning (if there is) seems not coming from Putin order. Zelensky talk on compromise for dispute territory, but still want to bring it through referendum.
As Russian going to reduce the attack toward Kiev and Cherniv, seems legit from Russian sources. However there are no indication they will move back. Also no indication that Russia will reduce their military operation on other area, especially East.
It could be Russian offensive in Kyiv area facing
more trouble then other area. However it can also mean that their operations in that area is more to press Ukrainian resources from supporting their main objective in East and South. We will known more perhaps after something tangible come out from the talk.
If this talk resulting something concrete, Sultan Erdo really going places.
Add:
Looking on how the Russian concentrate their operation in East and South, I'm not see they will going to give up Donbas on their demand.
Perhaps they're going to used their position in North as their bargaining chip for East and South. This is just my speculations on looking how far they have invest to getting area in East and South.
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Capt. Ironpants
Active Member
I'm an American and no celebratory champagne for me. I feel like a cup of bitter gall has been set before me, before us all. Having read and watched Biden's speech for myself now, I don't think he went off script at all. It very much appears his call for regime change at the end was written into the speech to start with. Much else is also clearer. The Europeans must have been dismayed (should have been appalled) at the call for regime change and so the White House had to try or walk it back. But now what? Keep this grinding, grinding, grinding economic war going until Russia is ground down? Or we are? The sanctions cut both ways. All because Biden, Nuland and Sullivan want to get rid of Putin? Did the Europeans know what they were signing up for (regime change in Russia) when they rushed into imposing such sweeping sanctions?
This regime change madness is just that, madness. How many Ukrainians will have to die and suffer for it? How many people in how many countries will go hungry as the economic war drags on? How much loss and destruction? Resources that could have been invested in research and development to keep the US and the West from falling behind China will instead be tied up in this long crazy economic war on Russia. As far as I can see, the only winner in this thing will be China. For what? Some crazy scheme to dislodge Putin? How long must we wait for that? And what if it doesn't happen? How likely is it? And if somehow it does happen, will the new guy be any better? He could well be worse. And at what what price?
Sorry, I am appalled and disgusted.
Video of speech:
Transcript:
Remarks by President Biden on the United Efforts of the Free World to Support the People of Ukraine | The White House
The Royal Castle in WarsawWarsaw, Poland 6:16 P.M. CETTHE PRESIDENT: Thank you, thank you, thank you. Please, if you have a seat, be
The current band of European leaders aren't terribly impressive, but I do hope that speech put some steel in their spines to press hard for ceasefire/peace deal. Without the US signing off on a deal, the paper will be as worthless as Minsk 2015 (or Lisbon 1992). Even with American backing, it may end up botched like Resolution 1244. The thorny parts (Donbas and Crimea) may well have to be hammered out on the battlefield for awhile yet. How I wish it could be different.
That's the thing. I've been in the middle of Other People's Wars and seen firsthand how the media totally distorts what is actually happening, even when there are lots of neutral international observers present and their reports are available to the press. I could tell stpries but will spare everyone. Even a quarter century later, those distortions still stand. We don't have the UN and OSCE and other international alphabet agencies poking about in eastern Ukraine, but surely we will not have to wait years or even months to know whether the Russians slaughter the Ukrainian troops caught in that cauldron or whether they manage to hold or break out. What a hideous senseless waste of young lives it will be if they don't.
I don't know whether the pro-Russian claims (the Ukrainians, cut off from fuel, food and other supplies, are about to be surrounded and annihilated) or whether the pro-Ukrainian claims (they are driving the Russians back over the border, leaving many dead behind) have more merit. My hunch is, given past history, there would be heavy casualties on both sides. But again, what do I know?
