Nagorniy Karabakh

Feanor

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Updates.

Armenia struck targets in the Azeri city of Gyandzha. Note this is well outside the disputed territories. The city as an airbase, and is the place where Turkish F-16 were based during recent joint exercises. The Armenian side claims they struck the military airfield but its clear that they either missed, or used munitions so inaccurate as to strike multiple areas in the city (it's of course possible that they intentionally hit the city itself). In at least one photo of the damage a person in military uniform with a Turkish flag chevron appears, leading many to suggest that Turkish military personnel may still be in Gyandzha. Armenia issued a statement claiming that this was 1) a strike against the airbase 2) retribution for the recent bombardments of Stepanakert, and that the strikes have been halted at this time but would continue if Azerbaijan keeps shelling Stepanakert. It appears that a BM-30 Smerch was used. Shelling of Stepanakert has continued even after the strike, and one of Aliev's advisers issued a statement suggesting that targets inside Armenia may be struck in response to this attack. This would of course, at least potentially, trigger the CSTO and could bring Russia into the fight, as well as other CSTO allies (though how many others would be willing and able to jump in questionable). Please note, there is disagreement about where the strike originated with Armenia claiming it came from inside the NKR while Azerbaijan claims it came from Armenia.


Some footage of damage from rocket-artillery strikes against Stepanakert, for comparison.


There are reports that Azerbaijan took Dzhebrail, in the south of the NKR. Confirmation is lacking and Armenia still denies losing Magadiz. If true, this represents a major gain, and seriously threatens the NKR from the south.

 

SolarWind

Active Member
Azerbaijan filed criminal charges against the leader of NK for the strike on Gyandzha.

Seems they are officially acting like they buy the claims that the strikes on Gyandzha were launched from the territory of NK, at least for now, until there is a good reason to believe otherwise.
 

SolarWind

Active Member
In some original content from bmpd:
Presents interesting analysis of the flare-up and Azerbaijan's preparation, goals, and challenges. The authors believe Azerbaijan is playing a long term game and its immediate goals are somewhat limited, and do not include complete capture of the entire NK, however presenting serious political challenges to Russia.
 
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Feanor

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Update.

An Azeri column was hit in a canyon north of Magadiz. This suggests either Armenian/NKR infiltrators (suggesting that the front line isn't as solid as one might think or even that the Azeris don't really control the areas around Magadiz) or that the Armenian claims that Magadiz was never taken is true. Armenian sources claim that Azeri troops fled Magadiz due to heavy shelling, after entering the town.

We have confirmation (second link) that two Azeri T-90s were captured. Meanwhile Azerbaijan has demonstrated three Armenian T-72s also captured.

It seems that Azerbaijan has been using large quantities of An-2s either as decoy targets to draw fire from SAMs, or as unmanned platforms of some sort. Prior to the current war they had 61 of them at the Yevlakh airport, now they're down to 26.

There are reports that Silk Way airlines is flying in extra weapons out of Israel and Turkey.

There are also reports of cluster munitions being used against Stepanakert.

 

Feanor

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Update.

The president of Karabakh has declared that they've executed a partial retreat in order to cause more damage to the enemy. This is confirmation that at least some of the gains made by Azerbaijan. This comes as Azerbaijan claims and demonstrates video of the village of Talysh. Note, we still haven't received good video confirmation of Azeri claims on Dzhebrail or Magadiz.

There's a fresh bucket of videos, with fewer UAV strikes and more artillery work in action. Stepanakert is getting hit hard which raises questions about whether the goal is to drive away some of the Armenian population.


The Town of Mingechaur was apparently hit by a BM-30 strike. The town has a major hydro-electric plant, whose destruction would be catastrophic for the electrical grid in Azerbaijan and would potentially flood a large area. This strike may have meant to send a message.


A map from the NKR was leaked in a photo, either accidentally or intentionally (disinformation).


Another photoset of captured Armenian equipment and vehicles.


More destroyed T-72s.

 

Feanor

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Updates.

In the south there are reports that 3 Azeri brigades entered a gorge near Dzhabrail, following retreating Armenian forces, but were counter-attacked leaving 1 brigade surrounded. So far these are Armenian claims, confirmation is lacking. A photo of Azeri troops in Dzhebrail is also available. It will likely be some time until we can verify the truth or falsity of these claims.

