Indonesian Aero News

[Ahmad]

PTDI collaboration with Bell for Bell 412 helicopter production. It is from latest PTDI official press released in 2021.

"Besides, we have another collaboration project with Airbus Helicopters for various kinds of helicopters and Bell Textron Inc. in producing the tail boom, door assembly, door post, pylon and ducts for the Bell 412 and Huey II helicopters. Other than that, PTDI and Bell Textron Inc. are having another intense collaboration to do joint sales & marketing for the Bell 412EPI, customization, as well as maintenance."

PT. Dirgantara Indonesia (Persero)

www.indonesian-aerospace.com

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

PTDI collaboration with Bell for Bell 412 helicopter production. It is from latest PTDI official press released in 2021.

"Besides, we have another collaboration project with Airbus Helicopters for various kinds of helicopters and Bell Textron Inc. in producing the tail boom, door assembly, door post, pylon and ducts for the Bell 412 and Huey II helicopters. Other than that, PTDI and Bell Textron Inc. are having another intense collaboration to do joint sales & marketing for the Bell 412EPI, customization, as well as maintenance."

PT. Dirgantara Indonesia (Persero)

www.indonesian-aerospace.com

Thank you for sharing IPTN's first press-release of 2021!

"Besides, we have another collaboration project with Airbus Helicopters for various kinds of helicopters and Bell Textron Inc. in producing the tail boom, door assembly, door post, pylon and ducts for the Bell 412 and Huey II helicopters. "

You can interpret this sentence in three ways:
1. IPTN produces the tail boom, door assembly, door post, pylon and ducts for both Bell and Eurocopter.
2. IPTN produces the tail boom, door assembly, door post, pylon and ducts for the Bell helicopters.
3. IPTN produces the tail boom, door assembly, door post, pylon voor Eurocopter and ducts for the Bell 412 and Huey II helicopters

"Other than that, PTDI and Bell Textron Inc. are having another intense collaboration to do joint sales & marketing for the Bell 412EPI, customization, as well as maintenance."

This is already for many years.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

A very interesting video of the earliest days of AURI/TNI-AU.
Sadly without sound. On the Mitsubishi Ki-51 we can see the first roundel in use between 1945-1949.

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=738888047032825

 

[Ananda]

https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=248850310029311&id=107396107508066

From MinDef Defense Potential Directorate Facebook page. This's the Directorate within Indonesian MinDef that handle defense planning, including acquisition projects. The Dasault executive during interview with French TV last month saying that their team will plan to come to Jakarta for further discussion (and according to them) finalising Rafale deals. The discussion being postpone due to COVID situation before.

Perhaps because they already got vaccination (I know most of high ranking public official in Indonesia already got it with Health Care workers and Armed Forces and Security personal), also the Dasault team probably already got it also. Anyway this particular MinDef Facebook page seems want to shown they're serious with Dasault. Just wondering if all calculation on support Rafale has been done. Dasault ToT offer from what I gather mostly on parts manufacturing and software access and MRO capabilities. This according to Dasault will reduce the cost to maintain Rafale within Indonesian Air Force and Industrial infrastructure.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

It seems that there was some rapat/meeting of some people of Mindef/TNI.

TNI-Polri Gelar Rapim, Bahas Sinergitas, Covid-19 Hingga Pemulihan Ekonomi

TNI-Polri hari ini menggelar Rapat Pimpinan (Rapim) 2021, di Gedung Rupatama, Mabes Polri, Jakarta Selatan. Kegiatan tersebut akan membahas beberapa agenda nasional...

nasional.sindonews.com

https://www.facebook.com/181276675314017/posts/3401095553332097

Hingga 2024, TNI AU Incar Rafale, F-15, dan Hercules C-130J |Republika Online

Perwakilan Dassault Aviation sudah bertemu Dirjen Pothan Kemenhan di Jakarta.

m.republika.co.id

15 C-130J and 2 MRTT sounds cool, but....you know lah, its better to observe and wait what will happen.
After all its just on the wishlist.

 

[Ananda]

If those information is the pattern that going to be taken, then it's in line with information that I got from Bapenas and Ministry of Finance, as I've put before. Whatever the fighters package MinDef going to take, has to be base/modified from two packages that already being calculate before.

