Nagorniy Karabakh

[Feanor]

Update.

Oryx Blog has released their own count of verified vehicles losses from both sides. This should be treated as the bottom number. The short version;

Armenia - 8 T-72s, 5 BMPs (1 and 2), 3 Strela-10, and 6 Osa.
Azerbaijan - 8 T-72s (including some damaged and abandoned), 7 BMPs (1 and 2), 1 BTR-82A, 1 IMR-2 (possibly IMR-3), and 1 Mi-8 helo.

The Fight For Nagorno-Karabakh: Documenting Losses On The Sides Of Armenia And Azerbaijan

www.oryxspioenkop.com

Azerbaijan has begun using TOS-1 and BM-30s in the NKR.

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A tentative map of current Azeri gains in the NKR, in green.

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More footage of UAV strikes and Armenians shooting up Azeri armored formations.

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Продолжение боев на границе

Уже ясно, что блицкрига не вышло, армянская сторона показывает дежурные видео с погромом танков, азербайджанская с налетами Байрактаров на позиции артиллерии. Азербайджан -

andrei-bt.livejournal.com

At the bottom of this lengthy post there is some footage of an alleged Armenian position overrun by the Azeris.

Бои в Карабахе. 28.09.2020. Вечер

Коротко о развитии событий в Карабахе на вечер 28 сентября. 1. За сегодня победных реляций у Азербайджана куда меньше. После серьезных потерь 27 сентября, сегодня особо масштабного продвижения азербайджанцы не имели, что впрочем не мешало им нести потери от огня армян, которые заявили очередную…

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There don't appear to be any major movements at this time, since the initial push yesterday. It's also possible of course that movement has happened and we just don't have confirmation yet.

EDIT: An interesting video of Azeri troops moving towards the front line in trucks and light armor.

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[Sandhi Yudha]

According the Armenian foreign ministry an Armenian aircaft is shot down by a Turkish airforce jetfighter, and they also tell that the pilot of the Su-25 lost his life after being hit by the Turkish F-16 in Armenian air space.

No evidences yet and Turkey denies it, but of its true, then we have moved to another level in this conflict.

Armenia says its fighter jet 'shot down by Turkey'

Armenia says its SU-25 fighter jet was shot down in Armenian air space, a claim Turkey denies.

www.bbc.com

Nagorno-Karabakhs self-proclaimed authorities said 87 of their military personnel had been killed and 120 wounded since the fighting began on Sunday, according to the Armenpress news agency.
They put the number of deaths on the Azerbaijani side at nearly 400, saying that one aircraft, four helicopters and a number of tanks had been destroyed.

Azerbaijan has released no figures on its military casualties, but says 12 civilians were killed by Armenian fire.

 

[Feanor]

Heavy fighting continues but it's not clear who is winning. On the one hand Azerbaijan keeps losing armor and personnel in assaults on Armenian positions. On the other hand they're destroying considerable quantities of Armenian armor and air-defense. It's possible that Azerbaijan is stalled and unable to gain ground, but it's also possible that they have a favorable exchange rate, and can afford to keep this up longer then the Armenians (who have considerably less money and manpower). Here's a fresh batch of footage with little clarity.

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Война в Карабахе. Видео. 29.09.2020

Видео боевых действий в Карабахе за 29 сентября. На вечер 29 сентября стороны заявляют большие потери в людях и технике с обеих сторон. Армения заявила несколько сбитых дронов и вертолет. Очень активно применяются тяжелая артиллерия, РСЗО, беспилотники. ОТРК Армения пока не применяла. По сбитому…

colonelcassad.livejournal.com

Очередные видео

Какой-то совершенно мутный день в плане околотанковых новостей с границы. Очередные мутные видео, никакой конкретики. Интернет там перекрыт. Обстрел танков, вероятно еще вчерашний. И пехоты: И поражение воздушной цели: Набили несколько БЛА и пару кукурузников. Азербайджанские источники…

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In an interesting bit of news, Azeri sources claim that this is a video of the destroyed Armenian S-300 command post. But I honestly can't tell...

