Had to read it for Adult Matric over forty years ago. Very dry but educational.
Regarding railway gauges, the only significant change of gauge is at Brisbane, these days. There is a dual gauge line to the port of Brisbane. But, if one wanted to send an armoured unit to Townsville by train, there would be a change of trains at Brisbane. Boogie changing facilities are available.
All other militarily signification locations are accessible via the standard gauge network. I am not confident that the marshalling yard or wagon capacity would cope well with wartime traffic volumes.
Something that might be of interest is that the narrow gauge is 3’6”. This gauge is common in the Far East, NZ, Indonesia, Japan, Vietnam, and I think Taiwan, all use this gauge. So motive power or rolling stock could be moved between those systems if it was necessary. Malaysia and Thailand use meter gauge, I believe.
Edit: correction. Vietnam is actually meter gauge. The Philippines is 3’6” gauge
Edit: further thoughts. I am not sure about loading gauge differences between the various 3’6” national systems. I know that NZ got some locos from the Philippines and that Japan has donated some suburban sets to Indonesia with no apparent problems. Using US locos or rolling stock on the Australian standard gauge system would be restricted to the two desert mainlines due to clearance issues.
All other militarily signification locations are accessible via the standard gauge network. I am not confident that the marshalling yard or wagon capacity would cope well with wartime traffic volumes.
Something that might be of interest is that the narrow gauge is 3’6”. This gauge is common in the Far East, NZ, Indonesia, Japan, Vietnam, and I think Taiwan, all use this gauge. So motive power or rolling stock could be moved between those systems if it was necessary. Malaysia and Thailand use meter gauge, I believe.
Edit: correction. Vietnam is actually meter gauge. The Philippines is 3’6” gauge
Edit: further thoughts. I am not sure about loading gauge differences between the various 3’6” national systems. I know that NZ got some locos from the Philippines and that Japan has donated some suburban sets to Indonesia with no apparent problems. Using US locos or rolling stock on the Australian standard gauge system would be restricted to the two desert mainlines due to clearance issues.
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Following on from railways, Australia doesn’t seem to have much of a merchant marine capacity anymore. The sale of the ANL was a strategic blunder in my view but typical of the short term thinking back in the ‘90’s.
The only regional shipping line I can find is the Pacific Forum Line, owned by several Pacific states with NZ as a major contributor. There are five tramp freighters in the fleet which would be ideal for supporting amphibious operations. It would be a bit mean to take those ships given the Island nation’s depend on them. What would the possibility be for Australia to join the Pacific Forum Line group and add some more ships to it in order to start building up local merchant capacity?
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The only regional shipping line I can find is the Pacific Forum Line, owned by several Pacific states with NZ as a major contributor. There are five tramp freighters in the fleet which would be ideal for supporting amphibious operations. It would be a bit mean to take those ships given the Island nation’s depend on them. What would the possibility be for Australia to join the Pacific Forum Line group and add some more ships to it in order to start building up local merchant capacity?
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This lines up with renewed focus on the pacific.
Along with investment in industry, additional shipping capacity could provide a much needed boost to local economies.
There was a time when Burns Philp, Carpenters and Swire had a thriving passenger and general cargo service throughout the Pacific, general cargo out, plantation products back. They could be seen loading either at Walsh Bay or at Circular Quay.
Expat families used the service when air travel was in its infancy to places such as Fiji and New Guinea. There were legendary tales of these cruises being one giant party.
Sadly that’s all gone for one simple reason, the MAritime Union of Australia. Wage demands were so outrageous that anything other than the high value cargoes such as oil and gas made the service uneconomical.
Any return of that service could only occur if foreign crews were used and even then the port labour costs in Australia make that marginal.
The days of government subsidies for private shipping are over.
What would be possible though is that the ships could be Australian owned but foreign flagged with foreign crew. In an emergency they could be commandeered into government service if required.
The proposed Pacific aid ship, yet to be announced, would be feasible in the same way that Our quasi naval ships are chartered to an operator and port costs are contained by using naval facilities.
I have noticed a trend of PNG related news filtering into the mainstream media latley.
Most of it about crime or poverty.
I am predicting that the ADF will be tasked to intervene in the not too distant future, due to the the way the stories ate tricked in ......sway public opinion first.
PNG Police storm Parliament over lack of APEC payments, ABC understands - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)
Most of it about crime or poverty.
I am predicting that the ADF will be tasked to intervene in the not too distant future, due to the the way the stories ate tricked in ......sway public opinion first.
