The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread
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Steinmetz
Active Member
Sounds more like morale PR to me, which has been one of Ukraine's most successful victories in the war. Stories like the "Ghost of Kiev", "Snake Island heroic deaths", have been extremely effective PR social media wise, getting the world behind them. So stories like that actually help Ukraine out, whether it's feasible or not. And that doesn't sound remotely feasible. That being said, It's been shocking that Russia has hardly released any videos of their own operations. They should reconsider. Only official one I've seen thus far is this:It looks like the birds of prey deal is back on the table.
Ukraine Crisis: Ukrainian Air Force To Receive 70 More Aircraft from EU & NATO Countries
According to reports, European Union & NATO countries will supply the Ukrainian Air Force with 70 aircraft to bolster its air defenses.aviationsourcenews.com
Any idea if Ukraine has any operational air fields left or are they down to long straight roads?
EDIT:
Drones and loitering munitions, if they could get them in, would be far more feasible. It would be a lot easier to hide drones and operate them. Considering the possible footage we seen of TB2 strikes thus far. Any arms that would be conducive to guerrilla and mobile warfare as well.
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Rock the kasbah
Active Member
Ukraine Through Russia’s Eyes
The Kremlin’s pre-invasion research suggested Ukraine was fertile ground for subversion, but the shock of war may transform Ukrainians’ willingness to resist in unpredictable ways.
rusi.org
Found it on defence one
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
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In principle it's ok, just please label appropriately so nobody clicks on them by accident. The main thing is that the videos should have some sort of information value. So bodies for the sake of bodies would not be welcome. Footage of a battlefield, with bodies on it, as an information piece on an engagement is fine.
Redlands18
Well-Known Member
Australia to fund ammunition, missile support for Ukraine's fight against Russia
Scott Morrison says Australia will send around $70 million to fund military equipment, including ammunition and missiles, and other support to Ukraine to help its fight against Russia.
www.abc.net.au
Ananda
The Bunker Group
This forum interested on finding information coming from all sides, and try to see real situation. There're enough forums that only want to talk information from one side only (especially whatever Ukraine administration and Western mainstream media put). So good luck on there, seems you are fitting well there.
That's be a good question for me too. My question also, is Ukraine AF still functioning ? If they still safe enough personal (pilots and mechanics), the offer can be send as effort to rebuild the Ukraine AF, rather then to participate on current engagement.
We still don't know the end game of this invasion will be. If Putin manage to bring Ukraine toward his demand, then Ukraine will be push to demilitarized and the offer from West will be moot anyway.
However if Ukraine manage to hold long enough, there's probability they have to let go some area in East and South to separatist (or perhaps North), while the rest will be rebuild by the West including their military. Ukraine then will be carved and will be in perpetual military readiness status just like Germany in cold war.
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Post 4 of 4: Sharing some inchoate thoughts on war in Ukraine
11. Even Singapore’s sanctioning Russia, a rare move for the city state to do so outside the UN Security Council Resolution context apart from 1978. As a Singaporean, it is not surprising that our government will show some spine to support Ukraine — unlike the rest of ASEAN, who are acting true to form. We must show empathy for what Ukrainians are going through now and in the days ahead. There is no doubt that Russia has committed an act of aggression within the meaning of Article 3 of UN General Assembly Resolution 3314. We may be small and inconsequential in great power games but we will stand for what is right, in this case.
12. The EU is very much in the lead on this one (with the US playing a key role in support of sanctions).
14. The indiscriminate Russian shelling of residential areas in Kharkiv has reportedly left dozens of civilians dead. Kyiv and Kharkiv, my prayers are with you.
15. The Ukrainian defenders are fighting in prepared positions in urban areas. They are well supplied with a mix of anti-tank weapons, anti-tank traps, guns, ammo and Molotov cocktails. This will force the Russian attackers to destroy the city they are attacking, through the liberal use of artillery and free fall bombs, they are trying to capture. This is the horror of war.
