The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[GermanHerman]

If you are going to Discount every source that is biased in this war then there won't be much for you to read in this thread. What matters is whether or not they are factually correct




If you question his decisions, I suggest you contact him with the specific questions. You are assuming he has no further info beyond the picture, my experience has been that he does. He and whoever is working with him are sorting through huge amounts of information so it wouldn't surprise me that for the sake of getting everything listed he doesn't document everything on his website. I've found him to be responsive to messages and questions like that. I have also seen him recategorize losses and remove some entirely. If you don't have any argument beyond "you're biased", I would be prepared to be either ignored or embarrassed. I've seen him do that too.

I didng say that he dosnt have any further info, I said he dosnt provide any.

And this is combined with demonstrated bias enough to not treat his list as religious as a lot of people do.

You can argue that we can always double check him, but at the same time you admit that it's a huge pile of material so who will do that? The ordinary person cant distinguish between a T-80 and a T-72, especially when it's burned down and blown up.

One woule think people can distinguish a mig29 from a helicopter yet this:

https://i.postimg.cc/XYtgd1XH/g68.png

Was on his list as russian helicopter loss for quite some while. Why? Because Twitter claimed it was, because it seemed plausable enough. The fact is he had no clue but decided to just put it up as russian loss.

Yet till this day we miss this mig 29's although there is clear evidence of their destruction:

New Footage Shows One Fifth of Ukraine’s MiG-29 Fleet Destroyed in One Russian Missile Strike

Within 48 hours of the initiation of a Russian military campaign in neighbouring Ukraine, footage emerged of a Ukrainian airfield showing six MiG-29 fighters seriously

militarywatchmagazine.com

How come they are not counted? Even Wikipedia has them included in its list and no one here would think wikipedia is a great source for anything.

 

[Steinmetz]

For those interested, the Captain of the An-225 Mriya, Dmytro Antonov, posts regular war updates on his YouTube channel. He said in a previous video that he is still in Kiev, looking after his 85-year-old mother. He's quite livid with the situation, as you can imagine, but is of high morale and spirits. I feel like it's a good indication of how the average Ukrainian feels about the situation. Plus, there is a ton of archived footage, cockpit point of view from his past flights and operations, including the final flight of the An-225. Click CC for English Subs.

 

[John Fedup]

Sadly his suggestion a new An-225 will be built is unlikely.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Ukraine has domestic Neptune AShMs

Considering Ukraine hasn't fired anything bigger than rocket artillery on ships, can we assume Russia targeted AShM caches early on and it went unreported?

 

[Feanor]

Considering Ukraine hasn't fired anything bigger than rocket artillery on ships, can we assume Russia targeted AShM caches early on and it went unreported?

Maybe. Or maybe they don't work as advertised. It's hard to say. Russian ships are hanging out very close to the coast so I dont imagine it's a range issue.

Sadly his suggestion a new An-225 will be built is unlikely.

It wasn't a super useful aircraft to begin with. It's real purpose was for the Soviet space program to carry the Buran shuttles on launches. The Buran-Mriya complex. Without that, it's not in particularly high demand.

 

[Twain]

I didng say that he dosnt have any further info, I said he dosnt provide any.

And this is combined with demonstrated bias enough to not treat his list as religious as a lot of people do.

I don't treat it as religious but it is a LOT better than anything else out there. and the vast majority of the entries are correctly done.

You can argue that we can always double check him, but at the same time you admit that it's a huge pile of material so who will do that? The ordinary person cant distinguish between a T-80 and a T-72, especially when it's burned down and blown up.

One woule think people can distinguish a mig29 from a helicopter yet this:

https://i.postimg.cc/XYtgd1XH/g68.png

Was on his list as russian helicopter loss for quite some while. Why? Because Twitter claimed it was, because it seemed plausable enough. The fact is he had no clue but decided to just put it up as russian loss.

I see it on the webpage as a MIG 29 and a Ukranian loss, so you're mad that he corrected an error? just like I said he was doing?

