The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[Vivendi]

Is this real ? After the way US treat Turkey on S400, kick them from F-35 program, distrurb some of Turkey defense export drive, and even still hold approval for F-16B. Now Biden team even ask Turkey on sending the S400 to Ukraine?

Don't talk yet on Sultan Erdo wiling to completely cut Turkey relationship to Russia (as Turkey keep saying they want to keep relationship with both Ukraine and Russia). Is US even consider how Turkey feeling on US various treatment to them lately ? Now they ask this?

I don't know if this is Biden administration desperation, or they simply don't read how Biden administration image in some of their 'allies' in middle east. Biden already ask Saudi for increase in Oil production, which Saudi Crown Prince basically turn him down. Now asking Sultan Erdo on this ? Is either simply arrogance and clueless, or desperation from Biden's team in reading middle east.

Not sure if you are aware, but the F-35 program consists of several partners including the UK, the Netherlands, Norway, Denmark, etc.

All partners agreed that as long as Turkey is operating the S-400 system they cannot receive the F-35.

I don't think this idea of relocating the S-400 from Turkey to Ukraine is an indication of "desperation" -- I think it's just an idea some diplomats came up with to try to kill two birds with one stone:
1. Get Turkey back to the F-35 program (and also reduce a major friction point between Turkey and other NATO countries, including those not operating F-35...) and
2. provide Ukraine with additonal defense capabilities.

I don't think it's going to happen though -- Turkey will not give up their S-400 as long as Erdogan remains in power in Turkey.

 

[Vivendi]

Video from Patrick Lancaster. He claim to be the only independent English speaking journalist behind Russian lines. This is video from Russian and Rebel control Mariupol.

There're long lines of civilian cars try leaving Mariupol. Russia media on other channels claim that the mass refugees from Mariupol, as proof that the ones that hold them in the cities in not Russian, but Ukrainian. The moment Russian control part of the City, people can leave immediately if they want.

Lancaster is controversial, see below.

Phillips works with a third pro-separatist video maker - American-born Patrick Lancaster. Lancaster also describes himself as an independent journalist, and says his work is entirely funded through crowdfunding. Despite this, he seems to have raised less than $6,500 in the past eight months.
Lancaster's videos have been featured by mainstream media outlets and he has contributed to The Telegraph and Sky News.

However, some of his reporting has been openly hostile towards Ukraine and the West. Speaking on RT in February 2015, Lancaster said that the Ukraine's current president, Petro Poroshenko, is an enemy of the people.

In November 2016, Lancaster set up an Indiegogo campaign to raise $2,000 for his reporting in eastern Ukraine. Donation incentives included a guided trip from Russia into the battle zone, which would have violated the Ukrainian border crossing law, although there's no evidence that anyone took up the offer. Lancaster recently removed this perk, after BBC Trending contacted both him and Indiegogo.

On the same crowdfunding page, Lancaster offered military souvenirs from the Ukrainian war, including pieces of shrapnel or rubble from Donetsk airport. Yet, in an email to Trending, Lancaster distanced himself from Bentley, and said that he is not a fighter or an activist in the conflict.

The communist soldier using charity sites to fund his war - BBC News

 

[STURM]

I don't think it's going to happen though -- Turkey will not give up their S-400 as long as Erdogan remains in power in Turkey.

Even If he was no longer in power I doubt it would happen.The Turks for a number of reasons need good ties with Russia. Enabling the Ukraine to get the S-400s would be considered an extremely unfriendly move by the Russians and could be counter productive to Turkish interests.
To be clear Turkey is against the invasion; has made it clear and is concerned but it also has its interests to.safeguard.

There's also the question of how really effective the S-400 would be in Ukrainian hands; plus the ability of the Russians to counter or neutralise it. If the U.S.and other countries were really intent on providing the Ukrainians with a high altitude long range system perhaps they should consider Patriot as part of a future long term assistance package.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Even If he was no longer in power I doubt it would happen.The Turks for a number of reasons need good ties with Russia. Enabling the Ukraine to get the S-400s would be considered an extremely unfriendly move by the Russians and could be counter productive to Turkish interests.
To be clear Turkey is against the invasion; has made it clear and is concerned but it also has its interests to.safeguard.

There's also the question of how really effective the S-400 would be in Ukrainian hands; plus the ability of the Russians to counter or neutralise it. If the U.S.and other countries were really intent on providing the Ukrainians with a high altitude long range system perhaps they should consider Patriot as part of a future long term assistance package.

Russian defence companies will also be happy if the Ukrainians get the Patriots for free from the US. They are now able to take a closer look to the NLAWs, Javelins and AN/TPQ-48 Lightweight Counter Mortar Radars.