Есть видеоподтверждение уничтожения армянского С-300 израильским дроном-камикадзе

gurkhan.blogspot.com

There are reports of ~5 thousand Armenian reservists arriving in the NKR.

Коротко по Карабаху. 29.09.2020

Коротко о развитии событий в Карабахе. 1. Азербайджан начал обстрелы непосредственно территории Армении. В районе Вардениса был поражен автобус с гражданскими. Азербайджан оправдывается тем, что в автобусе якобы были военные. МО Армении объявило, что после ударов по армянской территории и…

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Armenia also alleges that one of the their Su-25s was shot down by a Turkish F-16, in Armenian airspace, and the pilot is KIA. However so far no footage of the wreckage. It's important to note that some Turkish F-16s flew to Azerbaijan for training exercises, and may still be in Azerbaijan.

Турецкий F-16 сбил армянский Су-25

МО Армении сообщает, что турецкий истребитель F-16 вылетевший с авиабазы Гянджа сбил армянский Су-25. Армянский пилот погиб. Машина была сбита в воздушном пространстве Армении. Фактически, это является уже открытым нападением Турции на Армению, которая получает формальный повод обратиться в ОДКБ за…

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There's also information that Iran shot down an unknown UAV near the Azerbaijan border.

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[OPSSG]

Armenia also alleges that one of the their Su-25s was shot down by a Turkish F-16, in Armenian airspace, and the pilot is KIA. However so far no footage of the wreckage. It's important to note that some Turkish F-16s flew to Azerbaijan for training exercises, and may still be in Azerbaijan.

In this case, I believe Turkey and Azerbaijan who have rejected the claim from the Armenian Ministry of Defense that a Turkish F-16 shot down an Armenian Su-25 over Armenia proper.

If there are still F-16s in Azerbaijan, Russia or others can release satellite images to support the Armenian claim. Have F-16 images with time stamps been released?

 

[Feanor]

In this case, I believe Turkey and Azerbaijan who have rejected the claim from the Armenian Ministry of Defense that a Turkish F-16 shot down an Armenian Su-25 over Armenia proper.

If there are still F-16s in Azerbaijan, Russia or others can release satellite images to support the Armenian claim. Have F-16 images with time stamps been released?

Nothing has been released and the Azeri side is actually claiming that two Su-25 crashed into the side of a mountain. We have some photos from the crash site, but not enough to definitively state much. At least as far as I can tell.

Sorry I'm a little slow on posting updates. I'll try to get another big post out tonight, if not then tomorrow morning.

Обломки армянского Су-25

Обломки армянского штурмовика Су-25 сбитого вчера по утверждению МО Армении F-16 турецких ВВС вылетевшего с азербайджанского аэродрома в Гяндже. Погибшего пилота звали Валерий Данелин. Азербайджан и Турция отрицают причастность F-16 к уничтожению штурмовика. По версии Азербайджана, якобы 2…

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EDIT: I have not seen anything to be released. It's entirely possible something will surface sometime soon. Unless of course the Azeris are right and it was a crash into a mountain side. In which case we probably won't get much from the Armenians.

EDIT2: Ok obviously not today... tomorrow morning.

 

[swerve]

In this case, I believe Turkey and Azerbaijan who have rejected the claim from the Armenian Ministry of Defense that a Turkish F-16 shot down an Armenian Su-25 over Armenia proper.

If there are still F-16s in Azerbaijan, Russia or others can release satellite images to support the Armenian claim. Have F-16 images with time stamps been released?

Turkish F-16s wouldn't need to be based in Azerbaijan to shoot down Armenian Su-25s. Unless Armenian air defences are too good to allow it, they could fly from Turkey.

 

[Feanor]

Update.

There are reports of an Azeri air strike in the NKR, and the Turkish TV footage even shows something that might be a parachute opening.

