The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[STURM]

EDIT: Oryx blog confirms the same 1 lost T-80. 30 sounds like fantasy.

A Twitter link to a video was provided by a member here yesterday. Its turret was blown off.

 

[Rock the kasbah]

Assistance for logistical and medical support of the Armed Forces of Ukraine – Official website of Ukraine

Please donate the funds for logistical and medical support of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in UAH to the bank account of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine,

ukraine.ua

An FYI
I thought I would post this, I have no idea as yet if it is legitimate or not perhaps others on here may know.

 

[Unric]

Three KC-135s seem to be hanging around the west side of Ukraine a lot. I get the global hawk doing donuts over the black sea but why do they want three tankers hanging around? Is there likely a lot of military flights not showing up on flight24 that need tanking? I would have thought rc-135s would have made more sense - are these possibly mislabeled rc-135s?

 

[Feanor]

There are multiple reports on something was destroyed over Kyiv, either a missile (more likely) or a drone. Some suggest that 2 Russian ballistic missiles were destroyed. But it could be anything (plane or other missile type).
View attachment 48942

It's a Kalibr missile apparently.

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[Steinmetz]

Three KC-135s seem to be hanging around the west side of Ukraine a lot. I get the global hawk doing donuts over the black sea but why do they want three tankers hanging around? Is there likely a lot of military flights not showing up on flight24 that need tanking? I would have thought rc-135s would have made more sense - are these possibly mislabeled rc-135s?

There were at least 4 RC-135's up over Poland and the Baltics last time I checked. Callsign codes changed a bit. Apparently some fight jets doing a constant patrol over Poland as well. Probably to show the Russians they mean business and keep there air defenses busy watching. So that would explain why there are so many tankers up.

UPDATE on the aircraft that was shot down over Kiev. Apparently it was a Ukrainian Su-27 flying low, beneath the clouds over the city. Per a report from Matthew Chance(CNN).

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497052351743492096

It's a Kalibr missile apparently.

Oh, well. Still conflicting sources then. Well, apparently the plane was shot down while there was a concurrent kalibr strike.

 

[Feanor]

There were at least 4 RC-135's up over Poland and the Baltics last time I checked. Callsign codes changed a bit. Apparently some fight jets doing a constant patrol over Poland as well. Probably to show the Russians they mean business and keep there air defenses busy watching. So that would explain why there are so many tankers up.

UPDATE on the aircraft that was shot down over Kiev. Apparently it was a Ukrainian Su-27 flying low, beneath the clouds over the city. Per a report from Matthew Chance(CNN).

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497052351743492096

Oh, well. Still conflicting sources then. Well, apparently the plane was shot down while there was a concurrent kalibr strike.

It's entirely plausible that there were multiple downings by multiple parties. The fragments found indicate a Kalibr missile, but a jet could have been shot down too.

 

[STURM]

It's quite clear to me now that Russia did not use most of their forces yet. It seems to me that they're trying to get as much as they can with minimal resistance.

That's the general feeling I get although one would think that Russia,would deploy all it has to its advantage in order to secure it's political and military objectives as fast as possible.

Much has been said/speculated about how capable the Russians really are, this conflict will provide us with an indication as its more challenging [and different] compared to what was faced in Syria and the eastern Ukraine. Given that they are advancing on multiple axis [something they mastered on a much larger scale and over much greater distances in WW2], logistics will be a major concern.

 

[Rob c]

Unlikely though not impossible It depends on what happens next. Generally waging an illegal war by itself doesn't qualify as a war crime. You had to do some pretty bad stuff during the war. I also don't see any signs of intentional murder of civilians with ballistic missiles. Not to mention that it doesn't make much sense in this context. If you look at the kinds of national leaders that have gotten convicted of warcrimes, you pretty much have ethnic cleansing, genocide, or an extremely dirty and bloody war. Far worse then anything we've seen here so far. Far worse then anything we can reasonably expect to see. If prior precedent is any indication, I wouldn't count on it. Though the world is changing, so who knows.

I just got these Nuremberg indictments that the German leadership faced from Wiki.

1. Participation in a common plan or conspiracy for the accomplishment of a crime against peace
2. Planning, initiating and waging wars of aggression and other crimes against peace
3. Participating in war crimes
4. Crimes against humanity

So it seems that Putin could qualify. This would be highly unlikely though, as the only way Putin is likely to be charged is to be captured somehow after being forcefully removed from office.

 

[Feanor]

Update.

Night time fighting continues in Sumy. The city is still burning. At least some of the fighting appears to be taking place in residential areas.

