Indonesian Aero News

[Ahmad]

It is very clear that it is F 15 EX since it is stated directly during Rapim and we can hear the General saying it directly and clearly in Youtube (CNN/Kompas). Antara I think get work overload and use Google Translate instead. Just see the Indonesian version (original), it is because Antara use English translator while the actual work is done by journalist who make the Indonesian version.

 

[Ahmad]

 

[Ananda]

is also very unlikely, actually impossible that Indonesia will get soon the F-15EX, iF the US allows Indonesia to buy this advanced and expensive aircraft. The first flight of the F-15EX was just recently, and even the USAF have to wait until 2023 to get the last of the first 8 ordered.

Which way even many in Indonesian forums already very beef up on EX version, I always have a question on time table that Prabowo's claim will be. Now when Prabowo's meet US Defence Secretary then follow by "Minister of everything" meeting in white House with Trump, it's part of negotiations on what US can provide as compensation for Indonesia dropped Su-35.

Both in Media claim that US willing to provide latest version of Gen 4.5 in their inventory. I still believe with F-16V or F-18E/F Blk3. As simply the line of production are on going and Indonesia (like with AH-64E) can piggy back on existing US batch. EX is new version where the production line just begin. Like you say, I also don't believe Indonesia can take early batch from USAF. Thus if the time line that Prabowo's claim is true, I don't think it will be from EX production line.

Now the Antara article claim of used F-15 can be due to misinterpreting. However I also still have difficulty to believe if it's EX version. US already give latest version of Apache, thus theoriticaly they also can give latest version of their 4.5 Gen fighters like EX. Still, if that come from EX production line, I don't think it will be meet the time frame of Prabowo's claim.

If it's F-15, within that time frame. The most probable that happen is for US take from USAF F-15E inventory and refurbished it with latest F-15E technology. So probable it's close to EX, but not EX. Just like the F-16 52id that's close to Blk 52 but not Blk 52.

MinDef need to close the F-5 chapter soon. It's already 5 years late after F-5 retirement. Su-35 saga need to be closed soon, that's why I do see where Prabowo's claim on 2021/22 timeframe coming from. It's Political need to close the chapter soon. Again with that timeframe, I do doubt it's EX version. Unless the timeframe that Prabowo's claim is mistaken. So either TNI-AU chief mistaken the claim or Prabowo's one that mistaken.

After all, within this Administration, it's not first time high rangking official even to minister level make error in claim.

 

[Ahmad]

One last thing, USAF's $1,2 billion contract is covering the delivery of the first lot of eight aircraft.
If RI is really planning to order 15 F-15EX, the value of the contract will certainly double, there is no way the US will sell this aircraft to Indonesia for a lower price than to its own airforce. Besides that TNI-AU has to start from zero, it has never operated the F-15 before.

The first order will be 8-12, it is also indirectly stated, while 15 planes are their overall plan, while the total budget is 1.6 billion USD according to Lembaga Keris (Alman said it also include other fighter program). As usual, we are not likely going to buy all 15 planes directly, step by step bro. Remember Su 27/30 acquisition ????

I still believe 8 planes are for Jokowi second period while after that depend on new government. Any way, Air Force can change previous plan from buying F16 V to Rafale as easy as like that. This is why plan is a plan, it can be reversed, even that Armed Force general admit that the implementation is dinamic if you read his statement carefully.

The thing that we know there is revelation from Lembaga Keris that the budget is intended for replacing F 5 squadron. They reveal the document and I think we all can see it as well from the original source, it is open for public anyway.

Despite all of that, this last paragraph will be my take on the speculation and the planning from Armed Force:

Armed Force doesnt have responsibility on the financing, their duty just to give their plan without thinking about how to finance it, what is current state of our economy, what is our industry and economic long term strategy, and what is the need of our defense industry. It is Finance Ministry, Bappenas, Minister of Defense, Ministry of Industry, Ministry of Research, and Presiden who will decide. I still believe those people are reasonable people and has long term and more holistic vision about how to utilize our budget maximally to reach our strategic long term planning.

https://www.bappenas.go.id/id/data-dan-informasi-utama/dokumen-perencanaan-dan-pelaksanaan/dokumen-rencana-pembangunan-nasional/rpjp-2005-2025/rpjpn-2005-2025/

 

[Ananda]

Indonesia Could Be First Non-USAF Customer for F-15EX | Air & Space Forces Magazine

Indonesia plans to buy the Boeing F-15EX, expecting to take delivery by 2022, according to press reports from Jakarta.

www.airforcemag.com

Well, this article put source from Boeing that even not confirming Indonesia will got F-15 EX, but stating that F-15 EX will be suitable for Indonesia need. The source also say that future F-15 line will only be F-15EX. Still the way I see it, eventough it's call EX, but there still will be difference for each Export customers. This as it also implied toward previous F-15 export practice will be maintain except the naming.