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More battle footage from both sides, the almost-traditional arty exchanges, UAV strikes on Armenian targets, and Azeri armor getting hit. The only major novelty is the destruction of a relatively modern Armenian EW system, third link. Fair warning links 4 and 5 contain graphic imagery.

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Бои в Карабахе. Видео. 30.09.2020

Видео боевых действий в Карабахе 30.09.2020 На фоне отсутствия серьезного продвижения азербайджанской армии, стороны демонстрируют десятки убитых с обеих сторон и уничтоженную технику. Сражение все больше походит на мясорубку, где армии перемалывают живую силу и технику друг друга. Ключевой вопрос,…

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На фронте без перемен

Картинка не поменялась. Армяне показывают убитих военных Азербайджана, Азербайджан показывает видео с БЛА... Кадры с отстплением азербайджанских военных: и Азербайджан показывает фото с дрона: Не пойму как они, зная о постоянно шаржирующих камикадзе продолжают собираться в…

andrei-bt.livejournal.com

Also in at least one case Azerbaijan appears to have found a decoy target, which raises questions about how many of the strikes were against decoys. Some are obviously real targets but some could be fake.

Азербайджанские дроны – камикадзе уничтожают фанерные макеты ЗРК "Оса"

gurkhan.blogspot.com

It appears the NKR captured at least one BMP-2 from the Azeris.

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There are claims by Azerbaijan that Armenia used a Tochka system, firing 3 missiles none of which exploded. However photo evidence is lacking, and Armenia denies this.

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Some materials on Syrian fighters being used in the war by Azerbaijan.

Syrian rebel fighters prepare to deploy to Azerbaijan in sign of Turkey’s ambition
Témoignages exclusifs : les mercenaires syriens d'Erdogan se déploient au Haut Karabakh
Nagorno-Karabakh clashes: Turkey sends Syrian mercenaries into combat against Armenians

There's also information that Iran is moving troops towards their border with Armenia and Azerbaijan. There also appears to be Russian military cargo for Armenia moving through Iran, so far just trucks.

Иран и новое обострение армяно-азербайджанского конфликта

Для Ирана новое обострение армяно-азербайджанского конфликта является крайне неприятным. У Ирана традиционно хорошие отношения с Арменией, да и с Азербайджаном отношения заметно улучшились за последние годы. Учитывая живущих в Иране миллионы азербайджанцев и многотысячную армянскую общину, а…

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Passenger and transport aircraft have been spotted flying from Libya and Israel to Azerbaijan. The flights from Israel involved Il-76s from Silk Way airlines.

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[wsb05]

Looks like Azeris have the edge but at great cost for both parties.
TB2 and Israeli loitering munitions are proving successful.
Any idea about the EW capabilities of both parties?

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Although the fighting started 6 days ago, there is no much news about it.
Hopefully it will calm down and end soon.

Nagorno-Karabakh conflict: Stepanakert struck by missile

The strike in the city of Stepanakert comes as fighting over the disputed region continues for a sixth day.

www.bbc.com

 

[Feanor]

Update.

We have close ups of the destroyed truck column through which BMP-3s were seen moving earlier. It was earlier unclear who it belongs to but it now appears fairly likely that this is an Armenian troop column, and it lends credence to Azeri claims of some territorial gains. On the other hand the initial footage was from very early in the fighting (day 1 I think) so it meshes well with some initial gains by the Azeris.

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An entire platoon of Azeri infantry wiped out. Given how close together they are, it's possible they were ambushed. Warning graphic imagery.

Военный Осведомитель

Группа азербайджанских военнослужащих была убита на фронте в Карабахе. «НКР» не указало на каком именно направлении фронта.

t.me

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Footage of Armenian soldiers allegedly capturing an Azeri position. It's possible they're recapturing a position they themselves lost earlier.

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Footage of Azeri troops on a captured Armenian position, allegedly.

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Armenian D-20s firing.

