The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Rob c

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
I am still not seeing any actual real proof from all the sources here and elsewhere being followed. We have footage of armor being blown up on the Russian side, but not necessarily the personnel with it.
Last week Western media stated Russian loss figure was at 7000, then a day ago it was at 20k, and now they are reporting 40k losses. Getting a bit ridiculous.
The same sources pushing video game footage, Ghost of Kiev, Snake island, and Instagram models protecting cities nonsense are feeding this info into the wild...
From actual Russian military sources on the front lines, most of the losses and wounds are coming from artillery shelling. There arent many being wounded by bullets - of course its not the case everywhere. Also not counting the armor hits and crew deaths.
The point is there is an astounding misinformation campaign coming from the Ukrainian side because they and the West control the narrative. If we were to believe the things that came from Ukrainian/Western side then the Russians never made it past Donbass region and all ran out of diesel on the highway.
Just keep in mind that as I have said before, "The first casualty of war is the truth" this is quite normal and expected as both sides will use false information to their advantage and this considered a legitimate weapon of any war. It is likely that some of the truth will never surface, even after the war has finished. However some sources will get nearer to the facts than others, but you will find that even the best of them will have failings.
 

cdxbow

Well-Known Member
The picture painted in the western media of the Russian special operation invasion is that it has been a clusterf*** at all levels. That the Ukrainians have shown sufficient resolve to hold of the vastly superior Russian army. The picture painted in the Russian media is one of steady progress, welcomed as liberators, rooting out Nazis. Which view will turn out to be closer to the truth?

It's not a 'special operation' nor is it a narrative, it's a war, one started without reason by Mr Putin. No spin required.

You are conflating all different claims about Russian 'casualties'. The 30-40,000 figure comes from NATO for all losses, not just the dead. The 7000 figure started from the US some time ago, and is consistent with the lower end of the last NATO estimate (23/3) putting the number of Russians killed between 7000-15000. The Ukraine has been saying for some time the figure is over 15,000. The only Russian figure I have seen is the 498 acknowledged in early March, I have seen nothing official since. Given the extraordinary amount of armour and material the Russians have lost I don't see the Western figures as surprising. Whose numbers will turn out to be closer to the truth?
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

Around Kiev.

Explosion in Kiev.


Ukrainian BRDM-2 destroyed near Kiev.


Another KUB-BLA Russian loitering munitions falls in Kiev.


Smoke rising over Irpen'.


Russian Su-25s operating over Irpen.


Positions of British fighters in Irpen'. These have apparently been operating near Kiev.


Russian T-72 near Kiev.


Footage of a map of an alleged Ukrainian counter-offensive. Veracity is unclear.


Ukrainian PKM clones captured near Kiev.


Satellite images of flooding caused in a small village near Kiev, by the destruction of a dam, allegedly by Ukrainian forces.


The North.


A Ukrainian D-20 battery near Chernigov getting hit.


Smoke rising over Chernigov, presumably the city got hit.


A Ukrainian column got hit near Chernigov. We can see two destroyed trucks, two captured NLAWs and other munitions/gear.


More footage of one of the two destroyed T-72AMTs near Chernigov.


Battle damage in Chernigov.


Destroyed bridge near Chernigov.


Russian troops handing out humanitarian aid out the back of an armored truck in Kherson.


Ukrainian conscript POW, 16th btln of the 58th Mech Bde. He says their commander abandoned them, he barely ever saw his btln CO or company CO, claims they weren't at their actual fighting positions. He says they were based inside population centers with civilians in them, by their command's orders. He was taken POW wounded near Chernigov.


Kharkov-Sumy.

Village Zhuravlevka, Belgorod region, Russia, allegedly got hit by a Ukrainian Smerch strike. Locals were subsequently evacuated.


Civilian taped to a pole with tires, in Kharkov. Allegedly the proprietor of a tire changing place that refused to provide free service to territorial defense units.


Pole taping, Kharkov. Context unclear.


Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa.

Alleged Ukrainian military storage destroyed in Nikolaev.


A Ukrainian Bayraktar TB-2 was directing artillery fire against Russian positions in the Kherson airport. Presumably this is the strike that hit 3 helos and many trucks.


Smoke rising over Nikolaev.


Russian troops clearing mines in Kherson region. Note these minefields are near the Crimean border and have been here, allegedly, for a while. I.e. they're not related to the current war.


LDNR Front.

Rebel forces are continuing the assault at Mar'inka, near Donetsk. This group is allegedly laying down grenade fire to suppress enemy anti-tank teams.