On the other hand, Boeing source also stated that most of present line of F-15EX are for USAF order. Thus if Prabowo's time line correct, in my opinion it can only mean two things:
1. It's coming from current F-15E line (perhaps last batch), but as Boeing source put it will call EX also for export, or
2. Somehow both Prabowo's and Luhut manage to get EX from USAF line.

If the 2nd that's turn out to be the source, then I do have to congratulate both of them on their diplomatic skills.

Anyway just like Dassault before that talk about Rafale for Indonesia in media, now Boeing source begin to hint that also. Seems there's enough substance to say more serious negotiations do happen between Indonesian MinDef with both Boeing and Dasault.

Let's see what off set projects that Boeing and Dasault will give to Indonesian industries.

 

[chiphocks]

if US agreed to sell the F15EX to us, why TNI still want to buy Rafale??
this planes is to replace the F5, but why 2 types??
is TNI have another purpose to buy these Rafale?

 

[Ananda]

Why TNI wants several Fighters types instead simplification of types operating for commonality ? This has been talk on so many times on Indonesian Thread on this forum. You can look on tens of pages back.

To simplify:

1. TNI just like any bureaucracy in Indonesia, like "Projects". Thus procurement of several types can provide several "Projects". That's why from every services in TNI getting them for simplification of assets type is only "good" in concept, but hard to implement. Why Army and Marines have difficulty to have similar type of land vehicles ? Why Army and Air Force can't agree on type of helicopters ? Well that's from cynical point of view,

2. From Political point of view, TNI always have thinking of not dependent on one suppliers. Multiple suppliers from this thinking point of view will spreading their assets 'basket', which in turn provide 'derisking' of potential problem from one supplier.

3. From Operational point of view, there's difference capabilities of F-15EX and Rafale. In theory as F-15EX can have bigger capacities on Missiles or Bombs, they can used to support Rafale or F-16 during initial incursion. Also during Air Superiority mission, with the amount of missile that F-15EX can bring, they can provide volley of missile toward incoming opposition Fighters, while Rafale and F-16 taking secondary attack.

So you can take a pick, whether from Cynical point of view, Political point of view, or Operational point of view. For me personally, all three of them having similar influence.

TNI already knows what the benefits of Assets simplification. However so far the turn out is still several type of Assets being procured. There's a drive for that to reduce problems on Logistics, but on the other hand the thinking of diversification still exists.

 

[chiphocks]

Why TNI wants several Fighters types instead simplification of types operating for commonality ? This has been talk on so many times on Indonesian Thread on this forum. You can look on tens of pages back.

To simplify:

1. TNI just like any bureaucracy in Indonesia, like "Projects". Thus procurement of several types can provide several "Projects". That's why from every services in TNI getting them for simplification of assets type is only "good" in concept, but hard to implement. Why Army and Marines have difficulty to have similar type of land vehicles ? Why Army and Air Force can't agree on type of helicopters ? Well that's from cynical point of view,

2. From Political point of view, TNI always have thinking of not dependent on one suppliers. Multiple suppliers from this thinking point of view will spreading their assets 'basket', which in turn provide 'derisking' of potential problem from one supplier.

3. From Operational point of view, there's difference capabilities of F-15EX and Rafale. In theory as F-15EX can have bigger capacities on Missiles or Bombs, they can used to support Rafale or F-16 during initial incursion. Also during Air Superiority mission, with the amount of missile that F-15EX can bring, they can provide volley of missile toward incoming opposition Fighters, while Rafale and F-16 taking secondary attack.

So you can take a pick, whether from Cynical point of view, Political point of view, or Operational point of view. For me personally, all three of them having similar influence.

TNI already knows what the benefits of Assets simplification. However so far the turn out is still several type of Assets being procured. There's a drive for that to reduce problems on Logistics, but on the other hand the thinking of diversification still exists.

sound like TNI AU is preparing to take out the sukhoi's....
we already have su30 for 2 engine multirole airplane, no need another one, and its too soon....
i think its better to use Rafale money for missiles, logistics, or simply pay the F15EX

 

[Def Leppard]

if US agreed to sell the F15EX to us, why TNI still want to buy Rafale??
this planes is to replace the F5, but why 2 types??
is TNI have another purpose to buy these Rafale?

