The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

hellfire

Member
We have seen youtube and countries blocking RT. Western media will only tells western propaganda.
Here is more neutral one.
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
Now that we're hearing about local ceasefires and more about a general ceasefire, I'd like to at least propose an idea the west can implement to force Russia to either tone down, or outright deter it from later resuming an invasion.

If there is no ban on international aid of any form, western countries can simply establish non-military presence in large numbers, e.g construction projects, semi-permanent aid facilities, basically create many civilian tripwire targets that Russia wouldn't dare attack. We see the same happening in many countries, just not for this reason.
Of course also some minimal military logistical presence to evacuate civilians if Russia decides to target them anyway. The latter is not seen typically as a controversial demand.

This, as opposed to military tripwire forces that would obviously be banned.

I am aware this can be done technically without a ceasefire but this would be a cynical abuse of humanitarian missions and may prevent them further on.

Just exercising a thought. What do you guys think?
 

wittmanace

Active Member
Now that we're hearing about local ceasefires and more about a general ceasefire, I'd like to at least propose an idea the west can implement to force Russia to either tone down, or outright deter it from later resuming an invasion.

If there is no ban on international aid of any form, western countries can simply establish non-military presence in large numbers, e.g construction projects, semi-permanent aid facilities, basically create many civilian tripwire targets that Russia wouldn't dare attack. We see the same happening in many countries, just not for this reason.
Of course also some minimal military logistical presence to evacuate civilians if Russia decides to target them anyway. The latter is not seen typically as a controversial demand.

This, as opposed to military tripwire forces that would obviously be banned.

I am aware this can be done technically without a ceasefire but this would be a cynical abuse of humanitarian missions and may prevent them further on.

Just exercising a thought. What do you guys think?
Apart from it being a very cynical thing to do, I think its more to the point that tripwires would not be favoured by political leadership because it could compel them into action. The removal of options is not something I think theyd seek individually or collectively. The fact is that if they were keen to enter the frsy militarily or directly, they could. They dont need any further pretext. What you propose would simply serve to remove options and wriggle room, as well as raising questions as to the extent to which they intentionally put their own civilians at risk...and the peaceful status of their country at risk.

Why would you seek to diminish your own options, or get into a situation where someone else could so that and the dominoes would fall to remove your own options?
 

CJR

Active Member
I dont know how correctly/accurate this post is, but if true, then its not such a smart upload.
It shows that narcism can be deathly, specially in wartime.
A five second look at his twitter shows a lot of blatant Russian propaganda and intermittent anti-vax nonsense (presumably more common on there pre-war...). Now, this particular incident actually does sound plausible, but still take what he's saying with a truck load of salt...
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

Another map.


Kiev.

Faint explosions can be heard in a part of Kiev.


Kiev air defenses firing.


Ukraine has deployed 2S7 Pions to Kiev, 203mm super-heavy artillery.


Troops from western Ukraine are showing up in Kiev.


One of Ukraine's negotiators was killed in Kiev by SBU personnel, while being detained. Circumstances are unclear, but he was also declared a hero who died defending Ukraine by Ukraine's MinDef. The sheer two-faced cynicism of declaring someone killed by your own security forces as a hero who died defending Ukraine is staggering. Who did he die defending Ukraine from? Their own SBU?


Around Kiev.

Battle damage in Irpen'.


Battle damage in Gostomel'.


A fuel storage facility at Vasil'kov got hit.


Russian Ka-52, flying low, near Kiev.


Russian troops moving towards Kiev, date unknown.


MANAPDS and NLAW captured near Kiev.


Footage of Russian troops around Kiev, date unknown.


Russian troops moving through Irpen'.


Initially it was claimed thatUkrainian soldiers in Bucha set up in a residential building, allegedly artillery FOs. It was later confirmed that this is the next town over, Vorzel', and the building is a hotel.


A crowd of civilians under a destroyed bridge in Irpen', allegedly being prevented from exiting by Ukrainian government forces.


Civilians exiting Irpen' across a destroyed bridge. It's not clear how this meshes with the report above. It's possible that initially people were allowed to leave, and then stopped. It's also possible people were initially stopped and then allowed to leave. It's also possible civilians were temporarily stopped, while debris could be cleared, to people could exit safely.