Fighting continues near Rubezhnoe. The town is now in rebel hands and is apparently being hit by Ukrainian artillery.


An alleged Ukrainian munitions storage at Bakhmut was hit.


Alleged Ukrainian column destroyed near Stepnoe. Warning footage of corpses.


Battle damage in Mihailovka, a rebel village near Gorlovka.


Battle damage at the Pavlograd-2 rail station. It was allegedly a supply junction for Ukrainian troops.


Verhnetoretskoe has been taken by the rebels. Warning footage of corpses 2nd link.


Furiya UAV, Ukrainian, shot down near Izyum. I think it's the same one as last time.


Battle damage in Izyum, most of the town appears to be under Russian control.


Two abandoned Ukrainian trucks, and a ZU-23-2, were captured by LNR forces.


A strange Nona-S MT-LB hybrid (likely a 2S1 whose turret was damaged and replaced). This is probably a rebel vehicle. Nothing like this has been sighted in Russian hands, and this vehicle may be unique.


Rebel forces, assorted footage.


Mariupol'.

Continuing strikes against Azovstal' factory where Azov fighters are supposed to be holed up.


A barricade of destroyed buses, Mariupol'.


Battle damage in Mariupol'.


Russian soldiers in Mariupol'. Some of the soldiers are wearing non-standard uniforms and kit. It's possible this is a rebel formation mixed in with a Russian unit. Rebel formations usually use red armbands, Russian units use white. However it's possible this isn't the case here.


Rebel forces in Mariupol', and note the white armbands. It's possible they switched it up to avoid friendly fire incidents with Russian units assaulting the city.


An alleged Ukrainian soldier fleeing Mariupol' in women's clothes.


A civilian allegedly out of Mariupol' and an acquaintance of some Azov fighters. She says they were proud of tormenting and killing ordinary people, and were proud of it. She says they showed her a video of them blowing up a person with a grenade, who wasn't capable of resisting (presumably a POW).


An impromptu cemetery in Mariupol'.


Misc.

Destruction of a Ukrainian S-300 TEL. Note there's more then one TEL present. The one that rolled into the hangar is the one they presumably destroyed.


Ukrainian artillery positions getting hit, location unclear.


Weapons captured from a Ukrainian territorial defense unit, including an old hunting rifle and a Stugna-P ATGM.


Footage of Russian repair btlns fixing trucks after damage in Ukraine.


A Chechen btln preparing for deployment to Ukraine.

 

vonnoobie

Well-Known Member
…they must have some logistics problems.
Well as previously shown Russian logistics capacity is tiny compared to other capable militaries which best I can gather is a victim of the Soviet days when any war plan called for mobilization of every civilian asset they could get their hands on.

When you factor in the military being built around the battalion tactical group of which they have 163+ and something like 75% of them in Ukraine it leaves little to no room to strip logistical capacity from other groups as their are few others to take from and what they do would have a marginal impact.

Attempts over the years as I'm sure @Feanor would have better knowledge on have been made to rectify this but little to no improvement, seems to me at least they care more about what has the biggest bang then the personal and trucks to keep those weapons operating at Peake efficiency.
 
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STURM

Well-Known Member
Well as previously shown Russian logistics capacity is tiny compared to other capable militaries which best I can gather is a victim of the Soviet days when any war plan called for mobilization of every civilian asset they could get their hands on.
I would think that the main reason logistics became a major issue is because they didn't plan accordingly. The invasion was based on the premise that the Ukranians would only offer sporadic resistance and that it would end in days. That was the assumption.

If the Russians had expected a protracted campaign involving wide spread spirited resistance I'm sure they would have planned accordingly.
 
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T.C.P

Well-Known Member
Its been almost 2 days, and the Ukranians are still claiming the counteroffensive is going strong in Kiev, a bunch of people uploaded maps, but I am not seeing the geo tagged photos yet. They claim to have borken the Russian line near Irpen.

This a reddit link thats being parroted a lot, ingore the comments-
https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/tlci99
Is there anyway to verify any of this?
 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Let me say these 3 points for the last time — before applying sanctions to those who continue to derail the thread. This guidance is not directed at anyone in particular. Rather, it’s intended to serve as a tool for self reflection — so play nice.

One, keep on discussions topic — Russia, Ukraine, and NATO — in particular, the military tactics and mis-steps dimension. Please focus on explaining to improve education of other members reading the thread, by providing links, if appropriate.