My take would be like this : try to understand it from US and non-US fighters (Russian) point of view. We want to keep the policy to have 2 different sources, but because of CAATSA we can't buy from Russian anymore. So to fill up non-US quota, we change the source from Russia to Europe, in this case it's Rafale.

So the US + non-US couple for Indonesian Air Force basically switching from US + Russia to US + France/Europe.

Also about F-15EX, again this is my take, I think we'll never see any new F-16 jets. So we basically upgrade our existing inventory through MLU, and then slowly phase them out. F-15EX fleet is replacing/continuing our F-16 fleet as the only US fighters in Indonesian Air Force.

Anyway, it'd be interesting to see the USAF plan that they might produce a brand new 4.5 gen fighter. This will be better than both F-15EX and F-16V.

 

[Ananda]

Both of you have points that should be considered. If they're going to take F-15EX and Rafale, why should Flankers still being kept. It will create logistical nightmare if they have to maintain F-15, F-16, Flankers, Rafale, Hawk, TA-50 and Tucano. 7 type in Inventory will be a nightmare logistically even for Large AF standard.

However in same time considering the situation of Fighters inventory and the need for quantity, I do see on why they will try to upgrade existing Fighters along side new procurement. Ideally if they want to go with US/French combination, they should get rid or rundown both Flankers and Hawk. Perhaps they can sell those Flankers to Vietnam, and use the fund that can be save on maintaining Flankers to upgrade all existing F-16 or getting new LCA in form of FA-50.

Personally I also don't see why decision on taking F-15EX, asside some prestigious show case (which still embedded in mind of MinDef and TNI thinking). They should go with F-16V and Rafale. US offer of F-16V actually not because they don't want to offer more capable fighters (as many Indonesian forumers accuse), however more to logical steps considering TNI-AU situation. However seems now US also understand, logical thinking is not always the main driver for Indonesian MinDef.

Thus back to the choices of F-15EX and Rafale, and the law that demand Indonesian Industry participation on defense procurement. Let's see how far Boeing and Dasault off set deals will cover for work share with Indonesian Industries.

F-15EX fleet is replacing/continuing our F-16 fleet as the only US fighters in Indonesian Air Force.

Don't be surprised if Dasault come with offer for Indonesia to get out from KFX/IFX program with Korea. They will offer instead plan to build 3 sq of IFX, why don't you build 3 sq of Rafale on top the 36 that have order. Similar deal as what Brazil got with SAAB, can be part of the deal that Dasault can offer. If that happen, it could be Rafale that's going to replace existing F-16 in future.
Is it going to be that on the offer ? Can't say that now, but French media already speculating that. So will have to see.

One thing for sure, IFX is not own by DI and it's basically as I have mentioned so many times in this forum, is an under license deal between DI with KAI. Thus if DI got under license agreement with Dasault, for the purpose of their learning curve, it is going to give the same effect. IFX main IP rights is belong to KAI (don't have any illusion that DI will have main IP rights for IFX). In fact what Embrear got from SAAB for Gripen NG Under License deal is better than What DI have on IFX. For one thing, Embrear already have Rights to sell Gripen NG for South America market, while DI still not having rights to export IFX anywhere.

In conclusion, what off set deals that will be offer by Boeing or Dasault, will play on final decision on which Aircraft that can have more future with Indonesian AF. After all the law for off set works on Indonesian Industries will still going to take part.

 

[Ananda]

So basically the AF spokesman still saying that the definitive choice of Fighters still being on "assessment studies" with MinDef..the only type of Aircraft that he saying are for C-130J, as for tankers he's talking MRTT but not saying definitive as Airbus MRTT.

Could this be still F-15E/EX and Rafale ? Or could it only be only Rafale ? Or back to F-16V ?. One thing that I'm quite certain, when he talk the term of "Penyelarasan" it usually also involved final calculation with Bapenas and Ministry of Finance of Financing packages options and calculation on foreign credit line leverage toward multiyears overall national budget exposure.

So it's still possible instead two type of fighters, in the end only one type. In short this's the stage that not only taking consideration of technical and support calculation, but also overall affordability toward multiyears coverage ratio.

