The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Musashi_kenshin

Well-Known Member
The UN Security Council resolution condemning the invasion of Ukraine was vetoed by Russia. However, no one else voted against it - China, India and the UAE abstained.

This means that in addition to expected support from European states, Brazil, Gabon, Ghana, Kenya and Mexico all voted for it. Although this won't change Putin's tactics, right now it seems he has little international support. China's "alliance" with Russia not exactly delivering right now for the Kremlin.
 

Capt. Ironpants

Active Member
Russian troops are now engaging Ukrainian forces in the middle of Kiev as additional troops are expected to gradually flow into the capital in the coming hours. It's interesting that Zelensky has released a speech in which he indicates that the Russian forces will storm the capital tonight. As of now it is nearly 1:00 AM in Kyiv and in the last 38 hours since this war began it's been clear that Russia launches the majority of its strikes under the cover of the dark.

Here is a video of a gunfight in the center of Kiev

Assault also taking place in the Oblast region
Oblast region? Do you mean Kiev Oblast?
 

denix56

Active Member
China's "alliance" with Russia not exactly delivering right now for the Kremlin.
China plays its own game here. The heavily sanctioned Russia with no international support and probably not really adequate leader / afraid-of-west leader is just what it needs to fast forward consumption of Russia.
 

Capt. Ironpants

Active Member
Some news from banana republic world:
Abkhazia has recognized LDNR
Ah, Denix, we need a bit of humor in these dark times. From the Wars Can Be Strange Department: The Taliban has weighed in, citing concerns about "civilian casualties" and issued a statement urging both parties to "cease clashes" and “resolve the crisis through dialogue and peaceful means" and calling for "restraint by both parties. All sides need to desist from taking positions that could intensify violence.”
 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Post 1 of 4: Sharing some inchoate thoughts on war in Ukraine
China's "alliance" with Russia not exactly delivering right now for the Kremlin.
1. We should have realistic expectations — China’s help and stance prevents international organisations from taking a stronger stance on the invasion of Ukraine. Team Biden has tried to engage with China in the course of the Russian build up that is paying off. In a major diplomatic intervention, Chinese President Xi Jinping has asked Russian President Vladimir Putin to negotiate with Ukraine — with Beijing offering no clear endorsement of the ongoing war. “The situation in eastern Ukraine has undergone rapid changes, drawing great attention from the international community. China’s position would be based on the right and wrong in relation to the Ukraine issue itself,” Xi told Putin on 25 Feb 2022, Chinese state broadcaster CCTV reported.

2. Thus far, there is really good OPSEC from the Ukrainian military. There is hardly any user generated content from regular Ukrainian fighters. Indicative of good discipline, of a force that needs to remain in hiding and strike at the logistics tail of the Russian axis of advance.

3. Anyone who has participated in war planning, would be aware of Marshall Georgy Konstantinovich Zhukov’s deep strike doctrine. The Soviet era deep strike doctrine, is about fast moving columns advancing to encircle and overwhelm enemy forces.
(a) The Russian Army in Ukraine is able to conduct deep fires, their battle groups are well supported by MLRS and artillery, and they have limited air superiority — enough to conduct heliborne operations. Given that only 30% to 45% of Russian forces are committed to the push into Ukraine, the Russians have ample reserves and they have multiple echelons of troops to push forward or rotate their forces, as this fight is expected to drag on.​
(b) Russian forces failed to secure Hostomel airport by air assault and appear to have taken it only when tanks and IFVs from Belarus arrived. Ukrainian defenders have damaged the runway enough to make it unusable, for a time.​
(c) Despite the minor set back at Hostomel airport, the Russians are in the opening phase of their offensive. They are shaping the battlefield and preparing for the larger thrusts. The fact that the Russians have pushed into Kiev, Kharikov and Kherson should not be dismissed. Successive waves of Russian forces will exploit any axes of advance that look promising — this includes inserting heliborne forces. But the key is to move fast, even if the Russians end up losing a few armoured recon units, as they advance. Other than Donbas, Russian ground forces are advancing on 3 axes: (i) Belarus/Kyiv; (ii) Kharkiv; and (iii) Crimea-Kherson.​

4. If you are the Ukrainian Army’s war planner and you know that the Russian Army is gonna use some variant of deep strike doctrine and advance on the three predicted axis, what do you do? The goal is to let the armoured columns pass and then destroy the logistics tail using stay behind parties armed with anti-tank weapons. The high percentage of non-tank military vehicles destroyed certainly lends credence to this hypothesis. I think, we will be seeing more of these types of attacks on the Russian logistics tail.

