The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[STURM]

On the other hand the terain in Afghanistan border are much more challanging, while Ukraine-Poland border is much more flat and recognisable.

Yes but nobody's suggesting that the Russians are going to do in Poland what they did in Pakistan. For one the Russians don't control the Ukrainian side of the border; at least not yet. Also, the countryside may be flat and less porous compared to the Afghan/Pakistan border but this also makes it easier to observe things. Another factor is that supplies into Afghanistan came mainly or only via Pakistan. If they really had to NATO could send in stuff via other countries which share a border with the UKraine.

Russian seems going to wait until the supply entering Ukraine.

They did largely the same in.Afghanistan. Local spies/informers would provide advance warning and Spetsnaz or air power or both; would interdict supply caravans once they crossed.

Things could escalate very quickly if Russia interferes with Ukraine weapons shipments inside of a NATO country.

The Russians will.probably do things well inside Ukrainian territory rather than on NATO soil.

 

[Twain]

Neither the US nor the Ukraine are actualy trustworthy sources for these kind of information in my opinion.

Especially Ukraine has shown to be extremly unreliable.

So If these claims cant be backed up by video I wouldnt take them at face value although I dont doubt that moral is somewhat low.

That's essentially an impossible standard to meet. Most of the vids and pictures are coming from Ukrainian sources and it's highly unlikely that Russian troops are going to try to abandon their vehicle in sight of a Ukrainian shooting video of them. They are going to find some place with no one around, hence all the vehicles found among trees.

The expired rations and food shortages are fairly easy to document though

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503032978481590282

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498423176098844673

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501593272187301892

 

[GermanHerman]

That's essentially an impossible standard to meet. Most of the vids and pictures are coming from Ukrainian sources and it's highly unlikely that Russian troops are going to try to abandon their vehicle in sight of a Ukrainian shooting video of them. They are going to find some place with no one around, hence all the vehicles found among trees.

The expired rations and food shortages are fairly easy to document though

I don't question the expired rations or the shortages of supplies.

But you cant realy proof low moral with a bad supply situation per se. Moral among Iraqi troops was low in 2003 and as a consequence we saw mass surrender, there is no indication of that happening in ukraine or is there?

I would hold off on any judgment untill we see more or clearer evidence of what is actualy happening.

 

[STURM]

Another video which well worth watching. Lots of interesting and pertinent points made. One of the speakers also spends some time on how ordinary Russians view things; most do not understand Putin's highly bizarre speeches and claims but nonetheless agree with some of the things he has been doing and saying; especially the need to stand up to NATO about its expansion from the 1990's. Mention is also made about Putin's essay last July in which be spoke about the Ukraine not being a real.country and ordered that it be read by military personnel.

 

[John Fedup]

That's essentially an impossible standard to meet. Most of the vids and pictures are coming from Ukrainian sources and it's highly unlikely that Russian troops are going to try to abandon their vehicle in sight of a Ukrainian shooting video of them. They are going to find some place with no one around, hence all the vehicles found among trees.

The expired rations and food shortages are fairly easy to document though

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503032978481590282

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498423176098844673

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501593272187301892

If these foraging missions are wide spread then Russian logistics are in sad shape.

 

[John Fedup]

I don't question the expired rations or the shortages of supplies.

But you cant realy proof low moral with a bad supply situation per se. Moral among Iraqi troops was low in 2003 and as a consequence we saw mass surrender, there is no indication of that happening in ukraine or is there?

I would hold off on any judgment untill we see more or clearer evidence of what is actualy happening.

No food is a morale killer, period. Add in conscripts who may have not even received prior notification they were going into combat then I would be surprised if morale wasn’t serious impacted. If no progress is made very soon, evidence will be forthcoming IMHO.

 

[Twain]

If these foraging missions are wide spread then Russian logistics are in sad shape.

don't know but videos like this are not at all hard to find on twitter

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

Possible Outcomes of the Russo-Ukrainian War and China’s Choice - U.S.-China Perception Monitor

Hu Wei is the vice-chairman of the Public Policy Research Center of the Counselor's Office of the State Council.

uscnpm.org

Hu Wei is the vice-chairman of the Public Policy Research Center of the Counselor’s Office of the State Council, the chairman of Shanghai Public Policy Research Association, the chairman of the Academic Committee of the Chahar Institute, a professor, and a doctoral supervisor.

In short, Hu states that China should give up on Putin and join "mainstream" global opinion on the invasion of Ukraine. A very self-serving article on the basis he thinks Putin is likely to lose one way or another over Ukraine and that there is a danger of China being caught on the wrong side of a new, global iron curtain. Still, I'm not surprised there are Chinese academics worried Xi's position is going to work against the PRC's interests.