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More footage of UAV strikes. Be aware the Azeris have on several occasions uploaded the same strike filmed by a different UAV from a different angle so the number of videos isn't necessarily reflective of the number of strikes actually carried out.

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Footage of the Armenian S-300 firing on UAVs. Different sources claim they downed 3 or 4 UAVs. This may or may not be it's first official combat use, for the type as a whole, and there a reports that a civilian Georgian cargo plane was almost shot down during this incident.

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С-300 под Ереваном сбили 3 БПЛА

Сообщается, что в районе Еревана ведут огонь комплексы ПВО С-300. По заявлению Пашиняна, в районе Котайка и Гегаркюника силами узла ПВО Еревана сбиты 3 из 4 дронов вторгшихся в воздушное пространство Армении. Отмечается, что это первое боевое применение С-300 в условиях полномасштабной войны, хотя…

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Images of allegedly an Azeri Lora IRBM striking a bridge.

Предположительно применение Азербайджаном ОТР LORA

2 октября 2020 г. появилось видео, на котором предположительно фигурирует первое известное боевое применение Азербайджаном, приобретенных им ранее израильских оперативно-тактических ракет LORA . В данном случае целью стал мост через реку Хакари (Акера) на одной из дорог связывающих…

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An Azeri Harop UAV crashed.

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Assorted footage from the war, including images of what may be a second BTR-82A destroyed or damaged.

Война в Карабахе. Видео. 02.10.2020

Видео боевых действий в Карабахе 2 октября 2020 года. Позиция азербайджанской армии отбитая армянами. Приличное кол-во трупов, которых судя по всему накрыло артиллерийским огнем. Разрушения в селе Мец Масрик Разрушения в Степанакерте. Оттуда же. Почему стороны не показывают пленных (спойлер -…

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Коротко по Карабаху. 02.10.2020

Уничтоженный азербайджанский Т-90С Коротко по Карабаху. Азербайджан заявил, что смог занять несколько высот на границе с Карабахом, впрочем не сильно конкретизируя свои достижения. Армяне это отрицают, заявляя еще 1 уничтоженный самолет и дрон за первую половину 2 октября. Бомбардировке подверглись…

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Боевые действия в Карабахе. Видео. 01.10.2020

Видео боевых действий в Нагорном Карабахе 1 октября 2020 года. За сегодня стороны заявили от нескольких десятков до нескольких сотен убитых и раненых с обеих сторон, а также несколько десятков единиц различной техники. Кол-во видео подтверждающих эти заявления существенно меньше. Кроме того Армения…

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An interesting shot of what is allegedly an Armenian T-72 with no ERA.

Беззащитны для ПТУР: не все армянские Т-72 получили "реактивную броню"

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An Armenian soldier with a Igla MANPADS.

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Footage of captured Armenian vehicles.

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Footage of a captured Azeri T-90A.

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Armenians showing off captured BMP-2s.

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An Azeri soldier posing with the battle flag of the Armenian 193 engineers assault btln.

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Armenia has announced they're ready to negotiate. This comes right after they've accused Azerbaijan of striking Stepanakert with ballistic missiles.

Армения объявила о готовности начать переговоры по прекращению огня в Карабахе

Ереван готов присоединиться к странам - сопредседателям Минской группы ОБСЕ для восстановления режима прекращения огня на основе соглашений 1994−1995 годов. В свою очередь Минобороны непризнанной НКР не видит никаких тенденций для прекращения огня в Нагорном Карабахе.

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Армения обвинила Азербайджан в ударе по Степанакерту баллистическими ракетами

Представитель Минобороны Армении Арцрун Ованнисян, находящийся в столице непризнанной НКР, сообщил, что азербайджанцами нанесено множество повреждений гражданским инфраструктурам и Спасательной службе. В Армении в пятницу заявили о готовности начать переговоры по прекращению огня.

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A satellite image of Azeri An-2s that are presumed to be used as unmanned decoys intended to force IADS GBAD to reveal itself or serve as decoy targets.

