The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[Hannibal88]

According to the Russian Federation Ministry of Defense:

The RF Armed Forces hit 821 objects of the military infrastructure of Ukraine

. Among them: 14 military airfields, 19 command posts and communication centers, 24 S-300 and Osa anti-aircraft missile systems, 48 radar stations.

Shot down: 7 combat aircraft, 7 helicopters, 9 unmanned aerial vehicles.

87 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 28 multiple launch rocket systems, 118 units of special military vehicles, 8 military boats of the Ukrainian naval forces were destroyed.

The units of the Russian armed forces have established full control over the city of Melitopol.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497465890073423876

 

[T.C.P]

what is the most accurate news od Russian soldiers in Kyev? Have they secured pockets of the capital? I saw a bunch of videos of firefights supposedly in Kyev, but no concrete evidence of Russian troop presence.

 

[Feanor]

what is the most accurate news od Russian soldiers in Kyev? Have they secured pockets of the capital? I saw a bunch of videos of firefights supposedly in Kyev, but no concrete evidence of Russian troop presence.

I don't think there are any significant Russian troops in Kiev. The assault is yet to come.

 

[Steinmetz]

what is the most accurate news od Russian soldiers in Kyev? Have they secured pockets of the capital? I saw a bunch of videos of firefights supposedly in Kyev, but no concrete evidence of Russian troop presence.

Mainly SoF and VDV. Though, I'm seeing more and more evidence of friendly fire among the Ukrainians. Feanor had a good comprehensive update back on post #653.

 

[mrrosenthal]

Russia will spend a few days to encircle the various cities, and destroy the air power of Ukraine. Russia will destroy Ukraines military infrastructure, and will attempt take kiev, but won't commit serious effort until its routes of advance and logistics are stabilized and reinforced.
Then Russia will offer negotiations while Ukraine is at knifepoint.

 

[Arji]

Russia will spend a few days to encircle the various cities, and destroy the air power of Ukraine. It will destroy military infrastructure, and will attempt take kiev, but won't commit serious effort until its routes of advance and logistics are stabilized and reinforced.
Then Russia will offer negotiations while Ukraine is at knifepoint.

I have no idea how you came to that conclusion, care to elaborate further?

 

[denix56]

The Strela-10 is almost certainly Ukrainian. Russian troops haven't entered Kiev yet, and a Strela-10 rolling around by itself is strange. To be honest, I haven't seen any Russian Strela-10 this conflict yet. For air defense I've seen Pantsyrs, Tors, and Tunguskas. To top it off the video is somewhat old now, and I think it's the same Strela-10 as in my post above.

There was a report , that this Strela belonged to that group of Russian specops that tried to enter Kyiv in Ukrainian uniform followed by Russian soldiers

 

[Steinmetz]

Apparently there is footage of Ukrainian soldiers surrendering from Snake Island. Contradicts the reports of their heroic deaths.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497464002586238976

Помните украинских пограничников с острова.. | Военный Осведомитель | VK

 

[Hannibal88]

Apparently there is footage of Ukrainian soldiers surrendering from Snake Island. Contradicts the reports of their heroic deaths.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497464002586238976

Помните украинских пограничников с острова.. | Военный Осведомитель | VK

Seems like a bad case of propaganda/PsyOps gone wrong.

Ukrainian soldiers told to go home by Russian LNR separatists

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497470764471275526

Ukrainian forces captured by Russian forces

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497470884919099400

 

[ngatimozart]

I don't see why this can't simply be true. Tinder is a popular service these days, and a large number of young soldiers undoubtedly use it.

Don't know if they'd get much of a welcome, especially if they are like this woman.

Russia invades Ukraine: Woman praised after confronting group of Russian soldiers - NZ Herald

Translation from video​

WOMAN: Who are you?

SOLDIER: We have exercises here. Please go this way.

WOMAN: What kind of exercises? Are you Russian?

SOLDIER: Yes.

WOMAN: So what the f**k are you doing here?

SOLDIER: Right now, our discussion will lead to nothing.

WOMAN: You're occupants, you're fascists! What the f**k are you doing on our land with all these guns? Take these seeds and put them in your pockets, so at least sunflowers [Ukranian national flower] will grow after you die.​

​

SOLDIER: Right now, our discussion will lead nowhere. Let's not escalate this situation. Please.​

​

WOMAN: What situation? Guys, guys. Put the sunflower seeds in your pockets, please. You will lie down here with the seeds. You came to my land. Do you understand? You are occupiers. You are enemies.​

​

SOLDIER: Yes.​

​

WOMAN: And from this moment, you are cursed. I'm telling you.​

​

SOLDIER: Now listen to me –​

​

WOMAN: I've heard you!​

​

SOLDIER: Let's not escalate the situation. Please go this way.​

​

WOMAN: How can it be further escalated? You f**king came here uninvited. Pieces of s***!​

I saw another video of a woman giving the Russians a right telling off too. Shame I can't speak Ukrainian or Russian but she was really going to town on them.

