Indonesian Aero News

[tonnyc]

Sounds great, but they dont give the details about the orders and costumers.
And even if contracts are really signed, by airlines not close to bankruptcy, until now the production capacity of IPTN is maximum 4-6 fixed wing aircrafts a year.

As usual, Indonesian media exaggerates. What was signed at this year's Singapore Air Show are framework agreements, not contracts.

However, I do expect a substantial amount of actual order. Much of the interest comes from credible parties with actual needs and in credible amounts. One exception is Aceh's 50 unit interest, which I expect will get rationalized to some sensible number when it's time to sign an actual contract. Details on who signed the framework agreements and for how many units are actually available scattered in various media articles.

And yes, Indonesian Aerospace's production capacity is a bottleneck. On the other hand this is a small simple plane, the production line could be expanded, the number of shifts doubled, and well, deliveries will be staggered over a period of ten years anyway, not all at once. Even if we assume an initial order of 75 units total, delivering 8 units per year should be possible.

The N-219 is a sensible project with a good chance of moderate success. Some media hype is understandable.

 

[Todjaeger]

As usual, Indonesian media exaggerates. What was signed at this year's Singapore Air Show are framework agreements, not contracts.

However, I do expect a substantial amount of actual order. Much of the interest comes from credible parties with actual needs and in credible amounts. One exception is Aceh's 50 unit interest, which I expect will get rationalized to some sensible number when it's time to sign an actual contract. Details on who signed the framework agreements and for how many units are actually available scattered in various media articles.

And yes, Indonesian Aerospace's production capacity is a bottleneck. On the other hand this is a small simple plane, the production line could be expanded, the number of shifts doubled, and well, deliveries will be staggered over a period of ten years anyway, not all at once. Even if we assume an initial order of 75 units total, delivering 8 units per year should be possible.

The N-219 is a sensible project with a good chance of moderate success. Some media hype is understandable.

From my position, I would be concerned about attempting to scale up production too much. If there are currently 75 orders either booked or expected over the next decade, but the work force and production facilities get scaled up to permit producing 150+ in that time frame, there could be significant down time between production runs which could lead to a boon/bust production cycle and the need to recruit and train a new work force for each production run. Aside from all the potential costs for that, there would also be the need to cover the costs associated with expanding the physical plant/infrastructure.

Having said that, the order numbers could increase as nations within the region might need to start replacing existing Twin Otter-like aircraft capabilities.

I would be very interested to see/read a datasheet (in English) on the aircraft, as well as what the aeromedical and maritime patrol fitouts might be.

 

[Ahmad]

Do you know the amount of missiles ordered? If its only a small number like 24 or 48, its not enough to arm the F-16C/Ds and the NASAMS.


Sounds great, but they dont give the details about the orders and costumers.
And even if contracts are really signed, by airlines not close to bankruptcy, until now the production capacity of IPTN is maximum 4-6 fixed wing aircrafts a year.

I dont remember the amount as the budget doesnt talk about missile numbers but amount of money, but yes I believe it might be still around 36 missile as has been reported by some news like this one: Indonesia dapat izin beli 36 unit peluru kendali AIM-120C-7 AMRAAM - ANTARA News. I believe it will be gradually ordered so we might see another order for this missile happening in the future. Talking about initial small amount of missile I think it is due to budget constrain. Our armed force is also not yet conditioned to be ready for full scale of war with another country, thats why the amount of high caliber ammunition and rocket are still minimal, PT Pindad criticizes TNI for that. Another example like TNI order of Rhan 122 rocket from PT DI which is only around 75 missile....LOL.

Even Palestinian can launch a rocket to Israel in the scale on thousands not hundreds within a week, and the war happens within a very small area. Our Armed force are using those high caliber of ammunition like bomb and rocket only for practice only. And its all related to our military doctrine, they view the opportunity of large scale of war with another country is minimal, but I think this kind of thinking is going to change as Natuna island become militarized, it means they start to think about Threat from The North more seriously now. It is also good for Pindad as more order to come.