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An interesting photo of steel cables pulled across a gorge in the NKR, intended to cause aircraft to crash in the dark.

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5 shells from the fighting fell in neighboring Iran, and wounded a 6 year old child.

В Иране первый пострадавший из-за нынешнего армяно-азербайджанского конфликта

Очередные пять шальных снарядов из района боев между азербайджанскими и армянскими войсками перелетели через границу с Ираном и упали в районе одного из приграничных иранских сел в провинции Восточный Азербайджан. Два из них разорвались в самом селе, в результате чего ранения получил…

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Battle damage to a civilian residece in the NKR, resulting from Smerch munitions.

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[OPSSG]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1310972911595843584

Watching videos from this battle has this former conscript terrified at the prevalence of loitering munitions — where even dug in positions are not safe (which was also shared earlier).

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1311968266512994304

Israeli made LORA used in war by the Azerbaijani military. This is a deadly capability with a range of 400km (250 miles) and a CEP of 10m. Very effective against static targets, like the bridge that was destroyed in the video.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1312193006271754240

According to SIPRI, Israel provided Azerbaijan with some US$825 million in weapons between 2006 and 2019; including Israeli made Harop loitering munitions.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1311717273657376774

Moves of the diplomatic front by Armenia against Israel’s supply of advanced weapons to Azerbaijan.

 

[ngatimozart]

Video and other commentary posted by The Drive of the LORA BM strike.

Video Points To Azerbaijan's First Use Of Israeli-Made Ballistic Missile Against Armenia

Both sides have various types of ballistic missiles and Azerbaijan's use of these weapons, if confirmed, could prompt a major escalation.

www.thedrive.com

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Video and other commentary posted by The Drive of the LORA BM strike.

Video Points To Azerbaijan's First Use Of Israeli-Made Ballistic Missile Against Armenia

Both sides have various types of ballistic missiles and Azerbaijan's use of these weapons, if confirmed, could prompt a major escalation.

www.thedrive.com

If Azerbaijan starts to use the LORA, than the chance is quite big that Armenia will do the same with the Iskander M (or E?)

 

[SolarWind]

It is actually beginning to look like Azerbaijan might take at least some of the Nagorno-Karabah this time. The Iskanders in Armenia, do they actually belong to Armenia, or are just part of Russian military base? I think if Armenia used Iskander against targets in Azerbaijan, it would be a major escalation because so far, Nagorno-Karabah, where LORA was used, has declared independence but has not been annexed by Armenia, so not formally a part of Armenia. In my opinion, the escalation would open door to an all out war between Azerbaijan and Armenia with possible direct open involvement by third parties.

 

[Feanor]

It is actually beginning to look like Azerbaijan might take at least some of the Nagorno-Karabah this time. The Iskanders in Armenia, do they actually belong to Armenia, or are just part of Russian military base? I think if Armenia used Iskander against targets in Azerbaijan, it would be a major escalation because so far, Nagorno-Karabah, where LORA was used, has declared independence but has not been annexed by Armenia, so not formally a part of Armenia. In my opinion, the escalation would open door to an all out war between Azerbaijan and Armenia with possible direct open involvement by third parties.

Armenia has received at least two Iskander TELs of their own. It's an open question whether this is an Iskander-M, or an Iskander-E. And it remains to be seen how this ends. For example, just how many UAVs, especially loitering munitions, do the Azeris have? How many are they losing to air defense (kinetic and electronic) vs. how many are being used up to hit targets? I strongly suspect that if Azerbaijan runs out of loitering munitions, and their UAV pool gets low enough, they could end up losing ground. There's already some evidence that the Armenians have re-captured some lost ground.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

T

It is actually beginning to look like Azerbaijan might take at least some of the Nagorno-Karabah this time. The Iskanders in Armenia, do they actually belong to Armenia, or are just part of Russian military base? I think if Armenia used Iskander against targets in Azerbaijan, it would be a major escalation because so far, Nagorno-Karabah, where LORA was used, has declared independence but has not been annexed by Armenia, so not formally a part of Armenia. In my opinion, the escalation would open door to an all out war between Azerbaijan and Armenia with possible direct open involvement by third parties.