I think its highly unlikely that the Turks will give away for free their expensive and most advanced air defence system they have, even if they get paid for it. The training, transport to Ukraine, installation in Ukraine....it will cost a lot of money, but like Sturm already said, if Turkey will transfer the S-400 to Ukraina, they will be betraying Russia. Its not only an unfriendly move towards Russia, but they will also then give away advanced and classified technology from the Russians.

 

[STURM]

National pride involved and I've given the reason as to why Turkey would never agree. The costs associated with delivery and training are the least of the problems and would be borne by the West.

 

[Vivendi]

Even If he was no longer in power I doubt it would happen.The Turks for a number of reasons need good ties with Russia. Enabling the Ukraine to get the S-400s would be considered an extremely unfriendly move by the Russians and could be counter productive to Turkish interests.
To be clear Turkey is against the invasion; has made it clear and is concerned but it also has its interests to.safeguard.

There's also the question of how really effective the S-400 would be in Ukrainian hands; plus the ability of the Russians to counter or neutralise it. If the U.S.and other countries were really intent on providing the Ukrainians with a high altitude long range system perhaps they should consider Patriot as part of a future long term assistance package.

I agree its not likely Turkey will send the S-400 to Ukraine even without Erdogan, however, a new Turkish government may be interested in finding a solution to the S-400/F-35 issue. Obviously there are other ways of resolving that issue without involving Ukraine. I should have been more clear on that point perhaps...

 

[STURM]

A Turkey under a different leadership would probably be more open to the idea of disposing the system but Turkey would have to be compensated and giving it up would involve certain guarantees.

Even if it goes to say Algeria or Chile; the one major catch is whether Turkey can officially transfer or sell the S-400 without Russian approval. I doubt it.

 

[QEDdeq]

Turkey is trying to pose as an honest broker. However, as a regional power at the Black Sea they have no interest in Russia taking an even more dominant regional position. Crimea is already giving them a huge strategic advantage with its deep water ports, airbases and defensible position. Now Russia occupies the Snake island which is a piece of rock but important strategically because of its closeness to the Nato's airbase at Kogalniceanu (at Romania's Black Sea coast) and NATO ports in Romania and Bulgaria. It's an ideal island for radar systems, anti-submarine etc. It will also be taken out as first target in any serious war but it can provide intel on enemy movements before a war starts and immediately after, so crucial for a missile war for example. Then Russia grabbing other ports in the Black Sea or the Sea of Azov such as Mariupol, Nikolaev or Odessa would be major strategic gains and Turkey wants to avoid that. Now of course Erdogan is BFF with Putin and he will probably never forget who stood by his side during the failed coup. So they will try to keep a balance. But eventually, if truly needed I think they could consider sending their S400 system to Ukraine. In the end, Turkey is a NATO member and helping Ukraine is also in their national interest. But for the time being I think they will keep trying to portray themselves as the honest broker.

 

[Ananda]

Turkey overall whether from Opposition or Sultan Erdo supporters are bitter on the way they see US and West treat them. It can be seen on Turkish media or even their online forums.

That's why I say it is either US Arrogance, Clueless/Insensitivity, or simply desperation from Biden's team to find something that can be seen on doing more for Ukraine. Whether any of that situation or combination, those in Washington simply has not seeing how US being seen in Middle East lately and Turkey especially.

Simply follish diplomacy from Biden's team.

 

[STURM]

Turkey is indeed a NATO member and despite wherever disagreements it still values its membership and is maintaining its commitments. At the same time it has economic ties with Russia [is not in a position to sever them], is in the same backyard and needs a certain level of Russian cooperation or understanding with regards to Syria and Libya.

 

[Ananda]

sure if you are aware, but the F-35 program consists of several partners including the UK, the Netherlands, Norway, Denmark, etc.

F-35 is US program, and US has final say and who is in or out in the Program. Do you realise that Turkey is one of Original International Partner from begining ? US kick them simply on S-400 issue (officialy), clearly shown real disregard to Turkey despite long relationship Turkey has with US.

Note: I put 'officialy' because every one knows it is Sultan Erdo that US after. However for most Turks, this is how US treat Turkey, one of NATO's important member (which is basically many US statement used to say).

Now they ask this, in disregard how Turkey still want to balance their relationship to Russia. Asking something that even scholl children will now it is asking same thing for Turkey to sever their relationship to Russia.