5. The other thing is, the Ukrainian Army, will want to slow the advance to a crawl, once the Russians enter restricted terrain, like urban areas in Kiev. And I expect more fighting in Kherson by Ukrainian stay behind forces. I am certain that there are more Russian echelons coming — the Russians will still want to overwhelm Kyiv. If the Ukrainian Army can slow this Russian advance into Kyiv by 14 to 21 days and inflict significant casualties, they will be seen by war planners as putting up a credible fight. Thus far, we see determined and well-organized Ukrainian resistance around Kyiv and Kharkiv. This has also played an important role in preventing the Russian military from advancing with the speed they want. The down side to this type of war plan is the number of civilians that will get caught up in the fighting.
 
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denix56

Active Member
2. Thus far, there is really good OPSEC from the Ukrainian military. There is hardly any user generated content from regular Ukrainian fighters. Indicative of good discipline, of a force that needs to remain in hiding and strike at the logistics tail of the Russian axis of advance.
Also there are lots of posts in telegram channels urging local people not to post any videos of UA troops and post all the videos / info of the Russian troop movements. So far it works to some extent.

And Russians mostly can’t post anything as there was info that the mobile phones were confiscated before attack to prevent any info leak.
 
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Ah, Denix, we need a bit of humor in these dark times. From the Wars Can Be Strange Department: The Taliban has weighed in, citing concerns about "civilian casualties" and issued a statement urging both parties to "cease clashes" and “resolve the crisis through dialogue and peaceful means" and calling for "restraint by both parties. All sides need to desist from taking positions that could intensify violence.”
Took a long time before I agreed with the Taliban about something...
 

denix56

Active Member
Some info (it was several hours ago) from the village in Odesska oblast (it came from parents of my friend) - Russian specops / paratroopers (let’s say soldiers) tried to enter the houses / flats of local people and even breaking the doors sometimes and changed clothes to look like civilian.
 

Capt. Ironpants

Active Member
For what it's worth, this came out a few hours ago, almost posted it then, but ... anyway, here it is:


I'll let you experts decide whether it's useful here. It appears to be fairly on-the-money to me.
 

Hannibal88

New Member
There are reports and videos showing that Kiev is currently being struck by Ballistic/Cruise missiles from land and sea installations. Also multiple reports of Russian troops and armor moving from their position in Sumy Oblast (SouthEast of Kiev and North of Kharkiv).

Russian Tanks in the city of Sumy

What sounds like a large blast in Kiev amid fighting

Also seems like the Chechnyan army, which arguably have some of the most battle hardened soldiers in Russia (Autonomous region within Russia) are more than happy to assist with the Ukrainian Invasion if Putin feels that extra force is needed. I've heard some of their spetznas forces "The Hunters" are currently in Ukraine right now and tasked with taking out the critical targets.

 
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denix56

Active Member
1:
5. The other thing is, the Ukrainian Army, will want to slow the advance to a crawl, once the Russians enter restricted terrain, like urban areas in Kiev. And I expect more fighting in Kherson by Ukrainian stay behind forces. I am certain that there are more Russian echelons coming — the Russians will still want to overwhelm Kyiv. If the Ukrainian Army can slow this Russian advance into Kyiv by 14 to 21 days and inflict significant casualties, they will be seen by war planners as putting up a credible fight. Thus far, we see determined and well-organized Ukrainian resistance around Kyiv and Kharkiv. This has also played an important role in preventing the Russian military from advancing with the speed they want. The down side to this type of war plan is the number of civilians that will get caught up in the fighting.
I really hope it will be solved before. The people are ready to fight (military guys waited 6-7 years to be able to revenge as much of their guys from 2014-2015 as possible; also long time before I spoke with some of people from Western regions, who are probably in territorial Defence now - while they might not have proper military training, they are really ready to die), but what the point to have only ruins and corpses left?
There are lots of Europe / USA / Russian / Chinese money here. While the factories were not damaged a lot (only some part of them as far as I know) the prolonged fighting will definitely cause total destruction (one of the power plants near Kyiv was destroyed already).