Yet till this day we miss this mig 29's although there is clear evidence of their destruction:

New Footage Shows One Fifth of Ukraine’s MiG-29 Fleet Destroyed in One Russian Missile Strike

Within 48 hours of the initiation of a Russian military campaign in neighbouring Ukraine, footage emerged of a Ukrainian airfield showing six MiG-29 fighters seriously

militarywatchmagazine.com

How come they are not counted? Even Wikipedia has them included in its list and no one here would think wikipedia is a great source for anything.

I don't know how to make it anymore clear, ASK HIM, he responds to DM's and his facebook, email etc. are on his webpage. Like it or not he gets it right a LOT more often than he doesn't, If you have info that differs from his he outright ASKS people to talk to him so he can correct the entry. Instead of trying to make the list more accurate all you are doing is complaining. Like much of life, you can be part of the problem or part of the solution.

I'd also suggest you check the criteria for listing something, IT's on his webpage and answers several of the things you are complaining about

 

[HelBattery]

A lot of talk about infowar here - unconfirmed reports, questionable stats, biased comments.
However, there is also something what I would call "actual communication", beyond the propaganda spread by the media on both sides. And what fits into this perfectly is IMO the missile strike on Yavoriv camp/base. Good intel, good execution. The effect? Message received.

A U.S. Army veteran who also survived the Russian missile strike on Yavoriv and subsequently left the country stated: “I survived because the missiles struck the hard structures instead of the tents where I was,” adding that over two thirds of Western volunteers decided to leave immediately. Regarding the calibre of the Western volunteers he stated: “Some were professional soldiers and are still competent. Others are drunks, people with the most marginal military experience, and people who really should not have come at all.” Other survivors advised potential future volunteers that the “situation is absolutely f***ed,” stressing: “Go ahead and join the legion, by all means, but be very aware of how bad Kyiv is going to get and be aware that Russians have warplanes and you will have next to nothing. Be very acceptant of the possibility of death. Those of us who left, including SF (special forces) operators from multiple countries, are simply risk mitigating. No one wants to die in an unfair fight, and after getting absolutely f***ing pummelled by massive cruise missiles today – yeah I kind of want people to think twice before turning their life upside down to go and volunteer.” Regarding the state of Ukrainian forces, he stated: “They’re sending untrained guys to the front with little ammo and s**t AKs and they’re getting killed … The guys who are there now will all be going to Kyiv and many will die, the legion is totally outgunned and has a few crazy Ukrainian leaders.”

Western Combatants Flee Ukraine After Russian Strike Kills Dozens: A Different Kind of War to Iraq or Afghanistan (militarywatchmagazine.com)

Another message:

NATO’s Deadliest Sniper ‘the Guardian’ Killed Fighting in Ukraine - Reports (militarywatchmagazine.com)

The most notable reported death of a Western combatant was a veteran of the NATO war in Afghanistan from the Royal Canadian Infantry’s 22nd Regiment, the sniper known in Arabic as Wali - or ‘the Guardian,’ who reportedly died within days of entering Ukraine. Having served from 2009 to 2011, and subsequently volunteered with Kurdish militias to fight the Islamic State terror group, ’the Guardian’ gained the title of NATO’s deadliest sniper with some reports indicating he held a record of 40 kills in a day. The circumstances of his death remain unknown. ‘The Guardian's' case reflects a wider phenomenon - namely that while Western personnel have considerable experience operating in low intensity conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan with limited firepower beyond firearms, even limited involvement in Ukraine represents an entirely different kind of warfare for which even veterans with considerable experience in counterinsurgency wars are far from prepared.

 

[John Fedup]

Maybe. Or maybe they don't work as advertised. It's hard to say. Russian ships are hanging out very close to the coast so I dont imagine it's a range issue.



It wasn't a super useful aircraft to begin with. It's real purpose was for the Soviet space program to carry the Buran shuttles on launches. The Buran-Mriya complex. Without that, it's not in particularly high demand.

The An-225 was useful for oversized heavy cargo albeit an application with limited demand. Only saw it once at the height of the COVID epidemic here when it delivered PPE from China.

 

[Redlands18]

The An-225 was useful for oversized heavy cargo albeit an application with limited demand. Only saw it once at the height of the COVID epidemic here when it delivered PPE from China.