Two, don’t let your own ego get in the way of learning from others; especially on their area of expertise.


Three, don’t argue in an unnecessary or rude manner — it detracts from content or point being made by the person posting. Substance in posts matters.
It’s unfortunate Borealis decided to ignore a Moderator’s warning, to play nice and to provide substance in the response — that he ignored.

He is banned till 8 Apr 2022. No reply to this direction is necessary.


I am still not seeing any actual real proof from all the sources here and elsewhere being followed. We have footage of armor being blown up on the Russian side, but not necessarily the personnel with it.
You asked for a source, I provided you with not only Rob Lee’s post but also the Russian news report that names the VDV losses, plus in the thread there are pictures of the send off funerals (from Russian sources). Therefore, you are engaging in lying to the forum.

Rob maintains a long but limited thread on Russian officer losses in Ukraine — he will only share information from Russian sources, either media, social media or officials, which means the family members will have been previously notified.

As others have noted, the main bias is that reporters, bloggers, and other people who like to hear their own voice have a tendency to tell stories based on things we know – as opposed to describing the unknown; and we certainly don’t know the true state of Ukrainian losses on the battlefield.
In general, most members in DT are not buying the Russian loss numbers cited by Ukraine — and there are third parities who photo ID each loss and then count them.

As I have said before, I am certain there is under reporting of Ukrainian losses.
 
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GermanHerman

Active Member
The claim that russia has lost 40.000 troops is somewhat questionable as that would be Close top 25% of their total force.

That would leave anywhere between 30-40% of their BTG's beyond combat ineffective and Replacement Units would need to be formed from the remains of decimated BTGs.

I don't know what to make of the counter offensive at Kiev yet as Ukraine has a made quite some claims about counter offensives that turned out to be nothing.

If it is true how ever it provides some credibility to the 40.000 lost.

However, there remains the question why ukraine is unable to capitalize these huge losses. Why are russians able to keep their frontlines from collapsing? Why are the ukrianans unable to penetrante and overcome the russian forces?

The most likely answer is that the ukrainian army was hit even harder then the russian given their numeral advantage at the start of the war.

This is of cause also highlighted by the fact that they are unable to lift the siege of Kherson or Mariopol. At the same time this unability puts into question the 40k lossese.

If Russia has lost 25% of their troops, how can they still maintain costly urban warfare at Mariopol? How can they still make progress at the Donbass Front? How are they still holding most of Izyum where some of the heaviest forces of Ukraine are at work.

Are all the combat effective troops left down in the south?

Once again, we will see how the counter offensive in kiev goes and get a partial answer.
 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
Sweden sends additional 5,000 anti-tank systems to Ukraine, most likely this is also AT4s (they already sent 5,000 AT4 some weeks ago). Germany says they will send 2,000 "rocket propelled grenades" -- what type could it be? teleSUR English

The UK is also sending additional 6,000 missiles, and £25m to help Ukraine pay its military and police force. Not clear what missiles will be sent, but not all will be NLAWs -- the UK has already shipped more than 4,200 NLAWs. The Guardian

The new US $800m weapons package will start shipping very soon. Biden's New Arms Package for Ukraine

As mentioned previously this package includes 800 Stinger, 2,000 Javelins, 6,000 AT4, and 1,000 M72, 100 Switchblade drones, and more. The Jerusalem Post (jpost.com)

I wonder how long the West can keep this up? In particular European countries have underfunded their defense for decades... I suspect some European countries will be hesitant to send much more without actually producing more first, since their stocks are so shallow.
 
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CumbrianRover

New Member
WRT to frostbite, when you live in places like Latvia and Slovakia, you stay in Soviet style 'blocks.'

They have community heating and you are charged per square metre irrespective of whether the room is too hot or not. So, minus 20 outside and windows are open across the blocks.

You go outside and your boots get wet, after time, the water will penetrate but you go home and daub your boots after they dry out, and dry your feet, fresh socks in the morning.

I noticed that people talk about X days in the field and forget that RusMil have been in the field for months as they prepared for the invasion.

So no 'blocks,' no community heating; Early March in the Czech Republic was cold - it will have been colder in Russia and the Ukraine; inadequate heating, poor drills on personal hygiene from inexperienced troops and even experienced troops can only carry so much in bergens - remember the Falklands 1982 and Royals were drying their socks under their armpits because their was no other heating source: that is soldiering and on top of logistics issues, poor personal admin could topple RusMil.
 