Politically seems this administration already committing on new procurement projects for TNI-AU. The way on publicity conducted, create stronger "smell" then during Su-35 saga. Still this's Indonesia, anything still can happen untill the assets being paid, constructed, and deliver.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

So annoying, at the moments he wants to tell something important, the quality of the connection drops so much that you cant hear anything.

Could this be still F-15E/EX and Rafale ? Or could it only be only Rafale ? Or back to F-16V ?

The Oracle also often ask similar questions to himself on Twitter... :-D

Politically seems this administration already committing on new procurement projects for TNI-AU. The way on publicity conducted, create stronger "smell" then during Su-35 saga. Still this's Indonesia, anything still can happen untill the assets being paid, constructed, and deliver.

This is what we indeed always have to keep in mind.
The contract was already signed for the 11 Su-35, but....

Besides that the US Defense Security Cooperation Agency hasn't delivered yet a required certification to notify the Congress of a possible sale of F-16s, F-15s or C-130s, while in the past there was suddenly a notification of a possible sale of eight MV-22Bs.

Btw, now we are talking about the MV-22B, it is not yet officially on the list for TNI-AD, right?

 

[Ananda]

Btw, now we are talking about the MV-22B, it is not yet officially on the list for TNI-AD, right?

Besides last year DCSA paper and some leak of documentation from Head of Army meeting with US representative (I believe it has been uploaded in Indonesian thread), no other official yet. However as the video shows, they're now in final assessment stage. In my understanding (base what Bapenas and Ministry of Finance process), they're now calculating overall foreign leverage exposure as multiyears projection.

My suspect, there're going to prioritize what assets can be Finance from foreign credit, and how much that can be covered from domestic financing. I do think some adjustments on assets will be done. Like previous talk from Rapim on 15 C130-J, I suspect they are going to adjust the number. This because they're open to further refurbished existing assets. So there's probability they'll choose to reduce the new procurement numbers and choose to refurbished existing C-130H.

It's all depends on final calculation. From calculation of speculation USD 21 bio foreign credit line that's being talked, it is for overall TNI services and not just TNI-AU. Thus some inter service trade off can be happen. That's why I said in previous post, it's not impossible that the type of Fighters being procured can be reduced only to one type instead of two.

 

[ChestnutTree]

Could this be still F-15E/EX and Rafale ? Or could it only be only Rafale ? Or back to F-16V ?. One thing that I'm quite certain, when he talk the term of "Penyelarasan" it usually also involved final calculation with Bapenas and Ministry of Finance of Financing packages options and calculation on foreign credit line leverage toward multiyears overall national budget exposure.

CMIIW but to my understanding Boeing has an advantage over Dassault when it comes to financing and packages.

Boeing Defense has been known to do bulk buys with its other products that when combined together often lowers the overall cost of the items being procured. Seeing as Dassault can't offer anything in terms of rotorcraft, Tankers, AWACS, and MPA's; PTDI's history of manufacturing certain parts for Boeing aircraft along with GMF AeroAsia's history of being a Boeing MRO, Bapenas and the Ministry of Finance might find Boeing's offer to be much more tempting than that of Dassault's.

But again, it's Indonesia so we would have to see.

 

[swerve]

Actually, Dassault can offer MPAs. Its MPAs are used by various coast guards including that of Japan, & the French navy, & are continuing to be developed & produced.

Falcon 900 MPA “Maritime Patrol Aircraft”
Falcon 2000 MRA (Maritime Multi-Role Aircraft)

They're much smaller than a P-8 or the Kawasaki P-1, but there's a niche for them.

The Atlantique is no longer offered, AFAIK, but that was also a Dassault product.

 

[Ananda]

Boeing Defense has been known to do bulk buys with its other products that when combined together often lowers the overall cost of the items being procured. Seeing as Dassault can't offer anything in terms of rotorcraft, Tankers, AWACS, and MPA's; PTDI's history of manufacturing certain parts for Boeing aircraft along with GMF AeroAsia's history of being a Boeing MRO, Bapenas and the Ministry of Finance might find Boeing's offer to be much more tempting than that of Dassault's.

The problem is, what're MinDef and TNI-AU really aim for their attention on F-15EX and Rafale for ? Up to mid 2020 the plan still Su-35 and F-16V. With F-16 legacy in Inventory, the procurement of F-16V seems aim to be the Back Bone of TNI-AU operations and Patrol/ Interdiction duties. This Shown by their relative larger population in overall Inventory. While the existing Flankers plus Su-35 seems going to be aim for more 'strategics' duties such deep penetration and area air supremacy roles. Off course it's also will be related with F-16 more 'economics' cost to operate and maintain.