Civilians allegedly fleeing Irpen', through the forest. It's likely the exodus is related to the fighting in Irpen'.


The North.

A downed Russian Su-34 jet near Chernigov.


Ukrainian Tochka missile either shot down or fell in Chernigov area.


Kharkov-Sumy.

Something was shot down over Kharkov, either a plane or a missile. It looks to me like, especially based on the third video, two objects were shot down.


An explosion in Balakleya.


Battle damage in Kharkov.


Novosaltovskaya market, Irpen'.


The Old Saltov bridge towards Russia was blown up allegedly by Ukrainian forces.


National Guard academy in Kharkov got hit.


A Ukrainian National Guard base in Zhukovskiy village, Kharkov area, got hit by a missile strike.


A local college dormitory got hit in Kharkov.


Apparently a Ukrainian missile strike either hit or got intercepted at Belgorod. The source claims it got intercepted, I'm not sure sure based on the footage. The area is now blocked off by Russian police and National Guard. It doesn't appear to have hit a military target.


A Turkish radio and a NLAW container found near Balakleya, Kharkov region.


A captured BTR-4 and NLAW in Kharkov region, another BTR-4 destroyed.


Ukrainian soldier with a MANPADS patrolling the streets in Kharkov.


Footage of Russian troops interacting with locals in Kupyansk. A reminder, Kupyansk so far is the only town where the local municipal authorities immediately and openly cooperated with Russian troops.


There are reports of Russian troops near Akhtyrka stopping civilian cars and slashing the tires. Context is unclear.


Kharkov train station, civilians attempting to leave.


Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk.

Russian National Guard in Energodar.


Civilians lining up for Russian aid in Melitopol'.


More photos of aid being distributed in Melitopol' but what makes this interesting is the top photo where you can see a person in black, non-uniformed, wearing a white arm-band and a Russian flag patch on his sleeve, holding a AK rifle. Is this some sort of newly formed Melitopol' People's Militia?


Russian troops handing out aid in Berdyansk.


Weapons are being handed out to civilians in Zaporozhye.


An alleged SBU infiltrator team was captured near Melitopol' by Russian forces. They were allegedly supposed to carry out terrorist attacks against local population, and try to pass it off as Russian forces.


Dnepropetrovsk train station.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa.

Ukraine claims 4 downed Russian helos in Nikolaev area. Russian sources deny this, the photo of the wreckage provided says VVS instead of the VKS that modern Russian aircraft carry. 4 helos is a lot so if true we should see a large debris field, and more evidence. In principle it's possible some helos carried an old paintjob, but the paintjob in the photo doesn't look old, just out of date. Let's see if more info emerges on location and aircraft. If anything, the serial number corresponds to an Mi-35M


There are reports of MLRS firing from Chernobaevka airfield, Kherson, towards Nikolaev.


Battle damage in Nikolaev.


"The People's Militia" of Kherson has allegedly detained an individual who planned on carrying out a terrorist attack during a protest, and the individual is tied to the territorial defense formations. The alleged goal was to blame Russia for the explosion and cause clashes between locals and Russian troops.

There's a lot to unpack here. First off "People's Militia" is the official names for the rebel formations in the LDNR. During Russia's move into Crimea, a local defense force was immediately stood up, though it never served a purpose and was disbanded shortly after. However it would make sense that Russia is forming police/paramilitary formations out of locals amenable to this, especially in south-eastern areas where there are significant numbers of people who sympathize with Russia. Second off I have a hard time believing that they are ones responsible for catching this would be bomber, assuming this is real. I suspect Russian military counter-intelligence or even intelligence agencies like the FSB did the real catching, and the newly formed People's Militia got put front and center for media reasons, as well as relations with locals. Third off, this comes mere days after Kherson has fallen, strongly suggesting that some of this was done in advance, and some individuals may have been shoulder-tapped before Russia even moved to be ready.


Russian TV has begun broadcasting in Kherson.


A protest took place in Kherson, people chanting Glory to Ukraine. It wasn't very large, but it could be a sign of things to come.