Thus the F-15 package taking over the calculation for Su-35 package, and Rafale taking over the calculation for F-16V package. Off course it's also means the previous calculation need to be modified as the new proposed Fighters will be more expensive then previous ones that have been calculate.

One of interesting item is the program to refurbished all existing Fighters. There's already program to refurbished existing F-16 into Blk 50+ equivalent. However if this information really the one they are pursuing, means TNI-AU also aim to refurbished Hawk 200 (instead replacing them with new LIFT/LCA). Also how they're going to move with refurbishing Flankers will be interesting to be seen, as what package and with whom they're going to pursue. Still seems it means MinDef choose to go with refurbishing existing Fighters, rather then found second hand Fighters.

So even if LM loosing out to Boeing and Dasault for new Fighters package, they still got business from refurbishing F-16 program and C-130J. In the end it's also need to be seen what offset packages that Boeing, Dasault and LM will give. The Law says that has to be off set for ToT program. Rosoboron didn't want to give ToT offset for Su-35, and choose for counter trade Despite all the talk of CAATSA as the cause for Indonesia moving away from Su-35, however actually the counter trade deals is the main problem. It's taking too long to formulate, and raise questions on nepotism on trade deals.

Anyway this is still wish list, we know in early last year the wish list that being talk in Parliament were still Su-35 and F-16V. Now they're changing that to F-15 and Rafale. Let's see how it's progressing.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Selain itu, mereka juga melakukan pengadaan pesawat tempur dan angkut, seperti 36 unit Dassault Rafale multi role combat aircraft (MRCA), 15 unit F-15EX, 15 unit Hercules C-130J, hingga dua unit multi role tanker transport (MRTT) tanker.

This is just a wish list, the airforce plan/want/need this stuff, but it is totally unrealistic to think that even 50% of this list become realitly.
It seems that the budget for the fighter procurement is around $1,6 billion, not enough for a full squadron of Rafales, let alone 36 Rafales or 15 F-15EX. With such a budget its better to order just one full squadron of F-16V Block 72s.
I also dont see a GOOD reason to suddenly switch to the F-15. Yes it has similar engines with the F-16, but anything else is different. It is much more expensive in acquisition, maintenance, logistics and operation compared to the F-16. It is even questionable if the US is willing to sell such an advanced fighter to a country like Indonesia, even the USAF hasnt received the F-15X/EX yet. In July 2020, the U.S. Defense Department ordered eight fighters over three years for $1,2 billion. And that price is for their own airforce, so it is just impossible that Indonesia can get 15 brandnew F-15EXs for just $1,6 billion, even without sustainment package.

And then there have to be the funds for the refurbishment and upgrading the older fighters in our fleet. (Is there even an upgradepackage for the Hawk Mk109/209?) And also for the 15 (!) C-130Js and 2 MRTTs.... i dont know where that money has to come from.

With an administration that uses every reason and excuse to spend less on defence and more on infrastructure projects to attract chin...i mean foreign investors, it is in my opinion quite unlikeable that more than 25% of the list above will be ordered (and not later cancelled!) before 2025.

 

[Ananda]

seems that the budget for the fighter procurement is around $1,6 billion, not enough for a full squadron of Rafales, let alone 36 Rafales or 15 F-15EX. With such a budget its better to order just one full squadron of F-16V Block 72s.

Yes, if it's only USD 1.6 bio it will not be enough. Like I say before, Bapenas already calculate two packages for 1 sq Su-35 and 2 sq F-16V. Now MinDef going to change the packages for 1 sq F-15 and 2 sq Rafale. Whether this USD 1.6 bio is from package of Su-35, which now seems MinDef want to switch for F-15, or it's for initial payment on this year, that's still not clear.

I can only say from my understanding on how Bapenas and Ministry of Finance work. They calculate the overall Financing of packages first, then use multiyears budget Financing method (including using foreign credit line) in order to calculate if still meet the leverage ratio threshold. Thus I don't know whether this USD 1.6 bio is for calculation of previous Su-35 package or part of annual payment Financing method.