2.

I live in Germany now and it was a drastic change in the last 24h
On 24th nearly no one knew that something was going on here or thought it is some kind of exaggeration in the social media (in the evening I spoke with the local professor who I know - he didn’t believe social media until I confirmed it).
At the war protest on that day it seemed people started believing the news, as lots of Germans came.
On 25th I heard people discussing the news everywhere, it was a real shock for them that it is actually happened (not so many people believed before I think, considering good Russia-Germany relations).

Interestingly, on the protest one of the elder guys didn’t like the poster “Poland 1939, Ukraine 2022”, saying it is incorrect to use it in Germany, probably meaning that it looks like Germany is the cause of it (that is actually not so far from truth in my opinion).
 
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Capt. Ironpants

Active Member
Some info (it was several hours ago) from the village in Odesska oblast (it came from parents of my friend) - Russian specops / paratroopers (let’s say soldiers) tried to enter the houses / flats of local people and even breaking the doors sometimes and changed clothes to look like civilian.
It sounds like those guys were in trouble somehow, got stranded away from their unit or something. Soldiers on the losing side broke into my house apparently looking for civilian clothing back in former Yugoslavia. My clothes were pulled out of my trunk and scattered everywhere. I'm sure they were disappointed at finding tiny girlie stuff. All they took were my big "man shirts" I sometimes wore in the field to conceal the camera I used take pictures for evidence, and a wonderful medical field kit given to me by German military doctors. (I hoped they put it to good use and glad I had grabbed the burn dressings and stuffed them into my bugout bag because it turned out we needed them.) On that awful drive to negotiate the surrender, I thought I spotted a scrawny little guy among the throng of refugees wearing a shirt just like mine. When I got home days later to grab my stuff, sure enough, my living room looked like an explosion in a clothing store and that shirt was missing.
 

Capt. Ironpants

Active Member
Also there are lots of posts in telegram channels urging local people not to post any videos of UA troops and post all the videos / info of the Russian troop movements. So far it works to some extent.

And Russians mostly can’t post anything as there was info that the mobile phones were confiscated before attack to prevent any info leak.
Back to the Wars Can Be Strange Department, either all the Russians' cell phones weren't confiscated, or this British tabloid is running a very phoney (pun not originally intended) story, or there is a really weird PsyOps thing going on:

 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Ex-Mediacorp actor Ix Shen (49), from Singapore, shared about his experience living in Ukraine's capital Kyiv during the ongoing Russian invasion. His Ukrainian wife is a reservist medical officer who might be mobilised.

Shen said that he had sufficient rations and water to last through "a period of time", and did not see the need to evacuate yet, as long as the electricity and Internet is still working.

Despite the instability in recent years, Shen remarked that the people in Ukraine have continued to thrive. As for himself, he is determined to stay and support those around him through this difficult period. "I could not live with myself if I didn't stick around to help," he said.
 

Arji

Active Member
Back to the Wars Can Be Strange Department, either all the Russians' cell phones weren't confiscated, or this British tabloid is running a very phoney (pun not originally intended) story, or there is a really weird PsyOps thing going on:

I really hate this crap. I get that the Russia is the "bad guy" now, but some media in their attempt to satisfy the demand of more "Russia bad" story, wrote an entirely unrelated article of an otherwise obscure and anecdotal incident. I personally don't think it's any kind of PsyOps, just corporate greed I'm afraid. It may actually be damaging, as you just know that some idiots that can't keep his/her emotions in check will eventually come to the impression that ALL Russian is degenerates and subhuman.
 

Capt. Ironpants

Active Member
I really hate this crap. I get that the Russia is the "bad guy" now, but some media in their attempt to satisfy the demand of more "Russia bad" story, wrote an entirely unrelated article of an otherwise obscure and anecdotal incident. I personally don't think it's any kind of PsyOps, just corporate greed I'm afraid. It may actually be damaging, as you just know that some idiots that can't keep his/her emotions in check will eventually come to the impression that ALL Russian is degenerates and subhuman.
I hate it, too. And I agree on the corporate greed part. As for PsyOps, I was joking (as in someone thought it was a good idea to smear the Russians this way by sending fake Tinder messages, knowing it would get lapped up by the cheesier and sleazier British and American media outlets). Strange things do happen (like the Viagra rape propaganda during the bombing of Libya trumpeted all over the American press until the CIA finally issued a statement that it was false), but surely this is just *too* strange to be part of a propaganda campaign.
 

denix56

Active Member


One of Russia's closest allies denies request for troops

Peter Alexander
2h ago / 1:21 AM CET
Kazakhstan, one of Russia's closest allies and a southern neighbor, is denying a request for its troops to join the offensive in Ukraine, officials said Friday.

