Nagorniy Karabakh

Feanor

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I saw some reports that Azerbaijani S-300 PMU's intercepted missiles launched by Armenia at Azerbaijani oil or gas pipelines. Maybe Armenia does not have enough ballistic missiles to overwhelm Azerbaijani missile defenses. If they did, would they not have taken them out by now?
I don't buy this. They have multiple Elbrus, Tochka, and Iskander launchers. Not to mention those BM-30s. Fire all of those in a timed volley to arrive on target at the same time from different areas, and I don't see how Azerbaijan's meager S-300 btlns can stop this. Iirc Azerbaijan fields single-battery btlns of the system (i.e. 4 TELs per unit, instead of the Russian standard of 8-12 TELs per) so their ability to stop say 30+ ballistic inbounds is questionable at best.
 

Beholder

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Such attack will put assets in the open(at least it will give perfect excuse for Azerbaijan(or Turkey) to attack it on Armenian territory, as happened in reality with limited strikes), won't necessarily influence Azerbaijan decision making and create diplomatic problems for Armenia.
Ability to harm pipeline for extended period of time is limited, if you take in account CEP and whatever number Azerbaijan can shot down.


Diplomatic problems on the other hand are not as short lived and one party that is most problematic is Turkey.
This article for example show who has interest in pipeline and as expected Turkey is major shareholder:

Armenia threatens global energy supply by attacking Azerbaijani pipelines

Source is TRT, Turkish Radio and Television Corporation national public broadcaster of Turkey.
 

Feanor

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Update.

Another downed Bayraktar TB2 has shown up. It's unclear how many exactly, it appears that at least 2, possibly as many as 4, have gone down. I haven't had time to look at the serial numbers shown in the photos. It's interesting whether this represents improvements in Armenian air defense operations, or simply a function of the TB2s being used more actively.


Putin has made some interesting public statements, calling Armenia and Azerbaijan "equal partners" for Russia, nearly 5000 KIA in the fighting, the conflict started in the 90s due to crimes committed against the Armenian population. Russia has attempted to find a compromise but so far this has failed. He is contact with Pashinyan and Aliev daily, and Russia's position does not coincide with Turkey's in this conflict.

 

SolarWind

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US House of Representatives is considering a resolution to recognize the breakaway republic of Artsakh. Hopefully, this might put an end to the war and return parties to negotiations.
 

Feanor

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Canada is halting supplies of Rotax engines for the Bayraktar TB2. This comes as Turkey appears to be flying extra UAVs of the type to Azerbaijan. It's interesting whether this is indirect confirmation that the Armenians brought down more of them then initially thought. Then again it could just be continuation of previous deliveries, or even the deployment of Turkish assets as part of their mission in Azerbaijan.

 

SolarWind

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About 60% of Nagorno Karabah residents have left their homes because of "purposeful and indiscriminate attacks" and "lasting threats". That is about 90 thousand people.
 

Ananda

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House of Representatives is considering a resolution to recognize the breakaway republic of Artsakh. Hopefully, this might put an end to the war and return parties to negotiations.
On contrary, this kind of move by mostly Democrats law makers can potentially push Azerbaijan and Turkey supports to gain as much as possible teritorial momentum before potential Democrats White House after November election.

Armenian Diaspora in US Lobby and influence mostly with Democrats. The Republican so far shown more interest and incline with Azerbaijan, I suspect mostly due to Azerbaijan Oil and Gas business.
Armenian Diaspora in US so far manage successfully to paint Armenian as oppressed people from Turkey and Azerbaijan. They manage to diverted in many Liberal pro Democrats media in US the fact that Armenia now occupied 20% of International recognize Azerbaijan territory.

Turkey and Azerbaijan knows very well that Democrats White house will be more inclined to protect Armenian. It is just like Kosovo, where Albanian successfully being picture as oppressed people by Serbian in Kosovo, thus this's what Albanian and their Democrats supporters try to put it also.

Thus I don't see it as potential 'breake' to Azerbaijan, but on contrary it can be motivate them more to continue their momentum in the ground.
 

Feanor

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Updates.

It looks like Armenia repulsed an Azeri push towards the Lachin corridor. It's possible that the Azeri offensive simply needs time to regroup and resupply. Armenia claims a column of BTR-70s captured, with a video of 4 BTR-70s apparently intact and abandoned, along a stretch of road. We have the usual assortment of UAV and artillery videos. The first map in the second link is interesting, it shows the competing claims, green is the Azeri claimed front line, red is the Armenian claim. The current situation may reflect Armenia finally managing to stabilize the front line, at least temporarily. Or it may represent a short operational pause before Azerbaijan pushes further towards Lachin.


The Russian flags spotted on the Armenian border apparently belong to a Russian military unit, a very small one, with apparently no armored vehicles, on the border. It's likely their presence is symbolic, suggesting that Azerbaijan not cross the border.


The Turkish F-16s that were spotted in Gyandzha are now in Gabala, another Azeri airbase. The source claims 6 though only 4 are visible in the photo provided.