In the north there are claims by Armenia that Azeri forces withdrew from Magadiz after raising the flag on camera because the hills on one side are controlled by Armenian forces. This has the ring of truth, given the lack of Azeri evidence for control of the village, and considering that the village is overlooked by hills on several sides.

A satellite photo of Turkish F-16s at Gyadzha airbase has surfaced, dated October 3rd. Please note the town of Gyadzha was recently hit by a missile strike and an individual in a military uniform with a Turkish flag chevron was photographed in the aftermath.

And a US military reconnaissance aircraft flew from Romania across the Black Sea and along the Georgian border near Armenia and Azerbaijan.


Footage of Armenian forces downing an Azeri UAV. With mounting UAV losses, there are unconfirmed reports that Turkey intends to deliver 36 Bayraktar TB2s to Azerbaijan.


Kurdish sources out of Syria are also claiming that Turkey is sending fighters out of Syria to Azerbaijan. They also claim that the fighrers are being kept from using their phones freely, except for controlled calls to their families, and that apparently the fighters don't want to fight due to heavy nature of the conflict.

 

Feanor

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Update.

It looks like there's an opening for ending the fighting in Karabakh. Armenian and Azeri representatives are meeting in Moscow to discuss a cease-fire. Currently the meeting is between heads of foreign affairs departments. This comes after a call for a cease-fire from Putin.

The earlier Armenian claims of surrounding a whole brigade of Azeri forces have not panned out. There's no evidence. It's possible that they caught some Azeri mechanized formations in a bad place, and did some damage with arty and ATGMs, but it's also clear that an Armenian tank btln took serious losses from UAV strikes, and no decisive victory is visible, at least at this time.


We have the usual portion of arty and UAV exchanges. I'm noticing fewer loitering munitions and more Bayaraktar TB2 strikes, possibly because the supply of loitering munitions is dropping, possibly because the Armenian air defense took serious losses. Noteworthy is the destruction of an Armenian TOS-1A system.


We have a Greek charter flight allegedly flying volunteer fighters from Greece and Syria to Armenia. This might be more symbolic then a real manpower boost, but, if the fighting continues and expands, who knows.


Azeri claimed control over the village of Gadrut, Armenia disputes these claims, and provided the following video as evidence.


Azeri air defense intercepted a Armenian BM near the Baku-Tbilisi oil pipeline.


Azer helos have been seen operating near the war zone.


NKR forces have been spotted using the rare Yugoslav M55 AAA gun.


A tentative map (in Russian) of air defense sites from both sides of this conflict. Note this excludes many mobile Land Forces air defense positions.

 

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
Update.

It looks like there's an opening for ending the fighting in Karabakh. Armenian and Azeri representatives are meeting in Moscow to discuss a cease-fire. Currently the meeting is between heads of foreign affairs departments. This comes after a call for a cease-fire from Putin.

The earlier Armenian claims of surrounding a whole brigade of Azeri forces have not panned out. There's no evidence. It's possible that they caught some Azeri mechanized formations in a bad place, and did some damage with arty and ATGMs, but it's also clear that an Armenian tank btln took serious losses from UAV strikes, and no decisive victory is visible, at least at this time.


We have the usual portion of arty and UAV exchanges. I'm noticing fewer loitering munitions and more Bayaraktar TB2 strikes, possibly because the supply of loitering munitions is dropping, possibly because the Armenian air defense took serious losses. Noteworthy is the destruction of an Armenian TOS-1A system.


We have a Greek charter flight allegedly flying volunteer fighters from Greece and Syria to Armenia. This might be more symbolic then a real manpower boost, but, if the fighting continues and expands, who knows.


Azeri claimed control over the village of Gadrut, Armenia disputes these claims, and provided the following video as evidence.


Azeri air defense intercepted a Armenian BM near the Baku-Tbilisi oil pipeline.


Azer helos have been seen operating near the war zone.


NKR forces have been spotted using the rare Yugoslav M55 AAA gun.


A tentative map (in Russian) of air defense sites from both sides of this conflict. Note this excludes many mobile Land Forces air defense positions.

Looks like they just installed an M55 on top an MLTB.
I read somewhere that the M55 is still in production, is that right?

Good news, its looks like that starting from today Armenia and Azerbaijan will stop with fighting.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group

The Democrats really shown the double standard. Yes, the present conflicts due to Azerbaijan incursion. However the whole conflicts begin with Armenian attack to Azerbaijan International recognize teritorial. Now due to some Armenian diaspora lobby in US, the Democrats blame everything on Azerbaijan?