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Head of the Sumy city administration reports that additional Russian army units have passed by Sumy and area headed westward, towards Kiev. He also called on Ukrainians to take up arms, and reported the town of Konotopa to be surrounded by Russian troops.

Российская техника из города Сумы выехала в сторону Киева - глава Сумской ОГА

Несколько городов Сумской области осаждены.

www.unian.net

There are also reports of fighting in Ivankovo where a Russian element out of Belarus made it halfway to Kiev before running into Ukrainian resistance. Reportedly Ukrainian forces blew up a bridge. Past Ivankovo is Vyshgorod, and then Kiev. If Russian troops are still in or around Gostomel', this would be their closest reinforcement, not counting possible additional airdrops. Follow up reports have the troops already past Ivankovo and en route to Vyshgorod, fighting through some resistence at Dymer.

Colonelcassad

Генштаб ВСУ: В сторону Киева двигаются российские танки, но возле Иванкова (пол пути от границы до Киева) завязался бой. Украинские силы взорвали мост, чтобы остановить колонну РФ. После него открывается возможность наступать на Киев через Вышгород. #Россия #Украина @rybar

t.me

Рыбарь

⚡️ Колонна ВС РФ прошла Иванков и замечена в Дымере Киевской области. Войска успешно наступают на Киев со стороны Вышгорода. #Россия #Украина @rybar

t.me

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vk.com

There are reports of another Russian vertical envelopment, this time near Zhitomyr.

Colonelcassad

⚡️ГСЧС сообщает о высадке российского десанта в селе Павловка, Попельнянского района, Житомирской области. #Россия #Украина @rybar

t.me

Combat also took place in Akhtyrka, involving a Russian engineers unit. They left behind a Tayfun-K MRAP. This is the same unit that earlier lost 4 trucks, including a pontoon truck in the same area. It's possible this was all one incident.

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Reportedly local battles are still continuing around Kharkov.

Colonelcassad

Председатель Харьковской областной государственной администрации Олег Синегубов утверждает, что ВСУ и Силы территориальной обороны всю ночь вели бои в Дергачаха и Печенегах на подступах к Харькову. Отряды территориальной обороны доукомплектовывают. #Украина @rybar

t.me

The Rovno airfield got hit.

Colonelcassad

Аэропорт Ровно подвергся ракетному удару @anna_news

t.me

Ukrainian Buks have shown up in Kherson.

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Some footage of Kiev air defenses firing at incoming missiles.

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Service members of the Ukrainian 36th Marine Bde have been taken prisoner by DNR forces.

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Service members of Ukraine's 53rd Mech Brigade taken prisoner in Donetsk. There were earlier, unsubstantiated, reports that elements of this unit surrendered without a fight due to some sort of deal worked out. Given how clean they look, this is plausible.

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[Feanor]

Here is the report (maybe a bit too optimistic), but summarizes the situation in some way. It was taken from Facebook post of internet political party “Демократична Сокира», translated with google


The night has come, what do we have now and what should we prepare for?

At present, it can be stated that the lightning operation planned by Moscow failed and there were no global breakthroughs in any direction. The night will allow both us and the enemy to regroup and analyze the events of the previous day. Missile strikes on military facilities and infrastructure are likely again. But rest assured that our General Staff, like last night, will receive our intelligence in time and move our main means of resistance - anti-aircraft missile systems, aircraft and tanks.

If we look closely at the direction of the enemy offensive, in the north we have the following picture: Russian troops after long battles completely occupied the Chernobyl zone and all Chernobyl facilities, which in case of destruction of the Sarcophagus entails a man-made disaster. This is what we need to broadcast to all international partners and citizens of European countries! Also, their troops continue to control the suburbs and, according to various estimates, several areas of Sumy, where orcs in their favorite style rob stores. In these areas, the night will most likely not bring radical changes and will give us the opportunity to prepare to repel attempts to move forward.

In the Rivne region, at the end of the day, the tank side continued in the Velyki Osnyaky-Rivne region, but in general the offensive was stopped on the Uzh River. The situation is similar on the outskirts of Chernihiv and on the Kharkiv bypass. Most likely, it will not change until the morning, although provocations or "reconnaissance by battle" in the performance of small forces of the aggressor are possible.

The main victory of this evening is, of course, the elimination of the landing at Gostomel airport, which posed the danger of landing new units by landing Russian planes at the airport just 17 kilometers from Kiev.