About PT Dirgantara N 219 order, It will be bought by Pelita Air Service which is another state owned companies and Aceh Province. Talking about PT DI maximum capacity, there will be more automation system on the production as has been said by PT DI Directors. He said that the automation system will add the production into 25 per year in existing factory (Bandung factory) and there is a plan to build another factory in Kertajati,West Java or Lampung province. Aceh province contract also requires some condition, one of the condition need to be fulfilled is to have another production facility in Aceh, including maintenance facility. I think it is also good to have facility in Aceh so there will be more nationalism feeling exist in Aceh people as they see that their province is included in high tech production of the country.

 

[Ahmad]

From my position, I would be concerned about attempting to scale up production too much. If there are currently 75 orders either booked or expected over the next decade, but the work force and production facilities get scaled up to permit producing 150+ in that time frame, there could be significant down time between production runs which could lead to a boon/bust production cycle and the need to recruit and train a new work force for each production run. Aside from all the potential costs for that, there would also be the need to cover the costs associated with expanding the physical plant/infrastructure.

Having said that, the order numbers could increase as nations within the region might need to start replacing existing Twin Otter-like aircraft capabilities.

I would be very interested to see/read a datasheet (in English) on the aircraft, as well as what the aeromedical and maritime patrol fitouts might be.

They already got 75 orders even though the plane hasnt yet been certified. I guess (hopefully) there will be another 100 order coming from domestic or regional demand once the plane has been successfully certified by Indonesian authorities. They plan to get certified in the end of 2018. There are also interest from Turkey and Mexico for that airplane. For that nations, there will be assembling facility there according to what I read, using their Aerospace companies facility so that PT DI will only focuses on making parts for them. It is good to have such cooperation like that so there will be not too much pressure on PT DI production facility while in the same time opening big market in Turkey and Mexico. The level of cooperation then can be further enhanced by giving those Aircraft companies permit to sell the plane on their respective continents, which is Europe and America once FAA License is taken by N 219.

The automation system will be inserted to the production facility if they see that their expectation meets with the real market demand. And we will only can see whether the automation system is really needed by seeing the demand in the beginning of 2019 when they get the national certification as plan. As I said if there are another 75 or even 100 order so it means the production should be increase significantly and no need to worry much about burst and boon production since there will be enough plane to produce, and also dont forget about N 245 which is also currently being design to compete with ATR. This type of airplane seems to have huge market in our domestic market.

One thing needs to be prepared is the financing scheme. I read some where saying that Government will give credit export for PT Dirgantara, and how about for our own domestic market.....? If our state own bank give good financing for PT DI domestic customers so there will be a good chance for the program to compete with Twin Otter, inshaALLAH.

 

[Ananda]

Menhan Pastikan Negosiasi MoU Pesawat Tempur KFX/IFX Tetap Lanjut

This article just another example on why as I have mentioned times and times again..to treat anything that come from Indonesian Mindef and Media carefully.

Political influences now run deep in Indonesian media..thus what's real and what's exagerations also now circulated daily.
For DI, look they are making progress, but be realistic..DI is not a healthy and stable aero business yet. N219 is simple aircraft, that still within DI capability to developed. However to mass produce, that's another matter that has to be based on DI's real financial capabilities.

I still don't know how the term of payment those order for N219 will be transacted in real contracts. DI did not have tons of cash to start up initial production with out real cash from 'real' customers coming in.
That's why DI need constant injections from Government, due their limited working capital resources. Many local 'analyst' ask State Owned Banks to give 'soft' loans to DI..well those Banks run real business, and they will not provide line financing..until DI proved to be viable aero business on long run..and 'again' DI track record so far not encouraging on that area to convince financial industry on backing them on purely commercial side.

Simply able to design and run working prototype is not mean your business can run smoothly..N219 still has more run to proved it's viability, now people in DI already talk on another prototype projects of N245.