They blame Russia for supporting Russian ethnics incursion on Ukraine's Donbas area which dominate by Russian ethnics, but it's ok for Amenian to take over Azerbaijan territory in the name for protection on Armenian ethnics.

US under Republican off course has it's own double standard. However the Democrats really bring double standard to blatantly another level.
 

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member

The Democrats really shown the double standard. Yes, the present conflicts due to Azerbaijan incursion. However the whole conflicts begin with Armenian attack to Azerbaijan International recognize teritorial. Now due to some Armenian diaspora lobby in US, the Democrats blame everything on Azerbaijan?

They blame Russia for supporting Russian ethnics incursion on Ukraine's Donbas area which dominate by Russian ethnics, but it's ok for Amenian to take over Azerbaijan territory in the name for protection on Armenian ethnics.

US under Republican off course has it's own double standard. However the Democrats really bring double standard to blatantly another level.
I thought the situation was de-escalating now.

Well, its better not to supply Armenia or Azerbaijan with extra weaponsystems the coming period. The world is already quite chaotic, i dont think starting an additional proxywar is such a good idea.
 
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Ananda

The Bunker Group
its better not to supply Armenia or Azerbaijan with extra weaponsystems, the coming period. The world is already quite chaotic, i dont think starting an additional proxywar is such a good ideal.
The ideal way is to stop supplying both, but with Democrats urging to stop supplying only to Azerbaijan, it's not giving right gestures in the conflicts. After all both sides has enough wrong doing. With potential they're now in the lead on winning November election, it's in my opinion can give wrong signal to Azerbaijan.

It can get back fire to Azerbaijan that now have bit upper hand, to continue incursion if they think the Democrats White House will sided with Armenian. Democrats also blame Turkey on taking side with Azerbaijan, but not with Israel that continue supplying Azerbaijan. This will only embolden Erdogan on getting more aggresive.
US media blame Trump on US International policies, but it's clear that Democrats International Policies is not better than Trump's one.
 

Beholder

Active Member
Looks like Azeris have the edge but at great cost for both parties.
TB2 and Israeli loitering munitions are proving successful.
Any idea about the EW capabilities of both parties?
Azerbajdzhan claimed one Russian EW station, so at the very least both parties have some technical capabilities.
But in such conflict there is nowhere to use EW, that they have access to.
Counter UAV with EW is very difficult without airborne capability, which Armenia lack.
On the other side of conflict we have AD, that can be somewhat countered by EW, i imagine Turkey can provide help(you basically can use standoff EW support for UAVs in first days)... i don't believe they used it. They don't actually need to. IMO

Basically, You can say Azerbajdzhan UAVs mix is tailor made to counter whatever Armenia has.
 

Feanor

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Updates.

So despite the cease-fire the fighting has continued, albeit on a slightly more limited scale. In the south the Azeris have been claiming control of Gadrut but it appears almost certain that they have not captured it yet. After several attempts to take the village, Azeri forces have flanked it from the south-west taking the village of Tagasher. Armenia still holds the hills to the north and, oddly enough, west of the village, but if the Azeris hold at least some heights overlooking the village, it will turn into a no-mans land similar to Magadiz.


Armenian forces near Gadrut.


Abandoned/captured Armenian equipment.


A map of the conflict that claims Gadrut under Azeri control.


The traditional bucket of UAV and artillery strikes. Noteworthy is the third link which has a video of an Armenian radar getting hit by presumably a loitering munition.


Two R-17 Elbrus and one Tochka IRBMs belonging to Armenia were destroyed by an Azeri strike, in Armenian territory. This could, theoretically trigger the CSTO mutual defense obligations.


Footage of Armenian BMs falling in Gyandzha.


Footage of an alleged execution of Armenian POWs by Azeri soldiers.


There's evidence of 306mm IRBMs (EXTRA) being used by Azerbaijan.


An Azeri An-2 going down, presumably working as a decoy target.


Shells from the Azeri-Armenian war have been falling in Iran. Also two Harop UAVs were brought down by Iran.


Alleged footage of Syrian fighters in Karabakh.


Footage of Azeri soldiers taking away their dead.


Footage of Armenian special forces.


Footage of Azeri air defenses working against Armenian UAVs and missiles. Remains of an Azeri S-300 missile were found in Dagestan, Russia.


Some of those M55 armed MT-LBs have been captured.


We have material showing destruction of one Armenian S-300PS TEL and two radars.