PNG Police storm Parliament over lack of APEC payments, ABC understands - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)
PNG is inherently unstable. It’s a country of over 700 language groups where loyalty to “Won Toks” (one talks/tribal groups) is the single most important principle and overrides politics and everything else.
Being elected to Parliament is simply an opportunity to help your tribe.
Further, there are lawless gangs (Rascals) who are totally uncontrolled by the police who themselves are often called “Rascals in uniform”.
Then there is the constant competition for influence between the Army and the Police which is ongoing-rezferred to in you article.
Given all of the above every observer of that country has little doubt that Australian intervention will some day become a reality.
The surprise is that PNG has lasted so long, that is if you disregard the disintegration of the country when Bougainville decided it wanted independence.
Pretty spot on assement.
I know a bit about the place myself
Trained some PNG grunts in the 90,s.
It is falling apart ATM, the link I attached is just an example, Its not a particularly important link, just an example of how the media is preparing the public for the inevitable.
More recently, there was a disturbance where the police actually turned against the Army, and used CS gas against them. PNG has a population of about 6 million, very divided people.
Poverty is terrible, and crime is out of control. Disease is rampant, and its getting very close to an intervention.
The proposed Navy presence (and no doubt Intell/SF) is well timed, and I suspect more than just message to China.
I know a bit about the place myself
Trained some PNG grunts in the 90,s.
It is falling apart ATM, the link I attached is just an example, Its not a particularly important link, just an example of how the media is preparing the public for the inevitable.
More recently, there was a disturbance where the police actually turned against the Army, and used CS gas against them. PNG has a population of about 6 million, very divided people.
Poverty is terrible, and crime is out of control. Disease is rampant, and its getting very close to an intervention.
The proposed Navy presence (and no doubt Intell/SF) is well timed, and I suspect more than just message to China.
The notion that "the media" is preparing the public is a nonsense. I have been reading similar stories in all the major papers and on commercial and public TV for decades, indeed, since I was still in the Army thirty years ago. The idea that the Murdoch press, Fairfax and the ABC could cooperate on something for that long is just rubbish. It's their job to report what happens in and around our country. PNG is important in that area and they do nothing more than a little editorialising - rather a miracle these days. But beyond that, most Australians wouldn't read a paper or watch a news bulletin if their life depended on it. You gotta have a podcast, and dancing monkeys, and maybe a cute puppy on twatter
That said, it is clear that PNG is a mess, and it's getting worse despite repeated non-military interventions. We may do something.
oldsig
King Wally
Active Member
The other concern about PNG is it's physical environment combined with lack of infrastructure. If things did hit the fan it would be one of the worst places on earth to try and stamp out an insurgency or civil war. Miles upon miles of endless mountains, jungles, and dirt tracks just waiting for the rain to turn them to slush.
Redlands18
Well-Known Member
Yes I doubt the Australian Army has any wish to re-fight the Kokoda campaign, once a Millennium would suffice.
buffy9
Well-Known Member
I think the many tribes would be hard pressed to unite and wage a prolonged insurgency. Tribal conflict has been a problem in the past and was reported as recently as the Highlands earthquake last year:
The old ways are gone: Papua New Guinea’s tribal wars become more destructive
PNG earthquake: Women and children facing 'double trauma' from quake and tribal fighting - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)
In addition we have the airlift and airmobile capabilities to reach some of the more isolated areas where we could interact more closely with the tribes and make concessions. The new C-27J and CH-47F are two platforms that come to mind.
That being said insurgency is not out of the question. It is already occurring in West Papua with an Afghanistan like situation (many jointed and disjointed tribes uniting against "invaders") potentially occurring if Australia is perceived as a a coloniser. This would particularly be the case if Australia attempted to support mining operations, which have historically not been accepted without resistance - particularly in the case of Bougainville and Panguna Mine.
PNG has survived until now without major issue and this has seemed to suit Australia just fine. I don't see this changing unless foreign influence becomes a problem. China's strategy doesn't seem to support this, though the potential is there. If we were to intervene and it did become a problem, this would also pave a way for further expansion of influence into West Papua as PNG rebels may support or ally with West Papua separatists.
I only see an intervention occurring if PNG becomes a problem. This could range from allignment with China to the rise of piracy/unified insurgency that could cause a problem for shipping. While a more stable PNG could be suitable for investment, the problem of getting it to this level is not worth the trouble.
I could go on but I think I got my points across. Intervention is possibly and maybe even more likely now with the rise of China, but unless there is a sizable change in the PNG political/military/economic environment an intervention is still unlikely. This is because we simply have for the most accepted their issues and moved on, rather than solving them.