What's not clear yet is whether the changes of the packages already done and pass Bapenas or still in submission toward both Finance and Bapenas. If it's already through both of them, then the calculation already being secured. However if not, then there's still long way to go.

With an administration that uses every reason and excuse to spend less on defence and more on infrastructure projects

Seems for Infrastructure they're now switching the financing method through this Sovereign Wealth Fund method. In sense they will sell infrastructure projects (both existing and on the progress ones) to Investors co-op under this fund. This's after the Leverage ratio from SOE's Infrastructure already balloon, which means they're now need to sell their projects in order for them to move to other new ones.

I'm more interested with this picture below from KRIS FB. Seems this shown the progress of that C-705 copy/reverse engineering project.

 

[Ahmad]

I hope all of our Hawk can use this InfoGlobal made avionics during the refurbished and upgrade program. They have used InfoGlobal avionics before. It will be great if it can also be used for possible SU 27/30 refurbished/upgrade program.



Picture information

Indonesian defense company, PT Info Global, proposes its avionics product for Indonesian KFX fighter version (IFX) during Indo Defense Event in 2016. Info Global avionics has been used for several Indonesian planes like Hawk 100/200, Boeing 737-200, Hercules C-130, KT-1B, and NC 212 Maritime Patrol Aircraft (MPA).

infoglobal.co.id

Infoglobal has grown to a competent company in electronic and information technology. The main focuses of the products are aviation electronic device called Avionics. Infoglobal also develops some applications software, including training and implementation services.

m.infoglobal.co.id

 

[Ahmad]

This is just a wish list, the airforce plan/want/need this stuff, but it is totally unrealistic to think that even 50% of this list become realitly.
It seems that the budget for the fighter procurement is around $1,6 billion, not enough for a full squadron of Rafales, let alone 36 Rafales or 15 F-15EX. With such a budget its better to order just one full squadron of F-16V Block 72s.
I also dont see a GOOD reason to suddenly switch to the F-15. Yes it has similar engines with the F-16, but anything else is different. It is much more expensive in acquisition, maintenance, logistics and operation compared to the F-16. It is even questionable if the US is willing to sell such an advanced fighter to a country like Indonesia, even the USAF hasnt received the F-15X/EX yet. In July 2020, the U.S. Defense Department ordered eight fighters over three years for $1,2 billion. And that price is for their own airforce, so it is just impossible that Indonesia can get 15 brandnew F-15EXs for just $1,6 billion, even without sustainment package.

And then there have to be the funds for the refurbishment and upgrading the older fighters in our fleet. (Is there even an upgradepackage for the Hawk Mk109/209?) And also for the 15 (!) C-130Js and 2 MRTTs.... i dont know where that money has to come from.

With an administration that uses every reason and excuse to spend less on defence and more on infrastructure projects to attract chin...i mean foreign investors, it is in my opinion quite unlikeable that more than 25% of the list above will be ordered (and not later cancelled!) before 2025.

That is a wish list from Air Force, previously they also have similar wish list for 3 squadrons of F16 V and now it changes into Rafale ?? Seems weird IMO since F16V offer similar capabilities with less cost and better compatibility with previous F 16 squadrons. The maintenance infrastructure is already great by seeing how they can undergo MidLIFE upgrade for 10 old F 16 with the help from LM and PTDI. Maybe Dassault offers some Kick Back? It should be look up and KPK needs to tap our Mindef and all of top military brass from now on and they have reason to do so. They need to avoid making such thing since death penalty will be considered during this pandemic period over any corruption case.

F 15 EX fighters

Talking about F15 EX. It seems like F-15 EX will become the first which get the funding if the Air Force plan get green light from Economic Ministers (Finance Minister and Bappenas). It is by seeing the comment from one of our Armed Force General who said F-15 EX will come in 2022 (if the plan get the funding). The budget is only 1.6 billion USD and it is quite fit with latest US Air Force acquisition of 8 F 15 EX with 1.1 billion USD. So it may become the replacement from SU 35 deal which is also in similar class with F15 EX. The plan is also showing that we are going to leave SU 35 deal amid fear of backlash from US due to CATSA (It can also have the possibility to affect KFX/IFX program, particularly for IFX planes).