Apparently the original article is already being scrubbed from the Chinese internet.

 

[Twain]

Possible Outcomes of the Russo-Ukrainian War and China’s Choice - U.S.-China Perception Monitor

Hu Wei is the vice-chairman of the Public Policy Research Center of the Counselor's Office of the State Council.

uscnpm.org

Hu Wei is the vice-chairman of the Public Policy Research Center of the Counselor’s Office of the State Council, the chairman of Shanghai Public Policy Research Association, the chairman of the Academic Committee of the Chahar Institute, a professor, and a doctoral supervisor.

In short, Hu states that China should give up on Putin and join "mainstream" global opinion on the invasion of Ukraine. A very self-serving article on the basis he thinks Putin is likely to lose one way or another over Ukraine and that there is a danger of China being caught on the wrong side of a new, global iron curtain. Still, I'm not surprised there are Chinese academics worried Xi's position is going to work against the PRC's interests.

Apparently the original article is already being scrubbed from the Chinese internet.

Russian army vehicles with red cross flags are appearing now

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502396800740773890

 

[GermanHerman]

No food is a morale killer, period. Add in conscripts who may have not even received prior notification they were going into combat then I would be surprised if morale wasn’t serious impacted. If no progress is made very soon, evidence will be forthcoming IMHO.

That's a fair argument but untill we get this evidence its only guess work.

We also have videos of russian troops handing out considerable amounts of humanitarian aid so the narative that the russian soldiers are starving because of the bad logistics and a lack of food is not completly solid.

As to the expired food I wouldnt hang it too high, it might not be a good look but at the same time also dosnt mean it's actualy bad/rotten. Those meals are made to last for a long time. Still: bad optics.

 

[Feanor]

Update.

Around Kiev.

A car carrying two US journalists at Irpen' got shot up, one killed one wounded. Western sources are quoting the Kiev chief of police saying that it was Russian forces. Russian sources say he was headed towards Romanovka out of Irpen', an area under Ukrainian control.

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Colonelcassad

Относительно гибели американского журналиста. Персонаж на видео говорит, что его убили при обстреле в районе Романовки, которая находится за Ирпенью, которую контролируют ВСУ. Журналист получил пулю в голову, которая вошла ему прямо в глаз. Учитывая район гибели, я бы больше поверил в версию...

t.me

Dambiev

Эвакуация тела американского документалиста Брента Рено, погибшего в результате "дружественного огня" со стороны украинских националистов из территориальной обороны под Киевом.

t.me

Colonelcassad

В Ирпени погиб американский журналист Брент Рено, у которого при себе было удостоверение издания The New York Times. Украинские ресурсы уже поспешили обвинить в его смерти российские войска, но при детальном рассмотрении всплывает несколько характерных деталей: Один из выживших в инциденте...

t.me

Russia continues deliveries of humanitarian aid around Kiev.

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vk.com

Zelenskiy released a video where he is visiting a hospital with wounded. Apparently the video is old, as one of the people in it, a female service member, was KIA before the release of the video. Speculation continues whether he is in fact in Kiev.

Война с фейками

Опровергаем фейки с 2022 года. Предложить фейк: @military_fakes_bot Сотрудничество: @ads_warfakes_bot

t.me

Kharkov-Sumy.

A strike, allegedly Iskander, against a Ukrainian command post in Kharkov area.

БелВПО

Предположительно, удар "Искандером" по командному пункту ВСУ в Харьковскаой области. Бахнуло очень точно и мощно

t.me

A strike at Dergach, north of Kharkov. Unclear if the same as above. The buildings don't look right to me.

Юрий Ткачёв

Удар по Дергачам к северу от Харькова

t.me

Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa.

Battle damage in Nikolaev region.

ZERGULIO

Николаевская область.

t.me

Nikolaev region, Zeleniy Gay, a school allegedly being used as a Ukrainian strongpoint got hit by a Russian strike.

Open Ukraine| Открытая Украина

Николаевская область, Зелёный Гай, удар опорному пункту в школе 200 - 4 300 - 3 @OpenUkraine

t.me

Zorya-Mashinostroenie factory that makes ship engines got hit.

Юрий Ткачёв

Попадание в корпус завода "Заря-Машпроект" в Николаеве

t.me

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vk.com

Russian troops in Skadovsk. The town was originally taken without a shot. At some point Russian troops left the town, moving on, leading to the local mayor to announce the town freed from Russian occupation... somehow. Russian troops are in the town again.

Colonelcassad

Российские военные в Скадовске, который вчера в интернете "героически отбили у России".

t.me

Civilians lining up to go to the store in Nikolaev.