Azerbaijan is accusing Armenia of using civilian aircraft to transport weapons into the country.


Czech Dana howitzers at work in Azerbaijan.


Israeli Spike missiles being used by Azerbaijan.


And a Russian Kornet captured by Azerbaijan from Armenia.


A downed Harop loitering munition is being claimed by Azerbaijan as a downed Armenian drone.


Azeri T-90s with mine trawls attached.

 

ngatimozart

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The alleged Armenian soldiers that were executed, if they were civilian irregulars then under the rules of war they can legally be executed, but in this case it appears that they were summarily shot without any trial whatsoever. If that is the case then that's a war crime.
 

Beholder

Active Member
Updates.

So despite the cease-fire the fighting has continued, albeit on a slightly more limited scale. In the south the Azeris have been claiming control of Gadrut but it appears almost certain that they have not captured it yet. After several attempts to take the village, Azeri forces have flanked it from the south-west taking the village of Tagasher. Armenia still holds the hills to the north and, oddly enough, west of the village, but if the Azeris hold at least some heights overlooking the village, it will turn into a no-mans land similar to Magadiz.
I don't think they tried to capture Gadrut from the start. Control surrounding hills and road is enough, i think Armenian already left Gadrut, nothing gained staying there.
Armenian soldiers that were executed, it was in Gadrut, possibly paramilitary, rather then actual soldiers.

The alleged Armenian soldiers that were executed, if they were civilian irregulars then under the rules of war they can legally be executed, but in this case it appears that they were summarily shot without any trial whatsoever. If that is the case then that's a war crime.
It is. To date there were use of missile on civilian city and execution of azerbajdzhani soldier from Armenian side, use of cluster munitions on allegedly civilian sites and last case of armenian soldiers that were executed from Azerbajdzhan side.
 

Feanor

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The alleged Armenian soldiers that were executed, if they were civilian irregulars then under the rules of war they can legally be executed, but in this case it appears that they were summarily shot without any trial whatsoever. If that is the case then that's a war crime.
This puts us in a weird predicament. The NKR isn't technically part of Armenia. Are all NKR soldiers to be regarded as irregulars even if they're in uniform and acting for all practical purposes as an actual military? If so that opens the door on mass executing prisoners from the Armenian side if they fought under the NKR rather then the Armenian regular military...
 

Beholder

Active Member
This puts us in a weird predicament. The NKR isn't technically part of Armenia. Are all NKR soldiers to be regarded as irregulars even if they're in uniform and acting for all practical purposes as an actual military? If so that opens the door on mass executing prisoners from the Armenian side if they fought under the NKR rather then the Armenian regular military...
They are lawful combatant, no predicament.
As long as "they're in uniform and acting for all practical purposes as an actual military".

P.S. Another thing is even if they were unlawful, still can't be executed without trial.
 
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Beholder

Active Member
Another ballistic missile strike(i think there were several, but don't known what other locations hit) from Armenia to Azerbajdzhan. On city Ganja. Building hit.
 

SolarWind

Active Member
...Shelling of Stepanakert has continued even after the strike, and one of Aliev's advisers issued a statement suggesting that targets inside Armenia may be struck in response to this attack. This would of course, at least potentially, trigger the CSTO and could bring Russia into the fight, as well as other CSTO allies (though how many others would be willing and able to jump in questionable). Please note, there is disagreement about where the strike originated with Armenia claiming it came from inside the NKR while Azerbaijan claims it came from Armenia...
Armenia is the de-jure aggressor here because the NK is de-jure Azerbaijani. Russia's involvement along existing treaties and alliances will not be forced as long as it can show that Armenia (not NK) fired first on Azerbaijan before Azerbaijan fired on Armenia (not NK), which is most likely the case, given that Armenia has been defending NK from Azerbaijan, where NK has been de-facto Armenia. Otherwise, Russia's intervention is extremely unlikely because they are friends with Azerbaijanis, except in the case where Armenia's de-jure territory is invaded, and even in that case it is not clear at what stage and in what way Russia would be willing to intervene, especially given recent "orange" revolt in Armenia.
 
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ngatimozart

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They are lawful combatant, no predicament.
As long as "they're in uniform and acting for all practical purposes as an actual military".

P.S. Another thing is even if they were unlawful, still can't be executed without trial.
No, they have to be lawful combatants of a sovereign state. Any one can wear a uniform. That doesn't make them a lawful combatant. If you use your argument that legitimises most terrorist groups.
 
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