An Israeli Sky Striker UAV brought down by Armenian forces.


Armenia has also shown off their first loitering munition. This likely has more to do with propaganda value then anything else, since deploying them requires more then just a few UAVs and a control station. Azerbaijan uses theirs together with longer range recon UAVs to find targets, and in conjunction with ground forces.


President Aliev has stated that he is ready for a ceasefire in the NKR. This appears to be a smoke screen, since Azeri forces have been on the offensive.

 

SolarWind

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Apparently, Putin commented on a possibility of potential resolution of the conflict with handing back to Azerbaijan the 5+2 (7) districts that Armenians of Nagorno-Karabah and Armenia captured in the 90's, while working out some regime of support for the would-be territorially isolated Karabah zone in cooperation with Armenia.

 

ngatimozart

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It has been announced that a trilateral agreement has been reached between Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Russia that ends the current conflict in NKR. Russia will be providing peacekeepers and will occupy a buffer zone in NKR between the belligerent.

 

Feanor

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Update.

I haven't had as much time lately so I'm going to make a very large summary post.

So far the campaign for the past two weeks has gone as follows. After advancing along the Iranian border, and attempting to take the Lachin corridor, Azeri forces shifted their push towards the town of Shushi, it sits between Lachin and Stepanakert, and after days of heavy fighting and bad weather potentially limiting the effectiveness of airpower (which allowed NKR and Armenian forces to use heavy armor again), Shushi has fallen to Azerbaijan, effectively cutting off Stepanakert. Shortly before the truce was declared there was information about fighting on the outskirts of Stepanakert itself. There was some Russian troop movement in southern Armenia, setting up token forces near the Armenian-Azeri border, and causing some speculation about the potential use of Russian EW against Azeri UAS. This ended with the downing of a Russian Mi-24P helo near the Azeri border allegedly by MANPADS, when the helo was covering the movement of a Russian troop column. Immediately after this incident, there was a joint statement released ending the conflict, and setting up new conditions for the NKR.

Armenian casualties in vehicles and artillery appear to be high, Azeri lower, but they still lost some BMPs, BTRs, possibly another T-90, some armored cars and some trucks. It also appears there were some Azeri airstrikes by fixed wing aircraft towards the end.

This situation was briefly interrupted by a US attempt at mediating the conflict, that predictably failed to establish any lasting ceasefire.


Assorted combat footage.


An Armenian ZSU-23-4 operating.


Abandoned Armenian positions.


Armenian launches of Elbrus SRBMs.


Another collection of UAV, Spike, and arty exchanges. It's noteworthy that another 3 Armenian BM-30s were destroyed, added to the 2 taken out earlier, they're down to 1 TEL.

 

Feanor

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Azeri forces shot down an improvised Armenian quadcopter/loitering munition. It's of course possible that it crashed on its own.


An Armenian S-300 TEL getting hit in the first link, and some photos of S-300 damage in the second. In the third an overall look at damage and destruction of Armenian S-300s.


An Armenian/NKR Krug TEL near Stepanakert.


An interesting infographic on UAVs in this war.


Downed/crashed Azeri UAVs including a potential Bayraktar TB2.


A collection of Kargu quadcopters in Azeri hands.


Armenian forces in the NKR.


Azeri forces in Talysh, a village in the NKR.


A captured Syrian fighter in Armenia is telling of large casualties taken by Syrian fighters in this war.


The MinDef of the NKR was wounded in an Azeri strike.


A Metis-M ATGM in Armenian hands.


An Armenian KS-19 AAA cannon.


Azeri trophies.


An Armenian source alleging Turkish aircraft operating in support of Azeri operations, from Turkish airspace through recon and command and control, including, potentially, the E-7.


Iran is rebasing additional units to the Azeri border including air defenses. They have also issued statements that a base of Israeli spies or Syrian fighters near their border would constitute a red line.

 

Feanor

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Update 2.

The conditions of the current agreement are as follows;

1) on 0 hours 10 Nov. 2020 Moscow time a complete ceasefire.

2) Agdam and Gazhari region areas occupied by Armenia are to be returned to Azerbaijan by Nov. 20th.

3) 1960 Russian peacekeepers will be deployed along the NKR demarcation line and the Lachin corridor, with 90 APCs and 380 trucks and cars.

4) The peacekeepers are deployed simultaneously with the withdrawal of Armenian forces and are there for 5 years with automatic extensions unless either side notifies 6 months in advance that they intend to withdraw from the agreement.

5) A peacekeeping monitoring center is getting set up to monitor the ceasefire.

6) The Kelbadzhar region is to be returned to Azerbaijan by Nov. 15th, and and Lachin region by Dec. 1st, with the Lachin corridor, 5 kms wide, to be retained connecting the NKR to Armenia, and not including the town of Shuha. A movement plan is to be developed for communication between the NKR and Armenia, with Russian peacekeepers supporting the movement. The Azeris guarantee movement for citizens, vehicles, and cargo.