11. Even Singapore’s sanctioning Russia, a rare move for the city state to do so outside the UN Security Council Resolution context apart from 1978. As a Singaporean, it is not surprising that our government will show some spine to support Ukraine — unlike the rest of ASEAN, who are acting true to form. We must show empathy for what Ukrainians are going through now and in the days ahead. There is no doubt that Russia has committed an act of aggression within the meaning of Article 3 of UN General Assembly Resolution 3314. We may be small and inconsequential in great power games but we will stand for what is right, in this case.
12. The EU is very much in the lead on this one (with the US playing a key role in support of sanctions).
(a) I see Russia being subject to economy destroying sanctions, with a huge decline in the value of the rubble. The ruble was trading as low as 119 per dollar as offshore down, from nearly 84 per dollar.
(b) Arms and targeting intelligence is being provided to Ukraine. Germany rearming and committing to spend at least 2% of GDP on defense, a NATO target. The Bundeswehr is set to receive an extra €100 billion already this year. Luxembourg will send 100 NLAW anti-tank weapons, jeeps and 15 military tents to Ukraine, Defence Minister Francois Bausch said.
(c) Swiss neutrality waived; Europe won't transfer fighter planes to Ukraine, as both Poland and Slovakia decided not to. The conflict is at the stage when avoiding escalation to a Russia-NATO conflict is going to take luck or effort. Existing guardrails are eroding by the hour.
(d) The ability to keep supply lines running to Ukraine remains alive, but Russia will try to encircle and cut off Kyiv and Kharkiv.
13. Russia is sending a 17-mile long military convoy towards Kyiv. Therefore, I am getting really worried about the humanitarian impact of the various big urban battles to come. Outbreaks of dysentery and cholera in Kyiv and Kharkiv, can easily occur at day 45 to day 90, if clean water and sewage is cut-off. Beyond the risk of bombs, more civilians become affected by loss of sanitation services than most other factors in war time. Stockpiles of clean water is more important that food — as an adult can do without food for weeks but can’t do without clean water for days.
14. The indiscriminate Russian shelling of residential areas in Kharkiv has reportedly left dozens of civilians dead. Kyiv and Kharkiv, my prayers are with you.
15. The Ukrainian defenders are fighting in prepared positions in urban areas. They are well supplied with a mix of anti-tank weapons, anti-tank traps, guns, ammo and Molotov cocktails. This will force the Russian attackers to destroy the city they are attacking, through the liberal use of artillery and free fall bombs, they are trying to capture. This is the horror of war.
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All the planes in the world won't be any use if Russia could knock out all available airfield. I doubt there is any place in all of Ukraine out of the reach of Russian missiles. This is why I'm not so sure how much help will the additional aircraft will provide.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
Somehow I have doubt that this will strech for that long siege. Putin already shown his impatientness and US inteligence already worried about that. They already open 'humanitarian' corridor for Ukraine Civilians and Foreigners left Kyiv. After that big probability they are going to level the City and reducing the risk of Urban warfare as much as possible.
Putin want Zelensky administration to cave in ASAP. They are not using the full might of their arsenal that available in this operation. Kyiv I'm afraid will be another Grozny soon.
Russia based from what I talk with my financial market colleagues don't have resources to conduct long protected war, especially with Western sanctions. Some in the market affraid the sanction will only cornered Putin to leash all their Military might available in Ukraine rather then doing long siege as previously thought.
Todjaeger
Potstirrer
An 'interesting' story popped up in one of my feeds. Apparently the Russian state-run news outlet Ria Novosti accidentally published a story on Feb. 26th claiming that Russia had defeated Ukraine. Given the translated text of the article archived here on the Wayback machine, the article does sound as though it is Russia's intention to annex the Ukraine.
The following is a quoted line which has been translated by Google.
If that is an accurate translation, then things do not bode well for future relations between Russia and essentially everyone else.
Steinmetz
Active Member
More Russian advances along the Southern Front. Kherson has been captured, apparently there was a big operation last night, city was encircled. They seem to be moving at will, unopposed. Every-time dawn breaks, seems to show some advance. Looks like they are in fact conducting nighttime operations on key objectives.
Puzzling abandoned T-90A tank, not damaged, full of fuel. Seeing more and more cases of possible Russians ditching their tanks?? Very Odd. T-72B as well.