Plus the volatile "Bougainville problem" is coming up this year. Assets will need to be ready for this and the problems it coulf cause if PNG rejects the outcome.
Old SIG, when I say the "media" it includes all forms of media, Facebook etc.
If you think that Governments and agencies do not use the media to sway public opinion, then you are very naive.
I could post examples here, but then risk being shouted down by people who call conspiracy, when in fact, it happens regularly.
I'll give one example.
When Abbott was making ground regarding the mining tax, all of a sudden, an ABC program aired the "cruelty to cattle" fiasco. That changed the subject, and the mining tax became a minor news story as every outlet went with the cattle story.
It did no harm to the then labor government, most effected were National party voters.
There are plenty of "Topic changers" and opinion changers out there that were manufactured by or pushed by government agencies.....I'll ride with you is another.....
If you think that Governments and agencies do not use the media to sway public opinion, then you are very naive.
I could post examples here, but then risk being shouted down by people who call conspiracy, when in fact, it happens regularly.
I'll give one example.
When Abbott was making ground regarding the mining tax, all of a sudden, an ABC program aired the "cruelty to cattle" fiasco. That changed the subject, and the mining tax became a minor news story as every outlet went with the cattle story.
It did no harm to the then labor government, most effected were National party voters.
There are plenty of "Topic changers" and opinion changers out there that were manufactured by or pushed by government agencies.....I'll ride with you is another.....
If PNG separatists ally with West Papua resistant groups, then that will create cross border tensions with Indonesia, with PNG and Australia, if Australia is present in PNG in force.
IIRC the Bougainville separatists didn't and still don't want a bar of Australian involvement because of Australia's colonial history within New Guinea and it's alleged involvement with the mining companies. The peace agreement that was reached last time is called the Burnham Agreement because it was reached at Burnham Army Camp, Canterbury, NZ. That was because it was a RNZN warship (think it was Monowai) that sailed to Bougainville, with a Maori culture group going ashore helping break the ice, leading to NZG negotiations to act as intermediaries in the peace process and offer neutral venues for the talks. Something like this may have to happen again with NZ being the good cop and Australia being the bad cop.
It was hard enough in WW2 for the allies, to fight and chase the Japanese out of New Guinea and if Japan had a half decent logistics train from Truk, then it could've been a completely different story, especially if they had succeeded in taking Port Moresby. Also their best troops and equipment were in Manchuria facing north towards Russia. As far as the Imperial Japanese Army was concerned, Russia was the main enemy and hence why it had always planned and prepared for way there. The Asian and Pacific war was an afterthought and they were ill prepared for it with very little planning and hardly any logistical planning.
Imagine trying to fight New Guinea forces, both regular and irregular, in their own country. No thanks. I saw PNG Army SNCO's and Fijian Army SNCO's fight each other one night in the SNCO's mess at a RNZAF SNCO's mess after a night on the fire water. No way was anybody stepping in to break that one up.
I think it is an idea that is worth exploring. But let’s not assume success.
The PFL is controlled by 12 governments with one vote each, regardless of size or contribution. As a consequence, they might not agree to cooperate with us.
Let’s look at our policy objectives and think about how realistic they are.
1/ join to take the financial burden of NZ - 100% chance of success
2/ employ more Pacific Islanders in shipping industry jobs - 100% chance again?
3/ fill gaps in our ship building program with the odd merchant ship - if we subsidised it, 75% chance?
4/ get maintenance done in Australia - only happen if the gov subsidised it. Currently China and SG get the contracts
5/ ships available in wartime to support military operations - I rather expect many of the other governments involved might not be so keen on this idea.
So we need to decide how high to set our sights. It would be better to have merchant marine capacity under direct national control.
I think we should give it a try but it might turn out only object 1 and 2 are achievable. If we added more ships to the fleet, in excess of minimum capacity, we really would want them available in emergencies. How wise is it to spend our money here? Best to feel out the possible to start with.
It is worthwhile reminding people of the delicate nature of politics in the region. Both Australia and America have a habit of assuming their weight will solve any problems. This doesn’t always result in the best outcome.
One of those delicate issues is the question of Irian Jaya. There is strong support for the West Papuans in the South Pacific. But it is a conflict the Australian government would rather not be involved with. A war with Indonesia is not something to be taken lightly. I guess the same reasoning lays behind PNG’s lack of commitment. No idea why Fiji doesn’t back the West Papuans.
Pacific Forum backs ‘constructive engagement’ over West Papua | Asia Pacific Report
Of course, Australia’s lack of resolve regarding Irian Jaya hasn’t won us much support in the S Pacific.