In the South, in fact, the situation is more threatening, if we reject the delusion of a naval landing in Odessa and Nikolaev, the most difficult area is primarily Kherson, where the enemy managed to take the dilapidated bridge across the Dnieper and reach the suburbs. Currently, information is being received about the evacuation of the Kherson Regional State Administration. And by morning this situation is likely to remain uncertain.

In the Kherson region, the city of Henichesk (where the mayor announced communication with the NEW administration) and several other settlements came under the control of the occupiers. Also under enemy control is the Oleshkiv landfill and the crossing of the North Crimean canal (the launch of which they are already reporting). But there is an operation to unblock Tavria, so at 9 pm the city of Nova Kakhovka was recaptured, and the orcs did not manage to break through to Melitopol. At night, there is likely to be an accumulation of forces and means to dump enemies into the sea (best case scenario), or a slow push (realistic).

Russia has captured Snake Island several times. The territory of the island was shelled by artillery of the cruiser "Moscow", the patrol ship "Vasily Bykov" and aircraft. No surviving buildings remain on the island, but Marines and border guards continued to defend the island. They did not surrender and did not surrender to the attackers to the last. Eternal memory of the heroes.

In addition, the Russian occupiers fired on a Turkish ship, and Turkey is a member of NATO!

In the eastern direction, fighting continues along the entire line of contact. But this is a convenient and long-explored area, so the enemy did not achieve much success during the day. Our happiness, Vugledar too, in the area of the settlement Pishchevyk breakthrough failed, as well as forcing the river in the area of Stanytsia Luhanska. I don't think that after the day's repulse the Russians, together with the mobilized separatists, will recover quickly, so there will be no news until the morning except for sporadic shelling.

In fact, in this direction, our military has received the long-awaited command "Ib @ sh" and do so with all hatred for the enemy.

Mykhailo Vedmid, veteran, member of the Democratic Ax political council

On the subject of unreliability of information, here's an announcement from Ukraine's MinDef that includes info that they're still trying to retake the Gostomel' airfield.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497076946018078722

And here are Russian Grad's rolling through Novaya Kahovka, clearly not retaken.

Colonelcassad

Российские "Грады" в Новой Каховке @anna_news

t.me

 

[Steinmetz]

On the subject of unreliability of information, here's an announcement from Ukraine's MinDef that includes info that they're still trying to retake the Gostomel' airfield.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497076946018078722

And here are Russian Grad's rolling through Novaya Kahovka, clearly not retaken.

Colonelcassad

Российские "Грады" в Новой Каховке @anna_news

t.me

Indeed, and it looks like we're seeing more light on the complete situation. Russia is now making deep thrusts in all directions. Looks like they're in Vorzel too. Which Gostomel' airfield is in that vicinity.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497085609839579136

Downed Su-27 photos incoming.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497084107234369540

 

[STURM]

From.CNN.

An audio clip has emerged of what appears to be an exchange between Ukrainian soldiers on an island in the Black Sea and an officer of the Russian Navy.

All the soldiers — who were defending Snake Island — are reported to have been killed, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

"All border guards died heroically but did not give up. They will be awarded the title of Hero of Ukraine posthumously," Zelensky said.

At some point on Thursday, a Russian warship approached the island. According to the purported audio exchange, the Russian officer says: "This is a military warship. This is a Russian military warship. I suggest you lay down your weapons and surrender to avoid bloodshed and needless casualties. Otherwise, you will be bombed."

The alleged response from a Ukrainian soldier: "Russian warship, go f*** yourself.

Reports have a pair of Russian columns heading towards Kiev. The thing is, do they have enough manpower to seal off the city they'd want to avoid a protracted urban fight. Politically they can't do what rhetoric in Chechnya, seal off the city subject it to.ary/MLRS and airstrikes.

 

[Vivendi]

For those who ask: “Why does Ukraine matter? “
This is why Ukraine matters.

It is the second largest country by area in Europe by area and has a population
of over 40 million - more than Poland.

Ukraine ranks:
1st in Europe in proven recoverable reserves of uranium ores;
2nd place in Europe and 10th place in the world in terms of titanium ore reserves;
2nd place in the world in terms of explored reserves of manganese ores (2.3 billion tons, or 12% of the world's reserves);
2nd largest iron ore reserves in the world (30 billion tons);
2nd place in Europe in terms of mercury ore reserves;
3rd place in Europe (13th place in the world) in shale gas reserves (22 trillion cubic meters)
4th in the world by the total value of natural resources;
7th place in the world in coal reserves (33.9 billion tons)

Ukraine is an important agricultural country:

1st in Europe in terms of arable land area;
3rd place in the world by the area of black soil (25% of world's volume);
1st place in the world in exports of sunflower and sunflower oil;
2nd place in the world in barley production and 4th place in barley exports;
3rd largest producer and 4th largest exporter of corn in the world;
4th largest producer of potatoes in the world;
5th largest rye producer in the world;
5th place in the world in bee production (75,000 tons);
8th place in the world in wheat exports;
9th place in the world in the production of chicken eggs;
16th place in the world in cheese exports.