A significantly larger protest took place in Novaya Kahovka, of locals chanting "home" and "Ukraine". Attempts were made to disperse by firing into the air, but to no effect as far as I can tell. There are reports of one civilian getting shot in the leg, circumstances are unclear.


Footage from the streets of Kherson. You can see the protest in the background. It looks relatively small. Some public transport, namely trolleybuses, have apparently resumed working.


We have unconfirmed reports of the destruction of Slavyansk, a Ukrainian patrol boat donated by the US. No circumstances are known at this time.


Russian troops have entered an abandoned Ukrainian army camp near Kherson and are hauling away significant quantities of captured vehicles. There's a bunch of trucks, some engineer vehicles, a MT-LB command variant, APCs, tanks etc. The camp is near Radensk near Novaya Kahovka.


Car accident in Nikolaev area, a Ukrainian transport trailer carrying a BMP-2 collided with a mini-van carrying children. Some children were allegedly hospitalized.


Mariupol'.

Destroyed Ukrainian vehicles and KIAs in Kalchinovka, north-west of Mariupol'. I added the google maps link because this village was hard to find. First off google maps tries to search for Kalinovka instead, and second off even when you force correct, it takes you to a Kalchinovka in Kharkov area instead of Mariupol' area. I had to zoom in and move along the Donetsk-Zaporozhye region border until I found this, and it's an extremely small village. The significance of the location is that it's north-west of Mariupol', so if fighting has shifted there, the town is truly and well surrounded. It's also the border of Donetsk region.


Two destroyed trucks and KIAs from Ukraine's 36th Marine Bde near Mariupol'. Warning footage of corpses.


Rebel forces in Sopino, a village on the coast east of Mariupol'. You can see a destroyed MT-LB, several ATGMs, a small pile of abandoned grenades, some modified RPG rounds, and what appear to be materials for manufacturing either modified ordinance or IEDs.


Berdyanskoe village, right next to Sopino.


Rebel forces in Rybinskoe, just east of Volnovakha.


Allegedly a captured phone of an Azov fighter. One of the photos shows a sign calling Zelenskiy a "zhid" (racist term for jew). The other shows a messenger conversation that essentially describes their desperate position. It states the marines working with them took a lot of losses, and there are apparently 20 left (out of a btln). This doesn't necessarily mean the rest are dead, they could have gotten separated, or broken away. Another part of the conversation details that they're getting hit with arty and air, and can't hit back, because their arty gets destroyed anytime it opens up.


Rebels have partially captured and partially destroyed a BM-27 column heading to Mariupol' and marked it with white Zs as they'll be using the vehicles. However you can see the characteristic Ukrainian camouflage underneath. Warning footage of corpses.


Destroyed Ukrainian artillery positions in Donskoe village, near Volnovakha.


Ukrainian BMP-2 south of Volnovakha, at Anatol'skoe village.


Rebel forces heading to Mariupol'.


A civilian in Berdyanskoe village claims he saw Right Sector and Azov in his village, not Ukrainian army, and that fighters routinely wore Nazi symbols. It's important to note that this is a very small village, so it's plausible that this location specifically was held by Right Sector/Azov rather then regular Ukrainian army.


There were allegedly people lining up to leave Mariupol' but were unable to. Later reports say that some civilians were able to exit.


An interview with allegedly a local resident from Volnovakha, who reports that Ukrainian forces were shooting at civilian cars that were trying to leave the town.


An interview with a person out of Mariupol'. He claims first 5 armed men showed up claiming to be DNR fighters here to kill them. They robbed them and smashed their car. He believes they were Ukrainian fighters. After that more fighters showed up who also identified themselves as rebels, and who fed them and provided water. He also claims there were 3 Ukrainain btlns, Dnepr, Azov, and another, that did not take orders from anyone.


Rebel forces apparently delivering insulin to a local in Bugas village.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
LDNR Front.

A missile strike has hit Kramatorsk.


Smashed Ukrainian positions near Severodonetsk. I can see a destroyed truck, 2 tanks (can't make out the types, though the second look sort of like a T-64BV), and the paintjobs on the tank barrels do look Ukrainian. In the last video there is another tank in the distance, but it's unclear whether it's destroyed or not, and whom it belong to.


Rebel forces in Treh'izbenka, LNR area.