In short..Many projects under this administrations talk much..but when come back to 'real' money to back their projects..well not all of them have enough funding yet..
There's reasons why civil aero business in this world now run by duo Boeing and Airbus..not 'only' because they have matured tech..but also they have tons of cash to influences order from market.

This is always the problem of DI from Habibie era until now..they simply have limited working capital to backed all their projects, and run back to government for further injections..instead depend on their own business flow..
They have to proved to market as reliable contractor before market trust their money on buying DI projects. Short on that..then DI will continue depends on Government injections to survive..
Not a good sign on a healthy business.

 

[Ahmad]

Menhan Pastikan Negosiasi MoU Pesawat Tempur KFX/IFX Tetap Lanjut

This article just another example on why as I have mentioned times and times again..to treat anything that come from Indonesian Mindef and Media carefully.

Political influences now run deep in Indonesian media..thus what's real and what's exagerations also now circulated daily.
For DI, look they are making progress, but be realistic..DI is not a healthy and stable aero business yet. N219 is simple aircraft, that still within DI capability to developed. However to mass produce, that's another matter that has to be based on DI's real financial capabilities.

I still don't know how the term of payment those order for N219 will be transacted in real contracts. DI did not have tons of cash to start up initial production with out real cash from 'real' customers coming in.
That's why DI need constant injections from Government, due their limited working capital resources. Many local 'analyst' ask State Owned Banks to give 'soft' loans to DI..well those Banks run real business, and they will not provide line financing..until DI proved to be viable aero business on long run..their track record so far not encouraging on that area.

Simply able to design and run working prototype is not mean your business can run smoothly..N219 still has more run to proved it's viability, now people in DI already talk on another prototype projects of N245.

In short..Many projects under this administrations talk much..but when come back to 'real' money to back their projects..well not all of them have enough funding yet..
There's reasons why civil aero business in this world now run by duo Boeing and Airbus..not 'only' because they have matured tech..but also they have tons of cash to influences order from market.

This is always the problem of DI from Habibie era until now..they simply have limited working capital to backed all their projects, and run back to government for further injections..instead depend on their own business flow..
They have to proved to market as reliable contractor before market trust their money on buying DI projects. Short on that..then DI will continue depends on Government injections to survive..
Not a good sign on a healthy business.

Ananda, DI is not a healthy and stable business from my perspective is due to its debt which is a heritage of DI 1995-2000. Those debt exist because the huge investment PT DI put on N 250 project become useless as the project is stopped due to lack of financing, although they already flied two prototype. N 2130 project is also stopped. They have good vision at that time, we know it by seeing how successful ATR is, its competitor. Thanks to the IMF for that. And now in 2018 we see KFX/IFX project is finance 60 percent by South Korea government. How absurd IMF at that time, to cut the government financing in the time where the project have already made and flied two prototype.

That huge debt also makes DI run business from cash taken from day to day business due to unwillingness of banks to provide DI with financing. We cannot blame DI new management for that. I believe it should be solved by erasing those debt first and Government should do that instead of helping DI vaguely. We must make DI become bankable again.

The second thing that makes DI not professional is maybe "a corruption." I dont intend to make some false acquisition but last year losses of PT DI (if subsidiaries companies included it is still profit) comes from very weird reason. DI is forced to pay fine due to late production. Something fishy coming up on the contract that make the fine figure is "very amazing." Even the fine is more expensive than the plane itself.

The third thing is due to "cultural problem" that makes DI is not as professional as world class aircraft manufacturer. Not punctual in production, second class marketing, and so on is the cultural thing I see on PT DI. But nevertheless there is still hope as we know that since 2012 until 2016 PT DI can score profit, and they do it while being financially in difficulty (huge debt) as I mentioned earlier. Only last year they are unable to book profit due to that weirdness that I have said which is a combination of crazy fine and late production, something that people can assume as already been planned to be late from the beginning. Thats why DI director is replaced last year. (DI also has two subsidiaries PT Nusantara Turbine and Propulsion (NTP) and IPTN North America Inc, in total PT DI scores profit in 2017)

And now government has replaced DI director and put a very successful one on its top leadership, the person who change "old and messy " PT Pelni into a profitable company. I believe with this man. Many times we see that changing the leader lead into changing the culture, like happening in PT KAI and PT Pelni.

