The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Ananda

The Bunker Group
have explained NATO is purely a defense organization, tasked with protecting NATO members. It is also based on consensus
You know you're the type of guy that believe NATO can't do no wrong. So there are Russian on the other side will believe otherwise. Your argument is pointless because you do not want to see why Russian thinking differently, and keep thinking this is only Putin.

There are Russian that left because of War, and don't want to be drag on. However there are more Russian that stay and some of them support and volunteer to war.

For me, I'm try to see two sides thinking. When you see both side thinking, you can see everything not Black and White as you try to picture and argue here.
 
So allowing a country to apply for membership in NATO is "aggression" against Russia? Why? As I have explained NATO is purely a defense organization, tasked with protecting NATO members. It is also based on consensus. This means that NATO cannot launch an attack on Russia unless countries like Germany, Belgium, Italy, Bulgaria and Luxembourg all agree to launching such an attack. If you know anything about European countries and how much they value peace you would have realized how bizarre such a claim actually is. That Russia is claiming otherwise does not change this fact.
This "purely defense organisation" conducted purely offensive campaign in Yugoslavia in 1999. Or NATO was defending itself (any member country) against Yugoslavian aggression?
And what about a multi-state NATO-led military intervention in Libya?
 

koxinga

Well-Known Member
So allowing a country to apply for membership in NATO is "aggression" against Russia? Why? As I have explained NATO is purely a defense organization, tasked with protecting NATO members.
Your definition of "aggression" is the possibility of a direct military threat on Russia, which is a narrow way of perceiving what countries may deem as threats to their national security.

Even defensive systems like Aegis Ashore for example can be perceived as a threats. Historically, we have other examples like the Cypriot S-300 crisis in the late 1990s. Defensive air-defense systems, purchased and deployed by a sovereign country to protect their airspace but other countries views as a threat.

At best, the argument can be made that NATO will not be the first to attack Russia (whether the Russians believe that is another matter altogether). However, practically, the Russians perceive that NATO's presence at its borders will limit political and military options and influence in Europe. That is the "aggression" from the Russian perspective, not the classical definition of military action.
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
I was under the distinct impression that the Ukraine had looked and expressed an interest in NATO membership way before 2014.
Popular opinion and political leadership are two different things. Ukraine's elites have been looking for NATO membership for a long time. The population less so.

So allowing a country to apply for membership in NATO is "aggression" against Russia? Why? As I have explained NATO is purely a defense organization, tasked with protecting NATO members. It is also based on consensus. This means that NATO cannot launch an attack on Russia unless countries like Germany, Belgium, Italy, Bulgaria and Luxembourg all agree to launching such an attack. If you know anything about European countries and how much they value peace you would have realized how bizarre such a claim actually is. That Russia is claiming otherwise does not change this fact.
Good point. Counterpoint - Yugoslavia. And it's not just that NATO intervened, it's how NATO intervened, and on whose side, or rather even the fact that they took sides. It wasn't exactly a humanitarian effort. I think that had a lot to do with setting Russia down it's current path and how Russia and Russians view NATO today.
 
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Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
Ukraine should agree in principle to not join NATO, rebuild, amass an army that can deter Russia, and then join NATO. Can it be done in 20 years? Maybe.
 
Can it be done at all? One of Russia's requirements is demilitarization. I suspect the intent is to maintain vulnerability to Russian intervention institutionally.
This is how it seems. And probably Putin does not want a repeat of the "Minsk agreements" and problems with "interpretation" of the terms.The consequence of this is a stalemate in the ceasefire talks. Since the beginning of the talks, the Russians have been repeating the same mantra.
 

Twain

Active Member
You know you're the type of guy that believe NATO can't do no wrong. So there are Russian on the other side will believe otherwise. Your argument is pointless because you do not want to see why Russian thinking differently, and keep thinking this is only Putin.

There are Russian that left because of War, and don't want to be drag on. However there are more Russian that stay and some of them support and volunteer to war.

For me, I'm try to see two sides thinking. When you see both side thinking, you can see everything not Black and White as you try to picture and argue here.
For the sake of discussion, let's accept that russia feared the possibility of a NATO member or in this case just a hostile country on their border and were justified in invading Ukraine. If that is the criteria for Russia to invade a sovereign nation, who else is on the list of nations that they can justifiably invade? The Baltic states ? Poland?
Finland and Sweden now that they are seriously considering joining NATO? Turkey, just a stones throw across the water? Iran? Mongolia? Japan? maybe the US should cede Alaska to Russia too?