Ukraine can meet the food needs of 600 million people.

Ukraine is an important industrialised country:

1st in Europe in ammonia production;
Europe's 2nd’s and the world’s 4th largest natural gas pipeline system;
3rd largest in Europe and 8th largest in the world in terms of installed capacity of nuclear power plants;
3rd place in Europe and 11th in the world in terms of rail network length (21,700 km);
3rd place in the world (after the U.S. and France) in production of locators and locating equipment;
3rd largest iron exporter in the world
4th largest exporter of turbines for nuclear power plants in the world;
4th world's largest manufacturer of rocket launchers;
4th place in the world in clay exports
4th place in the world in titanium exports
8th place in the world in exports of ores and concentrates;
9th place in the world in exports of defence industry products;
10th largest steel producer in the world (32.4 million tons).

Ukraine matters. That is why its independence is important to the rest of the world.

Kenneth Carroll on LinkedIn: #food #people #europe #ukraine #ukrainecrisis #ukraineconflict | 1,599 comments

For those who ask: “Why does Ukraine matter? “ This is why Ukraine matters. It is the second largest country by area in Europe by area and has a… | 1,599 comments on LinkedIn

www.linkedin.com

In all the disinformation about "genocide", "chemical attacks", and "urgent threat from NATO", perhaps one should not forget that Ukraine is a country very rich in resources. Could this be part of the reason why Russia is now invading Ukraine?

 

[Feanor]

Melitopol' has apparently been taken with some sporadic fighting in the SBU building.

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Russian troops in Dymer.

Военный Осведомитель

ВС РФ зашли в Дымер в Киевской области. До Гостомеля от него 25 километров.

t.me

A Russian Tigr-SpN captured near Chernigov.

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Damage to airfields in Ivano-Frankovsk and Rovno. Also a bridge into Kiev has been destroyed.

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A Ukrainian Su-27 was shot down, here's fragments.

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There's unconfirmed info of a Ukrainian Tochka strike against Millerovo airfield.

WarGonzo

⚡️СРОЧНО⚡️ВСУ ударили Точкой-У по Миллерово⚡️ Речь идёт о военном аэродроме в Миллерово. Это Ростовская область. Есть раненые, информация по погибших уточняется. @wargonzo *наш проект существует исключительно на средства подписчиков, карта для помощи: 5469380092497022

t.me

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Ukrainian Grad battery set up in Kharkov, in the middle of a street.

Рыбарь

В Харькове развертываются украинские батареи РСЗО прямо в жилых кварталах. #Россия #Украина @rybar

t.me

 

[Vivendi]

This isn't entirely true. At this point if Ukrainian positions are getting hit by rebel artillery, I would expect Ukraine to return fire. In other words, it wouldn't necessarily stop.

So your are saying that surrounded by more than 150,000 Russian troops ready to attack, it would have been logical for Ukraine to fire shells into an area that just received thousands of Russian troops? As we now know, Putin decided he did not need further false flags or other "justifications" for attacking, but at the time I wrote my response Russia had not attacked yet and if Ukraine still believed at that time they could avoid an invasion, it seems to be to be prudent to not take actions that could have been used as excuse to launch an attack.

 

[Feanor]

Kenneth Carroll on LinkedIn: #food #people #europe #ukraine #ukrainecrisis #ukraineconflict | 1,599 comments

For those who ask: “Why does Ukraine matter? “ This is why Ukraine matters. It is the second largest country by area in Europe by area and has a… | 1,599 comments on LinkedIn

www.linkedin.com

In all the disinformation about "genocide", "chemical attacks", and "urgent threat from NATO", perhaps one should not forget that Ukraine is a country very rich in resources. Could this be part of the reason why Russia is now invading Ukraine?

That post isn't well informed and the numbers seem cherry picked.

For a better look, here's Ukraine's manufacturing output. Rocket launchers and NPP turbines notwithstanding. To compare with some other "industrial powerhouses" it's ~1/2 of Pakistan or ~1/3rd of Vietnam, and just behind Morocco.