БелВПО

Голодная очередь в Николаеве. А товарищ Ким говорит, что все хорошо и под контролем

t.me

Russian troops column with angry locals in Kherson. Apparently one of them got shot with a rubber bullet. Presumably that means these are National Guard.

Военный Осведомитель

Один из украинских провокаторов получил резиновой пулей в ногу.

t.me

The former mayor of Kherson led an "anti-fascist" protest in Kherson with Soviet flags. I'm genuinely confused if this is somehow pro-Russian, or if this is a way to have an anti-Russian protest without getting shut down. Though several anti-Russian protests have taken place in Kherson without news of them getting dispersed or arrested.

Open Ukraine| Открытая Украина

Херсон, антифашистский митинг, который возглавил экс-мэр Херсона Сальдо @OpenUkraine

t.me

Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk.

A destroyed bridge at Kamenskoe.

Colonelcassad

Подорванный ВСУ мост в районе Каменского. Запорожская область.

t.me

Mariupol'.

Fighting continues in Mariupol'.

Повёрнутые на войне

Очень жарко в Мариуполе

t.me

Interesting details out of Volnovakha. Rebel forces have taken NLAWs and munitions as trophies inside a hospital in Volnovakha. A rare BMP-1 variant with a new turret was destroyed in Volnovakha. Also some assorted footage out of the town.

РИА Новости

Войска ДНР в больнице освобожденной Волновахи обнаружили британские ПТРК NLAW, которые предназначены для поражения различных видов бронетехники, в том числе танков. Также там найдены укупорочные ящики и "цинки" под 30-миллиметровые гранаты ВОГ-17М для автоматических гранатометов серии АГС. На...

t.me

ANNA NEWS

В Волновахе уничтожена редкая украинская БМП В ходе боев за Волноваху была уничтожена достаточно редкая украинская боевая машина пехоты. Речь идет о БМП-1ТС - модификации БМП-1 с усиленным бронированием, боевым модулем "Спис" и радиостанцией Motorola DM-4601. Машина принадлежала батальону...

t.me

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Военный Осведомитель

Разбитая техника ВСУ в освобождённой Волновахе.

t.me

Уголок Ситха

Волноваха. 12/03/2022

t.me

GREY ZONE

Бойцы ОРБ «Спарта» ВС ДНР в освобождённой Волновахе

t.me

LDNR Front.

Battle damage at Karachun.

Военкор Андрей Камыжикин

Славянск, гора Карачун Последствия работы ВКС России по позициям ВСУ на горе Карачун в Славянске. Напомним, именно туда украми было стянуто большое личного состава и техники, в том числе десятки установок залпового огня БМ-21 "Град". @anna_news @akimapachev @diza_donbass

t.me

Reports that the former commander of Ukraine's 24th Mech Bde, colonel Valeriy Gudz' was killed in Lugansk region. He apparently returned to his unit and took part in the fighting.

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Russian Su-25s over Kramatorsk.

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Russian helos in Lugansk region.

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Ukrainian forces retreating from Izyum got hit by an MLRS strike, unclear what type.

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Старше Эдды

Город Изюм, южная окраина, перекрёсток недалеко от поста ГАИ. Бойцы ВСУ бегут в сторону перекрёстка, в надежде укрыться на на посту ГАИ. Бежали в полной выкладке почти полтора километра, но уже в нескольких метрах от укрытия, попали под удар Смерчем.

t.me

Russian forces in Izyum.

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vk.com

A civilian column of vehicles leaving Izyum was apparently fired on by Ukrainian forces, killing at least one.

Mash

Видео из Изюма в Харьковской области, где накануне шли бои. Жительница в составе мирной колонны пыталась выехать из города, когда часть его еще была занята теробороной. Украинцы открыли огонь по машинам. Женщине удалось спастись, а её муж погиб у неё на глазах.

t.me

Russia or rebel technicals in Novotroitskoe. Based on location I'd normally assume these are DNR forces, but the white armbands and the technicals make me wonder if it's a Russian element working with the rebels.

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Военкор Астрахань

На пикапах в Новотроицкое, под музыку из фильма "Морпехи"...

t.me

Javelin's in rebel hands.

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vk.com

A Ukrainian T-64 abandoned near Severodonetsk.

Colonelcassad

Брошенный исправный Т-64 ВСУ под Северодонецком. Скорее всего проблемы с ГСМ.

t.me

Ukrainian territorial defense fighters taken POW in Izyum.

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vk.com

The West.

The strike against Yavorov training ground was apparently quite severe. A number of foreign volunteers were killed and wounded in the strike, with an alleged total of 35 killed and 134 wounded. That number may increase.

