North Korean Military.

[the concerned]

Unfortunately the South Korean president is wrong. He only has authority if the North Korean's attack on their soil which is not what they are threatening. They are threatening a US base in Guam so the US would have the right to respond how they see fit. Not being rude but the last thing anyone needs right now is a week president does he honestly think that if the North Koreans attack Guam that they are just going to sit there and wait for the US to retaliate. More likely they will attack South Korea as at least to start with they get to dictate the pace.

 

[gazzzwp]

Is it possible that NK has recently received technical assistance or even equipment for it's missile program from China or Russia? If so is such assistance coming from covert Government programs or could it be illegal activity from Russian and Chinese companies? Or could it be coming from 3rd parties such as Iran (originating from China or Russia)?

It just seems highly unlikely that a nation sanctioned to the hilt has all of this capability to build ICBM's, short and medium range, anti-ship and battle field missiles.

It does not appear that this aspect has been explored on the forum yet.

 

[John Fedup]

I think it is important to consider that NK has been working on missile technologies for a very long time so it is not unreasonable to assume they have a significant domestic capability now. Certainly NK received help during along the way but they probably don't require it now. On the nuclear side, there is simply no advantage for Russia or China to help out. Pakistan is another story.

 

[STURM]

I dare to say that if the US attacks NK 1st w/o SK's approval, SK may switch sides & attack/detain US forces at bases on its territory & its Navy

Let's be realistic here. The scenario you presented won't happen.

Not being rude but the last thing needs right now is a week president does he honestly think that if the North Koreans attack Guam that they are just going to sit there and wait for the US to retaliate.

The last thing they also need is a gung ho President miscalculating and starting a war - before all diplomatic means were exhausted - that could have been prevented. A war that will largely effect the Korean peninsular.

 

[Toblerone]

Is it possible that NK has recently received technical assistance or even equipment for it's missile program from China or Russia? If so is such assistance coming from covert Government programs or could it be illegal activity from Russian and Chinese companies? Or could it be coming from 3rd parties such as Iran (originating from China or Russia)?

It just seems highly unlikely that a nation sanctioned to the hilt has all of this capability to build ICBM's, short and medium range, anti-ship and battle field missiles.

It does not appear that this aspect has been explored on the forum yet.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/14/world/asia/north-korea-missiles-ukraine-factory.html

Some evidence points to a Ukraine company. It would also be logical, more logical that China or Russia helping N.Korea attain nukes, that's for sure.

 

[John Fedup]

Interesting piece of news. This appears to be criminal assistance not state. Can NK readily duplicate this Ukrainian technology without further assistance?

As for nuclear assistance from China or Russia, how is that in their interest now? I don't think it is at all.

 

[gazzzwp]

As for nuclear assistance from China or Russia, how is that in their interest now? I don't think it is at all.

To tie the US up militarily perhaps? It will inevitably backfire because the US will just take the opportunity to race ahead in terms of military tech. Necessity is the mother of invention.

 

[colay1]

Would KJU still have ambitions of using force to unite Korea, as unlikely as that seems? On the chance that he does, having nukes would have major coercive power that only a US nuke umbrella could counter. Same goes for Japan. Neither would embrace nukes IMO.

 

[John Fedup]

To tie the US up militarily perhaps? It will inevitably backfire because the US will just take the opportunity to race ahead in terms of military tech. Necessity is the mother of invention.

Providing nuclear technology to NK in the hopes of tying up the US military, a blip on the US commitment scale in return for having a flakey neighbour armed with nukes? Crappy deal IMHO not to mention the negative PR but perhaps it seemed like a good idea at the time....sort of like getting rid of Saddam.

 

[StingrayOZ]

Providing nuclear technology to NK in the hopes of tying up the US military, a blip on the US commitment scale in return for having a flakey neighbour armed with nukes? Crappy deal IMHO not to mention the negative PR but perhaps it seemed like a good idea at the time....sort of like getting rid of Saddam.

If anything NK was the source of a lot of rocketry and nuclear information that has gone to other states. I don't believe Pakistan has helped North Korea in nuclear weapons research (all of Pakistan and Irans nuclear weapons are uranium based, not like NK Plutonium based weapons). Egypt sold some scuds to North Korea in the 1980's and they have been basically able to improve them since then. Throw in some Russian help along the way (which like most Russian help was probably 1 step forward 2 steps back, and more about finding about what they had) and here we are. Some states have probably traded information with NK about rockets, but in many cases, it was more about buying or trading for NK information rather than giving it to them.

NK doesn't really need heaps of technical help. They need resources and money, particularly to buy things they don't have or don't have in quality. Iran needed weapons so purchased many off them and funded some of the development.