Rafale acquisition in the other hand should be scrapped due to very expensive and largely different from previous fighter acquisition infrastructure since F15EX still has engine and weapon similarity with our F16. Rafale acquisition plan should be replaced by KFX/IFX program (if we still want to continue the program-which I also highly support). Rafale role and class is also not different with F 16 and KFX/IFX.

Nope, I dont think US will be reluctant to let us buy it since it may become the replacement of their previous rejection on our F35 acquisition proposal during the end of Trump administration. F35 is out of question but F15 EX seems possible by seeing our strategic relation with US and US broaden agenda to balance China in SCS.

Budget matter

The budget maybe 1.2 billion USD for 8 F 15 EX planes and 400 million USD for refurbishment and upgrading of older fighter planes. C 130 J and MRTT comes from other budget (not that 1.6 billion USD) and as I said it is a wish list and will have to wait until the fund is available, but it would likely be bought in stages.

Any way that mentioned 1.6 billion USD budget comes from Alman twitt which is also being used by many Indonesian fanboys, is there any credible source for that 1.6 billion USD budget ? That budget may come from previous budget allocated to buy 11 SU 35 that has already been approved some years ago, so it may be not an issue. As I said previously, that F 5 replacement program is the program that have good possibility to come true during Jokowi second term administration.

 

[Ahmad]

According to this news, US congress approves 1.2 billion USD budget to buy 12 F 15 EX (Not only 8).

"Congress first included funds in December to purchase eight F-15EXs through the fiscal 2020 spending bill, and lawmakers approved spending $1.2 billion to buy 12 F-15EXs in fiscal 2021."

Boeing’s F-15EX jet makes its first flight

If that is the case so the figure is not different with SU 35 deal in term of the total figure. SU 35 deal will be payed in half by using barter though and the rest by cash, that is the only different and the number is for 11 planes.

 

[Ananda]

SU 35 deal will be payed in half by using barter though and the rest by cash, that is the only different and the number is for 11 planes.

That's miss conception that circulate on the Indonesian defense Forumers. Read the deal again. The contract of USD 1.1 bio is pay by cash. However as Rosoboron did not offer Off Set deal as law dictate, they are replacing the off set deals with Trade deals instead. This's the misinterpreted coming, the trade deals in the amount of half of contract that make many think the deal is half trade barter and half cash. Instead the trade deals is what the Russian offer in place of Off Set ToT.

That part of trade deals that also responsible with Su-35 dragging on. The type of items going to be included in trade deals result with prolonged negotiations, and no secret some 'political' connect traders try to get into slice of trade deals.

At least with US, French and other Western suppliers, they are so far shown willingness to provide off set deals. Off Set deals not must related to Fighters it self. Like India they got off set deals in part of engine parts and involved with Dassault Falcon business jet supply chain.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

I wonder what the offset deal is if Indonesia order the F-16, C-130J or something else from the US. Dassault-Breguet, Saab and Eurofighter Jagdflugzeug are willing to offer a lot of offset deals and ToT. Hopefully it will be more than just MRO for TNI-AUs own fleet.

This development shown question in my opinion, the optimism on Turboprop manufacturer for future of this type. Eventough ATR still think the market for Turboprop still growing, however recent developments put that in question.

De Haviland already stop production of Q400 (eventough they claim only temporary due to COVID condition). Now the US Airlines as the biggest market in the world (so far until China take over), also dropping Turboprop for regional Jets. Even China eventough still have Turboprop Airliners in their Production line, however for shorter range choose more and more toward to their Regional Jet ARJ-21.

Even if the Market for Turboprop still exists, but it's relegated toward smaller range (below 300-400 miles) or remote region. Even the capacity only for less than 70 pac.

For me this raise question on business viability of some in Indonesia that wants to build large Turboprop above 70 pac. Are they not reading the market trend ??

I just answer it here, because it is too emberassing to put it in the General Aviation Thread.