In terms of troops on the ground, Ukraine has mobilised it's nation and it's citizens are highly motivated, thus at this moment they will have huge numbers of troops in training. Russia is not mobilising it's nation as it would be policattly unwise to do so. Is we say a minimum of 6 weeks for basic training, then the first new recruits should be ready in 2 weeks.

Obviously more training is better. Skilled artillery, tank crews etc will be in short supply, however in terms of infantry Ukraine should soon have a large advantage in numbers. Russia will have more artillery, tanks, aircraft. Large numbers of Western supplied atgm should reduce the effectiveness of Russian tanks some what, dealing with superior enemy artillery and aircraft will be difficult
 

Unric

Member
Ukraine should have the advantage in numbers of light infantry so all the Manpads/atgms supplied by the west make sense but with all footage of Ukrainian artillery getting hit and smashed gbad is there anything that can be sent to replace those losses in a meaningful timeframe? I understand that something like patriot is way too complicated but just thinking for example: a M777 might be something that an ex-D20 user might be able to be rapidly trained on? (assuming they have more men than guns?) If this war keeps dragging on then there's more time for this kind of effort to bear fruit - if the training starts now. Although I for one wouldn't want to be the one manning towed artillery on the modern battlefield (which perhaps lends weight to dumping the M777s on the poor Ukrainians in the first place)
 

vonnoobie

Well-Known Member
I would think that the main reason logistics became a major issue is because they didn't plan accordingly. The invasion was based on the premise that the Ukranians would only offer sporadic resistance and that it would end in days. That was the assumption.

If the Russians had expected a protracted campaign involving wide spread spirited resistance I'm sure they would have planned accordingly.
The problem is they only have a limited size fleet of logistical vehicles in their forces which means even if they stock piled supplies along the border they can only move X amount and that amount delivered decreases the further their forces advance. Them planning accordingly would require either A. stripping the rest of the ground forces of the bulk and perhaps in cases all of their logistical vehicles or B. Commandeering civilian assets and throwing poorly trained conscripts into them. Something they haven't been able to fix in 30+ years since the Soviet Union fell apart was not going to be fixed in less then a year with better 'planning'.

The fact they had logistical troubles when invading Georgia and not much had changed since then should be a crystal clear indication of how badly the Russian ground forces are structured for a protracted campaign in depth.
 

CumbrianRover

New Member
Factually wrong
Ukraine should have the advantage in numbers of light infantry so all the Manpads/atgms supplied by the west make sense but with all footage of Ukrainian artillery getting hit and smashed gbad is there anything that can be sent to replace those losses in a meaningful timeframe? I understand that something like patriot is way too complicated but just thinking for example: a M777 might be something that an ex-D20 user might be able to be rapidly trained on? (assuming they have more men than guns?) If this war keeps dragging on then there's more time for this kind of effort to bear fruit - if the training starts now. Although I for one wouldn't want to be the one manning towed artillery on the modern battlefield (which perhaps lends weight to dumping the M777s on the poor Ukrainians in the first place)
That is an expensive piece of kit: Brit Mil wish list but ££££.

Although, I think man portable when broken down. Happy to be corrected.

I'd prefer to be on that rather than an SPG as a much reduced heat signature.
 

Milne Bay

Active Member
That is an expensive piece of kit: Brit Mil wish list but ££££.

Although, I think man portable when broken down. Happy to be corrected.

I'd prefer to be on that rather than an SPG as a much reduced heat signature.
Ummmm - No ............ and what are you thinking...........
Words fail me for a response.....
MB
 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
That is an expensive piece of kit: Brit Mil wish list but ££££.

Although, I think man portable when broken down. Happy to be corrected.

I'd prefer to be on that rather than an SPG as a much reduced heat signature.
1. Towed systems will be killed in a peer war. Self propelled is the way to go. Self propelled artillery’s role is to deliver indirect fires against both enemy and to suppress or destroy opposing artillery’s ability to deliver similar fires (known as counter-battery work). If you don’t know, read up.

2. The biggest problem with M777 155mm/39 systems is keeping the ammo supply train going. The US Marines will insert their M777 by helicopter.
 
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CumbrianRover

New Member
Nonsense, read up before posting
Ummmm - No ............ and what are you thinking...........
Words fail me for a response.....
MB
I'm happy to be corrected.

This replaced the Light Gun - man portable - but, being made of titanium is very expensive.

Originally, manufactured at Barrow in Furness for the USMC.

Please correct me.
 
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