 

[T.C.P]

Turkey is trying to pose as an honest broker. However, as a regional power at the Black Sea they have no interest in Russia taking an even more dominant regional position. Crimea is already giving them a huge strategic advantage with its deep water ports, airbases and defensible position. Now Russia occupies the Snake island which is a piece of rock but important strategically because of its closeness to the Nato's airbase at Kogalniceanu (at Romania's Black Sea coast) and NATO ports in Romania and Bulgaria. It's an ideal island for radar systems, anti-submarine etc. It will also be taken out as first target in any serious war but it can provide intel on enemy movements before a war starts and immediately after, so crucial for a missile war for example. Then Russia grabbing other ports in the Black Sea or the Sea of Azov such as Mariupol, Nikolaev or Odessa would be major strategic gains and Turkey wants to avoid that. Now of course Erdogan is BFF with Putin and he will probably never forget who stood by his side during the failed coup. So they will try to keep a balance. But eventually, if truly needed I think they could consider sending their S400 system to Ukraine. In the end, Turkey is a NATO member and helping Ukraine is also in their national interest. But for the time being I think they will keep trying to portray themselves as the honest broker.

The main thing Turkey would think about is what would the S-400s achieve? WOuld giving them to Ukraine save Ukraine? would the S-400s alone delivered to a war torn Ukraine, with an encircled capital lead them to victory?

If not, then turkey gains almost nothing from giving them away. Turkey by supplying munitions and drones have already done a lot for Ukraine. But at the same time, they have managed to balance their relationship to russia still.

Cons of giving out S-400-
*Loses advanced air defense system, that they clearly wanted enought to risk souring relationship with other nato members
*Time and a lot of money to replace them with similar Western systems, leaving a huge gap in their air defense systems at a time of crisis
*Make Russia even more hotsile, Russia might consider this a bridge too far and start attacking Turkish proxies all of the middle east and even fund the PKK
*No guarantee that Ukraine will even be able to use S-400s as intended or have the capablity to

Pros-
Might help Ukraine slightly prolong the inevitable


Unless the US is going to do something drastic, like give up their own production slots of the JSF to turkey and help them immediately shore up their defenses, I don't see Turkey going for this.


I am of course by no means an expert on International Strategic affairs and this is just my 2 cents.

 

[Pentaprism]

Reports of lots of Ukraine Military Bases being hit during this war.

Just wondering how inhabited these Bases would be? I have this idea Bases are sitting Ducks in the age of cruise Missiles so best evacuated. Plus most of the Soldiers would be away fighting the War anyway. So motivation to hit them is mainly psycholgoical and maybe hit some stores.

But maybe this is not reality?

 

[Vivendi]

F-35 is US program, and US has final say and who is in or out in the Program. Do you realise that Turkey is one of Original International Partner from begining ? US kick them simply on S-400 issue (officialy), clearly shown real disregard to Turkey despite long relationship Turkey has with US.

Note: I put 'officialy' because every one knows it is Sultan Erdo that US after. However for most Turks, this is how US treat Turkey, one of NATO's important member (which is basically many US statement used to say).

Now they ask this, in disregard how Turkey still want to balance their relationship to Russia. Asking something that even scholl children will now it is asking same thing for Turkey to sever their relationship to Russia.

F-35 is mainly a US program, however there are international partners. I am fully aware that Turkey was a partner from the start, that does not change the fact that all other partners agreed with the US that as long as Turkey refused to find a solution that was compatible with the F-35 then there were no alternatives but kicking Turkey out. This is not showing "disregard to Turkey", this is just a consequence of the technical risks of having an F-35 partner also using S-400. There is also another aspect to this: Independent of the F-35 program all NATO countries (including Turkey) made an agreement that they would not purchase Russian military equipment. This was a NATO decision, that all NATO countries agreed to at the time. I dont remember exactly when, quite sure it was a reaction to Russia's actions, so either after 2008 or (more likely) after 2014. Turkey broke this agreement in a spectacular way when going for an advanced and sophisticated system as S-400.

Another aspect is that Turkey has been spreading disinformation about the process, claiming that the US and France/Italy "refused" to sell similar systems to Turkey. This is not what happened: Turkey was offered several systems including Patriot and SAMP/T. However Turkey made demands that the selling countries could not meet. Turkey wanted a higher level of ToT than what was possible to offer, Turkey also asked for a lower price than what the companies selling the equipment could provide. However there are limits on both how low the price can be and how much ToT can be transferred.

What Turkey did is a bit like a person going into a Rolls Royce dealership, expressing interest to buy, demand a price so low that the dealer is not able to sell at that price, and then complaint that "Rolls Royce refuse to sell to me!"