It took almost a decade for Indonesia to develop a simple small twin-turboprop like the N219, mostly because of lack of funds and political willingness to support the program.
And although the N245 is a direct development from the CN235, i am sure it will take again 10 year until the development is finished and the N245 get its Type and Production Certificates.
The R80 is a brandnew design, and it will just end up as the smaller N250.
And now netizens are fantasizing about the largest turboprop airliner ever made, because some moronic official proudly announced the development of the N2140, which would probably become some kind of Super C-130 / Über A400M, but with just two engines....

 

[Ananda]

The R80 is a brandnew design, and it will just end up as the smaller N250

Like the video put, the market trend moving from Turboprop toward regional jet is due to flexibility of regional Jets doing short range inter urban area routes and regional International. Regional Jets used by Airlines on relative short range inter urban like London - Manchester and provide similar efficiency if using between London - Frankfurt. Thus why Airlines want to invest on limited usefulness of Turboprop ?

Turboprop relegated to only very short range route or remote area, thus it's limit the need for high capacity ones. Also if the area have good airport facilities, then why the need for Turboprop ? The improvement of airport facilities including runways in many area in Indonesia that usually only able to take small Turboprop into regional jet capabilities, in the end reduce the need for large Turboprop itself.

Anyway this's from CNN Indonesia. This's talk about presentation in TNI-MinDef meeting (RAPIM-TNI) documentation to the press. It's talk on what TNI already put in modernisation plan including the amount of budget of USD 21 bio to get all moving. This includes procurement of new assets and refurbishing plus maintenance of existing assets.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

It seems that also MALE UCAVs and AEW-aircrafts are add on the wishlist.

KSAU soal Pengadaan Alutsista: Perkuat TNI Jaga Kedaulatan Negara

Fadjar menjelaskan pengadaan alutsista ini juga memiliki kontribusi yang signifikan, yakni sebagai salah satu bentuk diplomasi pertahanan yang strategis.

news.detik.com

Anyway this's from CNN Indonesia. This's talk about presentation in TNI-MinDef meeting (RAPIM-TNI) documentation to the press. It's talk on what TNI already put in modernisation plan including the amount of budget of USD 21 bio to get all moving. This includes procurement of new assets and refurbishing plus maintenance of existing assets.

For such a wishlist $21 billion is much more realistic. After more than 6 years of almost no spending on new equipment, it would be nice if this really go to happen....
If...

 

[Ahmad]

I wonder what the offset deal is if Indonesia order the F-16, C-130J or something else from the US. Dassault-Breguet, Saab and Eurofighter Jagdflugzeug are willing to offer a lot of offset deals and ToT. Hopefully it will be more than just MRO for TNI-AUs own fleet.


I just answer it here, because it is too emberassing to put it in the General Aviation Thread.

It took almost a decade for Indonesia to develop a simple small twin-turboprop like the N219, mostly because of lack of funds and political willingness to support the program.
And although the N245 is a direct development from the CN235, i am sure it will take again 10 year until the development is finished and the N245 get its Type and Production Certificates.
The R80 is a brandnew design, and it will just end up as the smaller N250.
And now netizens are fantasizing about the largest turboprop airliner ever made, because some moronic official proudly announced the development of the N2140, which would probably become some kind of Super C-130 / Über A400M, but with just two engines....

The problem is money bro, the budget to make a full development of the program was just released in 2014. If we talk about money so it is better to relate it to political will than to any other else. Just look on MALE UCAV program which get full support since the start. They can make it pretty fast I would say.......

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

"MALE UCAV" is on the wishlist, but the type is not mentioned, i wonder if they mean Elang Hitam or a foreign model.

One thing is sure, and i am sorry to say this Ahmad, but looking to the result of this year RAPIM 2021, it is highly likely that Indonesia will not participate anymore in the KFX/IFX-project. It is absolutely impossible, tidak mungkin and mustahil that there arr still funds left over for this project, even if only 25% of this wishlist become reality.

 

[Ahmad]

"MALE UCAV" is on the wishlist, but the type is not mentioned, i wonder if they mean Elang Hitam or a foreign model.

One thing is sure, and i am sorry to say this Ahmad, but looking to the result of this year RAPIM 2021, it is highly likely that Indonesia will not participate anymore in the KFX/IFX-project. It is absolutely impossible, tidak mungkin and mustahil that there arr still funds left over for this project, even if only 25% of this wishlist become reality.