Армянская вендетта

Первые кадры с Яворовского полигона, уничтоженного утром

t.me

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Неприятное пробуждение на Яворовском полигоне

В результате прилета Калибров по объетам на Яворовском полигоне (где США и их сателлиты натаскивали украинских военных на войну с Россией) по официальным украинским заявлениям (которые конечно не особо заслуживают доверия), было убито 9 и ранено 57 военных, среди которых были и…

colonelcassad.livejournal.com

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Colonelcassad

Неприятное пробуждение на Яворовском полигоне. К

t.me

Misc.

Russian Forpost-R UAV apparently strikes Ukrainian Grad. The Forpost-R is a domesticated variant of the Israeli Searcher MkII, with ground-attack capabilities. The footage isn't great, personally I can't make out what's happening.

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Ukrainian BMP destroyed in a precision strike. Footage like this has started to come out in greater quantities. I suspect this is also from around Kiev, like the rest.

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Russian helos operating over Ukraine.

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Военный обозреватель

Полевой аэродром ВКС России в зоне проведения специальной операции на Украине. #Украина @new_militarycolumnist

t.me

More Chechen National Guard heading to Ukraine.

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vk.com

Apparently two vehicles of Ukraine's 73rd Naval SpN Center were hit in an ambush and the team leader was taken POW.

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vk.com

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️Русский спецназ уничтожил группу ССО, взят в плен командир спецназа 73 центра спецопераций Матерый разведчи, прошедший службу от рядового бойца до командира группы морского спецназа. Киевский режим использует высококвалифицированных специалистов для задач, предназначенных для обычной пехоты...

t.me

Pole-taping of alleged looters continues.

Open Ukraine| Открытая Украина

Украина. Вижу один плюс от всей этой волны БДСМ, людей хотя бы не расстреливают @OpenUkraine

t.me

Ramzan Kadyrov has allegedly personally arrived in Ukraine.

⚔️ СВАРЩИКИ

Рамзан Кадыров лично прибыл в зону проведения специальной военной операции на Украине для поддержки российских бойцов.

t.me

A car with civilians was allegedly shot up by Ukrainian forces while trying to leave towards Russian territory. Warning footage of corpses.

Бросок мангуста

В очередном освобожденном населенном пункте по пути следования обнаружен автомобиль с убитым гражданским, весь изрешеченный в спину и голову. Человек пытался прорваться в сторону РФ, но его расстреляли в спину. Русские солдаты вытянули тело и транспорт из кювета, и передали медицинской службе...

t.me

Ukrainian POW claims that army commanders chained up soldiers to a position when they don't want to fight.

СТОЛКНОВЕНИЕ

Эффектное видео лесных пожаров в районе озера Бернс, Британская Колумбия, Канада

t.me

 

[Feanor]

Russian army vehicles with red cross flags are appearing now

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502396800740773890

Army vehicles are allowed to carry the red cross if they are medical vehicles. So if those are battlefield ambulances for example, they are welcome to use the symbol. In the example provided it appears to be a column distributing humanitarian aid and evacuating civilians. I'm not sure whether this particular usage of it is completely correct, but to be honest I find it hard to get outraged about...

 

[danonz]

I think a lot of people are seeing everything from the western media point of view, if that's all you looked at sure it looks bad for Russia. But they will never show how well Russia is going they want to make Russia look incapable and that Ukraine can defend itself. If you balance it out with with pro Russians sources you will get a better picture of what is happening the truth is usually some where in the middle.

 

[Todjaeger]

Army vehicles are allowed to carry the red cross if they are medical vehicles. So if those are battlefield ambulances for example, they are welcome to use the symbol. In the example provided it appears to be a column distributing humanitarian aid and evacuating civilians. I'm not sure whether this particular usage of it is completely correct, but to be honest I find it hard to get outraged about...

There is an additional requirement that vehicles cannot be armed. An ambulance, even a battlefield one, that is armed with a machine gun, would be ineligible to use the Red Cross which is a sign of a non-combatant and is to ID a vehicle or personnel as a non-combatant and therefore something or someone who cannot be legally targeted.

This has led to issues in other conflicts elsewhere, where vehicles had been marked with the Red Cross or Red Crescent and were lawfully engaged because the vehicles were engaged in actions which were unlawful. Specifically it was an ambulance in the Mideast which was targeted when a group of armed fighters were found to be using an ambulance as a personnel transport vehicle.

 

[Twain]

Army vehicles are allowed to carry the red cross if they are medical vehicles. So if those are battlefield ambulances for example, they are welcome to use the symbol. In the example provided it appears to be a column distributing humanitarian aid and evacuating civilians. I'm not sure whether this particular usage of it is completely correct, but to be honest I find it hard to get outraged about...