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1498531702905450503
Peaceful, but very vocal Ukrainians letting Russians know what they think. Berdyansk.
https://twitter.com/TIME/status/1498524264198193153
Puzzling abandoned T-90A tank, not damaged, full of fuel. Seeing more and more cases of possible Russians ditching their tanks?? Very Odd. T-72B as well.
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1498531702905450503
Peaceful, but very vocal Ukrainians letting Russians know what they think. Berdyansk.
https://twitter.com/TIME/status/1498524264198193153
mrrosenthal
Member
My quote from a few days ago. The headlines of Ukraines 'resistance' are false. Ukraine will be destroyed or will capitulate, and likely both will happen if pride gets in the way. Russia will allow for civilian evacuations, offer negotiations on Russian terms. If the terms are not accepted, Russia will destroy as far as their eye can see.
Shipments of military gear won't save Ukraine.
My quote from 3 days ago still holds.
Shipments of military gear won't save Ukraine.
My quote from 3 days ago still holds.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
Russian ex-official: Putin’s plan is full victory by March 2
Former Russian deputy FM Fedorov says the first days of March are important in the Russian-Ukrainian war.
I ask the same Financial colleagues on this time table. They seems to think this's the initial Putin time table. Putin seems believe after his armed forces pacified most Ukraine AF and Navy, and circles most of Ukraine Army in big cities especially Kyiv, Zelensky will go to negotiation table under his term.
He seems believe Zelensky will not going to risk destruction of Kyiv which he believes is the heart of Ukraine. He seems right one of thing, Kyiv is heart of Ukraine but Zelensky so far determine to hold it at all cost.
Destruction of Kyiv will also not going to be popular with Russian public (at least that what I got from my colleagues). That's what worrying if Zelensky do not cave in, and Putin become emotional and decided to eliminate Zelensky (instead push him to negotiation). Something that US intelligence seems also worried.
Like it or not, Russia so far still doing 'limited' force on their standard (if we compared what they have done to Grozny). I do afraid it will change soon, as Putin now being cornered Internationally but more important domestically. He must shown some results soon to Russian public.
Todjaeger
Potstirrer
The potential implications of the article are significant, as are the dangers it represents to world peace and stability, and everything and everyone which has benefitted from both.
The article, with the implication that the Ukraine will once again become part of a new Greater Russian "empire" following a successful campaign of conquest, would be a return to the past where 'might makes right', only now it can be backed up by the threat (or possibly even the use) of nuclear weapons.
Imagine what could get triggered, should Russian leadership decide that they must have a direct land connection to Kaliningrad. Or for that matter, should the leadership decide that it is time for any/all other former Soviet/Tsarist Russian territories to be 'reunited'.
So far, the efforts have been more limited than they otherwise could have been. However, it seems the ambitions are to such that regaining control of former territories by force is acceptable, and left unchecked will most likely lead to warfare on a much wider scale.
the concerned
Active Member
I don't understand first the West wants to cripple the Russians with wide ranging sanctions then they reward them. They have banned the latest batman movie from Russia ( lucky b*****ds). Think of all that suffering they have been saved
Ananda
The Bunker Group
Agree on that. That's why I'm worried if Putin fell him self being cornered more. However I do have suspicion that Ukraine will be his limit for time being. His conventional Armed Forces after Ukraine will be shown the limit of how far they can be strech.
Weapons Group Points to Ukraine in Bid to Shape ESG Rulebook
With a Russian invasion right on its doorstep, Europe now finds itself discussing whether weapons should be listed as ESG assets, to grant them more favorable access to financing.
www.bloomberg.com
Put this to shown how EU try to find a way to finance defense enlargement. EU financial institutions so far being hampered by their own regulations to finance defense. That's not happen in US as far as I know. US Financial institutions are more open to involved financing defense contractors whether for domestic or export usage.
Whatever the result in Ukraine, Russia must step back to reasses the resources capabilities. At the same time the rest of EU rearming themselves, which will limit what Russia can do after Ukraine.
Ironically, this is what Trump wants for EU to do.
I had a read of it out of interest. It's the "The Offensive of Russia and the New World". Some excerpts.
