- Why exactly is Indonesia thinking of backing out of KAI KF-X?
Indonesia is thinking of backing out the program according to my opinion is due to the fact that US doesnt want to let Indonesian Fighter Experiment (IFX) having RAM (Radar Absorbing Material) and internal weapon bays. IFX will be KFX block 1 and KFX own by Korea will be KFX block 2. There is news written by Flight Global talking about this leak information from sources on South Korea.
But until Today Indonesia is still on the program and we just want to renegotiate. It needs to be renegotiated because Indonesia as a partner is not equally treated by South Korea. Why dont we get those STEALTH fiture like them....?
We also need to have more TOT since we have contributed so far and promise to buy at least 50, even the latest news said that Indonesia is committed to buy 80 planes (flight global). So not only we have contributed engineers and money, we also committed to buy those plane until 80, it means we deserve more
Talking about US part on this issue, US needs to think that if US wants us to be sided with them in US vs China world. We need to have those STEALTH fiture in order for us to balance China in South China Sea. I dont know why US dont treat us just like his buddies who have a common rival.
There is also this reason, I believe it has in both parties, Indonesia and South Korea :
Those unequal treatment make some Minister of Defense officials who is against this program since the beginning due to its closeness with foreign aircraft maker some kind of reason to terminate the program. Thats why they
"forgot" to pay which is not a false of Indonesian government as a whole but only ministry of defense false, thats why our finance minister scold ministry of defense for that.
In the end there is still a genuine reason backed by professional people in Minister of Defense and Armed forces to have equally treatment on the project as I said earlier. So we need those RAM, internal weapon bays and "proper" Transfer of Technology.
It is the reason of why Indonesia is still wanting to have this program progresses, so thats why we try to renegotiate rather than just pulling out :
Indonesia is backing KFX IFX is due to the dream to build its own fighter jet. Indonesia actually has made two research on LAPAN on designing fighter jet. You can try to find the picture on google by typing LFX (Lapan Fighter Experiment). As a big nation, number 4 biggest based on population, number 3 biggest democracy in the world, big land mass, there is something in Indonesian mind that is similar like China and India, which is we want to be a big nation, a nation that can build modern thing like tank, missile, jet fighter, satellite and so on. It is politically correct to make one, people will support, so there should be no worries on the finance if the leader is really serious to realize this plan.
So the reason of why we back KFX/IFX is due to that reason. As you know we have sent around 82 engineers to back this program, we also have sent around 5 Indonesian fighter pilot into our university to learn about how to make a plane so that they can be a test pilot of KFX/IFX. There will be one prototype that will be own by Indonesian Aerospace. By having around 5 test pilot specializing on jet fighter means that we will try to develop the plane further by ourselves or even make another one like continuing LFX design and make it into a real jet fighter. Of course building a jet fighter alone can be very expensive, I rather see that we will cooperate even in the future, except there is a very ambitious leader that we have in the future.
If you see our MEF (Minimum Essential Forces) for jet fighter there are around 7 new fighter squadrons that should be created before 2024. Of course it sounds to be quite optimistic if we talk about 2024 time frame. I rather see we will just replace older squadrons with a new type of fighter which are F 5 Tiger and Hawk 200 until 2024 due to budget constrain. In a period of 2024-2035 there will be more budget for our defense in my opinion as I believe that at least we will keep growing our economy into 5-7 % for the next 10 years that will make our GDP to be near or even exceed 2 trillion USD near 2030 inshaALLAH.
Those 7 new squadrons should be filled with a deathly fighter (5 generation) with higher participation and contribution from our local defense sector industry. It should be done like that because filling 7 new squadron with 5 generation fighter is not cheap, we talk about billions of dollar. So those billions of dollar should add value into our economy and industry as well, so we dont just importing those jet. By having KFX IFX it means there is Indonesia design participation on it, there will be part like wing that will be made here, there will be local assembling, there will be locally upgrading, and we also can make customization like in IFF and some avionics like cockpit. So there will be also Indonesian electronics industry that can participate like PT LEN and others.
7 new squadron means more than 100 jet fighter, and since we have a law that prohibit buying foreign defense product if we can produce that at home, it means KFX IFX will (potentially) fully fulfill those need without other foreign aircraft participation. And Talking about having 5 generation fighter within 2024 above is something that is necessary. Even we have already acquired Su 35 which is 4.5 generation before 2020.
I also want to add something here, our stake in KFX IFX is only 20 % financially but in term of design it is more than that, thats why our engineers number are higher which is 30 percent. During the first phase of development 2011-2014 there are 37 Indonesian participating on research, resulting in C 103 design, On that period there is no KAI engineers contribution since KAI just start participating from 2016 when they got the contract. We just cooperate with South Korea DAPA to make C 103 design.
Having a jet fighter that has our own contribution on design and stake (20%) also means that there will be less opposition from parliament and people to acquire a huge number of jet fighter (7 squadrons). Unlike India, we dont have powerful enemy in South East Asia region, yes there is China but the relationship is not as savire as India vs China. There will be some kind of value added into the economy, industry, and nation image if we acquire a jet fighter that we have contributed and has stake on it. So having KFX IFX is needed to fulfill our previous plan to have at least 7 new fighter squadrons.
And talking about having 7 jet fighter squadrons within 2030-2035 time frame I rather see it as quite necessary due to geopolitical reason. China will be very powerful at that time, USA will be less powerful (due to its debt and trade deficit with China). And those gap should be filled by Indonesia, the only regional power in South East Asia, to create balance on the region.
We also should understand that China I believe will be more integrated into South East Asia region due to its nine dash line map with those man made island will have already been finished, developed, and become China modern military base during that time. China naval power, including their aircraft carrier (I bet there will be seven in 2030) will be patrolling near our Natuna island and into our international water. We should be ready for that "new world landscape."