Overrun Ukrainian positions at Trehizbenka.


Allegedly Ukrainian BRM-1K abandoned, Donbas.


Rebel forces handing out aid at Trehizbenka.


Captured Javelin missile and 60mm mortar shell.


Rebels captured an improvised launcher system for home-made munitions, presumably used by Right Sector or some other formation that may not have ready access to government arsenals.


Rebels captured a BMP-1, and a Varta armored car. Again you can see the white Z over the Ukrainian camouflage. They are reportedly going to be using the captured vehicles almost immediately.


Train station in Slavyansk.


Russian aid arrives in Donetsk area.


The West.

Vinnitsa got hit by missile strikes, apparently a local airfield.


Zhitomyr tank factory got hit by strikes. The factory hasn't produced tanks in a long time, instead specializing in modifying and upgrading BMP hulls, including production of new turrets for them.


Ovrych, north of Zhitomyr, north-west of Kiev, a military base got hit by a missile strikes.


Starokonstantinovka airfield, Khmel'nitskiy, got hit by a missile strike.


A civilian in Rovno shot two suspicious individuals with a hunting shot gun from his balcony. The hunt for Russian infiltrators continues.


Train station in L'vov, a near-miss accident.


L'vov train station.


Funeral for Ukrainian KIAs in Rovno.


Tank traps on the streets of Odessa.


Misc.

Russian Ka-52 firing somewhere over Ukraine.

A column of expensive cars is being escorted in Ukraine by armed police who are chasing away locals. Allegedly they're evacuating children, though it doesn't appear too plausible.


Russian pontoon bridge vehicles uparmored with lumber. They should have gone with the Serdyukov-era idea of transitioning all military vehicles to armored cabins regardless of purpose.


Tor-M2 SAM moving as part of a Russian troop column, note the working radar. This gives credence to the threat of Bayraktar TB-2 strikes. This is also a system could plausible shoot one down, under the right circumstances. It's unclear whether it can fire on the move, some Tor variants claim this, some claim short-stop firing (i.e. come to a stop in ~2-3 secs before firing).


Abandoned Ukrainian army vehicles, location unknown.


Ukrainian BTR-80 abandoned, location unknown.


Russian soldier KIA from Sevastopol', location unknown.


Russian aid groups are once again sending supplies to rebel forces.


Allegedly Ukrainian Tor abandoned. Ukraine does have a small quantity of Tors in service, and this doesn't have the white tactical markings of Russian vehicles.


Allegedly Ukrainian forces using an M-240B, location unknown. A number of these were supplied as part of military aid right before the war.


Ukrainian soldier posing with a 240B and an NLAW, location unknown.


Russian FSB arrested an alleged Ukrainian nationalist in Rostov area who is suspected of having taken part in fighting in a Ukrainian volunteer formation.


Alleged pro-Russian rally in Transnetria.


Buryatiya, funeral of a Russian service member killed in Ukraine.


A Ukrainian police officer is beating a man taped to a light pole, while the onlookers cheer him on. Presumably this is a looter, circumstances unclear.


Another Russian KIA from the 810th Marine Bde.


POWs.

Allegedly captured Azov fighter.


Ukrainian POW wounded.


Ukrainian border guard soldier who claims he deserted to Russia because he feared for his life, and because he doesn't want to fight for the Nazi government of Ukraine.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
A couple of other points. It appears Russian military losses have been removed from lostarmour. It's unclear why or by whom. They state they will publish those submissions after the end of the conflict. This is regrettable.


Also an interesting resources, tineye, that does reverse image searches to help identify fakes. Obviously not fool proof since purpose-made fakes won't pop, but attempts to recycle old images will.


Finally, it appears that the reliability of Oryx Blog is also dropping. For example in one spot a T-64BV mod'17 that was captured by rebels and had a white Z added subsequently is listed under Russian losses. There are other examples. I don't think this has anything to do with the integrity of the author. Rather it's an inevitable consequence of the sheer volume of information he has to sift through. I'm hoping as the dust settles he will take the time to sift through again, and confirm with secondary sources to get a more dialed in picture.
 

danonz

Member
Drone footage of Russian platoon ambushing 2 Ukrainian BRDM-2's
they broke down what was happening quite well.