 

[Feanor]

There was a report , that this Strela belonged to that group of Russian specops that tried to enter Kyiv in Ukrainian uniform followed by Russian soldiers

It's not clear what the point of any of this would be. There's on-going hysteria about Russian infiltrators in Kiev that doesn't seem to have any connection to real military planning or even common sense. Occam's razor, it looks like a Ukrainian Strela-10, there's no sign of any Strela-10s in Russian formations, and there's no real evidence of any Russian infiltrators. It's probably a Ukrainina Strela-10 that made a basic driving error and caused an accident. These things happen.

Don't know if they'd get much of a welcome, especially if they are like this woman.

Russia invades Ukraine: Woman praised after confronting group of Russian soldiers - NZ Herald

Translation from video
WOMAN: Who are you?

SOLDIER: We have exercises here. Please go this way.

WOMAN: What kind of exercises? Are you Russian?

SOLDIER: Yes.

WOMAN: So what the f**k are you doing here?

SOLDIER: Right now, our discussion will lead to nothing.

WOMAN: You're occupants, you're fascists! What the f**k are you doing on our land with all these guns? Take these seeds and put them in your pockets, so at least sunflowers [Ukranian national flower] will grow after you die.

SOLDIER: Right now, our discussion will lead nowhere. Let's not escalate this situation. Please.

WOMAN: What situation? Guys, guys. Put the sunflower seeds in your pockets, please. You will lie down here with the seeds. You came to my land. Do you understand? You are occupiers. You are enemies.

SOLDIER: Yes.

WOMAN: And from this moment, you are cursed. I'm telling you.

SOLDIER: Now listen to me –

WOMAN: I've heard you!

SOLDIER: Let's not escalate the situation. Please go this way.

WOMAN: How can it be further escalated? You f**king came here uninvited. Pieces of s***!

I saw another video of a woman giving the Russians a right telling off too. Shame I can't speak Ukrainian or Russian but she was really going to town on them.

Not surprising. There are plenty in Ukraine that are unhappy and unafraid. Given that Russia can't afford bad PR on this invasion, it's likely they will be careful to treat civilians reasonably well. So there will be plenty of cases where locals say what they think in no uncertain terms to Russian troops.

 

[mrrosenthal]

Russia-Ukraine Warning Update: Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 25, 2022 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)

Everyone should read this professional analysis.
Basically, Russia is using its deep strike, will pin down cities and hasn't used most of its missiles and man power and destructive capability. It has 4 axis of attack, and will reinforce whatever axis needs it and attack whatever is weak.
It has a hit list of infastructure and enough misssiles to get the job done.It has exact numbers of airfields, s-300s, tanks, and structures already destroyed. They know what they are doing.

Russia is holding back its power for now. Realistically, besides heroic actions by Zelensky and Ukrainian people, Ukraine is unable to fight against a military super power. As soon as air superiority is obtained, Ukraine won't be secure, but it will be occupied.

 

[Steinmetz]

I saw another video of a woman giving the Russians a right telling off too. Shame I can't speak Ukrainian or Russian but she was really going to town on them.

Here's another one. Reminds me of a grandpa scolding young kids. Not sure what he is saying.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497478233662525440

 

[Muukalainen]

I've been trying to get a gauge on the broad direction of the war. My general impression is that Russia has been broadly successful, in some areas less than it might have hoped, but successful nonetheless. None of Ukraine's action have inspired much confidence, i.e. handing guns out to anyone and their wild claims of Russian casualties, in their ability to defeat Russia. I am misreading the current information?

 

[Hannibal88]

From the reports that I've seen thus far there seems to be a consistent pattern reoccurring that indicates that the bulk of Ukrainian Propaganda/Psyops is being directly curated and directed by the British defense ministry/MI6. Recent intel that I've come across confirms this to be the case, not surprising by any means but it's worth mentioning.

@Hannibal88

You need to justify the claim of British input with a reliable source. Otherwise this is trolling. You have 24 hours to provide this or you are like to face a ban. 10 warning points for six months have already been applied for the lack of any reference or link to a source.

Alexsa


It also looks like multiple Russian helicopters are conducting strikes from the skies of Kiev Oblast

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497475530064465921

@Hannibal88

You were warned. You have not provided a reliable source for this claim or provided any reason why this is acceptable. Banned for one month.