They belong to the Armenian Army.

Vedomosti: Russia shipped four Iskander missile systems to Armenia

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[Feanor]

Update.

We can start to evaluate some of the territorial gains claimed by Azerbaijan, it appears they have made some gains in the north-east and the south-east. In the north-east they claim to be inside the Magadiz village, though Armenian and NKR sources deny this, allowing us to fix the front line either right in front or right behind this point. Also it appears that the bridge the Azeris struck with an IRBM is still standing, through damaged.

In the meantime there are reports of an Armenian government plane landing in Moscow, and Pashinyan, the prime minister of Armenia, issued a statement suggesting that Russian peacekeepers could be brought in to separate the sides. This would of course favor Armenia since it would make it impossible for Azerbaijan to escalate the conflict without running into Russia directly.

Коротко по Карабаху. 03.10.2020

Ближе к вечеру 3 октября Алиев объявил ,что азербайджанская армия смогла взять поселок Мадигиз на границе НКР и Азербайджана. Соответственно, на вечер 3 октября, Азербайджан претендует на захват 5-6 поселков на юго-востоке Карабаха, нескольких высот в районе Муровдага, нескольких высот на…

colonelcassad.livejournal.com

Пашинян готов к вводу российских миротворцев в Карабах

Ереван готов обсудить в рамках Минской группы ОБСЕ вопрос введения российских миротворцев в Нагорный Карабах. Об этом 3 октября заявил премьер-министр Армении Никол Пашинян Русские защищают армян от турок. Где-то я это уже видел. -)

colonelcassad.livejournal.com

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diana-mihailova.livejournal.com

Azerbaijan has been using their Israeli LAR-160 MLRS.

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diana-mihailova.livejournal.com

There are some indications that 2 T-90s have been captured by Armenia.

Новости с полей

В последние дни картинка с границы НКР и Азербайджана изменилась, с стороны Армении показывают убитых военных в больших количествах, такие кадры не очень приятно смотреть, Азербайджан опять атаки дронов. С той и другой столоны имеют места подделки. Из тематического захват Арменией…

andrei-bt.livejournal.com

 

[OPSSG]

If Azerbaijan starts to use the LORA, than the chance is quite big that Armenia will do the same with the Iskander M (or E?)

Depends on target set (as not all targets are suitable for a BM strike), in 2016 Armenia became the first buyer of the Iskander-E.

LORA works as advertised but the target still stands — which IIRC has 3 types of warheads, including high-speed penetration that may be the one used against this 10 metre bridge target. As I said, not all targets are suitable for a BM strike. Given that the bridge has a span of 10 metres, if the middle was set as the impact point, 5 metres of bridge each way, at least 2 metres of the bridge appears gone, we can estimate that LORA hit 3 metres from aim point (with a margin of error +/- 1 metres in these estimates).

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1312446773235867649

Azerbaijan has the option of using the BM-30 Smerch 300mm MLRS and the Polonez 300mm MLRS to service targets as well but these are even more inaccurate.

 

[Feanor]

Updates.

We have confirmation, Magadiz has fallen to the Azeris. While this is a minor population center that isn't significant in and of itself, it represents a tangible territorial gain, and it will be hard to dislodge the Azeris from this position. It also strongly suggests that despite major losses, Azerbaijan is willing to keep pushing forward, and I think they can afford the casualties much better then Armenia can.

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More Azeri UAV strikes, and footage of Armenian arty working, including a rare KS-19 AAA being used presumably against ground targets.

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Photos of an Armenian strong point, and POWs presumably captured there.

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[Sandhi Yudha]

Updates.

More Azeri UAV strikes, and footage of Armenian arty working, including a rare KS-19 AAA

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Amazing to see such piece of antique is still used in conflicts.
The reporter knew that the gun will be fired, and still he was panicking.... :-D