We can see huge leap in PT KAI for instant and not only it change its employee culture but also changing its customers behaviour. They make something which is very simple but seems to be very difficult to apply for so long which is sterilizing the station, and importing many cheap Japanese second hand train. And changing PT DI I believe is also not as difficult as people might thing but somehow DI former leader is not doing it due to several reason like lack of vision and belief. By seeing DI old website during Budi leadership you will understand that this guy is some how doesnt have a vision to make DI as world class aircraft manufacturer. Its marketing is also not that good, thats why they still rely their marketing on third party during that time.

 

[Ahmad]

I think Singapore land based Aster System which is ordered in 2013 is planned to defend their city from Indonesian rocket. The time of contract I believe is a respond of Indonesian rocket test (RX 420) conducted in 2009. Six Singapore frigate also use Aster so their defense is a bit too much I think by considering how small that city state is. Look at this video 8 years ago :

And now the rocket has been developed into RX 450 and has been launched successfully in 2015

And now Lapan has seriously prepared RX 550 rocket, I hope all of difficulty faced by Lapan engineers so far will be solved and we can see this rocket flying hopefully. The rocket has been prepared since 2010 I believe and something that make this rocket still undergoing static test is its nozzle material which is not strong enough to withstand heat.If we can solve the problem it means we will improve our metallurgy knowledge thus not only improve our rocket caliber but also give us some step forward toward developing jet engine.


RX 550

 

[Ahmad]

This year, Dirgantara Indonesia expects profit to reach US$ 12 million
30 January 2018 04:23 PM Company: []
Rp. 0 0 (0%)


JAKARTA - PT Dirgantara Indonesia (Persero) estimates consolidated profit growth will double or equivalent to US$ 12 million this year, while profit last year valued at US$ 5.4 million. The company is optimistic that the target can be achieved because of the contract orders from several institutions in the country last year.

This year, Dirgantara Indonesia expects profit to reach US$ 12 million - IDNFinancials


Let's see what will happen with this new management this year. Last year profit is still in green though due to contribution of two subsidiaries namely PT Nusantara Turbine and Propulsion (NTP) and IPTN North America Inc.

 

[Ananda]

Ahmad, in one of your posts you talked on DI increase production capacity, interest from Turkey and Mexico...well it's still interests on N219..but again every potential takers will see on how DI begin their production effectively or not.

Face it..DI production track record is not strong and still is..this that need to be fix first..before DI talking big on investing in new facilities or new projects. Prove to the market that they can handle N219 project effectively, shown the market they are changing..don't talk much on what they want to do..

So far many strategics projects in Indonesia are good in talking to media, but not on implementation..the present admin full of ministers and officials that talk much in media..but even people on ministry of finances has to work hard to get many of those officials in other ministries back to reality of budgets.

Back to DI, their task is simple..forgot their history..but work to regain trusts from the market by improving their track record..
On matter of debts on Habibie era..those are already reversed as Government Investments. The debts is not the problem that no commercial financier want to provide line to DI, but again DI own track record. Change that track record, is the only way market will trust DI.

 

[Ahmad]

 

[tonnyc]

@Todjaeger
The above picture was IIRC a screenshot of IAe's N-219 webpage from some time ago. The IAe website has been revamped and the information now is scattered under several frames and thus not as convenient as the above. The medical evac config and the ISR config are not a priority for IAe. IIRC IAe sometimes mention them as possible future configs along with an amphibious config, but really it's too early to be offering those.