Thus what the aim for F-15EX and Rafale ? On the onsight seems F-15EX will replace the role of Flankers, and Rafale seems will take over F-16 role. If that's the case, then Rafale life time maintenance and operating costs has to be more affordable for TNI-AU. In theory this can only happen if the overall population of Rafale in Inventory will be substantial enough, plus capabilities for parts manufacturing, Assembling, and total MRO locally including upgrading.

Will that be the aim ? Will that be what the overall off set being discussed and offer by Dasault ? Will that means that the infrastructure being prepared in DI for IFX program switch to Rafale ? Will that means Indonesia definitive left KFX/IFX program and focus on Rafale to ensure population building over the years up to next decade ?

How this going to be related with Defend ID plan as the Holding Company for 'Involvement on Defense Global Chain' ? Boeing in paper will provide more opportunities as Global Supply Chain Partner compared to Dasault. That's related with what your post. However could Dasault offer better workshare ? Could French over including support technology including workshare on avionics with LEN and Missile Technology with Pindad ? In sense French offer overall packages on defense Technology in aerospace and perhaps Naval ? French knows they need to go more, if they are facing US competition.

After all if F-15EX being aim as Flankers replacement in TNI-AU inventory, then the numbers will be limited, as they're not going to be the back bone. Will Boeing going to offer enough work share involvement on limited number of procurement ?

All of this haven't clear yet. We can always back to 'cynical' part of my previous post before, that F-15EX and Rafale being choose as part of the need of 'multiple projects'.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

The problem is, what're MinDef and TNI-AU really aim for their attention on F-15EX and Rafale for ? Up to mid 2020 the plan still Su-35 and F-16V. With F-16 legacy in Inventory, the procurement of F-16V seems aim to be the Back Bone of TNI-AU operations and Patrol/ Interdiction duties. This Shown by their relative larger population in overall Inventory. While the existing Flankers plus Su-35 seems going to be aim for more 'strategics' duties such deep penetration and area air supremacy roles. Off course it's also will be related with F-16 more 'economics' cost to operate and maintain.

Thus what the aim for F-15EX and Rafale ? On the onsight seems F-15EX will replace the role of Flankers, and Rafale seems will take over F-16 role. If that's the case, then Rafale life time maintenance and operating costs has to be more affordable for TNI-AU. In theory this can only happen if the overall population of Rafale in Inventory will be substantial enough, plus capabilities for parts manufacturing, Assembling, and total MRO locally including upgrading.

Will that be the aim ? Will that be what the overall off set being discussed and offer by Dasault ? Will that means that the infrastructure being prepared in DI for IFX program switch to Rafale ? Will that means Indonesia definitive left KFX/IFX program and focus on Rafale to ensure population building over the years up to next decade ?

How this going to be related with Defend ID plan as the Holding Company for 'Involvement on Defense Global Chain' ? Boeing in paper will provide more opportunities as Global Supply Chain Partner compared to Dasault. That's related with what your post. However could Dasault offer better workshare ? Could French over including support technology including workshare on avionics with LEN and Missile Technology with Pindad ? In sense French offer overall packages on defense Technology in aerospace and perhaps Naval ? French knows they need to go more, if they are facing US competition.

After all if F-15EX being aim as Flankers replacement in TNI-AU inventory, then the numbers will be limited, as they're not going to be the back bone. Will Boeing going to offer enough work share involvement on limited number of procurement ?

All of this haven't clear yet. We can always back to 'cynical' part of my previous post before, that F-15EX and Rafale being choose as part of the need of 'multiple projects'.

I also do not completely understand. What is the problem to order more F-16s? Indonesia doesnt need to order the F-15 to please the americans, the F-16 is their product too.
And if the government choose the Rafale as a Su-35 alternative, choosing also the F-15EX is actually double, both expensive twin-engine aircrafts. Even if Indonesia feel pressed to order the F-15 in order to help Boeing in this time of crisis, then it is better to order the P-8 or 737 AEW/E-7, after all the 737-2X9 Surveiller can not fly forever.