Russia restores its unity – the tragedy of 1991, this terrible catastrophe of our history, its unnatural dislocation, has been overcome. Yes, at a high price, yes, through the tragic events of the actual civil war, because now brothers are still shooting at each other, separated by belonging to the Russian and Ukrainian armies – but Ukraine as there will be no more anti-Russia. Russia is restoring its historical fullness by gathering the Russian world, the Russian people together – in all its totality of Great Russians, Belarusians and Little Russians. If we had abandoned this, if we had allowed the temporary division to take hold for centuries, we would not only have betrayed the memory of our ancestors, but we would have been cursed by our descendants for allowing the disintegration of the Russian land. ... Ukraine has returned to Russia. This does not mean that its statehood will be liquidated, but it will be restructured, re-established and returned to its natural state part of the Russian world. Within what borders, in what form the union with Russia will be fixed (through CSTO and Eurasian Union or Union State Russia and Belarus)? This will be decided after the end is put to the history of Ukraine as an anti-Russia. In any case, the period of split of the Russian people is coming to an end. ...
And here begins the second dimension of the coming new era – it concerns Russia's relations with the West. Not even Russia, but the Russian world, that is, three states, Russia, Belarus and Ukraine, acting geopolitically as a single whole. These relations have entered a new stage – the West sees Russia's return to its historical borders in Europe. And he loudly resents this, although deep down he must admit to himself that it could not have been otherwise. Is there anyone in the old European capitals, in Paris and Berlin, seriously believed that Moscow will refuse Kiev? That Russians will forever be a divided people? And at the same time, when Europe is uniting, when the German and French elites are trying to seize control over European integration from the Anglo-Saxons and assemble a united Europe? Forgetting that the unification of Europe became possible only through unification Germany, which happened by Russian good (albeit not very clever) will. To swing after that also on Russian lands is the height not even of ingratitude, but of geopolitical stupidity. The West as a whole, and even more so Europe individually, did not have the strength to keep in its sphere of influence, and even more so to take Ukraine for itself. Not to understand this, one had to be just geopolitical fools. ...
Because the construction of a new world order – and this is the third dimension of current events – is accelerating, and its contours are becoming more and more clearly visible through the sprawling veil of Anglo-Saxon globalization. The multipolar world has finally become a reality – the operation in Ukraine is not able to rally anyone but the West against Russia. Because the rest of the world perfectly sees and understands that this is a conflict between Russia and the West, this is a response to the geopolitical expansion of the Atlanticists, this is Russia's return of its historical space and its place in the world. China and India, Latin America and Africa, the islamic world and Southeast Asia No one believes that the West rules the world order, much less sets the rules of the game. Russia has not just challenged the West – it has shown that the era of Western global domination can be considered completely and finally over. The new world will be built by all civilizations and centers of power, of course, together with the West (united or not) – but not on its terms and not according to its rules.
Source: Наступление России и нового мира
Makes for some interesting and entertaining reading. The writer must've been on the good vodka that day, but it does give n insight into the mindset of Putin's cronies and enablers. I've taken to calling him Putin the Putrid elsewhere.
There are plenty of demonstrations around the world against Putin and his war. One occurred in my home city and what was neat to see was both Ukrainians and Russians standing together to voice their opposition and displeasure.
Russian and Ukrainian community in Christchurch protest against conflict - NZ Herald
Then there is the Russian in Melbourne, Australia who has burned his Russian passport in anger in public.
Russia invades Ukraine: Russian man burns passport as thousands in Melbourne rally against war - NZ Herald
Good on these peoples. BZ to all.
Russian and Ukrainian community in Christchurch protest against conflict - NZ Herald
Then there is the Russian in Melbourne, Australia who has burned his Russian passport in anger in public.
Russia invades Ukraine: Russian man burns passport as thousands in Melbourne rally against war - NZ Herald
Good on these peoples. BZ to all.
MARKMILES77
Active Member
Surprised how much trouble the RUAF is having.
British MOD say Russia does not have control of the Air.
British MOD say Russia does not have control of the Air.
MARKMILES77
Active Member
Not sure that night operations is going to make any difference for them either.