Additional data from IAe's website: range with 19 passengers is 480 nm. Basically a commercial passenger aircraft config as opposed to a cargo transport config. It's basically designed to be a lower cost alternative to the Twin Otter. It's other major competition is the Chinese Y-12.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Ahmad, in one of your posts you talked on DI increase production capacity, interest from Turkey and Mexico...well it's still interests on N219..but again every potential takers will see on how DI begin their production effectively or not.

Face it..DI production track record is not strong and still is..this that need to be fix first..before DI talking big on investing in new facilities or new projects. Prove to the market that they can handle N219 project effectively, shown the market they are changing..don't talk much on what they want to do..

So far many strategics projects in Indonesia are good in talking to media, but not on implementation..the present admin full of ministers and officials that talk much in media..but even people on ministry of finances has to work hard to get many of those officials in other ministries back to reality of budgets.

Back to DI, their task is simple..forgot their history..but work to regain trusts from the market by improving their track record..
On matter of debts on Habibie era..those are already reversed as Government Investments. The debts is not the problem that no commercial financier want to provide line to DI, but again DI own track record. Change that track record, is the only way market will trust DI.

Building new facilities outside Bandara Husein Sastranegara is indeed a waste of money and time. In the nineties IPTN had all together 15.800 employees, with most of them in Bandung. Now IPTN has only a couple thousands of employees, producing only a handful of aircrafts a year, besides aircraft maintenance, manufacturing of Airbus and Eurcopter components and some other products. So its obvious that the current facility in Bandung is big enough for the next decades. The only things which are needed are some renovations and maybe some replacement of broken/obsolete equipment.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

@Todjaeger
The above picture was IIRC a screenshot of IAe's N-219 webpage from some time ago. The IAe website has been revamped and the information now is scattered under several frames and thus not as convenient as the above. The medical evac config and the ISR config are not a priority for IAe. IIRC IAe sometimes mention them as possible future configs along with an amphibious config, but really it's too early to be offering those.

Additional data from IAe's website: range with 19 passengers is 480 nm. Basically a commercial passenger aircraft config as opposed to a cargo transport config. It's basically designed to be a lower cost alternative to the Twin Otter. It's other major competition is the Chinese Y-12.

The N219 is a promising aircraft, perfect for our country with good potentials for export. Its also the right product to replace the N22s and early production NC-212s of our armed forces.

I really hope that IPTN get the full support of our government and that they can streamline the production after certification.


Here some news about the KFX-project.

Is South Korea’s future fighter jet partnership with Indonesia falling apart?
By: Jeff Jeong   1 day ago
KF-X fighter jet development partnership between South Korea and Indonesia is in tatters, according to defense sources in South Korea and Indonesian media reports.

Indonesia is said to have complaints about its contracts with South Koreaover technical benefits and export license of the fighter, dubbed IF-X in Indonesia.

Indonesia, which is a key arms export partner with South Korea, is the sole foreign partner to fund 20 percent of the $7.5 billion KF-X project.

Complete article at Is South Korea’s future fighter jet partnership with Indonesia falling apart?


So its seems that this is the reason why Indonesia are not willing to pay the required $130 million, because the IPTN engineers are not allowed access to many new KF-X technologies.

 

[Ahmad]

I believe it will be more easy to cooperate with Europian than USA but the disadventage of cooperating with European is the fact that European is till not as advance as US on RAM and STEALTH technology.

4 cores technology are not given even to South Korea and the research of this technologies will be conducted independently with European help.

I hope Indonesian IFX is not a down grade version of KFX. I hope this program to continue though.

And talking about Indonesia Russia relation is not something that technical as the Defense News suggested, it is merely about producer and customer relationship. No need to worry too much as we are a neutral country.

 

[Ananda]

Indonesia only put 20% of development cost. Thus from begining Indonesia only has Junior Partner Rights. Thus as Junior Partner DI as Indonesian manufacturer only got some parts manufacturing but also have final assembly line for Indonesian order.