-----
I wrote the above last evening but did not post it. Today, things look a bit better:
Western officials urge caution over Russian vows to scale back military operations
Ukraine proposed adopting neutral status and a 15-year consultation period on the future of Russian-occupied Crimea as long as a complete ceasefire with Russian forces is agreed, negotiators said at…
Perhaps sanity, or at least a little sanity, will prevail after all. Despite what US/NATO and the Western press claimed -- and still claim -- it was obvious Putin never intended to take over the whole of Ukraine. I think the Russians hoped Zelensky would bolt and Ukrainian resistance would be much weaker. They never seemed serious about taking Kiev, and I wondered whether, aside from the obvious actual military value, Russian troop presence there was partly an intimidation tactic and also handy as a bargaining chip to plunk down on the negotiation table when the end game started. The Russians got a lot of things wrong, but maybe they got that one a little bit right.
Again, the Russians were wrong, they are the agressors, and I condemn what they have done. But we only have control over what we do. I hope somehow the Europeans can get some spine and push back the American regime change agenda and work on putting a stop to the carnage. And mitigate the global economic fallout (people who starve in Africa will be just as dead as those who lie beneath the ruins of a Ukrainian city).
EDIT: Thank you for the map @Ananda -- I take all maps with a shovel full of salt, but feel l better after looking at that one. Good post, and good point about Russians not moving back.
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How many ordinary Iraqis died because Bush and Blair, for reasons only known to them, decided that invading Iraq was the way to.go. The previous decade, on the pretext that it was aimed at Saddam's WMD, sanctions were imposed aimed at topping Saddam. Problem was ordinary Iraqis did the dying and suffering whilst the Baath leadership continued enjoying their imported food, cigars and furniture.
Getting back to the present: I'll.say again what I said when this whole tragedy started; the Ukraine needs the West but it has to exercise extreme caution in ensuring it does not get stuck in a Western/Russian power play.
Zelansky's desperate for a ceasefire and nobody can blame him but I'm curious as to how the West feels about the concessions he's willing to make? Has the U.S. said anything about the ongoing peace talks? Will it try to influence what the Ukraine might agree to with Russia?
In an interesting development Belgium, Netherlands, Ireland and Czech Republic expelled today Russian diplomats from the local embassies. In particular Belgium and the Netherlands expelled large numbers. The expelled were suspected of working as intelligence officers. Belgians specified they expelled including from the Russian consulate in Antwerpen. Why could this be significant? Well the large ports in Belgium and Netherlands (e.g. Atwerpen, Roterdam) are intelligence hotspots, that's where equipment, weapons, etc would arrive in Europe from the US in case of a major conflict.
Source: Ukraine war: Dozens of Russian diplomats expelled by four EU nations
Source: Ukraine war: Dozens of Russian diplomats expelled by four EU nations
In other developments I find it amazing how the Russians managed to sell a decision they made unilaterally a few days ago (to stall their attacks in the North for the time being and focus elsewhere) as a diplomatic gesture to show good will and build trust. So they gave the impression they compromised a little but without agreeing to an inconvenient ceasefire (inconvenient until Mariupol and Donbass are fully occupied). The move seems pulled straight from Lavrov's playbook. And the West and Ukraine so desperate to show some progress that they played along with it.
The Ukraine is desperate but I'm not so sure the West is. The West will be keeping a close eye and no doubt will provide advice to ensure the wrong concessions are not made. Have any statements been made by the U.S. and the Europeans on the peace talks? On the part of the Russians; they need a face saving gesture.
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Pentaprism
Member
When I referred to "Americans" I should clarify I am only referring to the ones in Power who are involved with foreign policy. The average American has as much input into this war as the average Russian (or Australian for that matter). All we can do is voice our opinions in forums.I'm an American and no celebratory champagne for me. I feel like a cup of bitter gall has been set before me, before us all. Having read and watched Biden's speech for myself now, I don't think he went off script at all. It very much appears his call for regime change at the end was written into the speech to start with. Much else is also clearer. The Europeans must have been dismayed (should have been appalled) at the call for regime change and so the White House had to try or walk it back. But now what? Keep this grinding, grinding, grinding economic war going until Russia is ground down? Or we are? The sanctions cut both ways. All because Biden, Nuland and Sullivan want to get rid of Putin? Did the Europeans know what they were signing up for (regime change in Russia) when they rushed into imposing such sweeping sanctions?