Arguably they are now at a point where they just need time.

 

[ASSAIL]

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/14/world/asia/north-korea-missiles-ukraine-factory.html

Some evidence points to a Ukraine company. It would also be logical, more logical that China or Russia helping N.Korea attain nukes, that's for sure.

I'd suggest it's more likely to be Iran, after all they're allies.

 

[swerve]

Wrong way round. N. Korea has been an exporter of ballistic missiles & the technology for a long time, & Iran is one of its customers. Iranian missiles are based on N. Korean designs.

N. Korea had Scuds & the like & is reckoned to have begun working on its own versions when Iran was still a US ally. The first launch of a reverse engineered one I've found reported was in 1984.

Given the way Ukraine's run it's entirely possible that a Ukrainian company could do such a thing without export permission. The right well-stuffed envelopes in the right hands . . .

Whether Ukraine is friendly with North Korea isn't really relevant in those circumstances.

 

[Ranger25]

I dare to say that if the US attacks NK 1st w/o SK's approval, SK may switch sides & attack/detain US forces at bases on its territory & its Navy & AF may help defend NK against the US & Japan, thus avoiding destruction of Seoul by NK "Damocles Sword" just 35 mi. away. Combined & coordinated, both Koreas (not to mention PRC & RF) can give a bloody nose to anyone! That sobering possibility shouldn't be overlooked by hawks in Japan & on this side of the Pacific.

Utter nonsense and I'll founded speculation

The US and ROK militaries have VERY close and well practiced ties at every level.

The US does not currently, or would not conduct Kinetic actions in the Pennisula without that same level of close coordination with the ROKs.

KIm's saber rattling seems to have cooled so what after not getting what he wants (as he generally has in the past , grain, energy etc).

IMO I don't see combined Kinetic action against NK unless new sanctions and other diplomatic efforts completely fail, which they haven't yet.

 

[Toblerone]

Given the way Ukraine's run it's entirely possible that a Ukrainian company could do such a thing without export permission. The right well-stuffed envelopes in the right hands . . .

Whether Ukraine is friendly with North Korea isn't really relevant in those circumstances.

If those sources are correct and it was Ukraine (a ukrainian company) that provided some crucial technological assistance to N.Korea then it is interesting to be reminded that Ukraine (the government) provided a defunct aircraft carrier to a chinese company, which was used to really jumpstart China's carrier ambitions. Heh. :

Just a hopefully interesting observation, not much to take away from this. Just ex-soviet tech leaking from rusty seams.

 

[swerve]

Ukraine's pretty well broke, & has been since the USSR broke up.The government & companies are desperate for any money they can get their hands on.

 

[STURM]

To tie the US up militarily perhaps?It will inevitably backfire because the US will just take the opportunity to race ahead in terms of military tech

China and Russia are not providing nuclear - state sanctioned or otherwise - assistance to North Korea. If China - which by the way is rapidly closing the technological gap with the U.S. - wanted to ''tie'' up the U.S. military there are other things it could do. Providing nuclear assistance to North Korea could backfire badly and would bring no benefits to the Chinese.

Would KJU still have ambitions of using force to unite Korea, as unlikely as that seems?

I'm sure he does still harbour such ambitions but he's also aware that it's just not possible at the moment. His priority now is to strengthen his position, which is exactly what he's doing.

that Ukraine (the government) provided a defunct aircraft carrier to a chinese company, which was used to really jumpstart China's carrier ambitions.

Back in the 1990's or the early 2000's it was reported that the Chinese had bought a Ukrainian cruise missile factory and shipped it lock, stock and barrel back home.

There is always the possibility that Ukrainian companies might be illegally assisting the North Koreans but it's doubtful given that the Ukrainian government which is so eager or desperate to ingratiate itself with the West as insurance against the Russians, wouldn't allow this to happen. The question really is how much external help do the North Koreans really need for them to complete what they're doing? My guess is that external help or the lack of it is less of a concern for them and that what really worries them is a shortage of hard cash to fund their activities.

 

[Tsavo Lion]

Unfortunately the South Korean president is wrong. He only has authority if the North Korean's attack on their soil which is not what they are threatening. They are threatening a US base in Guam so the US would have the right to respond how they see fit.