It is unclear which type(s) of jetfighter the Indonesian Airforce plan to upgrade/give a MLU. It doesnt make sense to upgrade the Hawk Mk 209. It is maybe the cheapest fighter in Indonesian fleet to operate, but it makes no chance above the Natuna Sea. Even if 8 Hawk Mk.209s confront a single simple J-11/Su-27SK, the J-11 will fart them out of the sky in no time. Also the range of the Hawks are that limited, armed Hawks departing from Supadio AFB in Pontianak, have to return directly at the moment they reach Pulau Natuna.
They are also not really useful to fight rebels in the rainforest. The EMB-314 and armed helicopters are more suitable for it.

 

[Ananda]

also do not completely understand. What is the problem to order more F-16s? Indonesia doesnt need to order the F-15 to please the americans, the F-16 is their product too.

I think the choices of F-15EX is surprise to many "Defense Analyst" in Indonesia also. I do sense they are also asking the similar question on what's the purpose or what's the Air Defense architecture that'll be build for near future.

In Paper it's showing some logics on more Ground Defense Radar coverage (there's still many Radars installation that originate in 70's to replace and some more to cover the Surveillance Gap), AEW Planes, More Transport, and some Multi Role Transport and Tankers.

However omitting F-16V raise question. Indonesia already investing on capabilities to further doing Modifications on the Legacy F-16. I also heard some plan being discussed, on top adding couple more Sq of new F-16V, also further works on F-16 52id and getting ex Norway or USAF F-16 some for spare parts and some being refurbished for adding 2-3 operational Sq. Basically doing the similar thing with Pakistan toward Mirage V in their inventory.

This's done in order to get most Economics value from standardize the inventory, plus adding domestic capabilities for maintenance and upgrade.

So, why Rafale or F-15EX ? I guess we have to see what the complete deals that's being offered. One thing for sure, there's increasing aknowledgement within MinDef and TNI on potential external threat. This's from what I heard from my colleagues in Bapenas, increase importance for advancing Defense Development.

Plus from 'cynical' side of me, Jokowi's need to shown he's care with TNI as much as Police

 

[swerve]

What the Pakistanis have done with the Mirage III & V has impressed me. It shows what determination, & the availability of relatively low paid skilled workers (or setting out to acquire the skills), can do. It becomes worth cannibalising old airframes, & scouring the world for stocks of parts when a type is retired.

Oh, & their upgrades have looked sensible, too. Take into account the basic capabilities of the aircraft, don't try to fit a V-8 into a Mini, & don't try to over-upgrade old airframes or spend a lot on something with not much life left (see aborted Indian Jaguar engine upgrade).

 

[Ananda]

What the Pakistanis have done with the Mirage III & V has impressed me. It shows what determination, & the availability of relatively low paid skilled workers (or setting out to acquire the skills), can do. It becomes worth cannibalising old airframes, & scouring the world for stocks of parts when a type is retired.

I do believe in some way, we also have to give aknowledgement to the ability of Iranian to keep those 70's Shah era F-5 flying and modified them (even though they call it completely new Fighters). This is where Turkey and ROK also doing with their F-16, eventough still having support from LM. For Indonesia, with limited budget especially on maintenance and upgrade, sticking with one type that you already have and working on to do complete overhaul and modifications work, will be economical way to do as what Pakistan done with their Mirage. Granted those Mirage will in the end seems being replace by JF-17, but it gives times for Pakistan AF to maintain their number until enough replacement can be procured.

F-16 now have numerous available air frames and parts that either can be used for maintenance or refurbishment purpose. This at first I thought what Indonesian AF and MinDef will aim, as ecomics way while buying time and preparing fund for later replacement. This if MinDef is seriously considering build up strength within limitations of budget. Some 'Local Analyst' scorned the idea, perhaps because many of those 'Analyst' basically also sales representative or have Political backers for getting new projects.

They don't see what Iran or Pakistan do in taking limited resources but also in the push the keep maintain reasonable Force structure. Now with this idea of F-15EX and Rafale keep my self thinking, where their (MinDef and Administration) really aiming ? Even with the talks of USD 20+ bio (or some in Indonesian forums and media boasting up to USD 30 bio) Financing being prepared which'll be stretch on multiyears budget, I also wonder if it's include life time cost calculation

What TNI have weakness so far is preparing budget for maintenance and upgrade works (due to nature of Indonesian practice of multiple projects) consistently. If they're including the work not only in procurement but also to refurbished and upgrade existing assets (as they say in media), then the fund available for new procurement actually is not that big. Thus why with expensive procurement projects of F-15EX and Rafale ? Remember those funds is for whole TNI services and not just AF.

I suspect there's other calculation (could be Political) or other potential Investment trade off deals to be considered. Whatever it is, we have to wait until more information come out.