Alexsa

 

[the concerned]

From what I understand Belarus is being targeted with sanctions just the same as Russia. Surely this will bit much quicker as they don't have the ability to ride this out like Putin. How long before cracks appear with that relationship and could this become Putins next problem.

 

[Toptob]

War planners don’t think like civilians — factoring in a SEAD mission is not the be all of de-risking an airborne mission. Ops planning is a disciplined process to consider METT-TC. METT-TC stands for mission, enemy, terrain, troops available, time, and civilian considerations.

I have to say that the Ukrainian air defense is quite a bit more active and effective than I had expected beforehand. But I have to say that Russian SEAD efforts do seem to be lacking, apart from cruise missile strikes and bombings on air fields there seems to be little evidence of the targeted hunting for air defense nor are they exploiting the superiority they could (possibly?) achieve in the air. It is not like what we're used to with American led warfare where they methodically suppress and destroy enemy air and air defense assets and infrastructure before the assault or in the beginning phases.

But you're right that this is probably part of their planning because it seems the Russians much like the Soviets before them prefer to rely more on artillery for their support fires. I saw a map displaying what air assets where propositioned around Ukraine (I can't seem to find it anymore) and they looked to be very light on fast air considering the size of the VVS. They did bring a large amount of assorted rotorcraft, especially the amount of Ka-52's compared to Mi 24/35 seemed high considering their numbers in service.

It does make me wonder which assets would even perform SEAD missions? The Su-34's look like the logical choice to me, but the Su-25's or Ka-52's should be able to do the destruction part. I don't know about the suppression part, do they even use jamming pods on the Su-25's?

In any case, despite the tragic nature of the situation. It is somewhat fascinating to see modern air power go up against a seemingly well organized and reasonably well equipped air defense. It's something we haven't seen at this scale since desert storm, or maybe the Balkan wars.

EDIT:

I just saw this : Zelensky is saying that France is sending weapons to Ukraine. I wonder what they're sending them!

 

[Feanor]

I have to say that the Ukrainian air defense is quite a bit more active and effective than I had expected beforehand. But I have to say that Russian SEAD efforts do seem to be lacking, apart from cruise missile strikes and bombings on air fields there seems to be little evidence of the targeted hunting for air defense nor are they exploiting the superiority they could (possibly?) achieve in the air. It is not like what we're used to with American led warfare where they methodically suppress and destroy enemy air and air defense assets and infrastructure before the assault or in the beginning phases.

On the one hand Russia has little experience in the area so it's to be expected that they're less effective. On the other hand, we have plenty of footage of destroyed Ukrainain radars, S-300s, Buks, Osa, etc. Russia has done quite a number on Ukrainian air defense, just hasn't gotten anywhere near all of it.

But you're right that this is probably part of their planning because it seems the Russians much like the Soviets before them prefer to rely more on artillery for their support fires. I saw a map displaying what air assets where propositioned around Ukraine (I can't seem to find it anymore) and they looked to be very light on fast air considering the size of the VVS. They did bring a large amount of assorted rotorcraft, especially the amount of Ka-52's compared to Mi 24/35 seemed high considering their numbers in service.

It does make me wonder which assets would even perform SEAD missions? The Su-34's look like the logical choice to me, but the Su-25's or Ka-52's should be able to do the destruction part. I don't know about the suppression part, do they even use jamming pods on the Su-25's?

I'm seeing shockingly little Russian fixed-wing activity. With the good work Su-34s and Su-30SMs did in Syria, it really makes me wonder.

 

[T.C.P]

The video of a Russian chopper mi-35/24 taking out the buk system right beside driving civilians was insane.

Overall, its very impressive how Russia has been hitting so many military targets while keeping civilians casualties to such a minimum. During the Georgian war, I don't recall Russia having such precision. They have really upped their precision strike game.

I'm seeing shockingly little Russian fixed-wing activity. With the good work Su-34s and Su-30SMs did in Syria, it really makes me wonder.

This has been extremely odd, I havent seen any reports or videos of Su-34s being used. Is Russia that scared of losing a few of these units to anti-air. I thought they had over 100 of these operational. In Syria we saw how much damage just a few Su-34s did, would this not be the best system to batter up Kyev with before an Assault?

 

[Boagrius]

On the one hand Russia has little experience in the area so it's to be expected that they're less effective. On the other hand, we have plenty of footage of destroyed Ukrainain radars, S-300s, Buks, Osa, etc. Russia has done quite a number on Ukrainian air defense, just hasn't gotten anywhere near all of it.



I'm seeing shockingly little Russian fixed-wing activity. With the good work Su-34s and Su-30SMs did in Syria, it really makes me wonder.

It makes me wonder whether SEAD/DEAD is primarily being conducted by aircraft or MLRS/missile units. The latter would seem to play to Russia's strengths in-theatre?