7) Refugees are to be allowed to return under UN oversight.

8) Exchange of prisoners and bodies from both sides.

9) All economic and transportation ties in the region are to be unblocked, including connection between western Azerbaijan and Nakhichevan. Control to be done by the Russian FSB.


In Armenia crowds are storming the parliament. It looks like the Pashinyan government may be done for in the aftermath, and it remains to be seen whether this ceasefire holds.


The first Russia peacekeepers may have already arrived, the 15th Motor-Rifles are the likeliest candidate.


EDIT2: Towards the very end, we have footage of a rare Armenian Tor-M2KM hit by a loitering munition. It appears to be monitored from afar by UAV, and once it stopped operating and rolled into a garage, hit by a munition of some sort.

 

Sandhi Yudha

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Update 2.

The conditions of the current agreement are as follows;

1) on 0 hours 10 Nov. 2020 Moscow time a complete ceasefire.

2) Agdam and Gazhari region areas occupied by Armenia are to be returned to Azerbaijan by Nov. 20th.

3) 1960 Russian peacekeepers will be deployed along the NKR demarcation line and the Lachin corridor, with 90 APCs and 380 trucks and cars.

4) The peacekeepers are deployed simultaneously with the withdrawal of Armenian forces and are there for 5 years with automatic extensions unless either side notifies 6 months in advance that they intend to withdraw from the agreement.

5) A peacekeeping monitoring center is getting set up to monitor the ceasefire.

6) The Kelbadzhar region is to be returned to Azerbaijan by Nov. 15th, and and Lachin region by Dec. 1st, with the Lachin corridor, 5 kms wide, to be retained connecting the NKR to Armenia, and not including the town of Shuha. A movement plan is to be developed for communication between the NKR and Armenia, with Russian peacekeepers supporting the movement. The Azeris guarantee movement for citizens, vehicles, and cargo.

7) Refugees are to be allowed to return under UN oversight.

8) Exchange of prisoners and bodies from both sides.

9) All economic and transportation ties in the region are to be unblocked, including connection between western Azerbaijan and Nakhichevan. Control to be done by the Russian FSB.


In Armenia crowds are storming the parliament. It looks like the Pashinyan government may be done for in the aftermath, and it remains to be seen whether this ceasefire holds.


The first Russia peacekeepers may have already arrived, the 15th Motor-Rifles are the likeliest candidate.


EDIT2: Towards the very end, we have footage of a rare Armenian Tor-M2KM hit by a loitering munition. It appears to be monitored from afar by UAV, and once it stopped operating and rolled into a garage, hit by a munition of some sort.

Thanks for sharing.
Probably the UAV is very small and not detectable, or the radar of the Tor-M2KM is switched off.


The letter in English

I understand the frustration of the people, but with the cease fire total defeat of the Armenoan Armed Forces is prevented.
 

Feanor

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Updates.

A look at the map of the NKR post-conflict. It looks like Azerbaijan will regain all territories not part of Nagorny Karabakh proper but held by the NKR at the end of the conflict, and will also keep portions of the NKR occupied in this conflict. Russian peacekeepers will operate in two areas of responsibility, north and south. A series of observation posts will be set up along the Lachin corridor by Russia to monitor the area. Also Turkey will participate in monitoring but will not be putting any boots on the ground. This likely means Turkish personnel in the monitoring center for the peacekeeping mission, and Turkish aircraft flying the area.

It's important to note that the current arrangement doesn't offer any permanent solutions to the status of the NKR, only a 5 year delay, following which Azerbaijan could, hypothetically, simply cancel the entire arrangement and complete what they have started. The remaining territories are almost indefensible given the provinces sacrificed by the NKRs.


The last photo in this link shows a slideshow screen from a presentation about the deployment of Russian forces that reveals some details. We see motor-rifle companies being deployed, at least one "platoon" (2 vehicles, 10 men) of MPs, 2 Orlan-10 UAV teams (likely multiple UAVs per team), a mortar battery and a helicopter air group among other units.


Russian peacekeepers preparing for transit to the NKR and arriving in Armenia, en route to the NKR. There are, so far unconfirmed, reports that Tayfun-K MRAPs and Lynxes will be involved in the mission. Among interesting things, we can see a relatively rare BREM-K, an ARV based on the BTR-80 (or possibly 82) platform. It appears that many of the forces will come from the 15th Motor-Rifles (a unit traditionally heavily involved in peacekeeping abroad), but at least some are currently coming from the 31st Para-Assault Bde.


Footage, allegedly, of Iskander launches by Armenia, during the conflict.


Protests are continuing in Yerevan, and the Pashinyan government may or may not survive this.

 

ngatimozart

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@Feanor how impartial do you think the Russians will be? They did back the Armenians after all. I don't have any faith in Turkish impartiality because of Erdoğan and the historical enmity that the Turks have against Armenians. They still get really cranky when the Armenian Genocide is mentioned and Erdoğan really blows a fuse.
 
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