That are just wishlist from Armed Force, even the General said it hasnt yet been approved by Minister of Defense, let alone Finance Minister and Bappenas. As we know from Lembaga Keris is that the total budget for new Air Force acquisition that has been approved by Bappenas is 1.6 billion USD which is the total budget for Jokowi administration second period (2019-2024). Lembaga Keris said "period" not "this year."

This budget has been approved and can be seen from 2021 budget where once again Lembaga Keris has shown a document that reveals some amount of money has been budgeted and it is intended for F 5 replacement. That money is in small amount and look like some sort of yearly payment to pay the loan. I am sure you have seen the number right ?

Any way as I said earlier, regarding total budget of 1.6 billion USD, that kind of budget is not much different with SU 35 deal budget that has also been approved some years ago. The number is increasing but according to Alman it is not only for new acquisition, but also for other fighter program that could be interpreted as refurbishment and (might be) some upgrade for older fighter jets.

 

[Ananda]

Air Force plans to buy used F-15s, Dassault Rafale - ANTARA News

The Indonesian Air Force (TNI AU) is planning to buy sophisticated 4.5 generation fighter jets, including France-made Dassault Rafale and used US-made F-15s, ...

en.antaranews.com

Now, Antara put in their article the F-15 is used ones while Rafale is new one. This's could make sense, since Prabowo's claim that some of F-15 can come soon. If they're using existing F-15E already in USAF inventory (since they're replacing some of them with EX version) then it can be done faster as Prabowo's claim.

On the other hand, it can also some miss quote from Antara. Still Antara is official news agency, putting claim of 'used' F-15 while the others claim F-15EX. For me personally Antara claim can be believable due to time period claim that Prabowo's stating in TNI High Level meeting (Rapim).

As budget, right now there're many speculation. Since I still not see official number yet. From Alman Helvas (and many forumers used) USD 1.6 bio, to CNN that claim already see official letter talking about USD 21 Bio.

For me, I still believe what I hear from my colleagues in Bapenas that talk what already pass the calculation process from them are 2 packages of Fighters procurement. One for Su-35 sq (around USD 1.1+ bio) and for F-16V 2sq (around USD 2.3+ bio). Thus if MinDef want to change the packages, they've to modify the existing packages. This can be done by changing some other procurement packages from overall MinDef.

Thus personally I think the procurement packages still based from what already calculate, only being change from Su-35 to F-15E (still need to clarify it's new ones or used and refurbished ones), and F-16V being change to Rafale. However I also believe that some AF or other services foreign procurement program will be reduced, to compensate increase USD amount on the fighters packages budget.

For USD 21bio on MinDef International procurement budget feasible or not ? If they're using multiyears calculation of Foreign Credit Line (as usual for Foreign Financing transaction as I've put sometimes ago), which based on medium financing line that Ministry of Finance usually used of 7 years, then it's doable. With MTN trend interest for 7 years average period, it's talking around USD 3.5 bio annually.

With refurbished F-15E and newly build Rafale, it's still not clear yet if MinDef already using lifetime calculation procurement budget. Lifetime calculation budget should be used if they're using multiyears budget calculation. Hopefully Bapenas make sure on that.

This USD 21 bio international procurement budget, I don't believe it's only for TNI-AU. I suspect 40% for TNI-AU, 40% for TNI-AL, and 20% for TNI-AD. Remember this budget (whatever the final number will be) only use for foreign procurement that using Foreign credit line. Domestic procurement will usually using different budget package Financing. That's why I only predicted the Army using 20% of foreign financing, as so far the Army already source more from Domestic thus using domestic financing.

Again it's only my calculations based on whatever circle around in Media. USD 21 bio foreign credit line for foreign procurement with interest come to around USD 24-25 bio total due on average of 7 years tenure. This will make around 30% of total defense budget (using conservative annual increment of defense budget 5% from this year USD 10 bio). Looking on that assumption, then USD 21bio foreign procurement budget is doable, however very tight.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Air Force plans to buy used F-15s, Dassault Rafale - ANTARA News

The Indonesian Air Force (TNI AU) is planning to buy sophisticated 4.5 generation fighter jets, including France-made Dassault Rafale and used US-made F-15s, ...

en.antaranews.com

Now, Antara put in their article the F-15 is used ones while Rafale is new one. This's could make sense, since Prabowo's claim that some of F-15 can come soon. If they're using existing F-15E already in USAF inventory (since they're replacing some of them with EX version) then it can be done faster as Prabowo's claim.