Article 2 of the mutual defense treaty between the U.S. and the Republic of Korea signed at the end of the Korean War in 1953 says that “The Parties will consult together whenever … either of the Parties is threatened by external armed attack,” and “will take suitable measures in consultation and agreement.”
Moon said the U.S. remains obligated to first consult with the South, but analysts cited in an Aug. 20 report in the Washington Examiner said that there is little Seoul can do to stop Trump from authorizing a pre-emptive strike against the North if he does so in the name of protecting the U.S. homeland and its territories. ..
“We have a U.S.-ROK military alliance in which under existing protocols and doctrine military action has to be approved by both presidents.” ..If U.S. intelligence determined the North’s Kim Jong-Un was planning to launch a nuclear weapon at the American mainland, Trump could authorize a pre-emptive strike without the approval of Seoul,.. “If the U.S. president did move unilaterally in a circumstance like that, against the [wishes] of a South Korean president, the U.S.-ROK defense alliance would be over in a heartbeat,..“There will be a war with North Korea over their missile program if they continue trying to hit America with an ICBM. He’s told me that, and I believe him.” As devastating as a second Korean War would be, the commander in chief believes “if thousands die, they’re going to die over there. They’re not going to die over here,”..

So far, The North Koreans have delayed a threatened set of tests that they said would put four missiles into the waters off Guam, not even aiming/targetting the island itself which isn't "the American mainland" by any stretch. NK knows that if it were to attempt to hit any state 1st, in CONUS or not (i.e. AK & HI), NATO Art.5 could be invoked obligating all members to help the US. Those include SSBN armed UK & France. From NYT article:

Mr. Mattis described a situation in which the United States would act without seeking agreement from the South. If American forces in the Pacific detected a missile launch by North Korea toward American or allied soil, “we would take immediate, specific actions to take it down,” he said. ..Among the skeptics of a pre-emptive strike was Stephen K. Bannon, Mr. Trump’s chief strategist, who was fired on Friday. Just days before, he had declared in an interview.. that “there is no military solution here, they got us.”..“There is no such thing as a surgical strike against North Korea,” Bruce Bennett, a North Korea expert at the RAND Corporation, said in one of its recent publications. “We don’t really know for sure where all their weapons are.’’

Read the whole thing. I argue that Trump is more dangerous & unpredictable than Kim. The hawks can always be counted upon to use sophistic hypotheticals & fabricated intelligence reports "to suit policy" & justify attacking 1st. (If it does happen, NATO (except perhaps the UK) isn't likely to help- recall France objecting the OIF.) Remember the Gulf of Tonkin incident & more recent one in the Arabian Gulf, right before Adm. Fallon had to resign after preventing a war with Iran?

 

[Feanor]

Interesting piece of news. This appears to be criminal assistance not state. Can NK readily duplicate this Ukrainian technology without further assistance?

Ukraine isn't far from a failed state and if they were behaving the way they are now without US support against Russia, they'd be a pariah on the international stage. In a way it's karma that they're leaking missile tech to the DPRK.

Though to be honest the information isn't confirmed as far as I can tell.

 

[StingrayOZ]

Ukraine isn't far from a failed state and if they were behaving the way they are now without US support against Russia, they'd be a pariah on the international stage. In a way it's karma that they're leaking missile tech to the DPRK.

Though to be honest the information isn't confirmed as far as I can tell.

It's not like the Ukraine or Russia had a very extensive program to help the North Koreans. More likely bread crumbs off a table via individuals.

NK are experts at getting stuff. They bought 87 MacDonald Douglas 500 helicopters from the US and armed them by deceiving the US and other countries. They captured an AN/FPS-117. Or a Chinese lumber truck converted to missile carrier. If north Korea could pull one over the US during the cold war, its entirely believable they could deceive Chinese/Russian/Ukrainian authorities.

Really the key technology transfer North Korea getting scud missiles. Which they got from Egypt, but could have gotten from almost a dozen countries through corruption, theft, abduction, black market, there is scud stuff all over the place etc. Most of the successful part of their missile program was based off upgrading scud missiles.

Arguably the most help they got was money, from Iran, but when they are both on the sanctions list, what else is going to happen? Arguably a better policy of dealing with Iran would have seen them not so engaged with North Korea. Easy to say with hindsight.

But Iran wasn't alone, UAE and others have purchased North Korean equipment. UAE was trying to lock in an exclusive deal to keep weapons from going to Iran and Houthi rebels. But $100 million in cash in 2015 would have gone a long way in North Korea.

Why Did the UAE Purchase Weapons From North Korea? | The Diplomat

North Korea is the very definition of rouge. It undermines everyone. Everyone has made bad choices with North Korea.

 

[swerve]

rouge1
ruːʒ/Submit
noun
1.
a red powder or cream used as a cosmetic for colouring the cheeks or lips.
"she wore patches of rouge on her cheeks"
2.
short for jeweller's rouge.
verb
1.
colour with rouge.
"her brightly rouged cheeks"

Sorry, but too many straws lately. I try to suppress it but I couldn't hold it back any longer.

I think you mean "North Korea is the very definition of rogue".