A lot of NATO members are quite frustrated with Turkey, for many reasons, the S-400 purchase was just one of many issues (another issue was when Turkey vetoed an important NATO decision relating to Baltic NATO countries, to pressure some NATO countries to meet Turkeys demands on a completely different matter.) This is somewhat OT so perhaps drop this for now.

 

[koxinga]

I think the Western media does a poor job in trying to explain or understand the positions of countries with strategic considerations that are interlocked with Russia (i.e., Turkey, Israel, India)

 

[Vivendi]

I think the Western media does a poor job in trying to explain or understand the positions of countries with strategic considerations that are interlocked with Russia (i.e., Turkey, Israel, India)

I think media in almost all countries (including Western, but even more so media in Turkey, India, Russia, etc.) are doing a poor job at explaining International Law, war crimes, and the consequences of ignoring such crimes for political reasons.

Whenever these basic laws (as defined and recognized by the UN and International Court) are broken the world should condemn, and punish. The name and citizenship of the people committing the crime should not matter. This unfortunately is not the situation today, however, if we want to move in that direction, we should start doing so. Now. Not in 10 years or 100 years.

The war in Ukraine is a "wake-up call" for Europe in many ways. Hopefully this will lead to European countries reacting strongly also the next time International Law has been broken and war crimes are being committed, independent of who is committing the crime and where it happens. By being always consequent in reacting to such events, we can hopefully move away from the disgusting habit of letting politics determine how to react to these crimes, and this will then lead to less appetite for committing such crimes in the first place, which is the ultimate goal.

 

[Vivendi]

CNN writes on their live feed: ("Bombs falling every 10 minutes," says Ukrainian officer in Mariupol (cnn.com) )

German Finance Minister Annalena Baerbock said the European Union will increase financial aid and delivery of weapons to Ukraine. "We will increase financial means for the purchase of military goods to 1 billion euros, in order to make clear, we stand with full solidarity on Ukraine's side, we stand for the protection of the civil population in Ukraine," Baerbock told reporters.

Increasing military support from 450 million EUR to 1Billion EUR was mentioned more than a week ago -- it seems they now have decided to actually implement it. One question I have is if EU has sufficient relevant "military goods" to deliver within the timeframes that Ukraine would need them...

Anyway, this is a strong commitment to supporting Ukraine and together with significant military support from the US and the UK (and some smaller donators including Australia, Canada, Norway, New Zealand) Ukraine should be able to keep going for quite some time.

Australia: additional $21million (total $91 million) Additional support for Ukraine | Prime Minister of Australia (pm.gov.au)
Canada: additional $25 million (total of $32 million(?)) Canada to send additional $25 million in protective military gear to Ukraine | CBC News
New Zealand: $5 million New Zealand donates body armour and helmets to Ukraine, $5 million to NATO, breaking from traditional aid funding | Newshub

 

[STURM]

also the next time International Law has been broken and war crimes are being committed, independent of who is committing the crime and where it happens.

Well I certainly hope so because that's the way it should be but I'll believe it when I actually see it. All.said and done the West has a history of being extremely selective when it comes to dispensing justice and holding countries and people accountable.

Anyway, this is a strong commitment to supporting Ukraine and together with significant military support from the US and the UK (and some smaller donators including Australia, Canada, Norway, New Zealand) Ukraine should be able to keep going for quite some time

There has always been a strong commitment towards the Ukraine; from Day One. Whether all this assistance actually makes a difference in the long run however really remains to be seen.[/QUOTE]

 

[GermanHerman]

CNN writes on their live feed: ("Bombs falling every 10 minutes," says Ukrainian officer in Mariupol (cnn.com) )

German Finance Minister Annalena Baerbock said the...

Baerbock is Foreign Minister, shows the quality of reporting one can expect from CNN and co.

Interesting footage of the strike on the Mall including some footage of it's use as depot for Grads:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505929082441277443

 

[Vivendi]

Well I certainly hope so because that's the way it should be but I'll believe it when I actually see it. All.said and done the West has a history of being extremely selective when it comes to dispensing justice and holding countries and people accountable.

Also Asian countries has a history of being extremely selective in this regard, unfortunately. Several countries can and should do better.

There has always been a strong commitment towards the Ukraine; from Day One. Whether all this assistance actually makes a difference in the long run however really remains to be seen.

Doubling the EU military aid from roughly 500million to 1billion a bit more than 3 weeks after the war started is in my opinion highly significant and worth noting. This in itself will probably not make a difference in the long run, that's why it's important to keep in mind the significant contributions from others (in particular the US but also the UK). Also, keep in mind EU has financial resources to contribute much more also in the future, the question is if military equipment will be readily available. The same can be said of Russia of course.