I doubt they are medical ambulances, you can't have weapons mounted on anything with a red cross emblem

"They carry no weapons. Their only shield is the red cross emblem.

The emblem is a symbol of protection that international law gives to the wounded and sick, and those caring for them, in armed conflict. They convey to those fighting that they must not attack anyone or anything that displays these emblems."

Red Cross Emblem Symbolizes Neutrality, Impartiality

The red cross emblem is one of the most recognized symbols in the world for a very important reason.

www.redcross.org

.

 

[Feanor]

There is an additional requirement that vehicles cannot be armed. An ambulance, even a battlefield one, that is armed with a machine gun, would be ineligible to use the Red Cross which is a sign of a non-combatant and is to ID a vehicle or personnel as a non-combatant and therefore something or someone who cannot be legally targeted.

This has led to issues in other conflicts elsewhere, where vehicles had been marked with the Red Cross or Red Crescent and were lawfully engaged because the vehicles were engaged in actions which were unlawful. Specifically it was an ambulance in the Mideast which was targeted when a group of armed fighters were found to be using an ambulance as a personnel transport vehicle.

Thank you for clarifying. Just for my own knowledge, is that the only issue here? Had they removed the machineguns from the vehicles that would have been fine? Or do the personnel also have to disarm? Also if you have a column where say two vehicles are not armed and the personnel inside aren't either, they're marked with the Red Cross, while two others are armed and are not marked with the Red Cross, would that be allowed? And then the RoEs would have to be to only target the armed vehicles?

 

[jref]

Interesting details out of Volnovakha. Rebel forces have taken NLAWs and munitions as trophies inside a hospital in Volnovakha. A rare BMP-1 variant with a new turret was destroyed in Volnovakha. Also some assorted footage out of the town.

Thanks for the update.

There seems to be a lot of trophies on both sides but from technical aspect, does capturing NLAWs, Javelins etc. has any long term benefits for Russians as in reverse engineering benefits? Do they have/need anything similar to these?

 

[Feanor]

Thanks for the update.

There seems to be a lot of trophies on both sides but from technical aspect, does capturing NLAWs, Javelins etc. has any long term benefits for Russians as in reverse engineering benefits? Do they have/need anything similar to these?

There definitely are benefits from familiarizing themselves with the technology. Russia has fire-and-forget munitions but nothing as light or well designed. One thing to be mindful of, NLAWs are single-shot disposables. So when you see captured NLAWs it's not always obvious if this is a munition or a spent container.

 

[T.C.P]

. One thing to be mindful of, NLAWs are single-shot disposables.

Stuff like this always blows my mind. I know America is the single richest military power in the world, but stuff like having a single shot disposable high tech, super expensive anti tank weapon in that numbers is a bigger sign of their unlimited budget than any super carriers.

Back to the topic, Is Russia saving all their guided muntions for an attack on Kyev after they have seured the South and the East? All the talk of a timeline is from western sources. It took the entire NATO(well not entire) much longer to take Iraq, and the Iraqis were more disorganized and demoralized than the Ukranians.

Also why is Russia not making Odessa a target? In all Russian military excercises they always show off their giant hover crafts and other landing platforms and they seem (to an ameteur like me) like they have the expertise for a naval ground assault.

 

[GermanHerman]

Stuff like this always blows my mind. I know America is the single richest military power in the world, but stuff like having a single shot disposable high tech, super expensive anti tank weapon in that numbers is a bigger sign of their unlimited budget than any super carriers.

Back to the topic, Is Russia saving all their guided muntions for an attack on Kyev after they have seured the South and the East? All the talk of a timeline is from western sources. It took the entire NATO(well not entire) much longer to take Iraq, and the Iraqis were more disorganized and demoralized than the Ukranians.

Also why is Russia not making Odessa a target? In all Russian military excercises they always show off their giant hover crafts and other landing platforms and they seem (to an ameteur like me) like they have the expertise for a naval ground assault.

What benefit would they gain from an assault on Odessa?

- logistics wont benefit but would get even more stretched

- the ukrainian forces defending Odessa cant leave the city because of the threat of a naval Invasion so they are not a factor in the fighting elsewhere. So there is no upside in actualy engaging them, yet there is considerable downside as it would be very costly.

The only real value lies in the Propaganda. But that's not worth it and quite frankly I so think russia lacks the man power for an sustained assault.

Mariopol and Kharkiv give a good picture what to expect from a Battle for Odessa. It wouldnt be a quick and easy grab but yet another headache for the russians.