If you could get that footage along side helmet cam footage , would be about as good as most countries command rooms in terms of situation awareness.
 
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Twain

Active Member
Finally, it appears that the reliability of Oryx Blog is also dropping. For example in one spot a T-64BV mod'17 that was captured by rebels and had a white Z added subsequently is listed under Russian losses. There are other examples. I don't think this has anything to do with the integrity of the author. Rather it's an inevitable consequence of the sheer volume of information he has to sift through. I'm hoping as the dust settles he will take the time to sift through again, and confirm with secondary sources to get a more dialed in picture.

I'm a bit confused here and not sure what your point is here. As I understand your post a T-64BV was at some point was captured by the rebels (your post doesn't say when and it may not be known when this happened) and then it was damaged by the Ukrainian military. That is a loss by the rebels, it could also be a loss by the UA. If anything it seems to me it could possibly be counted as a loss by both sides at various points in time but it ought to be counted at least once. If it was captured since Feb 24th it ought to be a loss by Ukraine too IMO.

On a separate note he has made it clear he is not getting much info on Ukrainian losses since most of the video and pictures are coming from Ukrainian sources and they don't send in many tips about Ukrainian losses, so Ukrainian losses are definitely underrepresented but so are Russian losses (most likely to a lesser extent). How much higher both should be is anybody's guess.
 

catullus76

New Member
Do we have any eye-witness accounts of how well the newly recruited civilian fighters are fighting in Ukraine? From my very limited reading of military history, the newly-minted recruits with limited training don't do very well. This war might be different though if anyone has testified to their effectiveness on the ground.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
I'm a bit confused here and not sure what your point is here. As I understand your post a T-64BV was at some point was captured by the rebels (your post doesn't say when and it may not be known when this happened) and then it was damaged by the Ukrainian military. That is a loss by the rebels, it could also be a loss by the UA. If anything it seems to me it could possibly be counted as a loss by both sides at various points in time but it ought to be counted at least once. If it was captured since Feb 24th it ought to be a loss by Ukraine too IMO.

On a separate note he has made it clear he is not getting much info on Ukrainian losses since most of the video and pictures are coming from Ukrainian sources and they don't send in many tips about Ukrainian losses, so Ukrainian losses are definitely underrepresented but so are Russian losses (most likely to a lesser extent). How much higher both should be is anybody's guess.
No. The tank in question was captured by rebels in the same set of photos that he uses as proof of a destroyed "Russian" (presumably rebel) T-64BV. He assumed it was a rebel T-64 based on the white Z. The source I have indicates that the Z was applied after. This is confirmed by the lack of Luna IR projector (making it a mod'17), and the Ukrainian paintjob.

Do we have any eye-witness accounts of how well the newly recruited civilian fighters are fighting in Ukraine? From my very limited reading of military history, the newly-minted recruits with limited training don't do very well. This war might be different though if anyone has testified to their effectiveness on the ground.
Not really. I mean we have plenty of chaos and sporadic gunfire all over Kiev, at least some of which can and should be attributed to civilians being handed weapons. But I take it this isn't what you were looking for.

Drone footage of Russian platoon ambushing 2 Ukrainian BRDM-2's
they broke down what was happening quite well.

If you could get that footage along side helmet cam footage , would be about as good as most countries command rooms in terms of situation awareness.
Thank you for sharing, it's a great breakdown.
 
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Stuart M

Well-Known Member
I dont think so.

When Russia finaly enters into negotiations with the west it's in a better Position starting out with the declared aim to cease the whole country. It leaves them room to retreat to "just" turn ukraine into a client state in exchange for something from the west.

Besides that I think the losses of the RUAF yesterday shed light on the mysterious absence of the Air force during the first couple of days.
Given that he has launched an outright invasion, and already pinched a chunk of Ukraine a few years back, Ill take the guy at his word until proven otherwise.
 