It is still a very sad day for Aviation history, it was a unique one off Aircraft

 

[Boagrius]

When I first saw these, I wondered that, but it also occurred to me 1) they have guided variants ( eg Ugroza tohugh ripple numbers would have to be looked into to discount this I guess) of these, do they not? If so, would you not use them in this case, negating the stated downsides and b) it occurred to me we are assuming the payload type here.... these rockets do also have other non-kinetic payload functions do they not? Like S-8TsM, OFP1 variants, S-8S, the chaff variants, and I assumed a number of decoy and transmitter variants also?

It seems rather remarkable that a) these (KA-52, MI-28) platforms be lobbing S-8/S-5/S-13 rockets..given the artillery proliferation, and also alternative munitions...If you are that unfussy about dispersal, just about anything fired from the ground art-wise would suffice and be better from cost/benefit? There must be an alternative motive for doing this I think. I dont know enough about the FAE warheads and their use in this application to know if this is a possible reason?

Maybe, maybe not. I'm really just applying Occam's Razor here. Regardless of the type of rocket used, the relatively high-speed ingress combined with the unusual lofted rocket shots and the use of flares strikes me as a strong indication that they are trying to shoot from as far away as possible, reducing exposure to IR guided SAMs. Given that the theatre is now likely to be awash with various types of IR-guided MANPADS... yeah, wouldn't be surprised to find the behaviour and the threat are connected.

 

[GermanHerman]

I don't treat it as religious but it is a LOT better than anything else out there. and the vast majority of the entries are correctly done.

I see it on the webpage as a MIG 29 and a Ukranian loss, so you're mad that he corrected an error? just like I said he was doing?

I don't know how to make it anymore clear, ASK HIM, he responds to DM's and his facebook, email etc. are on his webpage. Like it or not he gets it right a LOT more often than he doesn't, If you have info that differs from his he outright ASKS people to talk to him so he can correct the entry. Instead of trying to make the list more accurate all you are doing is complaining. Like much of life, you can be part of the problem or part of the solution.

I'd also suggest you check the criteria for listing something, IT's on his webpage and answers several of the things you are complaining about

Why are you SCREAMING at me?
Where do you get that I'm "mad he corrected a mistake"?

I get the Impression you dont get at all what I'm talking about and get very worked up about something I did never say or imply.

I think I'll disengage from this conversation as I feel like this is not beneficial to the threat though.

 

[cdxbow]

Mr Putin spoke with the Turkish President yesterday Ukraine conflict: Putin lays out his demands in Turkish phone call - BBC News in which they repeated the same 'offer' as previously stated. I see little movement in Russian demands. Ukraine would need be completely at Russia's mercy, and they would have bled for nought. To me it's not really a deal, it would effectively be a capitulation, Ukraine won't accept that. I think they know time is not on Mr Putin's side and will hang on for a better deal. Unless the Russians can crush the Ukrainians I expect the war to continue for months.

 

[VZ Code]

There was a kalibr missile strike on a Ukrainian military barracks in Nikolayev in which appears to have caused a minimum of 50+ KIA, some report that the KIA is over 100+. There are some photos and videos of soldiers looking through the rubble and some bodies that are visible on the floor.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504913610648207370

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504916357384650764

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504943704745914378

This is a video from Kadyrov of Chechen special forces and Azov battalion forces engaged in a firefight in Mariupol.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504801130492137472

The manhunt for Azov Bandera soldiers attempting to flee the city through the refugee corridors is still ongoing.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504852596401614854

 

[T.C.P]

There was a kalibr missile strike on a Ukrainian military barracks in Nikolayev in which appears to have caused a minimum of 50+ KIA, some report that the KIA is over 100+. There are some photos and videos of soldiers looking through the rubble and some bodies that are visible on the floor.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504913610648207370

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504916357384650764

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504943704745914378

This is a video from Kadyrov of Chechen special forces and Azov battalion forces engaged in a firefight in Mariupol.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504801130492137472

The manhunt for Azov Bandera soldiers attempting to flee the city through the refugee corridors is still ongoing.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1504852596401614854

I am looking for more news about this missile strike can't seem to find any. When they struck tgat base near poland a few days ago the media was full of reports of that attack.