Hopefully you see the flaws in your logic here.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
You know you're the type of guy that believe NATO can't do no wrong. So there are Russian on the other side will believe otherwise. Your argument is pointless because you do not want to see why Russian thinking differently, and keep thinking this is only Putin.

There are Russian that left because of War, and don't want to be drag on. However there are more Russian that stay and some of them support and volunteer to war.

For me, I'm try to see two sides thinking. When you see both side thinking, you can see everything not Black and White as you try to picture and argue here.
I seriously doubt many Russians were in favour of attacking Ukraine and with body bags returning home, there will be even fewer, especially as the economy tanks. Mind you, it doesn’t matter as Putin isn’t concerned with Russian public opinion….yet.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
Hopefully you see the flaws in your logic here.
No I'm not. Because what you point out it is not my Logic. I try to see both side. Your Logic (which is Western Logic) saying that after attacking Ukraine, Putin will not stop.

The Russian will say that's part of flaw Western Logic. Russian will argue Ukraine is different situation then attacking those who already in Nato. They're attacking Ukraine because Ukraine is the "red line" that should not be tempted to join Nato. Attacking those already in Nato is just Western paranoia.

West going to say it is just Russian Paranoia, that Nato going to strangle Russia. On the other hand Russian says if West does not want to strangle Russia, why expanding to east instead disbanding Nato ?

Thus basically despite talking Cold War's already ended, Both West and Russia basically still having Cold War Mentality. Both still see each other as adversaries. Thus Ukraine is part of consequences of mentality on both side.

West saying Russia has no right to attack one sovereign nation and change their border. Russian will say NATO doing the same thing with Serbia by practically carving Kosovo out (which's basically already become seperate state entity thanks to NATO).

So every side has their own perpective. As long as they don't try to compromise on each own perpective, then conflicts escalation that's going to happen. That's my logic.

For me , I just hope this Cold War 2.0 does not turn Hot. Cold War 2.0 are inevitable because both side still in cold war mentality. So Cold War 2.0 already slowly in making anyway, and now just burst out.
 

Rob c

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
Can it be done at all? One of Russia's requirements is demilitarization. I suspect the intent is to maintain vulnerability to Russian intervention institutionally.
I think that the NATO membership problem is just an excuse by Putin for the war. IMHO Putin just wants total control over Ukraine in what to me appears to be his long term vision of grabbing back as much of the old USSR as possible. The western nations let him get away with successive grabs of control over the years under the excuse of protecting ethnic Russian populations out side of Russia without serious consequences and this was an expansion on this. This comes straight out of Adolf Hitters play book and most of the world leaders were acting like Neville Chamberlain and while the world is starting to wake up, we are still waiting for a Winston Churchill.
One has only to look back at the 1990's to see that when Russia was at it's weakest that there was no attempt by NATO to threaten Russia and it was as Russian military power increased that the former Warsaw pact countries started to join NATO. and the numbers steadily increased as Russian military power increased. This increase is in part driven by fear and this is what makes Putin's claims about NATO membership rather hollow as his actions have only increased this fear.
 
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oldsig127

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
Good point. Counterpoint - Yugoslavia. And it's not just that NATO intervened, it's how NATO intervened, and on whose side, or rather even the fact that they took sides. It wasn't exactly a humanitarian effort. I think that had a lot to do with setting Russia down it's current path and how Russia and Russians view NATO today.
My age is showing badly. Were the original external interventions in Yugoslavia made by UN forces under multiple resolutions by the Security Council, and then UNPROFOR was replaced under another SC resolution which substituted the NATO led IFOR with some new and some old tasks ?

Or are we talking a different NATO adventure?

oldsig
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
Can it be done at all? One of Russia's requirements is demilitarization. I suspect the intent is to maintain vulnerability to Russian intervention institutionally.
I said it in the context of some unconfirmed reports that Ukraine might accept neutrality but that disarmament is off the table.
 

Twain

Active Member
No I'm not. Because what you point out it is not my Logic. I try to see both side. Your Logic (which is Western Logic) saying that after attacking Ukraine, Putin will not stop.
He hasn't stopped so far, why is there any reason to believe he will suddenly stop now?

The Russian will say that's part of flaw Western Logic. Russian will argue Ukraine is different situation then attacking those who already in Nato. They're attacking Ukraine because Ukraine is the "red line" that should not be tempted to join Nato. Attacking those already in Nato is just Western paranoia.
Putin has also threatened Sweden and Finland over their inclinations to join NATO, so are they now free game? Putin should be allowed to attack both because they MIGHT join NATO?