As for export from begining any potential export has to work out with KAI as senior partner. Now this administration want to renegotiate including exporting rights on it's own..

Well if you want to put like that..then put more money..they want to have same rights like in CN 235. However CN-235 is a fifty-fifty JV. IPTN (at that time) has same rights with CASA for CN-235 project..not as Junior Partner. You want more equal right in the partnership..then put more money in..

That's why I said, this renegotiation on KFX project is more politically motivated..This administration wants to be seen domestically can get better deal compared to original contract. Well again, if they can get some more concession from ROK..than it's good..but has to be realistically that Indonesia will never get same rights in this KFX/IFX project like in CN-235..Simply because Indonesia in KFX project is junior partner.

 

[Ananda]

Gov't Plans to Buy 5 New Hercules Military Transporters: Defense Minister

5 C-130J this minister claim are in talked with US. He claim that he already open official talked with US Defence Secretary Mattis recently.

Well no surprise that in the end TNI-AU sided to get J series. Afterall it's the plane series they already familiar with.
While A-400M seems still in running process, albeit using SOE budget and not defense ones.

Still, I can't help thinking that some of the AF brass keep hoping that the budget for A-400M somehow can be switch to more J's..

 

[alexsanjaya]

Still, I can't help thinking that some of the AF brass keep hoping that the budget for A-400M somehow can be switch to more J's..

With the looming trade war against EU?! I strongly doubt the A-400 will get inked any time soon. And beside C-130J is far better option anyway.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

With the looming trade war against EU?! I strongly doubt the A-400 will get inked any time soon. And beside C-130J is far better option anyway.

What has the trade war between US vs Canada+China+Europe+Mexico to do with the A400M?

And why is the C-130J a far better option?

 

[Ananda]

I think he means potential trade dispute between Indonesia (and potentially Malaysia) with EU over Palm Oil regulation that both Indonesia and Malaysia see as unfair non tariff barier to Palm Oil.

Both Indonesia and Malaysia already complain that there are others vegetable oil that give more deforestration impact than Palm Oil, but not getting EU ban. Considering Palm Oil and it's derivatives products are important export commodity for both countries..some tit a tat trade disputes potentially can happen with EU. This some claim can have adverse effect to Airbus products sells in Indonesia and Malaysia.

As C-130J better option for TNI-AU, I do agree on some degree. C-130 series is already well operated asset with TNI-AU, and operating next gen C-130 is easier learning curve both in operational and maintenance.

Yes A-400M has 75% more capacity then C-130J, but it also come with 'orphan' engine (engine that only used by A-400, thus with much less quantity in market), which eventough considered more advance and powerfull, but also is being considered less proven.

Still, for heavier transport, what choices there are in Market.
Forget AN-70, Ukraine seems still going nowhere with that aircraft even now come out with turbofan variance.
IL-76 ?, that will be more headache for TNI-AU operational and maintenance.
C-17 ?, Well we already missed the boat on that.
Kawasaki C-2 ? Personally I liked that plane, and it's in same catagory with A-400M. However, I still don't know where the Japanese initiatives on marketing this in International market. Seems so far Japanese more interested to market P1 and US2.
Only left unproven Chinese Y-20..and I don't think TNI-AU should even condidered that..

Anyway A-400M if procurred, will related to commercial support to DI. That's why, the budget come from SOE Ministry and not from Defense Ministry.

Add:
Just edit U2 to US-2..Japanese don't have U2..only BONO have U2..He,he..
On US-2..heard that Japanese still try to market US-2 on the planned amphibious sq. Seems they are going to get export market for US2 with India.

Will be interested if C-130J being procured, considering US-2 used the same engine.

 

[alexsanjaya]

What has the trade war between US vs Canada+China+Europe+Mexico to do with the A400M?

Canada, China, Europe, Mexico?! I'm was referring to Indonesia + Malaysia vs EU

And why is the C-130J a far better option?

Already answered by @Ananda in above / previous comment (thus saving me from typing)