This strike seems to have been just as if not more effective, I am surprised I can't find any news about it.

 

[Feanor]

I am looking for more news about this missile strike can't seem to find any. When they struck tgat base near poland a few days ago the media was full of reports of that attack.

This strike seems to have been just as if not more effective, I am surprised I can't find any news about it.

There have been few strikes of similar impact, including one against a territorial defense gathering point, and another against a barracks. I believe I reported them above, dozens of casualties. If this one really is in the hundreds it will be the largest, but not otherwise that remarkable. Western reporting on this is extremely skewed. Things like statements from foreign volunteers about the "reception" they got from Ukrainian authorities, the lack of equipment, the disorganization, the attempts to send them to the front unprepared and unequipped, are all not being reported. This is a large part of why I do these updates.

 

[T.C.P]

There have been few strikes of similar impact, including one against a territorial defense gathering point, and another against a barracks. I believe I reported them above, dozens of casualties. If this one really is in the hundreds it will be the largest, but not otherwise that remarkable. Western reporting on this is extremely skewed. Things like statements from foreign volunteers about the "reception" they got from Ukrainian authorities, the lack of equipment, the disorganization, the attempts to send them to the front unprepared and unequipped, are all not being reported. This is a large part of why I do these updates.

I really appreciate your updates, they are literally the only consistent source of news I have about Russian progress.
Its just that on those tweets they mention how Ukraine accepts 30+KIA and the Swiss report 50+, but I am seeing nothing, I even searched for that in a few other forums.

Some one made a post on reddit with some photos of this stirke on combat footage and it got removed (as expected). During the other big strikes, there were some semblance of reportage, on this one there seems to be none.

 

[Feanor]

I really appreciate your updates, they are literally the only consistent source of news I have about Russian progress.
Its just that on those tweets they mention how Ukraine accepts 30+KIA and the Swiss report 50+, but I am seeing nothing, I even searched for that in a few other forums.

Some one made a post on reddit with some photos of this stirke on combat footage and it got removed (as expected). During the other big strikes, there were some semblance of reportage, on this one there seems to be none.

I'm going to do an update. I'll let you know if I see any traces of it.

 

[ngatimozart]

Why are you SCREAMING at me?
Where do you get that I'm "mad he corrected a mistake"?

I get the Impression you dont get at all what I'm talking about and get very worked up about something I did never say or imply.

I think I'll disengage from this conversation as I feel like this is not beneficial to the threat though.

Calm down. There is no need to get upset. If you want to discuss the friction between you and @Twain take it off the open Forum and do it via Personal Messages between the two of you.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

I really appreciate your updates, they are literally the only consistent source of news I have about Russian progress.
Its just that on those tweets they mention how Ukraine accepts 30+KIA and the Swiss report 50+, but I am seeing nothing, I even searched for that in a few other forums.

Some one made a post on reddit with some photos of this stirke on combat footage and it got removed (as expected). During the other big strikes, there were some semblance of reportage, on this one there seems to be none.

This one is Dutch. Its quite unique nos.nl reports about Russian militairy successes. Sadly also nos.nl prefer to demonize Russians.

'Ruim 4000 mensen gevlucht uit Marioepol' • '115 slachtoffers geborgen in Mykolajiv'

In dit liveblog vind je de laatste ontwikkelingen rondom de oorlog in Oekraïne.

nos.nl

"Tientallen doden en gewonden bij raketaanval in Mykolaïv"

 

[ngatimozart]

A lot of talk about infowar here - unconfirmed reports, questionable stats, biased comments.
However, there is also something what I would call "actual communication", beyond the propaganda spread by the media on both sides. And what fits into this perfectly is IMO the missile strike on Yavoriv camp/base. Good intel, good execution. The effect? Message received.



Western Combatants Flee Ukraine After Russian Strike Kills Dozens: A Different Kind of War to Iraq or Afghanistan (militarywatchmagazine.com)

Another message:

NATO’s Deadliest Sniper ‘the Guardian’ Killed Fighting in Ukraine - Reports (militarywatchmagazine.com)

Military Watch isn't a credible source. In the past there have been reports of it copy and pasting RT reports and the two articles that you link to strongly suggest Russian disinformation.