West going to say it is just Russian Paranoia, that Nato going to strangle Russia. On the other hand Russian says if West does not want to strangle Russia, why expanding to east instead disbanding Nato ?
Looks to me like what is happening in Ukraine right now is the best answer to not disbanding NATO. Putin has proved NATO right by invading Ukraine

Thus basically despite talking Cold War's already ended, Both West and Russia basically still having Cold War Mentality. Both still see each other as adversaries. Thus Ukraine is part of consequences of mentality on both side.

West saying Russia has no right to attack one sovereign nation and change their border. Russian will say NATO doing the same thing with Serbia by practically carving Kosovo out (which's basically already become seperate state entity thanks to NATO).
This type argument has been brought up a lot

But what about The cuban missile crisis?
But What about Serbia?
But what about Iraq?

As if this somehow justifies russia invading Ukraine. I have different opinions about each of these, some were good moves some weren't, to keep it short and sweet, two wrongs don't make a right. "someone else did something bad so it's perfectly fine if I behave just as badly. It's an intellectually weak argument and is only used to avoid uncomfortable facts.

The other huge flaw in the position is that each of these events is different, trying to throw them all into one group and claim all of them are the same is ignoring all the differences between them, some subtle and some blatant, but that is a discussion for another thread.

So every side has their own perpective. As long as they don't try to compromise on each own perpective, then conflicts escalation that's going to happen. That's my logic.

For me , I just hope this Cold War 2.0 does not turn Hot. Cold War 2.0 are inevitable because both side still in cold war mentality. So Cold War 2.0 already slowly in making anyway, and now just burst out.
So your compromise is for Ukraine to capitulate, surrender control of their own country to a puppet government? What is Russia's compromise? Russia won't kill quite as many of them?

One last thing, Despite all the talk, Ukraine wasn't getting into Nato for the foreseeable future, "We must invade because Ukraine is joining NATO" is just another lie used to justify the invasion.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
I said it in the context of some unconfirmed reports that Ukraine might accept neutrality but that disarmament is off the table.
I suspect no real negotiations are possible. The positions apear unreconcilable and the only question is whether Ukrainian leadership will bow to the pressure of military action and border-line capitulate.

My age is showing badly. Were the original external interventions in Yugoslavia made by UN forces under multiple resolutions by the Security Council, and then UNPROFOR was replaced under another SC resolution which substituted the NATO led IFOR with some new and some old tasks ?

Or are we talking a different NATO adventure?

oldsig
I'm assuming you're referring to Operation Deliberate Force. And yes that one certainly didn't help (though again it wasn't so much the fact that action was taken, rather the nature of it, NATO essentially picked sides). But what really sealed the deal was the '99 campaign against Yugoslav forces during the Kosovo War.
 

Stuart M

Well-Known Member
I wonder if Putin has been looking into Finland's status during the cold war and how to apply something like that to Ukraine?
 

swerve

Super Moderator
The photos gave the impression all or most of the bodies were not encased in anything other than a loose sheet or tarp, with no attempt made to even twist the sheet so the body did not so easily fall out before dumping. This would indicate a total breakdown of organization and loss of humanity if the bodies were those of fellow citizens. While the situation in Mariupol is indeed dire and utterly heartbraking, one would not expect to see such total breakdown, at least not yet.

After viewing the video, I heard what I expect to hear (crews organizationed by municipal authorities for the task) and saw what I would expect to see. As for the bodies with little to no covering in the photos, several scenarios are possible, all of which are tragic.
Most of what I've seen resembled what that video shows, i.e. an organised group & proper body bags (at least, for most bodies).
 

swerve

Super Moderator
...Putin clearly put that he wants to safe guard Russian separatist in Donetsk and Luhansk, and safe guard Crimea. My opinion by looking on that, he at least wants to secure four oblast Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson. The last two Oblast is to secure Dnyper water access to Crimea, plus by that he can control all sea of azov. In the end seems Crimea security is the main goal.

Don't see they are prepared for occupation of whole Ukraine. As long as he secure Crimea security including the water access plus Russian separatist in Donetsk and Luhansk, and Ukraine guarantee to stay neutral, he can claim "mission accomplished".

Again this's just my opinion based on how their are moving and how Putin always put security of Russian in Crimea and Luhansk and Donetsk as unconditional goals.
But he's said that he wants Ukraine "demilitarised" & "denazified" & denied that Ukraine is a real country, or that there is a distinct Ukrainian identity.
 
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