Steinmetz

Active Member
If I may chime in my two cents on Oryx, there's an overload of information, which is actually bad in this case. There's a preponderance of fake information, mis-information, and biased information coming out, especially via twitter. There is no way to ascertain any sort of accurate numbers on anything, in my opinion. I don't think he's accounted for a lot of the Russian side of the equation, albeit a lot of what we see comes from DNR/LNR soldiers and reporters showing Ukrainian Corpses/Battle Damage. Still haven't seen much released from the Russian side, and I don't expect we will for a while. I've seen a few digitally faked Z's on his list and I'm not sure if he knows about select telegram channels that sort of show more of the other side. Not a knock on the man at all. I'm sure he'll take the time to re-sort it when/if this thing is all said and done. What is clear is that the Russians have clearly been misguided in their initial approach, such wasted trucks and equipment left unsupported by infantry, ect. However, I'm seeing less incompetence as the war rages on. I've certainly reversed the old KGB phrase "Trust but verify," and changed it into "Verify, then trust." That's my approach before I come to any conclusion on any piece of video, photo, or statement.

On another note, I'm getting rather concerned not only with more and more civilian casualties but also with the treatment of POWs. I'm seeing more and more very harsh videos come out, especially regarding POWs. War obviously brings out the worst in man and the Geneva convention seemingly goes right out the window. On a more strange note, seeing more and more videos of "traitors and looters" getting tied to poles and beat. I've even seen Ukrainian babushksas getting in the mix of the beatings. The temperature is cold and some of them seem to have been kept tied for a very long time. I share as an example that it's important not to resort to vigilante behavior. Even during extreme circumstances, justice will not prevail during the breakdown of law, sense and dignity.

Few examples, nsfw:

Сolonelcassad

Сolonelcassad

Сolonelcassad

Сolonelcassad

Сolonelcassad
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
If I may chime in my two cents on Oryx, there's an overload of information, which is actually bad in this case. There's a preponderance of fake information, mis-information, and biased information coming out, especially via twitter. There is no way to ascertain any sort of accurate numbers on anything, in my opinion. I don't think he's accounted for a lot of the Russian side of the equation, albeit a lot of what we see comes from DNR/LNR soldiers and reporters showing Ukrainian Corpses/Battle Damage. Still haven't seen much released from the Russian side, and I don't expect we will for a while. I've seen a few digitally faked Z's on his list and I'm not sure if he knows about select telegram channels that sort of show more of the other side. Not a knock on the man at all. I'm sure he'll take the time to re-sort it when/if this thing is all said and done. What is clear is that the Russians have clearly been misguided in their initial approach, such wasted trucks and equipment left unsupported by infantry, ect. However, I'm seeing less incompetence as the war rages on. I've certainly reversed the old KGB phrase "Trust but verify," and changed it into "Verify, then trust." That's my approach before I come to any conclusion on any piece of video, photo, or statement.

On another note, I'm getting rather concerned not only with more and more civilian casualties but also with the treatment of POWs. I'm seeing more and more very harsh videos come out, especially regarding POWs. War obviously brings out the worst in man and the Geneva convention seemingly goes right out the window. On a more strange note, seeing more and more videos of "traitors and looters" getting tied to poles and beat. I've even seen Ukrainian babushksas getting in the mix of the beatings. The temperature is cold and some of them seem to have been kept tied for a very long time. I share as an example that it's important not to resort to vigilante behavior. Even during extreme circumstances, justice will not prevail during the breakdown of law, sense and dignity.

Few examples, nsfw:

Сolonelcassad

Сolonelcassad

Сolonelcassad

Сolonelcassad

Сolonelcassad
Those aren't POWs though... they're looters, or alleged looters, in most cases. It still doesn't justify the behavior, especially by police. Not sure the Geneva convention applies though.
 

Steinmetz

Active Member
Those aren't POWs though... they're looters, or alleged looters, in most cases. It still doesn't justify the behavior, especially by police. Not sure the Geneva convention applies though.
Perhaps I should further clarify, didn't mean to indicate those were POWs tied up, just "Looters and Traitors".
 

danonz

Member
Perhaps I should further clarify, didn't mean to indicate those were POWs tied up, just "Looters and Traitors".
I bet there is a lot of witch hunting going on looking for so called Russian Collaborators with many innocent getting caught up in it. Handing out assault rifles out to civilians and turning them into paramilitary units can cause a lot more problems than they solve, they will look for something to do.
 
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