Additionally, the former Soviet republic said it is not recognizing the Russia-created breakaway republics upheld by Russia's president, Vladimir Putin, as a pretext for its aggression in Ukraine.

Despite ceasefire accords covering the disputed land, Putin on Monday declared Russia's recognition of Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) and the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) as independent states.

The surprising development from a traditional ally of Russia has the support of the United States.

“We welcome Kazakhstan’s announcement that they will not recognize the LPR and DPR," the National Security Council said in a statement. "We also welcome Kazakhstan’s refusal to send its forces to join Putin’s war in Ukraine."

It seems not everyone is ready for sanctions
 

Toptob

Active Member
That's because the Netherlands voluntarily joined the EEA and EU. The rules apply to everyone the same - if you don't like being in the EU, you can elect a government that will leave.

The Netherlands is a democratic country, but that doesn't mean minorities can insist on policy changes. Having functioning government means that sometimes people like yourself have to accept you don't get your way. Even then you still have rights Russians don't. You can form political parties or join ones in opposition to the Dutch government. You can protest or criticise the government without worrying about being arrested and thrown in jail.

In short, I'm not sure you appreciate the freedoms you have because you're so used to them.
1. Nobody elected our prime minister at the time to sign away our sovereignty and 10% of our economy in the treaty of Maastricht, and the "people" that elected him where neither asked (through referendum) nor informed about the repercussions. It was negotiated over and decided on by the "ruling elite" in backrooms, just like everything is decided in the EU.

2. The Netherlands has a functioning, "democratic" government in the sense that the country is ruled by bureaucrats (the deep state if you will) and we get to choose between different people who'll do as they're told.

3. And you can form political parties and say what you want as long as it doesn't go against the ruling elite, otherwise you'll find out very quickly that these supposed "freedoms" are limited, very much like the are in Russia. (We can discuss this somewhere else, but I have more than enough examples to illustrate this argument).

In short, I believe that you like many others fully buy into the Western propaganda many of us where raised on.

To bring this back on topic, I'm not saying Putin is the "good guy" or that fighting a war is a positive thing. But it irks me that there is an assumption that the West is any less vicious or warmongering than anybody else. I think that people are thoroughly propagandized, but I think that people who think that the West is better are equally misled. That is not to say that I'm against the "West" or that I don't think that we should be better or more peaceful.

I am a denizen of the West and as such my survival and prosperity is linked to its position in the world. Therefore I want my side to do everything to be in the best position it can be, because I know that life can be a whole lot worse. But I also know that the situation we're faced with at the moment, is something that my side has also had a hand in creating by making bad moves, being greedy and overestimating our own position.


In other news... This is the position a lot of Western militaries are in: German Lieutenant General Alfons Mais said:

"In my 41th year of peace-time service, I would not have thought that I would have to experience a war," Lieutenant General Alfons Mais said on LinkedIn on Thursday.

"And the Bundeswehr, the army which I have the honour to command, is standing there more or less empty-handed. The options we can offer the government in support of the alliance are extremely limited."


What is the readiness like around Europe? In this article the Dutch defense minister is quoted as saying: ,,Dat betekent dat verloven kunnen worden ingetrokken. Dit is heel impactvol.’’ . Meaning that there is a possibility that leave may be cancelled, which worries me because I assumed that leave would have been cancelled days ago. I know the Poles are mobilizing so shouldn't the whole of Europe be on high alert and getting ready to move out at a moments notice?

If there was ever a time to recall the troops to their barracks and get them ready for operations... wouldn't now be that time? Or is it all just theater and is this threat that Russia supposedly poses to Eastern Europe just theater to rile up the populace?

Mod Edit: Five warning points given for a thread derail — keep to the topic of discussion. More sanctions to follow, if this warning is not taken seriously.
 
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