Anyway, the big problem in PNG is population growth far exceeds economic development, particularly in the highlands. This problem may well be unsolvable and so PNG might end up a failed state in a decade or two. I am interested in hearing any ideas about what could be done in the highlands.
I am more optimistic about keeping the Polynesian states stable and maybe that is where we should put most of our effort. But it has to be a long term project. NZ has the experience here and it will be essential to work closely with Wellington.
Swire are still there with CNCo running the Chief Container Service and they have bought out most of the the agencies. They still crew the vessels from Milne Bay but now have a focus on a lot of Chinese junior officers. This appears to have casues some issues as their PSC performance has dropped off.
When I was sailing there I was still comfortable walking around Madang and would walk to the the Yacht Club in Moresby. I would not dare to do that 2 decades latter.
It is a really pity.
I was lucky enough to spend a couple of weeks at a one of PNGs national high schools ( years 11 and 12 ) back in 1979. The school was one of a hand full the country had to provide senior education across the country to those lucky enough to attend. As a national high school it drew students from across the country and as such I shared the dorm with students drawn from the highlands / lowlands and the islands across this new Nation state of PNG.
The student mix was as diverse as the nation but what was evident at the time was a sense of optimism.
In the 70's Australia did not want to be a colonial master and PNG wanted to be a master of it's own destiny. PNG optimism was not matched by the challenge of galvanising together such a diverse group of people to form a nation with such a limited resource of governance.
From such a limited education base of High schools together with two tertiary education centres this new nation state had to full fill all the diverse range of professions needed within a society from trades to professional services. It was not going to happen.
It was a ridiculous situation for any nation and yet PNG is still being held together.
As to the future, well it could go many ways.
The past forty years may point to the future where for all the internal troubles PNG keeps moving forward ever so slowly, but some how manages to keep it all together.
Alternatively it all falls apart and it becomes a failed state in a short amount of time and we have hundreds of thousand of refuges flooding across the Torres straight looking for safety in QLD.
It could go many ways so lets hope for some 70's optimism.
Conflict in Bougainville and the Sandline affair have been dark chapters in PNG's short history, Coupled with recent disturbances, Australia is right to be concerned with her former " colony ".
If PNG does go pear shaped we will be damned if we do nothing and and probably damned if we get involved.
Should boots be needed on the ground, it will be important that the load is shared with regional nations, and that it is not just defence that contributes, but also police and NGO's to bring about a solution to what will be a complex problem.
As to Irian Jaya - just to scary to contemplate.
Regards S
I'm not daft; of course politicians have media advisers and use them to inform (or misinform) the public, but if you infer that the media are being used to prepare for an intervention in PNG you are drawing a very long bow. The nature, and for that matter the frequency of reports of problems in PNG have scarcely changed in 30 years. If the reporting now is the same as then, and the reporting is supposedly to drag the public into a war, who has been around in government for 30 years "preparing" ? And why would the left leaning and right leaning press cooperate when they can't on anything else. And to what end ? Surely the ABC would be right on it to expose a Liberal plot? Or Murdoch to do the same to Labor? You can exclude Facebook and most non broadcast media; there's a reason it's increased there, mostly to do with its absence 30 years ago. On the other hand Facebook, Twitter etc are terrific venues to spread conspiracy theories to the gullible
Correlation is not causation. There are reports now as then because PNG has always suffered from bouts of internal strife. PNG may well go up in flames but let's be realistic about the causes and the actions of external players
oldsig
buffy9
Well-Known Member
Irian Jaya is a major problem. To support it's independence would strain already "off" relations with Indonesia at a time when America wants us both involved with China - as indicated by how relatively closely we worked together at last year's RIMPAC. Not supporting independence serves as only an inconvenience to South Pacific nations which would have West Papua independent. It's a struggle, but the latter is more in Australia's interests as it does not push it's limits.
Climate change is already set to cause a potential refugee nightmare from South Asia with a lack of water leading into famine, conflict and other situations beyond the means of the UN to handle. Refugees would likely try to make their way to Australia, which when compared would be a far greater challenge than the refugee problem only a few years ago. Good time for those OPVs then.
If PNG did become a failed state and create a second refugee "front" North of Queensland, then we are staring down one big problem. This is in addition to the disappearance of smaller Pacific Island nations and growing climate change effects here.
Apologies for the tangent from PNG and Irian Jaya, but it seems pertinent - especially considering discussion a while back of a defence budget above 2% of GDP and the creation of a "border force" several years ago.
Is Asia facing a coming water crisis? - 2018 - IIASA