This regime change madness is just that, madness. How many Ukrainians will have to die and suffer for it? How many people in how many countries will go hungry as the economic war drags on? How much loss and destruction? Resources that could have been invested in research and development to keep the US and the West from falling behind China will instead be tied up in this long crazy economic war on Russia. As far as I can see, the only winner in this thing will be China. For what? Some crazy scheme to dislodge Putin? How long must we wait for that? And what if it doesn't happen? How likely is it? And if somehow it does happen, will the new guy be any better? He could well be worse. And at what what price?
Sorry, I am appalled and disgusted.
Video of speech:
Transcript:
Remarks by President Biden on the United Efforts of the Free World to Support the People of Ukraine | The White House
The Royal Castle in WarsawWarsaw, Poland 6:16 P.M. CETTHE PRESIDENT: Thank you, thank you, thank you. Please, if you have a seat, bewww.whitehouse.gov
I particularly blame the CIA for this ridiculous regime change thinking which has been around for a while now. Sadly it will probably be an even more favoured strategy with dealing with adversaries after this War.
The other problem is the proliferation of so called "Hawks" in key Defence positions which date back to Rumsfeld and Wolfowicz, surely two of the most unfortunate appointments in history.
As bad as Putin has become the tactics used to bring Western Politics and Military to Russia's door step were never going to be appreciated by any Russian President and were only going to lead to trouble the World didn't need.
Yes I can answer that one. Supplying Ukraine with Fighter Jets in the middle of the War would be viewed as deeply escalatory by the Russians and may trigger a nuclear response.
CumbrianRover
New Member
However, the UkrMil wouldn't dare defend their land.
The RAF wouldn't dare foxtrot uniform the operation.
Is too much credence being given to this mad man? Are there no back channels of communication between Russian and NATO braid? I find that hard to believe.
@CumbrianRover Just a bit of housekeeping. The abbreviation RAF = Royal Air Force. The Russian Air Force abbreviation is either RuAF or VVS (Voyenno-Vozdushnye sily Rossii). Please use either of these to prevent confusion. Thanks.
Ngatimozart.
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- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #2,197
Managed to sell it to whom? I was literally about to make the exact same response to their statement that you so eloquently provided. It's no gesture at all. Russian efforts around Kiev have been stalled for a while. I think there is a shift in Russian strategy but it's no good will gesture, rather a recognition of military realities on the ground.
Stephen Blank suggest we should call Russia's bluff, perhaps he is right:
What Ukraine Needs Now | RealClearDefense
Journalist Sergej Sumlenny on Russian soldiers in Ukraine calling home, reporting that Ukraine has something called "asphalt". I guess many of the Russian soldiers come from the poorer parts of Russia?
Sergej Sumlenny on Twitter: "" / Twitter
Sergej Sumlenny on Twitter: "" / Twitter
Earlier in the day it was presented by various media (Turkish and European mainly) as some sort of compromise by the Russians. I see now the US is calling it for what it is, just a way for the Russians to delay a ceasefire until they get a more favorable military position while still claiming they are offering some kind of concession. But indeed that Northern front was hopelessly bogged down after the Russians failed to accurately assess Kiev's defenses. Not only that but the Russian North-Western thrust could have even been cut off if the Ukrainians could mount powerful counterattacks simultaneously from the West and from Kiev. So the Russians are not offering anything in fact, they just maneuver out of an unfavorable military position while claiming they do some kind of concession.
The key question is what will the Ukrainians chose to do about Donbass, will they defend Slaviansk-Kramatorsk area or retreat. If the latter I think it would be a clear indication that Zelenski is willing to consider territorial concessions. Although personally I think it will be the former and thus a prolongation of the war for another month or longer.