..... or we speed up the build schedule for the SEA1000 which appears to be around 30 months between commissionings down to 18 months between.
Without getting into the whole Hugh White comments (personally can't stand the guy), it is interesting to look at the proposed gaps between commissioning of each Collins replacement.
On the one hand 30mths might seem a bit long and 18mths between commissioning of each boat a bit optimistic, it's interesting to look at Japan's production cycle of the Soryu class boats (or drum beat as I believe it is called).
Yes on the one hand they commission a new Soryu every 12 months, usually in 'March' of each year (the drum beats every year at the same time).
But in fact they have 'two' yards alternating production, each yard is producing a new Soryu every 24 months.
Could we produce a new sub every 24mths? Maybe, but the problem is then the size of the overall fleet.
We have a plan to have 12 subs, the Japanese on the other hand are increasing their fleet from 16 to 22 boats in commission at any one time.
Japan having a larger fleet can continue to have two yards producing a new boat every two years, keep them in commission for approx. 22 years and have a 'continuous' build process until the end of time (they may eventually increase the fleet size, but it will continue on and on).
For us here in Oz, the Government is no doubt caught between a rock and a hard place, firstly increase the size of the fleet from 6 to 12 boats and also at the same time introduce a 'continuous' built program.
If we can produce them at a shorter 'drum beat' then there will be significant gaps between the end of one class and the introduction of the next class, boom and bust, valley of death, etc, etc.
Or on the other hand, if the goal is to have a continuous build program, then the gap between commissioning between each boat has to be at least 30mths.
Gives you a headache thinking about it!! It's a no win situation for the Government.