Ukraine Manufacturing Output 1989-2022

Manufacturing refers to industries belonging to ISIC divisions 15-37. Value added is the net output of a sector after adding up all outputs and subtracting intermediate inputs. It is calculated without making deductions for depreciation of fabricated assets or depletion and degradation of...

www.macrotrends.net

.

Ukraine also doesn't have 40 million people living there. What exactly counts as population gets murky but even if you buy the official statistics, you only get that number by including Crimea and Donbass which aren't in any tangible way part of Ukraine. They don't pay taxes, and while they do have some trade with the rest of Ukraine, both are effectively a separate economic space. Ukraine also has the dubious distinction of having one of the fastest shrinking populations on earth. There's a reason Ukraine hasn't had a census in over two decades.

This isn't to say that Ukraine doesn't matter. But the stats as they are presented are highly questionable.

Ukraine does have considerable resources, but out of all countries to invade someone for resources I'd think Russia would be the last one. Russia's own resources are vast, and poorly catalogued. If it's resources Russia wants, they just have to invest (significantly smaller amounts then this invasion will cost) into more geological surveys and reconnaissance.

So your are saying that surrounded by more than 150,000 Russian troops ready to attack, it would have been logical for Ukraine to fire shells into an area that just received thousands of Russian troops? As we now know, Putin decided he did not need further false flags or other "justifications" for attacking, but at the time I wrote my response Russia had not attacked yet and if Ukraine still believed at that time they could avoid an invasion, it seems to be to be prudent to not take actions that could have been used as excuse to launch an attack.

Given the regular exchanges of fire in the area over many past years, yes. I'm not saying it's 100% the case, but it wouldn't surprise me if it turned out to be the case. Ukrainian troops on the front line are just that - on an actual front line. If they're taking fire, they're certainly going to return fire unless under some very strict orders. Throw in the presence of less then entirely disciplined volunteer formations and it becomes even likelier. You're thinking of this from the stand point of someone who has taken a step back and is assessing the situation as a whole. But troops under fire generally react to what is happening here and now.

 

[Vivendi]

Incredible conversation between an Ukrainian woman and Russian soldier invading Ukraine:

Chris Taylor on Twitter: "The full transcript is incredible. https://t.co/ra9ZkjRExl" / Twitter

 

[kato]

The last thing the Germans should do is increase funding for the Russian economy by approving Nord Stream 2.

BASF / Wintershall, i.e. the German company behind it, has already announced they will be expecting compensation for the certification blocking.

So far only petty change is being mentioned, but this could go a lot higher especially if their investment in and expected returns from Severneftegazprom are considered. And based on past similar cases, including ones that involved Wintershall, we'll likely be talking full compensation and potential figures of several dozen billion Euro. Might take a while though.

There's a good reason why the German government has been avoiding this kind of interference so far despite the rather extreme pressure from the Americans.

 

[Vivendi]

Head of UK MI6 about the role US and UK intelligence communities played:

US and UK intelligence communities uncovered Putin’s plans for Ukraine. We exposed his attempts to engineer ‘false flag’, fake attacks to justify his invasion. We revealed his plans to assassinate Ukrainian leaders and senior officials.

This attack was long planned, unprovoked, cruel aggression. No amount of Russian disinformation will now disguise that fact from the international community.

Richard Moore on Twitter: "Slava Ukraina! US and UK intelligence communities uncovered Putin’s plans for Ukraine. We exposed his attempts to engineer ‘false flag’, fake attacks to justify his invasion. We revealed his plans to assassinate Ukrainian leaders and senior officials." / Twitter

 

[Feanor]

There's a short video from Russian news with 16 Ukrainian border guards soldiers that surrendered to Russia. The claim is that they were forgotten by their command. A couple of the individuals interviewed said negative things about the current Ukrainian government. However the video is extremely short and heavily edited so it's unclear how indicative the few phrases quoted actually are.

Крымский канал

Появилось видео о прибытии украинских пограничников в Крым и их отказе служить Киеву. // Крымский канал

t.me

A Ukrainian BTR-4 set up inside an apartment yard in Kharkov. The vehicle may be disabled, the person videotaping states that the tires have no air in them.

Уголок Ситха

ХАРЬКОВ. утро. 25 февраля БТР ВСУ во дворе. в жилой постройке укрывается мирняком

t.me

Russian Tigr-M and technicals inside Melitopol', and footage from a building across the street of Russian troops at the SBU building in Melitopol'.

Dambiev

Мелитополь. Зачистка здания СБУ. 25 февраля 2022 года.

t.me