On the other hand, it can also some miss quote from Antara. Still Antara is official news agency, putting claim of 'used' F-15 while the others claim F-15EX. For me personally Antara claim can be believable due to time period claim that Prabowo's stating in TNI High Level meeting (Rapim).

As budget, right now there're many speculation. Since I still not see official number yet. From Alman Helvas (and many forumers used) USD 1.6 bio, to CNN that claim already see official letter talking about USD 21 Bio.

For me, I still believe what I hear from my colleagues in Bapenas that talk what already pass the calculation process from them are 2 packages of Fighters procurement. One for Su-35 sq (around USD 1.1+ bio) and for F-16V 2sq (around USD 2.3+ bio). Thus if MinDef want to change the packages, they've to modify the existing packages. This can be done by changing some other procurement packages from overall MinDef.

Thus personally I think the procurement packages still based from what already calculate, only being change from Su-35 to F-15E (still need to clarify it's new ones or used and refurbished ones), and F-16V being change to Rafale. However I also believe that some AF or other services foreign procurement program will be reduced, to compensate increase USD amount on the fighters packages budget.

For USD 21bio on MinDef International procurement budget feasible or not ? If they're using multiyears calculation of Foreign Credit Line (as usual for Foreign Financing transaction as I've put sometimes ago), which based on medium financing line that Ministry of Finance usually used of 7 years, then it's doable. With MTN trend interest for 7 years average period, it's talking around USD 3.5 bio annually.

With refurbished F-15E and newly build Rafale, it's still not clear yet if MinDef already using lifetime calculation procurement budget. Lifetime calculation budget should be used if they're using multiyears budget calculation. Hopefully Bapenas make sure on that.

This USD 21 bio international procurement budget, I don't believe it's only for TNI-AU. I suspect 40% for TNI-AU, 40% for TNI-AL, and 20% for TNI-AD. Remember this budget (whatever the final number will be) only use for foreign procurement that using Foreign credit line. Domestic procurement will usually using different budget package Financing. That's why I only predicted the Army using 20% of foreign financing, as so far the Army already source more from Domestic thus using domestic financing.

Again it's only my calculations based on whatever circle around in Media. USD 21 bio foreign credit line for foreign procurement with interest come to around USD 24-25 bio total due on average of 7 years tenure. This will make around 30% of total defense budget (using conservative annual increment of defense budget 5% from this year USD 10 bio). Looking on that assumption, then USD 21bio foreign procurement budget is doable, however very tight.

Until now the F-15 variants are only sold to countries which are very close allies and/or have a large defence budget.

It is also very unlikely, actually impossible that Indonesia will get soon the F-15EX, IF the US allows Indonesia to buy this advanced and expensive aircraft. The first flight of the F-15EX was just recently, and even the USAF have to wait until 2023 to get the last of the first 8 ordered.

If RI really is getting the F-15 in a short period, in order to show it off at the next 5 Oktober, then it will be some old F-15C/Ds. After all the USAF aims to acquire at least 144 of the F-15EX fighter jets as it sets about replacing its older F-15C/D Eagles that are rapidly running out of airframe hours.

The Air Force’s New F-15EX Eagle Just Took To The Sky For The First Time (Updated)

The flight comes nearly 50 years after the F-15A first flew. This latest Eagle iteration is set to replace the USAF's F-15C/D fleet, and maybe more.

www.thedrive.com

One last thing, USAF's $1,2 billion contract is covering the delivery of the first lot of eight aircraft.
If RI is really planning to order 15 F-15EX, the value of the contract will certainly double, there is no way the US will sell this aircraft to Indonesia for a lower price than to its own airforce. Besides that TNI-AU has to start from zero, it has never operated the F-15 before.